Clinical predictors of hypoxic pneumonia in children from the Eastern Highlands Province, Papua New Guinea: secondary analysis of two prospective observational studies.

Background: Pneumonia is the leading cause of death in young children globally and is prevalent in the Papua New Guinea highlands. We investigated clinical predictors of hypoxic pneumonia to inform local treatment guidelines in this resource-limited setting. Methods: Between 2013 and 2020, two consecutive prospective observational studies were undertaken enrolling children 0-4 years presenting with pneumonia to health-care facilities in Goroka Town, Eastern Highlands Province. Logistic regression models were developed to identify clinical predictors of hypoxic pneumonia (oxygen saturation <90% on presentation). Model performance was compared against established criteria to identify severe pneumonia. Findings: There were 2067 cases of pneumonia; hypoxaemia was detected in 36.1%. The strongest independent predictors of hypoxic pneumonia were central cyanosis on examination (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 5.14; 95% CI 3.47-7.60), reduced breath sounds (aOR 2.92; 95% CI 2.30-3.71), and nasal flaring or grunting (aOR 2.34; 95% CI 1.62-3.38). While the model developed to predict hypoxic pneumonia outperformed established pneumonia severity criteria, it was not sensitive enough to be clinically useful at this time. Interpretation: Given signs and symptoms are unable to accurately detect hypoxia, all health care facilities should be equipped with pulse oximeters. However, for the health care worker without access to pulse oximetry, consideration of central cyanosis, reduced breath sounds, nasal flaring or grunting, age-specific tachycardia, wheezing, parent-reported drowsiness, or bronchial breathing as suggestive of hypoxaemic pneumonia, and thus severe disease, may prove useful in guiding management, hospital referral and use of oxygen therapy. Funding: Funded by Pfizer Global and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccination to prevent febrile and respiratory illness in adults (BRACE): secondary outcomes of a randomised controlled phase 3 trial.

Background: Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination has off-target (non-specific) effects that are associated with protection against unrelated infections and decreased all-cause mortality in infants. We aimed to determine whether BCG vaccination prevents febrile and respiratory infections in adults. Methods: This randomised controlled phase 3 trial was done in 36 healthcare centres in Australia, Brazil, the Netherlands, Spain, and the United Kingdom. Healthcare workers were randomised to receive BCG-Denmark (single 0.1 ml intradermal injection) or no BCG in a 1:1 ratio using a web-based procedure, stratified by stage, site, age, and presence of co-morbidity. The difference in occurrence of febrile or respiratory illness were measured over 12 months (prespecified secondary outcome) using the intention-to-treat (ITT) population. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04327206. Findings: Between March 30, 2020, and April 1, 2021, 6828 healthcare workers were randomised to BCG-Denmark (n = 3417) or control (n = 3411; no intervention or placebo) groups. The 12-month adjusted estimated risk of ≥1 episode of febrile or respiratory illness was 66.8% in the BCG group (95% CI 65.3%-68.2%), compared with 63.4% in the control group (95% CI 61.8%-65.0%), a difference of +3.4 percentage points (95% CI +1.3% to +5.5%; p 0.002). The adjusted estimated risk of a severe episode (defined as being incapacitated for ≥3 consecutive days or hospitalised) was 19.4% in the BCG group (95% CI 18.0%-20.7%), compared with 18.8% in the control group (95% CI 17.4%-20.2%) a difference of +0.6 percentage points (95% CI -1.3% to +2.5%; p 0.6). Both groups had a similar number of episodes of illness, pneumonia, and hospitalisation. There were three deaths, all in the control group. There were no safety concerns following BCG vaccination. Interpretation: In contrast to the beneficial off-target effects reported following neonatal BCG in infants, a small increased risk of symptomatic febrile or respiratory illness was observed in the 12 months following BCG vaccination in adults. There was no evidence of a difference in the risk of severe disease. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Minderoo Foundation, Sarah and Lachlan Murdoch, the Royal Children's Hospital Foundation, Health Services Union NSW, the Peter Sowerby Foundation, SA Health, the Insurance Advisernet Foundation, the NAB Foundation, the Calvert-Jones Foundation, the Modara Pines Charitable Foundation, the UHG Foundation Pty Ltd, Epworth Healthcare, the National Health and Medical Research Council, the Swiss National Science Foundation and individual donors.

An infant mouse model of influenza-driven nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae colonization and acute otitis media suitable for preclinical testing of novel therapies.

Nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) is a major otitis media (OM) pathogen, with colonization a prerequisite for disease development. Most acute OM is in children <5 years old, with recurrent and chronic OM impacting hearing and learning. Therapies to prevent NTHi colonization and/or disease are needed, especially for young children. Respiratory viruses are implicated in driving the development of bacterial OM in children. We have developed an infant mouse model of influenza-driven NTHi OM, as a preclinical tool for the evaluation of safety and efficacy of clinical therapies to prevent NTHi colonization and the development of OM. In this model, 100% of infant BALB/cARC mice were colonized with NTHi, and all developed NTHi OM. Influenza A virus (IAV) facilitated the establishment of dense (1 × 105 CFU/mL) and long-lasting (6 days) NTHi colonization. IAV was essential for the development of NTHi OM, with 100% of mice in the IAV/NTHi group developing NTHi OM compared with 8% of mice in the NTHi only group. Histological analysis and cytokine measurements revealed that the inflammation observed in the middle ear of the infant mice with OM reflected inflammation observed in children with OM. We have developed the first infant mouse model of NTHi colonization and OM. This ascension model uses influenza-driven establishment of OM and reflects the clinical pathology of bacterial OM developing after a respiratory virus infection. This model provides a valuable tool for testing therapies to prevent or treat NTHi colonization and disease in young children.

Nasal Delivery of Haemophilus haemolyticus Is Safe, Reduces Influenza Severity, and Prevents Development of Otitis Media in Mice.

BACKGROUND: Despite vaccination, influenza and otitis media (OM) remain leading causes of illness. We previously found that the human respiratory commensal Haemophilus haemolyticus prevents bacterial infection in vitro and that the related murine commensal Muribacter muris delays OM development in mice. The observation that M muris pretreatment reduced lung influenza titer and inflammation suggests that these bacteria could be exploited for protection against influenza/OM. METHODS: Safety and efficacy of intranasal H haemolyticus at 5 × 107 colony-forming units (CFU) was tested in female BALB/cARC mice using an influenza model and influenza-driven nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) OM model. Weight, symptoms, viral/bacterial levels, and immune responses were measured. RESULTS: Intranasal delivery of H haemolyticus was safe and reduced severity of influenza, with quicker recovery, reduced inflammation, and lower lung influenza virus titers (up to 8-fold decrease vs placebo; P ≤ .01). Haemophilus haemolyticus reduced NTHi colonization density (day 5 median NTHi CFU/mL = 1.79 × 103 in treatment group vs 4.04 × 104 in placebo, P = .041; day 7 median NTHi CFU/mL = 28.18 vs 1.03 × 104; P = .028) and prevented OM (17% OM in treatment group, 83% in placebo group; P = .015). CONCLUSIONS: Haemophilus haemolyticus has potential as a live biotherapeutic for prevention or early treatment of influenza and influenza-driven NTHi OM. Additional studies will deem whether these findings translate to humans and other respiratory infections.

Parental awareness and attitudes towards prevention of respiratory syncytial virus in infants and young children in Australia.

AIM: To assess parental awareness of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and the level of acceptance of future RSV prevention strategies. METHODS: A cross-sectional online survey was implemented targeting "future" and "current" parents of children aged ≤5 years in Australia. RESULTS: From 1992 eligible participants, two non-mutually exclusive subgroups were formed: "current" parents (N = 1931) and "pregnant/planning" parents (N = 464: 403 also "current" parents and 61 "future" parents). Participants were predominantly (86.6%) aged 25-39 years and 68.5% with university education. The majority (89.6% current; 78.7% future) had heard of RSV. Of those, 64.2% (current) and 50.0% (future) were aware that pneumonia is associated with RSV; 71.8% (current) and 52.1% (future) were aware that bronchiolitis is associated with RSV. In multivariable logistic regression analyses, Australian-born parents (aOR = 2.47 [95% CI: 1.48-4.12]), living in the eastern states (e.g., New South Wales: aOR = 6.15 [95% CI:2.10-18.04]), with a university-level education (aOR = 2.61 [95% CI:1.38-4.94]) and being a current parent (aOR = 12.26 [95% CI:2.82-53.28]) were associated with higher RSV awareness. There was a high level of acceptance for maternal vaccines (future: 79.3%) and infant immunisation (all: 81.7%). CONCLUSION: While RSV awareness and immunisation acceptance were high, there was limited knowledge of severity of RSV, especially in future parents. Education campaigns need to be developed to increase RSV knowledge.

