Development and validation of mortality prediction models based on the social determinants of health.

BACKGROUND: There is no standardised approach to screening adults for social risk factors. The goal of this study was to develop mortality risk prediction models based on the social determinants of health (SDoH) for clinical risk stratification. METHODS: Data were used from REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study, a national, population-based, longitudinal cohort of black and white Americans aged ≥45 recruited between 2003 and 2007. Analysis was limited to participants with available SDoH and mortality data (n=20 843). All-cause mortality, available through 31 December 2018, was modelled using Cox proportional hazards with baseline individual, area-level and business-level SDoH as predictors. The area-level Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) was included for comparison. All models were adjusted for age, sex and sampling region and underwent internal split-sample validation. RESULTS: The baseline prediction model including only age, sex and REGARDS sampling region had a c-statistic of 0.699. An individual-level SDoH model (Model 1) had a higher c-statistic than the SVI (0.723 vs 0.708, p<0.001) in the testing set. Sequentially adding area-level SDoH (c-statistic 0.723) and business-level SDoH (c-statistics 0.723) to Model 1 had minimal improvement in model discrimination. Structural racism variables were associated with all-cause mortality for black participants but did not improve model discrimination compared with Model 1 (p=0.175). CONCLUSION: In conclusion, SDoH can improve mortality prediction over 10 years relative to a baseline model and have the potential to identify high-risk patients for further evaluation or intervention if validated externally.

Leveraging home health aides to improve outcomes in heart failure: A pilot study protocol.

Heart failure (HF) affects six million people in the U.S., is associated with high morbidity, mortality, and healthcare utilization.(1, 2) Despite a decade of innovation, the majority of interventions aimed at reducing hospitalization and readmissions in HF have not been successful.(3-7) One reason may be that most have overlooked the role of home health aides and attendants (HHAs), who are often highly involved in HF care.(8-13) Despite their contributions, studies have found that HHAs lack specific HF training and have difficulty reaching their nursing supervisors when they need urgent help with their patients. Here we describe the protocol for a pilot randomized control trial (pRCT) assessing a novel stakeholder-engaged intervention that provides HHAs with a) HF training (enhanced usual care arm) and b) HF training plus a mobile health application that allows them to chat with a nurse in real-time (intervention arm). In collaboration with the VNS Health of New York, NY, we will conduct a single-site parallel arm pRCT with 104 participants (HHAs) to evaluate the feasibility, acceptability, and effectiveness (primary outcomes: HF knowledge; HF caregiving self-efficacy) of the intervention among HHAs caring for HF patients. We hypothesize that educating and better integrating HHAs into the care team can improve their ability to provide support for patients and outcomes for HF patients as well (exploratory outcomes include hospitalization, emergency department visits, and readmission). This study offers a novel and potentially scalable way to leverage the HHA workforce and improve the outcomes of the patients for whom they care. Clinical trial.gov registration: NCT04239911.

"Should I Prioritize My Cancer or My Diabetes?": Patient-Perceived Barriers to Co-Managing Cancer and Diabetes Mellitus.

Among patients with cancer, diabetes mellitus (DM) is a prevalent comorbid condition. With an aging population and an increase in the prevalence of cancer and DM, the number of cancer patients with DM will rise. To date, studies have largely focused on understanding the context of cancer and DM co-management from the perspectives of oncology and primary care providers. To better understand the potential barriers to optimal cancer and DM co-management, we conducted 17 semi-structured interviews with DM patients receiving cancer care at New York-Presbyterian Weill Cornell Medical Center outpatient oncology clinics in New York, NY. In total, 53% patients were female, 35% were non-White, and the mean age was 64.75 (SD 11.10) years. We qualitatively analyzed our data and identified the following nine themes: (1) patients develop DM during or after cancer treatment; (2) patients do not know about the possible interactions between DM and cancer treatment; (3) cancer care is prioritized over DM management; (4) severity of DM symptoms drive patients' DM self-management during cancer care; (5) impact of cancer treatment on quality of life; (6) demands from cancer care make DM management more difficult; (7) patients want individualized treatment plans that integrate DM and cancer co-management; (8) need for greater patient activation; (9) lack of patient-centered educational resources on DM management during cancer care. Owing to these results, our findings highlight the need to increase patient engagement by developing and disseminating patient-centered educational resources on cancer and DM to improve self-management practices and patient outcomes.

