Predicting suitable habitats for foraging and migration in Eastern Indian Ocean pygmy blue whales from satellite tracking data.

BACKGROUND: Accurate predictions of animal occurrence in time and space are crucial for informing and implementing science-based management strategies for threatened species. METHODS: We compiled known, available satellite tracking data for pygmy blue whales in the Eastern Indian Ocean (n = 38), applied movement models to define low (foraging and reproduction) and high (migratory) move persistence underlying location estimates and matched these with environmental data. We then used machine learning models to identify the relationship between whale occurrence and environment, and predict foraging and migration habitat suitability in Australia and Southeast Asia. RESULTS: Our model predictions were validated by producing spatially varying accuracy metrics. We identified the shelf off the Bonney Coast, Great Australian Bight, and southern Western Australia as well as the slope off the Western Australian coast as suitable habitat for migration, with predicted foraging/reproduction suitable habitat in Southeast Asia region occurring on slope and in deep ocean waters. Suitable foraging habitat occurred primarily on slope and shelf break throughout most of Australia, with use of the continental shelf also occurring, predominanly in South West and Southern Australia. Depth of the water column (bathymetry) was consistently a top predictor of suitable habitat for most regions, however, dynamic environmental variables (sea surface temperature, surface height anomaly) influenced the probability of whale occurrence. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate suitable habitat is related to dynamic, localised oceanic processes that may occur at fine temporal scales or seasonally. An increase in the sample size of tagged whales is required to move towards developing more dynamic distribution models at seasonal and monthly temporal scales. Our validation metrics also indicated areas where further data collection is needed to improve model accuracy. This is of particular importance for pygmy blue whale management, since threats (e.g., shipping, underwater noise and artificial structures) from the offshore energy and shipping industries will persist or may increase with the onset of an offshore renewable energy sector in Australia.

Mesophotic benthic communities associated with a submerged palaeoshoreline in Western Australia.

Key ecological features (KEFs) are elements of Australia's Commonwealth marine environment considered to be important for biodiversity or ecosystem function, yet many KEFs are poorly researched, which can impede effective decision-making about future development and conservation. This study investigates a KEF positioned over the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) shoreline on the northwest shelf of Australia (known as the 'Ancient Coastline at ~125m depth contour'; AC125). Seafloor bathymetry, sedimentology and benthic habitats were characterised within five study areas using multibeam sonar, sediment samples and towed video imagery. Direct evidence for the existence of a palaeoshoreline formed during the LGM was not found, however candidate areas to find palaeoshoreline material at or just below the modern seabed were discovered. Approximately 98% of the seabed surveyed was comprised of unconsolidated soft sediment habitat (mud/sand/silt) supporting negligible epibenthic biota. The prevalence of soft sediment suggests that post-glacial sediments have infilled parts of the palaeoshoreline, with cross-shelf, probably tidal currents in the northern section of the study area responsible for some of the sediment mobilisation and southern study areas more influenced by oceanic conditions. Within study areas, total biotic cover ranged from 0.02% to 1.07%. Of the biota encountered, most comprised filter feeder organisms (including gorgonians, sponges, and whip corals) whose distribution was associated with pockets of consolidated hard substrate. Benthic community composition varied with both study area and position in relation to the predicted AC125. In general, consolidated substrate was proportionally higher in water shallower than the AC125 compared to on the AC125 or deeper than the AC125. Spatially continuous maps of predicted benthic habitat classes (pre-determined benthic communities) in each study area were developed to characterise biodiversity. Spatial modelling corroborated depth and large-scale structural complexity of the seafloor as surrogates for predicting likely habitat class. This study provides an important assessment of the AC125 and shows that if a distinct coastline exists in the areas we surveyed, it is now largely buried and as such does not provide a unique hard substrate habitat. However, much work remains to fully locate and map the ancient coastline within the vast region of the AC125 and additional surveys in shallow waters adjacent to the AC125 may identify whether some sections lie outside the currently defined KEF.

Macroalgae exhibit diverse responses to human disturbances on coral reefs.

