Dams and tribal land loss in the United States.

Indigenous peoples in the United States have faced continued land dispossession for centuries. Through the reservation system as well as policies including forced removal and allotment, colonial settlers and later the federal government acquired over two billion acres from Native Nations. We argue that another important, yet understudied and unquantified, contributor to tribal land loss is through the construction of dams. By restricting water flow in rivers or lakes, dams submerge land under reservoirs and disrupt aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. This impacts livelihoods of local communities, destroys culturally important places and resources, and displaces people from their homes and land. To quantify the amount of tribal land lost as a result of dam construction, we engage in an innovative data linkage project. We use geospatial data on the boundaries of federal Indian reservations and Oklahoma Tribal Statistical Areas (OTSAs) and overlay these data with the locations of approximately 7,900 dams in the continental US. We estimate that 139 dams have submerged over 619 000 acres of land on 56 federal reservations and that 287 dams have inundated over 511 000 acres of land on 19 OTSAs. Taken together, our lower-bound estimate is that over 1.13 million acres of tribal land have been flooded under the reservoirs of 424 dams, which amounts to an area larger than Great Smokey Mountains National Park, Grand Teton National Park, and Rocky Mountain National Park combined. In light of recent federal legislation to address aging infrastructure in the US as well as the increasing risks to dam function and safety caused by climate change, dams that impact tribal land should be prioritized for removal. In cases where removal is not a preferred or viable option, alternatives include tribal ownership or funding for repairs and improvements.

Household Shocks and Adolescent Well-Being in Peru.

This paper explores the linkages between exposure to household shocks across early life and children's educational and well-being outcomes in Peru. We use longitudinal survey data for a sample of 1713 children from five rounds of the Young Lives Survey to investigate how exposure to shocks across early life is linked to test scores and well-being in adolescence and to determine the extent to which critical periods of shock exposure exist. We expand on prior work by assessing the relationship between early childhood shocks and broader metrics of adolescent well-being beyond cognitive outcomes and by evaluating the cumulative impact of shocks over the course of a child's early life. We find that exposure to a greater number of shocks across early life is negatively associated with reading and vocabulary test scores. In addition, shock exposure in adolescence-versus earlier in childhood-has the strongest negative association with testing and well-being outcomes, suggesting that older children's time and household resources may be diverted away from learning and well-being in response to shocks. In light of increasingly frequent and severe weather events associated with climate change, as well as recent large-scale economic and health crises, policies aimed at supporting the most vulnerable children should be considered to alleviate the negative consequences of shocks on children's educational outcomes and well-being. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-023-09787-x.

The Childhood Origins of Climate-Induced Mobility and Immobility.

The literature on climate exposures and human migration has focused largely on assessing short-term responses to temperature and precipitation shocks. In this paper, we suggest that this common coping strategies model can be extended to account for mechanisms that link environmental conditions to migration behavior over longer periods of time. We argue that early-life climate exposures may affect the likelihood of migration from childhood through early adulthood by influencing parental migration, community migration networks, human capital development, and decisions about household resource allocation, all of which are correlates of geographic mobility. After developing this conceptual framework, we evaluate the corresponding hypotheses using a big data approach, analyzing 20 million individual georeferenced records from 81 censuses implemented across 31 countries in tropical Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. For each world region, we estimate regression models that predict lifetime migration (a change in residence between birth and ages 30-39) as a function of temperature and precipitation anomalies in early life, defined as the year prior to birth through age four. Results suggest that early-life climate is systematically associated with changes in the probability of lifetime migration in most regions of the tropics, with the largest effects observed in sub-Saharan Africa. In East and Southern Africa, the effects of temperature shocks vary by sex and educational attainment and in a manner that suggests women and those of lower socioeconomic status are most vulnerable. Finally, we compare our main results with models using alternative measures of climate exposures. This comparison suggests climate exposures during the prenatal period and first few years of life are particularly (but not exclusively) salient for lifetime migration, which is most consistent with the hypothesized human capital mechanism.

Climate Change, Agrarian Distress, and the Feminization of Agriculture in South Asia.