Social Networks as a Key Health Determinant in Acute Illness Recovery: A Lesson from the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of considering social determinants of health in health outcomes. Within this spectrum of determinants, social networks garnered attention as the pandemic highlighted the negative effects of social isolation in the context of social distancing measures. Post-pandemic, examining the role social networks play in COVID-19 recovery can help guide patient care and shape future health policies. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between social networks and self-rated health change, as well as physical function, in patients recovering from COVID-19 pneumonia. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study utilizing clinical data from two New York City hospitals and a 9-month follow-up survey of COVID-19 pneumonia survivors. We evaluated a composite Social Network Score from the 6-item Lubben Social Network Scale and its association with two outcomes: 1) self-rated health change and 2) physical function. RESULTS: A total of 208 patients were included in this study. A one-point increase in the Social Network Score was associated with greater odds of both improved or similar self-rated health change (odds ratio [OR] 1.07, 95% CI 1.02 - 1.12, p = 0.01), as well as unimpaired physical function (OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.03 - 1.14, p < 0.01). CONCLUSION: This study emphasized the importance of social networks as a social determinant of health among patients recovering from COVID-19 hospitalization. Targeted interventions to enhance social networks may benefit not only COVID-19 patients but also individuals recovering from other acute illnesses.

Association Between Young Adult Characteristics and Blood Pressure Trajectories.

BACKGROUND: Blood pressure (BP) trajectories from young adulthood through middle age are associated with cardiovascular risk. We examined the associations of hypertension risk factors with BP trajectories among a large diverse sample. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed data from young adults, aged 18 to 39 years, with untreated BP <140/90 mm Hg at baseline from Kaiser Permanente Southern California (N=355 324). We used latent growth curve models to identify 10-year BP trajectories and to assess the associations between characteristics in young adulthood and BP trajectories. We identified the following 5 distinct systolic BP trajectories, which appeared to be determined mainly by the baseline BP with progressively higher BP at each year: group 1 (lowest BP trajectory, 7.9%), group 2 (26.5%), group 3 (33.0%), group 4 (25.4%), and group 5 (highest BP trajectory, 7.3%). Older age (adjusted odds ratio for 30-39 versus 18-29 years, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.18-1.28]), male sex (13.38 [95% CI, 12.80-13.99]), obesity (body mass index ≥30 versus 18.5-24.9 kg/m2, 14.81 [95% CI, 14.03-15.64]), overweight (body mass index 25-29.9 versus 18.5-24.9 kg/m2, 3.16 [95% CI, 3.00-3.33]), current smoking (1.58 [95% CI, 1.48-1.67]), prediabetes (1.21 [95% CI, 1.13-1.29]), diabetes (1.60 [95% CI, 1.41-1.81]) and high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (≥160 versus <100 mg/dL, 1.52 [95% CI, 1.37-1.68]) were associated with the highest BP trajectory (group 5) compared with the reference group (group 2). CONCLUSIONS: Traditional hypertension risk factors including smoking, diabetes, and elevated lipids were associated with BP trajectories in young adults, with obesity having the strongest association with the highest BP trajectory group.

Cardiovascular Risk Associated With Social Determinants of Health at Individual and Area Levels.