Infant Whole-Cell Versus Acellular Pertussis Vaccination in 1997 to 1999 and Risk of Childhood Hospitalization for Food-Induced Anaphylaxis: Linked Administrative Databases Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests that children who had received an initial priming dose of whole-cell pertussis (wP) vaccine, rather than acellular pertussis (aP) vaccine, had a lower risk of developing IgE-mediated food allergy, the most common cause of anaphylaxis-related hospital presentations of childhood. OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between wP versus aP vaccination in infancy and subsequent hospital presentations for anaphylaxis. METHODS: This study was preregistered under PMID 34874968. Perinatal records for a cohort of New South Wales-born children (1997-1999) receiving their first dose of pertussis-containing vaccine before age 4 months were probabilistically linked to hospital and immunization records. We used adjusted Cox models to estimate hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs for anaphylaxis-coded hospitalizations. RESULTS: There were 218,093 New South Wales-born children who received a first dose of wP or aP before age 4 months. Among these children, 86 experienced at least one hospitalization for food-induced anaphylaxis at age 5-15 years (range of events per patient, one to three). The person-time of follow-up was 1,476,969 years, and 665,519 years for children vaccinated with wP as a first dose (wP-1 children) and aP as a first dose (aP-1 children), respectively. The incidence rates for first hospitalization for food anaphylaxis were 3.5 (95% CI, 2.6-4.6) and 5.1 (95% CI, 3.5-7.1) per 100,000 child-years among wP-1 children and aP-1 children, respectively (aHR for wP vs aP = 0.47; 95% CI, 0.26-0.83). For first admission for venom anaphylaxis, the incidence rate was 4.9 (95% CI, 3.9-6.2) per 100,000 child-years among wP-1 children and 5.1 (95% CI, 3.5-7.1) per 100,000 child-years among aP-1 children (aHR for wP vs aP = 0.92; 95% CI, 0.53-1.60), and for all-cause anaphylaxis, the incidence rate was 10.6 (95% CI, 9.0-12.4) per 100,000 child-years among wP-1 children and 12.8 (95% CI, 10.2-15.8) per 100,000 child-years among aP-1 children (aHR for wP vs aP = 0.92; 95% CI, 0.53-1.60). CONCLUSION: Vaccination with wP in infancy was associated with a lower risk of hospitalizations for food-induced anaphylaxis (and therefore severe IgE-mediated food allergy) occurring in childhood.

A hospital-based asynchronous ENT telehealth service for children with otitis media: Cost-minimisation and improved access.

AIM: The purpose of this study is to explore the effectiveness of a hospital-based asynchronous ear, nose, and throat (ENT) telehealth service (the Ear Portal) in reducing cost and improving access for children with otitis media. METHODS: Participants were recruited to the Ear Portal from a tertiary hospital ENT waiting list. Ear and hearing assessments were conducted during appointments by the Ear Portal research assistant, and data was stored for an asynchronous review by the Ear Portal multidisciplinary team. A cost-minimisation analysis was conducted for the Ear Portal and the standard care pathways. Waiting times to provide care for both pathways were calculated for children with semi-urgent (i.e. Category 2) and non-urgent (i.e. Category 3) referrals. RESULTS: The running cost for the Ear Portal was $67.70 for initial appointments and $37.34 for follow-up appointments. Conversely, the running cost for the standard care pathway was $154.65 for initial appointments and $86.10 for follow-up appointments. A total of 223 appointments were required to offset the initial Ear Portal investment of $19,384.00. The median waiting time for the Ear Portal from initial contact to care plan delivery was <30 days, whereas the median waiting times for children in the standard care pathway were 291 days (interquartile range (IQR) = 117) for Category 2 and 371 days (IQR = 311) for Category 3 referrals. CONCLUSION: Under the current circumstances, the Ear Portal service can reduce costs for the health care system by reducing marginal costs per patient in addition to providing ENT specialist care within the clinically recommended timeframes.

Impact of ventilation tube insertion on long-term language outcomes at 6 and 10 years of age: A prospective pregnancy cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Investigating the impact of early childhood ventilation tube insertion (VTI) on long-term language outcomes. DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study. SETTING: A total of 2900 pregnant women participated in the Raine Study between 1989 and 1991 in Western Australia, and 2868 children have been followed up. PARTICIPANTS: Based on parental reports, 314 children had a history of recurrent otitis media but did not undergo VTI (rOM group); another 94 received VTI (VTI group); while 1735 had no history of rOM (reference group) in the first 3 years of childhood. Children with data on outcomes and confounders were included in analyses of PPVT-R at ages 6 (n = 1567) and 10 years (n = 1313) and CELF-III at 10 years (n = 1410) (approximately 5% in the VTI group and 15% in the rOM group). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test-Revised edition and Clinical Evaluation of Language Fundamentals® Preschool-3. RESULTS: At 6 years, mean PPVT-R scores were significantly lower in the VTI group than the reference group (ß = -3.3; 95% CI [-6.5 to -0.04], p = .047). At 10 years, while the difference between the VTI and reference groups was less pronounced for PPVT-R scores, there was a small but consistent trend of lower measures, on average, across CELF-III scores (expressive: ß = -3.4 [-7.1 to 0.27], p = .069; receptive: ß = -4.1 [-7.9 to -0.34], p = .033; total: ß = -3.9 [-7.5 to -0.21], p = .038). There was no evidence to suggest that language outcomes in the rOM group differed from the reference group. CONCLUSION: Lower scores of language outcomes in school-aged children who received VTI in early childhood may suggest a long-term risk which should be considered alongside the potential benefits of VTI.