Scientists and managers rely on indicator taxa such as coral and macroalgal cover to evaluate the effects of human disturbance on coral reefs, often assuming a universally positive relationship between local human disturbance and macroalgae. Despite evidence that macroalgae respond to local stressors in diverse ways, there have been few efforts to evaluate relationships between specific macroalgae taxa and local human-driven disturbance. Using genus-level monitoring data from 1205 sites in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, we assess whether macroalgae percent cover correlates with local human disturbance while accounting for factors that could obscure or confound relationships. Assessing macroalgae at genus level revealed that no genera were positively correlated with all human disturbance metrics. Instead, we found relationships between the division or genera of algae and specific human disturbances that were not detectable when pooling taxa into a single functional category, which is common to many analyses. The convention to use percent cover of macroalgae as an indication of local human disturbance therefore likely obscures signatures of local anthropogenic threats to reefs. Our limited understanding of relationships between human disturbance, macroalgae taxa, and their responses to human disturbances impedes the ability to diagnose and respond appropriately to these threats.

Effects of human footprint and biophysical factors on the body-size structure of fished marine species.

Marine fisheries in coastal ecosystems in many areas of the world have historically removed large-bodied individuals, potentially impairing ecosystem functioning and the long-term sustainability of fish populations. Reporting on size-based indicators that link to food-web structure can contribute to ecosystem-based management, but the application of these indicators over large (cross-ecosystem) geographical scales has been limited to either fisheries-dependent catch data or diver-based methods restricted to shallow waters (<20 m) that can misrepresent the abundance of large-bodied fished species. We obtained data on the body-size structure of 82 recreationally or commercially targeted marine demersal teleosts from 2904 deployments of baited remote underwater stereo-video (stereo-BRUV). Sampling was at up to 50 m depth and covered approximately 10,000 km of the continental shelf of Australia. Seascape relief, water depth, and human gravity (i.e., a proxy of human impacts) were the strongest predictors of the probability of occurrence of large fishes and the abundance of fishes above the minimum legal size of capture. No-take marine reserves had a positive effect on the abundance of fishes above legal size, although the effect varied across species groups. In contrast, sublegal fishes were best predicted by gradients in sea surface temperature (mean and variance). In areas of low human impact, large fishes were about three times more likely to be encountered and fishes of legal size were approximately five times more abundant. For conspicuous species groups with contrasting habitat, environmental, and biogeographic affinities, abundance of legal-size fishes typically declined as human impact increased. Our large-scale quantitative analyses highlight the combined importance of seascape complexity, regions with low human footprint, and no-take marine reserves in protecting large-bodied fishes across a broad range of species and ecosystem configurations.

Las pesquerías marinas de los ecosistemas costeros en muchas áreas del mundo históricamente han removido a individuos de gran tamaño, potencialmente perjudicando el funcionamiento ambiental y la sostenibilidad a largo plazo de las poblaciones de peces. Los reportes sobre los indicadores basados en el tamaño que se vinculan con la estructura de la red alimenticia pueden contribuir al manejo basado en el ecosistema, aunque la aplicación de estos indicadores a grandes (inter-ecosistemas) escalas geográficas ha estado limitada a datos de captura dependientes de las pesquerías o métodos basados en el buceo restringidos a aguas someras (<20 m), lo cual puede representar erróneamente la abundancia de peces de gran tamaño capturados para la pesca. Obtuvimos los datos de la estructura del tamaño corporal de 82 teleósteos marinos demersales focalizados por razones recreativas o comerciales tomados de 2,904 despliegues de video estéreo subacuático remoto con cebo (stereo-BRUV, en inglés). El muestreo se realizó hasta los 50 metros de profundidad y abarcó aproximadamente 10,000 km del talud continental de Australia. El relieve marino, la profundidad del agua y la gravedad humana (es decir, un indicador de los impactos humanos) fueron los pronosticadores más sólidos de la probabilidad de incidencia de los peces de gran tamaño y de la abundancia de peces por encima del tamaño legal mínimo de captura. Las reservas marinas de protección total tienen un efecto positivo sobre la abundancia de los peces que están por encima del tamaño legal, aunque el efecto varió según el grupo de especies. Como contraste, los peces de tamaño sublegal fueron pronosticados de mejor manera usando gradientes de la temperatura de la superficie marina (media y varianza). En las áreas con un impacto humano reducido, los peces de gran tamaño corporal tenían hasta tres veces mayor probabilidad de aparecer y los peces de tamaño legal eran aproximadamente cinco veces más abundantes. Para los grupos de especies conspicuas con afinidades contrastantes de hábitat, ambiente y biogeografía, la abundancia de peces de tamaño legal normalmente declinó conforme aumentó el impacto humano. Nuestros análisis cuantitativos a gran escala resaltan la importancia conjunta que tienen la complejidad marina, las regiones con una huella humana reducida y las reservas marinas de protección total para la protección de los peces de gran tamaño corporal en una extensa gama de especies y configuraciones ecosistémicas. Efectos de la Huella Humana y los Factores Biofísicos sobre la Estructura del Tamaño Corporal de Especies Marinas Capturadas para la Pesca.

