The health state of France before COVID-19 pandemic between 1990 and 2019: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

Background: France faces nowadays some major challenges regarding its health care system including medically underserved areas, social health inequalities, and hospital pressures. Various indicators and sources of data allow us to describe the health status of a population and, consequently, to assess the impact of these challenges. We assessed the burden of diseases before COVID-19 in France in 2019 and its evolution from 1990 to 2019, and compared it with Western European countries. Methods: We used specific Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) metrics: socio-demographic index (SDI), life expectancy (LE), healthy life expectancy (HALE), years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) with their 95% uncertainty interval (95% UI). We compared French age-standardized metrics to those for other Western European Countries for both sexes and also between 1990 and 2019. We also described the specific causes of these different metrics. Findings: We observed for life expectancy at birth in France a trend to an improvement over time from 77.2 (95% UI: 77.2-77.3) years in 1990 to 82.9 (82.7-83.1) in 2019, which represented the seventh highest life expectancy among 23 Western European countries. HALE at birth in France increased from 67.0 (64.0-69.7) to 71.5 (68.1-74.5), which represented the fourth highest HALE among 23 Western European countries. In France, the total number of DALY per 100.000 population tended to decrease from 25,192 (22,374-28,351) in 1990 to 18,782 (16,408-21,920) in 2019. As compared to other European countries, the burden due to cardiovascular diseases was lower. Neoplasms and cardio-vascular diseases were the two leading causes of YLLs. Mental and musculoskeletal disorders were the two leading causes of YLDs. Interpretation: Overall, these results highlight a clear trend of improvement in the health status in France with certain differences between western European countries. The health policy makers need to devise interventional strategies to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries, with specific attention to causes such as cancers, cardiovascular diseases, mental health and musculoskeletal disorders. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

One-year emergency department visits for children < 18 years of age, associated factors and frequency of primary general practitioner or pediatrician visits before: a French observational study (2018-19).

BACKGROUND: This study was designed to identify factors associated with at least one emergency department (ED) visit and those associated without consultation by a general practitioner or paediatrician (GPP) before ED visit. Levels of annual consumption of healthcare services as a function of the number of ED visit were reported. METHODS: This retrospective study focused on children < 18 years of age living in mainland France and followed for one-year after their birth or birthday in 2018. Children were selected from the national health data system, which includes data on healthcare reimbursements, long-term chronic diseases (LTD) eligible for 100% reimbursement, and individual complementary universal insurance (CMUc) status granted to households with a low annual income. Adjusted odds ratios (OR) were estimated using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: There were 13.211 million children included (94.2% of children; girls 48.8%). At least one annual ED visit was found for 24% (1: 16%, 2: 5%, 3 or more: 3%) and 14% of visits led to hospitalization. Factors significantly associated with at least one ED visit were being a girl (47.1%; OR = 0.92), age < 1 year (9.1%; OR = 2.85), CMUc (22.7%, OR = 1.45), an ED in the commune of residence (33.3%, OR = 1.15), type 1 diabetes (0.25%; OR = 2.4), epilepsy (0.28%; OR = 2.1), and asthma (0.39%; OR = 2.0). At least one annual short stay hospitalisation (SSH) was found for 8.8% children of which 3.4% after an ED visit. A GPP visit the three days before or the day of the ED visit was found for 19% of children (< 1 year: 29%, 14-17 years: 13%). It was 30% when the ED was followed by SSH and 17% when not. Significant factors associated with the absence of a GPP visit were being a girl (OR = 0.9), age (1 year OR = 1.4, 14-17 years OR = 3.5), presence of an ED in the commune of residence (OR = 1.12), epilepsy LTD (OR = 1.1). CONCLUSION: The low level of visits to GPP prior to a visit to the ED and the associated factors are the elements to be taken into account for appropriate policies to limit ED overcrowding. The same applies to factors associated with a visit to the ED, in order to limit daily variations.

Predicting the risk of becoming eligible for the disability pension: Machine learning methods applied to French health data / Prédire le passage en invalidité : les méthodes d'apprentissage automatique appliquées aux données de santé françaises

