Deep Learning for Echo Analysis, Tracking, and Evaluation of Mitral Regurgitation (DELINEATE-MR).

BACKGROUND: Artificial intelligence, particularly deep learning (DL), has immense potential to improve the interpretation of transthoracic echocardiography (TTE). Mitral regurgitation (MR) is the most common valvular heart disease and presents unique challenges for DL, including the integration of multiple video-level assessments into a final study-level classification. METHODS: A novel DL system was developed to intake complete TTEs, identify color MR Doppler videos, and determine MR severity on a 4-step ordinal scale (none/trace, mild, moderate, and severe) using the reading cardiologist as a reference standard. This DL system was tested in internal and external test sets with performance assessed by agreement with the reading cardiologist, weighted κ, and area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for binary classification of both moderate or greater and severe MR. In addition to the primary 4-step model, a 6-step MR assessment model was studied with the addition of the intermediate MR classes of mild-moderate and moderate-severe with performance assessed by both exact agreement and ±1 step agreement with the clinical MR interpretation. RESULTS: A total of 61 689 TTEs were split into train (n=43 811), validation (n=8891), and internal test (n=8987) sets with an additional external test set of 8208 TTEs. The model had high performance in MR classification in internal (exact accuracy, 82%; κ=0.84; area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.98 for moderate/severe MR) and external test sets (exact accuracy, 79%; κ=0.80; area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.98 for moderate or greater MR). Most (63% internal and 66% external) misclassification disagreements were between none/trace and mild MR. MR classification accuracy was slightly higher using multiple TTE views (accuracy, 82%) than with only apical 4-chamber views (accuracy, 80%). In subset analyses, the model was accurate in the classification of both primary and secondary MR with slightly lower performance in cases of eccentric MR. In the analysis of the 6-step classification system, the exact accuracy was 80% and 76% with a ±1 step agreement of 99% and 98% in the internal and external test set, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This end-to-end DL system can intake entire echocardiogram studies to accurately classify MR severity and may be useful in helping clinicians refine MR assessments.

An ECG-based machine learning model for predicting new-onset atrial fibrillation is superior to age and clinical features in identifying patients at high stroke risk.

BACKGROUND: Several large trials have employed age or clinical features to select patients for atrial fibrillation (AF) screening to reduce strokes. We hypothesized that a machine learning (ML) model trained to predict AF risk from 12­lead electrocardiogram (ECG) would be more efficient than criteria based on clinical variables in indicating a population for AF screening to potentially prevent AF-related stroke. METHODS: We retrospectively included all patients with clinical encounters in Geisinger without a prior history of AF. Incidence of AF within 1 year and AF-related strokes within 3 years of the encounter were identified. AF-related stroke was defined as a stroke where AF was diagnosed at the time of stroke or within a year after the stroke. The efficiency of five methods was evaluated for selecting a cohort for AF screening. The methods were selected from four clinical trials (mSToPS, GUARD-AF, SCREEN-AF and STROKESTOP) and the ECG-based ML model. We simulated patient selection for the five methods between the years 2011 and 2014 and evaluated outcomes for 1 year intervals between 2012 and 2015, resulting in a total of twenty 1-year periods. Patients were considered eligible if they met the criteria before the start of the given 1-year period or within that period. The primary outcomes were numbers needed to screen (NNS) for AF and AF-associated stroke. RESULTS: The clinical trial models indicated large proportions of the population with a prior ECG for AF screening (up to 31%), coinciding with NNS ranging from 14 to 18 for AF and 249-359 for AF-associated stroke. At comparable sensitivity, the ECG ML model indicated a modest number of patients for screening (14%) and had the highest efficiency in NNS for AF (7.3; up to 60% reduction) and AF-associated stroke (223; up to 38% reduction). CONCLUSIONS: An ECG-based ML risk prediction model is more efficient than contemporary AF-screening criteria based on age alone or age and clinical features at indicating a population for AF screening to potentially prevent AF-related strokes.

rECHOmmend: An ECG-Based Machine Learning Approach for Identifying Patients at Increased Risk of Undiagnosed Structural Heart Disease Detectable by Echocardiography.

