Ecological niche modeling to determine potential niche of Vaccinia virus: a case only study.

BACKGROUND: Emerging and understudied pathogens often lack information that most commonly used analytical tools require, such as negative controls or baseline data; thus, new analytical strategies are needed to analyze transmission patterns and drivers of disease emergence. Zoonotic infections with Vaccinia virus (VACV) were first reported in Brazil in 1999, VACV is an emerging zoonotic Orthopoxvirus, which primarily infects dairy cattle and farmers in close contact with infected cows. Prospective studies of emerging pathogens could provide critical data that would inform public health planning and response to outbreaks. By using the location of 87-recorded outbreaks and publicly available bioclimatic data, we demonstrate one such approach. Using an ecological niche model (ENM) algorithm, we identify the environmental conditions under which VACV outbreaks have occurred, and determine additional locations in two affected countries that may be susceptible to transmission. Further, we show how suitability for the virus responds to different levels of various environmental factors and highlight the most important factors in determining its transmission. METHODS: A literature review was performed and the geospatial coordinates of 87 molecularly confirmed VACV outbreaks in Brazil were identified. An ENM was generated using MaxENT software by combining principal component analysis results of 19 bioclim spatial layers, and 25 randomly selected subsets of the original list of 87 outbreaks. RESULTS: The final ENM predicted all areas where Brazilian outbreaks occurred, one out of five of the Colombian outbreak regions and identified new regions within Brazil that are suitable for transmission based on bioclimatic factors. Further, the most important factors in determining transmission suitability are precipitation of the wettest quarter, annual precipitation, mean temperature of the coldest quarter and mean diurnal range. CONCLUSION: The analyses here provide a means by which to study patterns of an emerging infectious disease and identify regions that are potentially suitable for its transmission, in spite of the paucity of high-quality critical data. Policy and methods for the control of infectious diseases often use a reactionary model, addressing diseases only after significant impact on human health has ensued. The methodology used in the present work allows the identification of areas where disease is likely to appear, which could be used for directed intervention.

Presumptive risk factors for monkeypox in rural communities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Monkeypox virus (MPXV), a close relative of Variola virus, is a zoonotic virus with an unknown reservoir. Interaction with infected wildlife, bites from peri-domestic animals, and bushmeat hunting are hypothesized routes of infection from wildlife to humans. Using a Risk Questionnaire, performed in monkeypox-affected areas of rural Democratic Republic of the Congo, we describe the lifestyles and demographics associated with presumptive risk factors for MPXV infection. We generated two indices to assess risk: Household Materials Index (HMI), a proxy for socioeconomic status of households and Risk Activity Index (RAI), which describes presumptive risk for animal-to-human transmission of MPXV. Based on participant self-reported activity patterns, we found that people in this population are more likely to visit the forest than a market to fulfill material needs, and that the reported occupation is limited in describing behavior of individuals may participate. Being bitten by rodents in the home was commonly reported, and this was significantly associated with a low HMI. The highest scoring RAI sub-groups were 'hunters' and males aged ≥ 18 years; however, several activities involving MPXV-implicated animals were distributed across all sub-groups. The current analysis may be useful in identifying at-risk groups and help to direct education, outreach and prevention efforts more efficiently.

Increased replicative fitness of a dengue virus 2 clade in native mosquitoes: potential contribution to a clade replacement event in Nicaragua.

UNLABELLED: The four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes (DENV serotype 1 [DENV-1] to DENV-4) are transmitted by Aedes aegypti and A. albopictus mosquitoes, causing up to 390 million DENV infections worldwide each year. We previously reported a clade replacement of the DENV-2 Asian-American genotype NI-1 clade by the NI-2B clade in Managua, Nicaragua. Here, we describe our studies of the replicative ability of NI-1 and NI-2B viruses in an A. aegypti cell line (Aag2) and A. aegypti mosquitoes reared from eggs collected in Managua. In coinfection experiments, several different pairs of NI-1 and NI-2B clinical isolates were used to infect Aag2 cells or blood-fed A. aegypti mosquitoes. Results consistently showed a significant replicative advantage of NI-2B over NI-1 viruses early after infection in vitro, and in mosquitoes, NI-2B viruses attained a higher replicative index than NI-1 isolates 3 to 7 days postinfection (dpi). At 7 dpi, NI-2B viruses displayed a significantly higher replicative index in legs and salivary glands; however, this advantage was lost by 14 and 21 dpi. We also found that the percentage of mosquitoes in which NI-2B viruses were dominant was significantly higher than that in which NI-1 viruses were dominant on day 7 but not at later time points. Taken together, these data demonstrate that clade NI-2B holds a replicative advantage over clade NI-1 early in infection that wanes at later time points. This early fitness advantage of NI-2B viruses over NI-1 viruses in the native vector, A. aegypti, suggests a shorter extrinsic incubation period for NI-2B viruses, which could have contributed to the clade replacement event in Managua. IMPORTANCE: Dengue virus (DENV), one of the most medically important arthropod-borne viruses, is transmitted to humans by Aedes aegypti and A. albopictus mosquitoes in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. Dengue epidemics continue to increase in frequency, geographic range, and severity and are a major public health concern. This is due to globalization, unplanned urbanization, and climate change, as well as host genetics and immune responses and viral genetic changes. DENV consists of four serotypes, in turn composed of genotypes and genetically distinct clades. What drives the frequent replacement of a previously circulating DENV clade by another is unclear. Here, we investigate the replicative fitness of two clades of DENV serotype 2 in Aedes aegypti cells and mosquitoes collected from the region where the viruses circulated and conclude that increased replicative fitness could have contributed to a DENV clade replacement event in Nicaragua. These findings provide insight into vector-driven evolution of DENV epidemics.

Fragmentation of the Golgi apparatus provides replication membranes for human rhinovirus 1A.

All viruses with a positive-stranded RNA genome replicate their genomic RNA in association with membranes from the host cell. Here we demonstrate a novel organelle source of replication membranes for human rhinovirus 1A (HRV-1A). HRV-1A infection induces fragmentation of the Golgi apparatus, and Golgi membranes are rearranged into vesicles of approximately 250-500 nm diameter. The newly distributed Golgi membranes co-localize with viral RNA replication templates, strongly suggesting that the observed vesicles are the sites of viral RNA replication. Expression of the HRV-1A 3A protein induces alterations in the Golgi staining pattern similar to those seen during viral infection, and expressed 3A localizes to the Golgi-derived membranes. Taken together, these data show that in HRV-1A infection, the 3A protein plays a role in fragmenting the Golgi complex and generating vesicles that are used as the site of viral RNA replication.