Introduction: Benefiting from the disability pension implies morbid (physical and psychological) and social (fall in income) implications for the person. It also has economic consequences for society, with increasing expenses since 2011 (+4.9% on average per year). Investing in preventive actions against the loss of the ability to work should limit these consequences, but it requires targeting people at risk. The development of artificial intelligence opens up prospects in this regard. Purpose of the Research: To target, using supervised machine learning methods, those people with a high probability of becoming eligible for the disability pension over the course of the year based on their socio-demographic and medical characteristics (pathologies, work stoppages, drugs taken, and medical procedures). Method: Among the beneficiaries of the French public welfare system aged 20­64 in 2017, we compared the socio-demographic and medical characteristics between 2014 and 2016 of those who received a disability pension in 2017 and not before, and those who did not receive a disability pension from 2014 to 2017. The determination of the boundary between these two groups was tested using logistic regression, decision trees, random forests, naive Bayes classifiers, and support vector machines. The models' performance was compared with respect to accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, and AUC (area under the curve). Finally, the predictive power of each factor was measured by AUC too. Results: The boosted logistic regression had the best performance for three of the five criteria, but low sensitivity. The best sensitivity was obtained with the support vector machines, with an accuracy close to that of the boosted logistic regression, but a lower precision and specificity. Random forests offered the best discriminatory ability. The naive Bayes classifier had the worst performance. The most predictive factors in becoming eligible for the disability pension were having 30 days or more off sick in 2014, 2015, and 2016 and being aged 55 to 64. Conclusion: Supervised learning methods have appeared relevant for identifying people with the highest probability of becoming eligible for the disability pension and, more broadly, for steering public and social policies.

Introduction: Le recours à la pension d'invalidité a des implications morbides (physiques ou psychiques) et sociales (baisse du revenu). Il a aussi des conséquences économiques pour la société, avec des dépenses croissantes depuis 2011 (+4,9 % en moyenne par année). Prévenir la perte de la capacité à travailler devrait permettre de limiter ces conséquences, mais nécessite de cibler les personnes à risque. Le développement des méthodes d'intelligence artificielle ouvre des perspectives en ce sens. But de l'étude: Cibler les personnes ayant une « forte ¼ probabilité de devenir bénéficiaires d'une pension d'invalidité dans l'année au regard de leurs caractéristiques sociodémographiques et médicales (pathologies, arrêts de travail, médicaments et actes médicaux) à partir de méthodes d'apprentissage automatique supervisé. Méthodes: Parmi les bénéficiaires du régime général âgés de 21 à 64 ans en 2017, comparaison des caractéristiques de 2014 à 2016 entre les nouveaux bénéficiaires d'une pension d'invalidité en 2017 et ceux n'en bénéficiant pas. La détermination de la frontière entre ces deux groupes a été testée à l'aide de la régression logistique, des arbres de décision, des forêts aléatoires, de la classification naïve bayésienne et des séparateurs à vaste marge. Les performances des modèles ont été comparées au regard de la justesse, la précision, la sensibilité, la spécificité et l'AUC (Area Under the Curve). Le pouvoir prédictif de chaque facteur est estimé à partir de l'AUC. Résultats: La régression logistique boostée avait les meilleures performances sur trois des cinq critères retenus, mais une faible sensibilité. La meilleure sensibilité était obtenue avec les séparateurs à vaste marge, avec une justesse proche de la régression logistique boostée mais une précision et une spécificité inférieures. Les forêts aléatoires offraient la meilleure capacité discriminatoire. Les facteurs les plus prédictifs du risque de passer en invalidité étaient le bénéfice d'au moins 30 jours d'indemnités journalières pour maladie en 2014, 2015 et 2016 et le fait d'être âgé de 55 à 64 ans. Conclusion: Les méthodes d'apprentissage supervisé sont apparues pertinentes pour le ciblage des personnes les plus à risque de recourir à la pension d'invalidité et, plus largement, pour le pilotage d'autres prestations sociales.

A French nationwide study compared various conditions and healthcare use of individuals < 65 years with a Down's syndrome to those without.

Few regular national clinical data are available for individuals with Down's syndrome (IDS) bearing in mind that they are subject to countries variations in medical termination of pregnancy and screening. Individuals < 65 in 2019 were selected in view of the low number of older IDS. Thus, 98% of 52.4 million people with correct data were included from the national health data system. IDS (35,342) were identified on the basis of the International Classification of Diseases 10th revision code (Q90). Risk ratios (RR) were calculated to compare the frequencies in 2019 between IDS and individual without Down's syndrome (IWDS) of use of health care. The prevalence of IDS was 0.07% (48% women), comorbidities were more frequent, especially in younger patients (24% < 1 year had another comorbidity, RR = 20), as was the percentage of deaths (4.6%, RR = 10). Overall, tumours were less frequent in IDS compared with IWDS (1.2%, RR = 0.7) except for certain leukaemias and testicular tumours (0.3%, RR = 4). Cardiac malformations (5.2%, RR = 52), dementia (1.2%, RR = 29), mental retardation (5%, RR = 21) and epilepsy (4%, RR = 9) were also more frequent in IDS. The most frequent hospital diagnoses for IDS were: aspiration pneumonia (0.7%, RR = 89), respiratory failure (0.4%, RR = 17), sleep apnoea (1.1%, RR = 8), cryptorchidism (0.3%, RR = 5.9), protein-energy malnutrition (0.1%, RR = 7), type 1 diabetes (0.2%, RR = 2.8) and hypothyroidism (0.1%, RR = 72). IDS were more likely to use emergency services (9%, RR = 2.4), short hospital stay (24%, RR = 1.6) or hospitalisation at home (0.6%, RR = 6). They consulted certain specialists two to three times more frequently than IWDS, for example cardiologists (17%, RR = 2.6). This study is the first detailed national study comparing IDS and non-IDS by age group. These results could help to optimize prenatal healthcare, medical and social support.