Agrarian distress-the experience wherein sustaining an agricultural livelihood becomes increasingly challenging-is well documented in South Asia. Another regional trend is the feminization of agriculture, or an increase in women's work and decision-making in agriculture. Scholars have recently linked these two phenomena, demonstrating that agrarian distress results in the movement of men out of agriculture, driving women into the sector. Yet what remains underexplored is the relationship between climate change, a contributor to agrarian distress, and the feminization of agriculture. To examine this, we link socioeconomic and demographic data from India, Bangladesh, and Nepal to high-resolution gridded climate data. We then estimate a set of multivariate regression models to explore linkages between recent temperature and precipitation variability from historical norms and the likelihood that a woman works in agriculture. Results suggest that hotter-than-normal conditions in the year prior to the survey are associated with an increased likelihood of working in agriculture among women. This relationship is particularly strong among married women and women with less than a primary education. While more research is needed to fully understand the mechanisms between climate change and the feminization of agriculture, our findings suggest a need for gender-sensitive climate change adaptation strategies.

Climatic conditions and household food security: Evidence from Tanzania.

Food security and adequate nutrition are critical for achieving progress toward sustainable development. Two billion people worldwide experience moderate to severe food insecurity, and rates of hunger have increased over the past several years after declining steadily for decades. The FAO attributes this increase in large part to climate change, though empirical evidence on the relationship between climatic conditions and food security remains limited. We examine this question by linking nationally representative longitudinal data from four rounds of the Tanzania National Panel Survey to high-resolution gridded climate data. We then estimate a set of fixed effects regression models to understand the linkages between recent rainy season precipitation and temperature and two indicators of household food security: Food Consumption Score (FCS) and reduced Coping Strategies Index (rCSI). We find that low rainfall-particularly dry and cool conditions-is negatively associated with food security. Moving from a typical rainfall year to a particularly dry one increases the risk of being food insecure on both measures simultaneously by 13-percentage points. This suggests that a lack of rainfall impedes households' ability to access food, likely through reduced agricultural production and increased food prices, leading to lower dietary diversity and food shortages. Vulnerability is higher among households with fewer working age members, suggesting that households with a greater supply of labor can better withstand droughts. As climate change alters precipitation and temperature patterns over the coming decades, policies to increase resilience will be critical for improving food security, particularly among populations heavily reliant on agriculture.

Climatic Conditions and Infant Care: Implications for Child Nutrition in Rural Ethiopia.

We examine the relationships between climatic conditions, breastfeeding behavior, and maternal time use in Ethiopia. Infant feeding practices are important predictors of child nutrition that may be affected by a number of factors including mother's time engaging in agricultural labor, food security, cultural beliefs, and antenatal care. We use panel data from the Living Standards Measurement Study to investigate linkages between climatic conditions during a child's first year of life and year prior to birth and duration of exclusive breastfeeding. We then explore one potential mechanism: women's agricultural labor. Results indicate that rainfall during the primary agricultural season-kiremt-in a child's first year of life plays an important role in duration of exclusive breastfeeding. Experiencing 25 cm of average monthly kiremt rainfall, versus 5 cm, is associated with a 20-percentage-point decrease in the likelihood of being exclusively breastfed for the recommended six months. More kiremt rainfall is associated with a greater number of days that women spend planting and harvesting, and at high levels of rainfall women with infants do not engage in significantly fewer days of agricultural labor than those without infants. Lastly, we find that during the year before birth, greater rainfall during kiremt as well as the dry season is associated with a lower likelihood of six months of exclusive breastfeeding, potentially due to the early introduction of complementary foods. Our findings indicate that agricultural labor demands may in part drive breastfeeding behaviors, leading to "sub-optimal" feeding practices in the short-term, but resulting in improved household food security in the longer-term.

Food insecurity and compound environmental shocks in Nepal: Implications for a changing climate.

