Evaluation of Fecal Inflammatory Biomarkers to Identify Bacterial Diarrhea Episodes: Systematic Review and Protocol for the Enterics for Global Health Shigella Surveillance Study.

Background: The measurement of fecal inflammatory biomarkers among individuals presenting to care with diarrhea could improve the identification of bacterial diarrheal episodes that would benefit from antibiotic therapy. We reviewed prior literature in this area and describe our proposed methods to evaluate 4 biomarkers in the Enterics for Global Health (EFGH) Shigella surveillance study. Methods: We systematically reviewed studies since 1970 from PubMed and Embase that assessed the diagnostic characteristics of inflammatory biomarkers to identify bacterial diarrhea episodes. We extracted sensitivity and specificity and summarized the evidence by biomarker and diarrhea etiology. In EFGH, we propose using commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays to test for myeloperoxidase, calprotectin, lipocalin-2, and hemoglobin in stored whole stool samples collected within 24 hours of enrollment from participants in the Bangladesh, Kenya, Malawi, Pakistan, Peru, and The Gambia sites. We will develop clinical prediction scores that incorporate the inflammatory biomarkers and evaluate their ability to identify Shigella and other bacterial etiologies of diarrhea as determined by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). Results: Forty-nine studies that assessed fecal leukocytes (n = 39), red blood cells (n = 26), lactoferrin (n = 13), calprotectin (n = 8), and myeloperoxidase (n = 1) were included in the systematic review. Sensitivities were high for identifying Shigella, moderate for identifying any bacteria, and comparable across biomarkers. Specificities varied depending on the outcomes assessed. Prior studies were generally small, identified red and white blood cells by microscopy, and used insensitive gold standard diagnostics, such as conventional bacteriological culture for pathogen detection. Conclusions: Our evaluation of inflammatory biomarkers to distinguish diarrhea etiologies as determined by qPCR will provide an important addition to the prior literature, which was likely biased by the limited sensitivity of the gold standard diagnostics used. We will determine whether point-of-care biomarker tests could be a viable strategy to inform treatment decision making and increase appropriate targeting of antibiotic treatment to bacterial diarrhea episodes.

Population Enumeration and Household Utilization Survey Methods in the Enterics for Global Health (EFGH): Shigella Surveillance Study.

Background: Accurate estimation of diarrhea incidence from facility-based surveillance requires estimating the population at risk and accounting for case patients who do not seek care. The Enterics for Global Health (EFGH) Shigella surveillance study will characterize population denominators and healthcare-seeking behavior proportions to calculate incidence rates of Shigella diarrhea in children aged 6-35 months across 7 sites in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Methods: The Enterics for Global Health (EFGH) Shigella surveillance study will use a hybrid surveillance design, supplementing facility-based surveillance with population-based surveys to estimate population size and the proportion of children with diarrhea brought for care at EFGH health facilities. Continuous data collection over a 24 month period captures seasonality and ensures representative sampling of the population at risk during the period of facility-based enrollments. Study catchment areas are broken into randomized clusters, each sized to be feasibly enumerated by individual field teams. Conclusions: The methods presented herein aim to minimize the challenges associated with hybrid surveillance, such as poor parity between survey area coverage and facility coverage, population fluctuations, seasonal variability, and adjustments to care-seeking behavior.

Diarrhea Case Surveillance in the Enterics for Global Health Shigella Surveillance Study: Epidemiologic Methods.

Background: Shigella is a leading cause of acute watery diarrhea, dysentery, and diarrhea-attributed linear growth faltering, a precursor to stunting and lifelong morbidity. Several promising Shigella vaccines are in development and field efficacy trials will require a consortium of potential vaccine trial sites with up-to-date Shigella diarrhea incidence data. Methods: The Enterics for Global Health (EFGH) Shigella surveillance study will employ facility-based enrollment of diarrhea cases aged 6-35 months with 3 months of follow-up to establish incidence rates and document clinical, anthropometric, and financial consequences of Shigella diarrhea at 7 country sites (Mali, Kenya, The Gambia, Malawi, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Peru). Over a 24-month period between 2022 and 2024, the EFGH study aims to enroll 9800 children (1400 per country site) between 6 and 35 months of age who present to local health facilities with diarrhea. Shigella species (spp.) will be identified and serotyped from rectal swabs by conventional microbiologic methods and quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Shigella spp. isolates will undergo serotyping and antimicrobial susceptibility testing. Incorporating population and healthcare utilization estimates from contemporaneous household sampling in the catchment areas of enrollment facilities, we will estimate Shigella diarrhea incidence rates. Conclusions: This multicountry surveillance network will provide key incidence data needed to design Shigella vaccine trials and strengthen readiness for potential trial implementation. Data collected in EFGH will inform policy makers about the relative importance of this vaccine-preventable disease, accelerating the time to vaccine availability and uptake among children in high-burden settings.