Cross-validation of comorbidity items in two national databases in a sample of patients with end-stage kidney disease.

BACKGROUND: The use of national medico-administrative databases for epidemiological studies has increased in the last decades. In France, the Healthcare Expenditures and Conditions Mapping (HECM) algorithm has been developed to analyse and monitor the morbidity and economic burden of 58 diseases. We aimed to assess the performance of the HECM in identifying different conditions in patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) using data from the REIN registry (the French National Registry for patients with ESKD). METHODS: We included all patients over 18 years of age who started renal replacement therapy in France in 2018. Five conditions with a similar definition in both databases were included (ESKD, diabetes, human immunodeficiency virus [HIV], coronary insufficiency, and cancer). The performance of each SNDS algorithm was assessed using sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values (PPVs), negative predictive values (NPVs), and Cohen's kappa coefficient. RESULTS: In total 5,971 patients were included. Among them, 81% were identified as having ESKD in both databases. Diabetes was the condition with the best performance, with a sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and Kappa coefficient all over 80%. Cancer had the lowest level of agreement with a Kappa coefficient of 51% and a high specificity and high NPV (94% and 95%). The conditions for which the definition in the HECM included disease-specific medications performed better in our study. CONCLUSION: The HECM showed good to very good concordance with the REIN database information overall, with the exception of cancer. Further validation of the HECM tool in other populations should be performed.

Individual and contextual risk factors for mortality in nursing home residents during the first wave of COVID-19 in France: a multilevel analysis of a nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Mortality amongst nursing home (NH) residents increased by 43% during the first wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We estimated the 'contextual effect' on mortality, tried to explain it by NH characteristics and identified resident- and NH-level risk factors for mortality. METHODS: The contextual effect was measured for two cohorts of NH residents managed by the general scheme in metropolitan France (RESIDESMS data from 03/01/2020 to 05/31/2020 and 03/01/2019 to 05/31/2019) by the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) estimated from mixed-effects logistic regression. RESULTS: Amongst 385,300 residents (5,339 NHs) included in 2020 (median age 89 years, 25% men), 9.1% died, versus 6.7% of 379,926 residents (5,270 NHs) in 2019. In the empty model, the ICC was 9.3% in 2020 and 1.5% in 2019. Only the geographic location partially explained the heterogeneity observed in 2020 (ICC: 6.5% after adjustment). Associations with mortality were stronger in 2020 than in 2019 for male sex and diabetes and weaker for heart disease, chronic respiratory disease and residence <6 months. Mortality was higher in 2020 (15.1%) than 2019 (6.3%) in NHs with at least one death with a mention of COVID-19 and more heterogeneous (ICC: 8.0%) than in the others (mortality: 6.7% in both years; ICC: 1.1%). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the COVID-19 crisis had a heterogeneous impact on mortality in NH residents and that geographic location explain a part of the contextual effect, which appears to have had little influence on mortality in NHs not being affected by the virus.

Factors associated with hospital admission and 30-day readmission for children less than 18 years of age in 2018 in France: a one-year nationwide observational study.

BACKGROUND: Nationwide data for children for short-stay hospitalisation (SSH) and associated factors are scarce. This retrospective study of children in France < 18 years of age followed after their birth or birthday in 2018 focused on at least one annual SSH, stay < 1 night or ≥ 1 night, or 30-day readmission ≥ 1 night. METHODS: Children were selected from the national health data system (SNDS), which includes data on long-term chronic disease (LTD) status with full reimbursement and complementary universal coverage based on low household income (CMUC). Uni and multivariate quasi-Poisson regression were applied for each outcome. RESULTS: Among 13.211 million children (94.4% population, 51.2% boys), CMUC was identified for 17.5% and at least one LTD for 4% (0-<1 year: 1.5%; 14-<18 year: 5.2%). The most frequent LTDs were pervasive developmental diseases (0.53%), asthma (0.24%), epilepsy (0.17%), and type 1 diabetes (0.15%). At least one SSH was found for 8.8%: SSH < 1 night (4.9%), SSH ≥ 1 night (4.5%), readmission (0.4%). Children with at least one SSH were younger (median 6 vs. 9 years) and more often had CMUC (21%), a LTD (12%), an emergency department (ED) visit (56%), or various primary healthcare visits than all children. Those with a SSH ≥1 night vs. < 1 night were older (median: 9 vs. 4 years). They had the same frequency of LTD (13.4%) but more often an ED visit (78% vs. 42%). Children with readmissions were younger (median 3 years). They had the highest levels of CMUC (29.3%), LTD (34%), EDs in their municipality (35% vs. 29% for the whole population) and ED visits (87%). In adjusted analysis, each outcome was significantly less frequent among girls than boys and more frequent for children with CMUC. LTDs with the largest association with SSH < 1 night were cystic fibrosis, sickle cell diseases (SCD), diabetes type 1, those with SSH ≥1 night type 1 diabetes epilepsy and SCD, and those for readmissions lymphoid leukaemia, malignant neoplasm of the brain, and SCD. Among all SSH admissions of children < 10 years, 25.8% were potentially preventable. CONCLUSION: Higher SSH and readmission rates were found for children with certain LTD living in low-income households, suggesting the need or increase of specific policy actions and research.

