Neoadjuvant Nivolumab Plus Chemotherapy Followed By Response-Adaptive Therapy for HPV+ Oropharyngeal Cancer: OPTIMA II Phase 2 Open-Label Nonrandomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Immune checkpoint inhibitors improve survival in recurrent and/or metastatic head and neck cancer, yet their role in curative human papillomavirus-positive oropharyngeal cancer (HPV+ OPC) remains undefined. Neoadjuvant nivolumab and chemotherapy followed by response-adaptive treatment in HPV+ OPC may increase efficacy while reducing toxicity. Objective: To determine the deep response rate and tolerability of the addition of neoadjuvant nivolumab to chemotherapy followed by response-adapted locoregional therapy (LRT) in patients with HPV+ OPC. Design, Setting, and Participants: This phase 2 nonrandomized clinical trial conducted at a single academic center enrolled 77 patients with locoregionally advanced HPV+ OPC from 2017 to 2020. Data analyses were performed from February 10, 2021, to January 9, 2023. Interventions: Addition of nivolumab to neoadjuvant nab-paclitaxel and carboplatin (studied in the first OPTIMA trial) followed by response-adapted LRT in patients with HPV+ OPC stages III to IV. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcome was deep response rate to neoadjuvant nivolumab plus chemotherapy, defined as the proportion of tumors with 50% or greater shrinkage per the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors 1.1. Secondary outcomes were progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Swallowing function, quality of life, and tissue- and blood-based biomarkers, including programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression and circulating tumor HPV-DNA (ctHPV-DNA), were also evaluated. Results: The 73 eligible patients (median [range] age, 61 [37-82] years; 6 [8.2%] female; 67 [91.8%] male) started neoadjuvant nivolumab and chemotherapy. Deep responses were observed in 51 patients (70.8%; 95% CI, 0.59-0.81). Subsequent risk- and response-adaptive therapy was assigned as follows: group A, single-modality radiotherapy alone or transoral robotic surgery (28 patients); group B, intermediate-dose chemoradiotherapy of 45 to 50 Gray (34 patients); and group C, regular-dose chemoradiotherapy of 70 to 75 Gray (10 patients). Two-year PFS and OS were 90.0% (95% CI, 0.80-0.95) and 91.4% (95% CI, 0.82-0.96), respectively. By response-adapted group, 2-year PFS and OS for group A were 96.4% and 96.4%, and group B, 88.0% and 91.0%, respectively. Lower enteral feeding rates and changes in weight, as well as improved swallowing, were observed among patients who received response-adapted LRT. Pathologic complete response rate among patients who underwent transoral robotic surgery was 67.0%. PD-L1 expression was nonsignificantly higher for deeper responses and improved PFS, and ctHPV-DNA clearance was significantly associated with improved PFS. Conclusions and Relevance: This phase 2 nonrandomized clinical trial found that neoadjuvant nivolumab and chemotherapy followed by response-adapted LRT is feasible and has favorable tolerability, excellent OS, and improved functional outcomes in HPV+ OPC, including among patients with high-risk disease. Moreover, addition of nivolumab may benefit high PD-L1 expressors, and sensitive dynamic biomarkers (eg, ctHPV-DNA) are useful for patient selection. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03107182.

Acquired resistance to immunotherapy and chemoradiation in MYC amplified head and neck cancer.

