Sequences of sickness absence, disability pension and unemployment four years before and five years after musculoskeletal diagnosis among Swedish twins.

AIMS: To investigate sustainable working life via identification of time-related sequences of sickness absence (SA), disability pension (DP) and unemployment four years before and five years after the first musculoskeletal diagnosis in a Swedish twin cohort. Other aims were to account for familial confounding and to examine the associations between sequences and sociodemographic characteristics. METHODS: Among 28,474 Swedish twins, the patterns of interruptions of working life four years before the first M00-M99 diagnosis (MSD) and five years after MSD diagnosis were investigated with a sequence analysis in a seven-element state space consisting of sustainable working life, unemployment >90 days, moderate SA/DP (30-179 days), almost full year of SA/DP (180-365 days), full year of SA/DP (⩾ 365 days), death, and old-age pension. RESULTS: The six-cluster solution had the best fit to the data. Five clusters had varying patterns of interruptions of sustainable working life (Clusters 2-6, n = 537-1949 with SA/DP, unemployment, but also accounting death and old-age pension) compared with the largest cluster with primarily sustainable working life (n = 23,316). Age, sex and familial factors affected the likelihood of belonging to the clusters with SA/DP. CONCLUSIONS: Most Swedish twins with or without MSD diagnosis have a sustainable working life, although MSD was both prevalent and a strong risk factor for belonging to the clusters with SA/DP. Thus, early prevention of MSD and prevention of recurrent or long sickness absences due to any cause would be merited while paying special attention to women also.

Factors associated with readmissions in psychiatric inpatient care: a prospective cohort study based on hospital registers.

BACKGROUND: Readmissions in psychiatric inpatient care may reflect problems in the provision of care, but the underlying factors are not well known. We examined the associations of patient characteristics (sociodemographic factors, diagnoses), treatment (duration, previous episodes, neuromodulation) and ward overload with psychiatric inpatient readmissions and multiple readmissions in Finland. METHODS: We used a routinely collected data pool from one hospital district and followed all 2052 hospitalizations that started in 2018. The outcomes were readmission within 30 days and one year, and among those with readmission, the number of readmissions. RESULTS: Of the patients, 11% had readmission within 30 days and 33% had readmission within one year. Women, those with previous hospitalizations, those with an ICD-10 diagnosis from the 'behavioural syndromes associated with physiological disturbances and physical factors / disorders of adult personality and behaviour' group, those with a diagnosis from the 'neurotic, stress-related and somatoform disorders' group, those with psychotic disorders, and those who received neuromodulation treatment were more likely to have readmissions. Having a diagnosis of 'disorders of psychological development' or 'behavioural and emotional disorders with onset usually occurring in childhood and adolescence' was associated with a lower likelihood of readmission. The duration of treatment and ward overload during the index period were not associated with readmission. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study suggest possible risk factors for readmission and can be used to plan psychiatric care. To some degree, the risk factors varied between different readmission types. It is important to examine whether there are unmet treatment needs in psychiatric inpatient care for children and adolescents.

Airport security personnel's working hour characteristics and associations with sickness absence-a retrospective cohort study in 2016-2019.

We aimed to investigate the associations of working hour characteristics based on the international and local definitions with sickness absence (SA) among airport security personnel. The payroll-based registry data of daily working hours for 2016-2019 at one airport was limited to those with ≥30 work shifts in a year (n=377-687 employees). The conditional Poisson model for incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) was used for analyses. Based on the international definitions, only a few associations were found: each one-unit increase in weekly working hours and the number of consecutive working days were associated with a lower likelihood of SA. The local definitions were more consistently associated with SA: Each one-unit increase in shift length and time between shifts, higher variation in shift length, and the number of consecutive evening and night shifts were associated with a higher likelihood of SA. To conclude, especially the local definitions of working hour characteristics seem to be important limits for short SA. Thus, high variability of shift lengths and prolonged shifts could be avoided to reduce the risk of SA. Overall, keeping the working hours within any of the recommendations among airport security personnel could support well-being and health.

Workload and short sickness absences in a cohort of Finnish hospital employees.

