Simple proxies of insulin resistance identify obese metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease subjects with advanced liver disease.

AIMS: Insulin resistance (IR) plays a pivotal role in the pathogenesis of Metabolic dysfunction-Associated Fatty Liver Disease (MAFLD), which can progress to liver fibrosis. We examined the relationship of different IR scores with markers of MAFLD severity in obese individuals. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this retrospective observational study, 346 non-diabetic, overweight/obese individuals with newly diagnosed MAFLD (age 50.2 ± 13.3 years, 34% females, BMI 30.8 ± 4.4 kg/m2 ) underwent liver stiffness (LS) and controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) measurements by Fibroscan® to assess liver fibrosis and steatosis. Biochemical data were collected to calculate surrogate markers of IR (Homoeostasis model assessment - insulin resistance index [HOMA-IR], triglyceride-glucose index, triglyceride by HDL ratio), liver fibrosis (Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Diseases fibrosis score, fibrosis-4 score, Aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index) and steatosis (fatty liver index, hepatic steatosis index). RESULTS: All three IR scores were associated with CAP, while only HOMA-IR positively correlated with LS (r = 0.275, p < 0.0001), independent of age and sex, BMI, transaminases, and fibrosis markers. Insulin-resistant individuals (HOMA-IR >2.5, n = 165) had higher liver enzymes, CAP and LS, with a 4-fold increased risk of severe liver disease (LS >9.7 kPa, OR 4.42[1.95-10.01], p = 0.0002). Among HOMA-IR components, fasting plasma insulin (FPI) was independently associated with LS (r = 0.270, p < 0.0001). ROC AUC for HOMA-IR and FPI to predict severe liver disease were virtually identical (0.748 and 0.758, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: HOMA-IR is independently associated with non-invasive markers of MAFLD severity in overweight/obese individuals. This relationship is largely mediated by hyperinsulinemia, regardless of BMI. Measuring insulin levels in MAFLD individuals might be useful to identify those at risk of liver fibrosis.

The Circulating miRNA Profile of Chronic Hepatitis D and B Patients Is Comparable but Differs from That of Individuals with HBeAg-Negative HBV Infection.

miRNAs circulating in whole serum and HBsAg-particles are differentially expressed in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and HBeAg-negative-HBV infection (ENI); their profiles are unknown in chronic hepatitis D (CHD). Serum- and HBsAg-associated miRNAs were analyzed in 75 subjects of 3 well-characterized groups (CHB 25, CHD 25, ENI 25) using next-generation sequencing (NGS). Overall miRNA profiles were consonant in serum and HBsAg-particles but significantly different according to the presence of hepatitis independently of Hepatitis D Virus (HDV)-co-infection. Stringent (Bonferroni Correction < 0.001) differential expression analysis showed 39 miRNAs upregulated in CHB vs. ENI and 31 of them also in CHD vs. ENI. miRNA profiles were coincident in CHB and CHD with only miR-200a-3p upregulated in CHB. Three miRNAs (miR-625-3p, miR-142-5p, and miR-223-3p) involved in immune response were upregulated in ENI. All 3 hepatocellular miRNAs of MiR-B-Index (miR-122-5p, miR-99a-5p, miR-192-5p) were overexpressed in both CHB and CHD patients. In conclusion, CHD and CHB patients showed highly similar serum miRNA profiling that was significantly different from that of individuals with HBeAg-negative infection and without liver disease.

Highly dynamic changes of regional HBV epidemiology over two decades.