Social deprivation and the use of healthcare services over one year by children less than 18 years of age in 2018: A French nationwide observational study.

This study aimed to describe the health status of children and how social deprivation affects their use of healthcare services and mortality. Children living in mainland France were selected from the national health data system (SNDS) on their date of birth or birthday in 2018 (< 18 years) and followed for one year. Information included data on healthcare reimbursements, long-term chronic diseases (LTDs) eligible for 100% reimbursement, geographic deprivation index (FDep) by quintile (Q5 most disadvantaged), and individual complementary universal insurance (CMUc) status, granted to households with an annual income below the French poverty level. The number of children who had at least one annual visit or hospital admission was compared using the ratio of geographic deprivation (rQ5/Q1) and CMUc (rCMUc/Not) after gender and age-standardization. Over 13 million children were included; 17.5% had CMUc, with an increase across quintiles (rQ5/Q1 = 3.5) and 4.0% a LTD (rQ5/Q1 = 1.44). The 10 most frequent LTDs (6 psychiatric) were more common as the deprivation increased. Visits to general practitioners (GPs) were similar (≈84%) for each FDep quintile and the density of GPs similar. The density decreased with increasing deprivation for specialists and visits: paediatricians (rQ5/Q1 = 0.46) and psychiatrists (rQ5/Q1 = 0.26). Dentist visits also decreased (rQ5/Q1 = 0.86) and deprived children were more often hospitalised for dental caries (rQ5/Q1 = 2.17, 2.1% vs 0.7%). Emergency department (ED) visits increased with deprivation (rCMUc/Not = 1.35, 30% vs 22%) but 50% of CMUc children lived in a municipality with an ED vs. 25% without. Approximately 9% of children were admitted for a short stay and 4.5% for a stay > 1 night (rQ5/Q1 = 1.44). Psychiatric hospitalization was more frequent for children with CMUc (rCMUc/Not = 3.5, 0.7% vs 0.2%). Higher mortality was observed for deprived children < 18 years (rQ5/Q1 = 1.59). Our results show a lower use of pediatricians, other specialists, and dentists among deprived children that may be due, in part, to an insufficient supply of care in their area of residence. These results have been used to recommend optimization and specifically adapted individual or area-wide policies on the use of healthcare services, their density, and activities.

Direct impact of COVID-19 by estimating disability-adjusted life years at national level in France in 2020.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization declared a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), on March 11, 2020. The standardized approach of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) allows for quantifying the combined impact of morbidity and mortality of diseases and injuries. The main objective of this study was to estimate the direct impact of COVID-19 in France in 2020, using DALYs to combine the population health impact of infection fatalities, acute symptomatic infections and their post-acute consequences, in 28 days (baseline) up to 140 days, following the initial infection. METHODS: National mortality, COVID-19 screening, and hospital admission data were used to calculate DALYs based on the European Burden of Disease Network consensus disease model. Scenario analyses were performed by varying the number of symptomatic cases and duration of symptoms up to a maximum of 140 days, defining COVID-19 deaths using the underlying, and associated, cause of death. RESULTS: In 2020, the estimated DALYs due to COVID-19 in France were 990 710 (1472 per 100 000), with 99% of burden due to mortality (982 531 years of life lost, YLL) and 1% due to morbidity (8179 years lived with disability, YLD), following the initial infection. The contribution of YLD reached 375%, assuming the duration of 140 days of post-acute consequences of COVID-19. Post-acute consequences contributed to 49% of the total morbidity burden. The contribution of YLD due to acute symptomatic infections among people younger than 70 years was higher (67%) than among people aged 70 years and above (33%). YLL among people aged 70 years and above, contributed to 74% of the total YLL. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 had a substantial impact on population health in France in 2020. The majority of population health loss was due to mortality. Men had higher population health loss due to COVID-19 than women. Post-acute consequences of COVID-19 had a large contribution to the YLD component of the disease burden, even when we assume the shortest duration of 28 days, long COVID burden is large. Further research is recommended to assess the impact of health inequalities associated with these estimates.

