Disability and participation in breast and bowel cancer screening in England: a large prospective study.

BACKGROUND: There is limited information about participation in organised population-wide screening programmes by people with disabilities. METHODS: Data from the National Health Service routine screening programmes in England were linked to information on disability reported by the Million Women Study cohort participants. RESULTS: Of the 473 185 women offered routine breast or bowel cancer screening, 23% reported some disability. Women with disabilities were less likely than other women to participate in breast cancer screening (RR=0.64, 95% CI: 0.62-0.65) and in bowel cancer screening (RR=0.75, 0.73-0.76). Difficulties with self-care or vision were associated with the greatest reduction in screening participation. CONCLUSION: Participation in routine cancer screening programmes in England is reduced in people with disabilities and participation varies by type of disability.

Cancer risk among 21st century blood transfusion recipients.

Background: Some carcinogenic viruses are known to be transmissible by blood transfusion. Intensive viral screening of transfused blood now exists in most countries. In the UK, high-sensitivity nucleic acid amplification tests for hepatitis C virus were introduced in 1999 and it was thought that this would reduce, and possibly eliminate, transfusion-related liver cancer. We aimed to investigate cancer risk in recipients of blood transfusion in 2000 or after. Methods: A total of 1.3 million UK women recruited in 1998 on average were followed for hospital records of blood transfusion and for cancer registrations. After excluding women with cancer or precancerous conditions before or at the time of transfusion, Cox regression yielded adjusted relative risks of 11 site-specific cancers for women with compared to without prior blood transfusion. Results: During follow up, 11 274 (0.9%) women had a first recorded transfusion in 2000 or after, and 1648 (14.6%) of them were subsequently diagnosed with cancer, a mean 6.8 years after the transfusion. In the first 5 years after transfusion there were significant excesses for most site-specific cancers examined, presumably because some had preclinical cancer. However, 5 or more years (mean 8 years) after blood transfusion, there were significant excess risks only for liver cancer (adjusted relative risk = 2.63, 95%CI 1.45-4.78) and for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (adjusted relative risk = 1.74, 1.21-2.51). When analyses were restricted to those undergoing hip or knee replacement surgery, the commonest procedure associated with transfusion, these relative risks were not materially altered. Conclusions: In a large cohort of UK women, transfusions in the 21st century were associated with long-term increased risks of liver cancer and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Some of these malignancies may have been caused by carcinogenic agents that are not currently screened for in transfused blood.

Nationwide bowel cancer screening programme in England: cohort study of lifestyle factors affecting participation and outcomes in women.

BACKGROUND: In 2006, the National Health Service Bowel Cancer Screening Programme in England (NHSBCSP) began offering routine population-based biennial faecal occult blood testing (FOBt) at ages 60-69. There is, however, limited information on how characteristics of individuals affect participation and outcomes of screening, and we studied this association by linking NHSBCSP data to a large prospective cohort of women. METHODS: Electronic linkage of the NHSBCSP and Million Women Study records identified 899 166 women in the study cohort with at least one invitation for screening. NHSBCSP provided information on screening acceptance, FOBt results, screen-detected colorectal cancer and other outcomes. The Million Women Study provided prospectively collected information on personal and lifestyle factors. Multiple regression was used to estimate relative risks (RRs) of factors associated with acceptance and outcomes of screening. RESULTS: Overall, 70% of women (628 976/899 166) accepted their first invitation for bowel cancer screening, of whom 9133 (1.5%) were FOBt-positive, 743 (0.1%) had screen-detected colorectal cancer and 3056 (0.5%) had screen-detected colorectal adenoma. Acceptance was lower in women from the most than the least deprived tertile, in South Asians and in Blacks than in Whites, in current than in never smokers and in obese than in normal weight women: adjusted RRs (95% confidence interval) for acceptance vs not, 0.90 (0.90-0.90); 0.77 (0.75-79); 0.94 (0.92-0.96); 0.78 (0.77-0.78); and 0.88 (0.88-0.89), respectively: P<0.001 for each. These factors were also associated with an increased risk of being FOBt-positive and of having screen-detected adenoma, but were not strongly associated with the risk of screen-detected colorectal cancer. Relative risks for screen-detected adenoma were 1.22 (1.12-1.34), 2.46 (1.75-3.45), 1.61 (1.05-2.48), 1.53 (1.38-1.68) and 1.77 (1.60-1.95), respectively (P<0.001 for all, except for Blacks vs Whites P=0.03). Use of hormone therapy for menopause was associated with reduced risk of screen-detected adenoma, RR ever vs never use, 0.87 (0.81-0.93), P<0.001 and colorectal cancer, 0.78 (0.68-0.91), P=0.001. INTERPRETATION: Among women in England, socioeconomic and lifestyle factors strongly affect participation in routine bowel cancer screening, risk of being FOBt-positive and risk of having screen-detected colorectal adenoma. However, screen-detected colorectal cancer risk is not strongly related to these factors.

