Indefinite Anticoagulant Therapy for First Unprovoked Venous Thromboembolism : A Cost-Effectiveness Study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical practice guidelines recommend indefinite anticoagulation for a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE). OBJECTIVE: To estimate the benefit-harm tradeoffs of indefinite anticoagulation in patients with a first unprovoked VTE. DESIGN: Markov modeling study. DATA SOURCES: Systematic reviews and meta-analyses for the long-term risks and case-fatality rates of recurrent VTE and major bleeding. Published literature for costs, quality of life, and other clinical events. TARGET POPULATION: Patients with a first unprovoked VTE who have completed 3 to 6 months of initial anticoagulant treatment. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: Canadian health care public payer. INTERVENTION: Indefinite anticoagulation with direct oral anticoagulants. OUTCOME MEASURES: Recurrent VTE events, major bleeding events, costs in 2022 Canadian dollars (CAD), and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: When compared with discontinuing anticoagulation after initial treatment in a hypothetical cohort of 1000 patients aged 55 years, indefinite anticoagulation prevented 368 recurrent VTE events, which included 14 fatal pulmonary emboli, but induced an additional 114 major bleeding events, which included 30 intracranial hemorrhages and 11 deaths from bleeding. Indefinite anticoagulation cost CAD $16 014 more per person and did not increase QALYs (-0.075 per person). RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Model results were most sensitive to the case-fatality rate of major bleeding and the annual risk for major bleeding during extended anticoagulation. LIMITATION: The model assumed that risks for recurrent VTE and major bleeding measured in clinical trials at 1 year remained constant during extended anticoagulation. CONCLUSION: Clinicians should use shared decision making to incorporate individual patient preferences and values when considering treatment duration for unprovoked VTE. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Augmented Intelligence for Clinical Discovery in Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy Using Outlier Analysis.

Objectives Clinical discoveries are heralded by observing unique and unusual clinical cases. The effort of identifying such cases rests on the shoulders of busy clinicians. We assess the feasibility and applicability of an augmented intelligence framework to accelerate the rate of clinical discovery in preeclampsia and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy-an area that has seen little change in its clinical management. Methods We conducted a retrospective exploratory outlier analysis of participants enrolled in the folic acid clinical trial (FACT, N=2,301) and the Ottawa and Kingston birth cohort (OaK, N=8,085). We applied two outlier analysis methods: extreme misclassification contextual outlier and isolation forest point outlier. The extreme misclassification contextual outlier is based on a random forest predictive model for the outcome of preeclampsia in FACT and hypertensive disorder of pregnancy in OaK. We defined outliers in the extreme misclassification approach as mislabelled observations with a confidence level of more than 90%. Within the isolation forest approach, we defined outliers as observations with an average path length z score less or equal to -3, or more or equal to 3. Content experts reviewed the identified outliers and determined if they represented a potential novelty that could conceivably lead to a clinical discovery. Results In the FACT study, we identified 19 outliers using the isolation forest algorithm and 13 outliers using the random forest extreme misclassification approach. We determined that three (15.8%) and 10 (76.9%) were potential novelties, respectively. Out of 8,085 participants in the OaK study, we identified 172 outliers using the isolation forest algorithm and 98 outliers using the random forest extreme misclassification approach; four (2.3%) and 32 (32.7%), respectively, were potential novelties. Overall, the outlier analysis part of the augmented intelligence framework identified a total of 302 outliers. These were subsequently reviewed by content experts, representing the human part of the augmented intelligence framework. The clinical review determined that 49 of the 302 outliers represented potential novelties.  Conclusions Augmented intelligence using extreme misclassification outlier analysis is a feasible and applicable approach for accelerating the rate of clinical discoveries. The use of an extreme misclassification contextual outlier analysis approach has resulted in a higher proportion of potential novelties than using the more traditional point outlier isolation forest approach. This finding was consistent in both the clinical trial and real-world cohort study data. Using augmented intelligence through outlier analysis has the potential to speed up the process of identifying potential clinical discoveries. This approach can be replicated across clinical disciplines and could exist within electronic medical records systems to automatically identify outliers within clinical notes to clinical experts.

Residual pulmonary vascular obstruction and recurrence after acute pulmonary embolism: a systematic review and meta-analysis of individual participant data.