Importance: The benefit of adding social determinants of health (SDOH) when estimating atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk is unclear. Objective: To examine the association of SDOH at both individual and area levels with ASCVD risks, and to assess if adding individual- and area-level SDOH to the pooled cohort equations (PCEs) or the Predicting Risk of CVD Events (PREVENT) equations improves the accuracy of risk estimates. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included participants data from 4 large US cohort studies. Eligible participants were aged 40 to 79 years without a history of ASCVD. Baseline data were collected from 1995 to 2007; median (IQR) follow-up was 13.0 (9.3-15.0) years. Data were analyzed from September 2023 to February 2024. Exposures: Individual- and area-level education, income, and employment status. Main outcomes and measures: ASCVD was defined as the composite outcome of nonfatal myocardial infarction, death from coronary heart disease, and fatal or nonfatal stroke. Results: A total of 26 316 participants were included (mean [SD] age, 61.0 [9.1] years; 15 494 women [58.9%]; 11 365 Black [43.2%], 703 Chinese American [2.7%], 1278 Hispanic [4.9%], and 12 970 White [49.3%]); 11 764 individuals (44.7%) had at least 1 adverse individual-level SDOH and 10 908 (41.5%) had at least 1 adverse area-level SDOH. A total of 2673 ASCVD events occurred during follow-up. SDOH were associated with increased risk of ASCVD at both the individual and area levels, including for low education (individual: hazard ratio [HR], 1.39 [95% CI, 1.25-1.55]; area: HR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.20-1.42]), low income (individual: 1.35 [95% CI, 1.25-1.47]; area: HR, 1.28 [95% CI, 1.17-1.40]), and unemployment (individual: HR, 1.61 [95% CI, 1.24-2.10]; area: HR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.14-1.37]). Adding area-level SDOH alone to the PCEs did not change model discrimination but modestly improved calibration. Furthermore, adding both individual- and area-level SDOH to the PCEs led to a modest improvement in both discrimination and calibration in non-Hispanic Black individuals (change in C index, 0.0051 [95% CI, 0.0011 to 0.0126]; change in scaled integrated Brier score [IBS], 0.396% [95% CI, 0.221% to 0.802%]), and improvement in calibration in White individuals (change in scaled IBS, 0.274% [95% CI, 0.095% to 0.665%]). Adding individual-level SDOH to the PREVENT plus area-level social deprivation index (SDI) equations did not improve discrimination but modestly improved calibration in White participants (change in scaled IBS, 0.182% [95% CI, 0.040% to 0.496%]), Black participants (0.187% [95% CI, 0.039% to 0.501%]), and women (0.289% [95% CI, 0.115% to 0.574%]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, both individual- and area-level SDOH were associated with ASCVD risk; adding both individual- and area-level SDOH to the PCEs modestly improved discrimination and calibration for estimating ASCVD risk for Black individuals, and adding individual-level SDOH to PREVENT plus SDI also modestly improved calibration. These findings suggest that both individual- and area-level SDOH may be considered in future development of ASCVD risk assessment tools, particularly among Black individuals.

Spectrum of prevalent cardiovascular diseases in urban Port-au-Prince, Haiti: a population-based cross-sectional study.

Background: Eighty percent of global cardiovascular disease (CVD) is projected to occur in low- and middle -income countries (LMICs), yet local epidemiological data are scarce. We provide the first population-based, adjudicated CVD prevalence estimates in Port-au-Prince, Haiti to describe the spectrum of heart disease and investigate associated risk factors. Methods: Demographic, medical history, clinical, imaging and laboratory data were collected among adults recruited using multistage random sampling from 2019 to 2021. Prevalent CVD (heart failure, stroke, ischemic disease) were adjudicated using epidemiological criteria similar to international cohorts. Multivariable Poisson regressions assessed relationships between risk factors and prevalent CVD. Findings: Among 3003 participants, median age was 40 years, 58.1% were female, 70.2% reported income <1 USD/day, and all identified as Black Haitian. CVD age-adjusted prevalence was 14.7% (95% CI 13.3%, 16.5%), including heart failure (11.9% [95% CI 10.5%, 13.5%]), stroke (2.4% [95% CI 1.9%, 3.3%]), angina (2.1% [95% CI 1.6%, 2.9%]), myocardial infarction (1.0% [95% CI 0.6%, 1.8%]), and transient ischemic attack (0.4% [95% CI 0.2%, 1.0%]). Among participants with heart failure, median age was 57 years and 68.5% of cases were among women. The most common subtype was heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (80.4%). Heart failure was associated with hypertension, obesity, chronic kidney disease, depression, and stress. Interpretation: Early-onset heart failure prevalence is alarmingly high in urban Haiti and challenge modelling assumptions that ischemic heart disease and stroke dominate CVDs in LMICs. These data underscore the importance of local population-based epidemiologic data within LMICs to expedite the selection and implementation of evidence-based cardiovascular health policies targeting each country's spectrum of heart disease. Funding: This study was funded by NIH grants R01HL143788, D43TW011972, and K24HL163393, clinicaltrials.govNCT03892265.