A quantitative comparison of towed-camera and diver-camera transects for monitoring coral reefs.

Novel tools and methods for monitoring marine environments can improve efficiency but must not compromise long-term data records. Quantitative comparisons between new and existing methods are therefore required to assess their compatibility for monitoring. Monitoring of shallow water coral reefs is typically conducted using diver-based collection of benthic images along transects. Diverless systems for obtaining underwater images (e.g. towed-cameras, remotely operated vehicles, autonomous underwater vehicles) are increasingly used for mapping coral reefs. Of these imaging platforms, towed-cameras offer a practical, low cost and efficient method for surveys but their utility for repeated measures in monitoring studies has not been tested. We quantitatively compare a towed-camera approach to repeated surveys of shallow water coral reef benthic assemblages on fixed transects, relative to benchmark data from diver photo-transects. Differences in the percent cover detected by the two methods was partly explained by differences in the morphology of benthic groups. The reef habitat and physical descriptors of the site-slope, depth and structural complexity-also influenced the comparability of data, with differences between the tow-camera and the diver data increasing with structural complexity and slope. Differences between the methods decreased when a greater number of images were collected per tow-camera transect. We attribute lower image quality (variable perspective, exposure and focal distance) and lower spatial accuracy and precision of the towed-camera transects as the key reasons for differences in the data from the two methods and suggest changes to the sampling design to improve the application of tow-cameras to monitoring.

Increased connectivity and depth improve the effectiveness of marine reserves.

Marine reserves are a key tool for the conservation of marine biodiversity, yet only ~2.5% of the world's oceans are protected. The integration of marine reserves into connected networks representing all habitats has been encouraged by international agreements, yet the benefits of this design has not been tested empirically. Australia has one of the largest systems of marine reserves, providing a rare opportunity to assess how connectivity influences conservation success. An Australia-wide dataset was collected using baited remote underwater video systems deployed across a depth range from 0 to 100 m to assess the effectiveness of marine reserves for protecting teleosts subject to commercial and recreational fishing. A meta-analytical comparison of 73 fished species within 91 marine reserves found that, on average, marine reserves had 28% greater abundance and 53% greater biomass of fished species compared to adjacent areas open to fishing. However, benefits of protection were not observed across all reserves (heterogeneity), so full subsets generalized additive modelling was used to consider factors that influence marine reserve effectiveness, including distance-based and ecological metrics of connectivity among reserves. Our results suggest that increased connectivity and depth improve the aforementioned marine reserve benefits and that these factors should be considered to optimize such benefits over time. We provide important guidance on factors to consider when implementing marine reserves for the purpose of increasing the abundance and size of fished species, given the expected increase in coverage globally. We show that marine reserves that are highly protected (no-take) and designed to optimize connectivity, size and depth range can provide an effective conservation strategy for fished species in temperate and tropical waters within an overarching marine biodiversity conservation framework.

The use of singlebeam echo-sounder depth data to produce demersal fish distribution models that are comparable to models produced using multibeam echo-sounder depth.

