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1.
Nat Commun ; 15(1): 4069, 2024 May 14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38744878

RESUMO

In malaria epidemiology, interpolation frameworks based on available observations are critical for policy decisions and interpreting disease burden. Updating our understanding of the empirical evidence across different populations, settings, and timeframes is crucial to improving inference for supporting public health. Here, via individual-based modeling, we evaluate a large, multicountry, contemporary Plasmodium falciparum severe malaria dataset to better understand the relationship between prevalence and incidence of malaria pediatric hospitalizations - a proxy of malaria severe outcomes- in East-Africa. We find that life-long exposure dynamics, and subsequent protection patterns in children, substantially determine the likelihood of malaria hospitalizations relative to ongoing prevalence at the population level. Unsteady transmission patterns over a lifetime in children -increasing or decreasing- lead to an exponential relationship of hospitalization rates versus prevalence rather than the asymptotic pattern observed under steady transmission. Addressing this increase in the complexity of malaria epidemiology is crucial to update burden assessments via inference models that guide current and future policy decisions.


Assuntos
Hospitalização , Malária Falciparum , Humanos , Malária Falciparum/epidemiologia , Malária Falciparum/transmissão , Malária Falciparum/parasitologia , Criança , Prevalência , Pré-Escolar , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Lactente , Incidência , Plasmodium falciparum , Feminino , Masculino , Adolescente
2.
Lancet Reg Health Am ; 24: 100549, 2023 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37485018

RESUMO

Background: The development of bipolar disorder is currently explained by a complex interaction of genetic and environmental factors. Less is known regarding the influence of sociocultural factors. This study aims to evaluate the incidence and impact of sociocultural factors on bipolar disorder onset in two comparable samples of youth growing up in different social settings. Methods: We leveraged data from two urban population-based cohorts representative of Puerto Rican children growing up in either San Juan (Puerto Rico) or the South Bronx (NYC) and followed up for 17 years. Bipolar disorder diagnoses were based on retrospective self-reports on the World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview. We used a causal inference approach to estimate associations of sociocultural factors with bipolar disorder onset after adjusting for potential confounders. Findings: We found that South Bronx children, who grew up as a minoritized group, had twice the risk of bipolar disorder onset as young adults, with an incidence rate of 2.22 new cases per 1000 person-years compared to 1.08 new cases in San Juan (incidence rate difference, 1.13; 95% CI, 0.09-1.20). After adjusting for potential confounders, South Bronx children had the same lifetime hazard of bipolar disorder onset compared to San Juan children. However, our analysis demonstrated that caregivers' exposure to societal cultural stress partially explained the increased risk of bipolar disorder onset in the South Bronx, in addition to the potential contribution of genetics. Interpretation: Our results provide evidence that societal cultural stress can increase the risk of lifetime bipolar disorder onset in youth growing up as a minoritized group. Addressing stress in minoritized groups might reduce the risk of bipolar disorder onset. Funding: The Boricua Youth Study has been supported by the National Institutes of HealthMH56401, MH098374, DA033172, and AA020191. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the article.

3.
Clin Microbiol Infect ; 29(1): 85-93, 2023 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35940567

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To assess the effect of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) and Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) as pre-exposure prophylaxis on COVID-19 risk. METHODS: EPICOS is a double-blind, placebo-controlled randomized trial conducted in Spain, Bolivia, and Venezuela. Healthcare workers with negative SARS-CoV-2 IgM/IgG test were randomly assigned to the following: daily TDF/FTC plus HCQ for 12 weeks, TDF/FTC plus HCQ placebo, HCQ plus TDF/FTC placebo, and TDF/FTC placebo plus HCQ placebo. Randomization was performed in groups of four. Primary outcome was laboratory-confirmed, symptomatic COVID-19. We also studied any (symptomatic or asymptomatic) COVID-19. We compared group-specific 14-week risks via differences and ratios with 95% CIs. RESULTS: Of 1002 individuals screened, 926 (92.4%) were eligible and there were 14 cases of symptomatic COVID-19: 220 were assigned to the TDF/FTC plus HCQ group (3 cases), 231 to the TDF/FTC placebo plus HCQ group (3 cases), 233 to the TDF/FTC plus HCQ placebo group (3 cases), and 223 to the double placebo group (5 cases). Compared with the double placebo group, 14-week risk ratios (95% CI) of symptomatic COVID-19 were 0.39 (0.00-1.98) for TDF + HCQ, 0.34 (0.00-2.06) for TDF, and 0.49 (0.00-2.29) for HCQ. Corresponding risk ratios of any COVID-19 were 0.51 (0.21-1.00) for TDF + HCQ, 0.81 (0.44-1.49) for TDF, and 0.73 (0.41-1.38) for HCQ. Adverse events were generally mild. DISCUSSION: The target sample size was not met. Our findings are compatible with both benefit and harm of pre-exposure prophylaxis with TDF/FTC and HCQ, alone or in combination, compared with placebo.