BACKGROUND: Timely diagnosis of structural heart disease improves patient outcomes, yet many remain underdiagnosed. While population screening with echocardiography is impractical, ECG-based prediction models can help target high-risk patients. We developed a novel ECG-based machine learning approach to predict multiple structural heart conditions, hypothesizing that a composite model would yield higher prevalence and positive predictive values to facilitate meaningful recommendations for echocardiography. METHODS: Using 2 232 130 ECGs linked to electronic health records and echocardiography reports from 484 765 adults between 1984 to 2021, we trained machine learning models to predict the presence or absence of any of 7 echocardiography-confirmed diseases within 1 year. This composite label included the following: moderate or severe valvular disease (aortic/mitral stenosis or regurgitation, tricuspid regurgitation), reduced ejection fraction <50%, or interventricular septal thickness >15 mm. We tested various combinations of input features (demographics, laboratory values, structured ECG data, ECG traces) and evaluated model performance using 5-fold cross-validation, multisite validation trained on 1 site and tested on 10 independent sites, and simulated retrospective deployment trained on pre-2010 data and deployed in 2010. RESULTS: Our composite rECHOmmend model used age, sex, and ECG traces and had a 0.91 area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and a 42% positive predictive value at 90% sensitivity, with a composite label prevalence of 17.9%. Individual disease models had area under the receiver operating characteristic curves from 0.86 to 0.93 and lower positive predictive values from 1% to 31%. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for models using different input features ranged from 0.80 to 0.93, increasing with additional features. Multisite validation showed similar results to cross-validation, with an aggregate area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.91 across our independent test set of 10 clinical sites after training on a separate site. Our simulated retrospective deployment showed that for ECGs acquired in patients without preexisting structural heart disease in the year 2010, 11% were classified as high risk and 41% (4.5% of total patients) developed true echocardiography-confirmed disease within 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: An ECG-based machine learning model using a composite end point can identify a high-risk population for having undiagnosed, clinically significant structural heart disease while outperforming single-disease models and improving practical utility with higher positive predictive values. This approach can facilitate targeted screening with echocardiography to improve underdiagnosis of structural heart disease.

Hidden Burden of Electronic Health Record-Identified Familial Hypercholesterolemia: Clinical Outcomes and Cost of Medical Care.

Background Familial hypercholesterolemia ( FH ), is a historically underdiagnosed, undertreated, high-risk condition that is associated with a high burden of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. In this study, we use a population-based approach using electronic health record ( EHR )-based algorithms to identify FH . We report the major adverse cardiovascular events, mortality, and cost of medical care associated with this diagnosis. Methods and Results In our 1.18 million EHR- eligible cohort, International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision ( ICD -9) code-defined hyperlipidemia was categorized into FH and non- FH groups using an EHR algorithm designed using the modified Dutch Lipid Clinic Network criteria. Major adverse cardiovascular events, mortality, and cost of medical care were analyzed. A priori associated variables/confounders were used for multivariate analyses using binary logistic regression and linear regression with propensity score-based weighted methods as appropriate. EHR FH was identified in 32 613 individuals, which was 2.7% of the 1.18 million EHR cohort and 13.7% of 237 903 patients with hyperlipidemia. FH had higher rates of myocardial infarction (14.77% versus 8.33%; P<0.0001), heart failure (11.82% versus 10.50%; P<0.0001), and, after adjusting for traditional risk factors, significantly correlated to a composite major adverse cardiovascular events variable (odds ratio, 4.02; 95% CI, 3.88-4.16; P<0.0001), mortality (odds ratio, 1.20; CI, 1.15-1.26; P<0.0001), and higher total revenue per-year (incidence rate ratio, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.28-1.33; P<0.0001). Conclusions EHR -based algorithms discovered a disproportionately high prevalence of FH in our medical cohort, which was associated with worse outcomes and higher costs of medical care. This data-driven approach allows for a more precise method to identify traditionally high-risk groups within large populations allowing for targeted prevention and therapeutic strategies.