Meningococcal Disease in the Post-COVID-19 Era: A Time to Prepare.

The global invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) landscape changed considerably during the COVID-19 pandemic, as evidenced by decreased incidence rates due to COVID-19 mitigation measures, such as limited social contact, physical distancing, mask wearing, and hand washing. Vaccination rates were also lower during the pandemic relative to pre-pandemic levels. Although policymakers may have shifted their focus away from IMD vaccination programs to COVID-19 vaccination programs, strong arguments support implementation and prioritization of IMD vaccination programs; IMD cases have increased in some countries and IMD rates may even have exceeded pre-pandemic levels. Additional concerns include increased susceptibility due to vaccination coverage gaps, increased incidence of other respiratory pathogens, immunity debt from lockdown restrictions, and increased IMD epidemiologic variability. The full range of benefits of widely available and effective meningococcal vaccines needs to be considered, especially in health technology assessments, where the broad benefits of these vaccines are neither accurately quantified nor captured in implementation policy decisions. Importantly, implementation of meningococcal vaccination programs in the current IMD climate also appeals to broader healthcare principles, including preparedness rather than reactive approaches, generally accepted benefit-risk approaches to vaccination, historical precedent, and the World Health Organization's goal of defeating meningitis by 2030. Countries should therefore act swiftly to bolster existing meningococcal vaccination strategies to provide broad coverage across age groups and serogroups given the recent increases in IMD incidence.

Influenza vaccination in Western Australian children: Exploring the health benefits and cost savings of increased vaccine coverage in children.

Introduction: To assess potential benefits and direct healthcare cost savings with expansion of an existing childhood influenza immunisation program, we developed a dynamic transmission model for the state of Western Australia, evaluating increasing coverage in children < 5 years and routinely immunising school-aged children. Methods: A deterministic compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered age-stratified transmission model was developed and calibrated using laboratory-notification and hospitalisation data. Base case vaccine coverage estimates were derived from 2019 data and tested under moderate, low and high vaccine effectiveness settings. The impact of increased coverage on the burden of influenza, influenza-associated presentations and net costs were assessed using the transmission model and estimated health utilisation costs. Results: Under base case vaccine coverage and moderate vaccine effectiveness settings, 225,460 influenza cases are expected annually across all ages. Direct healthcare costs of influenza were estimated to be A$27,608,286 per annum, dominated by hospital costs. Net cost savings of >$A1.5 million dollars were observed for every 10 % increase in vaccine coverage in children < 5 years. Additional benefits were observed by including primary school age children (5-11 years) in the funded influenza vaccination program - a reduction in cases, presentations, hospitalisations and approximately $A4 million net costs savings were observed for every 10 % increase in coverage. The further addition of older children (12-17 years) resulted in only moderate additional net cost savings figures, compared with a 5-11year-old program alone. Net costs savings were predominantly derived by a reduction in influenza-associated hospitalisation in adults. Conclusions: Any increase in influenza vaccine coverage in children < 5 years, above a base case of 50 % coverage resulted in a substantive reduction in influenza cases, presentations, hospitalisations and net costs when applied to the West Australian population. However, the most impactful pediatric program, from both a disease prevention and costs perspective, would be one that increased vaccination coverage among primary-school aged children.

Factors Predicting Secondary Respiratory Morbidity Following Early-Life Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections: Population-Based Cohort Study.

Background: The association between early-life respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections and later respiratory morbidity is well established. However, there is limited evidence on factors that influence this risk. We examined sociodemographic and perinatal factors associated with later childhood respiratory morbidity requiring secondary care following exposure to a laboratory-confirmed RSV episode in the first 2 years. Methods: We used a probabilistically linked whole-of-population-based birth cohort including 252 287 children born in Western Australia between 2000 and 2009 with follow-up to the end of 2012. Cox proportional hazards models estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) of the association of various risk factors with the first respiratory episode for asthma, wheezing, and unspecified acute lower respiratory infection beyond the age of 2 years. Results: The analytic cohort included 4151 children with a confirmed RSV test before age 2 years. The incidence of subsequent respiratory morbidity following early-life RSV infection decreased with child age at outcome (highest incidence in 2-<4-year-olds: 41.8 per 1000 child-years; 95% CI, 37.5-46.6), increased with age at RSV infection (6-<12-month-olds: 23.6/1000 child-years; 95% CI, 19.9-27.8; 12-<24-month-olds: 22.4/1000 child-years; 95% CI, 18.2-22.7) and decreasing gestational age (50.8/1000 child-years; 95% CI, 33.5-77.2 for children born extremely preterm, <28 weeks gestation). Risk factors included age at first RSV episode (6-<12 months: aHR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.06-1.90), extreme prematurity (<28 weeks: aHR, 2.22; 95% CI, 1.40-3.53), maternal history of asthma (aHR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.04-1.70), and low socioeconomic index (aHR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.03-3.00). Conclusions: Our results suggest that in addition to preterm and young infants, children aged 12-<24 months could also be potential target groups for RSV prevention to reduce the burden of later respiratory morbidities associated with RSV.