This article used register data on day-to-day working hours of hospital employees combined with patient characteristics at work unit (wards) level to measure workload and its implications for short, self-certified sickness absences. We measured statistically the average nursing treatment burden of different patient mixes in hospital wards, and then analyzed the overall workload (intensity) of working days by comparing it to the actual available nursing workforce. We found that a significant part of the workload variation occurred between working days, and it was related to unexpected changes in the number of employees. In atypical situations a long work shift was associated with caring for patients with fewer resources. The high workload of a day increased the risk of short sickness absences along the following 3-week period. The results show that managing short-term workload variability should be a key aim from the perspective of well-being at work, and that combining different data sources can provide novel, important insights to the measurement of workload.

Changes in family situation and concurrent changes in working life: a 15-year longitudinal analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Currently, little is known regarding changes in family situation with concurrent changes in working life. This study aimed to examine whether changes in family situation (based on living with children and/or marrying/divorcing) were associated with changes in working life and whether the associations were influenced by sex, genetics and early life environment. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Data from Swedish national registers of 16 410 twins were used. Fixed-effects logistic regression models assessing ORs with 95% CIs were applied to examine associations between changes in family situation and working life controlling for time-invariant effects and adjusted for covariates, and conditional models to account for confounding of genetics and early life environment. RESULTS: Changes in individuals life situation from being single and living without children to married and living with children were associated with transitioning from unsustainable (ie, having unemployment or sickness absence/disability pension) to sustainable working life (men: OR 2.40, 95% CI 2.26 to 2.56; women: OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.59 to 1.78). Changes from being married to single, in contrast, attenuated the likelihood of transitioning to a sustainable working life. Moreover, changes in men's working life seem to be more dependent on changes in family situation compared with women. Genetic factors and early life environment play a role in the associations. CONCLUSIONS: Family formation increases the likelihood of a more stable working life whereas divorce is a risk factor for work interruptions. Our study emphasises that family formation improves the work life situation and to a higher degree for men.

Association of nurse understaffing and limited nursing work experience with in-hospital mortality among patients: A longitudinal register-based study.

BACKGROUND: Although nurse understaffing and limited nursing work experience may affect hospital patients' risk of mortality, relatively little longitudinal patient-level evidence on these associations is available. Hospital administrative data could provide important information about the level of staffing, nurses' work experience and patient mortality over time. OBJECTIVE: To examine whether daily exposure to nurse understaffing and limited nursing work experience is associated with patient mortality, using patient-level data with different exposure time windows and accounting for several patient-related characteristics. METHODS: This longitudinal register-based study combined administrative data on patients (clinical database Auria) and employees (Titania® shift-scheduling) from one hospital district in Finland in 2013-2019, covering a total of 254,446 hospital stays in 40 units. We quantified nurse understaffing as the number of days with low nursing hours in relation to target hours (<90 % of the annual unit median), and limited work experience as the number of days with a low proportion of nurses with >3 years of in-hospital experience, and those aged over 25 (<90 % of the annual unit median). We used two survival model designs to analyze the associations between nurse understaffing and limited nursing work experience and the in-hospital mortality of the patients: we considered these exposures during the first days in hospital and as a cumulative proportion of days with suboptimal staffing during the first 30 days. RESULTS: In total, 1.5 % (N = 3937) of the hospital stays ended in death. A 20 % increase in the proportion of days with nurse understaffing was associated with an increased, 1.05-fold mortality risk at the patient level (95 % confidence interval, 1.01-1.10). The cumulative proportion of days with limited nursing work experience, or the combination of nurse understaffing and limited work experience were not associated with increased risk of death among all patients. However, both indicators of limited nursing work experience were associated with an increased mortality risk among patients with comorbidities (HR 1.05, 95 % CI 1.02-1.08 and HR 1.05, 95 % CI 1.00-1.10, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Nurse understaffing was associated with a slight, but a potentially critical increase in patient in-hospital mortality. Limited nursing work experience was associated with increased in-hospital mortality in a subgroup of patients with comorbidities. Increased use of administrative data on planned and realized working hours could be a routine tool for reducing avoidable in-hospital mortality.