Exploring Natural Immune Responses to Shigella Exposure Using Multiplex Bead Assays on Dried Blood Spots in High-Burden Countries: Protocol From a Multisite Diarrhea Surveillance Study.

Background: Molecular diagnostics on human fecal samples have identified a larger burden of shigellosis than previously appreciated by culture. Evidence of fold changes in immunoglobulin G (IgG) to conserved and type-specific Shigella antigens could be used to validate the molecular assignment of type-specific Shigella as the etiology of acute diarrhea and support polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based microbiologic end points for vaccine trials. Methods: We will test dried blood spots collected at enrollment and 4 weeks later using bead-based immunoassays for IgG to invasion plasmid antigen B and type-specific lipopolysaccharide O-antigen for Shigella flexneri 1b, 2a, 3a, and 6 and Shigella sonnei in Shigella-positive cases and age-, site-, and season-matched test-negative controls from all sites in the Enterics for Global Health (EFGH) Shigella surveillance study. Fold antibody responses will be compared between culture-positive, culture-negative but PCR-attributable, and PCR-positive but not attributable cases and test-negative controls. Age- and site-specific seroprevalence distributions will be identified, and the association between baseline antibodies and Shigella attribution will be estimated. Conclusions: The integration of these assays into the EFGH study will help support PCR-based attribution of acute diarrhea to type-specific Shigella, describe the baseline seroprevalence of conserved and type-specific Shigella antibodies, and support correlates of protection for immunity to Shigella diarrhea. These insights can help support the development and evaluation of Shigella vaccine candidates.

Comparative effectiveness of alternative intervals between first and second doses of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines.

The optimal interval between the first and second doses of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines has not been thoroughly evaluated. Employing a target trial emulation approach, we compared the effectiveness of different interdose intervals among >6 million mRNA vaccine recipients in Georgia, USA, from December 2020 to March 2022. We compared three protocols defined by interdose interval: recommended by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) (17-25 days for Pfizer-BioNTech; 24-32 days for Moderna), late-but-allowable (26-42 days for Pfizer-BioNTech; 33-49 days for Moderna), and late ( ≥ 43 days for Pfizer-BioNTech; ≥50 days for Moderna). In the short-term, the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection was lowest under the FDA-recommended protocol. Longer-term, the late-but-allowable protocol resulted in the lowest risk (risk ratio on Day 120 after the first dose administration compared to the FDA-recommended protocol: 0.83 [95% confidence interval: 0.82-0.84]). Here, we showed that delaying the second dose by 1-2 weeks may provide stronger long-term protection.

Azithromycin for Bacterial Watery Diarrhea: A Reanalysis of the AntiBiotics for Children With Severe Diarrhea (ABCD) Trial Incorporating Molecular Diagnostics.

BACKGROUND: Bacterial pathogens cause substantial diarrhea morbidity and mortality among children living in endemic settings, yet antimicrobial treatment is only recommended for dysentery or suspected cholera. METHODS: AntiBiotics for Children with severe Diarrhea was a 7-country, placebo-controlled, double-blind efficacy trial of azithromycin in children 2-23 months of age with watery diarrhea accompanied by dehydration or malnutrition. We tested fecal samples for enteric pathogens utilizing quantitative polymerase chain reaction to identify likely and possible bacterial etiologies and employed pathogen-specific cutoffs based on genomic target quantity in previous case-control diarrhea etiology studies to identify likely and possible bacterial etiologies. RESULTS: Among 6692 children, the leading likely etiologies were rotavirus (21.1%), enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli encoding heat-stable toxin (13.3%), Shigella (12.6%), and Cryptosporidium (9.6%). More than one-quarter (1894 [28.3%]) had a likely and 1153 (17.3%) a possible bacterial etiology. Day 3 diarrhea was less common in those randomized to azithromycin versus placebo among children with a likely bacterial etiology (risk difference [RD]likely, -11.6 [95% confidence interval {CI}, -15.6 to -7.6]) and possible bacterial etiology (RDpossible, -8.7 [95% CI, -13.0 to -4.4]) but not in other children (RDunlikely, -0.3% [95% CI, -2.9% to 2.3%]). A similar association was observed for 90-day hospitalization or death (RDlikely, -3.1 [95% CI, -5.3 to -1.0]; RDpossible, -2.3 [95% CI, -4.5 to -.01]; RDunlikely, -0.6 [95% CI, -1.9 to .6]). The magnitude of risk differences was similar among specific likely bacterial etiologies, including Shigella. CONCLUSIONS: Acute watery diarrhea confirmed or presumed to be of bacterial etiology may benefit from azithromycin treatment. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT03130114.