Lay Health Worker Interventions in Rheumatology: A Scoping Review.

OBJECTIVE: To determine next steps for lay health worker (LHW) intervention research, specifically in patients with rheumatic musculoskeletal diseases (RMDs), there is a need to establish what strategies have been effective for chronic disease management thus far. The goal of this scoping review is to collate the literature of LHW interventions for adults with RMDs to inform next steps for LHW research. METHODS: A comprehensive literature search was performed in the following databases from inception to September 2021: Ovid Medline, Ovid Embase, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and The Cochrane Library. Studies retrieved were then screened for eligibility against predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. RESULTS: Twenty-two articles were eligible and included in this review. The most common RMDs studied, not mutually exclusive, were osteoarthritis (n = 13), rheumatoid arthritis (n = 9), and unspecified or other RMD (n = 14). Most studies had a homogenous patient population, enrolling White, non-Hispanic, or Latina women over the age of 60 (n = 13). Eight studies observed statistically significant results in the intervention arm compared with the control. Only one of these studies exhibited sustained treatment effects past one year. CONCLUSION: There are not enough data to conclude if LHW interventions have a positive, null, or negative effect on patients with RMDs. Future LHW interventions should specify a priori hypotheses, be powered to detect statistical significance for primary outcomes, employ a theoretical framework, include an active control, describe training protocols for LHWs, and increase minority representation to establish the effectiveness of LHWs for patients with RMDs.

Practice Facilitation and Peer Coaching for Uncontrolled Hypertension Among Black Individuals: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Rural Black participants need effective intervention to achieve better blood pressure (BP) control. Objective: Among Black rural adults with persistently uncontrolled hypertension attending primary care clinics, to determine whether peer coaching (PC), practice facilitation (PF), or both (PCPF) are superior to enhanced usual care (EUC) in improving BP control. Design, Setting, and Participants: A cluster randomized clinical trial was conducted in 69 rural primary care practices across Alabama and North Carolina between September 23, 2016, and September 26, 2019. The participating practices were randomized to 4 groups: PC plus EUC, PF plus EUC, PCPF plus EUC, and EUC alone. The baseline EUC approach included a laptop for each participating practice with hyperlinks to participant education on hypertension, a binder of practice tips, a poster showing an algorithm for stepped care to improve BP, and 25 home BP monitors. The trial was stopped on February 28, 2021, after final data collection. The study included Black participants with persistently uncontrolled hypertension. Data were analyzed from February 28, 2021, to December 13, 2022. Interventions: Practice facilitators helped practices implement at least 4 quality improvement projects designed to improve BP control throughout 1 year. Peer coaches delivered a structured program via telephone on hypertension self-management throughout 1 year. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the proportion of participants in each trial group with BP values of less than 140/90 mm Hg at 6 months and 12 months. The secondary outcome was a change in the systolic BP of participants at 6 months and 12 months. Results: A total of 69 practices were randomized, and 1209 participants' data were included in the analysis. The mean (SD) age of participants was 58 (12) years, and 748 (62%) were women. In the intention-to-treat analyses, neither intervention alone nor in combination improved BP control or BP levels more than EUC (at 12 months, PF vs EUC odds ratio [OR], 0.94 [95% CI, 0.58-1.52]; PC vs EUC OR, 1.30 [95% CI, 0.83-2.04]; PCPF vs EUC OR, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.64-1.64]). In preplanned subgroup analyses, participants younger than 60 years in the PC and PCPF groups experienced a significant 5 mm Hg greater reduction in systolic BP than participants younger than 60 years in the EUC group at 12 months. Practicewide BP control estimates in PF groups suggested that BP control improved from 54% to 61%, a finding that was not observed in the trial's participants. Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this cluster randomized clinical trial demonstrated that neither PC nor PF demonstrated a superior improvement in overall BP control compared with EUC. However, PC led to a significant reduction in systolic BP among younger adults. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02866669.