Food insecurity is a key global health challenge that is likely to be exacerbated by climate change. Though climate change is associated with an increased frequency of extreme weather events, little is known about how multiple environmental shocks in close succession interact to impact household health and well-being. In this paper, we assess how earthquake exposure followed by monsoon rainfall anomalies affect food insecurity in Nepal. We link food security data from the 2016 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey to data on shaking intensity during the 2015 Gorkha earthquake and rainfall anomalies during the 2015 monsoon season. We then exploit spatial variation in exposure to the earthquake and monsoon rainfall anomalies to isolate their independent and compound effects. We find that earthquake exposure alone was not associated with an increased likelihood of food insecurity, likely due in part to effective food aid distribution. However, the effects of rainfall anomalies differed by severity of earthquake exposure. Among households minimally impacted by the earthquake, low rainfall was associated with increased food insecurity, likely due to lower agricultural productivity in drought conditions. Among households that experienced at least moderate shaking, greater rainfall was positively associated with food insecurity, particularly in steep, mountainous areas. In these locations, rainfall events disproportionately increased landslides, which damaged roads, disrupted distribution of food aid, and destroyed agricultural land and assets. Additional research on the social impacts of compound environmental shocks is needed to inform adaptation strategies that work to improve well-being in the face of climate change.

Hydropower development, collective action, and environmental justice in the Brazilian Amazon.

The Brazilian Amazon has long served as a site of infrastructure development and natural resource extraction. Development projects including dams and mines have largely benefitted distant urban actors at a cost to local communities and the environment. We draw from theories of internal colonialism and environmental justice to examine the ways that dam building undermined the well-being of communities affected by construction of the Belo Monte Dam, and to understand how those communities engaged in collective action to minimize negative impacts on their livelihoods. Drawing from semi-structured interview and ethnographic data, we find that farmers and fishers impacted by Belo Monte used a variety of tactics to resist exploitation and ultimately receive more equitable compensation for their losses. We propose two processes were central to their success in mobilizing for environmental justice: transformative resistance and collaborative claims-making.

Stunted from the start: Early life weather conditions and child undernutrition in Ethiopia.

This paper examines the relationship between weather conditions and child nutrition in Ethiopia. We link data from four rounds of the Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey to high-resolution climate data to measure exposure to rainfall and temperature in utero and during early life. We then estimate a set of multivariate regression models to understand how weather conditions impact child stunting, an indicator of sustained early life undernutrition. We find that greater rainfall during the rainy seasons in early life is associated with greater height for age. In addition, higher temperatures in utero, particularly during the first and third trimesters, and more rainfall during the third trimester, are positively associated with severe stunting, though stunting decreases with temperature in early life. We find potential evidence for a number of pathways underlying the weather-child nutrition relationship including agricultural livelihoods, heat stress, infectious disease transmission, and women's time use during pregnancy. These findings illuminate the complex pathways through which climate change may influence child health and should motivate additional research focused on identifying the causal mechanisms underlying these links.

Climate change and educational attainment in the global tropics.

Climate change may negatively impact education among children via exposure to extreme temperature and precipitation conditions. We link census data from 29 countries across the global tropics to high-resolution gridded climate data to understand how climatic conditions experienced in utero and during early childhood affect educational attainment at ages 12 to 16. We show that exposure to higher-than-average temperatures during the prenatal and early-life period is associated with fewer years of schooling in Southeast Asia. In this region, a child who experiences temperatures 2 SDs above average is predicted to attain 1.5 fewer years of schooling than one who experiences average temperatures. In addition, early-life rainfall is positively correlated with attainment in West and Central Africa as well as Southeast Asia, and negatively correlated with attainment in Central America and the Caribbean. While we expected that children from the most educated households would be buffered from these effects, we discover that they tend to experience the greatest educational penalties when exposed to hotter early-life conditions and, in some regions, to drier conditions. For example, among the most educated households in West and Central Africa, predicted schooling is 1.8 years lower for children who experience early-life rainfall 2 SDs below average versus 2 SDs above average, while the difference is just 0.8 years for children from the least educated households. These results suggest that development and educational gains in the tropics could be undermined by climate change, even for better-off households.

Forced Migration and Changing Livelihoods in the Brazilian Amazon.