The proto-oncogene MYC encodes a nuclear transcription factor that has an important role in a variety of cellular processes, such as cell cycle progression, proliferation, metabolism, adhesion, apoptosis, and therapeutic resistance. MYC amplification is consistently observed in aggressive forms of several solid malignancies and correlates with poor prognosis and distant metastases. While the tumorigenic effects of MYC in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) are well known, the molecular mechanisms by which the amplification of this gene may confer treatment resistance, especially to immune checkpoint inhibitors, remains under-investigated. Here we present a unique case of a patient with recurrent/metastatic (R/M) HNSCC who, despite initial response to nivolumab-based treatment, developed rapidly progressive metastatic disease after the acquisition of MYC amplification. We conducted comparative transcriptomic analysis of this patient's tumor at baseline and upon progression to interrogate potential molecular processes through which MYC may confer resistance to immunotherapy and/or chemoradiation and used TCGA-HNSC dataset and an institutional cohort to further explore clinicopathologic features and key molecular networks associated with MYC amplification in HNSCC. This study highlights MYC amplification as a potential mechanism of immune checkpoint inhibitor resistance and suggest its use as a predictive biomarker and potential therapeutic target in R/M HNSCC.

Breaking Ground in Recurrent or Metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma: Novel Therapies Beyond PD-L1 Immunotherapy.

The treatment for recurrent/metastatic (R/M) head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) with immune checkpoint inhibitors (anti-PD1) with or without chemotherapy has led to an improvement in survival. Yet, despite this therapeutic advancement, only 15%-19% of patients remain alive at four years, highlighting the poor survival and unmet need for improved therapies for this patient population. Some of the key evolving novel therapeutics beyond anti-PD1 in R/M HNSCC have included therapeutic vaccine therapies, bispecific antibodies/fusion proteins and multitargeted kinase inhibitors, and antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs). Multiple concurrent investigations of novel therapeutics for patients with R/M HNSCC beyond anti-PD(L)1 inhibition are currently underway with some promising early results. Beyond immune checkpoint inhibition, novel immunotherapeutic strategies including therapeutic vaccines ranging from targeting human papillomavirus-specific epitopes to personalized neoantigen vaccines are ongoing with some early efficacy signals and large, randomized trials. Other novel weapons including bispecific antibodies, fusion proteins, and multitargeted kinase inhibitors leverage multiple concurrent targets and modulation of the tumor microenvironment to harness antitumor immunity and inhibition of protumorigenic signaling pathways with emerging promising results. Finally, as with other solid tumors, ADCs remain a promising therapeutic intervention either alone or in combination with immunotherapy for patients with R/M HNSCC. With early enthusiasm across novel therapies in R/M HNSCC, results of larger randomized trials in R/M HNSCC are eagerly awaited.

Differential clustering of visual and choice- and saccade-related activity in macaque V3A and CIP.

Neurons in sensory and motor cortices tend to aggregate in clusters with similar functional properties. Within the primate dorsal ("where") pathway, an important interface between three-dimensional (3-D) visual processing and motor-related functions consists of two hierarchically organized areas: V3A and the caudal intraparietal (CIP) area. In these areas, 3-D visual information, choice-related activity, and saccade-related activity converge, often at the single-neuron level. Characterizing the clustering of functional properties in areas with mixed selectivity, such as these, may help reveal organizational principles that support sensorimotor transformations. Here we quantified the clustering of visual feature selectivity, choice-related activity, and saccade-related activity by performing correlational and parametric comparisons of the responses of well-isolated, simultaneously recorded neurons in macaque monkeys. Each functional domain showed statistically significant clustering in both areas. However, there were also domain-specific differences in the strength of clustering across the areas. Visual feature selectivity and saccade-related activity were more strongly clustered in V3A than in CIP. In contrast, choice-related activity was more strongly clustered in CIP than in V3A. These differences in clustering may reflect the areas' roles in sensorimotor processing. Stronger clustering of visual and saccade-related activity in V3A may reflect a greater role in within-domain processing, as opposed to cross-domain synthesis. In contrast, stronger clustering of choice-related activity in CIP may reflect a greater role in synthesizing information across functional domains to bridge perception and action.NEW & NOTEWORTHY The occipital and parietal cortices of macaque monkeys are bridged by hierarchically organized areas V3A and CIP. These areas support 3-D visual transformations, carry choice-related activity during 3-D perceptual tasks, and possess saccade-related activity. This study quantifies the functional clustering of neuronal response properties within V3A and CIP for each of these domains. The findings reveal domain-specific cross-area differences in clustering that may reflect the areas' roles in sensorimotor processing.