We aimed to assess the relationship between residual pulmonary vascular obstruction (RPVO) on planar lung scan after completion of at least 3 months of anticoagulant therapy for acute pulmonary embolism (PE) and the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) or death due to PE one year after treatment discontinuation. The systematic review was registered with the International Prospective Registry of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO: CRD42017081080). The primary outcome measure was to generate a pooled estimate of the rate of recurrent VTE at one year in patient with RPVO diagnosed on planar lung scan after discontinuation of at least 3 months of anticoagulant treatment for an acute PE. Individual data were obtained for 809 patients. RPVO (ie, obstruction >0%) was found in 407 patients (50.3%) after a median of 6.6 months of anticoagulant therapy for a first acute PE. Recurrent VTE or death due to PE occurred in 114 patients (14.1%), for an annual risk of 6.4% (95% confidence interval, 4.7%-8.6%). Out of the 114 recurrent events, 63 occurred within one year after discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy corresponding to a risk of 8.1% (6.4%-9.8%) at 1 year. The risk of recurrent VTE at one year was 5.8% (4.4-7.2) in participants with RPVO <5%, vs 11.7% (9.5-13.8) in participants with RPVO ≥5%. RPVO is a significant predictor of the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism. However, the risk of recurrent events remains too high in patients without residual perfusion defect for it to be used as a stand-alone test to decide on anticoagulation discontinuation.

Performance and Head-to-Head Comparison of Three Clinical Models to Predict Occurrence of Postthrombotic Syndrome: A Validation Study.

OBJECTIVE: The SOX-PTS, Amin, and Méan models are three different clinical prediction scores stratifying the risk for postthrombotic syndrome (PTS) development in patients with acute deep vein thrombosis (DVT) of the lower limbs. Herein, we aimed to assess and compare these scores in the same cohort of patients. METHODS: We retrospectively applied the three scores in a cohort of 181 patients (196 limbs) who participated in the SAVER pilot trial for an acute DVT. Patients were stratified into PTS risk groups using positivity thresholds for high-risk patients as proposed in the derivation studies. All patients were assessed for PTS 6 months after index DVT using the Villalta scale. We calculated the predictive accuracy for PTS and area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve for each model. RESULTS: The Méan model was the most sensitive (sensitivity 87.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 77.2-94.5) with the highest negative predictive value (87.5%; 95% CI: 76.8-94.4) for PTS. The SOX-PTS was the most specific score (specificity 97.5%; 95% CI: 92.7-99.5) with the highest positive predictive value (72.7%; 95% CI: 39.0-94.0). The SOX-PTS and Méan models performed well for PTS prediction (AUROC: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.65-0.80 and 0.74; 95% CI: 0.67-0.82), whereas the Amin model did not (AUROC: 0.58; 95% CI: 0.49-0.67). CONCLUSION: Our data support that the SOX-PTS and Méan models have good accuracy to stratify the risk for PTS.

Onset of labor and use of analgesia in women using thromboprophylaxis with 2 doses of low-molecular-weight heparin: insights from the Highlow study.

BACKGROUND: Peripartum management of women using low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) varies widely. Minimum time intervals are required between LMWH injection and neuraxial procedure, and they differ by dose. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to describe the onset of labor and use of analgesia in women using LMWH and to compare practices between intermediate-dose and low-dose LMWH. METHODS: In the Highlow study (NCT01828697), 1110 women were randomized to intermediate-dose or low-dose LMWH and were instructed to discontinue LMWH when labor commenced unplanned or 24 hours prior to planned delivery. The required time interval since last injection to receive a neuraxial procedure was ≥24 hours for intermediate-dose LMWH or ≥12 hours for low-dose LMWH. RESULTS: In total, 1018 women had an ongoing pregnancy for ≥24 weeks. Onset of labor was spontaneous in 198 of 509 (39%) women on intermediate-dose LMWH and in 246 of 509 (49%) on low-dose LMWH. With unplanned onset, a neuraxial procedure was performed in 37% on intermediate-dose and in 48% on low-dose LMWH (risk difference -11%, 95% CI -20% to -2%). Based on time interval, 61% on intermediate-dose and 82% on low-dose LMWH were eligible for a neuraxial procedure. With planned onset, 68% on intermediate-dose and 66% on low-dose LMWH received a neuraxial procedure, whereas 81% and 93%, respectively, were eligible for a neuraxial procedure (risk difference -13%, 95% CI -18% to -8%). CONCLUSION: With spontaneous onset of labor, neuraxial procedures were performed less often in women using intermediate-dose LMWH. Irrespective of onset, fewer women on intermediate-dose LMWH than those on low-dose LMWH were eligible for neuraxial procedures based on required time intervals since the last LMWH injection.

