Individualized Prediction of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Mexico City Municipality during the First Six Waves of the Pandemic.

After COVID-19 emerged, alternative methods to laboratory tests for the individualized prediction of SARS-CoV-2 were developed in several world regions. The objective of this investigation was to develop models for the individualized prediction of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a large municipality of Mexico. The study included data from 36,949 patients with suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection who received a diagnostic tested at health centers of the Alvaro Obregon Jurisdiction in Mexico City registered in the Epidemiological Surveillance System for Viral Respiratory Diseases (SISVER-SINAVE). The variables that were different between a positive test and a negative test were used to generate multivariate binary logistic regression models. There was a large variation in the prediction variables for the models of different pandemic waves. The models obtained an overall accuracy of 73% (63-82%), sensitivity of 52% (18-71%), and specificity of 84% (71-92%). In conclusion, the individualized prediction models of a positive COVID-19 test based on SISVER-SINAVE data had good performance. The large variation in the prediction variables for the models of different pandemic waves highlights the continuous change in the factors that influence the spread of COVID-19. These prediction models could be applied in early case identification strategies, especially in vulnerable populations.

Area-level disadvantage and alcohol use disorder in northern Mexico.

BACKGROUND: In Mexico, the Northern States are highly impacted by alcohol consumption and associated problems. Little is known about the association between contextual social disadvantage and alcohol use disorder in this region. METHODS: Information from 1265 current drinkers surveyed in the U.S.-Mexico Study on Alcohol and Related Conditions (UMSARC) was combined with official data on neighborhood disadvantage (index of urban marginalization, a composite of ten indicators of area-level social disadvantage) for 302 neighborhoods. Using statistical marginal models, we estimated the association of neighborhood disadvantage with alcohol use disorder (AUD; based on DSM-5 criteria), alone and with adjustment for individual and contextual covariates. We also tested for moderation of neighborhood disadvantage effects by sex, education, internal migration and border area. RESULTS: There was a statistically significant increase in the odds of AUD of 59% (AOR=1.59; 95%CI=1.03, 2.46) for every one-point increase on the neighborhood disadvantage scale, after adjustment for covariates. A significant interaction between sex and neighborhood disadvantage was indicated by two measures of additive interaction (AP=0.55; p<0.001 and S=2.55; p<0.001), with higher neighborhood disadvantage related to higher prevalence of AUD for men but not for women. No moderation effects were observed for education, internal migration or border area. CONCLUSIONS: Neighborhood disadvantage is a risk factor for AUD independent of other variables, specifically in men. Studies of contextual variables offer the possibility for understanding the role of collective circumstances on individuals in society. Future studies of alcohol use in this geographic area should consider effects of contextual determinants such as disadvantage.

Factores psicológicos y/o psiquiátricos presentes en pacientes desertores de protocolo de preparación para cirugía bariátrica / Psychological and/or psychiatric factors present in patients who abandoned the preparation protocol for bariatric surgery

Resumen: INTRODUCCIÓN: La obesidad severa es la enfermedad crónica con mayor prevalencia en el mundo, afectando la calidad de vida de los pacientes. Aunque existe una variedad de tratamientos para ella, las tasas de abandono de los mismos se encuentran entre el 40-80%. OBJETIVO: Identificar los factores psicológicos y/o psiquiátricos que presentaron en la evaluación inicial los pacientes con obesidad severa que desertaron del protocolo de preparación para la cirugía bariátrica y establecer diferencias con los pacientes que no desertaron. MÉTODO: Se llevó a cabo un estudio analítico observacional de casos (desertores) y controles (no desertores), retrospectivo, transversal, con una muestra de 286 expedientes de pacientes candidatos a cirugía bariátrica del Hospital General Dr. Manuel Gea González en la Ciudad de México, con IMC de 44.77 ± 7.47 kg/m2 y una edad de 37.45 ± 9.94 años y que fueron seleccionados por muestreo no probabilístico por conveniencia. RESULTADOS: Se encontraron diferencias significativas: género (los hombres desertan más), los pacientes desertores mostraron una mayor prevalencia en el trastorno por estrés postraumático, trastorno por déficit de atención e hiperactividad, trastorno por atracón, aislamiento, deterioro de las funciones cognitivas y mayor disfunción familiar y social que los no desertores. Un análisis multivariado sobre los mismos factores demostró que el ser hombre, tener poco apoyo social, presentar trastorno por atracón y tener un mayor número de faltas a sus citas durante el tratamiento, son factores contribuyentes para la deserción. DISCUSIÓN Y CONCLUSIÓN: Existen variables psicológicas/psiquiátricas que podrían establecerse como factores de riesgo en la deserción y como consecuencia incrementar la posibilidad de afectar el bienestar físico y emocional del paciente.

Abstract: INTRODUCTION: Severe obesity is the chronic disease with the highest prevalence around the world. It affects the life quality of patients in terms of physical and mental health. Although there are a variety of treatments for severe obesity, dropout rates are between 40% to 80%. OBJECTIVE: To identify the psychological and/or psychiatric factors presented in the initial evaluation of patients with severe obesity who deserted the preparation protocol for bariatric surgery and stablish differences between them and those who didn't defected. METHOD: An analytical observational open study of cases (deserters) and controls (non deserters), retrospective, transversal, with a sample of 286 files of patients candidates for bariatric surgery from General Hospital "Dr. Manuel Gea Gonzalez" in Mexico City selected by simple random sampling fulfilling desertion variable, with a BMI of 44.77 kg/m2 ± 7.47 and 37.45 ± 9.94 years old and were selected by non-probabilistic convenience sample. RESULTS: Significant differences were found: gender (men drop out more), deserters patients showed a higher prevalence in post-traumatic stress disorder, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, binge eating, isolation, impaired cognitive function and greater family and social dysfunction than non-deserters. A multivariate analysis of these factors showed that being male, having little social support, present a binge eating disorder, have a greater number of absences to appointments during treatment, are factors contributing to attrition. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: There are psychological/psychiatric variables that could be established as risk factors for dropping out, increasing the possibility of affecting the patient's physical and emotional well-being.