Association between pertussis vaccination in infancy and childhood asthma: A population-based record linkage cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Asthma is among the commonest noncommunicable diseases of childhood and often occurs with other atopic comorbidities. A previous case-control study found evidence that compared to children who received acellular pertussis (aP) vaccines in early infancy, children who received one or more doses of whole-cell pertussis (wP) vaccine had lower risk of developing IgE-mediated food allergy. We hypothesized that wP vaccination in early infancy might protect against atopic asthma in childhood. METHODS: Retrospective record-linkage cohort study of children between 5 and < 15 years old and born between January 1997, and December 1999, in the Australian states of Western Australia (WA) and New South Wales (NSW), receiving wP versus aP vaccine as the first pertussis vaccine dose. The main outcome and measures were first and recurrent hospitalizations for asthma; hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed by means of Cox and Andersen and Gill models. RESULTS: 274,405 children aged between 5 and < 15 years old (78.4% NSW-born) received a first dose of either wP (67.8%) or aP vaccine before 4 months old. During the follow-up period, there were 5,905 hospitalizations for asthma among 3,955 children. The incidence rate for first hospitalization was 1.5 (95% CI 1.4-1.5) per 1,000 child-years among children receiving wP vaccine as a first dose, and 1.5 (95% CI 1.4-1.6) among those vaccinated with aP vaccine as a first dose. The adjusted HRs for those who received wP vaccine versus aP vaccine as the first dose were 1.02 (95% CI 0.94-1.12) for first hospitalizations and 1.07 (95% CI 0.95-1.2) for recurrent hospitalizations for asthma. CONCLUSIONS: We found no convincing evidence of a clinically relevant association between receipt of wP versus aP vaccines in early infancy and hospital presentations for asthma in childhood.

Ear and hearing outcomes in Aboriginal infants living in an urban Australian area: the Djaalinj Waakinj birth cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Describe the ear and hearing outcomes in Aboriginal infants in an Australian urban area. DESIGN: Aboriginal infants enrolled in the Djaalinj Waakinj prospective cohort study had ear health screenings at ages 2-4, 6-8 and 12-18 months and audiological assessment at ∼12 months of age. Sociodemographic, environmental characteristics, otoscopy, otoacoustic emissions, tympanometry and visual reinforcement audiometry data were collected. STUDY SAMPLE: 125 infants were enrolled in the study; 67 completed audiological assessment, 62, 54, and 58 of whom attended ear screenings at 2-4, 6-8 and 12-18 months. RESULTS: Of the children that attended the audiological assessment, 36.5%, 50% and 64.3% of infants had otitis media (OM) at 2-4, 6-8 and 12-18 months. Using a 10 dB correction factor, 44.8% of infants had hearing loss (HL) (≥ 25 dB HL) at ∼ 12 months of age. More males (X2=5.4 (1df, p = 0.02)) and infants with OM at audiological assessment (X2=5.8 (1df, p = 0.02)) had HL. More infants that used a pacifier at 12-18 months of age had HL (X2=4.7 (1df, p = 0.03)). CONCLUSION: Aboriginal infants in an urban area have high rates of HL and OM, which requires early surveillance and timely treatment to reduce the medical and developmental impacts of OM and HL.

Bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccination for protection against recurrent herpes labialis: a nested randomised controlled trial.