Assuntos
Fármacos Anti-HIV , COVID-19 , Infecções por HIV , Organofosfonatos , Profilaxia Pré-Exposição , Humanos , Tenofovir/uso terapêutico , Emtricitabina/uso terapêutico , Hidroxicloroquina/efeitos adversos , Fármacos Anti-HIV/uso terapêutico , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Infecções por HIV/prevenção & controle , Adenina , Organofosfonatos/efeitos adversos , Desoxicitidina/efeitos adversos , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Tratamento Farmacológico da COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Pessoal de Saúde , Método Duplo-Cego
4.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 16(11): e0010828, 2022 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36409773

RESUMO

Currently available drugs against Trypanosoma cruzi infection, which causes 12000 deaths annually, have limitations in their efficacy, safety and tolerability. The evaluation of therapeutic responses to available and new compounds is based on parasite detection in the bloodstream but remains challenging because a substantial proportion of infected individuals have undetectable parasitemia even when using diagnostic tools with the highest accuracy. We characterize parasite dynamics which might impact drug efficacy assessments in chronic Chagas by analyzing pre- and post-treatment quantitative-PCR data obtained from blood samples collected regularly over a year. We show that parasitemia remains at a steady-state independently of the diagnostic sensitivity. This steady-state can be probabilistically quantified and robustly predicted at an individual level. Furthermore, individuals can be assigned to categories with distinct parasitological status, allowing a more detailed evaluation of the efficacy outcomes and adjustment for potential biases. Our analysis improves understanding of parasite dynamics and provides a novel background for optimizing future drug efficacy trials in Chagas disease. Trial Registration: original trial registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01489228.


Assuntos
Doença de Chagas , Trypanosoma cruzi , Humanos , Doença de Chagas/parasitologia , Parasitemia/parasitologia , Infecção Persistente , Reação em Cadeia da Polimerase em Tempo Real , Trypanosoma cruzi/genética , Ensaios Clínicos como Assunto
5.
JACC Case Rep ; 4(18): 1218-1223, 2022 Sep 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36213882

RESUMO

After a ST-segment elevation inferior myocardial infarction, a patient developed multiple drug-refractory ventricular fibrillation (VF), triggered by a stereotypic premature ventricular complex. During an episode of sustained VF, catheter ablation of the moderator band terminated VF, with transition into monomorphic ventricular tachycardia. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first-in-human report of termination of VF during delivery of radiofrequency energy, which suggests that the focal area on moderator band of Purkinje system had an active role in the perpetuation of VF. (Level of Difficulty: Advanced.).

