Patterns and predictors of alcohol misuse trajectories from adolescence through early midlife.

We took a multilevel developmental contextual approach and characterized trajectories of alcohol misuse from adolescence through early midlife, examined genetic and environmental contributions to individual differences in those trajectories, and identified adolescent and young adult factors associated with change in alcohol misuse. Data were from two longitudinal population-based studies. FinnTwin16 is a study of Finnish twins assessed at 16, 17, 18, 25, and 35 years (N = 5659; 52% female; 32% monozygotic). The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) is a study of adolescents from the United States, who were assessed at five time points from 1994 to 2018 (N = 18026; 50% female; 64% White, 21% Black, 4% Native American, 7% Asian, 9% Other race/ethnicity). Alcohol misuse was measured as frequency of intoxication in FinnTwin16 and frequency of binge drinking in Add Health. In both samples, trajectories of alcohol misuse were best described by a quadratic growth curve: Alcohol misuse increased across adolescence, peaked in young adulthood, and declined into early midlife. Individual differences in these trajectories were primarily explained by environmental factors. Several adolescent and young adult correlates were related to the course of alcohol misuse, including other substance use, physical and mental health, and parenthood.

Proteomic insights into mental health status: plasma markers in young adults.

Global emphasis on enhancing prevention and treatment strategies necessitates an increased understanding of the biological mechanisms of psychopathology. Plasma proteomics is a powerful tool that has been applied in the context of specific mental disorders for biomarker identification. The p-factor, also known as the "general psychopathology factor", is a concept in psychopathology suggesting that there is a common underlying factor that contributes to the development of various forms of mental disorders. It has been proposed that the p-factor can be used to understand the overall mental health status of an individual. Here, we aimed to discover plasma proteins associated with the p-factor in 775 young adults in the FinnTwin12 cohort. Using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, 13 proteins with a significant connection with the p-factor were identified, 8 of which were linked to epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) signaling. This exploratory study provides new insight into biological alterations associated with mental health status in young adults.

Paternal and Maternal Problem Drinking and Lifetime Problem Drinking of Their Adult Children.

Parents' alcohol use is associated with alcohol use of their adolescent offspring, but does this association extend to the adulthood of the offspring? We examined associations of paternal and maternal problem drinking with lifetime problem drinking of their adult offspring prospectively assessed in a population-based Finnish twin-family cohort (FinnTwin16). Problem drinking (Malmö-modified Michigan Alcoholism Screening Test) was self-reported separately by mothers and fathers when their children were 16. The children reported on an extended lifetime version of the same measure during their mid-twenties (21-28 years) and mid-thirties (31-37 years). 1235 sons and 1461 daughters in mid-twenties and 991 sons and 1278 daughters in mid-thirties had complete data. Correlations between fathers' and their adult children's problem drinking ranged from .12 to .18. For mothers and their adult children, these correlations ranged from .09 to .14. In multivariate models, adjustment for potential confounders had little effect on the observed associations. In this study, parental problem drinking was modestly associated with lifetime problem drinking of their adult children. This association could be detected even when the children had reached the fourth decade of life.

Clinical, environmental, and genetic risk factors for substance use disorders: characterizing combined effects across multiple cohorts.

Substance use disorders (SUDs) incur serious social and personal costs. The risk for SUDs is complex, with risk factors ranging from social conditions to individual genetic variation. We examined whether models that include a clinical/environmental risk index (CERI) and polygenic scores (PGS) are able to identify individuals at increased risk of SUD in young adulthood across four longitudinal cohorts for a combined sample of N = 15,134. Our analyses included participants of European (NEUR = 12,659) and African (NAFR = 2475) ancestries. SUD outcomes included: (1) alcohol dependence, (2) nicotine dependence; (3) drug dependence, and (4) any substance dependence. In the models containing the PGS and CERI, the CERI was associated with all three outcomes (ORs = 01.37-1.67). PGS for problematic alcohol use, externalizing, and smoking quantity were associated with alcohol dependence, drug dependence, and nicotine dependence, respectively (OR = 1.11-1.33). PGS for problematic alcohol use and externalizing were also associated with any substance dependence (ORs = 1.09-1.18). The full model explained 6-13% of the variance in SUDs. Those in the top 10% of CERI and PGS had relative risk ratios of 3.86-8.04 for each SUD relative to the bottom 90%. Overall, the combined measures of clinical, environmental, and genetic risk demonstrated modest ability to distinguish between affected and unaffected individuals in young adulthood. PGS were significant but added little in addition to the clinical/environmental risk index. Results from our analysis demonstrate there is still considerable work to be done before tools such as these are ready for clinical applications.