Ambulatory Care Fragmentation and Total Health Care Costs.

BACKGROUND: The magnitude of the relationship between ambulatory care fragmentation and subsequent total health care costs is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between ambulatory care fragmentation and total health care costs. RESEARCH DESIGN: Longitudinal analysis of 15 years of data (2004-2018) from the national Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study, linked to Medicare fee-for-service claims. SUBJECTS: A total of 13,680 Medicare beneficiaries who are 65 years and older. MEASURES: We measured ambulatory care fragmentation in each calendar year, defining high fragmentation as a reversed Bice-Boxerman Index ≥0.85 and low as <0.85. We used generalized linear models to determine the association between ambulatory care fragmentation in 1 year and total Medicare expenditures (costs) in the following year, adjusting for baseline demographic and clinical characteristics, a time-varying comorbidity index, and accounting for geographic variation in reimbursement and inflation. RESULTS: The average participant was 70.9 years old; approximately half (53%) were women. One-fourth (26%) of participants had high fragmentation in the first year of observation. Those participants had a median of 9 visits to 6 providers, with the most frequently seen provider accounting for 29% of visits. By contrast, participants with low fragmentation had a median of 8 visits to 3 providers, with the most frequently seen provider accounting for 50% of visits. High fragmentation was associated with $1085 more in total adjusted costs per person per year (95% CI $713 to $1457) than low fragmentation. CONCLUSIONS: Highly fragmented ambulatory care in 1 year is independently associated with higher total costs the following year.

Neighborhood Disadvantage and Risk of Heart Failure: The Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) Study.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) affects >6 million US adults, with recent increases in HF hospitalizations. We aimed to investigate the association between neighborhood disadvantage and incident HF events and potential differences by diabetes status. METHODS: We included 23 645 participants from the REGARDS study (Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke), a prospective cohort of Black and White adults aged ≥45 years living in the continental United States (baseline 2005-2007). Neighborhood disadvantage was assessed using a Z score of 6 census tract variables (2000 US Census) and categorized as quartiles. Incident HF hospitalizations or HF-related deaths through 2017 were adjudicated. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression was used to examine the association between neighborhood disadvantage and incident HF. Heterogeneity by diabetes was assessed using an interaction term. RESULTS: The mean age was 64.4 years, 39.5% were Black adults, 54.9% females, and 18.8% had diabetes. During a median follow-up of 10.7 years, there were 1125 incident HF events with an incidence rate of 3.3 (quartile 1), 4.7 (quartile 2), 5.2 (quartile 3), and 6.0 (quartile 4) per 1000 person-years. Compared to adults living in the most advantaged neighborhoods (quartile 1), those living in neighborhoods in quartiles 2, 3, and 4 (most disadvantaged) had 1.30 (95% CI, 1.06-1.60), 1.36 (95% CI, 1.11-1.66), and 1.45 (95% CI, 1.18-1.79) times greater hazard of incident HF even after accounting for known confounders. This association did not significantly differ by diabetes status (interaction P=0.59). For adults with diabetes, the adjusted incident HF hazards comparing those in quartile 4 versus quartile 1 was 1.34 (95% CI, 0.92-1.96), and it was 1.50 (95% CI, 1.16-1.94) for adults without diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: In this large contemporaneous prospective cohort, neighborhood disadvantage was associated with an increased risk of incident HF events. This increase in HF risk did not differ by diabetes status. Addressing social, economic, and structural factors at the neighborhood level may impact HF prevention.