The risk of major bleeding in patients with factor V Leiden or prothrombin G20210A gene mutation while on extended anticoagulant treatment for venous thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND: Thrombophilia predisposes to venous thromboembolism (VTE) because of acquired or hereditary factors. Among them, it has been suggested that gene mutations of the factor V Leiden (FVL) or prothrombin G20210A mutation (PGM) might reduce the risk of bleeding, but little data exist for patients treated using anticoagulants. OBJECTIVES: To assess whether thrombophilia is protective against bleeding. METHODS: This multicentre, multinational, prospective cohort study evaluated adults receiving long-term anticoagulants after a VTE event. We analyzed the incidence of major bleeding as the primary outcome, according to the genotype for FVL and PGM (wild-type and heterozygous/homozygous carriers). RESULTS: Of 2260 patients with genotype testing, during a median follow-up of 3 years, 106 patients experienced a major bleeding event (17 intracranial and 7 fatal). Among 439 carriers of FVL, 19 experienced major bleeding and there were no differences between any mutation vs wild-type (hazard ratio [HR], 0.89 [0.53-1.49]; p = .66). The comparison of major bleeding events between the 158 patients with any-PGM mutation (heterozygous or homozygous) vs wild-type also showed a nonstatistically significant difference with HR of 0.53 (0.19-1.43), p = .21. However, multivariate analysis demonstrated that major bleeds or clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding were statistically less likely for patients with either FVL and/or PGM compared with patients with both wild-type factor V and prothrombin genes (HR, 0.73; 95% CI = 0.55-0.97; p = .03). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that thrombophilia, defined as the presence of either FVL or the prothrombin G20210A mutation, is related with a lower rate of major/clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding while on anticoagulants in the extended treatment for VTE.

Role of statins in the prevention of post-thrombotic syndrome after a deep vein thrombosis event: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Post-thrombotic syndrome (PTS) is the most frequent long-term complication of deep vein thrombosis. Apart from anticoagulation, there are no medications, procedures, devices, or lifestyle changes that effectively prevent PTS. There is a growing interest in the potential protective effects of statins for the prevention of PTS. OBJECTIVE: To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis on the role of statins to prevent PTS after a DVT event. METHODS: We searched the MEDLINE(R) ALL, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Scopus from inception to April 5, 2022. The main concepts searched were "statins" and "post thrombotic syndrome." There was no language restriction. The main outcome measure was the incidence rate ratio (IRR) for PTS associated with exposure to statins. RESULTS: Of 1971 screened records, 5 studies were included in the meta-analysis (2 retrospective cohorts and 3 randomized controlled trials [RCTs]). The pooled incidence of PTS was 34.8% per patient-year (95% CI, 9.5-127.4) in patients receiving a statin and 41.6% per patient-year (95% CI, 13.2-132) in controls. Exposure to statins was associated with a significantly decreased risk of PTS (IRR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.63-0.96, I2 = 0%). Meta-analysis of the 2 retrospective cohorts found a significant reduction in the risk of developing PTS (IRR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.51-0.91), whereas meta-analysis of RCTs showed no reduction in PTS occurrence (IRR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.68-1.25). CONCLUSIONS: Although this systematic review suggests that statins may reduce PTS incidence by 22% after deep vein thrombosis, meta-analysis of RCTs showed no risk reduction. Confirmation of the efficacy of statins on the prevention of PTS should be assessed in larger RCTs.