Seafloor characteristics can help in the prediction of fish distribution, which is required for fisheries and conservation management. Despite this, only 5%-10% of the world's seafloor has been mapped at high resolution, as it is a time-consuming and expensive process. Multibeam echo-sounders (MBES) can produce high-resolution bathymetry and a broad swath coverage of the seafloor, but require greater financial and technical resources for operation and data analysis than singlebeam echo-sounders (SBES). In contrast, SBES provide comparatively limited spatial coverage, as only a single measurement is made from directly under the vessel. Thus, producing a continuous map requires interpolation to fill gaps between transects. This study assesses the performance of demersal fish species distribution models by comparing those derived from interpolated SBES data with full-coverage MBES distribution models. A Random Forest classifier was used to model the distribution of Abalistes stellatus, Gymnocranius grandoculis, Lagocephalus sceleratus, Loxodon macrorhinus, Pristipomoides multidens, and Pristipomoides typus, with depth and depth derivatives (slope, aspect, standard deviation of depth, terrain ruggedness index, mean curvature, and topographic position index) as explanatory variables. The results indicated that distribution models for A. stellatus, G. grandoculis, L. sceleratus, and L. macrorhinus performed poorly for MBES and SBES data with area under the receiver operator curves (AUC) below 0.7. Consequently, the distribution of these species could not be predicted by seafloor characteristics produced from either echo-sounder type. Distribution models for P. multidens and P. typus performed well for MBES and the SBES data with an AUC above 0.8. Depth was the most important variable explaining the distribution of P. multidens and P. typus in both MBES and SBES models. While further research is needed, this study shows that in resource-limited scenarios, SBES can produce comparable results to MBES for use in demersal fish management and conservation.

Comment on 'Lack of evidence for associative learning in pea plants'.

In 2016 we reported evidence for associative learning in plants (Gagliano et al., 2016). In view of the far-reaching implications of this finding we welcome the attempt made by Markel to replicate our study (Markel, 2020). However, as we discuss here, the protocol employed by Markel was unsuitable for testing for associative learning.

Towards modelling the future risk of cyclone wave damage to the world's coral reefs.

Tropical cyclones generate extreme waves that can damage coral reef communities. Recovery typically requires up to a decade, driving the trajectory of coral community structure. Coral reefs have evolved over millennia with cyclones. Increasingly, however, processes of recovery are interrupted and compromised by additional pressures (thermal stress, pollution, diseases, predators). Understanding how cyclones interact with other pressures to threaten coral reefs underpins spatial prioritization of conservation and management interventions. Models that simulate coral responses to cumulative pressures often assume that the worst cyclone wave damage occurs within ~100 km of the track. However, we show major coral loss at exposed sites up to 800 km from a cyclone that was both strong (high sustained wind speeds >=33 m/s) and big (widespread circulation >~300 km), using numerical wave models and field data from northwest Australia. We then calculate the return time of big and strong cyclones, big cyclones of any strength and strong cyclones of any size, for each of 150 coral reef ecoregions using a global data set of past cyclones from 1985 to 2015. For the coral ecoregions that regularly were exposed to cyclones during that time, we find that 75% of them were exposed to at least one cyclone that was both big and strong. Return intervals of big and strong cyclones are already less than 5 years for 13 ecoregions, primarily in the cyclone-prone NW Pacific, and less than 10 years for an additional 14 ecoregions. We identify ecoregions likely at higher risk in future given projected changes in cyclone activity. Robust quantification of the spatial distribution of likely cyclone wave damage is vital not only for understanding past coral response to pressures, but also for predicting how this may change as the climate continues to warm and the relative frequency of the strongest cyclones rises.

Utilizing individual fish biomass and relative abundance models to map environmental niche associations of adult and juvenile targeted fishes.

Many fishes undergo ontogenetic habitat shifts to meet their energy and resource needs as they grow. Habitat resource partitioning and patterns of habitat connectivity between conspecific fishes at different life-history stages is a significant knowledge gap. Species distribution models were used to examine patterns in the relative abundance, individual biomass estimates and environmental niche associations of different life stages of three iconic West Australian fishes. Continuous predictive maps describing the spatial distribution of abundance and individual biomass of the study species were created as well predictive hotspot maps that identify possible areas for aggregation of individuals of similar life stages of multiple species (i.e. spawning grounds, fisheries refugia or nursery areas). The models and maps indicate that processes driving the abundance patterns could be different from the body size associated demographic processes throughout an individual's life cycle. Incorporating life-history in the spatially explicit management plans can ensure that critical habitat of the vulnerable stages (e.g. juvenile fish, spawning stock) is included within proposed protected areas and can enhance connectivity between various functional areas (e.g. nursery areas and adult populations) which, in turn, can improve the abundance of targeted species as well as other fish species relying on healthy ecosystem functioning.

