Predicting mortality among patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia based on admission vital sign indices: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia remains a major public health concern. Vital sign indices-shock index (SI; heart rate [HR]/systolic blood pressure [SBP]), shock index age (SIA, SI × age), MinPulse (MP; maximum HR-HR), Pulse max index (PMI; HR/maximum HR), and blood pressure-age index (BPAI; SBP/age)-are better predictors of mortality in patients with trauma compared to traditional vital signs. We hypothesized that these vital sign indices may serve as predictors of mortality in patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia. This study aimed to describe the association between vital sign indices at admission and COVID-19 pneumonia mortality and to modify the CURB-65 with the best performing vital sign index to establish a new mortality prediction tool. METHODS: This retrospective study was conducted at a tertiary care center in southern Thailand. Adult patients diagnosed with COVID-19 pneumonia were enrolled in this study between January 2020 and July 2022. Patient demographic and clinical data on admission were collected from an electronic database. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve analysis was used to assess the predictive power of the resultant multivariable logistic regression model after univariate and multivariate analyses of variables with identified associations with in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: In total, 251 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia were enrolled in this study. The in-hospital mortality rate was 27.9%. Non-survivors had significantly higher HR, respiratory rate, SIA, and PMI and lower MP and BPAI than survivors. A cutoff value of 51 for SIA (AUC, 0.663; specificity, 80%) was used to predict mortality. When SIA was introduced as a modifier for the CURB-65 score, the new score (the CURSIA score) showed a higher AUC than the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and CURB-65 scores (AUCs: 0.785, 0.780, and 0.774, respectively) without statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: SIA and CURSIA scores were significantly associated with COVID-19 pneumonia mortality. These scores may contribute to better patient triage than traditional vital signs.

Predicting acute respiratory distress syndrome in influenza pneumonia patients using delta mean platelet volume.

BACKGROUND: Patients with influenza pneumonia are at high risk of rapid progression to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Mean platelet volume (MPV), which reflects platelet size, is considered to be a crucial inflammatory marker. The study aim was to investigate the role of delta mean platelet volume (delta MPV) in predicting ARDS in patients with influenza pneumonia. METHODS: This retrospective study was conducted in a tertiary care centre in southern Thailand. Adult patients diagnosed with influenza pneumonia were enrolled from January 2015 to December 2020. Demographic data, laboratory investigations including delta MPV (MPV on day 2 minus MPV on day 1), management records, and clinical outcomes were collected for analysis. The study population was divided into two groups according to the development of ARDS. RESULTS: During the study, 1240 patients with laboratory-confirmed influenza were screened and 212 pneumonia patients were enrolled. Fifty-six patients (26.4%) met the diagnostic criteria for ARDS during hospitalization. Delta MPV was significantly higher in the ARDS group compared to that in the non-ARDS group (1.0 fL vs 0.2 fL, p < 0.001). Multivariable logistic regression revealed that delta MPV is an independent predictor of ARDS (OR 17.37; 95% CI 6.5-46.4; p < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis indicated a cut-off value of 0.7 fL for delta MPV (sensitivity 80.36%, specificity 80.77%) to predict ARDS in patients with influenza pneumonia. CONCLUSIONS: Delta MPV strongly predicts ARDS in influenza pneumonia patients. Implementation of delta MPV may be useful in identifying at-risk patients who will require intensive care and ARDS prevention.