Association Between Pharmacy Proximity With Cardiovascular Medication Use and Risk Factor Control in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Poor neighborhood-level access to health care, including community pharmacies, contributes to cardiovascular disparities in the United States. The authors quantified the association between pharmacy proximity, antihypertensive and statin use, and blood pressure (BP) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) among a large, diverse US cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: A cross-sectional analysis of Black and White participants in the REGARDS (Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke) study during 2013 to 2016 was conducted. The authors designated pharmacy proximity by census tract using road network analysis with population-weighted centroids within a 10-minute drive time, with 5- and 20-minute sensitivity analyses. Pill bottle review measured medication use, and BP and LDL-C were assessed using standard methods. Poisson regression was used to quantify the association between pharmacy proximity with medication use and BP control, and linear regression for LDL-C. Among 16 150 REGARDS participants between 2013 and 2016, 8319 (51.5%) and 8569 (53.1%) had an indication for antihypertensive and statin medication, respectively, and pharmacy proximity data. The authors did not find a consistent association between living in a census tract with higher pharmacy proximity and antihypertensive medication use, BP control, or statin medication use and LDL-C levels, regardless of whether the area was rural, suburban, or urban. Results were similar among the 5- and 20-minute drive-time analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Living in a low pharmacy proximity census tract may be associated with antihypertensive and statin medication use, or with BP control and LDL-C levels. Although, in this US cohort, outcomes were similar for adults living in high or low pharmacy proximity census tracts.

Association of Healthy Lifestyle and Incident Polypharmacy.

BACKGROUND: Polypharmacy, commonly defined as taking ≥5 medications, is an undesirable state associated with lower quality of life. Strategies to prevent polypharmacy may be an important priority for patients. We sought to examine the association of healthy lifestyle, a modifiable risk factor, with incident polypharmacy. METHODS: We performed a secondary analysis of the REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort study, including 15,478 adults aged ≥45 years without polypharmacy at baseline. The primary exposure was healthy lifestyle at baseline as measured by the Healthy Behavior Score (HBS), a cumulative assessment of diet, exercise frequency, tobacco smoking, and sedentary time. HBS ranges from 0-8, whereby 0-2 indicates low HBS, 3-5 indicates moderate HBS, and 6-8 indicates high HBS. We used multinomial logistic regression to examine the association between HBS and incident polypharmacy, survival without polypharmacy, and death. RESULTS: Higher HBS (i.e., healthier lifestyle) was inversely associated with incident polypharmacy after adjusting for sociodemographic and baseline health variables. Compared with participants with low HBS, those with moderate HBS had lower odds of incident polypharmacy (odds ratio [OR] 0.85; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73-0.98) and lower odds of dying (OR 0.74; 95% CI, 0.65-0.83). Participants with high HBS had even lower odds of both incident polypharmacy (OR 0.75; 95% CI, 0.64-0.88) and death (OR 0.62; 95% CI, 0.54-0.70). There was an interaction for age, where the association between HBS and incident polypharmacy was most pronounced for participants aged ≤65 years. CONCLUSIONS: Healthier lifestyle was associated with lower risk for incident polypharmacy.

Prognostic Factors in Alcohol-associated Liver Disease Patients Presenting With First Evidence of Ascites.

GOALS: To identify factors associated with transplantation and death in alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) patients presenting with first evidence of ascites. BACKGROUND: Ascites development is a poor prognostic sign for patients with cirrhosis. Among ALD patients, the baseline factors at time of ascites development that are associated with eventual transplantation or death are currently unknown. STUDY: Adult patients with ascites in the "Evaluating Alcohol Use in Alcohol-related Liver Disease Prospective Cohort Study" (NCT03267069 clinicaltrials.gov) were identified from 2016 to 2020. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory factors at initial ascites presentation were identified as potential predictors of transplant and death as competing risks. RESULTS: A total of 96 patients were identified. Median (interquartile range) follow-up time was 2.00 years (0.87 to 3.85). By last follow-up, 34/96 patients had been transplanted (35.4%) and 11/96 had died (11.4%). Prognostic factors for transplant included age per decade [hazard ratio (HR): 0.52 (95% CI, 0.33 to 0.83)], employed status [HR: 0.35 (95% CI, 0.14 to 0.90)], and sodium [HR: 0.94 (95% CI, 0.90 to 0.99)], whereas prognostic factors for death were body mass index [HR: 1.11 (95% CI, 1.00 to 1.22)], Charlson index [HR: 2.14 [95% CI, 1.13 to 4.08]), Maddrey Discriminant Function >32 (HR: 5.88 (95% CI, 1.18, 29.39)], aspartate aminotransferase [HR: 0.99 (95% CI, 0.98 to 0.997)], and a prior 12-month abstinence period [HR: 5.53 (95% CI, 1.10 to 27.83)], adjusted for age, sex, and ALD subcategory. CONCLUSIONS: Several factors at initial ascites presentation are associated with increased risk of transplantation or death and validation in larger cohorts will allow for improved risk stratification for ALD patients.