Intermediate-dose versus low-dose low-molecular-weight heparin in pregnant and post-partum women with a history of venous thromboembolism (Highlow study): an open-label, multicentre, randomised, controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Pregnancy-related venous thromboembolism is a leading cause of maternal morbidity and mortality, and thromboprophylaxis is indicated in pregnant and post-partum women with a history of venous thromboembolism. The optimal dose of low-molecular-weight heparin to prevent recurrent venous thromboembolism in pregnancy and the post-partum period is uncertain. METHODS: In this open-label, randomised, controlled trial (Highlow), pregnant women with a history of venous thromboembolism were recruited from 70 hospitals in nine countries (the Netherlands, France, Ireland, Belgium, Norway, Denmark, Canada, the USA, and Russia). Women were eligible if they were aged 18 years or older with a history of objectively confirmed venous thromboembolism, and with a gestational age of 14 weeks or less. Eligible women were randomly assigned (1:1), before 14 weeks of gestational age, using a web-based system and permuted block randomisation (block size of six), stratified by centre, to either weight-adjusted intermediate-dose or fixed low-dose low-molecular-weight heparin subcutaneously once daily until 6 weeks post partum. The primary efficacy outcome was objectively confirmed venous thromboembolism (ie, deep-vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, or unusual site venous thrombosis), as determined by an independent central adjudication committee, in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population (ie, all women randomly assigned to treatment). The primary safety outcome was major bleeding which included antepartum, early post-partum (within 24 h after delivery), and late post-partum major bleeding (24 h or longer after delivery until 6 weeks post partum), assessed in all women who received at least one dose of assigned treatment and had a known end of treatment date. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01828697, and is now complete. FINDINGS: Between April 24, 2013, and Oct 31, 2020, 1339 pregnant women were screened for eligibility, of whom 1110 were randomly assigned to weight-adjusted intermediate-dose (n=555) or fixed low-dose (n=555) low-molecular-weight heparin (ITT population). Venous thromboembolism occurred in 11 (2%) of 555 women in the weight-adjusted intermediate-dose group and in 16 (3%) of 555 in the fixed low-dose group (relative risk [RR] 0·69 [95% CI 0·32-1·47]; p=0·33). Venous thromboembolism occurred antepartum in five (1%) women in the intermediate-dose group and in five (1%) women in the low-dose group, and post partum in six (1%) women and 11 (2%) women. On-treatment major bleeding in the safety population (N=1045) occurred in 23 (4%) of 520 women in the intermediate-dose group and in 20 (4%) of 525 in the low-dose group (RR 1·16 [95% CI 0·65-2·09]). INTERPRETATION: In women with a history of venous thromboembolism, weight-adjusted intermediate-dose low-molecular-weight heparin during the combined antepartum and post-partum periods was not associated with a lower risk of recurrence than fixed low-dose low-molecular-weight heparin. These results indicate that low-dose low-molecular-weight heparin for thromboprophylaxis during pregnancy is the appropriate dose for the prevention of pregnancy-related recurrent venous thromboembolism. FUNDING: French Ministry of Health, Health Research Board Ireland, GSK/Aspen, and Pfizer.

Recurrence after stopping anticoagulants in women with combined oral contraceptive-associated venous thromboembolism: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

The risk of recurrence after discontinuation of anticoagulation for a combined oral contraceptive (COC)-associated venous thromboembolism (VTE) is unclear. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the incidence of recurrent VTE among women with COC-associated VTE, unprovoked VTE and to compare the incidence of recurrent VTE between the two groups. The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Embase Classic +Embase and Medline ALL to July 2020 and citations from included studies were searched. Randomized controlled trials, prospective cohort studies and meta-analyses of these study types were selected. The analysis was conducted by random-effects model. Nineteen studies were identified including 1537 women [5828 person-years (PY)] with COC-associated VTE and 1974 women (7798 PY) with unprovoked VTE. Studies were at low risk of bias. The incidence rate of VTE recurrence was 1.22/100 PY [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.92-1.62, I2  = 6%] in women with COC-associated VTE, 3.89/100 PY (95% CI 2.93-5.17, I2  = 74%) in women with unprovoked VTE and the unadjusted incidence rate ratio was 0.34 (95% CI 0.26-0.46, I2  = 3%). The recurrence risk in women after COC-associated VTE is low and lower than after an unprovoked VTE.

Predicting major bleeding during extended anticoagulation for unprovoked or weakly provoked venous thromboembolism.