Evolutionary dynamics of tipifarnib in HRAS mutated head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is a highly prevalent malignancy worldwide, with a significant proportion of patients developing recurrent and/or metastatic (R/M) disease. Despite recent advances in therapy, the prognosis for patients with advanced HNSCC remains poor. Here, we present the case of a patient with recurrent metastatic HNSCC harboring an HRAS G12S mutation who achieved a durable response to treatment with tipifarnib, a selective inhibitor of farnesyltransferase. The patient was a 48-year-old woman who had previously received multiple lines of therapy with no significant clinical response. However, treatment with tipifarnib resulted in a durable partial response that lasted 8 months. Serial genomic and transcriptomic analyses demonstrated upregulation of YAP1 and AXL in metastatic lesions compared with the primary tumor, the evolution of the tumor microenvironment from an immune-enriched to a fibrotic subtype with increased angiogenesis, and activation of the PI3K/AKT/mTOR pathway in tipifarnib treatment. Lastly, in HRAS-mutated PDXs and in the syngeneic HRAS model, we demonstrated that tipifarnib efficacy is limited by activation of the AKT pathway, and dual treatment with tipifarnib and the PI3K inhibitor, BYL719, resulted in enhanced anti-tumor efficacy. Our case study highlights the potential of targeting HRAS mutations with tipifarnib in R/M HNSCC and identifies potential mechanisms of acquired resistance to tipifarnib, along with immuno-, chemo-, and radiation therapy. Preclinical results provide a firm foundation for further investigation of drug combinations of HRAS-and PI3K -targeting therapeutics in R/M HRAS-driven HNSCC.

Hierarchical computation of 3D motion across macaque areas MT and FST.

Computing behaviorally relevant representations of three-dimensional (3D) motion from two-dimensional (2D) retinal signals is critical for survival. To ascertain where and how the primate visual system performs this computation, we recorded from the macaque middle temporal (MT) area and its downstream target, the fundus of the superior temporal sulcus (area FST). Area MT is a key site of 2D motion processing, but its role in 3D motion processing is controversial. The functions of FST remain highly underexplored. To distinguish representations of 3D motion from those of 2D retinal motion, we contrast responses to multiple motion cues during a motion discrimination task. The results reveal a hierarchical transformation whereby many FST but not MT neurons are selective for 3D motion. Modeling results further show how generalized, cue-invariant representations of 3D motion in FST may be created by selectively integrating the output of 2D motion selective MT neurons.

A comprehensive AI-driven analysis of large-scale omic datasets reveals novel dual-purpose targets for the treatment of cancer and aging.

As aging and tumorigenesis are tightly interconnected biological processes, targeting their common underlying driving pathways may induce dual-purpose anti-aging and anti-cancer effects. Our transcriptomic analyses of 16,740 healthy samples demonstrated tissue-specific age-associated gene expression, with most tumor suppressor genes downregulated during aging. Furthermore, a large-scale pan-cancer analysis of 11 solid tumor types (11,303 cases and 4431 control samples) revealed that many cellular processes, such as protein localization, DNA replication, DNA repair, cell cycle, and RNA metabolism, were upregulated in cancer but downregulated in healthy aging tissues, whereas pathways regulating cellular senescence were upregulated in both aging and cancer. Common cancer targets were identified by the AI-driven target discovery platform-PandaOmics. Age-associated cancer targets were selected and further classified into four groups based on their reported roles in lifespan. Among the 51 identified age-associated cancer targets with anti-aging experimental evidence, 22 were proposed as dual-purpose targets for anti-aging and anti-cancer treatment with the same therapeutic direction. Among age-associated cancer targets without known lifespan-regulating activity, 23 genes were selected based on predicted dual-purpose properties. Knockdown of histone demethylase KDM1A, one of these unexplored candidates, significantly extended lifespan in Caenorhabditis elegans. Given KDM1A's anti-cancer activities reported in both preclinical and clinical studies, our findings propose KDM1A as a promising dual-purpose target. This is the first study utilizing an innovative AI-driven approach to identify dual-purpose target candidates for anti-aging and anti-cancer treatment, supporting the value of AI-assisted target identification for drug discovery.

