Global mismatches between threat mapping research effort and the potential of threat abatement actions to reduce extinction risk.

Threat mapping is a necessary tool for identifying and abating direct threats to species in the ongoing extinction crisis. There are known gaps in the threat mapping literature for particular threats and geographic locations, and it remains unclear if the distribution of research effort is appropriately targeted relative to conservation need. We aimed to determine the drivers of threat mapping research effort and to quantify gaps that, if filled, could inform actions with the highest potential to reduce species' extinction risk. We used a negative binomial generalized linear model to analyze research effort as a function of threat abatement potential (quantified as the potential reduction in species extinction risk from abating threats), species richness, land area, and human pressure. The model showed that threat mapping research effort increased by 1.1 to 1.2 times per standardized unit change in threat abatement potential. However, species richness and land area were stronger predictors of research effort overall. The greatest areas of mismatch between research effort and threat abatement potential, receiving disproportionately low research effort, were related to the threats to species of agriculture, aquaculture, and biological resource use across the tropical regions of the Americas, Asia, and Madagascar. Conversely, the threat of linear infrastructure (e.g., roads and rails) across regions, the threat of biological resource use (e.g., hunting or collection) in sub-Saharan Africa, and overall threats in North America and Europe all received disproportionately high research effort. We discuss the range of methodological and sociopolitical factors that may be behind the overall trends and specific areas of mismatch we found. We urge a stronger emphasis on targeting research effort toward those threats and geographic locations where threat abatement activities could make the greatest contribution to reducing global species extinction risk.

Disparidades mundiales entre la investigación sobre el esfuerzo de mapeo de amenazas y la potencial amenaza de las acciones de abatimiento para reducir el riesgo de extinción Resumen El mapeo de amenazas es una herramienta necesaria para identificar y abatir las amenazas directas para las especies en la actual crisis de extinción. Existen vacíos conocidos en la literatura del mapeo de amenazas para amenazas particulares y ubicaciones geográficas, y todavía no está claro si la distribución de los esfuerzos de investigación está enfocada de forma apropiada en relación con las necesidades de conservación. Buscamos determinar los factores que influyen sobre el esfuerzo de investigación del mapeo de amenazas y cuantificar los vacíos que, si se cierran, podrían guiar las acciones con el potencial más alto para reducir el riesgo de extinción de las especies. Usamos un modelo binomial lineal negativo generalizado para analizar el esfuerzo de investigación como función del potencial de abatimiento de amenazas (cuantificado como la reducción potencial en el riesgo de extinción a partir del abatimiento de amenazas), la riqueza de especies, el área del suelo y la presión humana. El modelo mostró que el esfuerzo de investigación del mapeo de amenazas incrementó entre 1.1 y 1.2 veces por unidad estandarizada de cambio en el potencial de abatimiento de amenazas. Sin embargo, la riqueza de especies y el área del suelo fueron pronósticos más sólidos del esfuerzo de investigación generalizado. Las principales áreas de disparidad entre el esfuerzo de investigación y el potencial de abatimiento de amenazas, las cuales reciben un esfuerzo de investigación desproporcionalmente bajo, estuvieron relacionadas con las amenazas para las especies de agricultura, acuacultura y recursos biológicos que se usan en las regiones tropicales de América, Asia y Madagascar. Al contrario, la amenaza de la infraestructura lineal (p. ej.: carreteras y vías férreas) en las regiones, la amenaza del uso de recursos biológicos (p. ej.: caza o recolección) en la África subsahariana y las amenazas generales en América del Norte y en Europa recibieron un esfuerzo de investigación desproporcionalmente alto. Abordamos el rango de factores metodológicos y sociopolíticos que pueden estar detrás de las tendencias generales y las áreas específicas de disparidad que encontramos. Instamos a un mayor énfasis en el enfoque del esfuerzo de investigación hacia aquellas amenazas y ubicaciones geográficas en donde las actividades de abatimiento de amenazas podrían brindar una mayor contribución para reducir el riesgo mundial de extinción de especies.

Depression in Sjögren's syndrome mediates the relationship between pain, fatigue, sleepiness, and overall quality of life.

