A novel mutation in ANOS1 in a Chinese family with Kallmann syndrome: Case report.

We reported a novel variant in Kallmann syndrome. It not only determines the clinical importance of whole exome sequencing for identification of genetic pathogenic variants, but also enriches the ANOS1 genetic spectrum of CHH patients in Chinese population.

Successful treatment of SARS-CoV-2 in an immunocompromised patient with persistent infection for 245 days: A case report.

Background: Immunocompromised patients receiving B-cell-depleting therapies are at increased risk of persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection, with many experiencing fatal outcomes. We report a successful outcome in a patient with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) on rituximab diagnosed with COVID-19 in July 2020 with persistent infection for over 245 days. Results: The patient received numerous treatment courses for persistent COVID-19 infection, including remdesivir, baricitinib, immunoglobulin and high doses of corticosteroids followed by a prolonged taper due to persistent respiratory symptoms and cryptogenic organizing pneumonia. Her clinical course was complicated by Pseudomonas aeruginosa sinusitis with secondary bacteremia, and cytomegalovirus (CMV) viremia and pneumonitis. SARS-CoV-2 positive RNA samples were extracted from two nasopharyngeal swabs and sequenced using targeted amplicon Next-Generation Sequencing which were analyzed for virus evolution over time. Viral sequencing indicated lineage B.1.585.3 SARS-CoV-2 accumulated Spike protein mutations associated with immune evasion and resistance to therapeutics. Upon slowly decreasing the patient's steroids, she had resolution of her symptoms and had a negative nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 PCR and serum CMV PCR in March 2021. Conclusion: A patient with RA on B-cell depleting therapy developed persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection allowing for virus evolution and had numerous complications, including viral and bacterial co-infections with opportunistic pathogens. Despite intra-host evolution with a more immune evasive SARS-CoV-2 lineage, it was cleared after 245 days with reconstitution of the patient's immune system.

A response playbook for early detection and population surveillance of new SARS-CoV-2 variants in a regional public health laboratory.

BACKGROUND: Timely genomic surveillance is required to inform public health responses to new SARS-CoV-2 variants. However, the processes involved in local genomic surveillance introduce inherent time constraints. The Regional Innovative Public Health Laboratory in Chicago developed and employed a genomic surveillance response playbook for the early detection and surveillance of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. METHODS: The playbook outlines modifications to sampling strategies, laboratory workflows, and communication processes based on the emerging variant's predicted viral characteristics, observed public health impact in other jurisdictions and local community risk level. The playbook outlines procedures for implementing and reporting enhanced and accelerated genomic surveillance, including supplementing whole genome sequencing (WGS) with variant screening by quantitative PCR (qPCR). RESULTS: The ability of the playbook to improve the response to an emerging variant was tested for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1. Increased submission of clinical remnant samples from local hospital laboratories enabled detection of a new variant at an average of 1.4% prevalence with 95% confidence rather than 3.5% at baseline. Genotyping qPCR concurred with WGS lineage assignments in 99.9% of 1541 samples with results by both methods, and was more sensitive, providing lineage results in 90.4% of 1833 samples rather than 85.1% for WGS, while significantly reducing the time to lineage result. CONCLUSIONS: The genomic surveillance response playbook provides a structured, stepwise, and data-driven approach to responding to emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. These pre-defined processes can serve as a template for other genomic surveillance programs to streamline workflows and expedite the detection and public health response to emerging variants. Based on the processes piloted during the Omicron BA.1 response, this method has been applied to subsequent Omicron subvariants and can be readily applied to future SARS-CoV-2 emerging variants and other public health surveillance activities.

An in-line method for high-throughput screening of protein tyrosine phosphatase receptor type O inhibitors by capillary electrophoresis based on electrophoretically mediated microanalysis.