Steroid hormone measurements from different types of assays in relation to body mass index and breast cancer risk in postmenopausal women: Reanalysis of eighteen prospective studies.

Epidemiological studies have examined breast cancer risk in relation to sex hormone concentrations measured by different methods: "extraction" immunoassays (with prior purification by organic solvent extraction, with or without column chromatography), "direct" immunoassays (no prior extraction or column chromatography), and more recently with mass spectrometry-based assays. We describe the associations of estradiol, estrone and testosterone with both body mass index and breast cancer risk in postmenopausal women according to assay method, using data from a collaborative pooled analysis of 18 prospective studies. In general, hormone concentrations were highest in studies that used direct assays and lowest in studies that used mass spectrometry-based assays. Estradiol and estrone were strongly positively associated with body mass index, regardless of the assay method; testosterone was positively associated with body mass index for direct assays, but less clearly for extraction assays, and there were few data for mass spectrometry assays. The correlations of estradiol with body mass index, estrone and testosterone were lower for direct assays than for extraction and mass spectrometry assays, suggesting that the estimates from the direct assays were less precise. For breast cancer risk, all three hormones were strongly positively associated with risk regardless of assay method (except for testosterone by mass spectrometry where there were few data), with no statistically significant differences in the trends, but differences may emerge as new data accumulate. Future epidemiological and clinical research studies should continue to use the most accurate assays that are feasible within the design characteristics of each study.

Birth weight and adult cancer incidence: large prospective study and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Most evidence about associations between birth weight and adult cancer risk comes from studies linking birth records to cancer registration data, where information on known risk factors for cancer is generally lacking. Here, we report on associations between birth weight and cause-specific cancer risk in a large cohort of UK women, and investigate how observed associations are affected by other factors. METHODS: A total of 453 023 women, born in the 1930s and 1940s, reported their birth weight, maternal smoking, parental heights, age at menarche, adult height, adult smoking, and many other personal characteristics. They were followed for incident cancer. Using Cox regression, relative risks by birth weight were estimated for cancers with more than 1500 incident cases, adjusting for 17 potential confounding factors, individually and simultaneously. RESULTS: Birth weight reported in adulthood was strongly correlated with that recorded at birth (correlation coefficient = 0.78, P < 0.0001). Reported birth weight was associated with most of the potential confounding factors examined, the strongest association being with adult height. After 9.2 years follow-up per woman, 39 060 incident cancers were registered (4414 colorectal, 3175 lung, 1795 malignant melanoma, 14 542 breast, 2623 endometrial, 2009 ovarian, 1565 non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and 8937 other cancers). Associations with birth weight were null or weak and reduced after adjustment by adult height (P[trend] > 0.01 for every cancer, after adjustment). In contrast, adult height was strongly related to the risk of every cancer except lung cancer, after adjusting for birth weight and other factors (P[trend] < 0.0001 for most cancers). For lung cancer, adjusting for smoking reduced the association with birth weight. Meta-analyses were dominated by our findings. CONCLUSION: Birth weight and adult height are correlated and likely to be markers of some aspect of growth that affects cancer risk in adulthood. However, birth weight adds little, if any, additional information to adult height as a predictor of cancer incidence in women.