No evidence of damage to the soft tissue or skeletal integrity of mesophotic corals exposed to a 3D marine seismic survey.

Scleractinian corals, primarily plate corals in families Agaricidae and Acroporidae, were monitored in situ before, during and after a 3D marine seismic survey. An initial four day seismic run, resulting in a maximum 24 h received sound exposure level (SEL24) of 204 dB re 1 µPa2·s and received 0-to-peak pressure (PK Pressure) of 226 dB re 1 µPa, had no detectable effect on soft tissues or skeletal integrity. Subsequently, a full marine seismic survey (Maxima 3D MSS), proceeded over two months and included seismic acquisition lines at 240 m spacing over the broader reef lagoon (South Scott Reef), generating maximum received SEL24 of 197 dB re 1 µPa2·s and received PK Pressure of 220 dB re 1 µPa at the coral monitoring sites. The analysis detected no effect of seismic activity measured as coral mortality, skeletal damage or visible signs of stress immediately after and up to four months following the 3D marine seismic survey.

Climatic forcing and larval dispersal capabilities shape the replenishment of fishes and their habitat-forming biota on a tropical coral reef.

Fluctuations in marine populations often relate to the supply of recruits by oceanic currents. Variation in these currents is typically driven by large-scale changes in climate, in particular ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). The dependence on large-scale climatic changes may, however, be modified by early life history traits of marine taxa. Based on eight years of annual surveys, along 150 km of coastline, we examined how ENSO influenced abundance of juvenile fish, coral spat, and canopy-forming macroalgae. We then investigated what traits make populations of some fish families more reliant on the ENSO relationship than others. Abundance of juvenile fish and coral recruits was generally positively correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), higher densities recorded during La Niña years, when the ENSO-influenced Leeuwin Current is stronger and sea surface temperature higher. The relationship is typically positive and stronger among fish families with shorter pelagic larval durations and stronger swimming abilities. The relationship is also stronger at sites on the coral back reef, although the strongest of all relationships were among the lethrinids (r = .9), siganids (r = .9), and mullids (r = .8), which recruit to macroalgal meadows in the lagoon. ENSO effects on habitat seem to moderate SOI-juvenile abundance relationship. Macroalgal canopies are higher during La Niña years, providing more favorable habitat for juvenile fish and strengthening the SOI effect on juvenile abundance. Conversely, loss of coral following a La Niña-related heat wave may have compromised postsettlement survival of coral dependent species, weakening the influence of SOI on their abundance. This assessment of ENSO effects on tropical fish and habitat-forming biota and how it is mediated by functional ecology improves our ability to predict and manage changes in the replenishment of marine populations.

Comparing two remote video survey methods for spatial predictions of the distribution and environmental niche suitability of demersal fishes.

Information on habitat associations from survey data, combined with spatial modelling, allow the development of more refined species distribution modelling which may identify areas of high conservation/fisheries value and consequentially improve conservation efforts. Generalised additive models were used to model the probability of occurrence of six focal species after surveys that utilised two remote underwater video sampling methods (i.e. baited and towed video). Models developed for the towed video method had consistently better predictive performance for all but one study species although only three models had a good to fair fit, and the rest were poor fits, highlighting the challenges associated with modelling habitat associations of marine species in highly homogenous, low relief environments. Models based on baited video dataset regularly included large-scale measures of structural complexity, suggesting fish attraction to a single focus point by bait. Conversely, models based on the towed video data often incorporated small-scale measures of habitat complexity and were more likely to reflect true species-habitat relationships. The cost associated with use of the towed video systems for surveying low-relief seascapes was also relatively low providing additional support for considering this method for marine spatial ecological modelling.

Characterizing ontogenetic habitat shifts in marine fishes: advancing nascent methods for marine spatial management.