The 2022 Vaccines Against Shigella and Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VASE) Conference: Summary of breakout workshops.

The global public health nonprofit organization PATH hosted the third Vaccines Against Shigella and Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VASE) Conference in Washington, DC, from November 29 to December 1, 2022. This international gathering focused on cutting-edge research related to the development of vaccines against neglected diarrheal pathogens including Shigella, enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC), Campylobacter, and non-typhoidal Salmonella. In addition to the conference's plenary content, the agenda featured ten breakout workshops on topics of importance to the enteric vaccine field. This unique aspect of VASE Conferences allows focused groups of attendees to engage in in-depth discussions on subjects of interest to the enteric vaccine development community. In 2022, the workshops covered a range of topics. Two focused on the public health value of enteric vaccines, with one examining how to translate evidence into policy and the other on the value proposition of potential combination vaccines against bacterial enteric pathogens. Two more workshops explored new tools for the development and evaluation of vaccines, with the first on integrating antigen/antibody technologies for mucosal vaccine and immunoprophylactic development, and the second on adjuvants specifically for Shigella vaccines for children in low- and middle-income countries. Another pair of workshops covered the status of vaccines against two emerging enteric pathogens, Campylobacter and invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella. The remaining four workshops examined the assessment of vaccine impact on acute and long-term morbidity. These included discussions on the nature and severity of intestinal inflammation; cellular immunity and immunological memory in ETEC and Shigella infections; clinical and microbiologic endpoints for Shigella vaccine efficacy studies in children; and intricacies of protective immunity to enteric pathogens. This article provides a brief summary of the presentations and discussions at each workshop in order to share these sessions with the broader enteric vaccine field.

Geographic Variation in Qualified Health Plan Coverage and Prior Authorization Requirements for HIV Preexposure Prophylaxis.

Importance: HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a key component of the Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) Initiative to curb new HIV diagnoses. In October 2019, emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide was added as an approved formulation for PrEP in addition to emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate; despite availability of another formulation with a similar prevention indication, variations in coverage may limit access. Objective: To assess qualified health plan (QHP) coverage, prior authorization (PA) requirements, and specialty tiering for emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide following emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide approval as a PrEP treatment. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study analyzed QHPs in the US that were compliant with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act from 2018 to 2020. QHPs were categorized by region and EHE priority jurisdictions. Data analysis occurred from March 2022 to March 2023. Exposures: Enrollment in a qualified health plan certified by the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Main Outcome and Measures: Annual variation in QHP coverage and PA requirement for emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and/or emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide. Descriptive statistics were reported for all outcomes. A secondary outcome was whether the PrEP formulation was determined by the QHP to be placed on a specialty drug tier. Results: A total of 58 087 QHPs (19 533 for 2018; 17 007 for 2019; and 21 547 for 2020) were analyzed. QHPs covered emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (19 165 QHPs [98.1%] in 2018; 16 970 QHPs [99.8%] in 2019; 20 045 QHPs [94.8%] in 2020) at a higher rate than emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide (17 391 QHPs [91.9%] in 2018; 15 757 QHPs [92.7%] in 2019; 18 836 QHPs [87.4%] in 2020). QHPs in the South required exclusive PA (ie, PA for 1 of the formulations even if the QHP covered both) for emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide at the highest rates in all 3 years. In the South, the rate of PA for emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate increased from 806 of 8023 QHPs (10.0%) in 2018 to 3466 of 7401 QHPs (46.8%) in 2020. QHPs with exclusive PA requirement for emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate were higher in EHE jurisdictions than non-EHE jurisdictions (difference: 2018, 0.9 percentage points; 2019, 3.5 percentage points; 2020, 29.1 percentage points). QHPs were more likely to place emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate on a specialty tier compared with emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide (difference: 2018, 1.8 percentage points; 2019, 3.7 percentage points; 2020, 4.1 percentage points). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study, despite similar indications for biomedical prevention, QHPs were more likely to cover emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate than emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide, and QHPs were also more likely to subject emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate to PA or place it on a specialty tier despite the broader clinical indication. QHP PA requirements of emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate following emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide approval does not reflect clinical guidelines. The requirements could reflect differences in clinical indication, manufacturer discounts, or anticipation of a changing regulations and emerging generics. High rates of exclusive PA for emtricitabine/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate in areas where rates of HIV diagnoses are highest and PrEP is most needed (eg, the South and EHE priority jurisdictions) is concerning; policy solutions to address the growing PrEP health equity crisis could include regulator actions and a national PrEP program.