Background: Recurrences of herpes simplex virus (HSV) in the orofacial region (herpes labialis or cold sores) impact quality-of-life. We aimed to study whether the bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine can attenuate cold sore recurrences through off-target immunomodulatory effects. Methods: In this nested randomised controlled trial within the multicentre, phase 3 BRACE trial, 6828 healthcare workers were randomised in 36 sites in Australia, the Netherlands, Spain, the United Kingdom and Brazil, to receive BCG-Denmark or no BCG (1:1 ratio using a web-based procedure) and followed for 12 months with 3-monthly questionnaires. Exclusion criteria included contraindication to BCG vaccine or previous vaccination with BCG within the past year, any other live-attenuated vaccine within the last month, or any COVID-specific vaccine. The intervention group received one intradermal dose of 0.1 mL of BCG-Denmark corresponding to 2-8 x 105 colony forming units of Mycobacterium bovis, Danish strain 1331. The primary outcome was the difference in restricted mean survival time (i.e., time to first cold-sore recurrence), in participants with frequent recurrent herpes labialis (≥4 recurrences/year), analysed by intention-to-treat. Secondary outcomes addressed additional questions, including analyses in other sub-populations. Adverse events were monitored closely during the first 3 months and were reported in all participants who received one dose of study drug according to intervention received. The BRACE trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04327206. Findings: Between March 30, 2020 and February 18, 2021, 84 individuals with frequent recurrent cold sores were randomly assigned to BCG (n = 38) or control (n = 46). The average time to first cold-sore recurrence was 1.55 months longer in the BCG group (95% CI 0.27-2.82, p = 0.02) than the control group (hazard ratio 0.54, 95% CI 0.32-0.91; intention-to-treat). The beneficial effect of BCG was greater in the as-treated population (difference 1.91 months, 95% CI 0.69-3.12, p = 0.003; hazard ratio 0.45, 95% CI 0.26-0.76). In prespecified subgroup analyses, only sex modified the treatment effect (interaction p = 0.007), with benefit restricted to males. Over 12 months, a greater proportion of participants in the BCG group compared with the control group reported a decrease in duration (61% vs 21%), severity (74% vs 21%), frequency (55% vs 21%), and impact on quality of life (42% vs 15%) of cold sore recurrences. In participants who had ever had a cold sore, there was also a decrease in self-reported burden of recurrences in the BCG group. In participants who had never had a cold sore, there was an increased risk of a first episode in the BCG group (risk difference 1.4%; 95% CI 0.3-2.6%, p = 0.02). There were no safety concerns. Interpretation: BCG-Denmark vaccination had a beneficial effect on herpes labialis, particularly in males with frequent recurrences, but may increase the risk of a first cold sore. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Minderoo Foundation, Sarah and Lachlan Murdoch, the Royal Children's Hospital Foundation, Health Services Union NSW, the Peter Sowerby Foundation, SA Health, the Insurance Advisernet Foundation, the NAB Foundation, the Calvert-Jones Foundation, the Modara Pines Charitable Foundation, the UHG Foundation Pty Ltd, Epworth Healthcare, and individual donors.

Pneumococcal carriage, serotype distribution, and antimicrobial susceptibility in Papua New Guinean children vaccinated with PCV10 or PCV13 in a head-to-head trial.

BACKGROUND: Children in Papua New Guinea (PNG) are at high risk of pneumococcal infections. We investigated pneumococcal carriage rates, serotype distribution, and antimicrobial susceptibility in PNG children after vaccination with 10-valent or 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV10; PCV13). METHODS: Infants (N = 262) were randomized to receive 3 doses of PCV10 or PCV13 at 1-2-3 months of age, followed by pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccination (PPV) or no PPV at 9 months of age. Nasopharyngeal swabs (NPS) collected at ages 1, 4, 9, 10, 23 and 24 months were cultured using standard bacteriological procedures. Morphologically distinct Streptococcus pneumoniae colonies were serotyped by the Quellung reaction. Antimicrobial susceptibility was determined by Kirby-Bauer disc diffusion and minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC). RESULTS: S. pneumoniae was isolated from 883/1063 NPS collected at 1-23 months of age, including 820 serotypeable (64 different serotypes) and 144 non-serotypeable isolates. At age 23 months, 93.6% (95%CI 86.6-97.6%) of PCV10 recipients and 88.6% (95%CI 80.1-94.4%) of PCV13 recipients were pneumococcal carriers, with higher carriage of PCV10 serotypes by PCV10 recipients (19.8%, 95%CI 12.2-29.5) than PCV13 recipients (9.3%, 95%CI 4.1-17.3) (p = 0.049). There were no other statistically significant differences between PCV10 and PCV13 recipients and children receiving PPV or no PPV. Nearly half (45.6%) of carried pneumococci were non-susceptible to penicillin based on the meningitis breakpoint (MIC ≥ 0.12 µg/mL), but resistance was rare (1.1%) using the non-meningitis cut-off (MIC ≥ 8 µg/mL). Non-susceptibility to trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (SXT) was common: 23.2% of isolates showed intermediate resistance (MIC 1/19-2/38 µg/mL) and 16.9% full resistance (MIC ≥ 4/76 µg/mL). PCV serotypes 14 and 19A were commonly non-susceptible to both penicillin (14, 97%; 19A, 70%) and SXT (14, 97%; 19A, 87%). CONCLUSION: Even after PCV10 or PCV13 vaccination, children living in a high-risk setting such as PNG continue to experience high levels of pneumococcal colonization, including carriage of highly antimicrobial-resistant PCV serotypes. The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (CTN NCT01619462).

Randomized Trial of BCG Vaccine to Protect against Covid-19 in Health Care Workers.