BACKGROUND & AIM: HBV epidemiology is highly heterogeneous and rapidly evolving worldwide: we studied its last two-decades dynamics in a large single center cohort. METHODS: In all consecutive HBsAg-positive subjects firstly admitted (2000-2019) at the Pisa-University-Hospital Hepatology-Referral-Center, demographic, virologic and clinical variables were analyzed by admission decade (2000-2009 vs 2010-2019) and origin (Italian vs non-Italian natives). RESULTS: Of 2003, 1878 (93.7%) subjects were eligible: 1798(95.7%) with HBV-chronic [126(7%) HDV, 72(4%) HCV, 11(0.6%) HIV co-infected] and 80(4.3%) HBV-primary infections (93.7% Italians). Among 1589(88.4%) mono-infected, 496(31.2%) were immigrants, younger than Italians [34.0(5.1-77.1)-52.5(10.0-87.2) years], with female prevalence [204/496(41.1%)-340/1093(31.1%); p<0.001] increasing overtime (14.6-45.0%; p<0.001). Italians aged across decades [50.3(11.1-87.2)-56.2(10.0-86.7) years; p<0.001], HBeAg-positivity remained stable (12.3-14.5%) and acute hepatitis increased (4.0-8.0%; p = 0.003). CHB declined [439/721(60.9%)-320/868(36.9%); p<0.001] whereas HBeAg-negative infection increased [277/626(44.2%)-538/755(71.3%); p<0.001]. Cirrhosis declined [195/721(27.0%)-125/868(14.4%); p<0.001], except in anti-HDV-patients [93/126(73.8%); 42(45.1%) non-Italians], younger than HBV-mono-infected (47.4-57.6 years; p<0.001). CONCLUSION: Effective preventive health care policies and immigration flows account for increasing prevalence of HBeAg-negative infection across the last two decades. Antiviral therapy mitigated disease progression in aging Italian CHB but not in CHD patients, mainly young immigrants, emphasizing the unmet need of effective CHD therapies; HBeAg-positive CHB and acute hepatitis B persist in non-vaccinated Italian adults, prompting vaccination in the elderly with risky behaviors.

Different Kinetics of HBV-DNA and HBsAg in HCV Coinfected Patients during DAAs Therapy.

Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for hepatitis C virus (HCV) may induce hepatitis B virus (HBV) reactivations in co-infected patients, whose dynamics and outcomes could depend on the phase of HBV infection. We investigated HBsAg and HBV-DNA kinetics in fifteen untreated HBeAg Negative Infection (ENI) (4F-11M, 62.1y) and eight Nucleos(t)ide Analogs (NAs) treated Chronic Hepatitis B (CHB) (3F-6M, 54.8y) with HCV co-infection, receiving DAAs-regimens including Sofosbuvir (13) or not (10). All achieved a sustained virologic response (SVR) and normalized alanine-aminotransferase (ALT). At the direct acting antivirals' (DAAs) baseline (BL), the HBV-DNA was undetectable (<6 IU/mL) in eight ENI and all CHB, the mean Log-HBsAg was lower in ENI than CHB (0.88 vs. 2.42, p = 0.035). During DAAs, HBV-DNA increased in untreated ENI by >1 Log in five and became detectable in two. Accordingly, mean BL Log-HBV-DNA (0.89) increased at week-4 (1.78; p = 0.100) and at the end of therapy (1.57; p = 0.104). Mean Log-HBsAg decreased at week-4 in ENI (from 0.88 to 0.55; p = 0.020) and CHB (from 2.42 to 2.15; p = 0.015). After DAAs, the HBsAg returned to pre-treatment levels in CHB, but not in ENI (six cleared HBsAg). Female gender and SOF were associated with a greater HBsAg decline. In conclusion, HBV reactivations during DAAs in HCV co-infected ENI caused moderate increases of HBV-DNA without ALT elevations. The concomitant HBsAg decline, although significant, did not modify individual pre-treatment profiles.

Modeling Hepatocellular Carcinoma Cells Dynamics by Serological and Imaging Biomarkers to Explain the Different Responses to Sorafenib and Regorafenib.

In advanced HCC, tyrosine-kinase inhibitors obtain partial responses (PR) in some patients and complete responses (CR) in a few. Better understanding of the mechanism of response could be achieved by the radiomic approach combining digital imaging and serological biomarkers (α-fetoprotein, AFP and protein induced by vitamin K absence-II, PIVKA-II) kinetics. A physic-mathematical model was developed to investigate cancer cells and vasculature dynamics in three prototype patients receiving sorafenib and/or regorafenib and applied in seven others for validation. Overall four patients showed CR, two PR, two stable-disease (SD) and two progressive-disease (PD). The rate constant of cancer cells production was higher in PD than in PR-SD and CR (median: 0.398 vs. 0.325 vs. 0.316 C × day-1). Therapy induced reduction of neo-angiogenesis was greater in CR than in PR-SD and PD (median: 83.2% vs. 29.4% and 2.0%), as the reduction of cell-proliferation (55.2% vs. 7.6% and 0.7%). An additional dose-dependent acceleration of tumor vasculature decay was also observed in CR. AFP and cancer cells followed the same kinetics, whereas PIVKA-II time/dose dependent fluctuations were influenced also by tissue ischemia. In conclusion, pending confirmation in a larger HCC cohort, modeling serological and imaging biomarkers could be a new tool for systemic therapy personalization.

