Phenotype and predictors of insulin independence in adults presenting with diabetic ketoacidosis: a prospective cohort study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this work was to describe the phenotype of adults presenting with a first episode of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) in Cape Town, South Africa, and identify predictors of insulin independence at 12 and 60 months after presentation. METHODS: A prospective, descriptive cohort study of all individuals, 18 years or older, presenting for the first time with DKA to four public-sector hospitals of the Groote Schuur Academic Health Complex was performed. Clinical, biochemical and laboratory data including GAD antibody and C-peptide status were collected at baseline. Insulin was systematically weaned and stopped in individuals who achieved normoglycaemia within the months after DKA. Individuals were followed for 12 months and then annually until 5 years after initial presentation with ketoacidosis. RESULTS: Eighty-eight individuals newly diagnosed with diabetes when presenting with DKA were included and followed for 5 years. The mean ± SD age was 35±10 years and the median (IQR) BMI at diagnosis was 28.5 (23.3-33.4) kg/m2. Overall, 46% were insulin independent 12 months after diagnosis and 26% remained insulin independent 5 years after presentation. Forty-one participants (47%) tested negative for anti-GAD and anti-IA-2 antibodies and had C-peptide levels >0.3 nmol/l; in this group, 68% were insulin independent at 12 months and 37% at 5 years after diagnosis. The presence of acanthosis nigricans was strongly associated with insulin independence (OR 27.1 [95% CI 7.2, 102.2]; p<0.001); a positive antibody status was associated with a lower likelihood of insulin independence at 12 months (OR 0.10 [95% CI 0.03, 0.36]; p<0.001). On multivariable analysis only acanthosis (OR 11.5 [95% CI 2.5, 53.2]; p=0.004) was predictive of insulin independence 5 years after diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The predominant phenotype of adults presenting with a first episode of DKA in Cape Town, South Africa, was that of ketosis-prone type 2 diabetes. These individuals presented with obesity, acanthosis nigricans, negative antibodies and normal C-peptide and could potentially be weaned off insulin at follow-up. Classic type 1 diabetes (lower weight, antibody positivity, low or unrecordable C-peptide levels and long-term insulin dependence) was less common. The simple clinical sign of acanthosis nigricans is a strong predictor of insulin independence at 12 months and 5 years after initial presentation.

Adherence to a care bundle for Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia: A retrospective cohort study.

Background: Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia is associated with high hospital mortality. Improvements in outcome have been described with standardised bundles of care. Objectives: To study the adherence of a standardised bundle of care (BOC) recommendations using a consultation pro forma, for all patients admitted with S. aureus bacteraemia to Groote Schuur Hospital over a year. The study further aimed to describe the 90-day mortality in these patients and to assess for an association between adherence to the bundle of care and outcome. Method: A retrospective audit of all unsolicited infectious disease consultations for patients with S. aureus bacteraemia admitted to Groote Schuur Hospital during 2018. Adherence to recommendations of a standard bundle of care was audited. Results: A total of 86 patients were included in the study: 61 (71%) with hospital-associated infection and 25 (29%) with community-associated infection. Over 80% of adherence to treatment recommendations was achieved regarding antibiotic (including vancomycin) usage, source control and use of echocardiography as required. In-hospital mortality was 16%, while the overall 90-day mortality was 18%, with only age as an independent predictor of mortality. No association between adherence to the bundle of care and outcome was found. Conclusion: Adherence to a simple, structured bundle of care was good when using standardised pro forma as communication tools for advice and a structured antibiotic chart for vancomycin administration. Although adherence was not associated with outcome, the overall mortality for S. aureus bacteraemia was improving in the institution under study. Contribution: Our findings support feasibility and ongoing use of bundles of care for S. aureus bacteraemia in similar settings.

Dulaglutide and cardiovascular and heart failure outcomes in patients with and without heart failure: a post-hoc analysis from the REWIND randomized trial.

AIMS: People with diabetes are at high risk for cardiovascular events including heart failure (HF). We examined the effect of the glucagon-like peptide 1 agonist dulaglutide on incident HF events and other cardiovascular outcomes in those with or without prior HF in the randomized placebo-controlled Researching Cardiovascular Events with a Weekly Incretin in Diabetes (REWIND) trial. METHODS AND RESULTS: The REWIND major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) outcome was the first occurrence of a composite endpoint of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, or death from cardiovascular causes (including unknown causes). In this post-hoc analysis, a HF event was defined as an adjudication-confirmed hospitalization or urgent evaluation for HF. Of the 9901 participants studied over a median follow-up of 5.4 years, 213/4949 (4.3%) randomly assigned to dulaglutide and 226/4952 (4.6%) participants assigned to placebo experienced a HF event (hazard ratio [HR] 0.93, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.77-1.12; p = 0.456). In the 853 (8.6%) participants with HF at baseline, there was no change in either MACE or HF events with dulaglutide as compared to participants without HF (p = 0.44 and 0.19 for interaction, respectively). Combined cardiovascular death and HF events were marginally reduced with dulaglutide compared to placebo (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.78-1.00; p = 0.050) but unchanged in patients with and without HF at baseline (p = 0.31). CONCLUSIONS: Dulaglutide was not associated with a reduction in HF events in patients with type 2 diabetes regardless of baseline HF status over 5.4 years of follow-up.

