BMI and breast cancer risk around age at menopause.

BACKGROUND: A high body mass index (BMI, kg/m2) is associated with decreased risk of breast cancer before menopause, but increased risk after menopause. Exactly when this reversal occurs in relation to menopause is unclear. Locating that change point could provide insight into the role of adiposity in breast cancer etiology. METHODS: We examined the association between BMI and breast cancer risk in the Premenopausal Breast Cancer Collaborative Group, from age 45 up to breast cancer diagnosis, loss to follow-up, death, or age 55, whichever came first. Analyses included 609,880 women in 16 prospective studies, including 9956 who developed breast cancer before age 55. We fitted three BMI hazard ratio (HR) models over age-time: constant, linear, or nonlinear (via splines), applying piecewise exponential additive mixed models, with age as the primary time scale. We divided person-time into four strata: premenopause; postmenopause due to natural menopause; postmenopause because of interventional loss of ovarian function (bilateral oophorectomy (BO) or chemotherapy); postmenopause due to hysterectomy without BO. Sensitivity analyses included stratifying by BMI in young adulthood, or excluding women using menopausal hormone therapy. RESULTS: The constant BMI HR model provided the best fit for all four menopausal status groups. Under this model, the estimated association between a five-unit increment in BMI and breast cancer risk was HR=0.87 (95% CI: 0.85, 0.89) before menopause, HR=1.00 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.04) after natural menopause, HR=0.99 (95% CI: 0.93, 1.05) after interventional loss of ovarian function, and HR=0.88 (95% CI: 0.76, 1.02) after hysterectomy without BO. CONCLUSION: The BMI breast cancer HRs remained less than or near one during the 45-55 year age range indicating that the transition to a positive association between BMI and risk occurs after age 55.

Links between the genetic determinants of morning plasma cortisol and body shape: a two-sample Mendelian randomisation study.

High cortisol production in Cushing's syndrome leads to fat centralisation. The influence of modest cortisol variations on body shape, however, is less clear. We examined potentially causal associations between morning plasma cortisol and body shape and obesity with inverse-variance weighted random-effects models in a two-sample Mendelian randomisation analysis. We used publicly available summary statistics from the CORtisol NETwork (CORNET) consortium, UK Biobank, and the Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits (GIANT) consortium. Only in women, morning plasma cortisol (proxied by ten genetic polymorphisms) was associated positively with waist size reflected in waist-to-hip index (WHI, 0.035 standard deviation (SD) units change per one SD cortisol increase; 95% confidence interval (0.002-0.067); p = 0.036) and "a body shape index" (ABSI; 0.039 (0.006-0.071); p = 0.021). There was no evidence for associations with hip index (HI) or body mass index (BMI). Among individual polymorphisms, rs7450600 stood out (chromosome 6; Long Intergenic Non-Protein-Coding RNA 473 gene, LINC00473). Morning plasma cortisol proxied by rs7450600 was associated positively with WHI and inversely with HI and BMI in women and men. Our findings support a causal association of higher morning plasma cortisol with larger waist size in women and highlight LINC00473 as a genetic link between morning plasma cortisol and body shape.

Lifestyle changes in middle age and risk of cancer: evidence from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

In this study, we aimed to provide novel evidence on the impact of changing lifestyle habits on cancer risk. In the EPIC cohort, 295,865 middle-aged participants returned a lifestyle questionnaire at baseline and during follow-up. At both timepoints, we calculated a healthy lifestyle index (HLI) score based on cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption, body mass index and physical activity. HLI ranged from 0 (most unfavourable) to 16 (most favourable). We estimated the association between HLI change and risk of lifestyle-related cancers-including cancer of the breast, lung, colorectum, stomach, liver, cervix, oesophagus, bladder, and others-using Cox regression models. We reported hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Median time between the two questionnaires was 5.7 years, median age at follow-up questionnaire was 59 years. After the follow-up questionnaire, we observed 14,933 lifestyle-related cancers over a median follow-up of 7.8 years. Each unit increase in the HLI score was associated with 4% lower risk of lifestyle-related cancers (HR 0.96; 95%CI 0.95-0.97). Among participants in the top HLI third at baseline (HLI > 11), those in the bottom third at follow-up (HLI ≤ 9) had 21% higher risk of lifestyle-related cancers (HR 1.21; 95%CI 1.07-1.37) than those remaining in the top third. Among participants in the bottom HLI third at baseline, those in the top third at follow-up had 25% lower risk of lifestyle-related cancers (HR 0.75; 95%CI 0.65-0.86) than those remaining in the bottom third. These results indicate that lifestyle changes in middle age may have a significant impact on cancer risk.