Objectives: Sjögren's syndrome (SS) includes many extra-glandular symptoms such as fatigue, pain, sleepiness and depression, which impact on quality of life (QoL). These symptoms also influence each other and could be linked by autonomic nervous system (ANS) dysregulation. Our aim was to model the role of putative predictive variables, including depression in the relationships between ANS function, fatigue, and QoL in SS. Methods: Cross-sectional analysis of self-reported data from the multicentre UK primary SS registry. The Composite Autonomic Symptom Scale (COMPASS) was used to assess autonomic function, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) to assess anxiety and depression and the EuroQol-5 Dimension (EQ-5D) to assess QoL. Validated scales were used for other clinical variables. Using multiple regression analysis and structural equation modelling (SEM), we investigated how the QoL of people with SS is impacted by the direct and indirect effects of fatigue, sleepiness, depression, symptom burden and ANS function, and their interactions. Results: Data was obtained for 1046 people with SS, 56% COMPASS completers. Symptoms of ANS dysregulation were common. Participants with ANS dysregulation had more severe depression, anxiety, dryness, fatigue, pain, sleepiness and QoL (P < 0.01 for all). Depression, anxiety, dryness, and pain were independent predictors of ANS function in the multiple regression model (P < 0.05 for all). ANS function could not be included in the SEM. The SEM model had good fit to the data (comparative fit index = 0.998) and showed that, in people with SS, depression mediates the effects of pain, fatigue and sleepiness on QoL. Conclusion: Our results show that diagnosing and treating depression in people with SS could have direct positive impact on QoL, and significantly ameliorate the impact of fatigue and pain.

Erratum: Author Correction: The influence of HLA genotype on the development of metal hypersensitivity following joint replacement.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/s43856-022-00137-0.].

The influence of HLA genotype on the development of metal hypersensitivity following joint replacement.

Background: Over five million joint replacements are performed across the world each year. Cobalt chrome (CoCr) components are used in most of these procedures. Some patients develop delayed-type hypersensitivity (DTH) responses to CoCr implants, resulting in tissue damage and revision surgery. DTH is unpredictable and genetic links have yet to be definitively established. Methods: At a single site, we carried out an initial investigation to identify HLA alleles associated with development of DTH following metal-on-metal hip arthroplasty. We then recruited patients from other centres to train and validate an algorithm incorporating patient age, gender, HLA genotype, and blood metal concentrations to predict the development of DTH. Accuracy of the modelling was assessed using performance metrics including time-dependent receiver operator curves. Results: Using next-generation sequencing, here we determine the HLA genotypes of 606 patients. 176 of these patients had experienced failure of their prostheses; the remaining 430 remain asymptomatic at a mean follow up of twelve years. We demonstrate that the development of DTH is associated with patient age, gender, the magnitude of metal exposure, and the presence of certain HLA class II alleles. We show that the predictive algorithm developed from this investigation performs to an accuracy suitable for clinical use, with weighted mean survival probability errors of 1.8% and 3.1% for pre-operative and post-operative models respectively. Conclusions: The development of DTH following joint replacement appears to be determined by the interaction between implant wear and a patient's genotype. The algorithm described in this paper may improve implant selection and help direct patient surveillance following surgery. Further consideration should be given towards understanding patient-specific responses to different biomaterials.

Identifying the climatic drivers of honey bee disease in England and Wales.

Honey bee colony health has received considerable attention in recent years, with many studies highlighting multifactorial issues contributing to colony losses. Disease and weather are consistently highlighted as primary drivers of colony loss, yet little is understood about how they interact. Here, we combined disease records from government honey bee health inspections with meteorological data from the CEDA to identify how weather impacts EFB, AFB, CBP, varroosis, chalkbrood and sacbrood. Using R-INLA, we determined how different meteorological variables influenced disease prevalence and disease risk. Temperature caused an increase in the risk of both varroosis and sacbrood, but overall, the weather had a varying effect on the six honey bee diseases. The risk of disease was also spatially varied and was impacted by the meteorological variables. These results are an important step in identifying the impacts of climate change on honey bees and honey bee diseases.

Transmission routes of rare seasonal diseases: the case of norovirus infections.