A novel kidney disease index reflecting both the albumin-to-creatinine ratio and estimated glomerular filtration rate, predicted cardiovascular and kidney outcomes in type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: The estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and the albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) are risk factors for diabetes-related outcomes. A composite that captures information from both may provide a simpler way of assessing risk. METHODS: 9115 of 9901 Researching Cardiovascular Events with a Weekly Incretin in Diabetes (REWIND) participants with both an ACR and eGFR at baseline were included in this post hoc epidemiologic analysis. The hazard of higher baseline levels of 1/eGFR and natural log transformed ACR (calculated as ln [ACR × 100] to eliminate negative values) and their interaction for incident major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), kidney outcomes, and deaths was estimated. The hazard of the geometric mean of these two baseline measures (the kidney disease index or KDI) was also assessed. RESULTS: A non-linear relationship was observed between 1/eGFR and all three outcomes, and between ln [ACR × 100] and the kidney outcome. There was also a negative interaction between these two risk factors with respect to MACE and death. Conversely, a linear relationship was noted between the KDI and all three outcomes. People in the highest KDI fifth experienced the highest incidence of MACE, death, and the kidney outcome (4.43, 4.56, and 5.55/100 person-years respectively). C statistics for the KDI were similar to those for eGFR and albuminuria. CONCLUSIONS: The KDI combines the baseline eGFR and ACR into a novel composite risk factor that has a simple linear relationship with incident serious outcomes in people with diabetes and additional CV risk factors. Trial Registration clinicaltrials.gov NCT01394952.

Novel Indices of Cognitive Impairment and Incident Cardiovascular Outcomes in the REWIND Trial.

CONTEXT: Low cognitive scores are risk factors for cardiovascular outcomes. Whether this relationship is stronger using novel cognitive indices is unknown. METHODS: Participants in the Researching Cardiovascular Events with a Weekly Incretin in Diabetes (REWIND) trial who completed both the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) score and Digit Substitution Test (DSST) at baseline (N = 8772) were included. These scores were used to identify participants with baseline substantive cognitive impairment (SCI), defined as a baseline score on either the MoCA or DSST ≥ 1.5 SD below either score's country-specific mean, or SCI-GM, which was based on a composite index of both scores calculated as their geometric mean (GM), and defined as a score that was ≥ 1.5 SD below their country's average GM. Relationships between these measures and incident major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), and either stroke or death were analyzed. RESULTS: Compared with 7867 (89.7%) unaffected participants, the 905 (10.3%) participants with baseline SCI had a higher incidence of MACE (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.34; 95% CI 1.11, 1.62; P = 0.003), and stroke or death (unadjusted HR 1.60; 95% CI 1.33, 1.91; P < 0.001). Stronger relationships were noted for SCI-GM and MACE (unadjusted HR 1.61; 95% CI 1.28, 2.01; P < 0.001), and stroke or death (unadjusted HR 1.85; 95% CI 1.50, 2.30; P < 0.001). For SCI-GM but not SCI, all these relationships remained significant in models that adjusted for up to 10 SCI risk factors. CONCLUSION: Country-standardized SCI-GM was a strong independent predictor of cardiovascular events in people with type 2 diabetes in the REWIND trial.

Dulaglutide and incident atrial fibrillation or flutter in patients with type 2 diabetes: A post hoc analysis from the REWIND randomized trial.

AIM: To assess the occurrence of atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter (atrial arrhythmias [AA]) in patients with type 2 diabetes treated with once-weekly subcutaneous dulaglutide versus placebo. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients without electrocardiographic (ECG)-confirmed AA at baseline and randomized in the REWIND trial were assessed for the development of AA based on an annual ECG. Additional analyses included whether dulaglutide compared with placebo reduced the composite outcome of AA or death, AA or cardiovascular death, AA or stroke and AA or heart failure. RESULTS: Among 9543 participants (mean age 66 ± 7 years, with cardiovascular risk factors and 31% with previous cardiovascular disease) without AA at entry in the trial, 524 patients (5.5%) had at least one episode of AA during the median 5.4 years of follow-up. Incident AA occurred in 269 of the 4769 participants allocated to dulaglutide (5.6%), at a rate of 10.7 per 1000 person-years, versus 255 of the 4774 allocated to placebo (5.3%), at a rate of 10.5 per 1000 person-years (P = .59). There was also no effect of dulaglutide on the composite outcome of AA and death or AA and heart failure. CONCLUSION: This post hoc analysis of data from the REWIND trial showed that treatment with dulaglutide was not associated with a reduced incidence of AA in this at-risk group of patients with type 2 diabetes.

