A method for quantitative risk appraisal for pesticide risk assessments.

Pesticide risk assessments are fraught with uncertainties that arise from the process of estimating exposure to and toxicity of chemicals. Regulatory agencies resolve those uncertainties in a health-protective (conservative) manner, typically acknowledging only inter- and intraspecies uncertainties quantitatively. Other uncertainties may be acknowledged qualitatively, but those safety factors (SF) are not enumerated. Quantitative risk appraisal may be used to enumerate the multiplicative SF generated by conservative assumptions regarding uncertainties. The magnitude of SF derived from decision points dealing with historically unquantified uncertainty may far exceed explicit SF used to gauge acceptable margins of exposure (MoE). Examination of the basis for some previously unenumerated SF may justify potential changes in regulatory practices and policies. Using past risk assessments of 3 pesticides (mevinphos, parathion, and methyl iodide) for which the California Department of Pesticide Regulation found unacceptable risk as examples, the previously unquantified SF ranged from 47 to 1 × 106 for scenarios involving handlers, reentry workers, and bystanders.

Evaluation of potential human health effects associated with the agricultural uses of 1,3-D: Spatial and temporal stochastic risk analysis.

Dow AgroSciences (DAS) markets and sells 1,3-Dichloropropene (1,3-D), the active ingredient in Telone®, which is used as a pre-plant soil fumigant nematicide in economically important crops in California. 1,3-D has been regulated as a "probable human carcinogen" and the California Department of Pesticide Regulation limits use of 1,3-D based on human health risk assessments for bystanders. This paper presents a risk characterization for bystanders based on advances in the assessment of both exposure and hazard. The revised bystander risk assessment incorporates significant advances: 1) new data on residency duration and mobility in communities where 1,3-D is in high demand; 2) new information on spatial and temporal concentrations of 1,3-D in air based on multi-year modeling using a validated model; and 3) a new stochastic spatial and temporal model of long-term exposures. Predicted distributions of long-term, chronic exposures indicate that current, and anticipated uses of 1,3-D would result in lifetime average daily doses lower than 0.002mg/kg/d, a dose associated with theoretical lifetime excess cancer risk of <10(-5) to >95% of the local population based on a non-threshold risk assessment approach. Additionally, examination of 1,3-D toxicity studies including new chronic toxicity data and mechanism of action supports the use of a non-linear, threshold based risk assessment approach. The estimated maximum annual average daily dose of <0.0016mg/kg/d derived from the updated exposure assessment was then compared with a threshold point of departure. The calculated margin of exposure is >1000-fold, a clear indication of acceptable risk for human health. In summary, the best available science supports 1,3-D's threshold nature of hazard and the revised exposure assessment supports that current agricultural uses of 1,3-D are associated with reasonable certainty of no harm, i.e., estimated long-term exposures pose insignificant health risks to bystanders even when the non-threshold approach is assumed.

Cyphenothrin Flea and Tick Squeeze-On for Dogs: Evaluation of Potential Health Risks Based on the Results of Observational Biological Monitoring.

An observational biomonitoring study was conducted involving adults and children in households that purchased and applied a cyphenothrin-containing spot-on product for dogs as part of their normal pet care practices. The 3- to 6-yr-old children had greater exposure than the adult applicators in the same house, 3.8 and 0.6 µg/kg body weight, respectively. The mean measured values in children were 13-fold lower than those estimated using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) current standard operating procedures (SOP) for pet products (assuming 5% dermal absorption), although the maximum absorbed dosage of one child on one day was equivalent to the default value derived from the SOPs. With regard to potential human health risks, it can be concluded that despite the inherent conservatism in both the exposure and toxicology data, the margins of exposure (MOE) were consistently greater than 100 for average, 95th percentile, and maximum exposures. More specifically, the results of this study demonstrated that the MOE were consistently greater than 1,000 for mean exposures and exceeded 100 for 95th percentile and maximum measured exposures, which clearly indicates a reasonable certainty of no harm when using the cyphenothrin spot-on products. It is also noteworthy that Sergeant's spot-on products containing cyphenothrin currently sold in the United States have lower weight percentages of active ingredient and lower applied amounts than those used by all but two of the participant households in this study.