6.
PLoS Comput Biol ; 18(3): e1009964, 2022 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35358171

RESUMO

When responding to infectious disease outbreaks, rapid and accurate estimation of the epidemic trajectory is critical. However, two common data collection problems affect the reliability of the epidemiological data in real time: missing information on the time of first symptoms, and retrospective revision of historical information, including right censoring. Here, we propose an approach to construct epidemic curves in near real time that addresses these two challenges by 1) imputation of dates of symptom onset for reported cases using a dynamically-estimated "backward" reporting delay conditional distribution, and 2) adjustment for right censoring using the NobBS software package to nowcast cases by date of symptom onset. This process allows us to obtain an approximation of the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) in real time. We apply this approach to characterize the early SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in two Spanish regions between March and April 2020. We evaluate how these real-time estimates compare with more complete epidemiological data that became available later. We explore the impact of the different assumptions on the estimates, and compare our estimates with those obtained from commonly used surveillance approaches. Our framework can help improve accuracy, quantify uncertainty, and evaluate frequently unstated assumptions when recovering the epidemic curves from limited data obtained from public health systems in other locations.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Epidemias , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Humanos , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Estudos Retrospectivos , SARS-CoV-2
8.
Heart Rhythm ; 19(4): 527-535, 2022 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34757186

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Catheter ablation strategies for ventricular fibrillation (VF) and polymorphic ventricular tachycardia (PMVT) are not established when spontaneous triggers are rare or absent. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to report the feasibility and efficacy of a novel empiric ablation strategy of pacemapping to stored implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) template electrograms (SITE) of the clinical premature ventricular contraction (PVC) trigger. METHODS: Fifteen patients with drug-refractory VF/PMVT receiving defibrillator shocks without identifiable and mappable PVC triggers were prospectively analyzed. The protocol incorporated systematic pacemapping from known arrhythmogenic sites (moderator band/right ventricular [RV] papillary muscles, left conduction system/Purkinje network, outflow tracts) with real-time comparison between the paced ICD electrogram (EGM) morphology and SITE. RESULTS: Regions within the left Purkinje network yielded the best pacemap match for the SITE of the clinical PVC trigger in 55% of ablation targets (left posterior fascicle 6, left septal fascicle 1, left anterior fascicle 5), followed by the RV moderator band region in 14% (n = 3), RV papillary muscles in 13% (n = 3), periaortic region in 14% (n = 3), and left ventricular anterolateral papillary muscle in 4% (n = 1). Freedom from ICD therapies off antiarrhythmic drug (AAD) was 64% at 6 months and 48% at 12 months. Shock burden was reduced from 4 (2-6) to 0 (0-1) (P = .001), and use of AADs was reduced from 2 (1-2) to 0 (0-1) (P = .001). CONCLUSION: In the absence of a mappable trigger, an empiric strategy of interrogating the Purkinje network, papillary muscles, and outflow tract regions by pacemap matching with SITE of the clinical PVC is feasible to guide ablation. A significant reduction in VF/PMVT therapy burden and AAD utilization was observed after a single procedure.


Assuntos
Ablação por Cateter , Desfibriladores Implantáveis , Taquicardia Ventricular , Complexos Ventriculares Prematuros , Ablação por Cateter/métodos , Estudos de Viabilidade , Humanos , Estudos Prospectivos , Taquicardia Ventricular/cirurgia , Fibrilação Ventricular
9.
Heart Rhythm O2 ; 3(6Part B): 731-735, 2022 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36589010

RESUMO

Background: Transvenous lead extraction is the standard of care for cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED) malfunction/infection-related removal. However, data on its performance and results in underdeveloped countries are limited. Objective: The purpose of this study was to report the feasibility and efficacy of a lead extraction program in a tertiary hospital in Chile, South America. Methods: Patients requiring CIED removal at the Electrophysiology Division of the Hospital las Higuera's were retrospectively analyzed. Outcomes including procedure-related mortality, procedural success and failure, and cardiac and vascular complications were reported. Results: A total of 15 patients were analyzed (median age 68 [interquartile range 52-75] years; 80% male). Patients with lead extraction difficulty index >10 represented 33% of patients. Infection was the indication for removal in all patients, with pocket infection (80%). Mechanical rotational tools were used in 66% of cases, and a total of 29 leads were removed. Procedural success was accomplished in 93% of cases. There was 1 (7%) intraprocedural complication and no procedure-related mortality. Conclusions: The development of a lead management program is feasible, safe, and effective in underdeveloped countries.