Interactions of obesity, body shape, diabetes and sex steroids with respect to prostate cancer risk in the UK Biobank cohort.

BACKGROUND: Obesity and diabetes are associated inversely with low-grade prostate cancer risk and affect steroid hormone synthesis but whether they modify each other's impact on prostate cancer risk remains unknown. METHODS: We examined the independent associations of diabetes, body mass index (BMI), 'a body shape index' (ABSI), hip index (HI), circulating testosterone, sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) (per one standard deviation increase) and oestradiol ≥175 pmol/L with total prostate cancer risk using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models for UK Biobank men. We evaluated multiplicative interactions (pMI ) and additive interactions (relative excess risk from interaction (pRERI ), attributable proportion (pAR ), synergy index (pSI )) with obese (BMI ≥30 kg/m2 ) and diabetes. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 10.3 years, 9417 incident prostate cancers were diagnosed in 195,813 men. Diabetes and BMI were associated more strongly inversely with prostate cancer risk when occurring together (pMI = 0.0003, pRERI = 0.032, pAP = 0.020, pSI = 0.002). ABSI was associated positively in obese men (HR = 1.081; 95% CI = 1.030-1.135) and men with diabetes (HR = 1.114; 95% CI = 1.021-1.216). The inverse associations with obesity and diabetes were attenuated for high-ABSI ≥79.8 (pMI = 0.022, pRERI = 0.008, pAP = 0.005, pSI <0.0001 obesity; pMI = 0.017, pRERI = 0.047, pAP = 0.025, pSI = 0.0005 diabetes). HI was associated inversely in men overall (HR = 0.967; 95% CI = 0.947-0.988). Free testosterone (FT) was associated most strongly positively in normal weight men (HR = 1.098; 95% CI = 1.045-1.153) and men with diabetes (HR = 1.189; 95% CI = 1.081-1.308). Oestradiol was associated inversely in obese men (HR = 0.805; 95% CI = 0.682-0.951). The inverse association with obesity was stronger for high-FT ≥243 pmol/L (pRERI = 0.040, pAP = 0.031, pSI = 0.002) and high-oestradiol (pRERI = 0.030, pAP = 0.012, pSI <0.0001). The inverse association with diabetes was attenuated for high-FT (pMI = 0.008, pRERI = 0.015, pAP = 0.009, pSI = 0.0006). SHBG was associated inversely in men overall (HR = 0.918; 95% CI = 0.895-0.941), more strongly for high-HI ≥49.1 (pMI = 0.024). CONCLUSIONS: Obesity and diabetes showed synergistic inverse associations with prostate cancer risk, likely involving testosterone reduction for diabetes and oestrogen generation for obesity, which were attenuated for high-ABSI. HI and SHBG showed synergistic inverse associations with prostate cancer risk.

Interactions of platelets with obesity in relation to lung cancer risk in the UK Biobank cohort.