Risk factors for COVID-19 hospitalisation and death in people living with diabetes: A virtual cohort study from the Western Cape Province, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 outcomes and risk factors, including comorbidities and medication regimens, in people living with diabetes (PLWD) are poorly defined for low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: The Provincial Health Data Centre (Western Cape, South Africa) is a health information exchange collating patient-level routine health data for approximately 4 million public sector health care seekers. Data from COVID-19 patients diagnosed between March and July 2020, including PLWD, were analysed to describe risk factors, including dispensed diabetes medications and comorbidities, and their association with COVID-19 outcomes in this population. FINDINGS: There were 64,476 COVID-19 patients diagnosed. Of 9305 PLWD, 44.9% were hospitalised, 4.0% admitted to ICU, 0.6% received ventilation and 15.4% died. In contrast, proportions of COVID-19 patients without diabetes were: 12.2% hospitalised, 1.0% admitted, 0.1% ventilated and 4.6% died. PLWD were significantly more likely to be admitted (OR:3.73, 95 %CI: 3.53, 3.94) and to die (OR:3.01, 95 %CI: 2.76,3.28). Significant hospitalised risk factors included HIV infection, chronic kidney disease, current TB, male sex and increasing age. Significant risk factors for mortality were CKD, male sex, HIV infection, previous TB and increasing age. Pre-infection use of insulin was associated with a significant increased risk for hospitalisation (OR:1·39, 95 %CI:1·24,1·57) and mortality (OR1·49, 95 %CI:1·27; 1·74) and metformin was associated with a reduced risk for hospitalisation (OR:0·62,95 %CI:0·55, 0·71) and mortality (OR 0·77, 95 %CI:0·64; 0·92). INTERPRETATION: Using routine health data from this large virtual cohort, we have described the association of infectious and noncommunicable comorbidities as well as pre-infection diabetes medications with COVID-19 outcomes in PLWD in the Western Cape, South Africa. FUNDING: This research was funded in part, by the Wellcome Trust 203135/Z/16/Z, through support of NT. For the purpose of open access, the author has applied a CC BY public copyright licence to any Author Accepted Manuscript version arising from this submission. The Wellcome Centre for Infectious Diseases Research in Africa is supported by core funding from the Wellcome Trust [203135/Z/16/Z]. NT receives funding from the CIDRI-Africa Wellcome Trust grant (203135/Z/16/Z), and NT and TT receive funding from the NIH H3ABioNET award (U24HG006941). NT receives funding from the UKRI/MRC (MC_PC_MR/T037733/1).

Efficacy and Safety of Dulaglutide in Older Patients: A post hoc Analysis of the REWIND trial.

CONTEXT: Dulaglutide reduced major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in the Researching Cardiovascular Events with a Weekly INcretin in Diabetes (REWIND) trial. Its efficacy and safety in older vs younger patients have not been explicitly analyzed. OBJECTIVE: This work aimed to assess efficacy and safety of dulaglutide vs placebo in REWIND by age subgroups (≥ 65 and < 65 years). METHODS: A post hoc subgroup analysis of REWIND was conducted at 371 sites in 24 countries. Participants included type 2 diabetes patients aged 50 years or older with established cardiovascular (CV) disease or multiple CV risk factors, and a wide range of glycemic control. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to dulaglutide 1.5 mg or placebo as an add-on to country-specific standard of care. Main outcomes measures included MACE (first occurrence of the composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or death from CV or unknown causes). RESULTS: There were 5256 randomly assigned patients who were 65 years or older (mean = 71.0), and 4645 were younger than 65 years (mean = 60.7). Baseline characteristics were similar in randomized treatment groups. Dulaglutide treatment showed a similar reduction in the incidence (11% vs 13%) of MACE in older vs younger patients. The rate of permanent study drug discontinuation, incidence of all-cause mortality, hospitalizations for heart failure, severe hypoglycemia, severe renal or urinary events, and serious gastrointestinal events were similar between randomized treatment groups within each age subgroup. The incidence rate of serious cardiac conduction disorders was numerically higher in the dulaglutide group compared to placebo within each age subgroup but the difference was not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: Dulaglutide had similar efficacy and safety in REWIND in patients65 years and older and those younger than 65 years.