11.
PLoS Comput Biol ; 17(11): e1009570, 2021 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34784353

RESUMO

Time lags in reporting to national surveillance systems represent a major barrier for the control of infectious diseases, preventing timely decision making and resource allocation. This issue is particularly acute for infectious diseases like malaria, which often impact rural and remote communities the hardest. In Guyana, a country located in South America, poor connectivity among remote malaria-endemic regions hampers surveillance efforts, making reporting delays a key challenge for elimination. Here, we analyze 13 years of malaria surveillance data, identifying key correlates of time lags between clinical cases occurring and being added to the central data system. We develop nowcasting methods that use historical patterns of reporting delays to estimate occurred-but-not-reported monthly malaria cases. To assess their performance, we implemented them retrospectively, using only information that would have been available at the time of estimation, and found that they substantially enhanced the estimates of malaria cases. Specifically, we found that the best performing models achieved up to two-fold improvements in accuracy (or error reduction) over known cases in selected regions. Our approach provides a simple, generalizable tool to improve malaria surveillance in endemic countries and is currently being implemented to help guide existing resource allocation and elimination efforts.


Assuntos
Malária/epidemiologia , Vigilância da População , Guiana/epidemiologia , Humanos , Modelos Estatísticos , Estudos Retrospectivos
12.
Parasit Vectors ; 14(1): 543, 2021 Oct 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34670602

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Chagas disease remains a significant public health problem in Latin America. There are only two chemotherapy drugs, nifurtimox and benznidazole, and both may have severe side effects. After complete chemotherapy of acute cases, seropositive diagnosis may revert to negative. However, there are no definitive parasitological or serological biomarkers of cure. METHODS: Following a pilot study with seven Bolivian migrants to Spain, we tested 71 serum samples from chronic patients (mean age 12.6 years) inhabiting the Argentine Chaco region. Benznidazole chemotherapy (5-8 mg/kg day, twice daily for 60 days) was administered during 2011-2016. Subsequently, pre-and post-chemotherapy serum samples were analysed in pairs by IgG1 and IgG ELISA using two different antigens and Chagas Sero K-SeT rapid diagnostic tests (RDT). Molecular diagnosis by kDNA-PCR was applied to post-treatment samples. RESULTS: Pilot data demonstrated IgG1 antibody decline in three of seven patients from Bolivia 1 year post-treatment. All Argentine patients in 2017 (averaging 5 years post-treatment), except one, were positive by conventional serology. All were kDNA-PCR-negative. Most (91.5%) pre-treatment samples were positive by the Chagas Sero K-SeT RDT, confirming the predominance of TcII/V/VI. IgG1 and IgG of Argentine patients showed significant decline in antibody titres post-chemotherapy, with either lysate (IgG, P = 0.0001, IgG1, P = 0.0001) or TcII/V/VI peptide antigen (IgG, P = 0.0001, IgG1, P = 0.0001). IgG1 decline was more discriminative than IgG. Antibody decline after treatment was also detected by the RDT. Incomplete treatment was associated with high IgG1 post-treatment titres against lysate (P = 0.013), as were IgG post-treatment titres to TcII/V/VI peptide (P = 0.0001). High pre-treatment IgG1 with lysate was associated with Qom ethnicity (P = 0.045). No associations were found between gender, age, body mass index and pre- or post-treatment antibody titres. CONCLUSIONS: We show that following chemotherapy of early chronic Chagas disease, significant decline in IgG1 antibody suggests cure, whereas sustained or increased IgG1 is a potential indicator of treatment failure. Due to restricted sensitivity, IgG1 should not be used as a diagnostic marker but has promise, with further development, as a biomarker of cure. We show that following chemotherapy of early chronic Chagas disease, a significant decline in IgG1 antibody suggests cure, whereas sustained or increased IgG1 is a potential indicator of treatment failure. Due to restricted sensitivity, IgG1 should not be used as a diagnostic marker but has promise, with further development, as a biomarker of cure.