Protein tyrosine phosphatase receptor type O (PTPRO) plays an important role in inflammation-related pathways and has become an emerging drug target. In this study, we developed an in-line capillary electrophoresis (CE) method for the investigation of the enzymatic activity of PTPRO, which was based on electrophoretically mediated microanalysis (EMMA). After a thorough method validation of the optimized conditions, this protocol was successfully employed to determine the kinetics of PTPRO as well as the half-maximal inhibitory concentration (IC50) of two typical PTPRO inhibitors. The final results were consistent with the values obtained through classical ultraviolet-visible (UV-vis) spectrophotometry. Our new method exhibited improved accuracy and reduced consumption, avoiding the disadvantages of traditional methods. This work provides a new strategy for PTPRO enzyme kinetic studies as well as inhibitory activity determination through capillary electrophoresis for the first time.

Computed tomographic manifestations of celiac ganglia between hypertensive and non-hypertensive population.

The celiac ganglion (CG) is associated with the sympathetic nervous system (SNS) and plays an important role in the pathogenesis of hypertension. The characteristics of the CG in patients with hypertension remain unknown. The aim of our study was to explore the differences in celiac ganglia (CGs) characteristics between hypertensive and non-hypertensive populations using computed tomography (CT). CGs manifestations on multidetector row CT in 1003 patients with and without hypertension were retrospectively analyzed. The morphological characteristics and CT values of the left CGs were recorded. The CT values of the ipsilateral adrenal gland (AG) and crus of the diaphragm (CD) were also measured. The left CG was located between the left AG and CD, and most CGs were long strips. The frequency of visualization of the left CGs was higher in the hypertension group than in the non-hypertension group (p < .05). There were no significant differences in the maximum diameter, size, and shape ratio of the left CGs between the two groups (p > .05). Except for the left CG in the arterial phase, the CT values of the left CG and AG in the non-hypertensive group were higher than those in the hypertension group (p < .05). The venous phase enhancement of the left CG in the non-hypertension group was significantly higher than that in the hypertension group (p < .05). Our findings reveal that CGs have characteristic manifestations in the hypertensive population. As important targets of the SNS, CGs have the potential to regulate blood pressure.

A novel clinical-imaging nomogram for predicting primary aldosteronism in patients with hypertension.

This study aimed to develop and validate the accuracy of a clinical-imaging index nomogram in predicting primary aldosteronism (PA) in patients with hypertension. This case-control study enrolled 404 hypertension patients in the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, China, from April 2017 to September 2021. The patients were randomly divided into the training set (n = 283, 70%) and the validation set (n = 121, 30%). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors of PA, which were then used construct a nomogram. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration plot were drawn to assess the predictive value. The accuracies of our nomogram and other known prediction models were compared using decision curve analyses (DCA). Four significant variables (history of hypokalemia [OR = 2.684, 95% CI: 1.281-5.623, P < 0.001], typical imaging feature [OR = 2.316, 95% CI: 1.166-4.601, P = 0.003], 24 h urine potassium [OR = 0.956, 95% CI: 0.932-0.980, P < 0.001], plasma renin activity [PRA] [OR = 1.423, 95% CI: 1.161-1.744, P < 0.001]) in the multivariate logistic regression analysis were sifted out, and used to build the nomogram. The predictive nomogram yielded an AUC of 0.890 (95% CI, 0.853-0.927) in the training set and 0.860 (95% CI, 0.793-0.927) in the validation set. Predicted and actual probability of PA matched well in the nomogram. Moreover, the DCA showed that the nomogram gained a net benefit in clinical practice in predicting PA when the threshold value was set between 0.1 and 1.0. Our four-variable nomogram was accurate in predicting PA patients and might be introduced into clinical management.

Omentin-1 drives cardiomyocyte cell cycle arrest and metabolic maturation by interacting with BMP7.