Total cardiovascular or fatal events in people with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular risk factors treated with dulaglutide in the REWIND trail: a post hoc analysis.

BACKGROUND: The Researching cardiovascular Events with a Weekly INcretin in Diabetes (REWIND) double blind randomized trial demonstrated that weekly subcutaneous dulaglutide 1.5 mg, a glucagon like peptide-1 receptor agonist, versus matched placebo reduced the first outcome of major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE), cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction or nonfatal stroke (594 versus 663 events) in 9901 persons with type 2 diabetes and either chronic cardiovascular disease or risk factors, and followed during 5.4 years. These findings were based on a time-to-first-event analysis and preclude relevant information on the burden of total major events occurring during the trial. This analysis reports on the total cardiovascular or fatal events in the REWIND participants METHODS: We compared the total incidence of MACE or non-cardiovascular deaths, and the total incidence of expanded MACE (MACE, unstable angina, heart failure or revascularization) or non-cardiovascular deaths between participants randomized to dulaglutide and those randomized to placebo. Incidences were expressed as number per 1000 person-years. Hazard ratios (HR) were calculated using the conditional time gap and proportional means models. RESULTS: Participants had a mean age of 66.2 years, 46.3% were women and 31% had previous cardiovascular disease. During the trial there were 1972 MACE or non-cardiovascular deaths and 3673 expanded MACE or non-cardiovascular deaths. The incidence of total MACE or non-cardiovascular deaths in the dulaglutide and placebo groups was 35.8 and 40.3 per 1000 person-years, respectively [absolute reduction = 4.5 per 1000 person-years; conditional time gap HR 0.90 (95% CI, 0.82-0.98) p = 0.020, and proportional means HR 0.89 (95% CI, 0.80-0.98) p = 0.022]. The incidence of total expanded MACE or non-cardiovascular deaths in the dulaglutide and placebo groups was 67.1 and 74.7 per 1000 person-years, respectively [absolute reduction = 7.6 per 1000 person-years; conditional time gap HR 0.93 (95% CI, 0.87-0.99) p = 0.023, and proportional means HR 0.90 (95% CI, 0.82-0.99) p = 0.028]. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that weekly subcutaneous dulaglutide reduced total cardiovascular or fatal event burden in people with type 2 diabetes at moderate cardiovascular risk. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://www.clinicaltrials.gouv . Unique Identifier NCT01394952).

The effectiveness of peer and community health worker-led self-management support programs for improving diabetes health-related outcomes in adults in low- and-middle-income countries: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: Community-based peer and community health worker-led diabetes self-management programs (COMP-DSMP) can benefit diabetes care, but the supporting evidence has been inadequately assessed. This systematic review explores the nature of COMP-DSMP in low- and middle-income countries' (LMIC) primary care settings and evaluates implementation strategies and diabetes-related health outcomes. METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Library, PubMed-MEDLINE, SCOPUS, CINAHL PsycINFO Database, International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, Clinicaltrials.gov, Pan African Clinical Trials Registry (PACTR), and HINARI (Health InterNetwork Access to Research Initiative) for studies that evaluated a COMP-DSMP in adults with either type 1 or type 2 diabetes in World Bank-defined LMIC from January 2000 to December 2019. Randomised and non-randomised controlled trials with at least 3 months follow-up and reporting on a behavioural, a primary psychological, and/or a clinical outcome were included. Implementation strategies were analysed using the standardised implementation framework by Proctor et al. Heterogeneity in study designs, outcomes, the scale of measurements, and measurement times precluded meta-analysis; thus, a narrative description of studies is provided. RESULTS: Of the 702 records identified, eleven studies with 6090 participants were included. COMP-DSMPs were inconsistently associated with improvements in clinical, behavioural, and psychological outcomes. Many of the included studies were evaluated as being of low quality, most had a substantial risk of bias, and there was a significant heterogeneity of the intervention characteristics (for example, peer definition, selection, recruitment, training and type, dose, and duration of delivered intervention), such that generalisation was not possible. CONCLUSIONS: The level of evidence of this systematic review was considered low according to the GRADE criteria. The existing evidence however does show some improvements in outcomes. We recommend ongoing, but well-designed studies using a framework such as the MRC framework for the development and evaluation of complex interventions to inform the evidence base on the contribution of COMP-DSMP in LMIC.