BACKGROUND: The bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine has immunomodulatory "off-target" effects that have been hypothesized to protect against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). METHODS: In this international, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, we randomly assigned health care workers to receive the BCG-Denmark vaccine or saline placebo and followed them for 12 months. Symptomatic Covid-19 and severe Covid-19, the primary outcomes, were assessed at 6 months; the primary analyses involved the modified intention-to-treat population, which was restricted to participants with a negative test for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 at baseline. RESULTS: A total of 3988 participants underwent randomization; recruitment ceased before the planned sample size was reached owing to the availability of Covid-19 vaccines. The modified intention-to-treat population included 84.9% of the participants who underwent randomization: 1703 in the BCG group and 1683 in the placebo group. The estimated risk of symptomatic Covid-19 by 6 months was 14.7% in the BCG group and 12.3% in the placebo group (risk difference, 2.4 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.7 to 5.5; P = 0.13). The risk of severe Covid-19 by 6 months was 7.6% in the BCG group and 6.5% in the placebo group (risk difference, 1.1 percentage points; 95% CI, -1.2 to 3.5; P = 0.34); the majority of participants who met the trial definition of severe Covid-19 were not hospitalized but were unable to work for at least 3 consecutive days. In supplementary and sensitivity analyses that used less conservative censoring rules, the risk differences were similar but the confidence intervals were narrower. There were five hospitalizations due to Covid-19 in each group (including one death in the placebo group). The hazard ratio for any Covid-19 episode in the BCG group as compared with the placebo group was 1.23 (95% CI, 0.96 to 1.59). No safety concerns were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccination with BCG-Denmark did not result in a lower risk of Covid-19 among health care workers than placebo. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and others; BRACE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04327206.).

Bivalent Prefusion F Vaccine in Pregnancy to Prevent RSV Illness in Infants.

BACKGROUND: Whether vaccination during pregnancy could reduce the burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-associated lower respiratory tract illness in newborns and infants is uncertain. METHODS: In this phase 3, double-blind trial conducted in 18 countries, we randomly assigned, in a 1:1 ratio, pregnant women at 24 through 36 weeks' gestation to receive a single intramuscular injection of 120 µg of a bivalent RSV prefusion F protein-based (RSVpreF) vaccine or placebo. The two primary efficacy end points were medically attended severe RSV-associated lower respiratory tract illness and medically attended RSV-associated lower respiratory tract illness in infants within 90, 120, 150, and 180 days after birth. A lower boundary of the confidence interval for vaccine efficacy (99.5% confidence interval [CI] at 90 days; 97.58% CI at later intervals) greater than 20% was considered to meet the success criterion for vaccine efficacy with respect to the primary end points. RESULTS: At this prespecified interim analysis, the success criterion for vaccine efficacy was met with respect to one primary end point. Overall, 3682 maternal participants received vaccine and 3676 received placebo; 3570 and 3558 infants, respectively, were evaluated. Medically attended severe lower respiratory tract illness occurred within 90 days after birth in 6 infants of women in the vaccine group and 33 infants of women in the placebo group (vaccine efficacy, 81.8%; 99.5% CI, 40.6 to 96.3); 19 cases and 62 cases, respectively, occurred within 180 days after birth (vaccine efficacy, 69.4%; 97.58% CI, 44.3 to 84.1). Medically attended RSV-associated lower respiratory tract illness occurred within 90 days after birth in 24 infants of women in the vaccine group and 56 infants of women in the placebo group (vaccine efficacy, 57.1%; 99.5% CI, 14.7 to 79.8); these results did not meet the statistical success criterion. No safety signals were detected in maternal participants or in infants and toddlers up to 24 months of age. The incidences of adverse events reported within 1 month after injection or within 1 month after birth were similar in the vaccine group (13.8% of women and 37.1% of infants) and the placebo group (13.1% and 34.5%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: RSVpreF vaccine administered during pregnancy was effective against medically attended severe RSV-associated lower respiratory tract illness in infants, and no safety concerns were identified. (Funded by Pfizer; MATISSE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04424316.).

Targeted Literature Review of the Burden of Respiratory Syncytial Infection among High-Risk and Elderly Patients in Asia Pacific Region.