Using filled prescription sequences to rank antidepressants: A nationwide replication study.

Ranking antidepressants according to their acceptability (i.e., a combination of both efficacy and tolerability) in the general population may help choosing the best first-line medication. This study aimed to replicate the results of a proof-of-concept study ranking anti-depressants according to the proportion of filled prescription sequences consistent with a continuation of the first treatment versus those consistent with a change. We used a nationwide cohort from the French national health data system (SNDS) to support the use of this method as a widely available tool to rank antidepressant treatments in real life settings. About 1.2 million people were identified as new antidepressant users in the SNDS in 2011. The outcome was clinical acceptability as measured by the continuation/failure ratio over the six-month period following the introduction of the first-line treatment. Continuation was defined as at least two refills of the same treatment. Failure was defined as a psychiatric hospitalization, death or at least one filled prescription of another antidepressant, an antipsychotic medication, or a mood-stabilizer. Adjusted Odds Ratios (aOR) and 95% Confidence Interval (CI) were computed through multivariable binary logistic regressions. We ranked antidepressant medications according to clinical acceptability. Escitalopram again was the most acceptable option, and the five following antidepressants were the same as in the replication sample of the proof-of-concept study, in order Fluoxetine, Paroxetine, Sertraline, Citalopram and Venlafaxine with aOR (95% CI) for continuation ranging from 0.79 (0.77-0.81) to 0.66 (0.64-0.67). The present study provides evidence that filled prescription sequences is a widely available, robust and reproductible tool to rank antidepressant treatments in real life settings.

Impact of the First COVID-19 Pandemic Wave on Hospitalizations and Deaths Caused by Geriatric Syndromes in France: A Nationwide Study.

BACKGROUND: The fear of contracting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the preventive measures taken during the health crisis affected both people's lifestyles and the health system. This nationwide study aimed to investigate the impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospitalizations and mortality related to geriatric syndromes (GS) in older adults in France. METHODS: The French National Health Data System was used to compare hospital admissions (excluding the main diagnosis of COVID-19) and mortality rates (using multiple-cause and initial-cause analyses, and both including or excluding confirmed/probable COVID-19) related to 10 different GS (dementia, other cognitive disorders and symptoms, delirium/disorientation, depression, undernutrition/malnutrition, dehydration, pressure ulcer, incontinence, fall/injury and femoral neck fracture) from January to September 2020 to rates observed in previous years. Analyses were stratified by age, sex, place of residence or place of death, and region. RESULTS: Hospitalization rates for all GS decreased during the first lockdown compared to the same periods in 2017-19 (from -59% for incontinence to -13% for femoral neck fractures). A dose-response relationship was observed between reduced hospitalizations and COVID-19-related mortality rates. Conversely, for almost all GS studied, excess mortality without COVID-19 was observed during this lockdown compared to 2015-17 (from +74% for delirium/disorientation to +8% for fall/injury), especially in nursing homes and at home. CONCLUSIONS: In France, during the first lockdown, a substantial decrease in hospitalizations for GS was accompanied by excess mortality. This decline in the use of services, which persisted beyond lockdown, may have a mid- and long-term impact on older adults' health.

Allocation aux adultes handicapés : pathologies et recours aux soins des bénéficiaires en 2017.

OBJECTIVE: We described the pathologies and health care utilization of beneficiaries of the general health insurance scheme via the Allocation Adulte Handicapé (AAH - Adult Disability Allowance) compared to the general population. METHOD: Mapping of pathologies and expenditures allowed the identification of 58 pathologies and chronic treatments in the SNDS, thanks to ICD-10 codes for long-term conditions or hospitalizations, specific drugs or medical procedures, among all beneficiaries of the general health insurance scheme aged 20 to 64 years with reimbursed care (>1€) in 2017. The prevalence and annual rates of care utilization among all beneficiaries of the general scheme via AAH (“AAH” group) and in the rest of the population (“non-AAH”) were standardized and described. RESULTS: Among the 793,934 (2.51% of the population) “AAH” persons, all the pathologies studied were more frequent than among the “non-AAH”, with 44% having psychiatric pathologies (compared with 3.2%), and 14% a neurological pathology (compared with 1%). AAH beneficiaries were more likely to use hospital care (63% versus 40%), but less likely to use specialist care (63% versus 68%) and dental care (37% versus 45%). CONCLUSION: The beneficiaries of the general scheme via the AAH had mainly psychiatric and neurological pathologies, but other pathologies were also much more frequent than in the general population. The lower use of dental and specialist care was probably related to a lack of access to care, potentially caused by the absence of 100% coverage of care.

