Seasonal antigenic prediction of influenza A H3N2 using machine learning.

Antigenic characterization of circulating influenza A virus (IAV) isolates is routinely assessed by using the hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays for surveillance purposes. It is also used to determine the need for annual influenza vaccine updates as well as for pandemic preparedness. Performing antigenic characterization of IAV on a global scale is confronted with high costs, animal availability, and other practical challenges. Here we present a machine learning model that accurately predicts (normalized) outputs of HI assays involving circulating human IAV H3N2 viruses, using their hemagglutinin subunit 1 (HA1) sequences and associated metadata. Each season, the model learns an updated nonlinear mapping of genetic to antigenic changes using data from past seasons only. The model accurately distinguishes antigenic variants from non-variants and adaptively characterizes seasonal dynamics of HA1 sites having the strongest influence on antigenic change. Antigenic predictions produced by the model can aid influenza surveillance, public health management, and vaccine strain selection activities.

Cross-Reactivity Assessment of Vaccine-Derived SARS-CoV-2 T Cell Responses against BA.2.86 and JN.1.

The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron sub-variants BA.2.86 and JN.1 contain multiple mutations in the spike protein that were not present in previous variants of concern and Omicron sub-variants. Preliminary research suggests that these variants reduce the neutralizing capability of antibodies induced by vaccines, which is particularly significant for JN.1. This raises concern as many widely deployed COVID-19 vaccines are based on the spike protein of the ancestral Wuhan strain of SARS-CoV-2. While T cell responses have been shown to be robust against previous SARS-CoV-2 variants, less is known about the impact of mutations in BA.2.86 and JN.1 on T cell responses. We evaluate the effect of mutations specific to BA.2.86 and JN.1 on experimentally determined T cell epitopes derived from the spike protein of the ancestral Wuhan strain and the spike protein of the XBB.1.5 strain that has been recommended as a booster vaccine. Our data suggest that BA.2.86 and JN.1 affect numerous T cell epitopes in spike compared to previous variants; however, the widespread loss of T cell recognition against these variants is unlikely.

HCV E1 influences the fitness landscape of E2 and may enhance escape from E2-specific antibodies.

The Hepatitis C virus (HCV) envelope glycoprotein E1 forms a non-covalent heterodimer with E2, the main target of neutralizing antibodies. How E1-E2 interactions influence viral fitness and contribute to resistance to E2-specific antibodies remain largely unknown. We investigate this problem using a combination of fitness landscape and evolutionary modeling. Our analysis indicates that E1 and E2 proteins collectively mediate viral fitness and suggests that fitness-compensating E1 mutations may accelerate escape from E2-targeting antibodies. Our analysis also identifies a set of E2-specific human monoclonal antibodies that are predicted to be especially resilient to escape via genetic variation in both E1 and E2, providing directions for robust HCV vaccine development.

Direct-acting antiviral resistance of Hepatitis C virus is promoted by epistasis.

Direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) provide efficacious therapeutic treatments for chronic Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. However, emergence of drug resistance mutations (DRMs) can greatly affect treatment outcomes and impede virological cure. While multiple DRMs have been observed for all currently used DAAs, the evolutionary determinants of such mutations are not currently well understood. Here, by considering DAAs targeting the nonstructural 3 (NS3) protein of HCV, we present results suggesting that epistasis plays an important role in the evolution of DRMs. Employing a sequence-based fitness landscape model whose predictions correlate highly with experimental data, we identify specific DRMs that are associated with strong epistatic interactions, and these are found to be enriched in multiple NS3-specific DAAs. Evolutionary modelling further supports that the identified DRMs involve compensatory mutational interactions that facilitate relatively easy escape from drug-induced selection pressures. Our results indicate that accounting for epistasis is important for designing future HCV NS3-targeting DAAs.

Within-host genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals.

Viral and host factors can shape SARS-CoV-2 evolution. However, little is known about lineage-specific and vaccination-specific mutations that occur within individuals. Here, we analysed deep sequencing data from 2,820 SARS-CoV-2 respiratory samples with different viral lineages to describe the patterns of within-host diversity under different conditions, including vaccine-breakthrough infections. In unvaccinated individuals, variant of Concern (VOC) Alpha, Delta, and Omicron respiratory samples were found to have higher within-host diversity and were under neutral to purifying selection at the full genome level compared to non-VOC SARS-CoV-2. Breakthrough infections in 2-dose or 3-dose Comirnaty and CoronaVac vaccinated individuals did not increase levels of non-synonymous mutations and did not change the direction of selection pressure. Vaccine-induced antibody or T cell responses did not appear to have significant impact on within-host SARS-CoV-2 sequence diversification. Our findings suggest that vaccination does not increase exploration of SARS-CoV-2 protein sequence space and may not facilitate emergence of viral variants.