Differences in Rotavirus Shedding and Duration by Infant Oral Rotavirus Vaccination Status in Dhaka, Bangladesh 2011 - 2014.

To evaluate how breakthrough rotavirus disease contributes to transmission, we examined the impact of rotavirus vaccination on fecal shedding and duration of illness. We used multivariable linear regression to analyze rotavirus quantity by RT-qPCR and duration among 184 episodes of rotavirus diarrhea positive by ELISA in the PROVIDE study. Vaccinated children had less fecal viral shedding compared to unvaccinated children (mean difference = -0.59 log copies per gram of stool, 95% CI: -0.99, -0.19). Duration of illness was on average 0.47 days (95% CI: -0.23, 1.17) shorter among vaccinated children. Rotarix vaccination reduces shedding burden among breakthrough cases of RVGE.

We estimated the effect of rotavirus vaccination on duration and quantity of rotavirus shed during rotavirus gastroenteritis in Bangladesh. Virus quantity was lower in symptomatic vaccinated children compared to symptomatic unvaccinated children, but differences in episode duration were small.

Burden of diarrhea and antibiotic use among children in low-resource settings preventable by Shigella vaccination: A simulation study.

BACKGROUND: Shigella is a leading cause of diarrhea and dysentery in children in low-resource settings, which is frequently treated with antibiotics. The primary goal of a Shigella vaccine would be to reduce mortality and morbidity associated with Shigella diarrhea. However, ancillary benefits could include reducing antibiotic use and antibiotic exposures for bystander pathogens carried at the time of treatment, specifically for fluoroquinolones and macrolides (F/M), which are the recommended drug classes to treat dysentery. The aim of the study was to quantify the reduction in Shigella attributable diarrhea, all diarrhea, and antibiotic use in the first 2 years of life that could be prevented by a Shigella vaccine. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used data from the Etiology, Risk Factors, and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED) study, a birth cohort study that followed 1,715 children with twice weekly surveillance for enteric infections, illnesses, and antibiotic use for the first 2 years of life from November 2009 to February 2014 at 8 sites. We estimated the impact of 2 one-dose (6 or 9 months) and 3 two-dose (6 and 9 months, 9 and 12 months, and 12 and 15 months) Shigella vaccines on diarrheal episodes, overall antibiotic use, and F/M use. Further, we considered additional protection through indirect and boosting effects. We used Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the absolute and relative reductions in the incidence of diarrhea and antibiotic use comparing each vaccination scenario to no vaccination. We analyzed 9,392 diarrhea episodes and 15,697 antibiotic courses among 1,715 children in the MAL-ED birth cohort study. There were 273.8 diarrhea episodes, 30.6 shigellosis episodes, and 457.6 antibiotic courses per 100 child-years. A Shigella vaccine with a mean vaccine efficacy of 60% against severe disease given at 9 and 12 months prevented 10.6 (95% CI [9.5, 11.5]) Shigella diarrhea episodes of any severity per 100 child-years (relative 34.5% reduction), 3.0 (95% CI [2.5, 3.5]) F/M courses for Shigella treatment per 100 child-years (relative 35.8% reduction), and 5.6 (95% CI [5.0, 6.3]) antibiotic courses of any drug class for Shigella treatment per 100 child-years (relative 34.5% reduction). This translated to a relative 3.8% reduction in all diarrhea, a relative 2.8% reduction in all F/M courses, a relative 3.1% reduction in F/M exposures to bystander pathogens, and a relative 0.9% reduction in all antibiotic courses. These results reflect Shigella incidence and antibiotic use patterns at the 8 MAL-ED sites and may not be generalizable to all low-resource settings. CONCLUSIONS: Our simulation results suggest that a Shigella vaccine meeting WHO targets for efficacy could prevent about a third of Shigella diarrhea episodes, antibiotic use to treat shigellosis, and bystander exposures due to shigellosis treatment. However, the reductions in overall diarrhea episodes and antibiotic use are expected to be modest (<5%).

Risk factors and titers of COVID-19 infection in a longitudinal statewide seroepidemiology cohort.