New insights into RAS in head and neck cancer.

RAS genes are known to be dysregulated in cancer for several decades, and substantial effort has been dedicated to develop agents that reduce RAS expression or block RAS activation. The recent introduction of RAS inhibitors for cancer patients highlights the importance of comprehending RAS alterations in head and neck cancer (HNC). In this regard, we examine the published findings on RAS alterations and pathway activations in HNC, and summarize their role in HNC initiation, progression, and metastasis. Specifically, we focus on the intrinsic role of mutated-RAS on tumor cell signaling and its extrinsic role in determining tumor-microenvironment (TME) heterogeneity, including promoting angiogenesis and enhancing immune escape. Lastly, we summarize the intrinsic and extrinsic role of RAS alterations on therapy resistance to outline the potential of targeting RAS using a single agent or in combination with other therapeutic agents for HNC patients with RAS-activated tumors.

Neuronal Representations Supporting Three-Dimensional Vision in Nonhuman Primates.

The visual system must reconstruct the dynamic, three-dimensional (3D) world from ambiguous two-dimensional (2D) retinal images. In this review, we synthesize current literature on how the visual system of nonhuman primates performs this transformation through multiple channels within the classically defined dorsal (where) and ventral (what) pathways. Each of these channels is specialized for processing different 3D features (e.g., the shape, orientation, or motion of objects, or the larger scene structure). Despite the common goal of 3D reconstruction, neurocomputational differences between the channels impose distinct information-limiting constraints on perception. Convergent evidence further points to the little-studied area V3A as a potential branchpoint from which multiple 3D-fugal processing channels diverge. We speculate that the expansion of V3A in humans may have supported the emergence of advanced 3D spatial reasoning skills. Lastly, we discuss future directions for exploring 3D information transmission across brain areas and experimental approaches that can further advance the understanding of 3D vision.

Mutated HRAS Activates YAP1-AXL Signaling to Drive Metastasis of Head and Neck Cancer.

The survival rate for patients with head and neck cancer (HNC) diagnosed with cervical lymph node (cLN) or distant metastasis is low. Genomic alterations in the HRAS oncogene are associated with advanced tumor stage and metastasis in HNC. Elucidation of the molecular mechanisms by which mutated HRAS (HRASmut) facilitates HNC metastasis could lead to improved treatment options for patients. Here, we examined metastasis driven by mutant HRAS in vitro and in vivo using HRASmut human HNC cell lines, patient-derived xenografts, and a novel HRASmut syngeneic model. Genetic and pharmacological manipulations indicated that HRASmut was sufficient to drive invasion in vitro and metastasis in vivo. Targeted proteomic analysis showed that HRASmut promoted AXL expression via suppressing the Hippo pathway and stabilizing YAP1 activity. Pharmacological blockade of HRAS signaling with the farnesyltransferase inhibitor tipifarnib activated the Hippo pathway and reduced the nuclear export of YAP1, thus suppressing YAP1-mediated AXL expression and metastasis. AXL was required for HRASmut cells to migrate and invade in vitro and to form regional cLN and lung metastases in vivo. In addition, AXL-depleted HRASmut tumors displayed reduced lymphatic and vascular angiogenesis in the primary tumor. Tipifarnib treatment also regulated AXL expression and attenuated VEGFA and VEGFC expression, thus regulating tumor-induced vascular formation and metastasis. Our results indicate that YAP1 and AXL are crucial factors for HRASmut-induced metastasis and that tipifarnib treatment can limit the metastasis of HNC tumors with HRAS mutations by enhancing YAP1 cytoplasmic sequestration and downregulating AXL expression. SIGNIFICANCE: Mutant HRAS drives metastasis of head and neck cancer by switching off the Hippo pathway to activate the YAP1-AXL axis and to stimulate lymphovascular angiogenesis.