Handler, bystander and reentry exposure to TCDD from application of Agent Orange by C-123 aircraft during the Vietnam War.

Using validated models and methods routinely employed by pesticide regulatory agencies, the absorbed dosages of Agent Orange (AO) herbicide contaminant 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) were estimated for mixer/loaders, applicators, and individuals in the vicinity of applications of AO by C-123 aircraft during the Vietnam War. Resulting dosages of TCDD were then transformed to estimates of adipose residues, and compared to population biomonitoring of known mixer/loaders and applicators as well as ground troops in Vietnam and civilians in the U.S. Results demonstrate that mixer/loaders and applicators had the greatest exposures and their measured residues of TCDD in adipose were consistent with the estimated exposures. Further, the potentially exposed ground troops, including those who could have been directly sprayed during aerial defoliation, had measured adipose residues that were consistent with those in civilian U.S. populations with no defined source of exposure exposures and both of those cohorts had orders of magnitude less exposure than the mixer/loaders or applicators. Despite the availability of validated exposure modeling methods for decades, the quantitative TCDD dose estimates presented here are the first of their kind for the Vietnam conflict.

Environmental fate and dietary exposures of humans to TCDD as a result of the spraying of Agent Orange in upland forests of Vietnam.

The fate and transport of 2,3,7,8-tetrachloro-p-dibenzodioxin (TCDD) released into the environment of South Vietnam (SVN) as a consequence of the aerial application of the herbicidal defoliant Agent Orange (AO) were simulated for a generic upland forest scenario and followed over a 50-year period (1965, 1968 and 1970 onwards). Modeled concentrations of TCDD in the environment were then used as inputs to a human exposure model, which focused on long-term exposures via the food chain. Intake rates and body burdens of TCDD were estimated for adult males over the course of the simulation period and compared to available biomonitoring data. One of the most important factors determining the magnitude of the simulated human exposure to TCDD was the fraction of the chemical deposited directly to soil (where it was assumed to have a degradation half-life of 10 or 15years) relative to the fraction assumed to remain on/in the forest canopy following the spray application (where it was assumed to have a degradation half-life of ≤48h). The simulated body burdens under the various scenarios considered were broadly consistent with the biomonitoring data from SVN collected in the mid-1980s to late 1990s. Taken together, the modeling results and empirical data suggest that highly elevated exposures to TCDD (i.e., body burdens in the several 100s of pg/g lipid range and greater) were not common among people inhabiting upland forest locations in SVN sprayed with AO and that peak and average body burdens were broadly similar to those of the general population of the U.S. in the 1970s and early 1980s. The model-based assessment is consistent with the 'hot spot' hypothesis i.e., potential exposures to TCDD linked to activities conducted on or near former bases where AO was stored are greater than potential exposures in areas subjected to aerial spraying.

Exposure to TCDD from base perimeter application of Agent Orange in Vietnam.

Using recognized methods routinely employed by pesticide regulatory agencies, the exposures of military personnel that were mixer/loader/applicators (M/L/A) of Agent Orange (AO) for perimeter foliage at bases during the Vietnam War were estimated. From the fraction of TCDD in AO, absorbed dosage of the manufacturing contaminant was estimated. Dermal exposure estimated from spray drift to residents of the bases was calculated using internationally recognized software that accounted for proximity, foliar density of application site, droplet size and wind speed among other factors, and produced estimates of deposition. Those that directly handled AO generally had much higher exposures than those further from the areas of use. The differences in exposure potential varied by M/L/A activity, but were typically orders of magnitude greater than bystanders. However, even the most-exposed M/L/A involved in perimeter application had lifetime exposures comparable to persons living in the U.S. at the time, i.e., ~1.3 to 5 pg TCDD/kg bodyweight.

Measurement of the temporal transferability of indoxacarb to cotton gloves from spot-on treated dogs.