Exploring the relationships between adolescent alcohol misuse and later life health outcomes.

BACKGROUND: We sought to clarify the impact of adolescent alcohol misuse on adult physical health and subjective well-being. To do so, we investigated both the direct associations between adolescent alcohol misuse and early midlife physical health and life satisfaction and the indirect effects on these outcomes attributable to subsequent alcohol problems. METHOD: The sample included 2733 twin pairs (32% monozygotic; 52% female) from the FinnTwin16 study. Adolescent alcohol misuse was a composite of frequency of drunkenness, frequency of alcohol use, and alcohol problems at ages 16, 17, and 18.5. The early midlife outcomes included somatic symptoms, self-rated health, and life satisfaction at age 34. The mediators examined as part of the indirect effect analyses included alcohol problems from the Rutgers Alcohol Problem Index at ages 24 and 34. Serial mediation and co-twin comparison models were applied and included covariates from adolescence and early midlife. RESULTS: There were weak direct associations between adolescent alcohol misuse and early midlife physical health and life satisfaction. However, there was stronger evidence for indirect effects, whereby young adult and early midlife alcohol problems serially mediated the relationship between adolescent alcohol misuse and early midlife somatic symptoms (ß = 0.03, 95% CI [0.03, 0.04]), self-rated health (ß = -0.02, 95% CI [-0.03, -0.01]), and life satisfaction (ß = -0.03, CI [-0.04, -0.02]). These serial mediation effects were robust in co-twin comparison analyses. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide evidence that alcohol problems are a primary driver linking adolescent alcohol misuse and poor health outcomes across the lifespan.

Alcohol consumption at age 18-25 and number of children at a 33-year follow-up: Individual and within-pair analyses of Finnish twins.

BACKGROUND: Do drinking patterns in late adolescence/early adulthood predict lifetime childlessness and number of children? Research on this question has been only tangentially relevant and the results inconsistent. The designs used to date have been compromised by genetic and environmental confounds that are poorly controlled; covariate effects of smoking and education that are often ignored; males being understudied; population-based sampling rare, and long-term prospective studies with genetically informative designs yet to be reported. METHOD: In a 33-year follow-up, we linked the drinking patterns of >3500 Finnish twin pairs, assessed at ages 18-25, to registry data on their eventual number of children. Analyses distinguished associations of early drinking patterns with lifetime childlessness from those predictive of family size. Within-twin pair analyses used fixed-effects regression models to account for shared familial confounds and genetic liabilities. Childlessness was analyzed with Cox proportional hazards models and family size with Poisson regression. Analyses within-pairs and of twins as individuals were run before and after adjustment for smoking and education, and for oral contraceptive (OC) use in individual-level analyses of female twins. RESULTS: Baseline abstinence and heavier drinking both significantly predicted lifetime childlessness in individual-level analyses. Few abstinent women used OCs, but they were nonetheless more often eventually childless; adjusting for smoking and education did not affect this finding. Excluding childless twins, Poisson models of family size showed heavier drinking at 18-25 to be predictive of fewer children in both men and women. Those associations were replicated in within-pair analyses of dizygotic twins, each level of heavier drinking being associated with smaller families. Among monozygotic twins, associations of drinking with completed family size yielded effects of similar magnitude, reaching significance at the highest levels of consumption, ruling out familial confounds. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to moderate levels of drinking, both abstinence and heavier drinking in late adolescence/early adulthood predicted a greater likelihood of lifetime childlessness and eventual number of children. Familial confounds do not fully explain these associations.

Association of lifetime major depressive disorder with enhanced attentional sensitivity measured with P3 response in young adult twins.