Behavioral signatures of Y-like neuronal responses in human vision.

Retinal ganglion cells initiating the magnocellular/Y-cell visual pathways respond nonlinearly to high spatial frequencies (SFs) and temporal frequencies (TFs). This nonlinearity is implicated in the processing of contrast modulation (CM) stimuli in cats and monkeys, but its contribution to human visual perception is not well understood. Here, we evaluate human psychophysical performance for CM stimuli, consisting of a high SF grating carrier whose contrast is modulated by a low SF sinewave envelope. Subjects reported the direction of motion of CM envelopes or luminance modulation (LM) gratings at different eccentricities. The performance on SF (for LMs) or carrier SF (for CMs) was measured for different TFs (LMs) or carrier TFs (CMs). The best performance for LMs was at lower TFs and SFs, decreasing systematically with eccentricity. However, performance with CMs was bandpass with carrier SF, largely independent of carrier TF, and at the highest carrier TF (20 Hz) decreased minimally with eccentricity. Since the nonlinear subunits of Y-cells respond better at higher TFs compared to the linear response components and respond best at higher SFs that are relatively independent of eccentricity, these results suggest that behavioral tasks employing CM stimuli might reveal nonlinear contributions of retinal Y-like cells to human perception.

Recommendations for Care of Survivors of Head and Neck Cancer.

This JAMA Clinical Guidelines Synopsis summarizes the American Head and Neck Society's 2021 consensus statement on care of survivors of head and neck cancer.

Characterizing Lymph Node Burden With Elective Unilateral Neck Irradiation in Human Papillomavirus-Positive Tonsil Squamous Cell Carcinoma: Defining the Upper Limits.

Objectives Elective unilateral neck irradiation in well-lateralized tonsil carcinoma for N2b disease is controversial. Metrics regarding nodal burden beyond the N-stage to define the upper limit of this de-escalation approach remain limited. We investigated the role of nodal number, level, and volume on outcomes in patients with well-lateralized tonsil carcinoma treated with this approach. Methods A total of 37 patients received radiotherapy (RT) with unilateral neck coverage for well-lateralized tonsil cancer. Of patients, 95% had p16+ disease, and 81% were staged with positron emission tomography/computed tomography. The majority of patients received definitive chemoradiation on prospective de-escalation trials. Ten patients had ipsilateral neck dissections and were treated adjuvantly. The median RT dose to the ipsilateral neck (generally II-IV) was 45 Gy. The effects of nodal number, max dimension, volume, and level on recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were to be analyzed via Cox proportional hazards (Cox-PH). Results After a median follow-up of 3.9 years, two-year RFS and two-year OS were 100% and 97%, respectively. Given the 0% contralateral recurrence rate, Cox-PH analysis was not performed. Of patients, 70% were American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 7th edition N2b, with a median number of nodes, number of nodal levels, max dimension, and volume of two, one, 3.4 cm, and 15.6 cc, respectively. There were several patients with low-lying nodes; aggregate nodal volume measured was up to 85.4 cc. Conclusion Unilateral neck irradiation in well-lateralized tonsil carcinoma resulted in no contralateral recurrence. Nodal volume, level, and number do not seem to have a significant impact on outcomes.

Imaging Features of Intratumoral Injection of NBTXR3 for Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma Lymph Node Metastases.

NBTXR3 nanoparticle injection is a relatively novel radioenhancer for treatment of various cancers. CT scans following NBTXR3 injection of metastatic lymph nodes from head and neck squamous cell carcinoma were reviewed in a small series of patients. The radioenhancing appears as hyperattenuating, with a mean attenuation of the injected material of 1516 HU. The material was found to leak beyond the margins of the tumor in some cases.