The objectives of the studies reported herein were to (1) determine the minimum number of petting simulations required to load the maximum amount of test substance (indoxacarb) residue onto cotton gloves (the sampling medium) from spot-on treated dogs; and (2) using the number of petting simulations that resulted in maximal transfer, to conduct a second study that measured amount of residue dislodged via petting a dog as a function of the time interval after application. Maximal percent transfer of indoxacarb from spot-on treated dogs occurred after 10 repetitive petting simulations (consisting of 3 directional pet strokes each) and was approximately 1-2% of amount applied. Temporal measurements of mean indoxacarb transferability followed an exponential decay function, beginning at approximately 2% transfer on the day of application, and declining to 0.08% by d 30 post treatment.

Revised methods for estimating potential reentry exposure associated with indoor crack and crevice and perimeter application.

Surface deposition of insecticides applied as indoor residential foggers, baseboard or perimeter sprays, spot sprays, and crack-and-crevice (C&C) sprays represent pathways of unintentional, postapplication exposure for children and adults. Estimation of the magnitude of this exposure following an application event is associated with uncertainty due to many factors, including (1) surface residue deposition and distribution, (2) access to and the nature of contact with treated surfaces based on time-activity patterns of residents, and (3) the role of residue removal mechanisms such as cleaning treated surfaces, pesticide degradation or redistribution, and hand washing and bathing following contact. A comparative spatial deposition study was conducted involving broadcast, perimeter, and C&C application methods. Residues measured using a spatial grid of deposition dosimeters on floor surfaces demonstrated significantly lower residue concentrations in readily accessible areas following C&C and perimeter applications, versus broadcast treatment. Analyses of other monitoring studies support this finding. The implications of these findings are discussed for both screening-level and higher tier probabilistic postapplication, residential exposure assessment. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) current guidance on interpretation of deposition following C&C application is supported by data in this study and others that indicate a ratio of 10:1 for deposition for broadcast versus C&C application. However, the perimeter deposition data are quite similar to C&C deposition and do not support a 70/30 default relative to broadcast recommended by the U.S. EPA (2012).

Preformed biomarkers including dialkylphosphates (DAPs) in produce may confound biomonitoring in pesticide exposure and risk assessment.

Low levels of pesticides and their metabolites/degradates occur in produce when pesticides are used in conventional or organic crop protection. Human dietary and nonoccupational urine biomonitoring studies may be confounded by preformed pesticide biomarkers in the diet. The extent of formation of putative urine biomarkers, including malathion specific (MMA, MDA; malathion mono- and diacids), organophosphorus generic (DMP, DMTP, DMDTP; dimethyl-, dimethylthio-, and dimethydithiophosphate), pyrethroid generic (3-PBA; 3-phenoxybenzoic acid), and captan-specific metabolites (THPI; tetrahydrophthalimide), was measured in produce samples containing the parent pesticide. Every produce sample of 19 types of fruits and vegetables contained biomarkers of potential human exposure. A total of 134 of 157 (85%) samples contained more molar equivalent biomarkers than parent pesticide. Malathion and fenpropathrin were sprayed (1 lb/A), and the time-dependent formation of pesticide biomarkers in strawberries was investigated under field conditions typical of commercial production in California. Malathion and fenpropathrin residues were always below established residue tolerances. Malathion, MMA, and MDA dissipated, while DMP, DMTP, and DMDTP increased, during a 20 day study period following the preharvest interval. The mole ratios of biomarkers/(malathion + malaoxon) were always greater than 1 and increased from day 4 to day 23 postapplication. Fenpropathrin and 3-PBA also dissipated in strawberries during each monitoring period. The mole ratios of 3-PBA/fenpropathrin were always less than 1 and decreased from day 4 to day 14. The absorption of pesticide biomarkers in produce and excretion in urine would falsely indicate consumer pesticide exposure if used to reconstruct dose for risk characterization.

Comparison of four probabilistic models (CARES(®), Calendex™, ConsExpo, and SHEDS) to estimate aggregate residential exposures to pesticides.