Vaccinia-Virus-Based Vaccines Are Expected to Elicit Highly Cross-Reactive Immunity to the 2022 Monkeypox Virus.

Beginning in May 2022, a novel cluster of monkeypox virus infections was detected in humans. This virus has spread rapidly to non-endemic countries, sparking global concern. Specific vaccines based on the vaccinia virus (VACV) have demonstrated high efficacy against monkeypox viruses in the past and are considered an important outbreak control measure. Viruses observed in the current outbreak carry distinct genetic variations that have the potential to affect vaccine-induced immune recognition. Here, by investigating genetic variation with respect to orthologous immunogenic vaccinia-virus proteins, we report data that anticipates immune responses induced by VACV-based vaccines, including the currently available MVA-BN and ACAM2000 vaccines, to remain highly cross-reactive against the newly observed monkeypox viruses.

Within-host diversity of SARS-CoV-2 lineages and effect of vaccination.

Viral and host factors can shape SARS-CoV-2 within-host viral diversity and virus evolution. However, little is known about lineage-specific and vaccination-specific mutations that occur within individuals. Here we analysed deep sequencing data from 2,146 SARS-CoV-2 samples with different viral lineages to describe the patterns of within-host diversity in different conditions, including vaccine-breakthrough infections. Variant of Concern (VOC) Alpha, Delta, and Omicron samples were found to have higher within-host nucleotide diversity while being under weaker purifying selection at full genome level compared to non-VOC SARS-CoV-2 viruses. Breakthrough Delta and Omicron infections in Comirnaty and CoronaVac vaccinated individuals appeared to have higher within-host purifying selection at the full-genome and/or Spike gene levels. Vaccine-induced antibody or T cell responses did not appear to have significant impact on within-host SARS-CoV-2 evolution. Our findings suggest that vaccination does not increase SARS-CoV-2 protein sequence space and may not facilitate emergence of more viral variants.

Identification of Potential SARS-CoV-2 CD8+ T Cell Escape Mutants.

Memory SARS-CoV-2-specific CD8+ T cell responses induced upon infection or COVID-19 vaccination have been important for protecting against severe COVID-19 disease while being largely robust against variants of concern (VOCs) observed so far. However, T cell immunity may be weakened by genetic mutations in future SARS-CoV-2 variants that lead to widespread T cell escape. The capacity for SARS-CoV-2 mutations to escape memory T cell responses requires comprehensive experimental investigation, though this is prohibited by the large number of SARS-CoV-2 mutations that have been observed. To guide targeted experimental studies, here we provide a screened list of potential SARS-CoV-2 T cell escape mutants. These mutants are identified as candidates for T cell escape as they lie within CD8+ T cell epitopes that are commonly targeted in individuals and are predicted to abrogate HLA-peptide binding.

SARS-CoV-2 T Cell Responses Elicited by COVID-19 Vaccines or Infection Are Expected to Remain Robust against Omicron.

Omicron, the most recent SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern (VOC), harbours multiple mutations in the spike protein that were not observed in previous VOCs. Initial studies suggest Omicron to substantially reduce the neutralizing capability of antibodies induced from vaccines and previous infection. However, its effect on T cell responses remains to be determined. Here, we assess the effect of Omicron mutations on known T cell epitopes and report data suggesting T cell responses to remain broadly robust against this new variant.

Landscape of epitopes targeted by T cells in 852 individuals recovered from COVID-19: Meta-analysis, immunoprevalence, and web platform.

Knowledge of the epitopes of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) targeted by T cells in recovered (convalescent) individuals is important for understanding T cell immunity against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This information can aid development and assessment of COVID-19 vaccines and inform novel diagnostic technologies. Here, we provide a unified description and meta-analysis of SARS-CoV-2 T cell epitopes compiled from 18 studies of cohorts of individuals recovered from COVID-19 (852 individuals in total). Our analysis demonstrates the broad diversity of T cell epitopes that have been recorded for SARS-CoV-2. A large majority are seemingly unaffected by current variants of concern. We identify a set of 20 immunoprevalent epitopes that induced T cell responses in multiple cohorts and in a large fraction of tested individuals. The landscape of SARS-CoV-2 T cell epitopes we describe can help guide immunological studies, including those related to vaccines and diagnostics. A web-based platform has been developed to help complement these efforts.

