Decoupling of bird migration from the changing phenology of spring green-up.

The green-up of vegetation in spring brings a pulse of food resources that many animals track during migration. However, green-up phenology is changing with climate change, posing an immense challenge for species that time their migrations to coincide with these resource pulses. We evaluated changes in green-up phenology from 2002 to 2021 in relation to the migrations of 150 Western-Hemisphere bird species using eBird citizen science data. We found that green-up phenology has changed within bird migration routes, and yet the migrations of most species align more closely with long-term averages of green-up than with current conditions. Changing green-up strongly influenced phenological mismatches, especially for longer-distance migrants. These results reveal that bird migration may have limited flexibility to adjust to changing vegetation phenology and emphasize the mounting challenge migratory animals face in following en route resources in a changing climate.

Rare edges and abundant cores: range-wide variation in abundance in North American birds.

Understanding how the abundance of species varies across geographical ranges is central to ecology; however, few studies test hypotheses using detailed abundance estimates across the full ranges of species on a continental scale. Here, we use unprecedented, detailed estimates of breeding abundance for North American birds (eBird) to test two hypotheses for how abundance varies across species' ranges. We find widespread support for the rare-edge hypothesis-where the abundance of species declines near the range edge-reflecting both reduced occurrence and lower local abundance near range edges. By contrast, we find mixed support for the abundant-centre hypothesis-where the abundance of species peaks in the centre of the range and declines towards the edges-with limited support in conservative tests within species, but general support in among-species tests that control for unbalanced sampling and consider a broader definition of the range centre. Overall, results are consistent with a gradual decline in suitable conditions and increase in challenge towards the range edge that eventually limit the ability of populations to persist.

Deep learning with citizen science data enables estimation of species diversity and composition at continental extents.

Effective solutions to conserve biodiversity require accurate community- and species-level information at relevant, actionable scales and across entire species' distributions. However, data and methodological constraints have limited our ability to provide such information in robust ways. Herein we employ a Deep-Reasoning Network implementation of the Deep Multivariate Probit Model (DMVP-DRNets), an end-to-end deep neural network framework, to exploit large observational and environmental data sets together and estimate landscape-scale species diversity and composition at continental extents. We present results from a novel year-round analysis of North American avifauna using data from over nine million eBird checklists and 72 environmental covariates. We highlight the utility of our information by identifying critical areas of high species diversity for a single group of conservation concern, the North American wood warblers, while capturing spatiotemporal variation in species' environmental associations and interspecific interactions. In so doing, we demonstrate the type of accurate, high-resolution information on biodiversity that deep learning approaches such as DMVP-DRNets can provide and that is needed to inform ecological research and conservation decision-making at multiple scales.

An impact evaluation of conservation investments targeting long-distance migratory species.

We evaluated the impact of a philanthropic program investing in the conservation of sites along the Pacific Americas Flyway, which spans >16,000 km of coastline and is used by millions of shorebirds. Using a quasi-experimental, mixed methods approach, we estimated what would have happened to shorebird populations at 17 wintering sites without the sustained and additional investment they received. We modeled shorebird populations across the entire flyway and at sites with and without investment. Combining shorebird abundance estimates with a land-cover classification model, we used the synthetic control method to create counterfactuals for shorebird trends at the treatment sites. We found no evidence of an overall effect across three outcome variables. Species- and site-level treatment effects were heterogeneous, with a few cases showing evidence of a positive effect, including a site with a high level of overall investment. Results suggest six shorebirds declined across the entire flyway, including at many Latin American sites. However, the percentage of flyway populations present at the sites remained stable, and the percentage at the treatment sites was higher (i.e., investment sites) than at control sites. Multiple mechanisms behind our results are possible, including that investments have yet to mitigate impacts and negative impacts at other sites are driving declines at the treatment sites. A limitation of our evaluation is the sole focus on shorebird abundance and the lack of data that prohibits the inclusion of other outcome variables. Monitoring infrastructure is now in place to design a more robust and a priori shorebird evaluation framework across the entire flyway. With this framework, it will prove easier to prioritize limited dollars to result in the most positive conservation outcomes.