Assuntos
Anticorpos Antiprotozoários/sangue , Doença de Chagas/tratamento farmacológico , Doença de Chagas/imunologia , Nifurtimox/uso terapêutico , Nitroimidazóis/uso terapêutico , Tripanossomicidas/uso terapêutico , Trypanosoma cruzi/imunologia , Adolescente , Anticorpos Antiprotozoários/imunologia , Doença de Chagas/sangue , Doença Crônica/tratamento farmacológico , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Humanos , Imunoglobulina G/sangue , Imunoglobulina G/imunologia , Testes Imunológicos , Masculino , Técnicas de Diagnóstico Molecular , Nifurtimox/efeitos adversos , Nitroimidazóis/efeitos adversos , Projetos Piloto , Fatores de Tempo , Tripanossomicidas/efeitos adversos , Trypanosoma cruzi/efeitos dos fármacos , Trypanosoma cruzi/genética
13.
Lancet Planet Health ; 5(10): e731-e738, 2021 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34627477

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Guyana reported a significant rise in malaria between 2008 and 2014. As there was no evidence of impairment of national malaria control strategies, public health authorities attributed the surge to a temporal increase in gold mining activity in forested regions. However, systematic analysis of this association is lacking because of the difficulties associated with collecting reliable data for both malaria and mining. We aimed to investigate the association between the international gold price and Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Guyana between 2007 and 2019. We also aimed to evaluate the association between P falciparum cases and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation pattern, which has previously been suggested as a major driver of malaria. METHODS: We used national malaria surveillance data from Guyana to estimate the correlation over time between the international gold price and reported P falciparum infections in individuals who were likely to be involved in mining activities (ie, men and boys aged between 15 and 50 years who were living in mining regions) for each month between 2007 and 2019. We compared the estimates with those obtained from individuals who were unlikely to be directly involved in mining activities (ie, women, children aged 12 years and younger, and adults aged over 70 years) and estimates obtained from individuals living in non-mining regions. We also evaluated the correlation between P falciparum infections and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation pattern in the same subpopulations and time period. Lastly, we evaluated the performance of a statistical model formulated to estimate P falciparum infections in real time using the international gold price as the predictor variable. FINDINGS: The proportion of P falciparum malaria cases in temporary residents, which was used as a proxy for circulating individuals involved in gold mining, was highest during the years of peak gold price (ie, between 2008 and 2014). Cases of malaria in all demographic groups showed a strong positive correlation with the gold price, but only in regions with mining camps (0·88 [95% CI 0·84-0·89] for boys and men aged between 15 and 50 years and 0·80 [0·73-0·85] for the aggregated population of women, children aged 12 years and younger, and adults older than 70 years). The highest correlation occurred earlier in men and boys aged between 15 and 50 years, the demographic most likely to be miners, suggesting that transmission in mining camps is followed by infections in the community. On the basis of these findings, we were able to reliably forecast P falciparum malaria trends using only the gold price as the predictor variable. A 1% increase in gold price was associated with a 2·13% increase in P falciparum infections after 1 month in the mining populations, and with a 1·63% increase after 2 months in the non-mining populations. Lastly, La Niña climatic events showed an additional, smaller positive correlation with malaria transmission. INTERPRETATION: Our analysis provides evidence that the P falciparum malaria surge observed in Guyana between 2008 and 2014 was likely to have been driven mainly by an increase in gold mining, while climate factors might have contributed synergistically. We propose that the international gold price over time is a useful indicator of malaria trends. We conclude that the feasibility of malaria elimination in Guyana, and in other areas in the Amazon where malaria and gold mining overlap, should be evaluated against the challenges posed by rapidly rising gold prices. FUNDING: Ramón Areces Foundation, National Institutes of Health, and National Institute of General Medical Sciences.


Assuntos
Ouro , Malária , Adolescente , Adulto , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Guiana/epidemiologia , Humanos , Lactente , Malária/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Mineração , Projetos de Pesquisa , Adulto Jovem
14.
JACC Case Rep ; 3(9): 1231-1235, 2021 Aug 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34401766

RESUMO

A 45-year-old man with stage IV melanoma presented with incessant nonsustained wide complex tachycardia. He was found to have a right ventricular intracardiac metastasis that created a nidus for ventricular tachycardia refractory to multiple therapeutic interventions. The patient underwent catheter ablation for this rare indication, with successful arrhythmia control by direct ablation over the tumor surface. (Level of Difficulty: Advanced.).