Predicting long-term sickness absence with employee questionnaires and administrative records: a prospective cohort study of hospital employees.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to compare the utility of risk estimation derived from questionnaires and administrative records in predicting long-term sickness absence among shift workers. METHODS: This prospective cohort study comprised 3197 shift-working hospital employees (mean age 44.5 years, 88.0% women) who responded to a brief 8-item questionnaire on work disability risk factors and were linked to 28 variables on their working hour and workplace characteristics obtained from administrative registries at study baseline. The primary outcome was the first sickness absence lasting ≥90 days during a 4-year follow-up. RESULTS: The C-index of 0.73 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-0.77] for a questionnaire-only based prediction model, 0.71 (95% CI 0.67-0.75) for an administrative records-only model, and 0.79 (95% CI 0.76-0.82) for a model combining variables from both data sources indicated good discriminatory ability. For a 5%-estimated risk as a threshold for positive test results, the detection rates were 76%, 74%, and 75% and the false positive rates were 40%, 45% and 34% for the three models. For a 20%-risk threshold, the corresponding detection rates were 14%, 8%, and 27% and the false positive rates were 2%, 2%, and 4%. To detect one true positive case with these models, the number of false positive cases accompanied varied between 7 and 10 using the 5%-estimated risk, and between 2 and 3 using the 20%-estimated risk cut-off. The pattern of results was similar using 30-day sickness absence as the outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The best predictive performance was reached with a model including both questionnaire responses and administrative records. Prediction was almost as accurate with models using only variables from one of these data sources. Further research is needed to examine the generalizability of these findings.

Concurrent trajectories of part-time work and sickness absence: a longitudinal cohort study over 11 years among shift working hospital employees.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the concurrent changes in part-time work and sickness absence (SA) in healthcare. Another aim was to investigate the role of age and sex on different concurrent trajectory groups. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Public hospital districts (n=10) and cities (n=11) in Finland. PARTICIPANTS: Payroll-based objective working hour data of the healthcare sector in Finland for 28 969 employees in 2008-2019 were used. The final sample included those working shifts with 3 consecutive years of data and without baseline (≥14 days) SA. PRIMARY OUTCOMES: Part-time work (yes or no) and months of SA. MEASURES: Group-based trajectory modelling to identify concurrent changes in part-time work, and months of SA while controlling the time-variant amount of night work and multinomial regression models for relative risk (RR) with 95% CIs were used. RESULTS: Four-group trajectory model was the best solution: group 1 (61.2%) with full-time work and no SA, group 2 (16.9%) with slowly increasing probability of part-time work and low but mildly increasing SA, group 3 (17.6%) with increasing part-time work and no SA, and group 4 (4.3%) with fluctuating, increasing part-time work and highest and increasing levels of SA. Men had a lower (RR 0.49-0.75) and older age groups had a higher likelihood (RRs 1.32-3.79) of belonging to trajectory groups 2-4. CONCLUSIONS: Most of the sample were in the trajectory group with full-time work and no SA. The probability of part-time work increased over time, linked with concurrent low increase or no SA. A minor group of employees had both an increased probability of part-time work and SA. Part-time work and other solutions might merit attention to promote sustainable working life among healthcare employees.

Regional differences in annual prevalence of sustainable working life in Swedish twin cohort.

The global rise in life expectancy transforms age structure consequently having impact to the sustainability of social protection systems and working life. This descriptive study aimed to illustrate the annual prevalence of sustainable working life across Swedish residential regions, and investigate differences between age groups, sex, or being identical or fraternal twin. The study sample included 81,231 twins with linkage to national register data on sickness absence, disability pension, unemployment, and residential regions. Regions were classified by Swedish municipalities into nine groups. Sustainable working life were then followed in 1998, 2003, 2008, and 2013. Annual prevalence and Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) with log linear models for interaction test were used. Medium to large size municipalities (15-24%) had higher annual prevalence of sustainable working life than smaller municipalities (1-7%). Young adults in medium to large size municipalities had high annual prevalence of sustainable working life. We found no differences for sexes or being identical or fraternal twin. To conclude, annual prevalence of sustainable working life in 1998, 2003, 2008 and 2013 differed by region being highest in medium to large size municipalities which may have importance for targeting policies, regulations, and practices in a region-specific way. Further studies on residential regions and sustainable working life would be merited to confirm associations and other influential factors.