Incremental value of HBcrAg to classify 1582 HBeAg-negative individuals in chronic infection without liver disease or hepatitis.

BACKGROUND: An accurate, single-point differential diagnosis between HBeAg-negative infection (ENI) and chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is an unmet need. AIMS: To assess the diagnostic value of the new hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) assay. METHODS: A retrospective anonymised data analysis was performed in a multicentre European (nine centres and six countries) cohort of 1582 consecutive HBsAg-positive/HBeAg-negative subjects classified according to EASL guidelines as: 550-CHB, 710-ENI and 322-GZ (grey-zone, HBV-DNA <20 000 IU/mL). RESULTS: Mean age was 44 (±13.2 y), 59% were men; HBV genotypes were 15% A, 2% B, 2% C, 45% D, 9% E, 1% F and 26% unknown. Median HBV-DNA serum levels were 2.2 (1.5-2.7), 3.5 (3.2-3.8) and 5.6 (4.8-6.6) logIU/mL in ENI, GZ and CHB, P < 0.0001. HBsAg serum levels (HBsAgsl) were comparable in CHB and GZ, but lower in ENI (2.9 [2.1-3.6] logIU/mL), P < 0.0001. HBcrAg serum levels (HBcrAgsl) were <3 logU/mL in 90.7% (644/710) ENI, 75.2% (242/322) GZ and 4.7% (26/550) CHB (P < 0.0001). Median HBcrAgsl were 4.8 (3.9-5.7), 2.5 (2.0-2.9) and 2.0 (2.0-2.5) logU/mL in CHB, GZ and ENI, (P < 0.0001). ROC-AUCs for HBcrAg and HBsAg were 0.968 (95% CI, 0.958-0.977) and 0.732 (95% CI, 0.704-0.760) respectively. The optimal HBcrAgsl cut-off to distinguish CHB from ENI was 3.14 logU/mL (95% CI, 3.02-3.25, 91% SE, 93% SP and 92.4% DA). HBcrAgsl were associated with HBV genotypes (P < 0.001, one-way ANOVA) but using genotype-specific cut-offs, HBcrAg DA remained unchanged with overlapping 95% CI. CONCLUSION: The HBcrAg assay showed high diagnostic performance in the accurate single-point identification of patients with HBeAg-negative CHB, independently of HBV genotype. This should prompt future prospective studies to confirm its diagnostic role in clinical practice.

Modeling the time-related fluctuations of AFP and PIVKA-II serum levels in patients with cirrhosis undergoing surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The time-related variability of HCC biomarkers has not been investigated so far. OBJECTIVE: To assess the changes of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and protein induced by vitamin-K absence/antagonist-II (PIVKA-II) in patients with HCC (HCC+) as compared to patients without HCC (HCC-). METHODS: AFP and PIVKA-II were measured by a single laboratory using an automated chemiluminescent-enzyme-immunoassay (Fujirebio Inc., Tokyo, Japan) in 1163 sera of 418 cirrhotics (31.1% HBV, 58.6% HCV, 10.3% non-viral etiology) undergoing ultrasound HCC surveillance. The mean (range) number of effective time-points available for analysis was 2.8 (2.0 to 3.0); 124 patients with HCC were matched with 294 who remained HCC free for at least 12 months after the last specimen. AFP and PIVKA-II changes were estimated over time by means of a random-effect generalized least squares (RE-GLS) regression model under the missingness at random assumption. RESULTS: Patients with and without HCC had comparable chronic liver disease etiology and staging. AFP/PIVKA-II median (25th; 75th percentile) values at the latest time-point were 4.2 (2.6; 8.6) ng/mL/32 (25; 42) mAU/mL in HCC- and 8.4 (4.4; 32.1) ng/mL/66 (32; 192) mAU/mL in HCC+ (p< 0.001). Log10AFP and log10PIVKA-II time-changes differed in HCC+ and HCC- patients. In HCC+ patients, both log10AFP and log10PIVKA-II showed an increasing trend over time. In HCC- patients, log10PIVKA-II variations were minimal as compared to log10AFP variations. The percent increase of log10AFP at 6 months vs. baseline was 11% (95%CI 5 to 17%) and 5% (95%CI 1 to 8%) for log10PIVKA-II in HCC+vs. HCC- patients. CONCLUSIONS: The present retrospective study of the biological variability of AFP and PIVKA-II suggests that their time-related changes may serve as potential predictors of HCC. This topic needs to be addressed by longitudinal studies.

