A statistical theory of the strength of epidemics: an application to the Italian COVID-19 case.

The proposed theory defines a relative index of epidemic lethality that compares any two configurations in different observation periods, preferably one in the acute and the other in a mild epidemic phase. Raw mortality data represent the input, with no need to recognize the cause of death. Data are categorized according to the victims' age, which must be renormalized because older people have a greater probability of developing a level of physical decay (human damage), favouring critical pathologies and co-morbidities. The probabilistic dependence of human damage on renormalized age is related to a death criterion considering a virus spread by contagion and our capacity to cure the disease. Remarkably, this is reminiscent of the Weibull theory of the strength of brittle structures containing a population of crack-like defects, in the correlation between the statistical distribution of cracks and the risk of fracture at a prescribed stress level. Age-of-death scaling laws are predicted in accordance with data collected in Italian regions and provinces during the first wave of COVID-19, taken as representative examples to validate the theory. For the prevention of spread and the management of the epidemic, the various parameters of the theory shall be informed on other existing epidemiological models.

Membrane analogy for multi-material bars under torsion.

Prandtl's membrane analogy for the torsion problem of prismatic homogeneous bars is extended to multi-material cross sections. The linear elastic problem is governed by the same equations describing the deformation of an inflated membrane, differently tensioned in regions that correspond to the domains hosting different materials in the bar cross section, in a way proportional to the inverse of the material shear modulus. Multi-connected cross sections correspond to materials with vanishing stiffness inside the holes, implying infinite tension in the corresponding portions of the membrane. To define the interface constrains that allow to apply such a state of prestress to the membrane, a physical apparatus is proposed, which can be numerically modelled with a two-dimensional mesh implementable in commercial finite-element model codes. This approach presents noteworthy advantages with respect to the three-dimensional modelling of the twisted bar.

The role of frictional contact of constituent blocks on the stability of masonry domes.

The observation of old construction works confirms that masonry domes can withstand tensile hoop stresses, at least up to a certain level. Here, such tensile resistance, rather than a priori assumed as a property of the bulk material, is attributed to the contact forces that are developed at the interfaces between interlocked blocks under normal pressure, specified by Coulomb's friction law. According to this rationale, the aspect ratio of the blocks, as well as the bond pattern, becomes of fundamental importance. To investigate the complex assembly of blocks, supposed rigid, we present a non-smooth contact dynamic analysis, implemented in a custom software based on the Project Chrono C++ framework and complemented with parametric-design interfaces for pre- and post-processing complex geometries. Through this advanced tool, we investigate the role of frictional forces resisting hoop stresses in the stability of domes, either circular or oval, under static and dynamic loading, focusing, in particular, on the structural role played by the underlying drum and the surmounting tiburium.

Fluidic Microactuation of Flexible Electrodes for Neural Recording.

Soft and conductive nanomaterials like carbon nanotubes, graphene, and nanowire scaffolds have expanded the family of ultraflexible microelectrodes that can bend and flex with the natural movement of the brain, reduce the inflammatory response, and improve the stability of long-term neural recordings. However, current methods to implant these highly flexible electrodes rely on temporary stiffening agents that temporarily increase the electrode size and stiffness thus aggravating neural damage during implantation, which can lead to cell loss and glial activation that persists even after the stiffening agents are removed or dissolve. A method to deliver thin, ultraflexible electrodes deep into neural tissue without increasing the stiffness or size of the electrodes will enable minimally invasive electrical recordings from within the brain. Here we show that specially designed microfluidic devices can apply a tension force to ultraflexible electrodes that prevents buckling without increasing the thickness or stiffness of the electrode during implantation. Additionally, these "fluidic microdrives" allow us to precisely actuate the electrode position with micron-scale accuracy. To demonstrate the efficacy of our fluidic microdrives, we used them to actuate highly flexible carbon nanotube fiber (CNTf) microelectrodes for electrophysiology. We used this approach in three proof-of-concept experiments. First, we recorded compound action potentials in a soft model organism, the small cnidarian Hydra. Second, we targeted electrodes precisely to the thalamic reticular nucleus in brain slices and recorded spontaneous and optogenetically evoked extracellular action potentials. Finally, we inserted electrodes more than 4 mm deep into the brain of rats and detected spontaneous individual unit activity in both cortical and subcortical regions. Compared to syringe injection, fluidic microdrives do not penetrate the brain and prevent changes in intracranial pressure by diverting fluid away from the implantation site during insertion and actuation. Overall, the fluidic microdrive technology provides a robust new method to implant and actuate ultraflexible neural electrodes.