Niche requirements and habitat resource partitioning by conspecific fishes of different sizes are significant knowledge gaps in the species distribution modelling domain. Management actions and operations are typically concentrated on static habitats, or specific areas of interest, without considering movement patterns of species associated with ontogenetic shifts in habitat usage. Generalized additive models were used to model the body-length-habitat relationships of six fish species. These models were used to identify subsets of environmental parameters that drive and explain the continuous length-habitat relationships for each of the study species, which vary in their degree of ecological and/or commercial importance. Continuous predictive maps of the length distributions for each of the six study species across approximately 200 km2 of the study area were created from these models. The spatial patterns in habitat partitioning by individuals of different body lengths for all six study species provide strong evidence for ontogenetic shifts. This highlights the importance of considering ontogenetic processes for marine spatial management. Importantly, predictive hotspot maps were created that identify potential areas that accumulate individuals of similar life stages of multiple species (e.g., multispecies nursery areas). In circumstances where limited resources are available for monitoring and management of fish resources, predictive modelling is a valuable tool for studying previously overlooked processes such as ontogenetic habitat shifts. Predictive modelling provides crucial information that elucidates spatial patterns in community composition across mosaics of benthic habitats. This novel technique can contribute to the spatial management of coastal fish and fisheries by identifying areas that are important for different life history stages of multiple fish species.

Improving spatial prioritisation for remote marine regions: optimising biodiversity conservation and sustainable development trade-offs.

Creating large conservation zones in remote areas, with less intense stakeholder overlap and limited environmental information, requires periodic review to ensure zonation mitigates primary threats and fill gaps in representation, while achieving conservation targets. Follow-up reviews can utilise improved methods and data, potentially identifying new planning options yielding a desirable balance between stakeholder interests. This research explored a marine zoning system in north-west Australia-a biodiverse area with poorly documented biota. Although remote, it is economically significant (i.e. petroleum extraction and fishing). Stakeholder engagement was used to source the best available biodiversity and socio-economic data and advanced spatial analyses produced 765 high resolution data layers, including 674 species distributions representing 119 families. Gap analysis revealed the current proposed zoning system as inadequate, with 98.2% of species below the Convention on Biological Diversity 10% representation targets. A systematic conservation planning algorithm Maxan provided zoning options to meet representation targets while balancing this with industry interests. Resulting scenarios revealed that conservation targets could be met with minimal impacts on petroleum and fishing industries, with estimated losses of 4.9% and 7.2% respectively. The approach addressed important knowledge gaps and provided a powerful and transparent method to reconcile industry interests with marine conservation.

Integrating Climate Change Resilience Features into the Incremental Refinement of an Existing Marine Park.

Marine protected area (MPA) designs are likely to require iterative refinement as new knowledge is gained. In particular, there is an increasing need to consider the effects of climate change, especially the ability of ecosystems to resist and/or recover from climate-related disturbances, within the MPA planning process. However, there has been limited research addressing the incorporation of climate change resilience into MPA design. This study used Marxan conservation planning software with fine-scale shallow water (<20 m) bathymetry and habitat maps, models of major benthic communities for deeper water, and comprehensive human use information from Ningaloo Marine Park in Western Australia to identify climate change resilience features to integrate into the incremental refinement of the marine park. The study assessed the representation of benthic habitats within the current marine park zones, identified priority areas of high resilience for inclusion within no-take zones and examined if any iterative refinements to the current no-take zones are necessary. Of the 65 habitat classes, 16 did not meet representation targets within the current no-take zones, most of which were in deeper offshore waters. These deeper areas also demonstrated the highest resilience values and, as such, Marxan outputs suggested minor increases to the current no-take zones in the deeper offshore areas. This work demonstrates that inclusion of fine-scale climate change resilience features within the design process for MPAs is feasible, and can be applied to future marine spatial planning practices globally.

Influence of nursery microhabitats on the future abundance of a coral reef fish.

