The impact of the European Union emissions trading system on carbon dioxide emissions: a matrix completion analysis.

Despite the negative externalities on the environment and human health, today's economies still produce excessive carbon dioxide emissions. As a result, governments are trying to shift production and consumption to more sustainable models that reduce the environmental impact of carbon dioxide emissions. The European Union, in particular, has implemented an innovative policy to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by creating a market for emission rights, the emissions trading system. The objective of this paper is to perform a counterfactual analysis to measure the impact of the emissions trading system on the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions. For this purpose, a recently-developed statistical machine learning method called matrix completion with fixed effects estimation is used and compared to traditional econometric techniques. We apply matrix completion with fixed effects estimation to the prediction of missing counterfactual entries of a carbon dioxide emissions matrix whose elements (indexed row-wise by country and column-wise by year) represent emissions without the emissions trading system for country-year pairs. The results obtained, confirmed by robust diagnostic tests, show a significant effect of the emissions trading system on the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions: the majority of European Union countries included in our analysis reduced their total carbon dioxide emissions (associated with selected industries) by about 15.4% during the emissions trading system treatment period 2005-2020, compared to the total carbon dioxide emissions (associated with the same industries) that would have been achieved in the absence of the emissions trading system policy. Finally, several managerial/practical implications of the study are discussed, together with its possible extensions.

Predicted Expenditure for Prescription Drugs for Multiple Sclerosis in the Italian Market Between 2023 and 2028: Results of the Oracle Project.

INTRODUCTION: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic neurodegenerative disease that leads to impaired cognitive function and accumulation of disability, with significant socioeconomic burden. Serious unmet need in the context of managing MS has given rise to ongoing research efforts, leading to the launch of new drugs planned for the near future, and subsequent concerns about the sustainability of healthcare systems. This study assessed the changes in the Italian MS market and their impact on the expenditures of the Italian National Healthcare Service between 2023 and 2028. METHODS: A horizon-scanning model was developed to estimate annual expenditure from 2023 to 2028. Annual expenditure for MS was calculated by combining the number of patients treated with each product (clinical inputs) and the yearly costs of therapy (economic inputs). Baseline inputs (2020-2022) were collected from IQVIA® real-world data, while input estimation for the 5-year forecast was integrated with analog analyses and the insights of clinicians and former payers. RESULTS: The number of equivalent patients treated in 2028 in Italy was estimated at around 67,000, with an increase of 10% versus 2022. In terms of treatment pattern evolution, first-line treatments are expected to reduce their shares from 47% in 2022 to 27% in 2028, and Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitors are expected to reach 23% of patient shares. Overall, expenditure for MS is estimated to decrease from €721 million in 2022 to €551 million in 2028, mainly due to losses of exclusivity and renegotiation of drug prices. CONCLUSION: Despite the increase in the number of patients treated for MS and the launch of new molecules that will reach high market penetration, the model confirmed sustainability for the Italian National Healthcare Service.

The emergence of social soft skill needs in the post COVID-19 era.

Social soft skills are crucial for workers to perform their tasks, yet it is hard to train people on them and to readapt their skill set when needed. In the present work, we analyze the possible effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on social soft skills in the context of Italian occupations related to 88 economic sectors and 14 age groups. We leverage detailed information coming from ICP (i.e. the Italian equivalent of O*Net), provided by the Italian National Institute for the Analysis of Public Policy, from the microdata for research on the continuous detection of labor force, provided by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), and from ISTAT data on the Italian population. Based on these data, we simulate the impact of COVID-19 on workplace characteristics and working styles that were more severely affected by the lockdown measures and the sanitary dispositions during the pandemic (e.g. physical proximity, face-to-face discussions, working remotely). We then apply matrix completion-a machine-learning technique often used in the context of recommender systems-to predict the average variation in the social soft skills importance levels required for each occupation when working conditions change, as some changes might be persistent in the near future. Professions, sectors, and age groups showing negative average variations are exposed to a deficit in their social soft-skills endowment, which might ultimately lead to lower productivity.