INTRODUCTION: The burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), which causes acute respiratory illness, is well recognized among the pediatric population but also imposes a significant risk to the elderly (age ≥ 60) and those with underlying comorbidities. The study aimed to review the most recent data on epidemiology and burden (clinical and economic) of RSV in the elderly/high-risk populations in China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Australia. METHODS: A targeted review was conducted of English, Japanese, Korean, and Chinese language articles published from 1 January 2010 to 7 October 2020 relevant for the purpose. RESULTS: A total of 881 studies were identified, and 41 were included. The median proportion of elderly patients with RSV in all adult patients with acute respiratory infection (ARI) or community acquired pneumonia was 79.78% (71.43-88.12%) in Japan, 48.00% (3.64-80.00%) in China, 41.67% (33.33-50.00%) in Taiwan, 38.61% in Australia, and 28.57% (22.76-33.33%) in South Korea. RSV was associated with a high clinical burden on those patients with comorbidities such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. In China, inpatients with ARI showed a significantly higher rate of RSV-related hospitalization than outpatients (13.22% versus 4.08%, p < 0.01). The median length of hospital stay among elderly patients with RSV was longest in Japan (30 days) and shortest in China (7 days). Mortality data varied by region with some studies reporting rates as high as 12.00% (9/75) in hospitalized elderly patients. Finally, data on the economic burden was only available for South Korea, with the median cost of a medical admission for an elderly patient with RSV being US dollar (USD) 2933. CONCLUSION: RSV infection is a major source of disease burden among elderly patients, especially in regions with aging populations. It also complicates the management of those with underlying diseases. Appropriate prevention strategies are required to reduce the burden among the adult, especially the elderly, population. Data gaps regarding economic burden of RSV infection in the Asia Pacific region indicates the need for further research to increase our understanding on the burden of this disease in this region.

Ear Portal: An urban-based ear, nose, and throat, and audiology referral telehealth portal to improve access to specialist ear-health services for children.

INTRODUCTION: Shortage of ear, nose, and throat specialists in public hospitals can result in delays in the detection and management of otitis media. This study introduced a new hospital-based telehealth service, named the Ear Portal, and investigated its role in improving access to specialist care. METHODS: The study included 87 children (aged 6 months to 6 years) referred to a tertiary children's hospital due to otitis media-related concerns. A specialist multidisciplinary team met fortnightly to review pre-recorded data and provide care plans. RESULTS: The service resulted in a median waiting time of 28 days to receive a diagnosis and care plan by the multidisciplinary team, compared to a mean waiting time of 450 days for a reference group receiving standard healthcare services. Most children (90.3%) received bilateral ear diagnosis. Normal findings were found in 43.9%. However, the majority required further ear, nose, and throat with or without audiology face-to-face follow-up due to a diagnosis of middle-ear disease, unknown hearing status, or concerns not related to ears. The mean time required for clinical assessments completion by research assistants and multidisciplinary team review was 37.6 and 5.1 min per participant, respectively. DISCUSSION: Children in the Ear Portal service received a diagnosis and care plan in a median of 28 days, which is within the clinically recommended timeframes. With sufficient clinical information, this service can provide faster access to specialist care than the standard healthcare pathway. The service can reduce the time required by the specialist to provide a diagnosis and care plan which may help increase the specialists' capacity.

Predicting the causative pathogen among children with pneumonia using a causal Bayesian network.

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia remains a leading cause of hospitalization and death among young children worldwide, and the diagnostic challenge of differentiating bacterial from non-bacterial pneumonia is the main driver of antibiotic use for treating pneumonia in children. Causal Bayesian networks (BNs) serve as powerful tools for this problem as they provide clear maps of probabilistic relationships between variables and produce results in an explainable way by incorporating both domain expert knowledge and numerical data. METHODS: We used domain expert knowledge and data in combination and iteratively, to construct, parameterise and validate a causal BN to predict causative pathogens for childhood pneumonia. Expert knowledge elicitation occurred through a series of group workshops, surveys and one-on-one meetings involving 6-8 experts from diverse domain areas. The model performance was evaluated based on both quantitative metrics and qualitative expert validation. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to investigate how the target output is influenced by varying key assumptions of a particularly high degree of uncertainty around data or domain expert knowledge. RESULTS: Designed to apply to a cohort of children with X-ray confirmed pneumonia who presented to a tertiary paediatric hospital in Australia, the resulting BN offers explainable and quantitative predictions on a range of variables of interest, including the diagnosis of bacterial pneumonia, detection of respiratory pathogens in the nasopharynx, and the clinical phenotype of a pneumonia episode. Satisfactory numeric performance has been achieved including an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.8 in predicting clinically-confirmed bacterial pneumonia with sensitivity 88% and specificity 66% given certain input scenarios (i.e., information that is available and entered into the model) and trade-off preferences (i.e., relative weightings of the consequences of false positive versus false negative predictions). We specifically highlight that a desirable model output threshold for practical use is very dependent upon different input scenarios and trade-off preferences. Three commonly encountered scenarios were presented to demonstrate the potential usefulness of the BN outputs in various clinical pictures. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first causal model developed to help determine the causative pathogen for paediatric pneumonia. We have shown how the method works and how it would help decision making on the use of antibiotics, providing insight into how computational model predictions may be translated to actionable decisions in practice. We discussed key next steps including external validation, adaptation and implementation. Our model framework and the methodological approach can be adapted beyond our context to broad respiratory infections and geographical and healthcare settings.