BACKGROUND: Virginia is a large state in the USA, yet it remains unclear what percentage of the population has had natural COVID-19 infection and whether risk factors for infection have changed over time. METHODS: Using a longitudinal cohort, from December 2021-July 2022 we performed follow up serology and a questionnaire on 784 individuals from across Virginia who had previously participated in a statewide COVID-19 seroepidemiology study in 2020. Children were also invited to participate and an additional 62 children also completed the study. Serology was performed using Roche nucleocapsid and spike serological assays. RESULTS: The majority of participants were white (78.6%), over 50 years old (60.9%), and reported having received COVID-19 vaccine (93.4%). 28.6% had evidence of prior COVID-19 infection (nucleocapsid positive). Reweighted by region, age, and sex to match the Virginia census data, the seroprevalence of nucleocapsid antibodies was estimated to be 30.6% (95% CI: 24.7, 36.6). We estimated that 25-53% of COVID-19 infections were asymptomatic. Infection rates were lower in individuals > 60 years old and were higher in Blacks and Hispanics. Infection rates were also higher in those without health insurance, in those with greater numbers of household children, and in those that reported a close contact or having undergone quarantine for COVID-19. Participants from Southwest Virginia had lower seropositivity (16.2%, 95% CI 6.5, 26.0) than other geographic regions. Boosted vaccinees had lower infection rates than non-boosted vaccinees. Frequenting indoor bars was a risk factor for infection, while frequently wearing an N95 mask was protective, though the estimates of association were imprecise. Infection rates were higher in children than adults (56.5% vs. 28.6%). Infection in the parent was a risk factor for child infection. Spike antibody levels declined with time since last vaccination, particularly in those that were vaccinated but not previously infected. Neutralizing antibody positivity was high (97-99%) for wild type, alpha, beta, gamma, delta, and omicron variants. Neutralizing antibody levels were higher in the follow-up survey compared to the first survey in 2020 and among individuals with evidence of natural infection compared to those without. CONCLUSIONS: In this longitudinal statewide cohort we observed a lower-than-expected COVID-19 infection rate as of August 2022. Boosted vaccinees had lower infection rates. Children had higher infection rates and infections tracked within households. Previously identified demographic risk factors for infection tended to persist. Even after the omicron peak, a large number of Virginians remain uninfected with COVID-19, underscoring the need for ongoing vaccination strategies.

Interactive SARS-CoV-2 dashboard for real-time geospatial visualisation of sewage and clinical surveillance data from Dhaka, Bangladesh: a tool for public health situational awareness.

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, many dashboards were created to visualise clinical case incidence. Other dashboards have displayed SARS-CoV-2 sewage data, largely from countries with formal sewage networks. However, very few dashboards from low-income and lower-middle-income countries integrated both clinical and sewage data sets. We created a dashboard to track in real-time both COVID-19 clinical cases and the level of SARS-CoV-2 virus in sewage in Dhaka, Bangladesh. The development of this dashboard was a collaborative iterative process with Bangladesh public health stakeholders to include specific features to address their needs. The final dashboard product provides spatiotemporal visualisations of COVID-19 cases and SARS-CoV-2 viral load at 51 sewage collection sites in 21 wards in Dhaka since 24 March 2020. Our dashboard was updated weekly for the Bangladesh COVID-19 national task force to provide supplemental data for public health stakeholders making public policy decisions on mitigation efforts. Here, we highlight the importance of working closely with public health stakeholders to create a COVID-19 dashboard for public health impact. In the future, the dashboard can be expanded to track trends of other infectious diseases as sewage surveillance is increased for other pathogens.

Minimizing error in estimates of the effect of interventions by accounting for baseline measurements: A simulation study analyzing effects on child growth.

Interventions to reduce childhood stunting burden require clinical trials with a primary outcome of linear growth. When growth is measured longitudinally, there are several options for including baseline measurements in the analysis. This study compares the performance of several methods. Randomized controlled trials evaluating a hypothetical intervention to improve length-for-age z-score (LAZ) from birth through 24 months of age were simulated. The intervention effect was evaluated using linear regression and five methods for handling baseline measurements: comparing final measurements only (FINAL), comparing final measurement adjusted for baseline (ADJUST), comparing the change in the measurement over time (DELTA), adjusting for baseline when comparing the changes over time (DELTA+ADJUST) and adjusting for baseline in two-step residuals approach (RESIDUALS). We calculated bias, precision and power of each method for scenarios with and without a baseline imbalance in LAZ. Using a 0.15 effect size at 18 months, FINAL and DELTA required 1200 and 1500 enroled participants, respectively, to reach 80% power, whereas ADJUST, DELTA+ADJUST and RESIDUALS only required 900 participants. The adjusted models also produced unbiased estimates when there was a baseline imbalance, whereas the FINAL and DELTA methods produced biased estimates, as large as 0.07 lower and higher, respectively, than the true effect. Adjusted methods required smaller sample size and produced more precise results than both DELTA and FINAL methods in all test scenarios. If randomization fails, and there is an imbalance in LAZ at baseline, DELTA and FINAL methods can produce biased estimates, but adjusted models remain unbiased. These results warn against using the FINAL or DELTA methods.