Mammalian cardiomyocytes (CMs) undergo maturation during postnatal heart development to meet the increased demands of growth. Here, we found that omentin-1, an adipokine, facilitates CM cell cycle arrest and metabolic maturation. Deletion of omentin-1 causes mouse heart enlargement and dysfunction in adulthood and CM maturation retardation in juveniles, including delayed cell cycle arrest and reduced fatty acid oxidation. Through RNA sequencing, molecular docking analysis, and proximity ligation assays, we found that omentin-1 regulates CM maturation by interacting directly with bone morphogenetic protein 7 (BMP7). Omentin-1 prevents BMP7 from binding to activin type II receptor B (ActRIIB), subsequently decreasing the downstream pathways mothers against DPP homolog 1 (SMAD1)/Yes-associated protein (YAP) and p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase (p38 MAPK). In addition, omentin-1 is required and sufficient for the maturation of human embryonic stem cell-derived CMs. Together, our findings reveal that omentin-1 is a pro-maturation factor for CMs that is essential for postnatal heart development and cardiac function maintenance.

Prediction of post-PCV13 pneumococcal evolution using invasive disease data enhanced by inverse-invasiveness weighting.

Background: After introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), serotype replacement occurred in the population of Streptococcus pneumoniae. Predicting which pneumococcal clones and serotypes will become more common in carriage after vaccination can enhance vaccine design and public health interventions, while also improving our understanding of pneumococcal evolution. We sought to use invasive disease data to assess how well negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) models could explain pneumococcal carriage population evolution in the post-PCV13 epoch by weighting invasive data to approximate strain proportions in the carriage population. Methods: Invasive pneumococcal isolates were collected and sequenced during 1998-2018 by the Active Bacterial Core surveillance (ABCs) from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). To predict the post-PCV13 population dynamics in the carriage population using a NFDS model, all genomic data were processed under a bioinformatic pipeline of assembly, annotation, and pangenome analysis to define genetically similar sequence clusters (i.e., strains) and a set of accessory genes present in 5% to 95% of the isolates. The NFDS model predicted the strain proportion by calculating the post-vaccine strain composition in the weighted invasive disease population that would best match pre-vaccine accessory gene frequencies. To overcome the biases of invasive disease data, serotype-specific inverse-invasiveness weights were defined as the ratio of the proportion of the serotype in the carriage data to the proportion in the invasive data, using data from 1998-2001 in the United States, before conjugate vaccine introduction. The weights were applied to adjust both the observed strain proportion and the accessory gene frequencies. Results: Inverse-invasiveness weighting increased the correlation of accessory gene frequencies between invasive and carriage data with reduced residuals in linear or logit scale for pre-vaccine, post-PCV7, and post-PCV13. Similarly, weighting increased the correlation of accessory gene frequencies between different time periods in the invasive data. By weighting the invasive data, we were able to use the NFDS model to predict strain proportions in the carriage population in the post-PCV13 epoch, with the adjusted R-squared between predicted and observed strain proportions increasing from 0.176 to 0.544 after weighting. Conclusions: The weighting system adjusted the invasive disease surveillance data to better represent the carriage population of S. pneumoniae. The NFDS mechanism predicted the strain proportions in the projected carriage population as estimated from the weighted invasive disease frequencies in the post-PCV13 epoch. Our methods enrich the value of genomic sequences from invasive disease surveillance, which is readily available, easy to collect, and of direct interest to public health.

Discovery of Novel Src Homology-2 Domain-Containing Phosphatase 2 and Histone Deacetylase Dual Inhibitors with Potent Antitumor Efficacy and Enhanced Antitumor Immunity.

Both Src homology-2 domain-containing phosphatase 2 (SHP2) and histone deacetylase (HDAC) are important oncoproteins and potential immunomodulators. In this study, we first observed a synergistic antiproliferation effect of an allosteric SHP2 inhibitor (SHP099) and HDAC inhibitor (SAHA) in MV4-11 cells. Inspired by this result, a series of SHP2/HDAC dual inhibitors were designed based on the pharmacophore fusion strategy. Among these inhibitors, the most potent compound 8t showed excellent inhibitory activities against SHP2 (IC50 = 20.4 nM) and HDAC1 (IC50 = 25.3 nM). In particular, compound 8t exhibited improved antitumor activities compared with those of SHP099 and SAHA in vitro and in vivo. Our study also indicated that treatment with 8t could trigger efficient antitumor immunity by activating T cells, enhancing the antigen presentation function and promoting cytokine secretion. To our knowledge, we report the first small molecular SHP2/HDAC dual inhibitor and demonstrate a new strategy for cancer immunotherapy.