Organic food consumption and the incidence of cancer in a large prospective study of women in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Organically produced foods are less likely than conventionally produced foods to contain pesticide residues. METHODS: We examined the hypothesis that eating organic food may reduce the risk of soft tissue sarcoma, breast cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma and other common cancers in a large prospective study of 623 080 middle-aged UK women. Women reported their consumption of organic food and were followed for cancer incidence over the next 9.3 years. Cox regression models were used to estimate adjusted relative risks for cancer incidence by the reported frequency of consumption of organic foods. RESULTS: At baseline, 30%, 63% and 7% of women reported never, sometimes, or usually/always eating organic food, respectively. Consumption of organic food was not associated with a reduction in the incidence of all cancer (n=53 769 cases in total) (RR for usually/always vs never=1.03, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.99-1.07), soft tissue sarcoma (RR=1.37, 95% CI: 0.82-2.27), or breast cancer (RR=1.09, 95% CI: 1.02-1.15), but was associated for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (RR=0.79, 95% CI: 0.65-0.96). CONCLUSIONS: In this large prospective study there was little or no decrease in the incidence of cancer associated with consumption of organic food, except possibly for non-Hodgkin lymphoma.

Sex hormones and risk of breast cancer in premenopausal women: a collaborative reanalysis of individual participant data from seven prospective studies.

BACKGROUND: Associations between circulating concentrations of oestrogens, progesterone, and androgens with breast cancer and related risk factors in premenopausal women are not well understood. We aimed to characterise these associations with a pooled analysis of data from seven studies. METHODS: Individual participant data for prediagnostic sex hormone and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) concentrations were contributed from seven prospective studies. We restricted analyses to women who were premenopausal and younger than 50 years at blood collection, and to women with breast cancer diagnosed before age 50 years. We estimated odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs for breast cancer associated with hormone concentrations by conditional logistic regression in cases and controls matched for age, date of blood collection, and day of cycle, with stratification by study and further adjustment for cycle phase. We examined associations of hormones with risk factors for breast cancer in control women by comparing geometric mean hormone concentrations in categories of these risk factors, adjusted for study, age, phase of menstrual cycle, and body-mass index (BMI). All statistical tests were two-sided. FINDINGS: We included data for up to 767 women with breast cancer and 1699 controls in the risk analyses. Breast cancer risk was associated with a doubling in concentrations of oestradiol (OR 1·19, 95% CI 1·06-1·35), calculated free oestradiol (1·17, 1·03-1·33), oestrone (1·27, 1·05-1·54), androstenedione (1·30, 1·10-1·55), dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate (1·17, 1·04-1·32), testosterone (1·18, 1·03-1·35), and calculated free testosterone (1·08, 0·97-1·21). Breast cancer risk was not associated with luteal phase progesterone (doubling in concentration OR 1·00, 95% CI 0·92-1·09), and adjustment for other factors had little effect on any of these ORs. Cross-sectional analyses in control women showed several associations of sex hormones with breast cancer risk factors. INTERPRETATION: Circulating oestrogens and androgens are positively associated with the risk for breast cancer in premenopausal women.

Persistent effects of women's parity and breastfeeding patterns on their body mass index: results from the Million Women Study.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the long-term effects of women's childbearing patterns on their body mass index. DESIGN: Cross-sectional analysis. SETTING: Population-based study of UK women. PARTICIPANTS: 740 628 postmenopausal participants in the Million Women Study who reported their height, weight, reproductive histories and other relevant factors. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Standardized mean BMI (kg m(-2)) in groups defined by their parity and breastfeeding history. RESULTS: Women were aged 57.5 (s.d. 4) years on average, and had a mean BMI of 26.2 kg m(-2) (s.d. 5); 88% were parous, with 2.1 (s.d. 1.2) children on average. The standardised mean BMI increased progressively with the number of births from 25.6 kg m(-2) (95% confidence interval (CI): 25.5-25.6) in nulliparous women up to 27.2 kg m(-2) (CI: 27.2-27.3) for women with four or more births, a difference of 1.7 kg m(-2) (CI: 1.6-1.7). Among the parous women 70% had ever breastfed and their average total duration of breastfeeding was 7.7 (s.d. 8.8) months. At every parity level the standardised mean BMI was significantly lower among women who had breastfed than those who had not, decreasing by 0.22 kg m(-2) (CI: 0.21-0.22) for every 6 months of breastfeeding, that is, women's mean BMI was 1% lower for every 6 months that they had breastfed. These associations were highly statistically significant (P<0.0001) and independent of the effects of socioeconomic group, region of residence, smoking and physical activity. CONCLUSIONS: Childbearing patterns have a persistent effect on adiposity in this population. The reduction in BMI associated with just 6 months breastfeeding in UK women could importantly reduce their risk of obesity-related disease as they age.