Real-time sewage surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in Dhaka, Bangladesh versus clinical COVID-19 surveillance: a longitudinal environmental surveillance study (December, 2019-December, 2021).

BACKGROUND: Clinical surveillance for COVID-19 has typically been challenging in low-income and middle-income settings. From December, 2019, to December, 2021, we implemented environmental surveillance in a converging informal sewage network in Dhaka, Bangladesh, to investigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission across different income levels of the city compared with clinical surveillance. METHODS: All sewage lines were mapped, and sites were selected with estimated catchment populations of more than 1000 individuals. We analysed 2073 sewage samples, collected weekly from 37 sites, and 648 days of case data from eight wards with varying socioeconomic statuses. We assessed the correlations between the viral load in sewage samples and clinical cases. FINDINGS: SARS-CoV-2 was consistently detected across all wards (low, middle, and high income) despite large differences in reported clinical cases and periods of no cases. The majority of COVID-19 cases (26 256 [55·1%] of 47 683) were reported from Ward 19, a high-income area with high levels of clinical testing (123 times the number of tests per 100 000 individuals compared with Ward 9 [middle-income] in November, 2020, and 70 times the number of tests per 100 000 individuals compared with Ward 5 [low-income] in November, 2021), despite containing only 19·4% of the study population (142 413 of 734 755 individuals). Conversely, a similar quantity of SARS-CoV-2 was detected in sewage across different income levels (median difference in high-income vs low-income areas: 0·23 log10 viral copies + 1). The correlation between the mean sewage viral load (log10 viral copies + 1) and the log10 clinical cases increased with time (r = 0·90 in July-December, 2021 and r=0·59 in July-December, 2020). Before major waves of infection, viral load quantity in sewage samples increased 1-2 weeks before the clinical cases. INTERPRETATION: This study demonstrates the utility and importance of environmental surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in a lower-middle-income country. We show that environmental surveillance provides an early warning of increases in transmission and reveals evidence of persistent circulation in poorer areas where access to clinical testing is limited. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Association of Circulating Biomarkers with Growth and Cognitive Development in Rural Tanzania: A Secondary Analysis of the Early Life Interventions in Childhood Growth and Development In Tanzania (ELICIT) Study.

BACKGROUND: Children in low-resource areas experience nutritional and infection challenges delaying growth and cognitive development. OBJECTIVES: Our goal was to assess for associations of circulating biomarkers related to nutrition and inflammation, with growth and developmental outcomes among children in a birth cohort in a resource-poor area in rural Tanzania. METHODS: We assessed data from 1,120 children participating in the Early Life Interventions for Childhood Growth and Development in Tanzania (ELICIT) study. At age 12 and 18 mo, participants had blood tests performed for hemoglobin, collagen-X, insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1), fibroblast growth factor-21 (FGF21), thyroglobulin, ferritin, soluble transferrin receptor (sTFR), retinol binding protein-4 (RBP4), C-reactive protein (CRP), α1-acid glycoprotein (AGP), and CD14. At 18 mo, participants had anthropometry measured and converted to z-scores for length-for-age (LAZ), weight-for-age (WAZ) and head-circumference-for-age (HCZ) and had the Malawi Developmental Assessment Tool (MDAT) performed to evaluate cognitive development. We performed linear regression assessing biomarkers (predictor variable) on anthropometry and MDAT scores (dependent variables), adjusted for sex, socioeconomic status, and baseline values. RESULTS: There was a high degree of intrafactor correlation between 12 and 18 mo and interfactor correlation between biomarkers. IGF-1 and sTFR were positively and FGF21 and ferritin negatively associated with LAZ at 18 mo, whereas collagen-X and CD14 were additionally associated with recent linear growth. Only markers predominantly related to nutrition were consistently linked with WAZ at 18 mo, while RBP4 and AGP were additionally associated with recent change in WAZ. IGF-1 was positively and thyroglobulin, RBP4, and CD14 negatively linked to MDAT scores. IGF-1 was the only factor linked to both 18-mo LAZ and MDAT. CONCLUSIONS: Individual biomarkers were consistently linked to growth and cognitive outcomes, providing support for relationships between nutrition and inflammation in early child development. Further research is needed to assess overlaps in how biomarker-related processes interact with both growth and learning. REGISTERED AT CLINICALTRIALS.GOV: NCT03268902.