Acceptability of Second-Line Antidepressant Medications Using Filled Prescription Sequences in a Nationwide Cohort Study.

Background: Although about half of patients do not respond to a first-line antidepressant medication, there is no consensus on the best second-line option. The aim of this nationwide population-based study was to rank antidepressants according to their relative acceptability (ie, efficacy and tolerability) using filled prescription sequences after failure of first treatment.Methods: About 1.2 million people were identified as new antidepressant users in the French national health data system in 2011. The inclusion criterion was having at least 2 filled prescriptions of a second-line treatment after a filled prescription of a first-line treatment, resulting in 63,726 participants. The outcome was clinical acceptability as measured by the continuation/change ratio for second-line treatment. Continuation sequence was defined as at least 2 refills of the same treatment. Change sequence was defined as at least 1 filled prescription of another antidepressant. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) were computed through multivariable binary logistic regressions.Results: Intraclass switch had a better acceptability than interclass switch (aOR [95% CI]: 1.23 [1.20-1.28]). According to the first-line treatment, intraclass switch remained more acceptable for selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors only (1.37 [1.31-1.42]). For α2 blockers and tricyclic agents, combination antidepressant therapy was the most acceptable second-line option (1.59 [1.27-2.01] and 2.53 [1.53-4.04], respectively), whereas for serotonin-norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors there was no significant difference between the strategies. For other antidepressants, intraclass switch had lower acceptability than interclass switch (0.70 [0.51-0.95]).Conclusions: Administrative claim databases may help with ranking acceptability of second-line treatments in real world settings and complement randomized controlled trials in informing clinicians about the most acceptable second-line options according to the first-line treatment.

Projection of age of individuals living with HIV and time since ART initiation in 2030: estimates for France.

INTRODUCTION: Thanks to antiretroviral treatment (ART), people living with HIV (PLHIV) are living longer and ageing. However, ageing involves increased risks of co-morbidities, which also depend on when PLHIV individuals started ART. To tackle the HIV age-related upcoming challenges, knowledge of the current and future age structure of the HIV population is needed. Here, we forecast the demographic profile of the adult population living with diagnosed HIV (aPLdHIV) in France until 2030, accounting for the impact of the ART initiation period on mortality. METHODS: We used national data from the French Hospital Database on HIV (ANRS CO4-FHDH) and a sample of the National Health Data System to, first, characterize the aPLdHIV in 2018 and estimate their mortality rates according to age, sex and ART initiation period. Second, we used national HIV surveillance data to define three scenarios for the numbers of newly diagnosed HIV cases over 2019-2030: 30% decrease in HIV cases (S1), status quo situation (S2) and epidemic elimination (S3). We then combined these data using a matrix model, to project the age structure of aPLdHIV and time since ART initiation. RESULTS: In 2018, there was an estimated 161,125 aPLdHIV (33% women), of which 55% were aged 50 or older (50+), 22% aged 60+ and 8% aged 70+. In 2030, the aPLdHIV would grow to 195,246 for S1, 207,972 for S2 and 167,221 for S3. Whatever the scenario, in 2030, the estimated median time since ART initiation would increase and age distribution would shift towards older ages: with 65-72% aPLdHIV aged 50+, 42-48% 60+ and 17-19% 70+. This corresponds to ∼83,400 aPLdHIV (28% women) aged 60+, among which ∼69% started ART more than 20 years ago (i.e. before 2010) and ∼39% ≥30 years ago (i.e. before 2000), and to ∼33,100 aPLdHIV (27% women) aged 70+, among which ∼72% started ART ≥20 years ago and ∼43% ≥30 years ago. CONCLUSIONS: By 2030, in France, close to 20% of the aPLdHIV will be aged 70+, of which >40% would have started ART more than 30 years ago. These estimates are essential to adapt co-morbidities screening and anticipate resource provision in the aged care sector.

Outcomes associated with antidepressant treatment according to the number of prescriptions and treatment changes: 5-year follow-up of a nation-wide cohort study.