16.
Int J Cardiol Heart Vasc ; 34: 100808, 2021 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34141862

RESUMO

Misalignment of the internal circadian time with external physical time due to environmental factors or due to genetic variantion in circadian clock genes has been associated with increased incidence of cardiovascular risk factors. Common genetic variation in circadian genes in the United States have been identified predominantly in European ancestry individuals. We therefore examined the association between circadian clock single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in Clock, Cry1, Cry2, Bmal1 and Per3 genes and cardiovascular risk factors in African Americans and Hispanic/Latinos. We analyzed 17 candidate circadian SNPs in 1,166 subjects who self-identified as African-American or Hispanic/Latino and were enrolled in the UIC Cohort of Patients, Family and Friends. We found significant differences in the minor allele frequencies between African American and Hispanic/Latino subjects. Our analyses also established ethnic-specific SNPs that are associated with cardiovascular risk factors. In Hispanic/Latinos, the rs6850524 in Clock was associated with increased risk for hypertension, meanwhile rs12649507, rs4864546, and rs4864548 reduced the risk, also rs8192440 (Cry1) reduced the risk for type 2 diabetes. In African Americans, the Clock rs1801260 and rs6850524 were negatively associated with the presence of obesity; Bmal1 rs11022775 reduced the risk for dyslipidemia; and the Cry2 rs2292912 increased the risk for dyslipidemia and diabetes. Genetic variations in candidate circadian-clock genes are associated with risk factors for cardiovascular disease in African-Americans and Hispanic/Latinos. Our findings may help to improve cardiovascular risk assessment as well as better understand how circadian misalignment impacts cardiovascular risk in diverse populations.

17.
Sci Rep ; 11(1): 12978, 2021 06 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34155312

RESUMO

To unravel the relationship between earthquake and tsunami using ionospheric total electron content (TEC) changes, we analyzed two Chilean tsunamigenic subduction earthquakes: the 2014 Pisagua Mw 8.1 and the 2015 Illapel Mw 8.3. During the Pisagua earthquake, the TEC changes were detected at the GPS sites located to the north and south of the earthquake epicenter, whereas during the Illapel earthquake, we registered the changes only in the northward direction. Tide-gauge sites mimicked the propagation direction of tsunami waves similar to the TEC change pattern during both earthquakes. The TEC changes were represented by three signals. The initial weaker signal correlated well with Acoustic Rayleigh wave (AWRayleigh), while the following stronger perturbation was interpreted to be caused by Acoustic Gravity wave (AGWepi) and Internal Gravity wave (IGWtsuna) induced by earthquakes and subsequent tsunamis respectively. Inevitably, TEC changes can be utilized to evaluate earthquake occurrence and tsunami propagation within a framework of multi-parameter early warning systems.

18.
Res Sq ; 2021 Apr 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33880465

RESUMO

Residents of Long-Term Care Facilities (LTCFs) represent a major share of COVID-19 deaths worldwide. Information on vaccine effectiveness in these settings is essential to improve mitigation strategies, but evidence remains limited. To evaluate the early effect of the administration of BNT162b2 mRNA vaccines in LTCFs, we monitored subsequent SARS-CoV-2 documented infections and deaths in Catalonia, a region of Spain, and compared them to counterfactual model predictions from February 6th to March 28th, 2021, the subsequent time period after which 70% of residents were fully vaccinated. We calculated the reduction in SARS-CoV-2 documented infections and deaths as well as the detected county-level transmission. We estimated that once more than 70% of the LTCFs population were fully vaccinated, 74% (58%-81%, 90% CI) of COVID-19 deaths and 75% (36%-86%) of all documented infections were prevented. Further, detectable transmission was reduced up to 90% (76-93% 90%CI). Our findings provide evidence that high-coverage vaccination is the most effective intervention to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission and death. Widespread vaccination could be a feasible avenue to control the COVID-19 pandemic.