Prophylactic exercise-derived circulating exosomal miR-125a-5p promotes endogenous revascularization after hindlimb ischemia by targeting endothelin converting enzyme 1.

Background: Prophylactic exercise improves clinical outcomes in patients experiencing severe ischemic diseases. Previous studies have shown that exercise could alter the amount or content of circulating exosomes. However, little is known about the role of precursory exercise-derived circulating exosomes (Exe-Exo) in ischemic diseases. We therefore aimed to explore the function and mechanism of Exe-Exo in endogenous revascularization and perfusion recovery in peripheral arterial disease. Methods and Results: We first determined that 4 weeks of precursory treadmill exercise improved perfusion recovery on days 7, 14 and 21 after unilateral femoral artery ligation (FAL) but had no effect immediately after ligation. Then, local muscle delivery of Exe-Exo promotes arteriogenesis, angiogenesis and perfusion recovery, which could be abolished by GW4869, a well-recognized pharmacological agent inhibiting exosome release. This suggests that Exe-Exo mediated exercise-induced revascularization. In vitro, Exe-Exo enhanced endothelial cell proliferation, migration and tube formation. In addition, we identified miR-125a-5p as a novel exerkine through exosomal miRNA sequencing and RT-qPCR validation. Inhibition of miR-125a-5p abrogated the beneficial effects of Exe-Exo both in vivo and in vitro. Mechanistically, these exercise-afforded benefits were attributed to the exosomal miR-125a-5p downregulation of ECE1 expression and the subsequent activation of the AKT/eNOS downstream signaling pathway. Specifically, skeletal muscle may be a major tissue source of exercise-induced exosomal miR-125a-5p via fluorescence in situ hybridization. Conclusions: Endogenous circulating exosomal miR-125a-5p promotes exercise-induced revascularization via targeting ECE1 and activating AKT/eNOS downstream signaling pathway. Identify exosomal miR-125a-5p as a novel exerkine, and highlight its potential therapeutic role in the prevention and treatment of peripheral arterial disease.

Canonical Wnt signaling works downstream of iron overload to prevent ferroptosis from damaging osteoblast differentiation.

Excessive iron has emerged in a large population of patients suffering from degenerative or hematological diseases with a common outcome, osteoporosis. However, its underlying mechanism remains to be clarified in order to formulate effective prevention and intervention against the loss of bone-forming osteoblasts. We show herein that increased intracellular iron by ferric ammonium citrate (FAC) mimicking the so-called non-transferrin bound iron concentrations leads to ferroptosis and impaired osteoblast differentiation. FAC upregulates the expression of Trfr and DMT1 genes to increase iron uptake, accumulating intracellular labile ferrous iron for iron overload status. Then, the excessive ferrous iron generates reactive oxygen species (ROS) and lipid peroxidation products (LPO), causing ferroptosis with its typical mitochondrial morphological changes, such as shrinkaged and condensed membrane with diminution and loss of crista and outer membrane rupture. We further examined that ferroptosis is the main cause responsible for FAC-disrupted osteoblast differentiation, although apoptosis and senescence are concurrently induced as well. Mechanistically, we revealed that iron dose-dependently down-regulates the expression of Wnt target genes and inhibits the transcription of Wnt reporter TopFlash construct, so as to inhibit the canonical Wnt signaling. Wnt agonist, ferroptosis inhibitor, or antioxidant melatonin reverses iron-inhibited canonical Wnt signaling to restore osteoblast differentiation by reducing ROS and LPO production to prevent ferroptosis notably without reducing iron overload. This study proposes a working model against excessive iron-induced osteoporosis: iron chelator deferoxamine or the above three drugs prevent ferroptosis, restore traditional Wnt signaling to maintain osteoblast differentiation no matter whether iron overload is removed or not. Additionally, iron chelator should be used to a suitable extent because iron itself is necessary for osteogenic differentiation.