Effect of dulaglutide on cognitive impairment in type 2 diabetes: an exploratory analysis of the REWIND trial.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes is an independent risk factor for cognitive impairment. We aimed to investigate the association between the glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist dulaglutide and cognitive impairment as an exploratory analysis within the Researching Cardiovascular Events With a Weekly Incretin in Diabetes (REWIND) trial. METHODS: REWIND is a randomised, double-blind placebo-controlled trial at 371 sites in 24 countries. We included men and women (aged ≥50 years) with either established or newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes and additional cardiovascular risk factors, glycated haemoglobin of up to 9·5% (80 mmol/mol) on a maximum of two oral glucose-lowering drugs with or without basal insulin, and a body-mass index of at least 23 kg/m2. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) subcutaneous injections once a week of either dulaglutide (1·5 mg) or an equal volume of matching placebo. Randomisation was done using a computer-generated code with stratification by site. Participants and all study personnel were masked to treatment allocation until the database was locked. Participants were followed up at least every 6 months for the composite primary outcome of stroke, myocardial infarction, or death from cardiovascular or unknown causes. Cognitive function was assessed at baseline and during follow-up using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) and Digit Symbol Substitution Test (DSST). We present here the exploratory primary cognitive outcome, which was the first occurrence of a follow-up score on MoCA or DSST that was 1·5 SDs or more below the baseline mean score in the participant's country. All analyses were done using an intention-to-treat approach. The REWIND trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01394952. FINDINGS: Between Aug 18, 2011, and Aug 14, 2013, 9901 participants were randomly assigned to either dulaglutide (n=4949) or placebo (n=4952). During median follow-up of 5·4 (IQR 5·1-5·9) years, 8828 participants provided a baseline and one or more follow-up MoCA or DSST scores, of whom 4456 were assigned dulaglutide and 4372 were assigned placebo. The cognitive outcome occurred in 4·05 per 100 patient-years in participants assigned dulaglutide and 4·35 per 100 patient-years in people assigned placebo (hazard ratio [HR] 0·93, 95% CI 0·85-1·02; p=0·11). After post-hoc adjustment for individual standardised baseline scores, the hazard of substantive cognitive impairment was reduced by 14% in those assigned dulaglutide (HR 0·86, 95% CI 0·79-0·95; p=0·0018). INTERPRETATION: Long-term treatment with dulaglutide might reduce cognitive impairment in people with type 2 diabetes. Further studies of this drug focused on brain health and cognitive function are clearly indicated. FUNDING: Eli Lilly and Company.

The effect of dulaglutide on stroke: an exploratory analysis of the REWIND trial.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular outcome trials have suggested that glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists might reduce strokes. We analysed the effect of dulaglutide on stroke within the researching cardiovascular events with a weekly incretin in diabetes (REWIND) trial. METHODS: REWIND was a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial done at 371 sites in 24 countries. Men and women (aged ≥50 years) with established or newly detected type 2 diabetes whose HbA1c was 9·5% or less (with no lower limit) on stable doses of up to two oral glucose-lowering drugs with or without basal insulin therapy were eligible if their body-mass index was at least 23 kg/m2. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to weekly subcutaneous injections of either masked dulaglutide 1·5 mg or the same volume of masked placebo (containing the same excipients but without dulaglutide). Randomisation was done by a computer-generated random code with an interactive web response system with stratification by site. Participants, investigators, the trial leadership, and all other personnel were masked to treatment allocation until the trial was completed and the database was locked. During the treatment period, participants in both groups were instructed to inject study drug on the same day at around the same time, each week. Strokes were categorised as fatal or non-fatal, and as either ischaemic, haemorrhagic, or undetermined. Stroke severity was assessed using the modified Rankin scale. Participants were seen at 2 weeks, 3 months, 6 months, and then every 3 months for drug dispensing and every 6 months for detailed assessments, until 1200 confirmed primary outcomes accrued. The primary endpoint was the first occurrence of any component of the composite outcome, which comprised non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, or death from cardiovascular or unknown causes. All analyses were done according to an intention-to-treat strategy that included all randomly assigned participants, irrespective of adherence. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01394952. FINDINGS: Between Aug 18, 2011, and Aug 14, 2013, we screened 12 133 patients, of whom 9901 with type 2 diabetes and additional cardiovascular risk factors were randomly assigned to either dulaglutide (n=4949) or an equal volume of placebo (n=4952). During a median follow-up of 5·4 years, cerebrovascular and other cardiovascular outcomes were ascertained and adjudicated. 158 (3·2%) of 4949 participants assigned to dulaglutide and 205 (4·1%) of 4952 participants assigned to placebo had a stroke during follow-up (hazard ratio [HR] 0·76, 95% CI 0·62-0·94; p=0·010). Dulaglutide reduced ischaemic stroke (0·75, 0·59-0·94, p=0·012) but had no effect on haemorrhagic stroke (1·05, 0·55-1·99; p=0·89). Dulaglutide also reduced the composite of non-fatal stroke or all-cause death (0·88, 0·79-0·98; p=0·017) and disabling stroke (0·74, 0·56-0·99; p=0·042). The degree of disability after stroke did not differ by treatment group. INTERPRETATION: Long-term dulaglutide use might reduce clinically relevant ischaemic stroke in people with type 2 diabetes but does not affect stroke severity. FUNDING: Eli Lilly and Company.