Venous thromboembolism risk in relation to use of different types of postmenopausal hormone therapy in a large prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Current use of menopausal hormone therapy (HT) increases the risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) and the formulations used may affect risk. METHODS: A total of 1,058,259 postmenopausal UK women were followed by record linkage to routinely collected National Health Service hospital admission and death records. HT use and risk of VTE was examined using Cox regression to estimate relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: During 3.3 million years of follow-up, 2200 women had an incident VTE, diagnosed, on average, 1.5 years after last reporting HT use. RRs in current vs. never users at last reporting varied by HT formulation: the risk was significantly greater for oral estrogen-progestin than oral estrogen-only therapy (RR = 2.07 [95%CI, 1.86-2.31] vs. 1.42 [1.21-1.66]), with no increased risk with transdermal estrogen-only therapy (0.82 [0.64-1.06]). Among users of oral estrogen-progestin, the risk from HT varied by progestin type, with significantly greater risks for preparations containing medroxyprogesterone acetate than other progestins (2.67 [2.25-3.17] vs. 1.91 [1.69-2.17]; Pheterogeneity = 0.0007). Current users of oral HT at last reporting had twice the risk of VTE in the first 2 years after starting HT than later (Pheterogeneity = 0.0006). Associations were similar for deep vein thrombosis with and without pulmonary embolism. Over 5 years, 1 in 660 who had never used HT were admitted to hospital for (or died from) pulmonary embolism, compared with 1 in 475 current users of oral estrogen-only HT,1 in 390 users of estrogen-progestin HT containing norethisterone/norgestrel, and 1 in 250 users of estrogen-progestin HT containing medroxyprogesterone acetate. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of VTE varied considerably by HT formulation, being greatest in users of oral estrogen-progestin HT, especially formulations containing medroxyprogesterone acetate.

Alcohol drinking, tobacco smoking and subtypes of haematological malignancy in the UK Million Women Study.

BACKGROUND: Previous research suggests associations of lower alcohol intake and higher tobacco consumption with increased risks of haematological malignancy. The prospective Million Women Study provides sufficient power for reliable estimates of subtype-specific associations in women. METHODS: Approximately 1.3 million middle-aged women were recruited in the United Kingdom during 1996-2001 and followed for death, emigration and cancer registration until 2009 (mean 10.3 years per woman); potential risk factors were assessed by questionnaire. Adjusted relative risks were estimated by Cox regression. RESULTS: During follow-up, 9162 incident cases of haematological malignancy were recorded, including 7047 lymphoid and 2072 myeloid cancers. Among predominantly moderate alcohol drinkers, higher intake was associated with lower risk of lymphoid malignancies, in particular diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (relative risk 0.85 per 10 g alcohol per day (95% confidence interval 0.75-0.96)), follicular lymphoma (0.86 (0.76-0.98)) and plasma cell neoplasms (0.86 (0.77-0.96)). Among never- and current smokers, higher cigarette consumption was associated with increased risk of Hodgkin lymphoma (1.45 per 10 cigarettes per day (1.22-1.72)), mature T-cell malignancies (1.38 (1.10-1.73)) and myeloproliferative/myelodysplastic disease (1.42 (1.31-1.55)). CONCLUSION: These findings confirm and extend existing evidence for associations of subtypes of haematological malignancy with two common exposures in women.

