Planting long-lived trees in a warming climate: Theory shows the importance of stage-dependent climatic tolerance.

Climate change poses a particular threat to long-lived trees, which may not adapt or migrate fast enough to keep up with rising temperatures. Assisted gene flow could facilitate adaptation of populations to future climates by using managed translocation of seeds from a warmer location (provenance) within the current range of a species. Finding the provenance that will perform best in terms of survival or growth is complicated by a trade-off. Because trees face a rapidly changing climate during their long lives, the alleles that confer optimal performance may vary across their lifespan. For instance, trees from warmer provenances could be well adapted as adults but suffer from colder temperatures while juvenile. Here we use a stage-structured model, using both analytical predictions and numerical simulations, to determine which provenance would maximize the survival of a cohort of long-lived trees in a changing climate. We parameterize our simulations using empirically estimated demographic transition matrices for 20 long-lived tree species. Unable to find reliable quantitative estimates of how climatic tolerance changes across stages in these same species, we varied this parameter to study its effect. Both our mathematical model and simulations predict that the best provenance depends strongly on how fast the climate changes and also how climatic tolerance varies across the lifespan of a tree. We thus call for increased empirical efforts to measure how climate tolerance changes over life in long-lived species, as our model suggests that it should strongly influence the best provenance for assisted gene flow.

Antagonistic Effects of Assortative Mating on the Evolution of Phenotypic Plasticity along Environmental Gradients.

AbstractPrevious theory has shown that assortative mating for plastic traits can maintain genetic divergence across environmental gradients despite high gene flow. Yet these models did not examine how assortative mating affects the evolution of plasticity. We here describe patterns of genetic variation across elevation for plasticity in a trait under assortative mating, using multiple-year observations of budburst date in a common garden of sessile oaks. Despite high gene flow, we found significant spatial genetic divergence for the intercept, but not for the slope, of reaction norms to temperature. We then used individual-based simulations, where both the slope and the intercept of the reaction norm evolve, to examine how assortative mating affects the evolution of plasticity, varying the intensity and distance of gene flow. Our model predicts the evolution of either suboptimal plasticity (reaction norms with a slope shallower than optimal) or hyperplasticity (slopes steeper than optimal) in the presence of assortative mating when optimal plasticity would evolve under random mating. Furthermore, a cogradient pattern of genetic divergence for the intercept of the reaction norm (where plastic and genetic effects are in the same direction) always evolves in simulations with assortative mating, consistent with our observations in the studied oak populations.

Multiple sex chromosome drivers in a mammal with three sex chromosomes.

Eukaryotes with separate males and females display a great diversity in the way they determine sex, but it is still unclear what evolutionary forces cause transitions between sex-determining systems. Rather that the lack of hypotheses, the problem is the scarcity of adequate biological systems to test them. Here, we take advantage of the recent evolution of a feminizing X chromosome (called X∗) in the African pygmy mouse Mus minutoides to investigate one of the evolutionary forces hypothesized to cause such transitions, namely sex chromosome drive (i.e., biased transmission of sex chromosomes to the next generation). Through extensive molecular sexing of pups at weaning, we reveal the existence of a remarkable male sex chromosome drive system in this species, whereby direction and strength of drive are conditional upon the genotype of males' partners: males transmit their Y at a rate close to 80% when mating with XX or XX∗ females and only 36% when mating with X∗Y females. Using mathematical modeling, we explore the joint evolution of these unusual sex-determining and drive systems, revealing that different sequences of events could have led to the evolution of this bizarre system and that the "conditional" nature of sex chromosome drive plays a crucial role in the short- and long-term maintenance of the three sex chromosomes.

Assortative mating can help adaptation of flowering time to a changing climate: Insights from a polygenic model.

Several empirical studies report fast evolutionary changes in flowering time in response to contemporary climate change. Flowering time is a polygenic trait under assortative mating, since flowering time of mates must overlap. Here, we test whether assortative mating, compared with random mating, can help better track a changing climate. For each mating pattern, our individual-based model simulates a population evolving in a climate characterized by stabilizing selection around an optimal flowering time, which can change directionally and/or fluctuate. We also derive new analytical predictions from a quantitative genetics model for the expected genetic variance at equilibrium, and its components, the lag of the population to the optimum and the population mean fitness. We compare these predictions between assortative and random mating, and to our simulation results. Assortative mating, compared with random mating, has antagonistic effects on genetic variance: it generates positive associations among similar allelic effects, which inflates the genetic variance, but it decreases genetic polymorphism, which depresses the genetic variance. In a stationary environment with substantial stabilizing selection, assortative mating affects little the genetic variance compared with random mating. In a changing climate, assortative mating however increases genetic variance compared to random mating, which diminishes the lag of the population to the optimum, and in most scenarios translates into a fitness advantage relative to random mating. The magnitude of this fitness advantage depends on the extent to which genetic variance limits adaptation, being larger for faster environmental changes and weaker stabilizing selection.