Major depression is associated with alterations in the auditory P3 event-related potential (ERP). However, the persistence of these abnormalities after recovery from depressive episodes, especially in young adults, is not well known. Furthermore, the potential influence of substance use on this association is poorly understood. Young adult twin pairs (N = 177) from the longitudinal FinnTwin16 study were studied with a psychiatric interview, and P3a and P3b ERPs elicited by task-irrelevant novel sounds and targets, respectively. Dyadic linear mixed-effect models were used to distinguish the effects of lifetime major depressive disorder from familial factors and effects of alcohol problem drinking and tobacco smoking. P3a amplitude was significantly increased and P3b latency decreased, in individuals with a history of lifetime major depression, when controlling the fixed effects of alcohol abuse, tobacco, gender, twins' birth order, and zygosity. These results suggest that past lifetime major depressive disorder may be associated with enhanced attentional sensitivity.

The genetic background of the associations between sense of coherence and mental health, self-esteem and personality.

PURPOSE: Sense of coherence (SOC) represents coping and can be considered an essential component of mental health. SOC correlates with mental health and personality, but the background of these associations is poorly understood. We analyzed the role of genetic factors behind the associations of SOC with mental health, self-esteem and personality using genetic twin modeling and polygenic scores (PGS). METHODS: Information on SOC (13-item Orientation of Life Questionnaire), four mental health indicators, self-esteem and personality (NEO Five Factor Inventory Questionnaire) was collected from 1295 Finnish twins at 20-27 years of age. RESULTS: In men and women, SOC correlated negatively with depression, alexithymia, schizotypal personality and overall mental health problems and positively with self-esteem. For personality factors, neuroticism was associated with weaker SOC and extraversion, agreeableness and conscientiousness with stronger SOC. All these psychological traits were influenced by genetic factors with heritability estimates ranging from 19 to 66%. Genetic and environmental factors explained these associations, but the genetic correlations were generally stronger. The PGS of major depressive disorder was associated with weaker, and the PGS of general risk tolerance with stronger SOC in men, whereas in women the PGS of subjective well-being was associated with stronger SOC and the PGSs of depression and neuroticism with weaker SOC. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that a substantial proportion of genetic variation in SOC is shared with mental health, self-esteem and personality indicators. This suggests that the correlations between these traits reflect a common neurobiological background rather than merely the influence of external stressors.

Predicting Alcohol Dependence Symptoms by Young Adulthood: A Co-Twin Comparisons Study.

Co-twin comparisons address familial confounding by controlling for genetic and environmental influences that twin siblings share. We applied the co-twin comparison design to investigate associations of adolescent factors with alcohol dependence (AD) symptoms. Participants were 1286 individuals (581 complete twin pairs; 42% monozygotic; and 54% female) from the FinnTwin12 study. Predictors included adolescent academic achievement, substance use, externalizing problems, internalizing problems, executive functioning, peer environment, physical health, relationship with parents, alcohol expectancies, life events, and pubertal development. The outcome was lifetime AD clinical criterion count, as measured in young adulthood. We examined associations of each adolescent domain with AD symptoms in individual-level and co-twin comparison analyses. In individual-level analyses, adolescents with higher levels of substance use, teacher-reported externalizing problems at age 12, externalizing problems at age 14, self- and co-twin-reported internalizing problems, peer deviance, and perceived difficulty of life events reported more symptoms of AD in young adulthood (ps < .044). Conversely, individuals with higher academic achievement, social adjustment, self-rated health, and parent-child relationship quality met fewer AD clinical criteria (ps < .024). Associations between adolescent substance use, teacher-reported externalizing problems, co-twin-reported internalizing problems, peer deviance, self-rated health, and AD symptoms were of a similar magnitude in co-twin comparisons. We replicated many well-known adolescent correlates of later alcohol problems, including academic achievement, substance use, externalizing and internalizing problems, self-rated health, and features of the peer environment and parent-child relationship. Furthermore, we demonstrate the utility of co-twin comparisons for understanding pathways to AD. Effect sizes corresponding to the associations between adolescent substance use, teacher-reported externalizing problems, co-twin-reported internalizing problems, peer deviance, and self-rated health were not significantly attenuated (p value threshold = .05) after controlling for genetic and environmental influences that twin siblings share, highlighting these factors as candidates for further research.

The Associations Between Leisure-Time Physical Activity and Academic Performance: A Twin Study.