No clinical prediction model has been specifically developed or validated to identify patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) who are at high risk of major bleeding during extended anticoagulation. In a prospective multinational cohort study of patients with unprovoked VTE receiving extended anticoagulation after completing ≥3 months of initial treatment, we derived a new clinical prediction model using a multivariable Cox regression model based on 22 prespecified candidate predictors for the primary outcome of major bleeding. This model was then compared with modified versions of 5 existing clinical scores. A total of 118 major bleeding events occurred in 2516 patients (annual risk, 1.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.4-2.1). The incidences of major bleeding events per 100 person-years in high-risk and non-high-risk patients, respectively, were 3.9 (95% CI, 3.0-5.1) and 1.1 (0.8-1.4) using the newly derived creatinine, hemoglobin, age, and use of antiplatelet agent (CHAP) model; 3.3 (2.6-4.1) and 1.0 (0.7-1.3) using modified ACCP score, 5.3 (0.6-19.2) and 1.7 (1.4-2.0) using modified RIETE score, 3.1 (2.3-3.9) and 1.1 (0.9-1.5) using modified VTE-BLEED score, 5.2 (3.3-7.8) and 1.5 (1.2-1.8) using modified HAS-BLED score, and 4.8 (1.3-12.4) and 1.7 (1.4-2.0) using modified outpatient bleeding index score. Modified versions of the ACCP, VTE-BLEED, and HAS-BLED scores help identify patients with unprovoked VTE who are at high risk of major bleeding and should be considered for discontinuation of anticoagulation after 3 to 6 months of initial treatment. The CHAP model may further improve estimation of bleeding risk by using continuous predictor variables, but external validation is required before its implementation in clinical practice.

Prevention of post-thrombotic syndrome with rosuvastatin: A multicenter randomized controlled pilot trial (SAVER).

BACKGROUND: Post-thrombotic syndrome (PTS) is one of the most frequent complications of venous thromboembolism (VTE) leading to considerable morbidity and cost. Apart from appropriate anticoagulation, there is no drug or medical intervention that helps to prevent PTS. We conducted a multicenter randomized controlled trial to determine whether rosuvastatin can prevent PTS. METHODS: 312 patients receiving standard anticoagulation for a newly diagnosed VTE were randomly allocated to adjuvant rosuvastatin 20 mg once daily for 180 days (n = 155) or no rosuvastatin (n = 157). At the last study visit (Day 180 ± 21), an independent observer who was blinded to study treatment performed a PTS assessment using the Villalta scale. The primary clinical outcome of the trial was mean Villalta score at Day 180. We also explored the presence of PTS as defined by Villalta score > 4 at Day 180. Patients mean age was 46.7 ± 10.8 years, 55.8% were female. RESULTS: At Day 180, the Villalta score was 3.5 ± 0.3 in the rosuvastatin arm vs. 3.3 ± 0.3 in the control arm (p = 0.59), and presence of PTS (Villalta >4) was 29.7% in the rosuvastatin arm vs. 25.5% in the control arm (p = 0.41). Secondary analyses showed no difference between trial arms for presence of severe PTS at Day 180 (2.0% vs. 2.7%, p = 1) and for changes in Villalta score between baseline and Day 180 (-3.7 ± 4.4 vs. -4.0 ± 5.0, p = 0.59). CONCLUSION: This randomized controlled pilot trial did not demonstrate efficacy of rosuvastatin to reduce Villalta score. Further studies with longer duration of exposure to rosuvastatin are needed. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02679664.

External Validation of the Patient-Reported Villalta Scale for the Diagnosis of Postthrombotic Syndrome.

INTRODUCTION: The Villalta scale is the endorsed tool to diagnose and grade the severity of postthrombotic syndrome (PTS); however, assessing presence and severity of PTS is time-consuming and relies on both the clinician and patient's assessments. The patient-reported Villalta scale version 2 (PRV2) is a visually assisted form that enables patients to self-assess presence and severity of PTS. Herein, we report on external validation of this tool. METHODS: We assessed the agreement and kappa values of PRV2 to diagnose and assess severity of PTS compared with the original Villalta score in a cohort of 181 patients (196 limbs) who participated in the SAVER pilot randomized control trial. Presence of PTS was defined as PRV2 ≥5 or a Villalta score ≥5. RESULTS: PTS prevalence was 42% using PRV2 and 33% using the Villalta scale. The corresponding kappa and percentage agreement were 0.60 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.49-0.71) and 81% (95% CI: 76-87), respectively. Kappa values and percentage agreements between PRV2 and Villalta scale increased with increasing severity of PTS. The sensitivity of PRV2 to detect PTS of any severity was 84% (95% CI: 73-92) with a specificity of 79% (95% CI: 71-86). CONCLUSION: We conclude that the PRV2 is an acceptable tool for diagnosing and grading the severity of PTS.

Statins for venous event reduction in patients with venous thromboembolism: A multicenter randomized controlled pilot trial assessing feasibility.

