Mental-somatic multimorbidity in trajectories of cognitive function for middle-aged and older adults.

INTRODUCTION: Multimorbidity may confer higher risk for cognitive decline than any single constituent disease. This study aims to identify distinct trajectories of cognitive impairment probability among middle-aged and older adults, and to assess the effect of changes in mental-somatic multimorbidity on these distinct trajectories. METHODS: Data from the Health and Retirement Study (1998-2016) were employed to estimate group-based trajectory models identifying distinct trajectories of cognitive impairment probability. Four time-varying mental-somatic multimorbidity combinations (somatic, stroke, depressive, stroke and depressive) were examined for their association with observed trajectories of cognitive impairment probability with age. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was conducted to quantify the association of sociodemographic and health-related factors with trajectory group membership. RESULTS: Respondents (N = 20,070) had a mean age of 61.0 years (SD = 8.7) at baseline. Three distinct cognitive trajectories were identified using group-based trajectory modelling: (1) Low risk with late-life increase (62.6%), (2) Low initial risk with rapid increase (25.7%), and (3) High risk (11.7%). For adults following along Low risk with late-life increase, the odds of cognitive impairment for stroke and depressive multimorbidity (OR:3.92, 95%CI:2.91,5.28) were nearly two times higher than either stroke multimorbidity (OR:2.06, 95%CI:1.75,2.43) or depressive multimorbidity (OR:2.03, 95%CI:1.71,2.41). The odds of cognitive impairment for stroke and depressive multimorbidity in Low initial risk with rapid increase or High risk (OR:4.31, 95%CI:3.50,5.31; OR:3.43, 95%CI:2.07,5.66, respectively) were moderately higher than stroke multimorbidity (OR:2.71, 95%CI:2.35, 3.13; OR: 3.23, 95%CI:2.16, 4.81, respectively). In the multinomial logistic regression model, non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic respondents had higher odds of being in Low initial risk with rapid increase and High risk relative to non-Hispanic White adults. CONCLUSIONS: These findings show that depressive and stroke multimorbidity combinations have the greatest association with rapid cognitive declines and their prevention may postpone these declines, especially in socially disadvantaged and minoritized groups.

Recommendations on Methods for Assessing Multimorbidity Changes Over Time: Aligning the Method to the Purpose.

BACKGROUND: The rapidly growing field of multimorbidity research demonstrates that changes in multimorbidity in mid- and late-life have far reaching effects on important person-centered outcomes, such as health-related quality of life. However, there are few organizing frameworks and comparatively little work weighing the merits and limitations of various quantitative methods applied to the longitudinal study of multimorbidity. METHODS: We identify and discuss methods aligned to specific research objectives with the goals of (i) establishing a common language for assessing longitudinal changes in multimorbidity, (ii) illuminating gaps in our knowledge regarding multimorbidity progression and critical periods of change, and (iii) informing research to identify groups that experience different rates and divergent etiological pathways of disease progression linked to deterioration in important health-related outcomes. RESULTS: We review practical issues in the measurement of multimorbidity, longitudinal analysis of health-related data, operationalizing change over time, and discuss methods that align with 4 general typologies for research objectives in the longitudinal study of multimorbidity: (i) examine individual change in multimorbidity, (ii) identify subgroups that follow similar trajectories of multimorbidity progression, (iii) understand when, how, and why individuals or groups shift to more advanced stages of multimorbidity, and (iv) examine the coprogression of multimorbidity with key health domains. CONCLUSIONS: This work encourages a systematic approach to the quantitative study of change in multimorbidity and provides a valuable resource for researchers working to measure and minimize the deleterious effects of multimorbidity on aging populations.

Longitudinal Care Network Changes and Associated Healthcare Utilization Among Care Recipients.

This study examines caregiver networks, including size, composition, and stability, and their associations with the likelihood of hospitalization and skilled-nursing facility (SNF) admissions. Data from the National Health and Aging Trends Study linked to Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services data were analyzed for 3855 older adults across five survey waves. Generalized estimating equation models assessed the associations. The findings indicate each additional paid caregiver was associated with higher adjusted risk ratios (aRR) for hospitalization (aRR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.10-1.41) and SNF admission (aRR = 1.28, 95% CI 1.06-1.54) among care recipients, a pattern that is also observed with the addition of unpaid caregivers (hospitalization: aRR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.06-1.20; SNF: aRR = 1.12, 95% CI 1.02-1.23). These results suggest that policies and approaches to enhance the quality and coordination of caregivers may be warranted to support improved outcomes for care recipients.