BACKGROUND: Both genetic and environmental influences have been shown to contribute to the association between physical activity and overall academic performance. The authors examined whether leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) shares genetic and environmental variances between spelling, essay writing, reading aloud, reading comprehension, and mathematics in early adolescence. Moreover, they investigated whether genetic polymorphisms associated with physical activity behavior affect these academic skills. METHODS: Participants were 12-year-old Finnish twins (n = 4356-4370 twins/academic skill, 49% girls). Academic skills were assessed by teachers, and LTPA was self-reported. Polygenic scores for physical activity behavior were constructed from the UK Biobank. Quantitative genetic modeling and linear regression models were used to analyze the data. RESULTS: The trait correlations between LTPA and academic skills were significant but weak (r = .05-.08). The highest trait correlation was found between LTPA and mathematics. A significant genetic correlation was revealed between LTPA and essay writing (rA = .14). Regarding polygenic scores of physical activity, the highest correlations were found with reading comprehension, spelling, and essay writing, but these results only approached statistical significance (P values = .09-.15). CONCLUSIONS: The authors' results suggest that reading and writing are the academic skills that most likely share a common genetic background with LTPA.

Teacher-rated aggression and co-occurring behaviors and emotional problems among schoolchildren in four population-based European cohorts.

Aggressive behavior in school is an ongoing concern. The current focus is on specific manifestations such as bullying, but the behavior is broad and heterogenous. Children spend a substantial amount of time in school, but their behaviors in the school setting tend to be less well characterized than at home. Because aggression may index multiple behavioral problems, we used three validated instruments to assess means, correlations and gender differences of teacher-rated aggressive behavior with co-occurring externalizing/internalizing problems and social behavior in 39,936 schoolchildren aged 7-14 from 4 population-based cohorts from Finland, the Netherlands, and the UK. Correlations of aggressive behavior were high with all other externalizing problems (r: 0.47-0.80) and lower with internalizing problems (r: 0.02-0.39). A negative association was observed with prosocial behavior (r: -0.33 to -0.54). Mean levels of aggressive behavior differed significantly by gender. Despite the higher mean levels of aggressive behavior in boys, the correlations were notably similar for boys and girls (e.g., aggressive-hyperactivity correlations: 0.51-0.75 boys, 0.47-0.70 girls) and did not vary greatly with respect to age, instrument or cohort. Thus, teacher-rated aggressive behavior rarely occurs in isolation; boys and girls with problems of aggressive behavior likely require help with other behavioral and emotional problems. Important to note, higher aggressive behavior is not only associated with higher amounts of other externalizing and internalizing problems but also with lower levels of prosocial behavior.

Higher aggression is related to poorer academic performance in compulsory education.

BACKGROUND: To conduct a comprehensive assessment of the association between aggression and academic performance in compulsory education. METHOD: We studied aggression and academic performance in over 27,000 individuals from four European twin cohorts participating in the ACTION consortium (Aggression in Children: Unraveling gene-environment interplay to inform Treatment and InterventiON strategies). Individual level data on aggression at ages 7-16 were assessed by three instruments (Achenbach System of Empirically Based Assessment, Multidimensional Peer Nomination Inventory, Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire) including parental, teacher and self-reports. Academic performance was measured with teacher-rated grade point averages (ages 12-14) or standardized test scores (ages 12-16). Random effect meta-analytical correlations with academic performance were estimated for parental ratings (in all four cohorts) and self-ratings (in three cohorts). RESULTS: All between-family analyses indicated significant negative aggression-academic performance associations with correlations ranging from -.06 to -.33. Results were similar across different ages, instruments and raters and either with teacher-rated grade point averages or standardized test scores as measures of academic performance. Meta-analytical r's were -.20 and -.23 for parental and self-ratings, respectively. In within-family analyses of all twin pairs, the negative aggression-academic performance associations were statistically significant in 14 out of 17 analyses (r = -.17 for parental- and r = -.16 for self-ratings). Separate analyses in monozygotic (r = -.07 for parental and self-ratings), same-sex dizygotic (r's = -.16 and -.17 for parental and self-ratings) and opposite-sex dizygotic (r's = -.21 and -.19 for parental and self-ratings) twin pairs suggested partial confounding by genetic effects. CONCLUSIONS: There is a robust negative association between aggression and academic performance in compulsory education. Part of these associations were explained by shared genetic effects, but some evidence of a negative association between aggression and academic performance remained even in within-family analyses of monozygotic twin pairs.

Genome-wide association meta-analysis of nicotine metabolism and cigarette consumption measures in smokers of European descent.