Occurrence and transmission potential of asymptomatic and presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections: Update of a living systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Debate about the level of asymptomatic Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection continues. The amount of evidence is increasing and study designs have changed over time. We updated a living systematic review to address 3 questions: (1) Among people who become infected with SARS-CoV-2, what proportion does not experience symptoms at all during their infection? (2) What is the infectiousness of asymptomatic and presymptomatic, compared with symptomatic, SARS-CoV-2 infection? (3) What proportion of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a population is accounted for by people who are asymptomatic or presymptomatic? METHODS AND FINDINGS: The protocol was first published on 1 April 2020 and last updated on 18 June 2021. We searched PubMed, Embase, bioRxiv, and medRxiv, aggregated in a database of SARS-CoV-2 literature, most recently on 6 July 2021. Studies of people with PCR-diagnosed SARS-CoV-2, which documented symptom status at the beginning and end of follow-up, or mathematical modelling studies were included. Studies restricted to people already diagnosed, of single individuals or families, or without sufficient follow-up were excluded. One reviewer extracted data and a second verified the extraction, with disagreement resolved by discussion or a third reviewer. Risk of bias in empirical studies was assessed with a bespoke checklist and modelling studies with a published checklist. All data syntheses were done using random effects models. Review question (1): We included 130 studies. Heterogeneity was high so we did not estimate a mean proportion of asymptomatic infections overall (interquartile range (IQR) 14% to 50%, prediction interval 2% to 90%), or in 84 studies based on screening of defined populations (IQR 20% to 65%, prediction interval 4% to 94%). In 46 studies based on contact or outbreak investigations, the summary proportion asymptomatic was 19% (95% confidence interval (CI) 15% to 25%, prediction interval 2% to 70%). (2) The secondary attack rate in contacts of people with asymptomatic infection compared with symptomatic infection was 0.32 (95% CI 0.16 to 0.64, prediction interval 0.11 to 0.95, 8 studies). (3) In 13 modelling studies fit to data, the proportion of all SARS-CoV-2 transmission from presymptomatic individuals was higher than from asymptomatic individuals. Limitations of the evidence include high heterogeneity and high risks of selection and information bias in studies that were not designed to measure persistently asymptomatic infection, and limited information about variants of concern or in people who have been vaccinated. CONCLUSIONS: Based on studies published up to July 2021, most SARS-CoV-2 infections were not persistently asymptomatic, and asymptomatic infections were less infectious than symptomatic infections. Summary estimates from meta-analysis may be misleading when variability between studies is extreme and prediction intervals should be presented. Future studies should determine the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections caused by variants of concern and in people with immunity following vaccination or previous infection. Without prospective longitudinal studies with methods that minimise selection and measurement biases, further updates with the study types included in this living systematic review are unlikely to be able to provide a reliable summary estimate of the proportion of asymptomatic infections caused by SARS-CoV-2. REVIEW PROTOCOL: Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/9ewys/).

Host diversity and behavior determine patterns of interspecies transmission and geographic diffusion of avian influenza A subtypes among North American wild reservoir species.

Wild birds can carry avian influenza viruses (AIV), including those with pandemic or panzootic potential, long distances. Even though AIV has a broad host range, few studies account for host diversity when estimating AIV spread. We analyzed AIV genomic sequences from North American wild birds, including 303 newly sequenced isolates, to estimate interspecies and geographic viral transition patterns among multiple co-circulating subtypes. Our results show high transition rates within Anseriformes and Charadriiformes, but limited transitions between these orders. Patterns of transition between species were positively associated with breeding habitat range overlap, and negatively associated with host genetic distance. Distance between regions (negative correlation) and summer temperature at origin (positive correlation) were strong predictors of transition between locations. Taken together, this study demonstrates that host diversity and ecology can determine evolutionary processes that underlie AIV natural history and spread. Understanding these processes can provide important insights for effective control of AIV.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Sequence Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Persistence and Reinfection.