Norovirus (NoV) is the most commonly recognized cause of acute gastroenteritis, with over a million cases globally per year. While usually self-limiting, NoV poses a substantial economic burden because it is highly contagious and there are multiple transmission routes. Infection occurs through inhalation of vomitus; faecal-oral spread; and food, water and environmental contamination. While the incidence of the disease is predictably seasonal, much less is known about the relative contribution of the various exposure pathways in causing disease. Additionally, asymptomatic excretion and viral shedding make forecasting disease burden difficult. We develop a novel stochastic dynamic network model to investigate the contributions of different transmission pathways in multiple coupled social networks representing schools, hospitals, care-homes and family households in a community setting. We analyse how the networks impact on transmission. We used ward-level demographic data from Northumberland, UK to create a simulation cohort. We compared the results with extant data on NoV cases from the IID2 study. Connectivity across the simulated cohort was high. Cases of NoV showed marked seasonality, peaking in early winter and declining through the summer. For the first time, we show that fomites and food appear to be the most important exposure routes in determining the population burden of disease. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'.

Climate, human behaviour or environment: individual-based modelling of Campylobacter seasonality and strategies to reduce disease burden.

BACKGROUND: With over 800 million cases globally, campylobacteriosis is a major cause of food borne disease. In temperate climates incidence is highly seasonal but the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood, making human disease control difficult. We hypothesised that observed disease patterns reflect complex interactions between weather, patterns of human risk behaviour, immune status and level of food contamination. Only by understanding these can we find effective interventions. METHODS: We analysed trends in human Campylobacter cases in NE England from 2004 to 2009, investigating the associations between different risk factors and disease using time-series models. We then developed an individual-based (IB) model of risk behaviour, human immunological responses to infection and environmental contamination driven by weather and land use. We parameterised the IB model for NE England and compared outputs to observed numbers of reported cases each month in the population in 2004-2009. Finally, we used it to investigate different community level disease reduction strategies. RESULTS: Risk behaviours like countryside visits (t = 3.665, P < 0.001 and t = - 2.187, P = 0.029 for temperature and rainfall respectively), and consumption of barbecued food were strongly associated with weather, (t = 3.219, P = 0.002 and t = 2.015, P = 0.045 for weekly average temperature and average maximum temperature respectively) and also rain (t = 2.254, P = 0.02527). This suggests that the effect of weather was indirect, acting through changes in risk behaviour. The seasonal pattern of cases predicted by the IB model was significantly related to observed patterns (r = 0.72, P < 0.001) indicating that simulating risk behaviour could produce the observed seasonal patterns of cases. A vaccination strategy providing short-term immunity was more effective than educational interventions to modify human risk behaviour. Extending immunity to 1 year from 20 days reduced disease burden by an order of magnitude (from 2412-2414 to 203-309 cases per 50,000 person-years). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first interdisciplinary study to integrate environment, risk behaviour, socio-demographics and immunology to model Campylobacter infection, including pathways to mitigation. We conclude that vaccination is likely to be the best route for intervening against campylobacteriosis despite the technical problems associated with understanding both the underlying human immunology and genetic variation in the pathogen, and the likely cost of vaccine development.

Control of norovirus infection.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The purpose of the review is to provide an update on control measures for norovirus (NoV), which is the most commonly implicated pathogen in acute gastroenteritis and outbreaks, causing major disruption in nurseries, schools, hospitals and care homes. RECENT FINDINGS: Important developments include the discovery that virus particles, previously considered to be the infectious unit, also occur in clusters, which appear to be more virulent than individual virus particles; a working culture system using human stem-cell derived enteroids; promising results from early phase clinical trials of candidate NoV vaccines, which appear to be safe and immunogenic; chronic NoV affects patients with primary and secondary immune deficiencies. Although several treatments have been used none are supported by well designed clinical trials; infection control procedures are effective if properly implemented. SUMMARY: NoV remains an important cause of morbidity and mortality. Although there are exciting developments on the vaccine front, the mainstay of control remains good hand hygiene, adherence to infection control procedures and limiting contamination of food, water and the wider environment. Once vaccines are available there will be important decisions to be made about how best to implement them.

Spatio-temporal models to determine association between Campylobacter cases and environment.