Smoking behaviors, including amount smoked, smoking cessation, and tobacco-related diseases, are altered by the rate of nicotine clearance. Nicotine clearance can be estimated using the nicotine metabolite ratio (NMR) (ratio of 3'hydroxycotinine/cotinine), but only in current smokers. Advancing the genomics of this highly heritable biomarker of CYP2A6, the main metabolic enzyme for nicotine, will also enable investigation of never and former smokers. We performed the largest genome-wide association study (GWAS) to date of the NMR in European ancestry current smokers (n = 5185), found 1255 genome-wide significant variants, and replicated the chromosome 19 locus. Fine-mapping of chromosome 19 revealed 13 putatively causal variants, with nine of these being highly putatively causal and mapping to CYP2A6, MAP3K10, ADCK4, and CYP2B6. We also identified a putatively causal variant on chromosome 4 mapping to TMPRSS11E and demonstrated an association between TMPRSS11E variation and a UGT2B17 activity phenotype. Together the 14 putatively causal SNPs explained ~38% of NMR variation, a substantial increase from the ~20 to 30% previously explained. Our additional GWASs of nicotine intake biomarkers showed that cotinine and smoking intensity (cotinine/cigarettes per day (CPD)) shared chromosome 19 and chromosome 4 loci with the NMR, and that cotinine and a more accurate biomarker, cotinine + 3'hydroxycotinine, shared a chromosome 15 locus near CHRNA5 with CPD and Pack-Years (i.e., cumulative exposure). Understanding the genetic factors influencing smoking-related traits facilitates epidemiological studies of smoking and disease, as well as assists in optimizing smoking cessation support, which in turn will reduce the enormous personal and societal costs associated with smoking.

Associations of Alcohol Consumption With Epigenome-Wide DNA Methylation and Epigenetic Age Acceleration: Individual-Level and Co-twin Comparison Analyses.

BACKGROUND: DNA methylation may play a role in the progression from normative to problematic drinking and underlie adverse health outcomes associated with alcohol misuse. We examined the association between alcohol consumption and DNA methylation patterns using 3 approaches: a conventional epigenome-wide association study (EWAS); a co-twin comparison design, which controls for genetic and environmental influences that twins share; and a regression of age acceleration, defined as a discrepancy between chronological age and DNA methylation age, on alcohol consumption. METHODS: Participants came from the Finnish Twin Cohorts (FinnTwin12/FinnTwin16; N = 1,004; 55% female; average age = 23 years). Individuals reported the number of alcoholic beverages consumed in the past week, and epigenome-wide DNA methylation was assessed in whole blood using the Infinium HumanMethylation450 BeadChip. RESULTS: In the EWAS, alcohol consumption was significantly related to methylation at 24 CpG sites. When evaluating whether differences between twin siblings (185 monozygotic pairs) in alcohol consumption predicted differences in DNA methylation, co-twin comparisons replicated 4 CpG sites from the EWAS and identified 23 additional sites. However, when we examined qualitative differences in drinking patterns between twins (heavy drinker vs. light drinker/abstainer or moderate drinker vs. abstainer; 44 pairs), methylation patterns did not significantly differ within twin pairs. Finally, individuals who reported higher alcohol consumption also exhibited greater age acceleration, though results were no longer significant after controlling for genetic and environmental influences shared by co-twins. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses offer insight into the associations between epigenetic variation and levels of alcohol consumption in young adulthood.

Frequent Alcohol Intoxication and High Alcohol Tolerance During Adolescence as Predictors of Mortality: A Birth Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: Long-term prospective studies evaluating the health burden that is consequent to adolescent drinking are needed. The aim of this study was to examine the predictive associations between self-reported alcohol tolerance and frequent intoxication at age 15-16 years and the risk of death by age 33 years. METHODS: A sample (n = 6,615; 49.3% males) of the Northern Finland Birth Cohort Study 1986 was studied. Self-reported alcohol tolerance (drinks needed to feel intoxicated) and frequency of alcohol intoxication at age 15-16 years were analyzed along with background variables and data regarding subsequent psychiatric diagnoses. Categories were formed for both predictive variables from self-reported tolerance and frequency of intoxication in mid-adolescence. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) for death by age 30 years. RESULTS: By the age of 33 years, of all 6,615 participants, 53 (.8%) were deceased. The HR for death by age 33 years was 3.08 (95% CI 1.17-8.07) among adolescents with high alcohol tolerance compared with adolescents without alcohol use or intoxication. The frequency of alcohol intoxication was also associated with mortality; HR 2.05 (95% CI 1.01-4.16) for those who had been intoxicated one to two times and HR 3.02 (95% CI 1.21-7.54) for those who had been intoxicated three or more times in the past 30 days compared with adolescents without intoxication. CONCLUSIONS: High self-reported alcohol tolerance and frequent alcohol intoxication during mid-adolescence significantly predicted death by age 33 years. These behaviors carry long-term repercussions with respect to premature loss of life. Substantial efforts should be made to diminish this mortality risk.