Forced migration due to development projects or environmental change impacts livelihoods, as affected households are faced with new-and often less favorable-environmental, social, and economic conditions. This article examines changing livelihood strategies among a population of rural agricultural households displaced by the Belo Monte Dam in the Brazilian Amazon. Using longitudinal data, I find that many households used compensation payments to concentrate income generation efforts on the most lucrative strategies-cacao and cattle production and business or rental income. Poorer households and those that received the least compensation were more likely to continue relying on agricultural wage labor-a less desirable income source associated with not owning land or with persons needing to supplement income with additional work as a day laborer. Results also indicate that the amount of compensation received by most households was sufficient to enable them to make productive investments beyond attaining replacement land and housing. Many households invested in assets such as agricultural infrastructure, cattle, rental houses, or tractors-all of which directly contribute to future income. Displacement compensation, similar to remittances or conditional cash transfers, can therefore act as an important infusion of capital to promote socioeconomic development and poverty reduction.

Structure and agency in development-induced forced migration: the case of Brazil's Belo Monte Dam.

This paper examines how structure and agency interact to shape forced migration outcomes. Specifically, I ask how structural factors such as compensation policies as well as social, financial, and human capital may either foster or constrain migration aspirations and capabilities. I use longitudinal, semi-structured interview data to study forced migration among farmers displaced by the Belo Monte Dam in the Brazilian Amazon. Results from baseline interviews indicate that nearly all community members aspired to purchase rural land in the region and maintain livelihoods as cacao farmers or cattle ranchers. Constraints limiting the ability to attain aspirations included strict requirements on land titles for properties, delays in receiving compensation, rising land prices, and the lack of power to negotiate for better compensation. Despite these constraints, most migrants succeeded in attaining aspirations, as they were able to mobilize resources such as social networks, financial capital, skills, and knowledge. These findings highlight the importance of considering the relationship between structure and agency within forced migration research. I conclude by discussing how the findings may inform resettlement policies for future cases of development- or environment-induced forced migration.

The short-term impacts of development-induced displacement on wealth and subjective well-being in the Brazilian Amazon.

Displacement due to development projects such as dams, mines, and urban infrastructure often leads to livelihood decline among affected communities. The challenge, therefore, lies in implementing projects that achieve national or regional development goals while also generating positive social and economic outcomes for displaced populations. This paper uses a longitudinal, mixed-methods design to understand the short-term changes in wealth and subjective well-being of households displaced due to construction of the Belo Monte Dam in the Brazilian Amazon. The households were compensated by either cash or credit for their lost land and assets, and were then responsible for finding and purchasing new property. Using pre- and post-displacement household survey and semi-structured interview data, as well as data from a small comparison group, I find that wealth increased for the majority of the study population and that socioeconomic inequality decreased, as poorer households experienced greater improvements in housing conditions, assets, and property ownership. In addition, subjective well-being improved for most households, particularly among those who did not own land at baseline, those who gained assets such as vehicles, those who remained closer to the original study area, and those who remained in close proximity to other households from the study population. Moving to an urban destination was strongly associated with declines in well-being, as was moving far from family or friends. These results suggest that investing sufficient resources in a compensation-based resettlement program can benefit households displaced by large infrastructure projects in the short term, but additional data collection is needed after the completion of dam construction to determine whether these benefits are sustained over the longer term.

Climate variability and educational attainment: Evidence from rural Ethiopia.

This paper examines the effects of climate variability on schooling outcomes in rural Ethiopia. Investments in education serve as an important pathway out of poverty, yet reduced agricultural productivity due to droughts or temperature shocks may affect educational attainment if children receive poorer nutrition during early childhood, are required to participate in household income generation during schooling ages, or if households can no longer pay for school-related expenses. We link longitudinal socioeconomic, demographic, and schooling data from the Ethiopian Rural Household Survey to high-resolution gridded climate data to measure exposure to temperature and precipitation relative to historical norms. We then estimate a set of multivariate regression models to understand how climate variability impacts grade attainment and school enrollment. Results indicate that early life climatic conditions - namely milder temperatures during all seasons and greater rainfall during the summer agricultural season - are associated with an increased likelihood of a child having completed any education. In addition, greater summer rainfall during both early life and school ages is associated with having completed any schooling as well as with attending school at the time of the survey. These findings suggest that future climate change may reduce children's school participation in rural Sub-Saharan Africa, slowing progress toward human development goals and poverty alleviation.