BACKGROUND: Both severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) reinfection and persistent infection have been reported, but sequence characteristics in these scenarios have not been described. We assessed published cases of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection and persistence, characterizing the hallmarks of reinfecting sequences and the rate of viral evolution in persistent infection. METHODS: A systematic review of PubMed was conducted to identify cases of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection and persistence with available sequences. Nucleotide and amino acid changes in the reinfecting sequence were compared with both the initial and contemporaneous community variants. Time-measured phylogenetic reconstruction was performed to compare intrahost viral evolution in persistent SARS-CoV-2 to community-driven evolution. RESULTS: Twenty reinfection and 9 persistent infection cases were identified. Reports of reinfection cases spanned a broad distribution of ages, baseline health status, reinfection severity, and occurred as early as 1.5 months or >8 months after the initial infection. The reinfecting viral sequences had a median of 17.5 nucleotide changes with enrichment in the ORF8 and N genes. The number of changes did not differ by the severity of reinfection and reinfecting variants were similar to the contemporaneous sequences circulating in the community. Patients with persistent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) demonstrated more rapid accumulation of sequence changes than seen with community-driven evolution with continued evolution during convalescent plasma or monoclonal antibody treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Reinfecting SARS-CoV-2 viral genomes largely mirror contemporaneous circulating sequences in that geographic region, while persistent COVID-19 has been largely described in immunosuppressed individuals and is associated with accelerated viral evolution.

Novel and extendable genotyping system for human respiratory syncytial virus based on whole-genome sequence analysis.

BACKGROUND: Human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is one of the leading causes of respiratory infections, especially in infants and young children. Previous RSV sequencing studies have primarily focused on partial sequencing of G gene (200-300 nucleotides) for genotype characterization or diagnostics. However, the genotype assignment with G gene has not recapitulated the phylogenetic signal of other genes, and there is no consensus on RSV genotype definition. METHODS: We conducted maximum likelihood phylogenetic analysis with 10 RSV individual genes and whole-genome sequence (WGS) that are published in GenBank. RSV genotypes were determined by using phylogenetic analysis and pair-wise node distances. RESULTS: In this study, we first statistically examined the phylogenetic incongruence, rate variation for each RSV gene sequence and WGS. We then proposed a new RSV genotyping system based on a comparative analysis of WGS and the temporal distribution of strains. We also provide an RSV classification tool to perform RSV genotype assignment and a publicly accessible up-to-date instance of Nextstrain where the phylogenetic relationship of all genotypes can be explored. CONCLUSIONS: This revised RSV genotyping system will provide important information for disease surveillance, epidemiology, and vaccine development.

Multiple Variants of SARS-CoV-2 in a University Outbreak After Spring Break - Chicago, Illinois, March-May 2021.

To prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, colleges and universities have implemented multiple strategies including testing, isolation, quarantine, contact tracing, masking, and vaccination. In April 2021, the Chicago Department of Public Health (CDPH) was notified of a large cluster of students with COVID-19 at an urban university after spring break. A total of 158 cases of COVID-19 were diagnosed among undergraduate students during March 15-May 3, 2021; the majority (114; 72.2%) lived in on-campus dormitories. CDPH evaluated the role of travel and social connections, as well as the potential impact of SARS-CoV-2 variants, on transmission. Among 140 infected students who were interviewed, 89 (63.6%) reported recent travel outside Chicago during spring break, and 57 (40.7%) reported indoor social exposures. At the time of the outbreak, undergraduate-aged persons were largely ineligible for vaccination in Chicago; only three of the students with COVID-19 (1.9%) were fully vaccinated. Whole genome sequencing (WGS) of 104 specimens revealed multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 lineages, suggesting several nearly simultaneous introductions. Most specimens (66; 63.5%) were B.1.1.222, a lineage not widely detected in Chicago before or after this outbreak. These results demonstrate the potential for COVID-19 outbreaks on university campuses after widespread student travel during breaks, at the beginning of new school terms, and when students participate in indoor social gatherings. To prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission, colleges and universities should encourage COVID-19 vaccination; discourage unvaccinated students from travel, including during university breaks; implement serial COVID-19 screening among unvaccinated persons after university breaks; encourage masking; and implement universal serial testing for students based on community transmission levels.