Species habitat associations are often complex, making it difficult to assess their influence on populations. Among coral reef fishes, habitat requirements vary among species and with ontogeny, but the relative importance of nursery and adult-preferred habitats on future abundances remain unclear. Moreover, adult populations may be influenced by recruitment of juveniles and assessments of habitat importance should consider relative effects of juvenile abundance. We conducted surveys across 16 sites and 200 km of reef to identify the microhabitat preferences of juveniles, sub-adults and adults of the damselfish Pomacentrus moluccensis Microhabitat preferences at different life-history stages were then combined with 6 years of juvenile abundance and microhabitat availability data to show that the availability of preferred juvenile microhabitat (corymbose corals) at the time of settlement was a strong predictor of future sub-adult and adult abundance. However, the influence of nursery microhabitats on future population size differed spatially and at some locations abundance of juveniles and adult microhabitat (branching corals) were better predictors of local populations. Our results demonstrate that while juvenile microhabitats are important nurseries, the abundance of coral-dependent fishes is not solely dependent on these microhabitats, especially when microhabitats are readily available or following large influxes of juveniles.

Climate-driven regime shift of a temperate marine ecosystem.

Ecosystem reconfigurations arising from climate-driven changes in species distributions are expected to have profound ecological, social, and economic implications. Here we reveal a rapid climate-driven regime shift of Australian temperate reef communities, which lost their defining kelp forests and became dominated by persistent seaweed turfs. After decades of ocean warming, extreme marine heat waves forced a 100-kilometer range contraction of extensive kelp forests and saw temperate species replaced by seaweeds, invertebrates, corals, and fishes characteristic of subtropical and tropical waters. This community-wide tropicalization fundamentally altered key ecological processes, suppressing the recovery of kelp forests.

Models of Marine Fish Biodiversity: Assessing Predictors from Three Habitat Classification Schemes.

Prioritising biodiversity conservation requires knowledge of where biodiversity occurs. Such knowledge, however, is often lacking. New technologies for collecting biological and physical data coupled with advances in modelling techniques could help address these gaps and facilitate improved management outcomes. Here we examined the utility of environmental data, obtained using different methods, for developing models of both uni- and multivariate biodiversity metrics. We tested which biodiversity metrics could be predicted best and evaluated the performance of predictor variables generated from three types of habitat data: acoustic multibeam sonar imagery, predicted habitat classification, and direct observer habitat classification. We used boosted regression trees (BRT) to model metrics of fish species richness, abundance and biomass, and multivariate regression trees (MRT) to model biomass and abundance of fish functional groups. We compared model performance using different sets of predictors and estimated the relative influence of individual predictors. Models of total species richness and total abundance performed best; those developed for endemic species performed worst. Abundance models performed substantially better than corresponding biomass models. In general, BRT and MRTs developed using predicted habitat classifications performed less well than those using multibeam data. The most influential individual predictor was the abiotic categorical variable from direct observer habitat classification and models that incorporated predictors from direct observer habitat classification consistently outperformed those that did not. Our results show that while remotely sensed data can offer considerable utility for predictive modelling, the addition of direct observer habitat classification data can substantially improve model performance. Thus it appears that there are aspects of marine habitats that are important for modelling metrics of fish biodiversity that are not fully captured by remotely sensed data. As such, the use of remotely sensed data to model biodiversity represents a compromise between model performance and data availability.

A robust operational model for predicting where tropical cyclone waves damage coral reefs.

Tropical cyclone (TC) waves can severely damage coral reefs. Models that predict where to find such damage (the 'damage zone') enable reef managers to: 1) target management responses after major TCs in near-real time to promote recovery at severely damaged sites; and 2) identify spatial patterns in historic TC exposure to explain habitat condition trajectories. For damage models to meet these needs, they must be valid for TCs of varying intensity, circulation size and duration. Here, we map damage zones for 46 TCs that crossed Australia's Great Barrier Reef from 1985-2015 using three models - including one we develop which extends the capability of the others. We ground truth model performance with field data of wave damage from seven TCs of varying characteristics. The model we develop (4MW) out-performed the other models at capturing all incidences of known damage. The next best performing model (AHF) both under-predicted and over-predicted damage for TCs of various types. 4MW and AHF produce strikingly different spatial and temporal patterns of damage potential when used to reconstruct past TCs from 1985-2015. The 4MW model greatly enhances both of the main capabilities TC damage models provide to managers, and is useful wherever TCs and coral reefs co-occur.