Incorporating plant phenological responses into species distribution models reduces estimates of future species loss and turnover.

Anthropogenetic climate change has caused range shifts among many species. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to predict how species ranges may change in the future. However, most SDMs rarely consider how climate-sensitive traits, such as phenology, which affect individuals' demography and fitness, may influence species' ranges. Using > 120 000 herbarium specimens representing 360 plant species distributed across the eastern United States, we developed a novel 'phenology-informed' SDM that integrates phenological responses to changing climates. We compared the ranges of each species forecast by the phenology-informed SDM with those from conventional SDMs. We further validated the modeling approach using hindcasting. When examining the range changes of all species, our phenology-informed SDMs forecast less species loss and turnover under climate change than conventional SDMs. These results suggest that dynamic phenological responses of species may help them adjust their ecological niches and persist in their habitats as the climate changes. Plant phenology can modulate species' responses to climate change, mitigating its negative effects on species persistence. Further application of our framework will contribute to a generalized understanding of how traits affect species distributions along environmental gradients and facilitate the use of trait-based SDMs across spatial and taxonomic scales.

Plasticity and not adaptation is the primary source of temperature-mediated variation in flowering phenology in North America.

Phenology varies widely over space and time because of its sensitivity to climate. However, whether phenological variation is primarily generated by rapid organismal responses (plasticity) or local adaptation remains unresolved. Here we used 1,038,027 herbarium specimens representing 1,605 species from the continental United States to measure flowering-time sensitivity to temperature over time (Stime) and space (Sspace). By comparing these estimates, we inferred how adaptation and plasticity historically influenced phenology along temperature gradients and how their contributions vary among species with different phenology and native climates and among ecoregions differing in species composition. Parameters Sspace and Stime were positively correlated (r = 0.87), of similar magnitude and more frequently consistent with plasticity than adaptation. Apparent plasticity and adaptation generated earlier flowering in spring, limited responsiveness in late summer and delayed flowering in autumn in response to temperature increases. Nonetheless, ecoregions differed in the relative contributions of adaptation and plasticity, from consistently greater importance of plasticity (for example, southeastern United States plains) to their nearly equal importance throughout the season (for example, Western Sierra Madre Piedmont). Our results support the hypothesis that plasticity is the primary driver of flowering-time variation along temperature gradients, with local adaptation having a widespread but comparatively limited role.

Heritability and variance components of seed size in wild species: influences of breeding design and the number of genotypes tested.

Seed size affects individual fitness in wild plant populations, but its ability to evolve may be limited by low narrow-sense heritability (h2). h2 is estimated as the proportion of total phenotypic variance (σ2P) attributable to additive genetic variance (σ2A), so low values of h2 may be due to low σ2A (potentially eroded by natural selection) or to high values of the other factors that contribute to σ2P, such as extranuclear maternal effects (m2) and environmental variance effects (e2). Here, we reviewed the published literature and performed a meta-analysis to determine whether h2 of seed size is routinely low in wild populations and, if so, which components of σ2P contribute most strongly to total phenotypic variance. We analyzed available estimates of narrow-sense heritability (h2) of seed size, as well as the variance components contributing to these parameters. Maternal and environmental components of σ2P were significantly greater than σ2A, dominance, paternal, and epistatic components. These results suggest that low h2 of seed size in wild populations (the mean value observed in this study was 0.13) is due to both high values of maternally derived and environmental (residual) σ2, and low values of σ2A in seed size. The type of breeding design used to estimate h2 and m2 also influenced their values, with studies using diallel designs generating lower variance ratios than nested and other designs. e2 was not influenced by breeding design. For some breeding designs, the number of genotypes included in a study also influenced the resulting h2 and e2 estimates, but not m2. Our data support the view that a diallel design is better suited than the alternatives for the accurate estimation of σ2A in seed size due to its factorial design and the inclusion of reciprocal crosses, which allows the independent estimation of both additive and non-additive components of variance.

Advancing frost dates have reduced frost risk among most North American angiosperms since 1980.

In recent decades, the final frost dates of winter have advanced throughout North America, and many angiosperm taxa have simultaneously advanced their flowering times as the climate has warmed. Phenological advancement may reduce plant fitness, as flowering prior to the final frost date of the winter/spring transition may damage flower buds or open flowers, limiting fruit and seed production. The risk of floral exposure to frost in the recent past and in the future, however, also depends on whether the last day of winter frost is advancing more rapidly, or less rapidly, than the date of onset of flowering in response to climate warming. This study presents the first continental-scale assessment of recent changes in frost risk to floral tissues, using digital records of 475,694 herbarium specimens representing 1,653 angiosperm species collected across North America from 1920 to 2015. For most species, among sites from which they have been collected, dates of last frost have advanced much more rapidly than flowering dates. As a result, frost risk has declined in 66% of sampled species. Moreover, exotic species consistently exhibit lower frost risk than native species, primarily because the former occupy warmer habitats where the annual frost-free period begins earlier. While reducing the probability of exposure to frost has clear benefits for the survival of flower buds and flowers, such phenological advancement may disrupt other ecological processes across North America, including pollination, herbivory, and disease transmission.

No association between genetic variants in MAOA, OXTR, and AVPR1a and cooperative strategies.

The effort to understand the genetic basis of human sociality has been encouraged by the diversity and heritability of social traits like cooperation. This task has remained elusive largely because most studies of sociality and genetics use sample sizes that are often unable to detect the small effects that single genes may have on complex social behaviors. The lack of robust findings could also be a consequence of a poor characterization of social phenotypes. Here, we explore the latter possibility by testing whether refining measures of cooperative phenotypes can increase the replication of previously reported associations between genetic variants and cooperation in small samples. Unlike most previous studies of sociality and genetics, we characterize cooperative phenotypes based on strategies rather than actions. Measuring strategies help differentiate between similar actions with different underlaying social motivations while controlling for expectations and learning. In an admixed Latino sample (n = 188), we tested whether cooperative strategies were associated with three genetic variants thought to influence sociality in humans-MAOA-uVNTR, OXTR rs53576, and AVPR1 RS3. We found no association between cooperative strategies and any of the candidate genetic variants. Since we were unable to replicate previous observations our results suggest that refining measurements of cooperative phenotypes as strategies is not enough to overcome the inherent statistical power problem of candidate gene studies.