BACKGROUND: Statins may reduce the risk for recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE); however, no randomized trials have explored this hypothesis. We performed a pilot randomized trial to determine feasibility of recruitment for a larger trial of secondary VTE prevention with rosuvastatin. METHODS: Patients with a newly diagnosed symptomatic proximal deep vein thrombosis and/or pulmonary embolism, receiving standard anticoagulation, were randomly allocated to adjuvant rosuvastatin 20 mg once daily for 180 days or no rosuvastatin for 6 months. RESULTS: Between November 2016 and December 2019, 3391 patients were assessed for eligibility in six centers. Of these patients, 1347 (39.7%) were eligible and approached for participation in the trial and 312 (23.1%) were randomized. The mean rate of randomization was 8.2 ± 4.3 patients per month. During follow-up, five recurrent VTE events were observed, three (1.9%) in the rosuvastatin group (two pulmonary embolism, one deep vein thrombosis), and two (1.3%) in the control group (two pulmonary embolism; P = 0.68). One major arterial event occurred in the rosuvastatin arm and none in the control arm (0.6% vs. 0%, P = 0.50). CONCLUSION: This pilot trial supports the feasibility of a larger scale randomized controlled trial to determine the efficacy of adjuvant rosuvastatin for the secondary prevention of VTE.

Long-Term Risk of Major Bleeding after Discontinuing Anticoagulation for Unprovoked Venous Thromboembolism: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The long-term risk of major bleeding after discontinuing anticoagulant therapy for a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) is uncertain. OBJECTIVES: To determine the incidence of major bleeding up to 5 years after discontinuing anticoagulation for a first unprovoked VTE. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane CENTRAL (from inception to January 2021) to identify relevant randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and prospective cohort studies reporting major bleeding after discontinuing anticoagulation in patients with a first unprovoked or weakly provoked VTE who had completed (IMAGE_)3 months of initial treatment. Unpublished data on major bleeding events and person-years were obtained from authors of included studies to calculate study-level incidence rates. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to pool results across studies. RESULTS: Of 1,123 records identified by the search, 20 studies (17 RCTs) and 8,740 patients were included in the analysis. During 13,011 person-years of follow-up after discontinuing anticoagulation, the pooled incidence of major bleeding (n = 41) and fatal bleeding (n = 7) per 100 person-years was 0.35 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.20-0.54) and 0.09 (95% CI: 0.05-0.15). The 5-year cumulative incidence of major bleeding was of 1.0% (95% CI: 0.4-2.4%). The case-fatality rate of major bleeding after discontinuing anticoagulation was 19.9% (95% CI: 10.6-31.1%). CONCLUSION: The risk of major bleeding once anticoagulants are discontinued in patients with a first unprovoked VTE is not zero. Estimates from this study can help clinicians counsel patients about the incremental risk of major bleeding with extended anticoagulation to guide decision making about treatment duration for unprovoked VTE.

Risk for Recurrent Venous Thromboembolism in Patients With Subsegmental Pulmonary Embolism Managed Without Anticoagulation : A Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of pulmonary embolism has been increasing, but its case-fatality rate is decreasing, suggesting a lesser severity of illness. The clinical importance of patients with pulmonary embolism isolated to the subsegmental vessels is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine the rate of recurrent venous thromboembolism in patients with subsegmental pulmonary embolism managed without anticoagulation. DESIGN: Multicenter prospective cohort study. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01455818). SETTING: Eighteen sites between February 2011 and February 2021. PATIENTS: Patients with isolated subsegmental pulmonary embolism. INTERVENTION: At diagnosis, patients underwent bilateral lower-extremity venous ultrasonography, which was repeated 1 week later if results were negative. Patients without deep venous thrombosis did not receive anticoagulant therapy. MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome was recurrent venous thromboembolism during the 90-day follow-up period. RESULTS: Recruitment was stopped prematurely because the predefined stopping rule was met after 292 of a projected 300 patients were enrolled. Of the 266 patients included in the primary analysis, the primary outcome occurred in 8 patients, for a cumulative incidence of 3.1% (95% CI, 1.6% to 6.1%) over the 90-day follow-up. The incidence of recurrent venous thromboembolism was 2.1% (CI, 0.8% to 5.5%) and 5.7% (CI, 2.2% to 14.4%) over the 90-day follow-up in patients with single and multiple isolated subsegmental pulmonary embolism, respectively. No patients had a fatal recurrent pulmonary embolism. LIMITATION: The study was restricted to patients with low-risk subsegmental pulmonary embolism. CONCLUSION: Overall, patients with subsegmental pulmonary embolism who did not have proximal deep venous thrombosis had a higher-than-expected rate of recurrent venous thromboembolism. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada and French Ministry of Health Programme Hospitalier de Recherche Clinique.