A short-term increase in cancer risk associated with daytime napping is likely to reflect pre-clinical disease: prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Sleep disturbance, a correlate of which is daytime napping, has been hypothesised to be associated with risk of breast and other cancers. METHODS: We estimated relative risks (RR) of breast and other invasive cancers by the reported frequency of daytime napping in a large prospective cohort of middle-aged women in the UK. RESULTS: During an average of 7.4 years of follow-up, 20 058 breast cancers and 31 856 other cancers were diagnosed. Over the first 4 years of follow-up, daytime napping (sometimes/usually vs rarely/never) was associated with slightly increased risks of breast cancer (RR=1.10, 95% CI 1.06-1.15) and of other cancers (RR=1.12, 1.08-1.15), but the RRs decreased significantly with increasing follow-up time (P=0.001 and P=0.01, respectively, for trend). Four or more years after baseline, there was no elevated risk of breast cancer (RR=1.00, 0.96-1.05), and only marginally greater risk of other cancers (RR=1.04, 1.01-1.07). CONCLUSION: The effect of pre-clinical disease is a likely explanation for the short-term increased risk of breast and other cancers associated with daytime napping.

Postmenopausal endometrial cancer risk and body size in early life and middle age: prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Greater adiposity in early life has been linked to increased endometrial cancer risk in later life, but the extent to which this association is mediated through adiposity in later life is unclear. METHODS: Among postmenopausal women who had never used menopausal hormone therapies and reported not having had a hysterectomy, adjusted relative risks (RRs) of endometrial cancer were estimated using Cox regression. RESULTS: Among 249 791 postmenopausal women with 7.3 years of follow-up on average (1.8 million person-years), endometrial cancer risk (n=1410 cases) was strongly associated with current body mass index (BMI) at baseline (RR=1.87 per 5 kg m(-2) increase in BMI, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.77-1.96). Compared with women thinner than average at age 10, the increased risk among women plumper at age 10 (RR=1.27, 95% CI: 1.09-1.49) disappeared after adjustment for current BMI (RR=0.90, 95% CI: 0.77-1.06). Similarly, compared with women with clothes size 12 or less at age 20, the increased risk among women with clothes size 16 or larger (RR=1.87, 95% CI: 1.61-2.18) was not significant after adjustment for current BMI (RR=1.03, 95% CI: 0.88-1.22). CONCLUSION: Among women who have never used hormone therapy for menopause, the association between body size in early life and endometrial cancer risk in postmenopausal women can be largely explained by women's current BMI.

Circulating sex hormones and breast cancer risk factors in postmenopausal women: reanalysis of 13 studies.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer risk for postmenopausal women is positively associated with circulating concentrations of oestrogens and androgens, but the determinants of these hormones are not well understood. METHODS: Cross-sectional analyses of breast cancer risk factors and circulating hormone concentrations in more than 6000 postmenopausal women controls in 13 prospective studies. RESULTS: Concentrations of all hormones were lower in older than younger women, with the largest difference for dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate (DHEAS), whereas sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) was higher in the older women. Androgens were lower in women with bilateral ovariectomy than in naturally postmenopausal women, with the largest difference for free testosterone. All hormones were higher in obese than lean women, with the largest difference for free oestradiol, whereas SHBG was lower in obese women. Smokers of 15+ cigarettes per day had higher levels of all hormones than non-smokers, with the largest difference for testosterone. Drinkers of 20+ g alcohol per day had higher levels of all hormones, but lower SHBG, than non-drinkers, with the largest difference for DHEAS. Hormone concentrations were not strongly related to age at menarche, parity, age at first full-term pregnancy or family history of breast cancer. CONCLUSION: Sex hormone concentrations were strongly associated with several established or suspected risk factors for breast cancer, and may mediate the effects of these factors on breast cancer risk.

Reproductive factors and specific histological types of breast cancer: prospective study and meta-analysis.