Prediction of violence or threat of violence among employees in social work, healthcare and education: the Finnish Public Sector cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a risk prediction algorithm for identifying work units with increased risk of violence in the workplace. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Public sector employees in Finland. PARTICIPANTS: 18 540 nurses, social and youth workers, and teachers from 4276 work units who completed a survey on work characteristics, including prevalence and frequency of workplace violence/threat of violence at baseline in 2018-2019 and at follow-up in 2020-2021. Those who reported daily or weekly exposure to violence or threat of violence daily at baseline were excluded. EXPOSURES: Mean scores of responses to 87 survey items at baseline were calculated for each work unit, and those scores were then assigned to each employee within that work unit. The scores measured sociodemographic characteristics and work characteristics of the work unit. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: Increase in workplace violence between baseline and follow-up (0=no increase, 1=increase). RESULTS: A total of 7% (323/4487) of the registered nurses, 15% (457/3109) of the practical nurses, 5% of the social and youth workers (162/3442) and 5% of the teachers (360/7502) reported more frequent violence/threat of violence at follow-up than at baseline. The area under the curve values estimating the prediction accuracy of the prediction models were 0.72 for social and youth workers, 0.67 for nurses, and 0.63 for teachers. The risk prediction model for registered nurses included five work unit characteristics associated with more frequent violence at follow-up. The model for practical nurses included six characteristics, the model for social and youth workers seven characteristics and the model for teachers included four characteristics statistically significantly associated with higher likelihood of increased violence. CONCLUSIONS: The generated risk prediction models identified employees working in work units with high likelihood of future workplace violence with reasonable accuracy. These survey-based algorithms can be used to target interventions to prevent workplace violence.

Longitudinal trajectories of sickness absence among young adults with a history of depression and anxiety symptoms in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Depression and anxiety are associated with increased risk of sickness absence (SA), yet the developmental patterns of SA remain unclear. We aimed to identify trajectories of SA in young adults with depression and/or anxiety, accounting for sociodemographic and occupational factors. METHODS: Longitudinal study of 1445 twin individuals with elevated depressive/anxiety symptoms in late adolescence or young adulthood (age range: 19-30), assessed in Swedish surveys completed in 2005. Through linkage to nationwide registries, individuals were prospectively followed from 2006 to 2018. The outcome included consecutive annual days of SA, which were analyzed using group-based trajectory modeling. Multinomial logistic regression estimating odds ratios (OR) with 95 % confidence intervals (CI) was used to examine associations of age, sex, and educational level with the resulting SA trajectories. RESULTS: Four distinct SA trajectories were identified in the total sample: 'high-increasing' (6 %), 'low-increasing' (12 %), 'high-decreasing' (13 %), and 'low-constant' (69 %). Increasing age was associated with higher odds of belonging to the low-increasing trajectory (OR = 1.07, 95 % CI = 1.02-1.12). Women had higher odds of belonging to the low-increasing trajectory (OR = 1.67, 95 % CI = 1.10-2.53), compared with men. Higher education was associated with lower odds of belonging to high-increasing (OR = 0.34, 95 % CI = 0.22-0.54) and high-decreasing (OR = 0.59, 95 % CI = 0.43-0.81) trajectories, compared with lower education. Few differences were observed in analyses stratified by occupational sector. LIMITATIONS: Information on potential confounders (e.g., psychiatric comorbidity, work-environment factors) was not available. CONCLUSIONS: Among young adults with prior depression/anxiety, close to every fifth showed rising SA trajectories over time. This calls for targeted strategies to improve public mental health already at young ages.

Genetic and environmental contributions to individual differences in sustainable working life-A Swedish twin cohort study.