Association of age at first drink and first alcohol intoxication as predictors of mortality: a birth cohort study.

BACKGROUND: More information on the health-related repercussions of age at onset of adolescent drinking is needed. The aim of this study was to examine the associations between self-reported age at first drink and age at first alcohol intoxication with the risk of death by age 30. METHODS: The sample (n = 6564; 49.1% males) included all participants of the Northern Finland Birth Cohort Study 1986 (NFBC1986) for whom the two measures of adolescent drinking were available. Self-reported age at onset of first drink and first alcohol intoxication were analyzed along with background variables and data regarding subsequent psychiatric diagnoses. Adolescents were dichotomized into those reporting age at first drink and age at first intoxication before or after age 14. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) for death by age 30. RESULTS: By the age of 30, 0.7% (n = 47) of all 6564 participants were deceased. In the multivariable models, male gender and a history of illicit substance use in adolescence were associated with both all-cause mortality and mortality due to accidents or suicide. After controlling for confounding variables, age at first alcohol intoxication was associated with all-cause mortality (HR 2.33; 95% CI 1.04-5.20) as well as death due to accidents or suicide (HR 2.99; 95% CI 1.11-8.05). CONCLUSIONS: Earlier age at first intoxication carries long-term repercussions with respect to premature loss of life. Efforts should be made targeting the prolongation of initiating binge drinking in adolescence to diminish this mortality risk.

Using polygenic scores for identifying individuals at increased risk of substance use disorders in clinical and population samples.

Genome-wide, polygenic risk scores (PRS) have emerged as a useful way to characterize genetic liability. There is growing evidence that PRS may prove useful for early identification of those at increased risk for certain diseases. The current potential of PRS for alcohol use disorders (AUD) remains an open question. Using data from both a population-based sample [the FinnTwin12 (FT12) study] and a high-risk sample [the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism (COGA)], we examined the association between PRSs derived from genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of (1) alcohol dependence/alcohol problems, (2) alcohol consumption, and (3) risky behaviors with AUD and other substance use disorder (SUD) criteria. These PRSs explain ~2.5-3.5% of the variance in AUD (across FT12 and COGA) when all PRSs are included in the same model. Calculations of area under the curve (AUC) show PRS provide only a slight improvement over a model with age, sex, and ancestral principal components as covariates. While individuals in the top 20, 10, and 5% of the PRS distribution had greater odds of having an AUD compared to the lower end of the continuum in both COGA and FT12, the point estimates at each threshold were statistically indistinguishable. Those in the top 5% reported greater levels of licit (alcohol and nicotine) and illicit (cannabis and opioid) SUD criteria. PRSs are associated with risk for SUD in independent samples. However, usefulness for identifying those at increased risk in their current form is modest, at best. Improvement in predictive ability will likely be dependent on increasing the size of well-phenotyped discovery samples.

Genomic prediction of alcohol-related morbidity and mortality.