The utility of a shortened palliative care screening tool to predict death within 12 months - a prospective observational study in two south African hospitals with a high HIV burden.

BACKGROUND: Timely identification of people who are at risk of dying is an important first component of end-of-life care. Clinicians often fail to identify such patients, thus trigger tools have been developed to assist in this process. We aimed to evaluate the performance of a identification tool (based on the Gold Standards Framework Prognostic Indicator Guidance) to predict death at 12 months in a population of hospitalised patients in South Africa. METHODS: Patients admitted to the acute medical services in two public hospitals in Cape Town, South Africa were enrolled in a prospective observational study. Demographic data were collected from patients and patient notes. Patients were assessed within two days of admission by two trained clinicians who were not the primary care givers, using the identification tool. Outcome mortality data were obtained from patient folders, the hospital electronic patient management system and the Western Cape Provincial death registry which links a unique patient identification number with national death certificate records and system wide electronic records. RESULTS: 822 patients (median age of 52 years), admitted with a variety of medical conditions were assessed during their admission. 22% of the cohort were HIV-infected. 218 patients were identified using the screening tool as being in the last year of their lives. Mortality in this group was 56% at 12 months, compared with 7% for those not meeting any criteria. The specific indicator component of the tool performed best in predicting death in both HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected patients, with a sensitivity of 74% (68-81%), specificity of 85% (83-88%), a positive predictive value of 56% (49-63%) and a negative predictive value of 93% (91-95%). The hazard ratio of 12-month mortality for those identified vs not was 11.52 (7.87-16.9, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The identification tool is suitable for use in hospitals in low-middle income country setting that have both a high communicable and non-communicable disease burden amongst young patients, the majority under age 60.

Dulaglutide and renal outcomes in type 2 diabetes: an exploratory analysis of the REWIND randomised, placebo-controlled trial

Background Two glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists reduced renal outcomes in people with type 2 diabetes at risk for cardiovascular disease. We assessed the long-term effect of the GLP-1 receptor agonist dulaglutide on renal outcomes in an exploratory analysis of the REWIND trial of the effect of dulaglutide on cardiovascular disease. Methods REWIND was a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial at 371 sites in 24 countries. Men and women aged at least 50 years with type 2 diabetes who had either a previous cardiovascular event or cardiovascular risk factors were randomly assigned (1:1) to either weekly subcutaneous injection of dulaglutide (1·5 mg) or placebo and followed up at least every 6 months for outcomes. Urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratios (UACRs) and estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFRs) were estimated from urine and serum values measured in local laboratories every 12 months. The primary outcome (first occurrence of the composite endpoint of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, or death from cardiovascular causes), secondary outcomes (including a composite microvascular outcome), and safety outcomes of this trial have been reported elsewhere. In this exploratory analysis, we investigate the renal component of the composite microvascular outcome, defined as the first occurrence of new macroalbuminuria (UACR >33·9 mg/mmol), a sustained decline in eGFR of 30% or more from baseline, or chronic renal replacement therapy. Analyses were by intention to treat. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01394952. Findings Between Aug 18, 2011, and Aug 14, 2013, 9901 participants were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive dulaglutide (n=4949) or placebo (n=4952). At baseline, 791 (7·9%) had macroalbuminuria and mean eGFR was 76·9 mL/min per 1·73 m² (SD 22·7). During a median follow-up of 5·4 years (IQR 5·1­5·9) comprising 51 820 person years, the renal outcome developed in 848 (17·1%) participants at an incidence rate of 3·5 per 100 person-years in the dulaglutide group and in 970 (19·6%) participants at an incidence rate of 4·1 per 100 person-years in the placebo group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·85, 95% CI 0·77­0·93; p=0·0004). The clearest effect was for new macroalbuminuria (HR 0·77, 95% CI 0·68­0·87; p<0·0001), with HRs of 0·89 (0·78­1·01; p=0·066) for sustained decline in eGFR of 30% or more and 0·75 (0·39­1·44; p=0·39) for chronic renal replacement therapy. (AU)