Little is known about how reproductive factors affect the risk of breast cancers of different histology. In an analysis of prospective data on 1.2 million middle-aged UK women, we used proportional hazards models to estimate the relative risks of six histological types in relation to menarche, childbearing and menopause. During 8.7 million person-years of follow-up, 17 923 ductal, 3332 lobular, 1062 tubular, 944 mixed ductal lobular, 330 mucinous and 117 medullary cancers were diagnosed. The effect of both age at menarche and age at first birth was greatest for lobular tumours; relative risks per 5-year increase in age at menarche for ductal, lobular, and tubular cancers were 0.93 (0.87-0.99), 0.65 (0.56-0.76), and 0.75 (0.57-0.98), respectively (P-value for heterogeneity=0.0001); and the relative risks per 5-year increase in age at first birth were 1.10 (1.07-1.12), 1.23 (1.17-1.29), and 1.13 (1.03-1.23), respectively (P-value for heterogeneity=0.0006). Increasing parity reduced the risk of each tumour type, except medullary cancers, but the reduction in risk was greater for mucinous cancers than for any other subtype considered (P<0.05 for comparison with each other subtype in turn). The effect of menopause did not vary significantly by tumour histology. Meta-analysis of published results on the effects of age at menarche and age at first birth on ductal and lobular cancers were in keeping with our findings.

Body mass index, serum sex hormones, and breast cancer risk in postmenopausal women.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is associated with increased breast cancer risk among postmenopausal women. We examined whether this association could be explained by the relationship of body mass index (BMI) with serum sex hormone concentrations. METHODS: We analyzed individual data from eight prospective studies of postmenopausal women. Data on BMI and prediagnostic estradiol levels were available for 624 case subjects and 1669 control subjects; data on the other sex hormones were available for fewer subjects. The relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of breast cancer associated with increasing BMI were estimated by conditional logistic regression on case-control sets, matched within each study for age and recruitment date, and adjusted for parity. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: Breast cancer risk increased with increasing BMI (P(trend) =.002), and this increase in RR was substantially reduced by adjustment for serum estrogen concentrations. Adjusting for free estradiol reduced the RR for breast cancer associated with a 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI from 1.19 (95% CI = 1.05 to 1.34) to 1.02 (95% CI = 0.89 to 1.17). The increased risk was also substantially reduced after adjusting for other estrogens (total estradiol, non-sex hormone-binding globulin-bound estradiol, estrone, and estrone sulfate), and moderately reduced after adjusting for sex hormone-binding globulin, whereas adjustment for the androgens (androstenedione, dehydroepiandrosterone, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate, and testosterone) had little effect on the excess risk. CONCLUSION: The results are compatible with the hypothesis that the increase in breast cancer risk with increasing BMI among postmenopausal women is largely the result of the associated increase in estrogens, particularly bioavailable estradiol.

Hormonal and other factors in relation to survival among breast cancer patients.

We have examined the relationship between all-cause mortality and various hormonal and other factors in over 1,200 women with breast cancer recruited into 2 consecutive case-control studies between 1969 and 1984. The age at diagnosis ranged from 24 to 59 years, and the majority (74%) were pre-menopausal at diagnosis. Analyses were based on follow-up to 1 January 1994, by which time 608 (50%) of the women had died. Of the factors examined, weight was most strongly associated with survival, with a significant increase in the risk of death with increasing weight. Two hormonal factors, time since last birth and time since last oral contraceptive use, were also independently associated with survival. All of these associations remained after adjustment for stage and histological nodal status. Our findings provide new evidence to suggest that reproductive factors and exogenous hormones in the form of oral contraceptives may influence survival in women with breast cancer, even after differences in stage and nodal status have been taken into account.

Estimating relative survival among people registered with cancer in England and Wales.