Mapping racial and ethnic healthcare disparities for persons living with dementia: A scoping review.

INTRODUCTION: We set out to map evidence of disparities in Alzheimer's disease and Alzheimer's disease related dementias healthcare, including issues of access, quality, and outcomes for racial/ethnic minoritized persons living with dementia (PLWD) and family caregivers. METHODS: We conducted a scoping review of the literature published from 2000 to 2022 in PubMed, PsycINFO, and CINAHL. The inclusion criteria were: (1) focused on PLWD and/or family caregivers, (2) examined disparities or differences in healthcare, (3) were conducted in the United States, (4) compared two or more racial/ethnic groups, and (5) reported quantitative or qualitative findings. RESULTS: Key findings include accumulating evidence that minoritized populations are less likely to receive an accurate and timely diagnosis, be prescribed anti-dementia medications, and use hospice care, and more likely to have a higher risk of hospitalization and receive more aggressive life-sustaining treatment at the end-of-life. DISCUSSION: Future studies need to examine underlying processes and develop interventions to reduce disparities while also being more broadly inclusive of diverse populations.

A Joint Model for Disability, Self-Rated Health, and Mortality Among Medicare Beneficiaries-Differences by Chronic Disease and Race/Ethnicity.

OBJECTIVES: Quantifying interdependence in multiple patient-centered outcomes is important for understanding health declines among older adults. METHODS: Medicare-linked National Health and Aging Trends Study data (2011-2015) were used to estimate a joint longitudinal logistic regression model of disability in activities of daily living (ADL), fair/poor self-rated health (SRH), and mortality. We calculated personalized concurrent risk (PCR) and typical concurrent risk (TCR) using regression coefficients. RESULTS: For fair/poor SRH, highest odds were associated with COPD. For mortality, highest odds were associated with dementia, hip fracture, and kidney disease. Dementia and hip fracture were associated with highest odds of ADL disability. Hispanic respondents had highest odds of ADL disability. Hispanic and NH Black respondents had higher odds of fair/poor SRH, ADL disability, and mortality. PCRs/TCRs demonstrated wide variability for respondents with similar sociodemographic-multimorbidity profiles. DISCUSSION: These findings highlight the variability of personalized risk in examining interdependent outcomes among older adults.

Impact of Health Insurance Patterns on Chronic Health Conditions Among Older Patients.

BACKGROUND: Patients have varying levels of chronic conditions and health insurance patterns as they become Medicare age-eligible. Understanding these dynamics will inform policies and reforms that direct capacity and resources for primary care clinics to care for these aging patients. This study 1) determined changes in chronic condition rates following Medicare age eligibility among patients with different insurance patterns and 2) estimated the number of chronically ill patients who remain inadequately insured post-Medicare eligibility among patients receiving care in community health centers. METHOD: We used retrospective electronic health record data from 45,527 patients aged 62 to 68 from 990 community health centers in 25 states in 2014 to 2019. Insurance patterns (continuously insured, continuously uninsured, uninsured/discontinuously insured who gained insurance after age 65, lost insurance after age 65, discontinuously insured) and diagnosis of chronic conditions were defined at each visit pre- and post-Medicare eligibility. Difference-in-differences Poisson GEE models estimated changes of chronic condition rates by insurance groups pre- to post-Medicare age eligibility. RESULTS: Post-Medicare eligibility, 72% patients were continuously insured, 14% gained insurance; and 14% were uninsured or discontinuously insured. The prevalence of multimorbidity (≥2 chronic conditions) was 77%. Those who gained insurance had a significantly larger increase in the rate of documented chronic conditions from pre- to post-Medicare (DID: 1.06, 95%CI:1.05-1.07) compared with the continuously insured group. CONCLUSIONS: Post-Medicare age eligibility, a significant proportion of patients were diagnosed with new conditions leading to high burden of disease. One in 4 older adults continue to have inadequate health care coverage in their older age.

Preparing for pragmatic trials in dementia care: Health equity considerations for nonpharmacological interventions.