Evaluación del impacto de la inversión para la conservación enfocada en especies migratorias de largo recorrido Resumen Evaluamos el impacto de un programa filantrópico que invierte en la conservación de sitios a lo largo de la Ruta Migratoria Pacífico-Américas, la cual abarca >16,000 km de la línea costera y millones de aves playeras la usan. Estimamos con una estrategia cuasiexperimental y de métodos mixtos lo que habría pasado con las poblaciones de estas aves en 17 sitios invernales sin la inversión adicional y continua que recibieron. Modelamos estas poblaciones en toda la ruta y en sitios con y sin inversión. Combinamos las estimaciones de aves playeras con el modelo de clasificación de la cobertura del suelo y usamos el método de control sintético para crear contrafactuales para las tendencias de las aves playeras en sitios de tratamiento. No encontramos evidencia alguna de un efecto generalizado en las tres variables de los resultados. Los efectos del tratamiento de especies y de sitio fueron heterogéneos, con unos cuantos casos que mostraron evidencia de un efecto positivo, incluido un sitio con un nivel elevado de inversión general. Los resultados sugieren que seis especies de aves playeras declinaron a lo largo de toda la ruta, incluyendo en varios sitios de América Latina. Sin embargo, el porcentaje de poblaciones de la ruta presentes en los sitios permaneció estable y el porcentaje en los sitios de tratamiento (sitios de inversión) fue más elevado que en los sitios control. Muchos mecanismos son posibles detrás de nuestros resultados, incluidas las inversiones que todavía no han mitigado impactos y los impactos negativos en otros sitios que están causando las declinaciones en los sitios de tratamiento. Una limitación en nuestra evaluación es el enfoque único en la abundancia de aves playeras y la falta de datos que impiden la inclusión de otras variables de los resultados. El monitoreo de la infraestructura ahora está en una posición en la que puede diseñar un marco de evaluación más robusto y a priori de las aves playeras a lo largo de toda la ruta. Con este marco, será más fácil priorizar los dólares limitados para que los resultados de conservación sean lo más positivos posible.

Estimates of species-level tolerance of urban habitat in North American birds.

Species vary in their responses to urban habitat; most species avoid these environments, whereas others tolerate or even thrive in them. To better characterize the extent to which species vary in their responses to urban habitat (from this point forwards "urban tolerance"), we used several methods to quantify these responses at a continental scale across all birds. Using open access community science-derived data from the eBird Status and Trends Products and two different types of high-resolution geospatial data that quantify urbanization of landscapes, we calculated urban tolerance for 432 species with breeding ranges that overlap large cities in Canada or the USA. We developed six different calculations to characterize species-level urban tolerance, allowing us to assess how each species' relative abundance across their breeding range varied with estimates of urban habitat use and intensity. We assessed correlations among these six indices, then compressed the two best-performing indices into a single principal component (multivariate urban tolerance index) that captured variation in urban tolerance among species. We assessed the accuracy of our single and multivariate urban tolerance indices using 24 test species that have been well characterized for their tolerance or avoidance of the urban habitat, as well as with previously published, independent urban tolerance estimates. Here, we provide this new dataset of species-level urban tolerance estimates that improves upon previous metrics by incorporating continental-scale, continuous estimates that better differentiate species' tolerance of urban habitat compared with existing, categorical methods. These refined metrics can be used to test hypotheses that link ecological, life history, and behavioral traits to avian urban tolerance. The dataset is licensed as CC-By Attribution 4.0 International. Users must appropriately cite the data paper and dataset if used in publications and scientific presentations.

Citizen science reveals waterfowl responses to extreme winter weather.

Global climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events (ECEs) which may be especially detrimental during late-winter when many species are surviving on scarce resources. However, monitoring animal populations relative to ECEs is logistically challenging. Crowd-sourced datasets may provide opportunity to monitor species' responses to short-term chance phenomena such as ECEs. We used 14 years of eBird-a global citizen science initiative-to examine distribution changes for seven wintering waterfowl species across North America in response to recent extreme winter polar vortex disruptions. To validate inferences from eBird, we compared eBird distribution changes against locational data from 362 GPS-tagged Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) in the Mississippi Flyway. Distributional shifts between eBird and GPS-tagged Mallards were similar following an ECE in February 2021. In general, the ECE affected continental waterfowl population distributions; however, responses were variable across species and flyways. Waterfowl distributions tended to stay near wintering latitudes or moved north at lesser distances compared with non-ECE years, suggesting preparedness for spring migration was a stronger "pull" than extreme weather was a "push" pressure. Surprisingly, larger-bodied waterfowl with grubbing foraging strategies (i.e., geese) delayed their northward range shift during ECE years, whereas smaller-bodied ducks were less affected. Lastly, wetland obligate species shifted southward during ECE years. Collectively, these results suggest specialized foraging strategies likely related to resource limitations, but not body size, necessitate movement from extreme late-winter weather in waterfowl. Our results demonstrate eBird's potential to monitor population-level effects of weather events, especially severe ECEs. eBird and other crowd-sourced datasets can be valuable to identify species which are adaptable or vulnerable to ECEs and thus, begin to inform conservation policy and management to combat negative effects of global climate change.