Sex-specific spatial variation in fitness in the highly dimorphic Leucadendron rubrum.

Sexual dimorphism in plants may emerge as a result of sex-specific selection on traits enhancing access to nutritive resources and/or to sexual partners. Here we investigated sex-specific differences in selection of sexually dimorphic traits and in the spatial distribution of effective fecundity (our fitness proxy) in a highly dimorphic dioecious wind-pollinated shrub, Leucadendron rubrum. In particular, we tested for the effect of density on male and female effective fecundity. We used spatial and genotypic data of parent and offspring cohorts to jointly estimate individual male and female effective fecundity on the one hand and pollen and seed dispersal kernels on the other hand. This methodology was adapted to the case of dioecious species. Explicitly modelling dispersal avoids the confounding effects of heterogeneous spatial distribution of mates and sampled seedlings on the estimation of effective fecundity. We also estimated selection gradients on plant traits while modelling sex-specific spatial autocorrelation in fecundity. Males exhibited spatial autocorrelation in effective fecundity at a smaller scale than females. A higher local density of plants was associated with lower effective fecundity in males but was not related to female effective fecundity. These results suggest sex-specific sensitivities to environmental heterogeneity in L. rubrum. Despite these sexual differences, we found directional selection for wider canopies and smaller leaves in both sexes, and no sexually antagonistic selection on strongly dimorphic traits in L. rubrum. Many empirical studies in animals similarly failed to detect sexually antagonistic selection in species expressing strong sexual dimorphism, and we discuss reasons explaining this common pattern.

Where is the optimum? Predicting the variation of selection along climatic gradients and the adaptive value of plasticity. A case study on tree phenology.

Many theoretical models predict when genetic evolution and phenotypic plasticity allow adaptation to changing environmental conditions. These models generally assume stabilizing selection around some optimal phenotype. We however often ignore how optimal phenotypes change with the environment, which limit our understanding of the adaptive value of phenotypic plasticity. Here, we propose an approach based on our knowledge of the causal relationships between climate, adaptive traits, and fitness to further these questions. This approach relies on a sensitivity analysis of the process-based model phenofit, which mathematically formalizes these causal relationships, to predict fitness landscapes and optimal budburst dates along elevation gradients in three major European tree species. Variation in the overall shape of the fitness landscape and resulting directional selection gradients were found to be mainly driven by temperature variation. The optimal budburst date was delayed with elevation, while the range of dates allowing high fitness narrowed and the maximal fitness at the optimum decreased. We also found that the plasticity of the budburst date should allow tracking the spatial variation in the optimal date, but with variable mismatch depending on the species, ranging from negligible mismatch in fir, moderate in beech, to large in oak. Phenotypic plasticity would therefore be more adaptive in fir and beech than in oak. In all species, we predicted stronger directional selection for earlier budburst date at higher elevation. The weak selection on budburst date in fir should result in the evolution of negligible genetic divergence, while beech and oak would evolve counter-gradient variation, where genetic and environmental effects are in opposite directions. Our study suggests that theoretical models should consider how whole fitness landscapes change with the environment. The approach introduced here has the potential to be developed for other traits and species to explore how populations will adapt to climate change.

Maladaptive Shifts in Life History in a Changing Environment.

Many species facing climate change have complex life cycles, with individuals in different stages differing in their sensitivity to a changing climate and their contribution to population growth. We use a quantitative genetics model to predict the dynamics of adaptation in a stage-structured population confronted with a steadily changing environment. Our model assumes that different optimal phenotypic values maximize different fitness components, consistent with many empirical observations. In a constant environment, the population evolves toward an equilibrium phenotype, which represents the best compromise given the trade-off between vital rates. In a changing environment, however, the mean phenotype in the population will lag behind this optimal compromise. We show that this lag may result in a shift along the trade-off between vital rates, with negative consequences for some fitness components but, less intuitively, improvements in some others. Complex eco-evolutionary dynamics can emerge in our model due to feedbacks between population demography and adaptation. Because of such feedback loops, selection may favor further shifts in life history in the same direction as those caused by maladaptive lags. These shifts in life history could be wrongly interpreted as adaptations to the new environment, while in reality they only reflect the inability of the population to adapt fast enough.