Inequities with regard to brain health, economic costs, and the evidence base for dementia care continue. Achieving health equity in dementia care requires rigorous efforts that ensure disproportionately affected populations participate fully in-and benefit from-clinical research. Embedding-proven interventions under real-world conditions and within existing healthcare systems have the potential to examine the effectiveness of an intervention, improve dementia care, and leverage the use of existing resources. Developing embedded pragmatic controlled trials (ePCT) research designs for nonpharmacological dementia care interventions involves a plethora of a priori assumptions and decisions. Although frameworks exist to determine whether interventions are "ready" for ePCT, there is no heuristic to assess health equity-readiness. We discuss health equity considerations, case examples, and research strategies across ePCT study domains of evidence, risk, and alignment. Future discussions regarding health equity considerations across other domains are needed.

Trajectories of Chronic Disease and Multimorbidity Among Middle-aged and Older Patients at Community Health Centers.

Importance: Health-related consequences of multimorbidity (≥2 chronic diseases) are well documented. However, the extent and rate of accumulation of chronic diseases among US patients seeking care in safety-net clinics are not well understood. These insights are needed to enable clinicians, administrators, and policy makers to mobilize resources for prevention of disease escalations in this population. Objectives: To identify the patterns and rate of chronic disease accumulation among middle-aged and older patients seeking care in community health centers, as well as any sociodemographic differences. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used electronic health record data from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2019, on 725 107 adults aged 45 years or older with 2 or more ambulatory care visits in 2 or more distinct years at 657 primary care clinics in the Advancing Data Value Across a National Community Health Center network in 26 US states. Statistical analysis was performed from September 2021 to February 2023. Exposures: Race and ethnicity, age, insurance coverage, and federal poverty level (FPL). Main Outcomes and Measures: Patient-level chronic disease burden, operationalized as the sum of 22 chronic diseases recommended by the Multiple Chronic Conditions Framework. Linear mixed models with patient-level random effects adjusted for demographic characteristics and ambulatory visit frequency with time interactions were estimated to compare accrual by race and ethnicity, age, income, and insurance coverage. Results: The analytic sample included 725 107 patients (417 067 women [57.5%]; 359 255 [49.5%] aged 45-54 years, 242 571 [33.5%] aged 55-64 years, and 123 281 [17.0%] aged ≥65 years). On average, patients started with a mean (SD) of 1.7 (1.7) morbidities and ended with 2.6 (2.0) morbidities over a mean (SD) of 4.2 (2.0) years of follow-up. Compared with non-Hispanic White patients, patients in racial and ethnic minoritized groups had marginally lower adjusted annual rates of accrual of conditions (-0.03 [95% CI, -0.03 to -0.03] for Spanish-preferring Hispanic patients; -0.02 [95% CI, -0.02 to -0.01] for English-preferring Hispanic patients; -0.01 [95% CI, -0.01 to -0.01] for non-Hispanic Black patients; and -0.04 [95% CI, -0.05 to -0.04] for non-Hispanic Asian patients). Older patients accrued conditions at higher annual rates compared with patients 45 to 50 years of age (0.03 [95% CI, 0.02-0.03] for 50-55 years; 0.03 [95% CI, 0.03-0.04] for 55-60 years; 0.04 [95% CI, 0.04-0.04] for 60-65 years; and 0.05 [95% CI, 0.05-0.05] for ≥65 years). Compared with those with higher income (always ≥138% of the FPL), patients with income less than 138% of the FPL (0.04 [95% CI, 0.04-0.05]), mixed income (0.01 [95% CI, 0.01-0.01]), or unknown income levels (0.04 [95% CI, 0.04-0.04]) had higher annual accrual rates. Compared with continuously insured patients, continuously uninsured and discontinuously insured patients had lower annual accrual rates (continuously uninsured, -0.003 [95% CI, -0.005 to -0.001]; discontinuously insured, -0.004 [95% CI, -0.005 to -0.003]). Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study of middle-aged patients seeking care in community health centers suggests that disease accrued at high rates for patients' chronological age. Targeted efforts for chronic disease prevention are needed for patients near or below the poverty line.

Multimorbidity and Functional Disability among Older Adults: The Role of Inflammation and Glycemic Status - An Observational Longitudinal Study.