Dulaglutide and cardiovascular outcomes in type 2 diabetes (REWIND): a double-blind, randomised placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Three different glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists reduce cardiovascular outcomes in people with type 2 diabetes at high cardiovascular risk with high glycated haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) concentrations. We assessed the effect of the GLP-1 receptor agonist dulaglutide on major adverse cardiovascular events when added to the existing antihyperglycaemic regimens of individuals with type 2 diabetes with and without previous cardiovascular disease and a wide range of glycaemic control. METHODS: This multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial was done at 371 sites in 24 countries. Men and women aged at least 50 years with type 2 diabetes who had either a previous cardiovascular event or cardiovascular risk factors were randomly assigned (1:1) to either weekly subcutaneous injection of dulaglutide (1·5 mg) or placebo. Randomisation was done by a computer-generated random code with stratification by site. All investigators and participants were masked to treatment assignment. Participants were followed up at least every 6 months for incident cardiovascular and other serious clinical outcomes. The primary outcome was the first occurrence of the composite endpoint of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, or death from cardiovascular causes (including unknown causes), which was assessed in the intention-to-treat population. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01394952. FINDINGS: Between Aug 18, 2011, and Aug 14, 2013, 9901 participants (mean age 66·2 years [SD 6·5], median HbA1c 7·2% [IQR 6·6-8·1], 4589 [46·3%] women) were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive dulaglutide (n=4949) or placebo (n=4952). During a median follow-up of 5·4 years (IQR 5·1-5·9), the primary composite outcome occurred in 594 (12·0%) participants at an incidence rate of 2·4 per 100 person-years in the dulaglutide group and in 663 (13·4%) participants at an incidence rate of 2·7 per 100 person-years in the placebo group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·88, 95% CI 0·79-0·99; p=0·026). All-cause mortality did not differ between groups (536 [10·8%] in the dulaglutide group vs 592 [12·0%] in the placebo group; HR 0·90, 95% CI 0·80-1·01; p=0·067). 2347 (47·4%) participants assigned to dulaglutide reported a gastrointestinal adverse event during follow-up compared with 1687 (34·1%) participants assigned to placebo (p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: Dulaglutide could be considered for the management of glycaemic control in middle-aged and older people with type 2 diabetes with either previous cardiovascular disease or cardiovascular risk factors. FUNDING: Eli Lilly and Company.

Dulaglutide and renal outcomes in type 2 diabetes: an exploratory analysis of the REWIND randomised, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Two glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists reduced renal outcomes in people with type 2 diabetes at risk for cardiovascular disease. We assessed the long-term effect of the GLP-1 receptor agonist dulaglutide on renal outcomes in an exploratory analysis of the REWIND trial of the effect of dulaglutide on cardiovascular disease. METHODS: REWIND was a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial at 371 sites in 24 countries. Men and women aged at least 50 years with type 2 diabetes who had either a previous cardiovascular event or cardiovascular risk factors were randomly assigned (1:1) to either weekly subcutaneous injection of dulaglutide (1·5 mg) or placebo and followed up at least every 6 months for outcomes. Urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratios (UACRs) and estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFRs) were estimated from urine and serum values measured in local laboratories every 12 months. The primary outcome (first occurrence of the composite endpoint of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, or death from cardiovascular causes), secondary outcomes (including a composite microvascular outcome), and safety outcomes of this trial have been reported elsewhere. In this exploratory analysis, we investigate the renal component of the composite microvascular outcome, defined as the first occurrence of new macroalbuminuria (UACR >33·9 mg/mmol), a sustained decline in eGFR of 30% or more from baseline, or chronic renal replacement therapy. Analyses were by intention to treat. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01394952. FINDINGS: Between Aug 18, 2011, and Aug 14, 2013, 9901 participants were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive dulaglutide (n=4949) or placebo (n=4952). At baseline, 791 (7·9%) had macroalbuminuria and mean eGFR was 76·9 mL/min per 1·73 m2 (SD 22·7). During a median follow-up of 5·4 years (IQR 5·1-5·9) comprising 51 820 person-years, the renal outcome developed in 848 (17·1%) participants at an incidence rate of 3·5 per 100 person-years in the dulaglutide group and in 970 (19·6%) participants at an incidence rate of 4·1 per 100 person-years in the placebo group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·85, 95% CI 0·77-0·93; p=0·0004). The clearest effect was for new macroalbuminuria (HR 0·77, 95% CI 0·68-0·87; p<0·0001), with HRs of 0·89 (0·78-1·01; p=0·066) for sustained decline in eGFR of 30% or more and 0·75 (0·39-1·44; p=0·39) for chronic renal replacement therapy. INTERPRETATION: Long-term use of dulaglutide was associated with reduced composite renal outcomes in people with type 2 diabetes. FUNDING: Eli Lilly and Company.

Development and validation of a tool to measure patient experience in chronic disease care.