Networks Versus Need: Drivers of Urban Out-Migration in the Brazilian Amazon.

As urbanization rates rise globally, it becomes increasingly important to understand the factors associated with urban out-migration. In this paper, we examine the drivers of urban out-migration among young adults in two medium-sized cities in the Brazilian Amazon-Altamira and Santarém-focusing on the roles of social capital, human capital, and socioeconomic deprivation. Using household survey data from 1,293 individuals in the two cities, we employ an event history model to assess factors associated with migration and a binary logit model to understand factors associated with remitting behavior. We find that in Altamira, migration tends to be an individual-level opportunistic strategy fostered by extra-local family networks, while in Santarém, migration tends to be a household-level strategy driven by socioeconomic deprivation and accompanied by remittances. These results indicate that urban out-migration in Brazil is a diverse social process, and that the relative roles of extra-local networks versus economic need can function quite differently between geographically proximate but historically and socioeconomically distinct cities.

Socio-economic status and malaria-related outcomes in Mvomero District, Tanzania.

While policies often target malaria prevention and treatment - proximal causes of malaria and related health outcomes - too little attention has been given to the role of household- and individual-level socio-economic status (SES) as a fundamental cause of disease risk in developing countries. This paper presents a conceptual model outlining ways in which SES may influence malaria-related outcomes. Building on this conceptual model, we use household data from rural Mvomero, Tanzania, to examine empirical relationships among multiple measures of household and individual SES and demographics, on the one hand, and malaria prevention, illness, and diagnosis and treatment behaviours, on the other. We find that access to prevention and treatment is significantly associated with indicators of households' wealth; education-based disparities do not emerge in this context. Meanwhile, reported malaria illness shows a stronger association with demographic variables than with SES (controlling for prevention). Greater understanding of the mechanisms through which SES and malaria policies interact to influence disease risk can help to reduce health disparities and reduce the malaria burden in an equitable manner.

Travel risk, malaria importation and malaria transmission in Zanzibar.

The prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Zanzibar has reached historic lows. Improving control requires quantifying malaria importation rates, identifying high-risk travelers, and assessing onwards transmission.Estimates of Zanzibar's importation rate were calculated through two independent methodologies. First, mobile phone usage data and ferry traffic between Zanzibar and mainland Tanzania were re-analyzed using a model of heterogeneous travel risk. Second, a dynamic mathematical model of importation and transmission rates was used.Zanzibar residents traveling to malaria endemic regions were estimated to contribute 1-15 times more imported cases than infected visitors. The malaria importation rate was estimated to be 1.6 incoming infections per 1,000 inhabitants per year. Local transmission was estimated too low to sustain transmission in most places.Malaria infections in Zanzibar largely result from imported malaria and subsequent transmission. Plasmodium falciparum malaria elimination appears feasible by implementing control measures based on detecting imported malaria cases and controlling onward transmission.

Environmental management for malaria control: knowledge and practices in Mvomero, Tanzania.

Environmental conditions play an important role in the transmission of malaria; therefore, regulating these conditions can help to reduce disease burden. Environmental management practices for disease control can be implemented at the community level to complement other malaria control methods. This study assesses current knowledge and practices related to mosquito ecology and environmental management for malaria control in a rural, agricultural region of Tanzania. Household surveys were conducted with 408 randomly selected respondents from 10 villages and qualitative data were collected through focus group discussions and in-depth interviews. Results show that respondents are well aware of the links between mosquitoes, the environment, and malaria. Most respondents stated that cleaning the environment around the home, clearing vegetation around the home, or draining stagnant water can reduce mosquito populations, and 63% of respondents reported performing at least one of these techniques to protect themselves from malaria. It is clear that many respondents believe that these environmental management practices are effective malaria control methods, but the actual efficacy of these techniques for controlling populations of vectors or reducing malaria prevalence in the varying ecological habitats in Mvomero is unknown. Further research should be conducted to determine the effects of different environmental management practices on both mosquito populations and malaria transmission in this region, and increased participation in effective techniques should be promoted.