Background: Campylobacteriosis is a major cause of gastroenteritis in the UK, and although 70% of cases are associated with food sources, the remainder are probably associated with wider environmental exposure. Methods: In order to investigate wider environmental transmission, we conducted a spatio-temporal analysis of the association of human cases of Campylobacter in the Tyne catchment with weather, climate, hydrology and land use. A hydrological model was used to predict surface-water flow in the Tyne catchment over 5 years. We analysed associations between population-adjusted Campylobacter case rate and environmental factors hypothesized to be important in disease using a two-stage modelling framework. First, we investigated associations between temporal variation in case rate in relation to surface-water flow, temperature, evapotranspiration and rainfall, using linear mixed-effects models. Second, we used the random effects for the first model to quantify how spatial variation in static landscape features of soil and land use impacted on the likely differences between subcatchment associations of case rate with the temporal variables. Results: Population-adjusted Campylobacter case rates were associated with periods of high predicted surface-water flow, and during above average temperatures. Subcatchments with cattle on stagnogley soils, and to a lesser extent sheep plus cattle grazing, had higher Campylobacter case rates. Conclusions: Areas of stagnogley soils with mixed livestock grazing may be more vulnerable to both Campylobacter spread and exposure during periods of high rainfall, with resultant increased risk of human cases of the disease.

Mechanisms Affecting the Gut of Preterm Infants in Enteral Feeding Trials.

Large randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in preterm infants offer unique opportunities for mechanistic evaluation of the risk factors leading to serious diseases, as well as the actions of interventions designed to prevent them. Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) a serious inflammatory gut condition and late-onset sepsis (LOS) are common feeding and nutrition-related problems that may cause death or serious long-term morbidity and are key outcomes in two current UK National Institutes for Health Research (NIHR) trials. Speed of increasing milk feeds trial (SIFT) randomized preterm infants to different rates of increases in milk feeds with a primary outcome of survival without disability at 2 years corrected age. Enteral lactoferrin in neonates (ELFIN) randomizes infants to supplemental enteral lactoferrin or placebo with a primary outcome of LOS. This is a protocol for the mechanisms affecting the gut of preterm infants in enteral feeding trials (MAGPIE) study and is funded by the UK NIHR Efficacy and Mechanistic Evaluation programme. MAGPIE will recruit ~480 preterm infants who were enrolled in SIFT or ELFIN. Participation in MAGPIE does not change the main trial protocols and uses non-invasive sampling of stool and urine, along with any residual resected gut tissue if infants required surgery. Trial interventions may involve effects on gut microbes, metabolites (e.g., short-chain fatty acids), and aspects of host immune function. Current hypotheses suggest that NEC and/or LOS are due to a dysregulated immune system in the context of gut dysbiosis, but mechanisms have not been systematically studied within large RCTs. Microbiomic analysis will use next-generation sequencing, and metabolites will be assessed by mass spectrometry to detect volatile organic and other compounds produced by microbes or the host. We will explore differences between disease cases and controls, as well as exploring the actions of trial interventions. Impacts of this research are multiple: translation of knowledge of mechanisms promoting gut health may explain outcomes or suggest alternate strategies to improve health. Results may identify new non-invasive diagnostic or monitoring techniques, preventative or treatment strategies for NEC or LOS, or provide data useful for risk stratification in future studies. Mechanistic evaluation might be especially informative where there are not clear effects on the primary outcome (ISRCTN 12554594).

Patterns of Coral-Reef Finfish Species Disappearances Inferred from Fishers' Knowledge in Global Epicentre of Marine Shorefish Diversity.

In the Philippines, very high fishing pressure coincides with the globally greatest number of shorefish species, yet no long-term fisheries data are available to explore species-level changes that may have occurred widely in the most species rich and vulnerable marine ecosystem, namely coral reefs. Through 2655 face-to-face interviews conducted between August 2012 and July 2014, we used fishers' recall of past catch rates of reef-associated finfish to infer species disappearances from catches in five marine key biodiversity areas (Lanuza Bay, Danajon Bank, Verde Island Passage, Polillo Islands and Honda Bay). We modeled temporal trends in perceived catch per unit effort (CPUE) based on fishers' reports of typical good days' catches using Generalized Linear Mixed Modelling. Fifty-nine different finfish disappeared from catches between the 1950s and 2014; 42 fish were identified to species level, two to genus, seven to family and eight to local name only. Five species occurring at all sites with the greatest number of fishers reporting zero catches were the green bumphead parrotfish (Bolbometopon muricatum), humphead wrasse (Cheilinus undulatus), African pompano (Alectis ciliaris), giant grouper (Epinephelus lanceolatus) and mangrove red snapper (Lutjanus argentimaculatus). Between the 1950s and 2014, the mean perceived CPUE of bumphead parrotfish declined by 88%, that of humphead wrasse by 82%, African pompano by 66%, giant grouper by 74% and mangrove red snapper by 64%. These declines were mainly associated with excess and uncontrolled fishing, fish life-history traits like maximum body size and socio-economic factors like access to market infrastructure and services, and overpopulation. The fishers' knowledge is indicative of extirpations where evidence for these losses was otherwise lacking. Our models provide information as basis for area-based conservation and regional resource management particularly for the more vulnerable, once common, large, yet wide-ranging reef finfish species.