Although genetics is known to have a role in sickness absences (SA), disability pensions (DP) and in their mutual associations, the empirical knowledge is scarce on not having these interruptions, i.e., sustainable working life. Hence, we aimed to investigate how genetic and environmental factors affect individual variation in sustainable working life in short-term (two consecutive years) and in long-term (22 years of follow-up) using the classical twin modeling based on different genetic relatedness of mono- and dizygotic twins. The final sample (n = 51 071) included Swedish same-sex twins with known zygosity born between 1930 and 1990 (53% women) with complete national register data of employment, SA, DP, unemployment, old-age pension, emigration, and death. For the short-term sustainable working life, genetic factors explained 36% (95% confidence intervals (CI) 31-41%), environmental factors shared by co-twins such as family background 8% (95% CI 5-14%) and environmental factors unique to each twin individual 56% (95% CI 56-56%) on the individual differences. For the long-term sustainable working life, the largest proportions on individual differences were explained by environmental factors shared by co-twins (46%, 95% CI 44-48%) and unique to each twin individual (37% 95% CI 36-38%) whereas a small proportion was explained by genetic factors (18%, 95%CI 14-22%). To conclude, short-term sustainable working life was explained to a large extent by unique environment and to lesser extent by genetic factors whereas long-term (22 years) sustainable working life had both moderate unique and common environmental effect, and to lower extent genetic effects contributing to individual differences. These findings suggest that sustainable working life have different short- and long-term predictors.

Sickness absence transitions among Swedish twins with back, neck or shoulder pain and common mental disorders applying a multi-state approach.

We aimed to investigate transitions to and from sickness absence, or disability pension among individuals with back, neck, or shoulder pain and/or with common mental disorders (CMDs), and the role of familial (genetics and shared environment) influences on the transitions. Swedish twins born 1935-1985 who responded to pain and CMDs survey items (N = 41,516) were followed on average 8.7 years for sickness absence states in national registers. Multi-state Cox regression models were applied for three exposure groups: pain, CMDs, and presence of both, compared to unexposed. Exposure discordant twin pairs, stratified by zygosity, were analysed to assess the role of familial factors. Hazard Ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals and transition intensities were calculated. HRs were similar for transitions between states among those with pain or CMDs. The highest HRs were for transitions from entry to sickness absence and sickness absence to disability pension among those with both pain and CMDs (HRs: 1.61 and 1.43, respectively). Higher HRs for dizygotic compared to monozygotic twins for the first transition to sickness absence and for altering back to not being sickness absent indicate familial confounding. Back, neck, or shoulder pain and/or CMDs indicate a higher risk to become sickness absent and for repeated sickness absence episodes over time compared to unaffected.

Associations of Internalizing and Externalizing Problems in Childhood and Adolescence With Adult Labor Market Marginalization.

Importance: Mental health problems in early life are associated with labor market marginalization, especially in youths with persistent internalizing and externalizing problems. However, previous research has not adjusted for familial (genetic and shared environmental) factors. Objective: To examine associations of early-life internalizing and externalizing problems with adulthood unemployment and work disability, adjusting for familial factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based prospective cohort study included Swedish twins who were born in 1985-1986 and surveyed at 4 consecutive waves across childhood and adolescence until 2005. Through linkage to nationwide registries, participants were followed up from 2006 to 2018. Data analyses were conducted between September 2022 and April 2023. Exposures: Internalizing and externalizing problems, assessed with the Child Behavior Checklist. Participants were differentiated regarding duration of internalizing and externalizing problems (persistent, episodic, and noncases). Main Outcomes and Measures: Unemployment (180 days or more of being unemployed) and work disability (60 days or more of being sickness absent or disability pensioned) during follow-up. Cox proportional hazards regression models were calculated to obtain cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs in the whole cohort and exposure-discordant twin pairs. Results: Of 2845 participants, 1464 (51.5%) were female. Incident unemployment was experienced by 944 (33.2%) and incident work disability by 522 (18.3%) participants. Compared with noncases, persistent internalizing problems were associated with unemployment (HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.27-1.92) and work disability (HR, 2.32; 95% CI, 1.80-2.99). Similarly, compared with noncases, persistent externalizing problems were associated with unemployment (HR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.55-2.26) and work disability (HR, 2.38; 95% CI, 1.87-3.03). Persistent cases had overall higher risks of adverse outcomes than episodic cases. After adjustment for familial factors, associations with unemployment were no longer statistically significant, whereas associations with work disability remained or were only slightly reduced. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of young Swedish twins, familial factors explained the associations between early-life persistent internalizing and externalizing problems and unemployment; such factors were comparatively less important for the association with work disability. This suggests nonshared environmental factors may be important for the risk of future work disability among young individuals with persistent internalizing and externalizing problems.