Predicting choice behaviour in economic games using gaze data encoded as scanpath images.

Eye movement data has been extensively utilized by researchers interested in studying decision-making within the strategic setting of economic games. In this paper, we demonstrate that both deep learning and support vector machine classification methods are able to accurately identify participants' decision strategies before they commit to action while playing games. Our approach focuses on creating scanpath images that best capture the dynamics of a participant's gaze behaviour in a way that is meaningful for predictions to the machine learning models. Our results demonstrate a higher classification accuracy by 18% points compared to a baseline logistic regression model, which is traditionally used to analyse gaze data recorded during economic games. In a broader context, we aim to illustrate the potential for eye-tracking data to create information asymmetries in strategic environments in favour of those who collect and process the data. These information asymmetries could become especially relevant as eye-tracking is expected to become more widespread in user applications, with the seemingly imminent mass adoption of virtual reality systems and the development of devices with the ability to record eye movement outside of a laboratory setting.

Emergent treatments for ß-thalassemia and orphan drug legislations.

In many countries, ß-thalassemia (ß-THAL) is not uncommon; however, it qualifies as a rare disease in the US and in European Union (EU), where thalassemia drugs are eligible for Orphan Drug Designation (ODD). In this paper, we evaluate all 28 ODDs for ß-THAL granted since 2001 in the US and the EU: of these, ten have since been discontinued, twelve are pending, and six have become licensed drugs available for clinical use. The prime mover for these advances has been the increasing depth of understanding of the pathophysiology of ß-THAL; at the same time, and even though only one-fifth of ß-THAL ODDs have become licensed drugs, the ODD legislation has clearly contributed substantially to the development of improved treatments for ß-THAL.

The Evolution of Psychological and Behavioral Consequences of Self-Isolation During Lockdown: A Longitudinal Study Across United Kingdom and Italy.

Introduction: Several countries imposed nationwide or partial lockdowns to limit the spread of COVID-19 and avoid overwhelming hospitals and intensive care units. Lockdown may involve restriction of movement, stay-at-home orders and self-isolation, which may have dramatic consequences on mental health. Recent studies demonstrated that the negative impact of lockdown restrictions depends on a wide range of psychological and socio-demographic factors. Aims: This longitudinal study aimed to understand how internal factors such as personality and mindfulness traits, and external factors, such as daily habits and house features, affect anxiety, depression and general wellbeing indicators, as well as cognitive functions, during the course of a lockdown. Methods: To address these questions, 96 participants in Italy and the United Kingdom filled out a survey, once a week for 4 weeks, during the first-wave lockdowns. The survey included questions related to their habits and features of the house, as well as validated questionnaires to measure personality traits, mindful attitude and post-traumatic symptoms. Indicators of wellbeing were the affective state, anxiety, stress and psychopathological indices. We also measured the emotional impact of the pandemic on cognitive ability by using two online behavioral tasks [emotional Stroop task (EST) and visual search]. Results: We found that internal factors influenced participants' wellbeing during the first week of the study, while external factors affected participants in the last weeks. In the first week, internal variables such as openness, conscientiousness and being non-judgmental toward one's own thoughts and emotions were positively associated with wellbeing; instead, neuroticism and the tendency to observe and describe one's own thoughts and emotions had detrimental effects on wellbeing. Toward the end of the study, external variables such as watching television and movies, browsing the internet, walking the dog, and having a balcony showed a protective value, while social networking and engaging in video calls predicted lower values of wellbeing. We did not find any effects of wellbeing on cognitive functioning. Conclusion: Recognizing specific traits and habits affecting individuals' wellbeing (in both short and long terms) during social isolation is crucial to identify people at risk of developing psychological distress and help refine current guidelines to alleviate the psychological consequences of prolonged lockdowns.