Detection of Diabetic Retinopathy from Ultra-Widefield Scanning Laser Ophthalmoscope Images: A Multicenter Deep Learning Analysis.

PURPOSE: To develop a deep learning (DL) system that can detect referable diabetic retinopathy (RDR) and vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy (VTDR) from images obtained on ultra-widefield scanning laser ophthalmoscope (UWF-SLO). DESIGN: Observational, cross-sectional study. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 9392 UWF-SLO images of 1903 eyes from 1022 subjects with diabetes from Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, India, and Argentina. METHODS: All images were labeled according to the presence or absence of RDR and the presence or absence of VTDR. Labeling was performed by retina specialists from fundus examination, according to the International Clinical Diabetic Retinopathy Disease Severity Scale. Three convolutional neural networks (ResNet50) were trained with a transfer-learning procedure for assessing gradability and identifying VTDR and RDR. External validation was performed on 4 datasets spanning different geographical regions. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC); area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC); sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of the DL system in gradability assessment; and detection of RDR and VTDR. RESULTS: For gradability assessment, the system achieved an AUROC of 0.923 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.892-0.947), sensitivity of 86.5% (95% CI, 77.6-92.8), and specificity of 82.1% (95% CI, 77.3-86.2) for the primary validation dataset, and >0.82 AUROCs, >79.6% sensitivity, and >70.4% specificity for the geographical external validation datasets. For detecting RDR and VTDR, the AUROCs were 0.981 (95% CI, 0.977-0.984) and 0.966 (95% CI, 0.961-0.971), with sensitivities of 94.9% (95% CI, 92.3-97.9) and 87.2% (95% CI, 81.5-91.6), specificities of 95.1% (95% CI, 90.6-97.9) and 95.8% (95% CI, 93.3-97.6), and positive predictive values (PPVs) of 98.0% (95% CI, 96.1-99.0) and 91.1% (95% CI, 86.3-94.3) for the primary validation dataset, respectively. The AUROCs and accuracies for detecting both RDR and VTDR were >0.9% and >80%, respectively, for the geographical external validation datasets. The AUPRCs were >0.9, and sensitivities, specificities, and PPVs were >80% for the geographical external validation datasets for RDR and VTDR detection. CONCLUSIONS: The excellent performance achieved with this DL system for image quality assessment and detection of RDR and VTDR in UWF-SLO images highlights its potential as an efficient and effective diabetic retinopathy screening tool.

In silico T cell epitope identification for SARS-CoV-2: Progress and perspectives.

Growing evidence suggests that T cells may play a critical role in combating severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Hence, COVID-19 vaccines that can elicit a robust T cell response may be particularly important. The design, development and experimental evaluation of such vaccines is aided by an understanding of the landscape of T cell epitopes of SARS-CoV-2, which is largely unknown. Due to the challenges of identifying epitopes experimentally, many studies have proposed the use of in silico methods. Here, we present a review of the in silico methods that have been used for the prediction of SARS-CoV-2 T cell epitopes. These methods employ a diverse set of technical approaches, often rooted in machine learning. A performance comparison is provided based on the ability to identify a specific set of immunogenic epitopes that have been determined experimentally to be targeted by T cells in convalescent COVID-19 patients, shedding light on the relative performance merits of the different approaches adopted by the in silico studies. The review also puts forward perspectives for future research directions.

Co-evolution networks of HIV/HCV are modular with direct association to structure and function.

Mutational correlation patterns found in population-level sequence data for the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and the Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) have been demonstrated to be informative of viral fitness. Such patterns can be seen as footprints of the intrinsic functional constraints placed on viral evolution under diverse selective pressures. Here, considering multiple HIV and HCV proteins, we demonstrate that these mutational correlations encode a modular co-evolutionary structure that is tightly linked to the structural and functional properties of the respective proteins. Specifically, by introducing a robust statistical method based on sparse principal component analysis, we identify near-disjoint sets of collectively-correlated residues (sectors) having mostly a one-to-one association to largely distinct structural or functional domains. This suggests that the distinct phenotypic properties of HIV/HCV proteins often give rise to quasi-independent modes of evolution, with each mode involving a sparse and localized network of mutational interactions. Moreover, individual inferred sectors of HIV are shown to carry immunological significance, providing insight for guiding targeted vaccine strategies.