Cytokine responses in birds challenged with the human food-borne pathogen Campylobacter jejuni implies a Th17 response.

Development of process orientated understanding of cytokine interactions within the gastrointestinal tract during an immune response to pathogens requires experimentation and statistical modelling. The immune response against pathogen challenge depends on the specific threat to the host. Here, we show that broiler chickens mount a breed-dependent immune response to Campylobacter jejuni infection in the caeca by analysing experimental data using frequentist and Bayesian structural equation models (SEM). SEM provides a framework by which cytokine interdependencies, based on prior knowledge, can be tested. In both breeds important cytokines including pro-inflammatory interleukin (IL)-1ß, , IL-4, IL-17A, interferon (IFN)-γ and anti-inflammatory IL-10 and transforming growth factor (TGF)-ß4 were expressed post-challenge. The SEM revealed a putative regulatory pathway illustrating a T helper (Th)17 response and regulation of IL-10, which is breed-dependent. The prominence of the Th17 pathway indicates the cytokine response aims to limit the invasion or colonization of an extracellular bacterial pathogen but the time-dependent nature of the response differs between breeds.

Ablative therapy for people with localised prostate cancer: a systematic review and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: For people with localised prostate cancer, active treatments are effective but have significant side effects. Minimally invasive treatments that destroy (or ablate) either the entire gland or the part of the prostate with cancer may be as effective and cause less side effects at an acceptable cost. Such therapies include cryotherapy, high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) and brachytherapy, among others. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to determine the relative clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ablative therapies compared with radical prostatectomy (RP), external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) and active surveillance (AS) for primary treatment of localised prostate cancer, and compared with RP for salvage treatment of localised prostate cancer which has recurred after initial treatment with EBRT. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE (1946 to March week 3, 2013), MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations (29 March 2013), EMBASE (1974 to week 13, 2013), Bioscience Information Service (BIOSIS) (1956 to 1 April 2013), Science Citation Index (1970 to 1 April 2013), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (issue 3, 2013), Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR) (issue 3, 2013), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) (inception to March 2013) and Health Technology Assessment (HTA) (inception to March 2013) databases were searched. Costs were obtained from NHS sources. REVIEW METHODS: Evidence was drawn from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and non-RCTs, and from case series for the ablative procedures only, in people with localised prostate cancer. For primary therapy, the ablative therapies were cryotherapy, HIFU, brachytherapy and other ablative therapies. The comparators were AS, RP and EBRT. For salvage therapy, the ablative therapies were cryotherapy and HIFU. The comparator was RP. Outcomes were cancer related, adverse effects (functional and procedural) and quality of life. Two reviewers extracted data and carried out quality assessment. Meta-analysis used a Bayesian indirect mixed-treatment comparison. Data were incorporated into an individual simulation Markov model to estimate cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: The searches identified 121 studies for inclusion in the review of patients undergoing primary treatment and nine studies for the review of salvage treatment. Cryotherapy [3995 patients; 14 case series, 1 RCT and 4 non-randomised comparative studies (NRCSs)], HIFU (4000 patients; 20 case series, 1 NRCS) and brachytherapy (26,129 patients; 2 RCTs, 38 NRCSs) studies provided limited data for meta-analyses. All studies were considered at high risk of bias. There was no robust evidence that mortality (4-year survival 93% for cryotherapy, 99% for HIFU, 91% for EBRT) or other cancer-specific outcomes differed between treatments. For functional and quality-of-life outcomes, the paucity of data prevented any definitive conclusions from being made, although data on incontinence rates and erectile dysfunction for all ablative procedures were generally numerically lower than for non-ablative procedures. The safety profiles were comparable with existing treatments. Studies reporting the use of focal cryotherapy suggested that incontinence rates may be better than for whole-gland treatment. Data on AS, salvage treatment and other ablative therapies were too limited. The cost-effectiveness analysis confirmed the uncertainty from the clinical review and that there is no technology which appears superior, on the basis of current evidence, in terms of average cost-effectiveness. The probabilistic sensitivity analyses suggest that a number of ablative techniques are worthy of further research. LIMITATIONS: The main limitations were the quantity and quality of the data available on cancer-related outcomes and dysfunction. CONCLUSIONS: The findings indicate that there is insufficient evidence to form any clear recommendations on the use of ablative therapies in order to influence current clinical practice. Research efforts in the use of ablative therapies in the management of prostate cancer should now be concentrated on the performance of RCTs and the generation of standardised outcomes. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42012002461. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