Two deterministic models (US EPA's Office of Pesticide Programs Residential Standard Operating Procedures (OPP Residential SOPs) and Draft Protocol for Measuring Children's Non-Occupational Exposure to Pesticides by all Relevant Pathways (Draft Protocol)) and four probabilistic models (CARES(®), Calendex™, ConsExpo, and SHEDS) were used to estimate aggregate residential exposures to pesticides. The route-specific exposure estimates for young children (2-5 years) generated by each model were compared to evaluate data inputs, algorithms, and underlying assumptions. Three indoor exposure scenarios were considered: crack and crevice, fogger, and flying insect killer. Dermal exposure estimates from the OPP Residential SOPs and the Draft Protocol were 4.75 and 2.37 mg/kg/day (crack and crevice scenario) and 0.73 and 0.36 mg/kg/day (fogger), respectively. The dermal exposure estimates (99th percentile) for the crack and crevice scenario were 16.52, 12.82, 3.57, and 3.30 mg/kg/day for CARES, Calendex, SHEDS, and ConsExpo, respectively. Dermal exposure estimates for the fogger scenario from CARES and Calendex (1.50 and 1.47 mg/kg/day, respectively) were slightly higher than those from SHEDS and ConsExpo (0.74 and 0.55 mg/kg/day, respectively). The ConsExpo derived non-dietary ingestion estimates (99th percentile) under these two scenarios were higher than those from SHEDS, CARES, and Calendex. All models produced extremely low exposure estimates for the flying insect killer scenario. Using similar data inputs, the model estimates by route for these scenarios were consistent and comparable. Most of the models predicted exposures within a factor of 5 at the 50th and 99th percentiles. The differences identified are explained by activity assumptions, input distributions, and exposure algorithms.

Estimation of the percutaneous absorption of permethrin in humans using the parallelogram method.

The objective of this study was to develop an estimate of the percent dermal absorption of permethrin in humans to provide more accurate estimates of potential systemically absorbed dose associated with dermal exposure scenarios. Piperonyl butoxide (PBO) was used as a reference compound. The human percutaneous absorption estimate was based on the assumption that the ratio of in vivo dermal absorption (expressed as a percentage during a given time period) of permethrin through rat skin to in vitro dermal absorption through rat skin was the same as the ratio of in vivo dermal absorption in humans to in vitro dermal absorption with human skin, known as the parallelogram method. The ratio of dermal absorption by in vitro rat skin to absorption by in vitro human skin ranged from 6.7 to 15.4 (for a 24-h exposure period) with an average of 11. Data suggest in vivo human dermal absorption values for permethrin ranging from 1.4 to 3.3% when estimated based on 24-h in vivo rat values, and 2.5 to 5.7% based on 5-d in vivo rat values. The parallelogram method used to estimate dermal absorption of permethrin and PBO is supported by results from several other compounds for which in vivo and in vitro rat and human dermal absorption data exist. Collectively, these data indicate that estimating human dermal absorption from in vitro human and rat plus in vivo rat data are typically accurate within ±3-fold of the values measured in human subjects.

Experimental methods for determining permethrin dermal absorption.

The objectives of this study were to (1) determine the percutaneous absorption of radiolabeled permethrin and piperonyl butoxide (PBO) in vivo in rats and in vitro to permit a calculation of the ratio of in vitro to in vivo values, and (2) test a method of estimating in vivo human absorption. Carbon-14 labeled permethrin in ethanol solution was applied to the clipped skin of rats in vivo at doses of 2.25, 20, or 200 µg/cm2. As a reference compound, 14C-labeled PBO in isopropanol solution was applied to rat skin in vivo at a dose of 100 µg/cm2. All applications were washed at 24 h postapplication, and rats were sacrificed either at 24 h for permethrin or 5 d for both compounds. The radiolabel recovered from carcass, urine including cage wash, and feces was summed to determine percent absorption. For the 24-h time point, at doses of 2.25, 20, and 200 µg/cm2 of permethrin, values of 22, 22, and 28%, respectively, were obtained for in vivo rat percutaneous absorption (n=6 per dose). For the 5-d time point, at doses of 2.25, 20, and 200 µg/cm2 of permethrin, values of 38, 38, and 30%, respectively, were obtained for in vivo rat percutaneous absorption (n=6 per dose). The 5-d percutaneous absorption of 14C-PBO at 100 µg/cm2 was determined to be 42% (n=6). Dose and test duration did not exert a statistically significant effect on percutaneous absorption of permethrin in the rat in vivo. For in vitro absorption determination, 14C-permethrin in ethanol solution was applied to freshly excised human skin in an in vitro test system predictive of skin absorption in humans. Twenty-four hours after application, the radiolabel recovered from dermis and receptor fluid was summed to determine percent absorption. At doses of approximately 2.25, 20, and 200 µg/cm2 permethrin, values of 1, 3, and 2%, respectively, were obtained for percutaneous absorption (n=9 per dose). Excised human skin absorption of 14C-PBO at 100 µg/cm2 was determined to be 7% (n=9). Excised rat skin absorptions of permethrin at 2.25, 20, and 200 µg/cm2 were found to be 20, 18, and 24%, respectively (n=6 per dose), approximately 10-fold higher than human skin absorption. Excised rat skin absorption of PBO was also higher (35%) than the value obtained for human skin by a factor of about 5.

