A Socio-Health Approach to Improve Local Disaster Resilience and Contain Secondary Crises: A Case Study in an Agricultural Community Exposed to Bushfires in Australia.

Recent large-scale disasters have exposed the interconnected nature of modern societies, exacerbating the risk of cascading impacts. Examining elements of community health status, such as social determinants of health, their perceived health status, and how they relate to disaster resilience, can illuminate alternative actions for cost-effective disaster prevention and management. Moreover, agricultural communities are essential to food security and provide a working example of the importance of mitigation in escalation of crises. To that aim, this research examines perceptions of the relationship between disaster resilience and determinants of health, including health status. Participants also reported their views on perceived vulnerable groups in their community and proposed design characteristics of more effective community disaster plans.Here investigated are these elements in a small agricultural community of Western Australia previously exposed to bushfires. A questionnaire was used based on health elements from the Social Determinants of Health described by the World Health Organization (WHO) and compared this with quantitative data describing the community health status. A mixed methods approach combining qualitative (semi-structured interview) and quantitative (closed questions using a Likert scale) tools was undertaken with a small group of community members.It was found that community connection and social capital were perceived to provide knowledge and support that enhanced individual disaster risk awareness and preparedness and improved an individual's disaster resilience. Stress and social exclusion within a community were perceived to decrease an individual's resilience to disaster. Disaster resilience was reported to be a function of good physical and mental health. To achieve effective disaster planning, community partnership in the development, education, and testing of plans and robust communication were described as essential traits in community emergency plans.

Detection of a local Mycobacterium bovis reservoir using cattle surveillance data.

The incidence of bovine tuberculosis (TB, caused by Mycobacterium bovis) in cattle has been associated with TB in badgers (Meles meles) in parts of England. The aim was to identify badger-associated M. bovis reservoirs in the Edge Area, between the High- and Low-Risk Areas for cattle TB. Data from badger TB surveys were sparse. Therefore, a definition for a local M. bovis reservoir potentially shared by cattle and badgers was developed using cattle TB surveillance data. The performance of the definition was estimated through Latent Class Analysis using badger TB survey data. Spatial units (25 km2 ) in the Edge Area were classified as having a reservoir if they had (i) at least one TB incident in at least three of the previous 7 years, (ii) at least one TB incident in a cattle herd confirmed by post-mortem tests as due to M. bovis infection and not attributable to cattle movements in the previous 2 years and (iii) more confirmed TB incidents than un-confirmed in the previous 2 years. Approximately 20% of the Edge Area was classified as having a local M. bovis reservoir using the cattle-based definition. Assuming 15% TB prevalence in Edge Area badgers, sensitivity for the local M. bovis reservoir definition varied from 25.7% [95% credible interval (CrI): 10.7%-85.1%] to 64.8% (95% CrI: 48.1%-88.0%). Specificity was 91.9% (CrI: 83.6%-97.4%). Over 90% of the local reservoir was in stable endemic TB areas identified through previous work and its spatial distribution was largely consistent with local veterinary knowledge. Uncertainty in the reservoir spatial distribution was explored through its recalculation in spatial units shifted in different directions. We recommend that the definition is re-evaluated as further data on badger infection with M. bovis become available.

Improving Disaster Data Systems to Inform Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience Building in Australia: A Comparison of Databases.

OBJECTIVE: Disaster impact databases are important resources for informing research, policy, and decision making. Therefore, understanding the underpinning methodology of data collection used by the databases, how they differ, and quality indicators of the data recorded is essential in ensuring that their use as reference points is valid. METHODS: The Australian Disaster Resilience Knowledge Hub (AIDRKH) is an open-source platform supported by government to inform disaster management practice. A comparative descriptive review of the Disaster Mapper (hosted at AIDRKH) and the international Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) was undertaken to identify differences in how Australian disasters are captured and measured. RESULTS: The results show substantial variation in identification and classification of disasters across hazard impacts and hazard types and a lack of data structure for the systematic reporting of contextual and impact variables. CONCLUSIONS: These differences may have implications for reporting, academic analysis, and thus knowledge management informing disaster prevention and response policy or plans. Consistency in reporting methods based on international classification standards is recommended to improve the validity and usefulness of this Australian database.

The importance of nitrogen for net carbon sequestration when considering natural climate solutions.

To store substantial amounts of carbon in natural climate solutions the strong interlinkages between carbon and nitrogen cycling must be considered. There are many agricultural management options for increasing soil organic carbon stocks but each approach must be evaluated in context of the full, net greenhouse gas balance. This requires a detailed understanding of the implications of increased nitrogen demand to store organic forms of carbon in soil, on potential nitrous oxide emissions in particular.

Vinasse application and cessation of burning in sugarcane management can have positive impact on soil carbon stocks.