Do the circulating Pre-S/S quasispecies influence hepatitis B virus surface antigen levels in the HBeAg negative phase of HBV infection?

BACKGROUND: Virus, host factors and their interplay influence Hepatitis B surface Antigen serum levels during Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) infection course and treatment. AIM: To study the Pre-S/S circulating quasispecies in a cohort of untreated, HBeAg negative, genotype-D, HBsAg carriers. METHODS: We studied 260 carriers: 71 with HBeAg negative infection (ENI; HBV-DNA ≤2000 IU/mL); 42 Grey Zone (GZ; HBV-DNA ≤20 000 IU/mL); 82 chronic hepatitis (CH) and 65 cirrhosis (CI) (HBV-DNA > 20 000 IU/mL). Population sequencing was applied to identify Pre-S/S gene mutations responsible for any amino acid substitution or potential biological/antigenic implications (M-muts) on HBsAg. RESULTS: HBsAg serum levels were lower in ENI + GZ than in CH + CI (2.61 [-1.10/4.06] vs 3.62 [2.41/4.92] log10 IU/mL, P < 0.001) and in CI than CH (3.48 [2.41/4.38] vs 3.66 [2.57/4.92] log10 IU/mL, P < 0.001). M-muts were found in 73 (28.1%) cases: 5 (7.0%) ENI, 3 (7.1%) GZ, 26 (31.7%) CH, 39 (60.0%) CI (P < 0.001) and mostly in Pre-S2 (17.6%) than Pre-S1 (5.8%) and Small-S (10.8%; P < 0.001). Overall HBsAg serum levels were higher in carriers with M-muts (3.56 [0.95/4.38] vs 3.17 [-1.10/4.92] log10 IU/mL, P < 0.001), but comparable in carriers with or without M-mut when considering separately ENI + GZ (2.84 [0.95/3.89] vs 2.61 [-1.10/4.06] log10 IU/mL, P = 0.330] and CH + CI (3.57 [2.67/4.38] vs 3.63 [2.41/4.92] log10 IU/mL, P = 0.37). Infection phase (ß: 0.422, P < 0.001), age (ß: -0.260, P < 0.001), ALT (ß: -0.103, P = 0.045), liver stiffness (ß: -0.118, P = 0.039) and HBV-DNA (ß: 0.384, P < 0.001), but not M-mut were independently associated with HBsAg serum levels. CONCLUSIONS: In HBeAg negative, genotype-D, carriers Pre-S/S heterogeneity increases with severity of liver disease, but does not influence HBsAg serum levels, that in low viraemic carriers are associated with an effective control of HBV.

Impact of etiology of chronic liver disease on hepatocellular carcinoma biomarkers.

BACKGROUND: The role of serum biomarkers in the surveillance of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is controversial. OBJECTIVE: We assessed the diagnostic performances of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and protein-induced by vitamin-K-absence/antagonist-II (PIVKA-II) in 388 cirrhotic patients with chronic liver disease (CLD). METHODS: Biomarkers were quantified by automated chemiluminescent-enzyme-immunoassays (Fujirebio, Tokyo, Japan) at HCC diagnosis in 258 patients (204 males; median age 66.9 years) and in 130 cirrhotics without HCC (104 males; median-age 60.6 years). CLD etiology in HCC/non-HCC was CHB in 48/35, CHC in 126/56 and Non-Viral in 84/39. RESULTS: Overall AUROC values for AFP and PIVKA-II were 0.698 (95%CI = 0.642-0.753, P< 0.001) and 0.780 (95%CI = 0.730-0.831, P< 0.001). AFP/PIVKA-II AUROC (95%CI) were: 0.822 (0.728-0.915)/0.833 (0.739-0.926) in CHB, 0.648 (0.560-0.736)/0.732 (0.650-0.814) in CHC; 0.640 (0.540-0.740)/0.806 (0.722-0.889) in Non-Viral-CLD. AFP/PIVKA-II diagnostic accuracy was 40.5-59.8%/62.7-73.5% and combining both markers 78.2% for CHB, 77% for Non-Viral-CLD and 75% for CHC. AFP correlated with ALT in HCC patients with CHC (ρ= 0.463/P< 0.001) and Non-Viral CLD (ρ= 0.359/P= 0.047), but not in CHB (treated with antivirals). PIVKA-II correlated with tumour size independently of CLD-etiology (P< 0.001) and AFP in CHB patients only (P= 0.007). CONCLUSION: The diagnostic performance of AFP and PIVKA-II is significantly influenced by the etiology and activity of CLD; their combination provides a better diagnostic accuracy.