BACKGROUND: Platelet count (PLT) is associated positively with lung cancer risk but has a more complex association with body mass index (BMI), positive only in women (mainly never smokers) and inverse in men (mainly ever smokers), raising the question whether platelets interact with obesity in relation to lung cancer risk. Prospective associations of platelet size (an index of platelet maturity and activity) with lung cancer risk are unclear. METHODS: We examined the associations of PLT, mean platelet volume (MPV), and platelet distribution width (PDW) (each individually, per one standard deviation increase) with lung cancer risk in UK Biobank men and women using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for BMI and covariates. We calculated Relative Excess Risk from Interaction (RERI) with obese (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2), dichotomising platelet parameters at ≥ median (sex-specific), and multiplicative interactions with BMI (continuous scale). We examined heterogeneity according to smoking status (never, former, current smoker) and antiaggregant/anticoagulant use (no/yes). RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 10.4 years, 1620 lung cancers were ascertained in 192,355 men and 1495 lung cancers in 218,761 women. PLT was associated positively with lung cancer risk in men (hazard ratio HR = 1.14; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09-1.20) and women (HR = 1.09; 95%CI: 1.03-1.15) but interacted inversely with BMI only in men (RERI = - 0.53; 95%CI: - 0.80 to - 0.26 for high-PLT-obese; HR = 0.92; 95%CI = 0.88-0.96 for PLT*BMI). Only in men, MPV was associated inversely with lung cancer risk (HR = 0.95; 95%CI: 0.90-0.99) and interacted positively with BMI (RERI = 0.27; 95%CI = 0.09-0.45 for high-MPV-obese; HR = 1.08; 95%CI = 1.04-1.13 for MPV*BMI), while PDW was associated positively (HR = 1.05; 95%CI: 1.00-1.10), with no evidence for interactions. The associations with PLT were consistent by smoking status, but MPV was associated inversely only in current smokers and PDW positively only in never/former smokers. The interactions with BMI were retained for at least eight years of follow-up and were consistent by smoking status but were attenuated in antiaggregant/anticoagulant users. CONCLUSIONS: In men, PLT was associated positively and MPV inversely with lung cancer risk and these associations appeared hindered by obesity. In women, only PLT was associated positively, with little evidence for interaction with obesity.

Associations of obesity and body shape with erythrocyte and reticulocyte parameters in the UK Biobank cohort.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic low-grade inflammation. Although chronic inflammatory conditions and diabetes are associated with anaemia, less is known about associations of obesity and body shape, independent of each other, with erythrocyte and reticulocyte parameters. METHODS: We investigated the associations of body mass index (BMI) and the allometric body shape index (ABSI) and hip index (HI), which are uncorrelated with BMI, with erythrocyte and reticulocyte parameters (all continuous, on a standard deviation (SD) scale) in UK Biobank participants without known metabolic, endocrine, or major inflammatory conditions (glycated haemoglobin HbA1c < 48 mmol/mol, C-reactive protein CRP < 10 mg/L). We examined erythrocyte count, total reticulocyte count and percent, immature reticulocyte count and fraction (IRF), haemoglobin, haematocrit, mean corpuscular haemoglobin mass (MCH) and concentration (MCHC), mean corpuscular and reticulocyte volumes (MCV, MRV), and red cell distribution width (RDW) in multivariable linear regression models. We additionally defined body shape phenotypes with dichotomised ABSI (≥ 73 women; ≥ 80 men) and HI (≥ 64 women; ≥ 49 men), including "pear" (small-ABSI-large-HI) and "apple" (large-ABSI-small-HI), and examined these in groups according to BMI (18.5-25 normal weight; 25-30 overweight; 30-45 kg/m2 obese). RESULTS: In 105,853 women and 100,854 men, BMI and ABSI were associated positively with haemoglobin, haematocrit, and erythrocyte count, and more strongly with total reticulocyte count and percent, immature reticulocyte count and IRF. HI was associated inversely with all, but least with IRF. Associations were comparable in women and men. In groups according to obesity and body shape, erythrocyte count was ~ 0.6 SD higher for obese-"apple" compared to normal-weight-"pear" phenotype (SD = 0.31*1012/L women, SD = 0.34*1012/L men), total reticulocyte count was ~ 1.1 SD higher (SD = 21.1*109/L women, SD = 23.6*109/L men), immature reticulocyte count was ~ 1.2 SD higher (SD = 7.9*109/L women, SD = 8.8*109/L men), total reticulocyte percent was ~ 1.0 SD higher (SD = 0.48% women and men), and IFR was over 0.7 SD higher (SD = 5.7% women and men). BMI but not ABSI or HI was associated more weakly inversely with MCV, MRV, and MCH, but positively with MCHC in men and RDW in women. CONCLUSIONS: In obesity uncomplicated with diabetes, larger BMI and ABSI are associated with increased erythropoiesis and reticulocyte immaturity.

