Extreme vulnerability of smallholder farmers to agricultural risks and climate change in Madagascar.

Across the tropics, smallholder farmers already face numerous risks to agricultural production. Climate change is expected to disproportionately affect smallholder farmers and make their livelihoods even more precarious; however, there is limited information on their overall vulnerability and adaptation needs. We conducted surveys of 600 households in Madagascar to characterize the vulnerability of smallholder farmers, identify how farmers cope with risks and explore what strategies are needed to help them adapt to climate change. Malagasy farmers are particularly vulnerable to any shocks to their agricultural system owing to their high dependence on agriculture for their livelihoods, chronic food insecurity, physical isolation and lack of access to formal safety nets. Farmers are frequently exposed to pest and disease outbreaks and extreme weather events (particularly cyclones), which cause significant crop and income losses and exacerbate food insecurity. Although farmers use a variety of risk-coping strategies, these are insufficient to prevent them from remaining food insecure. Few farmers have adjusted their farming strategies in response to climate change, owing to limited resources and capacity. Urgent technical, financial and institutional support is needed to improve the agricultural production and food security of Malagasy farmers and make their livelihoods resilient to climate change.

Economic analysis of best management practices to reduce watershed phosphorus losses.

In phosphorus-limited freshwater systems, small increases in phosphorus (P) concentrations can lead to eutrophication. To reduce P inputs to these systems, various environmental and agricultural agencies provide producers with incentives to implement best management practices (BMPs). In this study, we examine both the water quality and economic consequences of systematically protecting saturated, runoff-generating areas from active agriculture with selected BMPs. We also examine the joint water quality/economic impacts of these BMPs-specifically BMPs focusing on barnyards and buffer areas. Using the Variable Source Loading Function model (a modified Generalized Watershed Loading Function model) and net present value analysis (NPV), the results indicate that converting runoff-prone agricultural land to buffers and installing barnyard BMPs are both highly effective in decreasing dissolved P loss from a single-farm watershed, but are also costly for the producer. On average, including barnyard BMPs decreases the nutrient loading by about 5.5% compared with only implementing buffers. The annualized NPV for installing both buffers on only the wettest areas of the landscape and implementing barnyard BMPs becomes positive only if the BMPs lifetime exceeds 15 yr. The spatial location of the BMPs in relation to runoff producing areas, the time frame over which the BMPs are implemented, and the marginal costs of increasing buffer size were found to be the most critical considerations for water quality and profitability. The framework presented here incorporates estimations of nutrient loading reductions in the economic analysis, and is applicable to farms facing BMP adoption decisions.

Modeling watershed-scale effectiveness of agricultural best management practices to reduce phosphorus loading.

Planners advocate best management practices (BMPs) to reduce loss of sediment and nutrients in agricultural areas. However, the scientific community lacks tools that use readily available data to investigate the relationships between BMPs and their spatial locations and water quality. In rural, humid regions where runoff is associated with saturation-excess processes from variable source areas (VSAs), BMPs are potentially most effective when they are located in areas that produce the majority of the runoff. Thus, two critical elements necessary to predict the water quality impact of BMPs include correct identification of VSAs and accurate predictions of nutrient reduction due to particular BMPs. The objective of this research was to determine the effectiveness of BMPs using the Variable Source Loading Function (VSLF) model, which captures the spatial and temporal evolutions of VSAs in the landscape. Data from a long-term monitoring campaign on a 164-ha farm in the New York City source watersheds in the Catskills Mountains of New York state were used to evaluate the effectiveness of a range of BMPs. The data spanned an 11-year period over which a suite of BMPs, including a nutrient management plan, riparian buffers, filter strips and fencing, was installed to reduce phosphorus (P) loading. Despite its simplicity, VSLF predicted the spatial distribution of runoff producing areas well. Dissolved P reductions were simulated well by using calibrated reduction factors for various BMPs in the VSLF model. Total P losses decreased only after cattle crossings were installed in the creek. The results demonstrated that BMPs, when sited with respect to VSAs, reduce P loss from agricultural watersheds, providing useful information for targeted water quality management.