Long-term outcome of inactive and active, low viraemic HBeAg-negative-hepatitis B virus infection: Benign course towards HBsAg clearance.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The difference between the long-term outcome of low-viraemic (HBV-DNA≤20 000-IU/mL, LV-AC) and inactive HBsAg carriers (HBV-DNA≤2000-IU/mL, IC) remains to be defined. We studied prospectively 153 HBeAg-negative HBsAg-carriers with baseline HBV-DNA≤20 000-IU/mL and normal transaminases. METHODS: IC, LV-AC or chronic hepatitis B (CHB) (HBV-DNA persistently ≤2000-IU/mL, ≤20 000-IU/mL or >20 000-IU/mL respectively) were diagnosed after 1-year, 3-monthly monitoring. Thereafter IC and LV-AC were followed-up for additional 57.2 (8.5-158.3) months. HBV-DNA, HBsAg, HBV"core-related"Antigen (HBcrAg) and total-anti-HBc were quantified at baseline. RESULTS: After the 1st year diagnostic follow-up CHB [higher HBV-DNA (P=.005), total-anti-HBc (P=.012), ALT (P=.007) and liver-stiffness (P=.021)] was identified in 20 (13.1%) carriers; baseline HBsAg≤1000IU/HBV-DNA≤2000IU/mL excluded the presence of CHB (NPV-100%). Thereafter, during the long-term follow-up none of 87 IC reactivated, 19 (21.8%) cleared HBsAg [older-age (P=.004), lower HBsAg (P<.001), higher yearly HBsAg decline (P<.001)]. Twenty-five of 46 (54.3%) LV-AC remained stable, 20 (43.5%) became IC and 1 (2.2%) developed CHB. The best single-point CHB and IC diagnostic-accuracies were total-anti-HBc (84.2%, NPV-98.2%) and HBV-DNA/total-anti-HBc/HBcrAg combination (89.5%, 93%-sensitivity, 84.8%-specificity) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Viraemia persistently ≤20 000-IU/mL predicts a benign clinical outcome: it was associated with transition to IC in 43% of LV-AC and to Occult HBV Infection in 20% of IC within 5-years. Nevertheless, 13.1% of individuals with low viraemia at presentation develops CHB within 1 year: 1-year HBV-DNA monitoring resulted the most accurate diagnostic approach that can be limited to at least a half of cases by the single point HBV-DNA/HBsAg quantification. The IC-diagnostic-accuracy combining HBV-DNA/total-anti-HBc/HBcrAg needs to be confirmed in further studies.

New immunoassays for total, IgA and IgM antibodies against hepatitis E virus: Prevalence in Italian blood donors and patients with chronic liver or kidney diseases.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is a zoonotic agent that causes acute hepatitis in humans with sporadic infections and outbreaks in developing countries worldwide. The global spread of HEV remains underestimated because of subclinical infections and lack of sensitive diagnostic assays. AIMS: To study the prevalence of HEV antibodies (anti-HEV) in sera of blood-donors and patients with chronic-liver-disease and chronic-renal-disease, using newly developed anti-HEV assays. METHODS: 396 sera from 199 blood-donors, 109 chronic-liver-disease patients and 88 chronic-renal-disease patients and three standard reference serum panels were tested in parallel with a sensitive reference anti-HEV assay and newly developed assays for IgA, IgM and total anti-HEV based on HEV-like-particles produced by recombinant baculo-viruses. RESULTS: Overall, total anti-HEV was detected in 12.9% (7.0% blood-donors, 9.2% and 30.7% chronic-liver-disease patients and chronic-renal-disease patients, respectively). We observed a higher anti-HEV prevalence in older subjects and in chronic-renal-disease patients in relation with degree on immune-depression (p<0.001). Results from reference serum panels showed an optimal and slightly better performance of the new assay over the commercially available assay. CONCLUSIONS: Newly developed anti-HEV assays using recombinant HEV-like-particles showed optimal diagnostic performances assessing that HEV-infection is endemic in Italy with seroprevalence ranging from 7% to 30% in blood donors and immune-compromised hosts, respectively.