Background: Naturalistic studies regarding clinical outcomes associated with antidepressant treatment duration have yielded conflicting results, possibly because they did not consider the occurrence of treatment changes. This nation-wide population-based study examined the association between the number of filled prescriptions and treatment changes and long-term psychiatric outcomes after antidepressant treatment initiation. Methods: Based on the French national health insurance database, 842,175 adults who initiated an antidepressant treatment in 2011 were included. Cox proportional-hazard multi-adjusted regression models examined the association between the number of filled prescriptions and the occurrence of treatment changes 12 months after initiation and four outcomes during a 5-year follow-up: psychiatric hospitalizations, suicide attempts, sick leaves for a psychiatric diagnosis, new episodes of antidepressant treatment. Results: During a mean follow-up of 4.5 years, the incidence rates of the four above-mentioned outcomes were 13.49, 2.47, 4.57, and 92.76 per 1,000 person-years, respectively. The number of filled prescriptions was associated with each outcome (adjusted HRs [95% CI] for one additional prescription ranging from 1.01 [1.00-1.02] to 1.10 [1.09-1.11]), as was the occurrence of at least one treatment change vs. none (adjusted HRs [95% CI] ranging from 1.18 [1.16-1.21] to 1.57 [1.79-1.65]). Furthermore, the adjusted HRs [95% CI] of the number of filled prescriptions were greater in patients with (vs. without) a treatment change for psychiatric hospitalizations (1.12 [1.11-1.14] vs. 1.09 [1.08-1.10], p for interaction = 0.002) and suicide attempts (1.12 [1.09-1.15] vs. 1.06 [1.04-1.08], p for interaction = 0.006). Limitations: Lack of clinical data about the disorders warranting the prescriptions or their severity. Conclusion: Considering treatment changes is critical when using administrative claims database to examine the long-term psychiatric outcomes of antidepressant treatments in real-life settings.

Underuse of primary healthcare in France during the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 according to individual characteristics: a national observational study.

BACKGROUND: The organization of healthcare systems changed significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact on the use of primary care during various key periods in 2020 has been little studied. METHODS: Using individual data from the national health database, we compared the numbers of people with at least one consultation, deaths, the total number of consultations for the population of mainland France (64.3 million) and the mean number of consultations per person (differentiating between teleconsultations and consultations in person) between 2019 and 2020. We performed analyses by week, by lockdown period (March 17 to May 10, and October 30 to December 14 [less strict]), and for the entire year. Analyses were stratified for age, sex, deprivation index, epidemic level, and disease. RESULTS: During the first lockdown, 26% of the population consulted a general practitioner (GP) at least once (-34% relative to 2019), 7.4% consulted a nurse (-28%), 1.6% a physiotherapist (-80%), and 5% a dentist (-95%). For specialists, consultations were down 82% for ophthalmologists and 37% for psychiatrists. The deficit was smaller for specialties making significant use of teleconsultations. During the second lockdown, the number of consultations was close to that in 2019, except for GPs (-7%), pediatricians (-8%), and nurses (+ 39%). Nurses had already seen a smaller increase in weekly consultations during the summer, following their authorization to perform COVID-19 screening tests. The decrease in the annual number of consultations was largest for dentists (-17%), physiotherapists (-14%), and many specialists (approximately 10%). The mean number of consultations per person was slightly lower for the various specialties, particularly for nurses (15.1 vs. 18.6). The decrease in the number of consultations was largest for children and adolescents (GPs: -10%, dentists: -13%). A smaller decrease was observed for patients with chronic diseases and with increasing age. There were 9% excess deaths, mostly in individuals over 60 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: There was a marked decrease in primary care consultations in France, especially during the first lockdown, despite strong teleconsultation activity, with differences according to age and healthcare profession. The impact of this decrease in care on morbidity and mortality merits further investigation.

The Economic Burden of Disease in France From the National Health Insurance Perspective: The Healthcare Expenditures and Conditions Mapping Used to Prepare the French Social Security Funding Act and the Public Health Act.

BACKGROUND: Identifying the most frequently treated and the costliest health conditions is essential for prioritizing actions to improve the resilience of health systems. OBJECTIVES: Healthcare Expenditures and Conditions Mapping describes the annual economic burden of 58 health conditions to prepare the French Social Security Funding Act and the Public Health Act. DESIGN: Annual cross-sectional study (2015-2019) based on the French national health database. SUBJECTS: National health insurance beneficiaries (97% of the French residents). MEASURES: All individual health care expenditures reimbursed by the national health insurance were attributed to 58 health conditions (treated diseases, chronic treatments, and episodes of care) identified by using algorithms based on available medical information (diagnosis coded during hospital stays, long-term diseases, and specific drugs). RESULTS: In 2019, €167.0 billion were reimbursed to 66.3 million people (52% women, median age: 42 y). The most prevalent treated diseases were diabetes (6.0%), chronic respiratory diseases (5.5%), and coronary diseases (3.2%). Coronary diseases accounted for 4.6% of expenditures, neurotic and mood disorders 3.7%, psychotic disorders 2.8%, and breast cancer 2.1%. Between 2015 and 2019, the expenditures increased primarily for diabetes (+€906 million) and neurotic and mood disorders (+€861 million) due to the growing number of patients. "Active lung cancer" (+€797 million) represented the highest relative increase (+54%) due to expenditures for the expensive drugs and medical devices delivered at hospital. CONCLUSIONS: These results have provided policy-makers, evaluators, and public health specialists with key insights into identifying health priorities and a better understanding of trends in health care expenditures in France.