A nanoengineered topical transmucosal cisplatin delivery system induces anti-tumor response in animal models and patients with oral cancer.

Despite therapeutic advancements, oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC) remains a difficult disease to treat. Systemic platinum-based chemotherapy often leads to dose-limiting toxicity (DLT), affecting quality of life. PRV111 is a nanotechnology-based system for local delivery of cisplatin loaded chitosan particles, that penetrate tumor tissue and lymphatic channels while avoiding systemic circulation and toxicity. Here we evaluate PRV111 using animal models of oral cancer, followed by a clinical trial in patients with OCSCC. In vivo, PRV111 results in elevated cisplatin retention in tumors and negligible systemic levels, compared to the intravenous, intraperitoneal or intratumoral delivery. Furthermore, PRV111 produces robust anti-tumor responses in subcutaneous and orthotopic cancer models and results in complete regression of carcinogen-induced premalignant lesions. In a phase 1/2, open-label, single-arm trial (NCT03502148), primary endpoints of efficacy (≥30% tumor volume reduction) and safety (incidence of DLTs) of neoadjuvant PRV111 were reached, with 69% tumor reduction in ~7 days and over 87% response rate. Secondary endpoints (cisplatin biodistribution, loco-regional control, and technical success) were achieved. No DLTs or drug-related serious adverse events were reported. No locoregional recurrences were evident in 6 months. Integration of PRV111 with current standard of care may improve health outcomes and survival of patients with OCSCC.

AL101, a gamma-secretase inhibitor, has potent antitumor activity against adenoid cystic carcinoma with activated NOTCH signaling.

Adenoid cystic carcinoma (ACC) is an aggressive salivary gland malignancy with limited treatment options for recurrent or metastatic disease. Due to chemotherapy resistance and lack of targeted therapeutic approaches, current treatment options for the localized disease are limited to surgery and radiation, which fails to prevent locoregional recurrences and distant metastases in over 50% of patients. Approximately 20% of patients with ACC carry NOTCH-activating mutations that are associated with a distinct phenotype, aggressive disease, and poor prognosis. Given the role of NOTCH signaling in regulating tumor cell behavior, NOTCH inhibitors represent an attractive potential therapeutic strategy for this subset of ACC. AL101 (osugacestat) is a potent γ-secretase inhibitor that prevents activation of all four NOTCH receptors. While this investigational new drug has demonstrated antineoplastic activity in several preclinical cancer models and in patients with advanced solid malignancies, we are the first to study the therapeutic benefit of AL101 in ACC. Here, we describe the antitumor activity of AL101 using ACC cell lines, organoids, and patient-derived xenograft models. Specifically, we find that AL101 has potent antitumor effects in in vitro and in vivo models of ACC with activating NOTCH1 mutations and constitutively upregulated NOTCH signaling pathway, providing a strong rationale for evaluation of AL101 in clinical trials for patients with NOTCH-driven relapsed/refractory ACC.

Parallel processing, hierarchical transformations, and sensorimotor associations along the 'where' pathway.

Visually guided behaviors require the brain to transform ambiguous retinal images into object-level spatial representations and implement sensorimotor transformations. These processes are supported by the dorsal 'where' pathway. However, the specific functional contributions of areas along this pathway remain elusive due in part to methodological differences across studies. We previously showed that macaque caudal intraparietal (CIP) area neurons possess robust 3D visual representations, carry choice- and saccade-related activity, and exhibit experience-dependent sensorimotor associations (Chang et al., 2020b). Here, we used a common experimental design to reveal parallel processing, hierarchical transformations, and the formation of sensorimotor associations along the 'where' pathway by extending the investigation to V3A, a major feedforward input to CIP. Higher-level 3D representations and choice-related activity were more prevalent in CIP than V3A. Both areas contained saccade-related activity that predicted the direction/timing of eye movements. Intriguingly, the time course of saccade-related activity in CIP aligned with the temporally integrated V3A output. Sensorimotor associations between 3D orientation and saccade direction preferences were stronger in CIP than V3A, and moderated by choice signals in both areas. Together, the results explicate parallel representations, hierarchical transformations, and functional associations of visual and saccade-related signals at a key juncture in the 'where' pathway.

