Augmenting progress on the elimination of vertical transmissions of HIV in India: Insights from Spectrum-based HIV burden estimations.

The government of India has adopted the elimination of vertical transmission of HIV as one of the five high-level goals under phase V of the National AIDS and STD Control Programme (NACP). In this paper, we present the data from HIV estimations 2021 for India and select States detailing the progress as well as the attributable causes for vertical transmissions. The NACP spearheads work on mathematical modelling to estimate HIV burden based on the periodically conducted sentinel surveillance for guiding program implementation and policymaking. Using the results of the latest round of HIV Estimations in 2021, we analysed the mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) during the perinatal and postnatal (breastfeeding) period. In 2021, overall, around 5,000 [3,000-7,800] vertical transmissions were estimated nationally with 58% being perinatal infections and remaining during breastfeeding. MTCT at 6 weeks was around 12.95% [9.45-16.02] with the final transmission rate at 24.25% [18.50-29.50]. Overall, 57% of vertical transmissions were among HIV-positive mothers who did not receive ART during pregnancy or breastfeeding, 19% among mothers who dropped off ART during pregnancy or delivery, and 18% among mothers who were infected during pregnancy or breastfeeding. There were significant variations between States. Depending upon the States, the programme needs to focus on the intervention domains of timely engagement in antenatal care-HIV testing-ART initiation as well as programme retention and adherence support. Equally important would be strengthening the strategic information to generate related evidence for inputting India and State-specific parameters improving the MTCT-related modelled estimates.

Diversity in HIV epidemic transitions in India: An application of HIV epidemiological metrices and benchmarks.

BACKGROUND: The Joint United Nations Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS) has emphasized on the incidence-prevalence ratio (IPR) and incidence-mortality ratio (IMR) to measure the progress in HIV epidemic control. In this paper, we describe the status of epidemic control in India and in various states in terms of UNAIDS's recommended metrices. METHOD: The National AIDS Control Programme (NACP) of India spearheads work on mathematical modelling to estimate HIV burden based on periodically conducted sentinel surveillance for providing guidance to program implementation and policymaking. Using the results of the latest round of HIV Estimations in 2019, IPR and IMR were calculated. RESULTS: National level IPR was 0.029 [0.022-0.037] in 2019 and ranged from 0.01 to 0.15 in various States and Union Territories (UTs). Corresponding Incidence-Mortality Ratio was at 0.881 [0.754-1.014] nationally and ranged between 0.20 and 12.90 across the States/UTs. CONCLUSIONS: Based on UNAIDS recommended indicators for HIV epidemic control, namely IPR and IMR; national AIDS response in India appears on track. However, the program success is not uniform and significant heterogeneity as well as expanding epidemic was observed at the level of States or UTs. Reinforcing States/UTs specific and focused HIV prevention, testing and treatment initiatives may help in the attainment of 2030 Sustainable Development Goals of ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030.

District-level HIV estimates using the spectrum model in five states of India, 2017.

ABSTRACT: Decentralized response has been the hallmark of the National AIDS Control Programme in India. District-level HIV burden estimates quantifying the distribution of the epidemics are needed to enhance this decentralized response further to monitor the progress on prevention, testing, and treatment interventions. In this paper, we describe the methodology and results of district-level estimates using the Spectrum model piloted in 5 states of India under National AIDS Control Programme.Using state spectrum model for HIV estimations 2017, we disaggregated state results by the district in pilot states. Each district was considered a subepidemic and HIV epidemic configuration was carried out in its general population as well as in key population. We used HIV surveillance data from antenatal clinics and routine pregnant women testing to model the general population's epidemic curve. We used HIV prevalence data available from HIV sentinel surveillance and integrated biological and behavioral surveys to inform the epidemic curve for key population. Estimation and projection packgage classic platform was used for the curve fitting. District-wide estimates extracted from subpopulation summary in Spectrum results section were used to calculate relative burden for each district and applied to approved State HIV Estimations 2017 estimates.No district in Tamil Nadu had an adult HIV prevalence of higher than 0.5% except for one, and the epidemic seems to be declining. In Maharashtra, the epidemic has shown a decline, with all except 5 districts showing an adult prevalence of less than 0.50%. In Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh, few districts showed rising HIV prevalence. However, none had an adult prevalence of higher than 0.50%. In Mizoram, 6 of 8 districts showed a rising HIV trend with an adult prevalence of 1% or more in 5 districts.Disaggregation of state-level estimates by districts provided insights on epidemic diversity within the analyzed states. It also provided baseline evidence to measure the progress toward the goal of end of AIDS by 2030.