The risk of cardiorespiratory deaths persists beyond 30 days after proximal femoral fracture surgery.

INTRODUCTION: 30-day mortality is routinely used to assess proximal femoral fracture care, though patients might remain at risk for poor outcome for longer. This work has examined the survivorship out to one year of a consecutive series of patients admitted for proximal femoral fracture to a single institution. We wished to quantify the temporal impact of fracture upon mortality, and also the influence of patient age, gender, surgical delay and length of stay on mortality from both cardiorespiratory and non-cardiorespiratory causes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data were analysed for 561 consecutive patients with 565 fragility type proximal femoral fractures treated surgically at our trauma unit. Dates and causes of death were obtained from death certificates and also linked to data from the Office of National Statistics. Mortality rates and causes were collated for two time periods: day 0-30, and day 31-365. RESULTS: Cumulative incidence analysis showed that mortality due to cardiorespiratory causes (pneumonia, myocardial infarction, cardiac failure) rose steeply to around 100 days after surgery and then flattened reaching approximately 12% by 1 year. Mortality from non-cardiorespiratory causes (kidney failure, stroke, sepsis etc.) was more progressive, but with a rate half of that of cardiorespiratory causes. Progressive modelling of mortality risks revealed that cardiorespiratory deaths were associated with advancing age and male gender (p<0.001 for both), but the effect of age declined after 100 days. Non-cardiorespiratory deaths were not time-dependent. CONCLUSION: We believe this analysis extends our understanding of the temporal impact of proximal femoral fracture and its surgical management upon outcome beyond the previously accepted standard (30 days) and supports the use of a new, more relevant timescale for this high risk group of patients. It also highlights the need for planning and continuing physiotherapy, respiratory exercises and other chest-protective measures from 31 to 100 days.

Risk factors for the development of pleural empyema in children.

Pediatric pleural empyema has increased substantially over the past 20 years and reasons for this rise remain not fully explained. We investigated potential risk factors for the development of empyema in children by examining a cohort of patients with community-acquired pneumonia. Demographic, clinical, and socioeconomic characteristics, use of Ibuprofen prior to presentation and selected potential epidemiological risk factors were analyzed. Data were collected from a prospective etiological study of radiologically confirmed pneumonia in hospitalized children aged ≤16 years. One hundred sixty children were enrolled; 56% were male and 69% aged <5 years. Empyema complication developed in 40 (25%) children. Children with empyema were more frequently prescribed Ibuprofen prior to admission to hospital than those without (82% vs. 46.2%; OR 1.94, 97.5% credible interval 0.80-3.18). Bacterial infection was strongly associated with the development of empyema (OR 3.34, 97.5% credible interval 1.70-5.14). In contrast age, sex, maternal age, parental smoking, level of socioeconomic status, nursery attendance, asthma, household characteristics (bedrooms and number of occupants) were not significantly different between groups. In conclusion, children with pneumonia who developed empyema had more often received Ibuprofen prior to hospitalization and confirmed bacterial infection. We suggest a population-based study involving both primary and secondary care settings would help to investigate the role of Ibuprofen use in modulating the course of disease in children with pneumonia.

Accuracy of the interpretation of chest radiographs for the diagnosis of paediatric pneumonia.

INTRODUCTION: World Health Organization (WHO) radiological classification remains an important entry criterion in epidemiological studies of pneumonia in children. We report inter-observer variability in the interpretation of 169 chest radiographs in children suspected of having pneumonia. METHODS: An 18-month prospective aetiological study of pneumonia was undertaken in Northern England. Chest radiographs were performed on eligible children aged ≤16 years with clinical features of pneumonia. The initial radiology report was compared with a subsequent assessment by a consultant cardiothoracic radiologist. Chest radiographic changes were categorised according to the WHO classification. RESULTS: There was significant disagreement (22%) between the first and second reports (kappa = 0.70, P<0.001), notably in those aged <5 years (26%, kappa = 0.66, P<0.001). The most frequent sources of disagreement were the reporting of patchy and perihilar changes. CONCLUSION: This substantial inter-observer variability highlights the need for experts from different countries to create a consensus to review the radiological definition of pneumonia in children.