Dementia risk in patients with type 2 diabetes: Comparing metformin with no pharmacological treatment.

INTRODUCTION: Metformin has been suggested as a therapeutic agent for dementia, but the relevant evidence has been partial and inconsistent. METHODS: We established a national cohort of 210,237 type 2 diabetes patients in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Risks of incident dementia were compared between metformin initiators and those who were not prescribed any anti-diabetes medication during follow-up. RESULTS: Compared with metformin initiators (n = 114,628), patients who received no anti-diabetes medication (n = 95,609) had lower HbA1c and better cardiovascular health at baseline. Both Cox regression and propensity score weighting analysis showed metformin initiators had lower risk of dementia compared to those non-users (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.88 [95% confidence interval: 0.84-0.92] and 0.90 [0.84-0.96]). Patients on long-term metformin treatment had an even lower risk of dementia. DISCUSSION: Metformin may act beyond its glycemic effect and reduce dementia risk to an even lower level than that of patients with milder diabetes and better health profiles. HIGHLIGHTS: Metformin initiators had a significantly lower risk of dementia compared with patients not receiving anti-diabetes medication. Compared with metformin initiators, diabetes patients not receiving pharmacological treatment had better glycemic profiles at baseline and during follow-up. Patients on long-term metformin treatment had an even lower risk of subsequent dementia incidence. Metformin may act beyond its effect on hyperglycemia and has the potential of being repurposed for dementia prevention.

Investigating causal relationships between obesity and skin barrier function in a multi-ethnic Asian general population cohort.

BACKGROUND: Skin diseases impact significantly on the quality of life and psychology of patients. Obesity has been observed as a risk factor for skin diseases. Skin epidermal barrier dysfunctions are typical manifestations across several dermatological disturbances. OBJECTIVES: We aim to establish the association between obesity and skin physiology measurements and investigate whether obesity may play a possible causal role on skin barrier dysfunction. METHODS: We investigated the relationship of obesity with skin physiology measurements, namely transepidermal water loss (TEWL), skin surface moisture and skin pH in an Asian population cohort (n = 9990). To assess for a possible causal association between body mass index (BMI) and skin physiology measurements, we performed Mendelian Randomization (MR), along with subsequent additional analyses to assess the potential causal impact of known socioeconomic and comorbidities of obesity on TEWL. RESULTS: Every 1 kg/m2 increase in BMI was associated with a 0.221% (95%CI: 0.144-0.298) increase in TEWL (P = 2.82E-08), a 0.336% (95%CI: 0.148-0.524) decrease in skin moisture (P = 4.66E-04) and a 0.184% (95%CI: 0.144-0.224) decrease in pH (P = 1.36E-19), adjusting for age, gender, and ethnicity. Relationships for both TEWL and pH with BMI remained strong (Beta 0.354; 95%CI: 0.189-0.520 and Beta -0.170; 95%CI: -0.253 to -0.087, respectively) even after adjusting for known confounders, with MR experiments further supporting BMI's possible causal relationship with TEWL. Based on additional MR performed, none of the socioeconomic and comorbidities of obesity investigated are likely to have possible causal relationships with TEWL. CONCLUSION: We establish strong association of BMI with TEWL and skin pH, with MR results suggestive of a possible causal relationship of obesity with TEWL. It emphasizes the potential impact of obesity on skin barrier function and therefore opportunity for primary prevention.

Lipopolysaccharide-binding protein and future Parkinson's disease risk: a European prospective cohort.

