Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Russia reveals recurring cross-border transmission throughout 2020.

In 2020, SARS-CoV-2 has spread rapidly across the globe, with most nations failing to prevent or substantially delay its introduction. While many countries have imposed some limitations on trans-border passenger traffic, the effect of these measures on the global spread of COVID-19 strains remains unclear. Here, we report an analysis of 3206 whole-genome sequences of SARS-CoV-2 samples from 78 regions of Russia covering the period before the spread of variants of concern (between March and November 2020). We describe recurring imports of multiple COVID-19 strains into Russia throughout this period, giving rise to 457 uniquely Russian transmission lineages, as well as repeated cross-border transmissions of local circulating variants out of Russia. While the phylogenetically inferred rate of cross-border transmissions was somewhat reduced during the period of the most stringent border closure, it still remained high, with multiple inferred imports that each led to detectable spread within the country. These results indicate that partial border closure has had little effect on trans-border transmission of variants, which helps explain the rapid global spread of newly arising SARS-CoV-2 variants throughout the pandemic.

SARS-CoV-2 escape from cytotoxic T cells during long-term COVID-19.

Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in immunocompromised hosts may result in novel variants with changed properties. While escape from humoral immunity certainly contributes to intra-host evolution, escape from cellular immunity is poorly understood. Here, we report a case of long-term COVID-19 in an immunocompromised patient with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma who received treatment with rituximab and lacked neutralizing antibodies. Over the 318 days of the disease, the SARS-CoV-2 genome gained a total of 40 changes, 34 of which were present by the end of the study period. Among the acquired mutations, 12 reduced or prevented the binding of known immunogenic SARS-CoV-2 HLA class I antigens. By experimentally assessing the effect of a subset of the escape mutations, we show that they resulted in a loss of as much as ~1% of effector CD8 T cell response. Our results indicate that CD8 T cell escape represents a major underappreciated contributor to SARS-CoV-2 evolution in humans.

Spread of endemic SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Russia before April 2021.

In 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic was characterized by global spread of several lineages with evidence for increased transmissibility. Throughout the pandemic, Russia has remained among the countries with the highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases, making it a potential hotspot for emergence of novel variants. Here, we show that among the globally significant variants of concern that have spread globally by late 2020, alpha (B.1.1.7), beta (B.1.351) or gamma (P.1), none have been sampled in Russia before the end of 2020. Instead, between summer 2020 and spring 2021, the epidemic in Russia has been characterized by the spread of two lineages that were rare in most other countries: B.1.1.317 and a sublineage of B.1.1 including B.1.1.397 (hereafter, B.1.1.397+). Their frequency has increased concordantly in different parts of Russia. On top of these lineages, in late December 2020, alpha (B.1.1.7) emerged in Russia, reaching a frequency of 17.4% (95% C.I.: 12.0%-24.4%) in March 2021. Additionally, we identify three novel distinct lineages, AT.1, B.1.1.524 and B.1.1.525, that have started to spread, together reaching the frequency of 11.8% (95% C.I.: 7.5%-18.1%) in March 2021. These lineages carry combinations of several notable mutations, including the S:E484K mutation of concern, deletions at a recurrent deletion region of the spike glycoprotein (S:Δ140-142, S:Δ144 or S:Δ136-144), and nsp6:Δ106-108 (also known as ORF1a:Δ3675-3677). Community-based PCR testing indicates that these variants have continued to spread in April 2021, with the frequency of B.1.1.7 reaching 21.7% (95% C.I.: 12.3%-35.6%), and the joint frequency of B.1.1.524 and B.1.1.525, 15.2% (95% C.I.: 7.6%-28.2%). Although these variants have been displaced by the onset of delta variant in May-June 2021, lineages B.1.1.317, B.1.1.397+, AT.1, B.1.1.524 and B.1.1.525 and the combinations of mutations comprising them that are found in other lineages merit monitoring.

Molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 in Oryol Oblast, Russia.

The HIV/AIDS epidemic in Russia is growing, with approximately 100,000 people infected annually. Molecular epidemiology can provide insight into the structure and dynamics of the epidemic. However, its applicability in Russia is limited by the weakness of genetic surveillance, as viral genetic data are only available for <1 per cent of cases. Here, we provide a detailed description of the HIV-1 epidemic for one geographic region of Russia, Oryol Oblast, by collecting and sequencing viral samples from about a third of its known HIV-positive population (768 out of 2,157 patients). We identify multiple introductions of HIV-1 into Oryol Oblast, resulting in eighty-two transmission lineages that together comprise 66 per cent of the samples. Most introductions are of subtype A (315/332), the predominant HIV-1 subtype in Russia, followed by CRF63 and subtype B. Bayesian analysis estimates the effective reproduction number Re for subtype A at 2.8 [1.7-4.4], in line with a growing epidemic. The frequency of CRF63 has been growing more rapidly, with the median Re of 11.8 [4.6-28.7], in agreement with recent reports of this variant rising in frequency in some regions of Russia. In contrast to the patterns described previously in European and North American countries, we see no overrepresentation of males in transmission lineages; meanwhile, injecting drug users are overrepresented in transmission lineages. This likely reflects the structure of the HIV-1 epidemic in Russia dominated by heterosexual and, to a smaller extent, people who inject drugs transmission. Samples attributed to men who have sex with men (MSM) transmission are associated with subtype B and are less prevalent than expected from the male-to-female ratio for this subtype, suggesting underreporting of the MSM transmission route. Together, our results provide a high-resolution description of the HIV-1 epidemic in Oryol Oblast, Russia, characterized by frequent interregional transmission, rapid growth of the epidemic, and rapid displacement of subtype A with the recombinant CRF63 variant.