Utility of inflammatory markers in predicting the aetiology of pneumonia in children.

We aimed to investigate the diagnostic value of applying cut-off levels of inflammatory markers and to develop a prediction model for differentiation between bacterial and viral infections in paediatric community-acquired pneumonia based on C-reactive protein (CRP), neutrophil, and white cell counts (WCC). Amongst 401 children, those with bacterial pneumonia were older than those with viral pneumonia (P<0.001). Compared to viral, bacterial infections had a higher median CRP level (P<0.001), whereas WCC and neutrophil count were not different. Bacterial infections were associated with higher CRP >80 mg/L than viral infections (P=0.001), but levels <20 mg/L were not discriminatory (P=0.254). Receiver operating characteristic curve of the model for differentiating bacterial from viral pneumonia based on age, CRP, and neutrophil count produced area under the curve of 0.894 with 75.7% sensitivity and 89.4% specificity. This aetiological discriminant prediction model is a potentially useful tool in clinical management and epidemiological studies of paediatric pneumonia.

Changing clinical practice: management of paediatric community-acquired pneumonia.

RATIONALE AND AIM: To compare clinical features and management of paediatric community-acquired pneumonia (PCAP) following the publication of UK pneumonia guidelines in 2002 with data from a similar survey at the same hospitals in 2001-2002 (pre-guidelines). METHODS: A prospective survey of 11 hospitals in Northern England was undertaken during 2008-2009. Clinical and laboratory data were recorded on children aged ≤16 years who presented with clinical and radiological features of pneumonia. RESULTS: 542 children were included. There was a reduction in all investigations performed (P < 0.001) except C-reactive protein (P = 0.448) between surveys. These included full blood count (76% to 61%); blood culture (70% to 53%) and testing of respiratory secretions for viruses (24% to 12%) and bacteria (18% to 8%). Compared to pre-guidelines, there was a reduction in the use of intravenous antibiotics as a proportion of the total prescribed from 47% to 36% (P < 0.001) and a change in the route of antibiotic administration with increasing preference for oral alone (16% pre-compared to 50% post-guidelines, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Apart from the acute phase reactants that should not be measured routinely, these changes are in line with the guideline recommendations. Improvements in antibiotic use are possible and have implications for future antimicrobial stewardship programmes. Further work using cost-effectiveness analysis may also demonstrate a financial benefit to health services from adoption of guidelines.

Increasing age and female gender are associated with early knee replacement following arthroscopy.

PURPOSE: Early knee replacement following arthroscopy may be perceived as a failure of the original treatment and thus a poor use of resources. Factors that may be associated with increased risk of early replacement were explored in this study. METHODS: All adult patients who underwent planned knee arthroscopy in a national cohort over a 6-month period in 2005 were extracted from the administrative hospital admissions database and linked to determine whether and when a knee replacement occurred on the same knee within the subsequent 5 years. A combination of survival analysis and mixed effect modelling was used to investigate risk factors for replacement. RESULTS: There were a total of 20,556 arthroscopies, of which 2,161 (10.6%) subsequently underwent knee replacement. For patients under 60 years, female gender (62.1% higher risk, p < 0.001) and increasing age (12.7% increased risk per increasing year of age, p < 0.001) were significant associations for requiring knee replacement, after risk adjusting. Of those aged ≥60, 12.7% (576) had undergone a replacement at 1 year following arthroscopy. Females (33% higher risk), increasing age (7.3% increased risk per increasing year of age, p < 0.001) and hypertension (1,600% higher risk, p < 0.001) were significant predictors. The risk associated with increased age was not proportional for the older age group, with risk declining as time passed from arthroscopy, indicating other factors were influencing progression to knee replacement. CONCLUSIONS: The predictors of early knee replacement following arthroscopy were female sex, age over 60 years and hypertension, irrespective of type of operation. This work may contribute to national recommendations regarding the provision of arthroscopy for patients over 60 years. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: III.