Transporting monovalent rotavirus vaccine efficacy estimates to an external target population: a secondary analysis of data from a randomised controlled trial in Malawi.

Oral rotavirus vaccine efficacy estimates from randomised controlled trials are highly variable across settings. Although the randomised study design increases the likelihood of internal validity of findings, results from trials may not always apply outside the context of the study due to differences between trial participants and the target population. Here, we used a weight-based method to transport results from a monovalent rotavirus vaccine clinical trial conducted in Malawi between 2005 and 2008 to a target population of all trial-eligible children in Malawi, represented by data from the 2015-2016 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). We reweighted trial participants to reflect the population characteristics described by the Malawi DHS. Vaccine efficacy was estimated for 1008 trial participants after applying these weights such that they represented trial-eligible children in Malawi. We also conducted subgroup analyses to examine the heterogeneous treatment effects by stunting and tuberculosis vaccination status at enrolment. In the original trial, the estimates of one-year vaccine efficacy against severe rotavirus gastroenteritis and any-severity rotavirus gastroenteritis in Malawi were 49.2% (95% CI 15.6%-70.3%) and 32.1% (95% CI 2.5%-53.1%), respectively. After weighting trial participants to represent all trial-eligible children in Malawi, vaccine efficacy increased to 62.2% (95% CI 35.5%-79.0%) against severe rotavirus gastroenteritis and 38.9% (95% CI 11.4%-58.5%) against any-severity rotavirus gastroenteritis. Rotavirus vaccine efficacy may differ between trial participants and target populations when these two populations differ. Differences in tuberculosis vaccination status between the trial sample and DHS population contributed to varying trial and target population vaccine efficacy estimates.

Effect of Biannual Azithromycin to Children under 5 Years on the Carriage of Respiratory Pathogens among Children Aged 7-11 Years.

In the MORDOR I trial, children under 5 years of age were randomized to receive biannual (every 6 months) azithromycin for 2 years in Niger, Malawi, and Tanzania. In 30 Nigerien communities, children aged 7-11 years, who were not enrolled in the MORDOR I trial to receive biannual azithromycin, were assessed for carriage of seven respiratory pathogens. We aimed to see whether there were effects on the carriage of these seven respiratory pathogens among 3,187 children aged 7-11 years living in the 30 communities via nasopharyngeal swabs collected at baseline (N = 1,066), as well as at year 1 (N = 1,019) and year 2 (N = 1,102)-each about 6 months after azithromycin or placebo treatment of children under age five. Most children were positive for Haemophilus influenzae (baseline: 83.8%; interquartile range [IQR]: 78.7-90.4) and Streptococcus pneumoniae (baseline: 82.9%; IQR: 74.2-86.8) at all time points regardless of treatment group. There were no differences in prevalence nor quantity of H. influenzae (prevalence ratio: 0.95; 95% CI: 0.90, 1.02), S. pneumoniae (prevalence ratio: 1.01; 95% CI: 0.96, 1.07), or any of the other respiratory pathogens in the treatment versus control groups at any time point. S. pneumoniae serotype 6AB (7.7%) and Neisseria meningitidis serotype W135 (24.9%) were the most prevalent serotypes detected among all positive S. pneumoniae and N. meningitidis samples, respectively. Biannual azithromycin did not reduce carriage of respiratory pathogens 6 months after the most recent round of biannual azithromycin among older nontreated children (aged 7-11 years) living in treatment communities.

Could a Shigella vaccine impact long-term health outcomes?: Summary report of an expert meeting to inform a Shigella vaccine public health value proposition, March 24 and 29, 2021.