INTRODUCTION: Specific multimorbidity combinations, in particular those including arthritis, stroke, and cognitive impairment, have been associated with high burden of activities of daily living (ADL)-instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) disability in older adults. The biologic underpinnings of these associations are still unclear. METHODS: Observational longitudinal study using data from the Health and Retirement Study (N = 8,618, mean age = 74 years, 58% female, 25% non-white) and negative binomial regression models stratified by sex to evaluate the role of inflammatory and glycemic biomarkers (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and HbA1c) in the association between specific multimorbidity combinations (grouped around one of eight index diseases: arthritis, cancer, cognitive impairment, diabetes, heart disease, hypertension, lung disease, and stroke; assessed between 2006 and 2014) and prospective ADL-IADL disability (2 years later, 2008-2016). Results were adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics, body mass index, number of coexisting diseases, and baseline ADL-IADL score. RESULTS: Multimorbidity combinations indexed by arthritis (IRR = 1.1, 95% CI = 1.01-1.20), diabetes (IRR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.09-1.30), and cognitive impairment (IRR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.01-1.23) among men and diabetes-indexed multimorbidity combinations (IRR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.01-1.14) among women were associated with higher ADL-IADL scores at increasing levels of HbA1c. Across higher levels of hs-CRP, multimorbidity combinations indexed by arthritis (IRR = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.02-1.11), hypertension (IRR = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.02-1.11), heart disease (IRR = 1.06, 95% CI = 1.01-1.12), and lung disease (IRR = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.07-1.23) were associated with higher ADL-IADL scores among women, while there were no significant associations among men. CONCLUSION: The findings suggest potential for anti-inflammatory management among older women and optimal glycemic control among older men with these particular multimorbidity combinations as focus for therapeutic/preventive options for maintaining functional health.

Racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic disparities in trajectories of morbidity accumulation among older Americans.

Introduction: Multimorbidity, the presence of multiple chronic health conditions, generally starts in middle and older age but there is considerable heterogeneity in the trajectory of morbidity accumulation. This study aimed to clarify the number of distinct trajectories and the potential associations between race/ethnicity and socioeconomic status and these trajectories. Methods: Data from 13,699 respondents (age ≥51) in the Health and Retirement Study between 1998 and 2016 were analyzed with growth mixture models. Nine prevalent self-reported morbidities (arthritis, cancer, cognitive impairment, depressive symptoms, diabetes, heart disease, hypertension, lung disease, stroke) were summed for the morbidity count. Results: Three trajectories of morbidity accumulation were identified: low [starting with few morbidities and accumulating them slowly (i.e., low intercept and low slope); 80% of sample], increasing (i.e., low intercept and high slope; 9%), and high (i.e., high intercept and low slope; 11%). Compared to non-Hispanic (NH) White adults in covariate-adjusted models, NH Black adults had disadvantages while Hispanic adults had advantages. Our results suggest a protective effect of education for NH Black adults (i.e., racial health disparities observed at low education were ameliorated and then eliminated at increasing levels of education) and a reverse pattern for Hispanic adults (i.e., increasing levels of education was found to dampen the advantages Hispanic adults had at low education). Compared with NH White adults, higher levels of wealth were protective for both NH Black adults (i.e., reducing or reversing racial health disparities observed at low wealth) and Hispanic adults (i.e., increasing the initial health advantages observed at low wealth). Conclusion: These findings have implications for addressing health disparities through more precise targeting of public health interventions. This work highlights the imperative to address socioeconomic inequalities that interact with race/ethnicity in complex ways to erode health.

Health equity considerations in pragmatic trials in Alzheimer's and dementia disease: Results from a methodological review.

Introduction: To improve dementia care delivery for persons across all backgrounds, it is imperative that health equity is integrated into pragmatic trials. Methods: We reviewed 62 pragmatic trials of people with dementia published 2014 to 2019. We assessed health equity in the objectives; design, conduct, analysis; and reporting using PROGRESS-Plus which stands for Place of residence, Race/ethnicity, Occupation, Gender/sex, Religion, Education, Socioeconomic status, Social capital, and other factors such as age and disability. Results: Two (3.2%) trials incorporated equity considerations into their objectives; nine (14.5%) engaged with communities; 4 (6.5%) described steps to increase enrollment from equity-relevant groups. Almost all trials (59, 95.2%) assessed baseline balance for at least one PROGRESS-Plus characteristic, but only 10 (16.1%) presented subgroup analyses across such characteristics. Differential recruitment, attrition, implementation, adherence, and applicability across PROGRESS-Plus were seldom discussed. Discussion: Ongoing and future pragmatic trials should more rigorously integrate equity considerations in their design, conduct, and reporting. Highlights: Few pragmatic trials are explicitly designed to inform equity-relevant objectives.Few pragmatic trials take steps to increase enrollment from equity-relevant groups.Disaggregated results across equity-relevant groups are seldom reported.Adherence to existing tools (e.g., IMPACT Best Practices, CONSORT-Equity) is key.