Affordable Care Act Medicaid expansion associated with increased liver transplant waitlist access without worsening mortality.

It is unclear what impact Affordable Care Act (ACA) Medicaid expansion has had on the liver transplantation (LT) waitlist. We aimed to assess associations between ACA Medicaid expansion and LT waitlist outcomes. The United Network for Organ Sharing Standard Transplant Analysis and Research (UNOS STAR) database was queried for patients listed for LT between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2018. Our primary outcome was waitlist mortality and our secondary outcomes included Medicaid use on the LT waitlist and transplant rate. States were divided into groups based on their expansion status and the study period was divided into 2 time intervals-pre-expansion and post-expansion. Difference-in-difference (DiD) models were created to assess the impacts of expansion on each of the outcomes and for racial/ethnic and sex groups. In total, 56,414 patients from expansion states and 32,447 patients from nonexpansion states were included. Three-year waitlist mortality decreased at a similar rate in both cohorts [DiD estimate: 0.1, (95% CI, -1.1, -1.4), p = 0.838], but Medicaid use increased [DiD estimate: +7.7, (95% CI, 6.7, 8.7), p < 0.001] to a greater degree in expansion states after expansion than nonexpansion states. Between the 2 time intervals, Medicaid use on the LT waitlist increased from 19.4% to 26.1% in expansion states but decreased from 13.4% to 12.1% in nonexpansion states. In patients on Medicaid, there was a slight increase in the 3-year transplant rate associated with Medicaid expansion [DiD estimate +5.0, (95% CI, 1.8, 8.3), p = 0.002], which may in part be explained by differences in patient characteristics. Medicaid expansion was associated with increased Medicaid use on the LT waitlist without worsening overall waitlist mortality or transplant rate, suggesting that lenient and widespread public health insurance may increase access to the LT waitlist without adversely affecting outcomes.

Comparative Discrimination of Life's Simple 7 and Life's Essential 8 to Stratify Cardiovascular Risk: Is the Added Complexity Worth It?

BACKGROUND: Life's Simple 7 (LS7) is an easily calculated and interpreted metric of cardiovascular health based on 7 domains: smoking, diet, physical activity, body mass index, blood pressure, cholesterol, and fasting glucose. The Life's Essential 8 (LE8) metric was subsequently introduced, adding sleep metrics and revisions of the previous 7 domains. Although calculating LE8 requires additional information, we hypothesized that it would be a more reliable index of cardiovascular health. METHODS: Both the LS7 and LE8 metrics yield scores with higher values indicating lower risk. These were calculated among 11 609 Black and White participants free of baseline cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke study, enrolled in 2003 to 2007, and followed for a median of 13 years. Differences in 10-year risk of incident CVD (coronary heart disease or stroke) were calculated as a function LS7, and LE8 scores were calculated using Kaplan-Meier and proportional hazards analyses. Differences in incident CVD discrimination were quantified by difference in the c-statistic. RESULTS: For both LS7 and LE8, the 10-year risk was approximately 5% for participants around the 99th percentile of scores, and a 4× higher 20% risk for participants around the first percentile. Comparing LS7 to LE8, 10-year risk was nearly identical for individuals at the same relative position in score distribution. For example, the "cluster" of 2013 participants with an LS7 score of 7 was at the 35.8th percentile in distribution of LS7 scores, and had an estimated 10-year CVD risk of 8.4% (95% CI, 7.2%-9.8%). In a similar location in the LE8 distribution, the 1457 participants with an LE8 score of 60±2.5 at the 39.4th percentile of LE8 scores had a 10-year risk of CVD of 8.5% (95% CI, 7.1%-10.1%), similar to the cluster defined by LS7. The age-race-sex adjusted c-statistic of the LS7 model was 0.691 (95% CI, 0.667-0.705), and 0.695 for LE8 (95% CI, 0.681-0.709) (P for difference, 0.12). CONCLUSIONS: Both LS7 and LE8 were associated with incident CVD, with discrimination of the 2 indices practically indistinguishable. As a simpler metric, LS7 may be favored for use by the general population and clinicians.