Because routinely collected survival data for cancer patients in England and Wales do not typically specify cause of death, conventional estimates of survival in cancer patients based on such data are a measure of their mortality from all causes rather than their mortality due to cancer. As a result, trends in survival over time are difficult to interpret because changes in overall survival may well reflect changes in the risk of death from other causes, rather than from the cancer of interest. One way of overcoming this problem is to use some form of 'relative survival' defined as a measure of survival corrected for the effect of other independent causes of death. Since this concept was first introduced, various methods for calculating relative survival have been proposed and this had led to some confusion as to the most appropriate choice of estimate. This paper aims to provide an introduction to the concept of relative survival and reviews some of the suggested methods of estimation. In addition, a particularly simple, but robust approach, is highlighted based on expected and observed mortality. This method is illustrated using preliminary data from the Office for National Statistics on cancer survival in patients born after 1939 and diagnosed with cancer during 1972-84. The examples presented, although limited to analyses on a small number of selected sites, highlight some encouraging trends in survival in people aged under 35 diagnosed with leukaemia, Hodgkin's disease and testicular cancer during this period.

Endogenous sex hormones and prostate cancer: a quantitative review of prospective studies.

This paper presents a quantitative review of the data from eight prospective epidemiological studies, comparing mean serum concentrations of sex hormones in men who subsequently developed prostate cancer with those in men who remained cancer free. The hormones reviewed have been postulated to be involved in the aetiology of prostate cancer: androgens and their metabolites testosterone (T), non-SHBG-bound testosterone (non-SHBG-bound T), di-hydrotestosterone (DHT), androstanediol glucuronide (A-diol-g), androstenedione (A-dione), dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate (DHEAS), sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG), the oestrogens, oestrone and oestradiol, luteinizing hormone (LH) and prolactin. The ratio of the mean hormone concentration in prostate cancer cases to that of controls (and its 95% confidence interval (CI)) was calculated for each study, and the results summarized by calculating the weighted average of the log ratios. No differences in the average concentrations of the hormones were found between prostate cancer cases and controls, with the possible exception of A-diol-g which exhibited a 5% higher mean serum concentration among cases relative to controls (ratio 1.05, 95% CI 1.00-1.11), based on 644 cases and 1048 controls. These data suggest that there are no large differences in circulating hormones between men who subsequently go on to develop prostate cancer and those who remain free of the disease. Further research is needed to substantiate the small difference found in A-diol-g concentrations between prostate cancer cases and controls.

Some aspects of measurement error in explanatory variables for continuous and binary regression models.

A simple form of measurement error model for explanatory variables is studied incorporating classical and Berkson cases as particular forms, and allowing for either additive or multiplicative errors. The work is motivated by epidemiological problems, and therefore consideration is given not only to continuous response variables but also to logistic regression models. The possibility that different individuals in a study have errors of different types is also considered. The relatively simple estimation procedures proposed for use with cohort data and case-control data are checked by simulation, under the assumption of various error structures. The results show that even in situations where conventional analysis yields slope estimates that are on average attenuated by a factor of approximately 50 per cent, estimates obtained using the proposed amended likelihood functions are within 5 per cent of their true values. The work was carried out to provide a method for the analysis of lung cancer risk following residential radon exposure, but it should be applicable to a wide variety of situations.

Endogenous estrogen and postmenopausal breast cancer: a quantitative review.

This paper systematically reviews the results from epidemiologic studies investigating the hypothesis that breast cancer risk in postmenopausal women increases with increasing concentrations of estradiol in blood and with increasing urinary estrogen excretion rates. Data from 29 epidemiologic studies of endogenous hormones and postmenopausal breast cancer were used. The ratio of the average estrogen concentration in the women with breast cancer to that in the women without breast cancer (and its 95 percent confidence interval [CI]) was calculated for each study, and the results were summarized by calculating weighted averages of the log ratios. In six prospective studies of serum estradiol concentration, 329 women who subsequently developed breast cancer had, overall, a 15 percent (CI = 6-24 percent, P = 0.0003) higher mean concentration of estradiol in their blood than the 1,105 women who remained free of cancer. The results of these prospective studies did not differ significantly from each other (chi2 for heterogeneity = 8.7; degrees of freedom = 5; P > 0.1). Similar differences in mean estrogen levels were seen in the case-control studies which reported either estradiol concentrations in the blood or urinary estrogen excretion. However, the case-control studies showed significant heterogeneity among their results. The data from the prospective studies strongly suggest that breast cancer risk in postmenopausal women is associated with relatively high concentrations of endogenous estradiol.