Simultaneously Developing Interventions for Low-/Middle-Income and High-Income Settings: Considerations and Opportunities.

Most older adults reside in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) but most research dollars spent on interventions to improve the lives of older adults are awarded to researchers in high-income countries (HICs). One approach to improve the implementation of evidence-based innovations for older adults in LMICs is designing interventions that are relevant to LMICs and HICs simultaneously. We propose that researchers in HICs could partner with stakeholders in an LMIC throughout the intervention design process to better position their intervention for the implementation in that LMIC. We provide an example study from an adaptation of the Resources for Enhancing Caregiver Health II in Vietnam, which did not use this strategy but may have benefited from this strategy. We then turn to several considerations that are important for researchers to contemplate when incorporating this strategy. Finally, we explore incentives for creating interventions that are relevant to both HICs and LMICs for funders, intervention designers, and intervention receivers. Although this is not the only strategy to bring interventions to LMICs, it may represent another tool in researchers' toolboxes to help expedite the implementation of efficacious interventions in LMICs.

Depressive Multimorbidity and Trajectories of Functional Status among Older Americans: Differences by Racial/Ethnic Group.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to evaluate the impact of depressive multimorbidity (ie, including depressive symptoms) on the long-term development of activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) limitations according to racial/ethnic group in a representative sample of US older adults. DESIGN: Prospective, observational, population-based 16-year follow-up study of nationally representative sample. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Sample of older non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and nonHispanic White Americans from the Health and Retirement Study (2000‒2016, N = 16,364, community-dwelling adults ≥65 years of age). METHODS: Data from 9 biennial assessments were used to evaluate the accumulation of ADL-IADL limitations (range 0‒11) among participants with depressive (8-item Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression score≥4) vs somatic (ie, physical conditions only) multimorbidity vs those without multimorbidity (no or 1 condition). Generalized estimating equations included race/ethnicity (non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, non-Hispanic White), baseline age, sex, body mass index, education, partnered, and net worth. RESULTS: Depressive and somatic multimorbidity were associated with 5.18 and 2.95 times greater accumulation of functional limitations, respectively, relative to no disease [incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 5.18, 95% confidence interval, CI (4.38,6.13), IRR = 2.95, 95% CI (2.51,3.48)]. Hispanic and Black respondents experienced greater accumulation of ADL-IADL limitations than White respondents [IRR = 1.27, 95% CI (1.14, 1.41), IRR = 1.31, 95% CI (1.20, 1.43), respectively]. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Combinations of somatic diseases and high depressive symptoms are associated with greatest accumulation of functional limitations over time in adults ages 65 and older. There is a more rapid growth in functional limitations among individuals from racial/ethnic minority groups. Given the high prevalence of multimorbidity and depressive symptomatology among older adults and the availability of treatment options for depression, these results highlight the importance of screening/treatment for depression, particularly among older adults with socioeconomic vulnerabilities, to slow the progression of functional decline in later life.

Best Practice Recommendations for Integrating Health Equity into Pragmatic Clinical Trials for Dementia Care.

Context: Minoritized populations experience higher rates of dementia and worse health outcomes than non-Hispanic white people, but they are vastly underrepresented in pragmatic clinical trials embedded in health care systems (ePCTs). Little guidance is available to consider health equity-relevant issues in ePCTs. Objective: This report describes the development, structure, and content of a guidance document developed by the National Institute on Aging Imbedded Pragmatic AD/ADRD Clinical Trials (IMPACT) Collaboratory to help investigators systematically assess the integration of health equity into all aspects of ePCT design. Design: Led by a task force of IMPACT investigators, a literature review of existing frameworks for health equity considerations in clinical trials was conducted. Next, priority health equity-relevant recommendations in the domains of ePCT design were solicited from Collaboratory experts. The 50 submitted recommendations were reduced to 36 nonoverlapping best practices and categorized into 6 domains, as follows: Getting Started, Community Stakeholder Engagement, Design and Analysis, Intervention Design and Implementation, Health Care System and Participant Selection, and Selecting Outcomes. Each domain had 6 best practice recommendations consisting of a succinctly worded main sentence, with 1 to 2 explanatory sentences. The content was finalized through an iterative process of editing and revision. Conclusions: Although specifically focused on ePCTs involving dementia care, the best practices are applicable to any ePCT and can be useful to advance health equity in traditional clinical trials. This guidance document provides a first step toward promoting holistic, structured integration of health equity into the design and conduct of ePCTs as a matter of good science.