INTRODUCTION: Lipopolysaccharide (LPS) is the outer membrane component of Gram-negative bacteria. LPS-binding protein (LBP) is an acute-phase reactant that mediates immune responses triggered by LPS and has been used as a blood marker for LPS. LBP has recently been indicated to be associated with Parkinson's disease (PD) in small-scale retrospective case-control studies. We aimed to investigate the association between LBP blood levels with PD risk in a nested case-control study within a large European prospective cohort. METHODS: A total of 352 incident PD cases (55% males) were identified and one control per case was selected, matched by age at recruitment, sex and study center. LBP levels in plasma collected at recruitment, which was on average 7.8 years before diagnosis of the cases, were analyzed by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated for one unit increase of the natural log of LBP levels and PD incidence by conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: Plasma LBP levels were higher in prospective PD cases compared to controls (median (interquartile range) 26.9 (18.1-41.0) vs. 24.7 (16.6-38.4) µg/ml). The OR for PD incidence per one unit increase of log LBP was elevated (1.46, 95% CI 0.98-2.19). This association was more pronounced among women (OR 2.68, 95% CI 1.40-5.13) and overweight/obese subjects (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.09-2.18). CONCLUSION: The findings suggest that higher plasma LBP levels may be associated with an increased risk of PD and may thus pinpoint to a potential role of endotoxemia in the pathogenesis of PD, particularly in women and overweight/obese individuals.

Circulating hormones and risk of gastric cancer by subsite in three cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Obesity has been positively associated with gastric cancer. Excess fat impacts hormones, which have been implicated in carcinogenesis. We investigated obesity-related hormones and cardia gastric cancer (CGC) and non-cardia gastric cancer (NCGC) risk. METHODS: Nested case-control studies were conducted within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort (61 CGCs, and 172 NCGCs and matched controls) and the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention (ATBC) study (100 CGCs and 65 NCGCs and matched controls); serum hormones were measured. In UK-Biobank (n = 458,713), we included 137 CGCs and 92 NCGCs. Sex-specific analyses were conducted. For EPIC and ATBC, odds ratios (ORs), and for UK-Biobank hazard ratios (HRs), were estimated using conditional logistic regression and Cox regression, respectively. RESULTS: Insulin-like growth-factor-1 was positively associated with CGC and NCGC in EPIC men (ORper 1-SD increase 1.94, 95% CI 1.03-3.63; ORper 1-SD increase 1.63, 95% CI 1.05-2.53, respectively), with similar findings for CGC in UK-Biobank women (HRper 1-SD increase 1.76, 95% CI 1.08-2.88). Leptin in EPIC men and C-peptide in EPIC women were positively associated with NCGC (ORT3 vs. T1 2.72, 95% CI 1.01-7.34 and ORper 1-SD increase 2.17, 95% CI 1.19-3.97, respectively). Sex hormone-binding globulin was positively associated with CGC in UK-Biobank men (HRper 1-SD increase 1.29, 95% CI 1.02-1.64). Conversely, ghrelin was inversely associated with NCGC among EPIC and ATBC men (ORper 1-SD increase 0.53, 95% CI 0.34-0.84; ORper 1-SD increase 0.22, 95% CI 0.10-0.50, respectively). In addition, dehydroepiandrosterone was inversely associated with CGC in EPIC and ATBC men combined. CONCLUSIONS: Some obesity-related hormones influence CGC and NCGC risk.