Leveraging community science data for population assessments during a pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted field research programs, making conservation and management decision-making more challenging. However, it may be possible to conduct population assessments using integrated models that combine community science data with existing data from structured surveys. We developed a space-time integrated model to characterize spatial and temporal variability in population distribution. We fit our integrated model to 10 years of eBird (2010-2020) and 9 years of aerial survey (2010-2019) Mottled Duck count data to forecast 2020 population size along the western Gulf Coast of Texas and Louisiana. Estimates of Mottled Duck abundance were similar in magnitude to estimates calculated using previous methods but were more precise and showed evidence of a declining population. The spatial distribution for Mottled Ducks each year was characterized by several concentrations of relatively high abundance, although the location of these abundance "hotspots" varied over time. Expected abundance was higher for areas with a higher proportion of area covered by marsh habitat. By leveraging large-scale community science data, we were able to conduct a population assessment despite the disruption in structured surveys caused by the pandemic. As participation in community science platforms continues to increase, we anticipate modeling frameworks, like the integrated model we developed here, will become increasingly useful for informing conservation and management decision-making.

Seasonal abundance and survival of North America's migratory avifauna determined by weather radar.

Avian migration is one of Earth's largest processes of biomass transport, involving billions of birds. We estimated continental biomass flows of nocturnal avian migrants across the contiguous United States using a network of 143 weather radars. We show that, relative to biomass leaving in autumn, proportionally more biomass returned in spring across the southern United States than across the northern United States. Neotropical migrants apparently achieved higher survival during the combined migration and non-breeding period, despite an average three- to fourfold longer migration distance, compared with a more northern assemblage of mostly temperate-wintering migrants. Additional mortality expected with longer migration distances was probably offset by high survival in the (sub)tropics. Nearctic-Neotropical migrants relying on a 'higher survivorship' life-history strategy may be particularly sensitive to variations in survival on the overwintering grounds, highlighting the need to identify and conserve important non-breeding habitats.

Estimating freshwater turtle mortality rates and population declines following hook ingestion.

Freshwater turtle populations are susceptible to declines following small increases in the mortality of adults, making it essential to identify and understand potential threats. Freshwater turtles ingest fish hooks associated with recreational angling, and this is likely a problem because hook ingestion is a source of additive mortality for sea turtles. We used a Bayesian-modeling framework, observed rates of hook ingestion by freshwater turtles, and mortality of sea turtles from hook ingestion to examine the probability that a freshwater turtle in a given population ingests a hook and subsequently dies from it. We used the results of these analyses and previously published life-history data to simulate the effects of hook ingestion on population growth for 3 species of freshwater turtle. In our simulation, the probability that an individual turtle ingests a hook and dies as a result was 1.2-11%. Our simulation results suggest that this rate of mortality from hook ingestion is sufficient to cause population declines. We believe we have identified fish-hook ingestion as a serious yet generally overlooked threat to the viability of freshwater turtle populations.

Updating movement estimates for American black ducks (Anas rubripes).

Understanding migratory connectivity for species of concern is of great importance if we are to implement management aimed at conserving them. New methods are improving our understanding of migration; however, banding (ringing) data is by far the most widely available and accessible movement data for researchers. Here, we use band recovery data for American black ducks (Anas rubripes) from 1951-2011 and analyze their movement among seven management regions using a hierarchical Bayesian framework. We showed that black ducks generally exhibit flyway fidelity, and that many black ducks, regardless of breeding region, stopover or overwinter on the Atlantic coast of the United States. We also show that a non-trivial portion of the continental black duck population either does not move at all or moves to the north during the fall migration (they typically move to the south). The results of this analysis will be used in a projection modeling context to evaluate how habitat or harvest management actions in one region would propagate throughout the continental population of black ducks. This analysis may provide a guide for future research and help inform management efforts for black ducks as well as other migratory species.