Work unit level personnel working hours and the patients' length of in-hospital stay-An administrative data approach.

Administrative data accumulating daily from hospitals would provide new possibilities to assess work shifts and patient care. We aimed to investigate associations of work unit level average work shift length and length of patient in-hospital stay, and to examine the role of nurse-patient-ratio, year, night work, age, work units and working hours at the work units for these estimations. The data for this study were based on combined administrative day-to-day patient and pay-roll based objective working hour data of employees of one hospital district in Finland for 2013-2019. Three patient measures were calculated: the overall length of in-hospital stay, the length of in-hospital stay before a medical procedure and the length of in-hospital stay after a medical procedure. A Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) with multivariate normal random effects was used with Penalized Quasi-Likelihood for relative risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The results showed that compared to <8 hours work shifts, 8-10 hours work shifts were associated with an increased likelihood of overall length of in-hospital stay (RR 1.16, 95%CI 1.15, 1.16), and the length of in-hospital stay after a medical procedure (RR 1.28, 95%CI 1.27, 1.30). The >10 hours work shifts were associated with a decreased likelihood of the overall length of in-hospital stay (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.94, 0.95) and length of in-hospital stay after a medical procedure among all occupations (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.92, 0.97). These associations retained the magnitude and direction in the models additionally adjusted for work, employee, and patient characteristics, and the associations were weaker for nurses than among all occupations. To conclude, compared with the standard work shifts, 8-10 hours work shifts seem to be associated with longer, and >10 hours work shifts with shorter length of in-hospital stay. Administrative data provides feasible possibilities to investigate working hours and length of in-hospital stay.

Family-Related Life Events as Predictors of Labor Market Marginalization Trajectories: A Cohort Study of Swedish Twins.

OBJECTIVES: The aims of the study are to investigate trajectories of labor market marginalization (LMM) and to examine the associations between family-related life events and LMM trajectories while accounting for familial factors. METHODS: This is a prospective cohort study of 37,867 Swedish twins. Data were analyzed by group-based trajectory modeling. Associations of family-related life events with trajectory groups were estimated by multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: Most participants had no or low levels of LMM. Individuals who stayed married over time or changed from single without children to married with children had a decreased risk of LMM. The risk of LMM over time was higher among individuals who changed from married to being single. CONCLUSIONS: Being or getting married as well as having children decreases the risk of LMM while divorce is a risk factor for LMM.

Trajectories of sustainable working life in nine Swedish residential regions: A longitudinal twin cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate trajectories of sustainable working life (SWL, ie, no interruptions or transitions in working life due to sickness absence (SA), disability pension (DP), or unemployment) in Swedish residential regions using a population-based twin cohort, while assessing sociodemographics and twin pair similarity. METHODS: Sample of 60 998 twins born in 1925-1958. SWL was assessed through main labor market status in each year in 1998-2016 based on > 180 days with SA/DP, > 180 days with unemployment, or >half of yearly income from old-age pension for not in SWL, and employment (in paid work and did not fulfill the criteria SA/DP, unemployment, or old-age pension) for SWL. Residential regions were classified into nine groups based on Swedish municipalities. Group-based trajectory models and multinomial logistic regression were applied separately for all regions. RESULTS: In all regions, the largest trajectory group was sustainable working life. Three to four trajectory groups developed toward unsustainable working life with different exit points from sustainable working life. A small proportion were grouped with partial stable or increase in sustainable working life. Increased age, being a woman, <12 years of education, and history of unstable working life increased, and being married and twin pair similarity decreased the likelihood of belonging to trajectories toward unsustainable working life. CONCLUSIONS: In all regions, most of the individuals followed a sustainable working life trajectory. A reasonable proportion of individuals followed trajectories developing toward unsustainable working life. The influence of sociodemographic and familial factors on trajectory groups was similar in all regions.

Concurrent trajectories of residential region in relation to a sustainable working life among Swedish twins.