Shigellosis is a leading cause of diarrhea and dysentery in young children from low to middle-income countries and adults experiencing traveler's diarrhea worldwide. In addition to acute illness, infection by Shigella bacteria is associated with stunted growth among children, which has been linked to detrimental long-term health, developmental, and economic outcomes. On March 24 and 29, 2021, PATH convened an expert panel to discuss the potential impact of Shigella vaccines on these long-term outcomes. Based on current empirical evidence, this discussion focused on whether Shigella vaccines could potentially alleviate the long-term burden associated with Shigella infections. Also, the experts provided recommendations about how to best model the burden, health and vaccine impact, and economic consequences of Shigella infections. This international multidisciplinary panel included 13 scientists, physicians, and economists from multiple relevant specialties. According to the panel, while the relationship between Shigella infections and childhood growth deficits is complex, this relationship likely exists. Vaccine probe studies are the crucial next step to determine whether vaccination could ameliorate Shigella infection-related long-term impacts. Infants should be vaccinated during their first year of life to maximize their protection from severe acute health outcomes and ideally reduce stunting risk and subsequent negative long-term developmental and health impacts. With vaccine schedule crowding, targeted or combination vaccination approaches would likely increase vaccine uptake in high-burden areas. Shigella impact and economic assessment models should include a wider range of linear growth outcomes. Also, these models should produce a spectrum of results-ones addressing immediate benefits for usual health care decision-makers and others that include broader health impacts, providing a more comprehensive picture of vaccination benefits. While many of the underlying mechanisms of this relationship need better characterization, the remaining gaps can be best addressed by collecting data post-vaccine introduction or through large trials.

Impact of Shigella infections and inflammation early in life on child growth and school-aged cognitive outcomes: Findings from three birth cohorts over eight years.

BACKGROUND: Shigella infections cause inflammation, which has been hypothesized to mediate the associations between Shigella and child development outcomes among children in low-resource settings. We aimed to assess whether early life inflammation and Shigella infections affect school-aged growth and cognitive outcomes from 6-8 years of age. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted follow-up assessments of anthropometry, reasoning skills, and verbal fluency in 451 children at 6-8 years of age in the Brazil, Tanzania, and South Africa sites of MAL-ED, a longitudinal birth cohort study. We estimated the associations between Shigella burden and inflammation with linear growth at 2, 5, and 6-8 years of age, and with the cognitive test scores using linear regression and adjusting for potential confounding variables. We also assessed whether inflammation mediated the associations between Shigella and school-aged outcomes using a regression-based approach to mediation analysis. A high prevalence of Shigella was associated with a 0.32 (95% CI: 0.08, 0.56) z-score lower height-for-age z-score (HAZ) at 6-8 years compared to a low prevalence of Shigella. Intestinal inflammation had a smaller association with HAZ at 6-8 years. Shigella burden had small and consistently negative associations with cognitive outcomes in Brazil and Tanzania, but not South Africa, and the estimates were not statistically significant. Systemic inflammation was strongly associated with lower verbal fluency scores in Brazil (semantic fluency z-score difference: -0.57, 95% CI: -1.05, -0.10; phonemic fluency z-score difference: -0.48, 95% CI: -0.93, -0.03). There was no evidence that intestinal inflammation mediated the association between Shigella and HAZ or cognitive outcomes. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: While Shigella infections were consistently associated with long-term deficits in linear growth, the estimates of the negative associations between Shigella and cognitive outcomes were imprecise and only observed in the Brazil and Tanzania sites. Systemic inflammation was strongly associated with lower semantic and phonemic fluency scores in Brazil only, highlighting the site-specificity of effects.

Frequency of bystander exposure to antibiotics for enteropathogenic bacteria among young children in low-resource settings.

Children in low-resource settings carry enteric pathogens asymptomatically and are frequently treated with antibiotics, resulting in opportunities for pathogens to be exposed to antibiotics when not the target of treatment (i.e., bystander exposure). We quantified the frequency of bystander antibiotic exposures for enteric pathogens and estimated associations with resistance among children in eight low-resource settings. We analyzed 15,697 antibiotic courses from 1,715 children aged 0 to 2 y from the MAL-ED birth cohort. We calculated the incidence of bystander exposures and attributed exposures to respiratory and diarrheal illnesses. We associated bystander exposure with phenotypic susceptibility of E. coli isolates in the 30 d following exposure and at the level of the study site. There were 744.1 subclinical pathogen exposures to antibiotics per 100 child-years. Enteroaggregative Escherichia coli was the most frequently exposed pathogen, with 229.6 exposures per 100 child-years. Almost all antibiotic exposures for Campylobacter (98.8%), enterotoxigenic E. coli (95.6%), and typical enteropathogenic E. coli (99.4%), and the majority for Shigella (77.6%), occurred when the pathogens were not the target of treatment. Respiratory infections accounted for half (49.9%) and diarrheal illnesses accounted for one-fourth (24.6%) of subclinical enteric bacteria exposures to antibiotics. Bystander exposure of E. coli to class-specific antibiotics was associated with the prevalence of phenotypic resistance at the community level. Antimicrobial stewardship and illness-prevention interventions among children in low-resource settings would have a large ancillary benefit of reducing bystander selection that may contribute to antimicrobial resistance.