Multidimensional trajectories of multimorbidity, functional status, cognitive performance, and depressive symptoms among diverse groups of older adults.

Background: Inter-relationships between multimorbidity and geriatric syndromes are poorly understood. This study assesses heterogeneity in joint trajectories of somatic disease, functional status, cognitive performance, and depressive symptomatology. Methods: We analyzed 16 years of longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS, 1998-2016) for n = 11,565 older adults (≥65 years) in the United States. Group-based mixture modeling identified latent clusters of older adults following similar joint trajectories across domains. Results: We identified four distinct multidimensional trajectory groups: (1) Minimal Impairment with Low Multimorbidity (32.7% of the sample; mean = 0.60 conditions at age 65, 2.1 conditions at age 90) had limited deterioration; (2) Minimal Impairment with High Multimorbidity (32.9%; mean = 2.3 conditions at age 65, 4.0 at age 90) had minimal deterioration; (3) Multidomain Impairment with Intermediate Multimorbidity (19.9%; mean = 1.3 conditions at age 65, 2.7 at age 90) had moderate depressive symptomatology and functional impariments with worsening cognitive performance; (4) Multidomain Impairment with High Multimorbidity (14.1%; mean = 3.3 conditions at age 65; 4.7 at age 90) had substantial functional limitation and high depressive symptomatology with worsening cognitive performance. Black and Hispanic race/ethnicity, lower wealth, lower education, male sex, and smoking history were significantly associated with membership in the two Multidomain Impairment classes. Conclusions: There is substantial heterogeneity in combined trajectories of interrelated health domains in late life. Membership in the two most impaired classes was more likely for minoritized older adults.

The Contribution of Chronic Conditions to Hospitalization, Skilled Nursing Facility Admission, and Death: Variation by Race.

Multimorbidity (≥2 chronic conditions) is a common and important marker of aging. To better understand racial differences in multimorbidity burden and associations with important health-related outcomes, we assessed differences in the contribution of chronic conditions to hospitalization, skilled nursing facility admission, and mortality among non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic White older adults in the United States. We used data from a nationally representative study, the National Health and Aging Trends Study, linked to Medicare claims from 2011-2015 (n = 4,871 respondents). This analysis improved upon prior research by identifying the absolute contributions of chronic conditions using a longitudinal extension of the average attributable fraction for Black and White Medicare beneficiaries. We found that cardiovascular conditions were the greatest contributors to outcomes among White respondents, while the greatest contributor to outcomes for Black respondents was renal morbidity. This study provides important insights into racial differences in the contributions of chronic conditions to costly health-care utilization and mortality, and it prompts policy-makers to champion delivery reforms that will expand access to preventive and ongoing care for diverse Medicare beneficiaries.

Comparing the association between multiple chronic conditions, multimorbidity, frailty, and survival among older patients with cancer.

INTRODUCTION: The high prevalence of multiple chronic conditions (MCC), multimorbidity, and frailty may affect treatment and outcomes for older adults with cancer. The goal of this study was to use three conceptually distinct measures of morbidity to examine the association between these measures and mortality. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using Medicare claims data linked with the 2012-2016 Ohio Cancer Incidence Surveillance System we identified older adults with incident primary cancer sites of breast, colorectal, lung, or prostate (n = 29,140). We used claims data to identify their Elixhauser comorbidities, Multimorbidity-Weighted Index (MWI), and Claims Frailty Index (CFI) as measures of MCC, multimorbidity, and frailty, respectively. We used Cox proportional hazard models to examine the association between these measures and survival time since diagnosis. RESULTS: Lung cancer patients had the highest levels of MCC, multimorbidity, and frailty. There was a positive association between all three measures and a greater hazard of death after adjusting for age, sex (colorectal and lung only), and stage. Breast cancer patients with 5+ comorbidities had an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 1.63 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.38, 1.93), and those with mild frailty had an aHR of 3.38 (95% CI; 2.12, 5.41). The C statistics for breast cancer were 0.79, 0.78, and 0.79 for the MCC, MWI, and CFI respectively. Similarly, lung cancer patients who were moderately or severely frail had an aHR of 1.82 (95% CI: 1.53, 2.18) while prostate cancer patients had an aHR of 3.39 (95% CI: 2.12, 5.41) and colorectal cancer patients had an aHR of 4.51 (95% CI: 3.23, 6.29). Model performance was nearly identical across the MCC, multimorbidity, and frailty models within cancer type. The models performed best for prostate and breast cancer, and notably worse for lung cancer. The frailty models showed the greatest separation in unadjusted survival curves. DISCUSSION: The MCC, multimorbidity, and frailty indices performed similarly well in predicting mortality among a large cohort of older cancer patients. However, there were notable differences by cancer type. This work highlights that although model performance is similar, frailty may serve as a clearer indicator in risk stratification of geriatric oncology patients than simple MCCs or multimorbidity.