Population persistence under high mutation rate: From evolutionary rescue to lethal mutagenesis.

Populations may genetically adapt to severe stress that would otherwise cause their extirpation. Recent theoretical work, combining stochastic demography with Fisher's geometric model of adaptation, has shown how evolutionary rescue becomes unlikely beyond some critical intensity of stress. Increasing mutation rates may however allow adaptation to more intense stress, raising concerns about the effectiveness of treatments against pathogens. This previous work assumes that populations are rescued by the rise of a single resistance mutation. However, even in asexual organisms, rescue can also stem from the accumulation of multiple mutations in a single genome. Here, we extend previous work to study the rescue process in an asexual population where the mutation rate is sufficiently high so that such events may be common. We predict both the ultimate extinction probability of the population and the distribution of extinction times. We compare the accuracy of different approximations covering a large range of mutation rates. Moderate increase in mutation rates favors evolutionary rescue. However, larger increase leads to extinction by the accumulation of a large mutation load, a process called lethal mutagenesis. We discuss how these results could help design "evolution-proof" antipathogen treatments that even highly mutable strains could not overcome.

Evolutionary Rescue over a Fitness Landscape.

Evolutionary rescue describes a situation where adaptive evolution prevents the extinction of a population facing a stressing environment. Models of evolutionary rescue could in principle be used to predict the level of stress beyond which extinction becomes likely for species of conservation concern, or, conversely, the treatment levels most likely to limit the emergence of resistant pests or pathogens. Stress levels are known to affect both the rate of population decline (demographic effect) and the speed of adaptation (evolutionary effect), but the latter aspect has received less attention. Here, we address this issue using Fisher's geometric model of adaptation. In this model, the fitness effects of mutations depend both on the genotype and the environment in which they arise. In particular, the model introduces a dependence between the level of stress, the proportion of rescue mutants, and their costs before the onset of stress. We obtain analytic results under a strong-selection-weak-mutation regime, which we compare to simulations. We show that the effect of the environment on evolutionary rescue can be summarized into a single composite parameter quantifying the effective stress level, which is amenable to empirical measurement. We describe a narrow characteristic stress window over which the rescue probability drops from very likely to very unlikely as the level of stress increases. This drop is sharper than in previous models, as a result of the decreasing proportion of stress-resistant mutations as stress increases. We discuss how to test these predictions with rescue experiments across gradients of stress.

Life-History Traits Evolved Jointly with Climatic Niche and Disturbance Regime in the Genus Leucadendron (Proteaceae).

Organisms have evolved a diversity of life-history strategies to cope with variation in their environment. Persistence as adults and/or seeds across recruitment events allows species to dampen the effects of environmental fluctuations. The evolution of life cycles with overlapping generations should thus permit the colonization of environments with uncertain recruitment. We tested this hypothesis in Leucadendron (Proteaceae), a genus with high functional diversity native to fire-prone habitats in the South African fynbos. We analyzed the joint evolution of life-history traits (adult survival and seed-bank strategies) and ecological niches (climate and fire regime), using comparative methods and accounting for various sources of uncertainty. In the fynbos, species with canopy seed banks that are unable to survive fire as adults display nonoverlapping generations. In contrast, resprouters with an underground seed bank may be less threatened by extreme climatic events and fire intervals, given their iteroparity and long-lasting seed bank. Life cycles with nonoverlapping generations indeed jointly evolved with niches with less exposure to frost but not with those with less exposure to drought. Canopy seed banks jointly evolved with niches with more predictable fire return, compared to underground seed banks. The evolution of extraordinary functional diversity among fynbos plants thus reflects, at least in part, the diversity of both climates and fire regimes in this region.

Pollen dispersal slows geographical range shift and accelerates ecological niche shift under climate change.

Species may survive climate change by migrating to track favorable climates and/or adapting to different climates. Several quantitative genetics models predict that species escaping extinction will change their geographical distribution while keeping the same ecological niche. We introduce pollen dispersal in these models, which affects gene flow but not directly colonization. We show that plant populations may escape extinction because of both spatial range and ecological niche shifts. Exact analytical formulas predict that increasing pollen dispersal distance slows the expected spatial range shift and accelerates the ecological niche shift. There is an optimal distance of pollen dispersal, which maximizes the sustainable rate of climate change. These conclusions hold in simulations relaxing several strong assumptions of our analytical model. Our results imply that, for plants with long distance of pollen dispersal, models assuming niche conservatism may not accurately predict their future distribution under climate change.