When intuition falters: repeated testing accuracy during an epidemic.

Widespread, repeated testing using rapid antigen tests to proactively detect asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections has been a promising yet controversial topic during the COVID-19 pandemic. Concerns have been raised over whether currently authorized lateral flow tests are sufficiently sensitive and specific to detect enough infections to impact transmission whilst minimizing unnecessary isolation of false positives. These concerns have often been illustrated using simple, textbook calculations of positivity rates and positive predictive value assuming fixed values for sensitivity, specificity and prevalence. However, we argue that evaluating repeated testing strategies requires the consideration of three additional factors: new infections continue to arise depending on the incidence rate, isolating positive individuals reduces prevalence in the tested population, and each infected individual is tested multiple times during their infection course. We provide a simple mathematical model with an online interface to illustrate how these three factors impact test positivity rates and the number of isolating individuals over time. These results highlight the potential pitfalls of using inappropriate textbook-style calculations to evaluate statistics arising from repeated testing strategies during an epidemic.

Coming to America: Genomic surveillance and how B.1.1.7 arrived in the US.

In this issue of Cell, Washington et al. and Alpert et al. demonstrate the value of genomic surveillance when studying the introduction of the B.1.1.7 variant to the US and illustrate the challenge that results from the lack of good sampling strategies.

Snowball Sampling Study Design for Serosurveys Early in Disease Outbreaks.

Serological surveys can provide evidence of cases that were not previously detected, depict the spectrum of disease severity, and estimate the proportion of asymptomatic infections. To capture these parameters, survey sample sizes may need to be very large, especially when the overall infection rate is still low. Therefore, we propose the use of "snowball sampling" to enrich serological surveys by testing contacts of infected persons identified in the early stages of an outbreak. For future emerging pandemics, this observational study sampling design can answer many key questions, such as estimation of the asymptomatic proportion of all infected cases, the probability of a given clinical presentation for a seropositive individual, or the association between characteristics of either the host or the infection and seropositivity among contacts of index individuals. We provide examples, in the context of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, of studies and analysis methods that use a snowball sample and perform a simulation study that demonstrates scenarios where snowball sampling can answer these questions more efficiently than other sampling schemes. We hope such study designs can be applied to provide valuable information to slow the present pandemic as it enters its next stage and in early stages of future pandemics.

Evaluating the contributions of strategies to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the healthcare setting: a modelling study.

INTRODUCTION: Since its onset, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant morbidity and mortality worldwide, with particularly severe outcomes in healthcare institutions and congregate settings. To mitigate spread, healthcare systems have been cohorting patients to limit contacts between uninfected patients and potentially infected patients or healthcare workers (HCWs). A major challenge in managing the pandemic is the presence of currently asymptomatic/presymptomatic individuals capable of transmitting the virus, who could introduce COVID-19 into uninfected cohorts. The optimal combination of personal protective equipment (PPE), testing and other approaches to prevent these events is unclear, especially in light of ongoing limited resources. METHODS: Using stochastic simulations with a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered dynamic model, we quantified and compared the impacts of PPE use, patient and HCWs surveillance testing and subcohorting strategies. RESULTS: In the base case without testing or PPE, the healthcare system was rapidly overwhelmed, and became a net contributor to the force of infection. We found that effective use of PPE by both HCWs and patients could prevent this scenario, while random testing of apparently asymptomatic/presymptomatic individuals on a weekly basis was less effective. We also found that even imperfect use of PPE could provide substantial protection by decreasing the force of infection. Importantly, we found that creating smaller patient/HCW-interaction subcohorts can provide additional resilience to outbreak development with limited resources. CONCLUSION: These findings reinforce the importance of ensuring adequate PPE supplies even in the absence of testing and provide support for strict subcohorting regimens to reduce outbreak potential in healthcare institutions.