Bioenergy crops, such as sugarcane, have the potential to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions through fossil fuel substitution. However, increased sugarcane propagation and recent management changes have raised concerns that these practices may deplete soil carbon (C) stocks, thereby limiting the net greenhouse gas benefit. In this study, we use both a measured and modelled approach to evaluate the impacts of two common sugarcane management practices on soil C sequestration potential in Brazil. We explore how transitions from conventional (mineral fertiliser/burning) to improved (vinasse application/unburned) practices influence soil C stocks in total and in physically fractionated soil down to one metre. Results suggest that vinasse application leads to an accumulation of soil C of 0.55 Mg ha-1yr-1 at 0-30 cm depth and applying unburned management led to gains of ∼0.7 Mg ha-1yr-1 at 30-60 cm depth. Soil C concentration in the Silt+Clay fraction of topsoil (0-20 cm) showed higher C content in unburned management but it did not differ under vinasse application. The CENTURY model was used to simulate the consequences of management changes beyond the temporal extent of the measurements. Simulations indicated that vinasse was not the key factor driving increases in soil C stocks but its application may be the most readily available practice to prevent the soil C losses under burned management. Furthermore, cessation of burning may increase topsoil C by 40% after ∼50 years. These are the first data comparing different sugarcane management transitions within a single area. Our findings indicate that both vinasse application and the cessation of burning can play an important role in reducing the time required for sugarcane ethanol production to reach a net C benefit (payback time).

Special Report: WADEM Climate Change Position Statement.

The World Association for Disaster and Emergency Medicine (WADEM; Madison, Wisconsin USA) is a multi-disciplinary professional association whose mission is the global improvement of prehospital and emergency health care, public health, and disaster health and preparedness. In April 2017, the biennial general meeting of the World Congress for Disaster and Emergency Medicine (WCDEM) endorsed the WADEM Climate Change Position Statement, which was subsequently published in Prehospital and Disaster Medicine in July 2017. This special report examines literature used and reviews the process of development of this Position Statement as a product of WADEM.Cuthbertson J, Archer F, Robertson A. Special report: WADEM climate change position statement. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2018;33(4):428-431.

Climate Change Impacts on Yields and Soil Carbon in Row Crop Dryland Agriculture.

Dryland agroecosystems could be a sizable sink for atmospheric carbon (C) due to their spatial extent and level of degradation, providing climate change mitigation. We examined productivity and soil C dynamics under two climate change scenarios (moderate warming, representative concentration pathway [RCP] 4.5; and high warming, RCP 8.5), using long-term experimental data and the DayCent process-based model for three sites with varying climates and soil conditions in the US High Plains. Each site included a no-till cropping intensity gradient introduced in 1985, with treatments ranging from wheat-fallow ( L.) to continuous annual cropping and perennial grass. Simulations were extended to 2100 using data from 16 global circulation models to estimate uncertainty. Simulated yields declined for all crops (up to 50% for wheat), with small changes after 2050 under RCP 4.5 and continued losses to 2100 under RCP 8.5. Of the cropped systems, continuous cropping had the highest average productivity and soil C sequestration rates (78.1 kg C ha yr from 2015 to 2045 under RCP 4.5). Any increase in soil C for cropped rotations was realized by 2050, but grassland treatments increased soil C (up to 69%) through 2100, even under RCP 8.5. Our simulations indicate that reduced frequency of summer fallow can both increase annualized yields and store more soil C. As evapotranspiration is likely to increase, reducing fallow periods without live vegetation from dryland agricultural rotations may enhance the resilience of these systems to climate change while also increasing soil C storage and mitigating carbon dioxide emissions.

Testing of a palatable bait and compatible vaccine carrier for the oral vaccination of European badgers (Meles meles) against tuberculosis.

The oral vaccination of wild badgers (Meles meles) with live Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) is one of the tools being considered for the control of bovine tuberculosis (caused by Mycobacterium bovis) in the UK. The design of a product for oral vaccination requires that numerous, and often competing, conditions are met. These include the need for a highly palatable, but physically stable bait that will meet regulatory requirements, and one which is also compatible with the vaccine formulation; in this case live BCG. In collaboration with two commercial bait companies we have developed a highly attractive and palatable bait recipe designed specifically for European badgers (Meles meles) that meets these requirements. The palatability of different batches of bait was evaluated against a standardised palatable control bait using captive badgers. The physical properties of the bait are described e.g. firmness and colour. The microbial load in the bait was assessed against European and US Pharmacopoeias. The bait was combined with an edible vaccine carrier made of hydrogenated peanut oil in which BCG vaccine was stable during bait manufacture and cold storage, demonstrating <0.5 log10 reduction in titre after 117weeks' storage at -20°C. BCG stability in bait was also evaluated at +4°C and under simulated environmental conditions (20°C, 98% Relative Humidity; RH). Finally, iophenoxic acid biomarkers were utilised as a surrogate for the BCG vaccine, to test variants of the vaccine-bait design for their ability to deliver biomarker to the gastrointestinal tract of individual animals. These data provide the first detailed description of a bait-vaccine delivery system developed specifically for the oral vaccination of badgers against Mycobacterium bovis using live BCG.

Systems approaches in global change and biogeochemistry research.

Systems approaches have great potential for application in predictive ecology. In this paper, we present a range of examples, where systems approaches are being developed and applied at a range of scales in the field of global change and biogeochemical cycling. Systems approaches range from Bayesian calibration techniques at plot scale, through data assimilation methods at regional to continental scales, to multi-disciplinary numerical model applications at country to global scales. We provide examples from a range of studies and show how these approaches are being used to address current topics in global change and biogeochemical research, such as the interaction between carbon and nitrogen cycles, terrestrial carbon feedbacks to climate change and the attribution of observed global changes to various drivers of change. We examine how transferable the methods and techniques might be to other areas of ecosystem science and ecology.