Phase I study of nab-paclitaxel-based induction followed by nab-paclitaxel-based concurrent chemotherapy and re-irradiation in previously treated head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Recurrent head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is associated with poor overall survival (OS). Prior studies suggested incorporation of nab-paclitaxel (A) may improve outcomes in recurrent HNSCC. METHODS: This Phase I study evaluated induction with carboplatin and A followed by concomitant FHX (infusional 5-fluorouracil, hydroxyurea and twice-daily radiation therapy administered every other week) plus A with cohort dose escalation ranging from 10-100 mg/m2 in recurrent HNSCC. The primary endpoint was maximally tolerated dose (MTD) and dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) of A when given in combination with FHX (AFHX). RESULTS: Forty-eight eligible pts started induction; 28 pts started AFHX and were evaluable for toxicity. Two DLTs occurred (both Grade 4 mucositis) at a dose level 20 mg/m2. No further DLTs were observed with subsequent dose escalation. The MTD and recommended Phase II dose (RP2D) of A was 100 mg/m2. CONCLUSIONS: In this Phase I study, the RP2D of A with FHX is 100 mg/m2 (AFHX). The role of re-irradiation with immunotherapy warrants further investigation. CLINICAL TRIAL INFORMATION: This clinical trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01847326.

Development and Validation of a Decision Analytical Model for Posttreatment Surveillance for Patients With Oropharyngeal Carcinoma.

Importance: Clinical practice regarding posttreatment radiologic surveillance for patients with oropharyngeal carcinoma (OPC) is neither adapted to individual patient risk nor fully evidence based. Objectives: To construct a microsimulation model for posttreatment OPC progression and use it to optimize surveillance strategies while accounting for both tumor stage and human papillomavirus (HPV) status. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this decision analytical modeling study, a Markov model of 3-year posttreatment patient trajectories was created. The training data source was the American College of Surgeon's National Cancer Database from 2010 to 2015. The external validation data set was the 2016 International Collaboration on Oropharyngeal Cancer Network for Staging (ICON-S) study. Training data comprised 2159 patients with OPC treated with primary radiotherapy who had known HPV status and disease staging information. Patients with American Joint Committee on Cancer, 7th edition stage III to IVB disease and those with clinical metastases during the time of primary treatment were included. Data were analyzed from August 1 to October 31, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Main outcomes included disease stage and HPV status, specific disease transition probabilities, and latency of surveillance regimens, defined as time between recurrence incidence and disease discovery. Results: Training data consisted of 2159 total patients (1708 men [79.1%]; median age, 59.6 years [range, 40-90 years]; 401 with stage III disease, 1415 with stage IVA disease, and 343 with stage IVB disease). Cohorts predominantly had HPV-negative disease (1606 [74.4%]). With model-optimized regimens, recurrent disease was discovered a mean of 0.6 months (95% CI, 0.5-0.8 months) earlier than with a standard surveillance regimen based on current clinical guidelines. Recurrent disease was discovered using the optimized regimens without significant reduction in sensitivity. Compared with strategies based on reimbursement guidelines, the model-optimized regimens found disease a mean of 1.8 months (95% CI, 1.3-2.3 months) earlier. Conclusions and Relevance: Optimized, risk-stratified surveillance regimens consistently outperformed nonoptimized strategies. These gains were obtained without requiring any additional imaging studies. This approach to risk-stratified surveillance optimization is generalizable to a broad range of tumor types and risk factors.