Prediction of Visual Field Progression with Baseline and Longitudinal Structural Measurements Using Deep Learning.

PURPOSE: Identifying glaucoma patients at high risk of progression based on widely available structural data is an unmet task in clinical practice. We test the hypothesis that baseline or serial structural measures can predict visual field (VF) progression with deep learning (DL). DESIGN: Development of a DL algorithm to predict VF progression. METHODS: 3,079 eyes (1,765 patients) with various types of glaucoma and ≥5 VFs, and ≥3 years of follow-up from a tertiary academic center were included. Serial VF mean deviation (MD) rates of change were estimated with linear-regression. VF progression was defined as negative MD slope with p<0.05. A Siamese Neural Network with ResNet-152 backbone pre-trained on ImageNet was designed to predict VF progression using serial optic-disc photographs (ODP), and baseline retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness. We tested the model on a separate dataset (427 eyes) with RNFL data from different OCT. The Main Outcome Measure was Area under ROC curve (AUC). RESULTS: Baseline average (SD) MD was 3.4 (4.9)dB. VF progression was detected in 900 eyes (29%). AUC (95% CI) for model incorporating baseline ODP and RNFL thickness was 0.813 (0.757-0.869). After adding the second and third ODPs, AUC increased to 0.860 and 0.894, respectively (p<0.027). This model also had highest AUC (0.911) for predicting fast progression (MD rate <1.0 dB/year). Model's performance was similar when applied to second dataset using RNFL data from another OCT device (AUC=0.893; 0.837-0.948). CONCLUSIONS: DL model predicted VF progression with clinically relevant accuracy using baseline RNFL thickness and serial ODPs and can be implemented as a clinical tool after further validation.

Prediction of visual field progression with serial optic disc photographs using deep learning.

AIM: We tested the hypothesis that visual field (VF) progression can be predicted with a deep learning model based on longitudinal pairs of optic disc photographs (ODP) acquired at earlier time points during follow-up. METHODS: 3919 eyes (2259 patients) with ≥2 ODPs at least 2 years apart, and ≥5 24-2 VF exams spanning ≥3 years of follow-up were included. Serial VF mean deviation (MD) rates of change were estimated starting at the fifth visit and subsequently by adding visits until final visit. VF progression was defined as a statistically significant negative slope at two consecutive visits and final visit. We built a twin-neural network with ResNet50-backbone. A pair of ODPs acquired up to a year before the VF progression date or the last VF in non-progressing eyes were included as input. Primary outcome measures were area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and model accuracy. RESULTS: The average (SD) follow-up time and baseline VF MD were 8.1 (4.8) years and -3.3 (4.9) dB, respectively. VF progression was identified in 761 eyes (19%). The median (IQR) time to progression in progressing eyes was 7.3 (4.5-11.1) years. The AUC and accuracy for predicting VF progression were 0.862 (0.812-0.913) and 80.0% (73.9%-84.6%). When only fast-progressing eyes were considered (MD rate < -1.0 dB/year), AUC increased to 0.926 (0.857-0.994). CONCLUSIONS: A deep learning model can predict subsequent glaucoma progression from longitudinal ODPs with clinically relevant accuracy. This model may be implemented, after validation, for predicting glaucoma progression in the clinical setting.