Deposition and spatial distribution of insecticides following fogger, perimeter sprays, spot sprays, and crack-and-crevice applications for treatment and control of indoor pests.

The indoor surface deposition and distribution of insecticides applied as foggers, baseboard or perimeter sprays, spot sprays and crack-and-crevice sprays represent distinct pathways of potential unintentional and unavoidable residential pesticide exposure of children and adults. Fogger, perimeter spray, crack-and-crevice, and spot sprays using registered commercial products were studied using three 5-part deposition plates positioned in unoccupied residences in Riverside, CA. Pesticide active ingredients included permethrin, chlorpyrifos, cyfluthrin, cypermethrin, and deltamethrin. Horizontal distribution factors of 100% (total release fogger in a small room), 50% (perimeter spray), 15% (crack-and-crevice), and 2% (spot spray) were assigned based upon application of selected commercial products by a licensed pest control operator and investigators who participated in these studies. This research reduces uncertainties associated with assessing human exposure following different application methods.

Assessing exposure to allied ground troops in the Vietnam War: a quantitative evaluation of the Stellman Exposure Opportunity Index model.

The Exposure Opportunity Index (EOI) is a proximity-based model developed to estimate relative exposure of ground troops in Vietnam to aerially applied herbicides. We conducted a detailed quantitative evaluation of the EOI model by using actual herbicide spray missions isolated in time and space. EOI scores were calculated for each of 36 hypothetical receptor location points associated with each spray mission for 30 herbicide missions for two time periods - day of herbicide application and day 2-3 post-application. Our analysis found an enormous range of EOI predictions with 500-1000-fold differences across missions directly under the flight path. This quantitative examination of the EOI suggests that extensive testing of the model's code is warranted. Researchers undertaking development of a proximity-based exposure model for epidemiologic studies of either Vietnam veterans or the Vietnamese population should conduct a thorough and realistic analysis of how precise and accurate the model results are likely to be and then assess whether the model results provide a useful basis for their planned epidemiologic studies.

Assessing exposure to allied ground troops in the Vietnam War: a comparison of AgDRIFT and Exposure Opportunity Index models.

The AgDRIFT aerial dispersion model is well validated and closely related to the AGDISP model developed by the USDA Forest Service to determine on- and off-target deposition and penetration of aerially applied pesticide through foliage of trees. The Exposure Opportunity Index (EOI) model was developed to estimate relative exposure of ground troops in Vietnam to aerially applied herbicides. We compared the output of the two models to determine whether their predictions were in substantial agreement, but found a total lack of concordance. While the AgDRIFT model estimated that ground-level deposition through foliage was reduced more than 20 orders of magnitude at less than 1 km from the flight line, the EOI model predicted deposition declines less than one order of magnitude 4 km from the flight line. Interestingly the EOI model predicts a four-fold variability in EOI on the flight line, where exposure should be essentially invariant because the spray apparatus is designed to apply herbicide at a constant rate. We believe that the EOI model cannot be used to provide individual exposure estimates for the purpose of conducting epidemiologic studies. Moreover, evaluation of the position data for both herbicide spray swaths and troop locations, together with the actual patterns of spray deposition predicted by the AgDRIFT model, suggests that precise individual-level exposure assessments for ground troops in Vietnam are impossible. However, we suggest that well-validated tools like AgDRIFT can be used to estimate exposure to groups of individuals.