BACKGROUND: Residential regions may impact the possibilities to achieve a sustainable working life (SWL, i.e. not having interruptions due to sickness absence, disability pension or unemployment) due to disparities in social security and labour market. We aimed to investigate concurrent trajectories of regions and SWL among Swedish twins. METHODS: National register data were used for the degree of SWL in each year, old-age pension, emigration, death and residential regions classified in three categories (cities; towns and suburbs; or rural areas) of Swedish twins in 1998-2016 (n = 80 398). Group-based multi-trajectory modelling and multinomial regression for relative risks with 95% confidence intervals were calculated. RESULTS: The six-group solution had the best fit to data with trajectories: stable living in towns and suburbs with SWL (33.8%); stable living in cities with SWL (22.1%); stable living in towns and suburbs with increasing SWL (13.9%); stable living in towns and suburbs with lack of SWL (13.2%); stable living towns and suburbs with decreasing SWL (8.8%); and stable living towns and suburbs with decreasing and ultimately lack of SWL (8.3%). Age and being woman increased and being married and higher education decreased the likelihood of belonging to groups 2-6 (vs. 1). CONCLUSIONS: The simultaneous assessment of trajectories of three residential regions and SWL indicated that most people in Sweden seem to live continuously over time in towns and suburbs, but the degree of SWL may vary. More fine-grained assessment of residential regions would be needed to clarify the associations with SWL.

Nurse Staffing Level, Length of Work Experience, and Risk of Health Care-Associated Infections Among Hospital Patients: A Prospective Record Linkage Study.

BACKGROUND: Nurse understaffing may have several adverse consequences for patients in hospitals, such as health care-associated infections (HAIs), but there is little longitudinal evidence available on staffing levels and HAIs with consideration of incubation times to confirm this. Using daily longitudinal data, we analyzed temporal associations between nurse understaffing and limited work experience, and the risk of HAIs. METHODS: The study was based on administrative data of 40 units and 261,067 inpatient periods for a hospital district in Finland in 2013-2019. Survival analyses with moving time windows were used to examine the association of nurse understaffing and limited work experience with the risk of an HAI 2 days after exposure, adjusting for individual risk factors. We reported hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs. RESULTS: Neither nurse understaffing nor limited work experience were associated with the overall risk of HAIs. The results were inconsistent across staffing measures and types of HAIs, and many of the associations were weak. Regarding specific HAI types, 1-day exposure to low proportion of nurses with >3 years of in-hospital experience and low proportion of nurses more than 25 years old were associated with increased risk of bloodstream infections (HR=1.30; 95% CI: 1.04-1.62 and HR=1.40; 95% CI: 1.07-1.83). Two-day exposure to low nursing hours relative to target hours was associated with an increased risk of surgical-site infections (HR=2.64, 95% CI: 1.66-4.20). CONCLUSIONS: Data from time-varying analyses suggest that nursing staff shortages and limited work experience do not always increase the risk of HAI among patients.

Prediction of bullying at work: A data-driven analysis of the Finnish public sector cohort study.

AIM: To determine the extent to which change in (i.e., start and end of) workplace bullying can be predicted by employee responses to standard workplace surveys. METHODS: Responses to an 87-item survey from 48,537 Finnish public sector employees at T1 (2017-2018) and T2 (2019-2020) were analyzed with least-absolute-shrinkage-and-selection-operator (LASSO) regression. The predictors were modelled both at the individual- and the work unit level. Outcomes included both the start and the end of bullying. Predictive performance was evaluated with C-indices and density plots. RESULTS: The model with best predictive ability predicted the start of bullying with individual-level predictors, had a C-index of 0.68 and included 25 variables, of which 6 remained in a more parsimonious model: discrimination at work unit, unreasonably high workload, threat that some work tasks will be terminated, working in a work unit where everyone did not feel they are understood and accepted, having a supervisor who was not highly trusted, and a shorter time in current position. Other models performed even worse, either from the point of view of predictive performance, or practical useability. DISCUSSION: While many bivariate associations between socioeconomic characteristics, work characteristics, leadership, team climate, and job satisfaction were observed, reliable individualized detection of individuals at risk of becoming bullied at workplace was not successful. The predictive performance of the developed risk scores was suboptimal, and we do not recommend their use as an individual-level risk prediction tool. However, they might be useful tool to inform decision-making when planning the contents of interventions to prevent bullying at an organizational level.