Long-Term Risk for Major Bleeding During Extended Oral Anticoagulant Therapy for First Unprovoked Venous Thromboembolism : A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The long-term risk for major bleeding in patients receiving extended (beyond the initial 3 to 6 months) anticoagulant therapy for a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) is uncertain. PURPOSE: To determine the incidence of major bleeding during extended anticoagulation of up to 5 years among patients with a first unprovoked VTE, overall, and in clinically important subgroups. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials from inception to 23 July 2021. STUDY SELECTION: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and prospective cohort studies reporting major bleeding among patients with a first unprovoked VTE who were to receive oral anticoagulation for a minimum of 6 additional months after completing at least 3 months of initial anticoagulant treatment. DATA EXTRACTION: Two reviewers independently abstracted data and assessed study quality. Unpublished data required for analyses were obtained from authors of included studies. DATA SYNTHESIS: Among the 14 RCTs and 13 cohort studies included in the analysis, 9982 patients received a vitamin K antagonist (VKA) and 7220 received a direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC). The incidence of major bleeding per 100 person-years was 1.74 events (95% CI, 1.34 to 2.20 events) with VKAs and 1.12 events (CI, 0.72 to 1.62 events) with DOACs. The 5-year cumulative incidence of major bleeding with VKAs was 6.3% (CI, 3.6% to 10.0%). Among patients receiving either a VKA or a DOAC, the incidence of major bleeding was statistically significantly higher among those who were older than 65 years or had creatinine clearance less than 50 mL/min, a history of bleeding, concomitant use of antiplatelet therapy, or a hemoglobin level less than 100 g/L. The case-fatality rate of major bleeding was 8.3% (CI, 5.1% to 12.2%) with VKAs and 9.7% (CI, 3.2% to 19.2%) with DOACs. LIMITATION: Data were insufficient to estimate incidence of major bleeding beyond 1 year of extended anticoagulation with DOACs. CONCLUSION: In patients with a first unprovoked VTE, the long-term risks and consequences of anticoagulant-related major bleeding are considerable. This information will help inform patient prognosis and guide decision making about treatment duration for unprovoked VTE. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Canadian Institutes of Health Research. (PROSPERO: CRD42019128597).

Postoperative low molecular weight heparin bridging treatment for patients at high risk of arterial thromboembolism (PERIOP2): double blind randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the efficacy and safety of dalteparin postoperative bridging treatment versus placebo for patients with atrial fibrillation or mechanical heart valves when warfarin is temporarily interrupted for a planned procedure. DESIGN: Prospective, double blind, randomised controlled trial. SETTING: 10 thrombosis research sites in Canada and India between February 2007 and March 2016. PARTICIPANTS: 1471 patients aged 18 years or older with atrial fibrillation or mechanical heart valves who required temporary interruption of warfarin for a procedure. INTERVENTION: Random assignment to dalteparin (n=821; one patient withdrew consent immediately after randomisation) or placebo (n=650) after the procedure. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Major thromboembolism (stroke, transient ischaemic attack, proximal deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, myocardial infarction, peripheral embolism, or vascular death) and major bleeding according to the International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis criteria within 90 days of the procedure. RESULTS: The rate of major thromboembolism within 90 days was 1.2% (eight events in 650 patients) for placebo and 1.0% (eight events in 820 patients) for dalteparin (P=0.64, risk difference -0.3%, 95% confidence interval -1.3 to 0.8). The rate of major bleeding was 2.0% (13 events in 650 patients) for placebo and 1.3% (11 events in 820 patients) for dalteparin (P=0.32, risk difference -0.7, 95% confidence interval -2.0 to 0.7). The results were consistent for the atrial fibrillation and mechanical heart valves groups. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with atrial fibrillation or mechanical heart valves who had warfarin interrupted for a procedure, no significant benefit was found for postoperative dalteparin bridging to prevent major thromboembolism. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00432796.