Reproductive and hormonal factors and risk of renal cell carcinoma among women in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

BACKGROUND: Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) is twice as common among men compared with women, and hormonal factors have been suggested to partially explain this difference. There is currently little evidence on the roles of reproductive and hormonal risk factors in RCC aetiology. MATERIALS & METHODS: We investigated associations of age at menarche and age at menopause, pregnancy-related factors, hysterectomy and ovariectomy and exogenous hormone use with RCC risk among 298,042 women in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. RESULTS: During 15 years of follow-up, 438 RCC cases were identified. Parous women had higher rates of RCC compared with nulliparous women (HR = 1.71, 95% CI 1.18, 2.46), and women who were older at age of first pregnancy had lower rates of RCC (30 years + vs. <20 years HR = 0.53, 95% CI 0.34, 0.82). Additionally, we identified a positive association for hysterectomy (HR = 1.43 95% CI 1.09, 1.86) and bilateral ovariectomy (HR = 1.67, 95% CI 1.13, 2.47), but not unilateral ovariectomy (HR = 0.99, 95% CI 0.61, 1.62) with RCC risk. No clear associations were found for age at menarche, age at menopause or exogenous hormone use. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that parity and reproductive organ surgeries may play a role in RCC aetiology.

Diet and lifestyle in relation to small intestinal cancer risk: findings from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC).

PURPOSE: The incidence of small intestinal cancer (SIC) is increasing, however, its aetiology remains unclear due to a lack of data from large-scale prospective cohorts. We examined modifiable risk factors in relation to SIC overall and by histological subtype. METHODS: We analysed 450,107 participants enrolled in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate univariable and multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: During an average of 14.1 years of follow-up, 160 incident SICs (62 carcinoids, 51 adenocarcinomas) were identified. Whilst univariable models revealed a positive association for current versus never smokers and SIC (HR, 95% CI: 1.77, 1.21-2.60), this association attenuated in multivariable models. In energy-adjusted models, there was an inverse association across vegetable intake tertiles for SIC overall (HRT3vsT1, 95% CI: 0.48, 0.32-0.71, p-trend: < 0.001) and for carcinoids (HRT3vsT1, 95% CI: 0.44, 0.24-0.82, p-trend: 0.01); however, these attenuated in multivariable models. Total fat was also inversely associated with total SIC and both subtypes but only in the second tertile (SIC univariable HRT2vsT1, 95% CI: 0.57, 0.38-0.84; SIC multivariable HRT2vsT1, 95% CI: 0.55, 0.37-0.81). Physical activity, intake of alcohol, red or processed meat, dairy products, or fibre were not associated with SIC. CONCLUSION: These exploratory analyses found limited evidence for a role of modifiable risk factors in SIC aetiology. However, sample size was limited, particularly for histologic subtypes; therefore, larger studies are needed to delineate these associations and robustly identify risk factors for SIC.

A body shape index (ABSI) is associated inversely with post-menopausal progesterone-receptor-negative breast cancer risk in a large European cohort.

BACKGROUND: Associations of body shape with breast cancer risk, independent of body size, are unclear because waist and hip circumferences are correlated strongly positively with body mass index (BMI). METHODS: We evaluated body shape with the allometric "a body shape index" (ABSI) and hip index (HI), which compare waist and hip circumferences, correspondingly, among individuals with the same weight and height. We examined associations of ABSI, HI, and BMI (per one standard deviation increment) with breast cancer overall, and according to menopausal status at baseline, age at diagnosis, and oestrogen and progesterone receptor status (ER+/-PR+/-) in multivariable Cox proportional hazards models using data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 14.0 years, 9011 incident breast cancers were diagnosed among 218,276 women. Although there was little evidence for association of ABSI with breast cancer overall (hazard ratio HR = 0.984; 95% confidence interval: 0.961-1.007), we found borderline inverse associations for post-menopausal women (HR = 0.971; 0.942-1.000; n = 5268 cases) and breast cancers diagnosed at age ≥ 55 years (HR = 0.976; 0.951-1.002; n = 7043) and clear inverse associations for ER + PR- subtypes (HR = 0.894; 0.822-0.971; n = 726) and ER-PR- subtypes (HR = 0.906; 0.835-0.983 n = 759). There were no material associations with HI. BMI was associated strongly positively with breast cancer overall (HR = 1.074; 1.049-1.098), for post-menopausal women (HR = 1.117; 1.085-1.150), for cancers diagnosed at age ≥ 55 years (HR = 1.104; 1.076-1.132), and for ER + PR + subtypes (HR = 1.122; 1.080-1.165; n = 3101), but not for PR- subtypes. CONCLUSIONS: In the EPIC cohort, abdominal obesity evaluated with ABSI was not associated with breast cancer risk overall but was associated inversely with the risk of post-menopausal PR- breast cancer. Our findings require validation in other cohorts and with a larger number of PR- breast cancer cases.