BACKGROUND:  There is a global increase in the prevalence of non-communicable diseases and a growing understanding that patients need to be involved in their care. Patient experience should be assessed and the information used to improve on the planning and delivery of health services. AIM:  This study described the development and validation of a patient-reported experience measure (PREM) tool which is appropriate for the South African context, to assess self-reported patient experience of chronic care. SETTING:  The study was conducted at four primary health care facilities in the Cape Town Metropole. METHODS:  This was a validity and reliability study with multiple phases to develop and determine the psychometric properties of a novel tool. It consisted of three phases, namely: Phase 1 - Consensus Validity; Phase 2 - Face Validity; Phase 3 - Reliability. Phase 1 consisted of an expert panel reaching consensus on a draft tool. Phase 2a consisted of qualitative semi-structured interviews and cognitive interviews. Phase 3 tested the internal consistency of the tool, the time necessary to complete, as well as floor and ceiling effects with 200 questionnaires. RESULTS:  The process described resulted in a final questionnaire with n = 10 items in three languages that was easily understood by patients. Internal consistency was determined with the overall Cronbach's alpha 0.86. This PREM has been named Chronic Care Assessment of Patient Experience. CONCLUSION:  Using best practice guidance in tool construction and validation, we delivered a PREM with the potential to improve the quality of care from the perspective of patients. Implementation studies are now required to determine how best to use this tool in routine practice.

Design and baseline characteristics of participants in the Researching cardiovascular Events with a Weekly INcretin in Diabetes (REWIND) trial on the cardiovascular effects of dulaglutide.

The aim was to determine the effects of dulaglutide, a synthetic once-weekly, injectable human glucagon-like peptide 1 analogue that lowers blood glucose, body weight, appetite and blood pressure, on cardiovascular outcomes. People with type 2 diabetes, aged ≥50 years, with glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) ≤9.5%, and either a previous cardiovascular event, evidence of cardiovascular disease or ≥2 cardiovascular risk factors were randomly allocated to a weekly subcutaneous injection of either dulaglutide (1.5 mg) or placebo and followed within the ongoing Researching cardiovascular Events with a Weekly INcretin in Diabetes (REWIND) trial every 3 to 6 months. The primary cardiovascular outcome is the first occurrence of the composite of cardiovascular death or non-fatal myocardial infarction or non-fatal stroke. Secondary outcomes include each component of the primary composite cardiovascular outcome, a composite clinical microvascular outcome comprising retinal or renal disease, hospitalization for unstable angina, heart failure requiring hospitalization or an urgent heart failure visit, and all-cause mortality. Follow-up will continue until the accrual of 1200 confirmed primary outcomes. Recruitment of 9901 participants (mean age 66 years, 46% women) occurred in 370 sites located in 24 countries over a period of 2 years. The mean duration of diabetes was 10 years, mean baseline HbA1c was 7.3%, and 31% had prior cardiovascular disease. The REWIND trial's international scope, high proportion of women, high proportion of people without prior cardiovascular disease and inclusion of participants whose mean baseline HbA1c was 7.3% suggests that its cardiovascular and safety findings will be directly relevant to the typical middle-aged patient seen in general practice throughout the world.

Prenatal dexamethasone programs expression of genes in liver and adipose tissue and increased hepatic lipid accumulation but not obesity on a high-fat diet.

The association between low birth weight and cardiovascular disease is amplified by the development of obesity. We explored the effects of postnatal high-fat (HF) feeding in dexamethasone (Dex)-programmed rats, in which prenatal glucocorticoid overexposure is associated with reduced birth weight and adult glucose intolerance. Male Wistar rats exposed to Dex or vehicle (Veh) during the last week of gestation were weaned onto HF or control diets for 6 months. Dex-exposed animals were of lower birth weight and showed catch-up growth by 7 wk. There were no differences in obesity or hyperinsulinaemia between Dex-HF and Veh-HF animals. However, Dex-HF animals had increased hepatic triglyceride content compared with Veh-HF animals. mRNA transcript profiles in adipose tissue revealed depot-specific changes in the expression of genes involved in fatty acid esterification and triglyceride synthesis and storage with prenatal Dex exposure. Thus, antenatal glucocorticoid overexposure in rats does not confer increased sensitivity to HF diet-induced obesity, but increases susceptibility to fatty liver. This may be due to depot-specific-programmed alterations in fat metabolism in adipose tissue.

First case report of pharyngeal cysticercosis.

An 86-year-old woman with pharyngeal cysticercosis presented to Victoria Hospital, Cape Town, South Africa in February 2007 with active neurocysticercosis and subcutaneous tissue involvement. Diagnosis was based on clinical, radiological and histopathological grounds. The patient was successfully managed with surgical excision of the oropharyngeal cyst and subsequent chemotherapy with albendazole. This was a rare case of pharyngeal cysticercosis and illustrates that Taenia solium can invade the upper aerodigestive tract. The occurrence of cysticercosis in pharyngeal tissue adds a new dimension to the manifestation of this disease and should alert to more severe generalised disease.