While polygenic risk scores (PRS) have been shown to predict many diseases and risk factors, the potential of genomic prediction in harm caused by alcohol use has not yet been extensively studied. Here, we built a novel polygenic risk score of 1.1 million variants for alcohol consumption and studied its predictive capacity in 96,499 participants from the FinnGen study and 39,695 participants from prospective cohorts with detailed baseline data and up to 25 years of follow-up time. A 1 SD increase in the PRS was associated with 11.2 g (=0.93 drinks) higher weekly alcohol consumption (CI = 9.85-12.58 g, p = 2.3 × 10-58). The PRS was associated with alcohol-related morbidity (4785 incident events) and the risk estimate between the highest and lowest quintiles of the PRS was 1.83 (95% CI = 1.66-2.01, p = 1.6 × 10-36). When adjusted for self-reported alcohol consumption, education, marital status, and gamma-glutamyl transferase blood levels in 28,639 participants with comprehensive baseline data from prospective cohorts, the risk estimate between the highest and lowest quintiles of the PRS was 1.58 (CI = 1.26-1.99, p = 8.2 × 10-5). The PRS was also associated with all-cause mortality with a risk estimate of 1.33 between the highest and lowest quintiles (CI = 1.20-1.47, p = 4.5 × 10-8) in the adjusted model. In conclusion, the PRS for alcohol consumption independently associates for both alcohol-related morbidity and all-cause mortality. Together, these findings underline the importance of heritable factors in alcohol-related health burden while highlighting how measured genetic risk for an important behavioral risk factor can be used to predict related health outcomes.

Harmonizing behavioral outcomes across studies, raters, and countries: application to the genetic analysis of aggression in the ACTION Consortium.

BACKGROUND: Aggression in children has genetic and environmental causes. Studies of aggression can pool existing datasets to include more complex models of social effects. Such analyses require large datasets with harmonized outcome measures. Here, we made use of a reference panel for phenotype data to harmonize multiple aggression measures in school-aged children to jointly analyze data from five large twin cohorts. METHODS: Individual level aggression data on 86,559 children (42,468 twin pairs) were available in five European twin cohorts measured by different instruments. A phenotypic reference panel was collected which enabled a model-based phenotype harmonization approach. A bi-factor integration model in the integrative data analysis framework was developed to model aggression across studies while adjusting for rater, age, and sex. Finally, harmonized aggression scores were analyzed to estimate contributions of genes, environment, and social interaction to aggression. The large sample size allowed adequate power to test for sibling interaction effects, with unique dynamics permitted for opposite-sex twins. RESULTS: The best-fitting model found a high level of overall heritability of aggression (~60%). Different heritability rates of aggression across sex were marginally significant, with heritability estimates in boys of ~64% and ~58% in girls. Sibling interaction effects were only significant in the opposite-sex twin pairs: the interaction effect of males on their female co-twin differed from the effect of females on their male co-twin. An aggressive female had a positive effect on male co-twin aggression, whereas more aggression in males had a negative influence on a female co-twin. CONCLUSIONS: Opposite-sex twins displayed unique social dynamics of aggressive behaviors in a joint analysis of a large, multinational dataset. The integrative data analysis framework, applied in combination with a reference panel, has the potential to elucidate broad, generalizable results in the investigation of common psychological traits in children.

Association of snus experimentation in late adolescence with daily cigarette smoking in early adulthood: A longitudinal study among Finnish men.

Aims: Swedish smokeless tobacco (snus) is a lower-risk tobacco product than cigarette smoking for individuals. However, the public health impact of snus use is less well studied. Critically, it is uncertain whether use of snus leads to the onset of smoking. This study aimed to investigate prospectively the association between snus experimentation in late adolescence and daily cigarette smoking in early adulthood among Finnish young men. Methods: Data were obtained from 1090 young men within the population-based FinnTwin12 cohort. At baseline (mean age 17 years), we assessed lifetime use of cigarettes and snus, plus other potential predictors of cigarette smoking. At follow-up (mean age 24 years), participants were categorized according to their current smoking status. The final analyses were conducted among 375 young men who were never smokers at baseline with adequate data on follow-up smoking status and other potential predictors of cigarette smoking. Results: Age-adjusted logistic regressions showed an increased risk of becoming a daily smoker at follow-up among those participants who had at least tried snus but had never smoked cigarettes at baseline (odds ratio (OR) 6.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.02-20.7), compared with those who had never used snus. When additionally adjusted for monthly alcohol intoxication, maternal smoking, and peer drug use, the association between snus experimentation and later daily cigarette smoking was attenuated, but remained significant (OR 3.94, 95% CI 1.22-12.7). Conclusions: Our data support the proposition that snus experimentation during late adolescence is longitudinally associated with daily cigarette smoking in early adulthood. Although a causal association cannot be inferred with certainty, snus experimentation might constitute an indicator of the propensity to proceed to regular snus use and initiation of use of other tobacco or nicotine products.