Why evolution matters for species conservation: perspectives from three case studies of plant metapopulations.

We advocate the advantage of an evolutionary approach to conservation biology that considers evolutionary history at various levels of biological organization. We review work on three separate plant taxa, spanning from one to multiple decades, illustrating extremes in metapopulation functioning. We show how the rare endemics Centaurea corymbosa (Clape Massif, France) and Brassica insularis in Corsica (France) may be caught in an evolutionary trap: disruption of metapopulation functioning due to lack of colonization of new sites may have counterselected traits such as dispersal ability or self-compatibility, making these species particularly vulnerable to any disturbance. The third case study concerns the evolution of life history strategies in the highly diverse genus Leucadendron of the South African fynbos. There, fire disturbance and the recolonization phase after fires are so integral to the functioning of populations that recruitment of new individuals is conditioned by fire. We show how past adaptation to different fire regimes and climatic constraints make species with different life history syndromes more or less vulnerable to global changes. These different case studies suggest that management strategies should promote evolutionary potential and evolutionary processes to better protect extant biodiversity and biodiversification.

Lower selfing rates in metallicolous populations than in non-metallicolous populations of the pseudometallophyte Noccaea caerulescens (Brassicaceae) in Southern France.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The pseudometallophyte Noccaea caerulescens is an excellent model to study evolutionary processes, as it grows both on normal and on heavy-metal-rich, toxic soils. The evolution and demography of populations are critically impacted by mating system and, yet, information about the N. caerulescens mating system is limited. METHODS: Mean selfing rates were assessed using microsatellite loci and a robust estimation method (RMES) in five metallicolous and five non-metallicolous populations of N. caerulescens in Southern France, and this measure was replicated for two successive reproductive seasons. As a part of the study, the patterns of gene flow among populations were analysed. The mating system was then characterized at a fine spatial scale in three populations using the MLTR method on progeny arrays. KEY RESULTS: The results confirm that N. caerulescens has a mixed mating system, with selfing rates ranging from 0·2 to 0·5. Selfing rates did not vary much among populations within ecotypes, but were lower in the metallicolous than in the non-metallicolous ecotype, in both seasons. Effective population size was also lower in non-metallicolous populations. Biparental inbreeding was null to moderate. Differentiation among populations was generally high, but neither ecotype nor isolation by distance explained it. CONCLUSIONS: The consequences of higher selfing rates on adaptation are expected to be weak to moderate in non-metallicolous populations and they are expected to suffer less from inbreeding depression, compared to metallicolous populations.

Dispersal as a source of variation in age-specific reproductive strategies in a wild population of lizards.

Dispersal syndromes describe the patterns of covariation of morphological, behavioural, and life-history traits associated with dispersal. Studying dispersal syndromes is critical to understanding the demographic and genetic consequences of movements. Among studies describing the association of life-history traits with dispersal, there is anecdotal evidence suggesting that dispersal syndromes can vary with age. Recent theory also suggests that dispersive and philopatric individuals might have different age-specific reproductive efforts. In a wild population of the common lizard (Zootoca vivipara), we investigated whether dispersive and philopatric individuals have different age-specific reproductive effort, survival, offspring body condition, and offspring sex ratio. Consistent with theoretical predictions, we found that young dispersive females have a higher reproductive effort than young philopatric females. Our results also suggest that the early high investment in reproduction of dispersive females trades-off with an earlier onset of senescence than in philopatric females. We further found that young dispersive females produce smaller offspring in lower body condition than do young philopatric females. Overall, our results provide empirical evidence that dispersive and philopatric individuals have different age-specific life-history traits.

Phenological plasticity will not help all species adapt to climate change.

Concerns are rising about the capacity of species to adapt quickly enough to climate change. In long-lived organisms such as trees, genetic adaptation is slow, and how much phenotypic plasticity can help them cope with climate change remains largely unknown. Here, we assess whether, where and when phenological plasticity is and will be adaptive in three major European tree species. We use a process-based species distribution model, parameterized with extensive ecological data, and manipulate plasticity to suppress phenological variations due to interannual, geographical and trend climate variability, under current and projected climatic conditions. We show that phenological plasticity is not always adaptive and mostly affects fitness at the margins of the species' distribution and climatic niche. Under current climatic conditions, phenological plasticity constrains the northern range limit of oak and beech and the southern range limit of pine. Under future climatic conditions, phenological plasticity becomes strongly adaptive towards the trailing edges of beech and oak, but severely constrains the range and niche of pine. Our results call for caution when interpreting geographical variation in trait means as adaptive, and strongly point towards species distribution models explicitly taking phenotypic plasticity into account when forecasting species distribution under climate change scenarios.