19.
medRxiv ; 2021 May 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33880479

RESUMO

Residents of Long-Term Care Facilities (LTCFs) represent a major share of COVID-19 deaths worldwide. Measuring the vaccine effectiveness among the most vulnerable in these settings is essential to monitor and improve mitigation strategies. We evaluated the early effect of the administration of BNT162b2 mRNA vaccines to individuals older than 64 years residing in LTCFs in Catalonia, a region of Spain. We monitored all the SARS-CoV-2 documented infections and deaths among LTCFs residents from February 6th to March 28th, 2021, the subsequent time period after which 70% of them were fully vaccinated. We developed a modeling framework based on the relation between community and LTFCs transmission during the pre-vaccination period (July -December 2020) and compared the true observations with the counterfactual model predictions. As a measure of vaccine effectiveness, we computed the total reduction in SARS-CoV-2 documented infections and deaths among residents of LTCFs over time, as well as the reduction on the detected transmission for all the LTCFs. We estimated that once more than 70% of the LTCFs population were fully vaccinated, 74% (58%-81%, 90% CI) of COVID-19 deaths and 75% (36%-86%, 90% CI) of all expected documented infections among LTCFs residents were prevented. Further, detectable transmission among LTCFs residents was reduced up to 90% (76-93%, 90%CI) relative to that expected given transmission in the community. Our findings provide evidence that high-coverage vaccination is the most effective intervention to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission and death among LTCFs residents. Conditional on key factors such as vaccine roll out, escape and coverage --across age groups--, widespread vaccination could be a feasible avenue to control the COVID-19 pandemic.

20.
Am J Respir Crit Care Med ; 204(1): 34-43, 2021 07 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33823118

RESUMO

Rationale: The role of and needs for extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) at a population level during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic have not been completely established. Objectives: To identify the cumulative incidence of ECMO use in the first pandemic wave and to describe the Nationwide Chilean cohort of ECMO-supported patients with COVID-19. Methods: We conducted a population-based study from March 3 to August 31, 2020, using linked data from national agencies. The cumulative incidence of ECMO use and mortality risk of ECMO-supported patients were calculated and age standardized. In addition, a retrospective cohort analysis was performed. Outcomes were 90-day mortality after ECMO initiation, ECMO-associated complications, and hospital length of stay. Cox regression models were used to explore risk factors for mortality in a time-to-event analysis. Measurements and Main Results: Ninety-four patients with COVID-19 were supported with ECMO (0.42 per population of 100,000, 14.89 per 100,000 positive cases, and 1.2% of intubated patients with COVID-19); 85 were included in the cohort analysis, and the median age was 48 (interquartile range [IQR], 41-55) years, 83.5% were men, and 42.4% had obesity. The median number of pre-ECMO intubation days was 4 (IQR, 2-7), the median PaO2/FiO2 ratio was 86.8 (IQR, 64-99) mm Hg, 91.8% of patients were prone positioned, and 14 patients had refractory respiratory acidosis. Main complications were infections (70.6%), bleeding (38.8%), and thromboembolism (22.4%); 52 patients were discharged home, and 33 died. The hospital length of stay was a median of 50 (IQR, 24-69) days. Lower respiratory system compliance and higher driving pressure before ECMO initiation were associated with increased mortality. A duration of pre-ECMO intubation ≥10 days was not associated with mortality. Conclusions: Documenting nationwide ECMO needs may help in planning ECMO provision for future COVID-19 pandemic waves. The 90-day mortality of the Chilean cohort of ECMO-supported patients with COVID-19 (38.8%) is comparable to that of previous reports.


Assuntos
COVID-19/terapia , Oxigenação por Membrana Extracorpórea/estatística & dados numéricos , Síndrome do Desconforto Respiratório/terapia , Adulto , Idoso , COVID-19/complicações , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Chile/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Avaliação das Necessidades , Síndrome do Desconforto Respiratório/diagnóstico , Síndrome do Desconforto Respiratório/epidemiologia , Síndrome do Desconforto Respiratório/virologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Resultado do Tratamento
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