The rise and spread of the SARS-CoV-2 AY.122 lineage in Russia.

Delta has outcompeted most preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2, becoming the globally predominant lineage by mid-2021. Its subsequent evolution has led to the emergence of multiple sublineages, most of which are well-mixed between countries. By contrast, here we show that nearly the entire Delta epidemic in Russia has probably descended from a single import event, or from multiple closely timed imports from a single poorly sampled geographic location. Indeed, over 90 per cent of Delta samples in Russia are characterized by the nsp2:K81N + ORF7a:P45L pair of mutations which is rare outside Russia, putting them in the AY.122 sublineage. The AY.122 lineage was frequent in Russia among Delta samples from the start, and has not increased in frequency in other countries where it has been observed, suggesting that its high prevalence in Russia has probably resulted from a random founder effect rather than a transmission advantage. The apartness of the genetic composition of the Delta epidemic in Russia makes Russia somewhat unusual, although not exceptional, among other countries.

Genomic epidemiology of the early stages of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Russia.

The ongoing pandemic of SARS-CoV-2 presents novel challenges and opportunities for the use of phylogenetics to understand and control its spread. Here, we analyze the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in Russia in March and April 2020. Combining phylogeographic analysis with travel history data, we estimate that the sampled viral diversity has originated from at least 67 closely timed introductions into Russia, mostly in late February to early March. All but one of these introductions were not from China, suggesting that border closure with China has helped delay establishment of SARS-CoV-2 in Russia. These introductions resulted in at least 9 distinct Russian lineages corresponding to domestic transmission. A notable transmission cluster corresponded to a nosocomial outbreak at the Vreden hospital in Saint Petersburg; phylodynamic analysis of this cluster reveals multiple (2-3) introductions each giving rise to a large number of cases, with a high initial effective reproduction number of 3.0 [1.9, 4.3].

Allele-specific nonstationarity in evolution of influenza A virus surface proteins.

Influenza A virus (IAV) is a major public health problem and a pandemic threat. Its evolution is largely driven by diversifying positive selection so that relative fitness of different amino acid variants changes with time due to changes in herd immunity or genomic context, and novel amino acid variants attain fitness advantage. Here, we hypothesize that diversifying selection also has another manifestation: the fitness associated with a particular amino acid variant should decline with time since its origin, as the herd immunity adapts to it. By tracing the evolution of antigenic sites at IAV surface proteins, we show that an amino acid variant becomes progressively more likely to become replaced by another variant with time since its origin-a phenomenon we call "senescence." Senescence is particularly pronounced at experimentally validated antigenic sites, implying that it is largely driven by host immunity. By contrast, at internal sites, existing variants become more favorable with time, probably due to arising contingent mutations at other epistatically interacting sites. Our findings reveal a previously undescribed facet of adaptive evolution and suggest approaches for prediction of evolutionary dynamics of pathogens.

Genetics of Adaptation of the Ascomycetous Fungus Podospora anserina to Submerged Cultivation.

Podospora anserina is a model ascomycetous fungus which shows pronounced phenotypic senescence when grown on solid medium but possesses unlimited lifespan under submerged cultivation. In order to study the genetic aspects of adaptation of P. anserina to submerged cultivation, we initiated a long-term evolution experiment. In the course of the first 4 years of the experiment, 125 single-nucleotide substitutions and 23 short indels were fixed in eight independently evolving populations. Six proteins that affect fungal growth and development evolved in more than one population; in particular, in the G-protein alpha subunit FadA, new alleles fixed in seven out of eight experimental populations, and these fixations affected just four amino acid sites, which is an unprecedented level of parallelism in experimental evolution. Parallel evolution at the level of genes and pathways, an excess of nonsense and missense substitutions, and an elevated conservation of proteins and their sites where the changes occurred suggest that many of the observed fixations were adaptive and driven by positive selection.

Compensatory Evolution of Intrinsic Transcription Terminators in Bacillus Cereus.

Many RNA molecules possess complicated secondary structure critical to their function. Mutations in double-helical regions of RNA may disrupt Watson-Crick (WC) interactions causing structure destabilization or even complete loss of function. Such disruption can be compensated by another mutation restoring base pairing, as has been shown for mRNA, rRNA and tRNA. Here, we investigate the evolution of intrinsic transcription terminators between closely related strains of Bacillus cereus. While the terminator structure is maintained by strong natural selection, as evidenced by the low frequency of disrupting mutations, we observe multiple instances of pairs of disrupting-compensating mutations in RNA structure stems. Such two-step switches between different WC pairs occur very fast, consistent with the low fitness conferred by the intermediate non-WC variant. Still, they are not instantaneous, and probably involve transient fixation of the intermediate variant. The GU wobble pair is the most frequent intermediate, and remains fixed longer than other intermediates, consistent with its less disruptive effect on the RNA structure. Double switches involving non-GU intermediates are more frequent at the ends of RNA stems, probably because they are associated with smaller fitness loss. Together, these results show that the fitness landscape of bacterial transcription terminators is rather rugged, but that the fitness valleys associated with unpaired stem nucleotides are rather shallow, facilitating evolution.