Total Hepatitis B Core Antigen Antibody, a Quantitative Non-Invasive Marker of Hepatitis B Virus Induced Liver Disease.

Non invasive immunologic markers of virus-induced liver disease are unmet needs. We tested the clinical significance of quantitative total and IgM-anti-HBc in well characterized chronic-HBsAg-carriers. Sera (212) were obtained from 111 HBsAg-carriers followed-up for 52 months (28-216) during different phases of chronic-HBV-genotype-D-infection: 10 HBeAg-positive, 25 inactive-carriers (HBV-DNA≤2000IU/ml, ALT<30U/L), 66 HBeAg-negative-CHB-patients and 10 with HDV-super-infection. In 35 patients treated with Peg-IFN±nucleos(t)ide-analogues (NUCs) sera were obtained at baseline, end-of-therapy and week-24-off-therapy and in 22 treated with NUCs (for 60 months, 42-134m) at baseline and end-of-follow-up. HBsAg and IgM-anti-HBc were measured by Architect-assays (Abbott, USA); total-anti-HBc by double-antigen-sandwich-immune-assay (Wantai, China); HBV-DNA by COBAS-TaqMan (Roche, Germany). Total-anti-HBc were detectable in all sera with lower levels in HBsAg-carriers without CHB (immune-tolerant, inactive and HDV-superinfected, median 3.26, range 2.26-4.49 Log10 IU/ml) versus untreated-CHB (median 4.68, range 2.76-5.54 Log10 IU/ml), p<0.0001. IgM-anti-HBc positive using the chronic-hepatitis-cut-off" (0.130-S/CO) were positive in 102 of 212 sera (48.1%). Overall total-anti-HBc and IgM-anti-HBc correlated significantly (p<0.001, r=0.417). Total-anti-HBc declined significantly in CHB patients with response to Peg-IFN (p<0.001) and in NUC-treated patients (p<0.001); the lowest levels (median 2.68, range 2.12-3.08 Log10 IU/ml) were found in long-term responders who cleared HBsAg subsequently. During spontaneous and therapy-induced fluctuations of CHB (remissions and reactivations) total- and IgM-anti-HBc correlated with ALT (p<0.001, r=0.351 and p=0.008, r=0.185 respectively). Total-anti-HBc qualifies as a useful marker of HBV-induced-liver-disease that might help to discriminate major phases of chronic HBV infection and to predict sustained response to antivirals.

A cost-effectiveness model to personalize antiviral therapy in naive patients with genotype 1 chronic hepatitis C.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Rapid virologic response is the best predictor of sustained virologic response with dual therapy in genotype-1 chronic hepatitis C, and its evaluation was proposed to tailor triple therapy in F0-F2 patients. Bio-mathematical modelling of viral dynamics during dual therapy has potentially higher accuracy than rapid virologic in the identification of patients who will eventually achieve sustained response. Study's objective was the cost-effectiveness analysis of a personalized therapy in naïve F0-F2 patients with chronic hepatitis C based on a bio-mathematical model (model-guided strategy) rather than on rapid virologic response (guideline-guided strategy). METHODS: A deterministic bio-mathematical model of the infected cell dynamics was validated in a cohort of 135 patients treated with dual therapy. A decision-analytic economic model was then developed to compare model-guided and guideline-guided strategies in the Italian setting. RESULTS: The outcomes of the cost-effectiveness analysis with model-guided and guideline-guided strategy were 19.1-19.4 and 18.9-19.3 quality-adjusted-life-years. Total per-patient lifetime costs were €25,200-€26,000 with model-guided strategy and €28,800-€29,900 with guideline-guided strategy. When comparing model-guided with guideline-guided strategy the former resulted more effective and less costly. CONCLUSIONS: The adoption of the bio-mathematical predictive criterion has the potential to improve the cost-effectiveness of a personalized therapy for chronic hepatitis C, reserving triple therapy for those patients who really need it.