Magnitude, change over time, demographic characteristics and geographic distribution of excess deaths among nursing home residents during the first wave of COVID-19 in France: a nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The objectives were to assess the excess deaths among Nursing Home (NH) residents during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, to determine their part in the total excess deaths and whether there was a mortality displacement. METHODS: We studied a cohort of 494,753 adults in 6,515 NHs in France exposed to COVID-19 pandemic (from 1 March to 31 May 2020) and compared with the 2014-2019 cohorts using data from the French National Health Data System. The main outcome was death. Excess deaths and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were estimated. RESULT: There were 13,505 excess deaths. Mortality increased by 43% (SMR: 1.43). The mortality excess was higher among males than females (SMR: 1.51 and 1.38) and decreased with increasing age (SMRs in females: 1.61 in the 60-74 age group, 1.58 for 75-84, 1.41 for 85-94 and 1.31 for 95 or over; males: SMRs: 1.59 for 60-74, 1.69 for 75-84, 1.47 for 85-94 and 1.41 for 95 or over). No mortality displacement effect was observed up until 30 August 2020. By extrapolating to all NH residents nationally (N = 570,003), we estimated that they accounted for 51% of the general population excess deaths (N = 15,114 out of 29,563). CONCLUSION: NH residents accounted for half of the total excess deaths in France during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The excess death rate was higher among males than females and among younger than older residents.

Duration of combination therapy and risk of treatment failure in patients with inflammatory bowel disease.

BACKGROUND: Patients who receive infliximab (IFX) combined with a thiopurine, for inflammatory bowel disease, have a better clinical response and less frequent immunization towards IFX than those treated with IFX alone. The benefits of combination therapy must be weighed against the risks of infection and cancer. We studied the association between the duration of combination therapy and the risk of treatment failure by two year from initiation. METHODS: Participants had Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis and were in clinical and biological remission, 6 months after initiation of combination therapy. The risk of subsequent treatment failure (i.e., undetectable trough IFX levels and/or clinical relapse followed by surgical treatment or switch of maintenance treatment) was estimated using Kaplan-Meier method and adjusted Hazard Ratios (aHRs), in patients whohadreceived 6 to 11 months vs. 12 months or more of combination therapy. We performed a similar analysis in which the follow-up was started at discontinuation of the immunosuppressant. RESULTS: Among 139 patients (48% women; median age 31.1), with a median follow-up of 18.9 months, we observed 26 treatment failures (including 15 patients with undetectable trough IFX levels). After adjustment for gender and type of immunomodulator, a shorter duration of combination therapy was not associated with a higher risk of treatment failure (aHR=0.42; 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 0.13-1.40; p=0.16). When the follow-up was started at discontinuation of the immunosuppressant, a combination therapy of 6-11 months was associated with a numerically lower risk of treatment failure as compared with a longer combination therapy (HR=0.12; 95%CI: 0.01-1.05; p=0.055). CONCLUSION: Our results do not show any benefit for continuation of combination therapy for more than 12 months after achieving clinical remission in IBD patients.

French hepatitis C care cascade: substantial impact of direct-acting antivirals, but the road to elimination is still long.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination by 2030, as targeted by the World Health Organization (WHO), requires that 90% of people with chronic infection be diagnosed and 80% treated. We estimated the cascade of care (CoC) for chronic HCV infection in mainland France in 2011 and 2016, before and after the introduction of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). METHODS: The numbers of people (1) with chronic HCV infection, (2) aware of their infection, (3) receiving care for HCV and (4) on antiviral treatment, were estimated for 2011 and 2016. Estimates for 1) and 2) were based on modelling studies for 2011 and on a virological sub-study nested in a national cross-sectional survey among the general population for 2016. Estimates for 3) and 4) were made using the National Health Data System. RESULTS: Between 2011 and 2016, the number of people with chronic HCV infection decreased by 31%, from 192,700 (95% Credibility interval: 150,900-246,100) to 133,500 (95% Confidence interval: 56,900-312,600). The proportion of people aware of their infection rose from 57.7 to 80.6%. The number of people receiving care for HCV increased by 22.5% (representing 25.7% of those infected in 2016), while the number of people on treatment increased by 24.6% (representing 12.1% of those infected in 2016). CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that DAAs substantially impact CoC. However, access to care and treatment for infected people remained insufficient in 2016. Updating CoC estimates will help to assess the impact of new measures implemented since 2016 as part of the goal to eliminate HCV.