Risk Prediction for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease With and Without Race Stratification.

Importance: Use of race-specific risk prediction in clinical medicine is being questioned. Yet, the most commonly used prediction tool for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD)-pooled cohort risk equations (PCEs)-uses race stratification. Objective: To quantify the incremental value of race-specific PCEs and determine whether adding social determinants of health (SDOH) instead of race improves model performance. Design, Setting, and Participants: Included in this analysis were participants from the biracial Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) prospective cohort study. Participants were aged 45 to 79 years, without ASCVD, and with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level of 70 to 189 mg/dL or non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level of 100 to 219 mg/dL at baseline during the period of 2003 to 2007. Participants were followed up to 10 years for incident ASCVD, including myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease death, and fatal and nonfatal stroke. Study data were analyzed from July 2022 to February 2023. Main outcome/measures: Discrimination (C statistic, Net Reclassification Index [NRI]), and calibration (plots, Nam D'Agostino test statistic comparing observed to predicted events) were assessed for the original PCE, then for a set of best-fit, race-stratified equations including the same variables as in the PCE (model C), best-fit equations without race stratification (model D), and best-fit equations without race stratification but including SDOH as covariates (model E). Results: This study included 11 638 participants (mean [SD] age, 61.8 [8.3] years; 6764 female [58.1%]) from the REGARDS cohort. Across all strata (Black female, Black male, White female, and White male participants), C statistics did not change substantively compared with model C (Black female, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.68-0.75; Black male, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.64-0.73; White female, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.74-0.81; White male, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.64-0.71), in model D (Black female, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.67-0.75; Black male, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.63-0.72; White female, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.73-0.80; White male, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.65-0.71), or in model E (Black female, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.68-0.76; Black male, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.64-0.72; White female, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.74-0.80; White male, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.65-0.71). Comparing model D with E using the NRI showed a net percentage decline in the correct assignment to higher risk for male but not female individuals. The Nam D'Agostino test was not significant for all race-sex strata in each model series, indicating good calibration in all groups. Conclusions: Results of this cohort study suggest that PCE performed well overall but had poorer performance in both BM and WM participants compared with female participants regardless of race in the REGARDS cohort. Removal of race or the addition of SDOH did not improve model performance in any subgroup.

Building knowledge using a novel web-based intervention to promote HPV vaccination in a diverse, low-income population.

OBJECTIVES: HPV vaccination rates remain suboptimal despite proven efficacy. Data suggest misconceptions or lack of knowledge are leading barriers. Our study aimed to develop and pilot a novel interactive education resource designed to educate parents and patients about HPV vaccines. METHODS: This is a prospective pilot study conducted in an urban teaching hospital pediatric clinic. The Patient Activated Learning System (PALS) intervention included 3 web-based videos with HPV vaccine-related educational content. Participants were parents of adolescent patients, aged 11-17 years, and young adult patients, aged 18-26 years. Enrolled participants completed an HPV vaccine knowledge survey before and after watching PALS; paired scores were evaluated. Acceptability and participant-reported impact of PALS modules were measured via Likert-scale surveys. RESULTS: 132 individuals were approached; 101 (76%) enrolled and completed the study. Participants self-identified as Hispanic (50%), non-Hispanic Black (23%), non-Hispanic White (7%), Asian (6%), American/Alaskan/Hawaiian Native or Pacific Islander (5%). Half reported earning ≤$40,000 annually; 57% had only a high school education. Post-intervention knowledge scores were increased compared to baseline (9.87/27 points vs 17.53/27 points, p < 0.01). PALS modules were reported as enjoyable to use and understandable (89% and 93%, respectively), and improved participants' understanding of the importance of HPV vaccination (90%). Of the 18 patients unvaccinated at baseline, 39% received 1 shot of the HPV vaccine within one month. CONCLUSION: The PALS HPV vaccine educational intervention was feasible, acceptable, and improved knowledge among a diverse, underserved population. Our intervention may positively influence HPV vaccination rates, with potential to overcome HPV vaccine hesitancy.