Maladaptation as a source of senescence in habitats variable in space and time.

In this study, we use a quantitative genetics model of structured populations to investigate the evolution of senescence in a variable environment. Adaptation to local environments depends on phenotypic traits whose optimal values vary with age and with environmental conditions. We study different scenarios of environmental heterogeneity, where the environment changes abruptly, gradually, or cyclically with time and where the environment is heterogeneous in space with different populations connected by migration. The strength of selection decreases with age, which predicts slower adaptation of traits expressed late in the life cycle, potentially generating stronger senescence in habitats where selection changes in space or in time. This prediction is however complicated by the fact that the genetic variance also increases with age. Using numerical calculations, we found that the rate of senescence is generally increased when the environment varies. In particular, migration between different habitats is a source of senescence in heterogeneous landscapes. We also show that the rate of senescence can vary transiently when the population is not at equilibrium, with possible implications for experimental evolution and the study of invasive species. Our results highlight the need to study age-specific adaptation, as a changing environment can have a different impact on different age classes.

XY females do better than the XX in the African pygmy mouse, Mus minutoides.

All therian mammals have a similar XY/XX sex-determination system except for a dozen species. The African pygmy mouse, Mus minutoides, harbors an unconventional system in which all males are XY, and there are three types of females: the usual XX but also XX* and X*Y ones (the asterisk designates a sex-reversal mutation on the X chromosome). The long-term evolution of such a system is a paradox, because X*Y females are expected to face high reproductive costs (e.g., meiotic disruption and loss of unviable YY embryos), which should prevent invasion and maintenance of a sex-reversal mutation. Hence, mechanisms for compensating for the costs could have evolved in M. minutoides. Data gathered from our laboratory colony revealed that X*Y females do compensate and even show enhanced reproductive performance in comparison to the XX and XX*; they produce significantly more offspring due to (i) a higher probability of breeding, (ii) an earlier first litter, and (iii) a larger litter size, linked to (iv) a greater ovulation rate. These findings confirm that rare conditions are needed for an atypical sex-determination mechanism to evolve in mammals, and provide valuable insight into understanding modifications of systems with highly heteromorphic sex chromosomes.

Optimal life-history strategy differs between philopatric and dispersing individuals in a metapopulation.

Abundant empirical evidence for dispersal syndromes contrasts with the rarity of theoretical predictions about the evolution of life-history divergence between dispersing and philopatric individuals. We use an evolutionary model to predict optimal differences in age-specific reproductive effort between dispersing and philopatric individuals inhabiting the same metapopulation. In our model, only young individuals disperse, and their lifelong reproductive decisions are potentially affected by this initial event. Juvenile survival declines as density of adults and other juveniles increases. We assume a trade-off between reproduction and survival, so that different patterns of age-specific reproductive effort lead to different patterns of aging. We find that young immigrant mothers should allocate more resources to reproduction than young philopatric mothers, but these life-history differences vanish as immigrant and philopatric individuals get older. However, whether the higher early reproductive effort of immigrants results in higher fecundity depends on the postimmigration cost on fecundity. Dispersing individuals have consequently a shorter life span. Ultimately, these life-history differences are due to the fact that young dispersing individuals most often live in recently founded populations, where competition is relaxed and juvenile survival higher, favoring larger investment in offspring production at the expense of survival.

How does pollen versus seed dispersal affect niche evolution?

In heterogeneous landscapes, the genetic and demographic consequences of dispersal influence the evolution of niche width. Unless pollen is limiting, pollen dispersal does not contribute directly to population growth. However, by disrupting local adaptation, it indirectly affects population dynamics. We compare the effect of pollen versus seed dispersal on the evolution of niche width in heterogeneous habitats, explicitly considering the feedback between maladaptation and demography. We consider two scenarios: the secondary contact of two subpopulations, in distinct, formerly isolated habitats, and the colonization of an empty habitat with dispersal between the new and ancestral habitat. With an analytical model, we identify critical levels of genetic variance leading to niche contraction (secondary contact scenario), or expansion (new habitat scenario). We confront these predictions with simulations where the genetic variance freely evolves. Niche contraction occurs when habitats are very different. It is faster as total gene flow increases or as pollen predominates in overall gene flow. Niche expansion occurs when habitat heterogeneity is not too high. Seed dispersal accelerates it, whereas pollen dispersal tends to retard it. In both scenarios very high seed dispersal leads to extinction. Overall, our results predict a wider niche for species dispersing seeds more than pollen.