A nutritional biomarker score of the Mediterranean diet and incident type 2 diabetes: Integrated analysis of data from the MedLey randomised controlled trial and the EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Self-reported adherence to the Mediterranean diet has been modestly inversely associated with incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in cohort studies. There is uncertainty about the validity and magnitude of this association due to subjective reporting of diet. The association has not been evaluated using an objectively measured biomarker of the Mediterranean diet. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We derived a biomarker score based on 5 circulating carotenoids and 24 fatty acids that discriminated between the Mediterranean or habitual diet arms of a parallel design, 6-month partial-feeding randomised controlled trial (RCT) conducted between 2013 and 2014, the MedLey trial (128 participants out of 166 randomised). We applied this biomarker score in an observational study, the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study, to assess the association of the score with T2D incidence over an average of 9.7 years of follow-up since the baseline (1991 to 1998). We included 22,202 participants, of whom 9,453 were T2D cases, with relevant biomarkers from an original case-cohort of 27,779 participants sampled from a cohort of 340,234 people. As a secondary measure of the Mediterranean diet, we used a score estimated from dietary-self report. Within the trial, the biomarker score discriminated well between the 2 arms; the cross-validated C-statistic was 0.88 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82 to 0.94). The score was inversely associated with incident T2D in EPIC-InterAct: the hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation of the score was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.65 to 0.77) following adjustment for sociodemographic, lifestyle and medical factors, and adiposity. In comparison, the HR per standard deviation of the self-reported Mediterranean diet was 0.90 (95% CI: 0.86 to 0.95). Assuming the score was causally associated with T2D, higher adherence to the Mediterranean diet in Western European adults by 10 percentiles of the score was estimated to reduce the incidence of T2D by 11% (95% CI: 7% to 14%). The study limitations included potential measurement error in nutritional biomarkers, unclear specificity of the biomarker score to the Mediterranean diet, and possible residual confounding. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that objectively assessed adherence to the Mediterranean diet is associated with lower risk of T2D and that even modestly higher adherence may have the potential to reduce the population burden of T2D meaningfully. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) ACTRN12613000602729 https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=363860.

The association between body fatness and mortality among breast cancer survivors: results from a prospective cohort study.

Evidence linking body fatness to breast cancer (BC) prognosis is limited. While it seems that excess adiposity is associated with poorer BC survival, there is uncertainty over whether weight changes reduce mortality. This study aimed to assess the association between body fatness and weight changes pre- and postdiagnosis and overall mortality and BC-specific mortality among BC survivors. Our study included 13,624 BC survivors from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, with a mean follow-up of 8.6 years after diagnosis. Anthropometric data were obtained at recruitment for all cases and at a second assessment during follow-up for a subsample. We measured general obesity using the body mass index (BMI), whereas waist circumference and A Body Shape Index were used as measures of abdominal obesity. The annual weight change was calculated for cases with two weight assessments. The association with overall mortality and BC-specific mortality were based on a multivariable Cox and Fine and Gray models, respectively. We performed Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to investigate the potential causal association. Five-unit higher BMI prediagnosis was associated with a 10% (95% confidence interval: 5-15%) increase in overall mortality and 7% (0-15%) increase in dying from BC. Women with abdominal obesity demonstrated a 23% (11-37%) increase in overall mortality, independent of the association of BMI. Results related to weight change postdiagnosis suggested a U-shaped relationship with BC-specific mortality, with higher risk associated with losing weight or gaining > 2% of the weight annually. MR analyses were consistent with the identified associations. Our results support the detrimental association of excess body fatness on the survival of women with BC. Substantial weight changes postdiagnosis may be associated with poorer survival.