A machine learning approach to economic complexity based on matrix completion.

This work applies Matrix Completion (MC) - a class of machine-learning methods commonly used in recommendation systems - to analyze economic complexity. In this paper MC is applied to reconstruct the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) matrix, whose elements express the relative advantage of countries in given classes of products, as evidenced by yearly trade flows. A high-accuracy binary classifier is derived from the MC application to discriminate between elements of the RCA matrix that are, respectively, higher/lower than one. We introduce a novel Matrix cOmpletion iNdex of Economic complexitY (MONEY) based on MC and related to the degree of predictability of the RCA entries of different countries (the lower the predictability, the higher the complexity). Differently from previously-developed economic complexity indices, MONEY takes into account several singular vectors of the matrix reconstructed by MC. In contrast, other indices are based only on one/two eigenvectors of a suitable symmetric matrix derived from the RCA matrix. Finally, MC is compared with state-of-the-art economic complexity indices, showing that the MC-based classifier achieves better performance than previous methods based on the application of machine learning to economic complexity.

Pharmaceutical net price transparency across european markets: Insights from a multi-agent simulation model.

With pharmaceutical health policy striving for fair and sustainable pricing under increasing budgetary pressures, public stakeholders are more and more willing to be involved in transparent access decision-making related to novel medicines, considered by them to be a societal good. Full net price transparency (NPT) is believed by many to promote price competition and to increase equity by making pharmaceutical products accessible to all. Using agent-based simulations, we find that a full NPT system implemented across EU countries would not be viable. This while, acting as rational economic agents, a group of middle- and lower-income countries would not be willing to give up their confidential agreements with the pharmaceutical industry. Even partial NPT would delay access predominantly in middle- to lower-income countries. Hence, we conclude that implementing net price transparency across Europe would be challenging to reach from a political perspective. Especially in lower-income countries there would remain a plea to be left free to negotiate confidential discounts with drug manufacturers. This while, counterintuitively, in those countries NPT will be seen to be unjust while violating Ramsey pricing and distributive justice principles.

[Unmet clinical need and new therapeutic options.] / Unmet clinical need e nuovi farmaci.

The debate around unmet clinical need (UCN) is still very much alive. How do we define UCN? How does it influence the definition of clinically relevant outcomes in a therapeutic area? Who defines UCN? What are the consequences of recognizing different grading of UCN? In this paper we will address these questions and finally formulate proposals for the Italian context. The paper is based on a discussion within a panel of experts. This topic is even more stimulating as this work takes place in a historical period which, on the one hand, sees the start of a new course of negotiation rules recently published by AIFA and, on the other hand, poses unprecedented challenges that emerged during the pandemic crisis. The working group formulated suggestions and proposals to further enhance the role of the UCN in decision-making processes, also in the light of the new negotiation procedure, and to help refine the tools for grading the UCN and the value of medicines in the interests of patients and society as a whole.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on scientific research in the life sciences.

The COVID-19 outbreak has posed an unprecedented challenge to humanity and science. On the one side, public and private incentives have been put in place to promptly allocate resources toward research areas strictly related to the COVID-19 emergency. However, research in many fields not directly related to the pandemic has been displaced. In this paper, we assess the impact of COVID-19 on world scientific production in the life sciences and find indications that the usage of medical subject headings (MeSH) has changed following the outbreak. We estimate through a difference-in-differences approach the impact of the start of the COVID-19 pandemic on scientific production using the PubMed database (3.6 Million research papers). We find that COVID-19-related MeSH terms have experienced a 6.5 fold increase in output on average, while publications on unrelated MeSH terms dropped by 10 to 12%. The publication weighted impact has an even more pronounced negative effect (-16% to -19%). Moreover, COVID-19 has displaced clinical trial publications (-24%) and diverted grants from research areas not closely related to COVID-19. Note that since COVID-19 publications may have been fast-tracked, the sudden surge in COVID-19 publications might be driven by editorial policy.