Cohort Trends in the Burden of Multiple Chronic Conditions Among Aging U.S. Adults.

OBJECTIVES: Multimorbidity, also referred to as multiple chronic conditions (MCCs), is the concurrent presence of 2 or more chronic health conditions. Increasing multimorbidity represents a substantial threat to the health of aging populations. Recent trends suggest greater risk of poor health and mortality among later-born cohorts, yet we are unaware of work examining cohort differences in multimorbidity among aging U.S. adults. METHODS: We examine intercohort variation in MCC burden in adults aged 51 years and older using 20 years (n = 33,598; 1998-2018) of repeated assessment drawn from the Health and Retirement Study. The index of MCCs included 9 chronic conditions (heart disease, hypertension, stroke, diabetes, arthritis, lung disease, cancer excluding skin cancer, high depressive symptoms, and cognitive impairment). We used linear mixed models with various approaches to estimate age/period/cohort effects to model intercohort patterns in MCC burden. We also explored variation in the specific conditions driving cohort differences in multimorbidity. RESULTS: More recent cohorts had greater MCC burden and developed multimorbidity at earlier ages than those born to prior generations. The burden of chronic conditions was patterned by life-course sociodemographic factors and childhood health for all cohorts. Among adults with multimorbidity, arthritis and hypertension were the most prevalent conditions for all cohorts, and there was evidence that high depressive symptoms and diabetes contributed to the observed cohort differences in multimorbidity risk. DISCUSSION: Our results suggest increasing multimorbidity burden among more recently born cohorts of aging U.S. adults and should inform policy to address diminishing health in aging populations.

Prediction of Future Health Care Utilization Through Note-extracted Psychosocial Factors.

BACKGROUND: Persons with multimorbidity (≥2 chronic conditions) face an increased risk of poor health outcomes, especially as they age. Psychosocial factors such as social isolation, chronic stress, housing insecurity, and financial insecurity have been shown to exacerbate these outcomes, but are not routinely assessed during the clinical encounter. Our objective was to extract these concepts from chart notes using natural language processing and predict their impact on health care utilization for patients with multimorbidity. METHODS: A cohort study to predict the 1-year likelihood of hospitalizations and emergency department visits for patients 65+ with multimorbidity with and without psychosocial factors. Psychosocial factors were extracted from narrative notes; all other covariates were extracted from electronic health record data from a large academic medical center using validated algorithms and concept sets. Logistic regression was performed to predict the likelihood of hospitalization and emergency department visit in the next year. RESULTS: In all, 76,479 patients were eligible; the majority were White (89%), 54% were female, with mean age 73. Those with psychosocial factors were older, had higher baseline utilization, and more chronic illnesses. The 4 psychosocial factors all independently predicted future utilization (odds ratio=1.27-2.77, C -statistic=0.63). Accounting for demographics, specific conditions, and previous utilization, 3 of 4 of the extracted factors remained predictive (odds ratio=1.13-1.86) for future utilization. Compared with models with no psychosocial factors, they had improved discrimination. Individual predictions were mixed, with social isolation predicting depression and morbidity; stress predicting atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease onset; and housing insecurity predicting substance use disorder morbidity. DISCUSSION: Psychosocial factors are known to have adverse health impacts, but are rarely measured; using natural language processing, we extracted factors that identified a higher risk segment of older adults with multimorbidity. Combining these extraction techniques with other measures of social determinants may help catalyze population health efforts to address psychosocial factors to mitigate their health impacts.