Feasibility of perioperative volatile organic compound breath testing for prediction of paralytic ileus following laparoscopic colorectal resection.

BACKGROUND: Despite implementation of enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) and laparoscopic techniques, postoperative ileus (POI) remains frequent after colorectal surgery, impacting the patient, their recovery and health-care resources. Presently there are no tests that reliably predict or enable early POI diagnosis. Volatile organic compounds (VC) are products of human and microbiota cellular metabolism and we hypothesised that a detectable alteration occurs in POI. METHOD: This was a prospective observational study of patients undergoing laparoscopic colorectal resection within an established ERAS programme. Standardized end-expiratory breath sampling was performed on the morning of surgery and on the first three postoperative mornings. The concentrations of VCs commonly found in intestinal gas were analysed using selected ion flow tube mass spectrometry and GastroCH4 ECK®. Feasibility data, bowel preparation, postoperative oral intake, POI and 30-day morbidity were recorded. RESULTS: Of the 75 potentially eligible patients, 58 (77%) agreed to participate. Per-protocol breath sampling was successfully completed in 94%. There were no analytical failures. Baseline and postoperative concentrations of VCs were broadly comparable and were not altered by bowel preparation or postoperative oral intake. POI developed in 14 (29%) patients. Preoperative ammonia concentration was higher in patients who developed POI [830 parts per billion (ppb) vs 510 ppb, P = 0.027]. There was an increase in the concentration of acetic acid detected on day 2 in patients who developed POI (99 ppb vs 171 ppb, P = 0.021). CONCLUSION: Repeated VC breath sampling and analysis is feasible in the perioperative setting. An elevated ammonia concentration on the morning of surgery may be a potential predictor of POI.

Artificial Neural Network Individualised Prediction of Time to Colorectal Cancer Surgery.

AIM: Colorectal cancer pathway targets mandate prompt treatment although practicalities may mean patients wait for surgery. This variable period could be utilised for patient optimisation; however, there is currently no reliable predictive system for time to surgery. If individualised surgical waits were prospectively known, tailored prehabilitation could be introduced. METHODS: A dedicated, prospectively populated elective laparoscopic surgery for colorectal cancer with a curative intent database was utilised. Primary endpoint was the prediction of the individualised waiting time for surgery. A multilayered perceptron artificial neural network (ANN) model was trained and tested alongside uni- and multivariate analyses. RESULTS: 668 consecutive patients were included. 8.5% underwent neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. The mean time from diagnosis to surgery was 53 days (95% CI 48.3-57.8). ANN correctly identified those having surgery in <8 (97.7% and 98.8%) and <12 weeks (97.1% and 98.8%) of the training and testing cohorts with area under the receiver operating curves of 0.793 and 0.865, respectively. After neoadjuvant treatment, an ASA physical status score was the most important potentially modifiable risk factor for prolonged waits (normalised importance 64%, OR 4.9, 95% CI 1.5-16). The ANN findings were accurately cross-validated with a logistic regression model. CONCLUSION: Artificial neural networks using demographic and diagnostic data successfully predict individual time to colorectal cancer surgery. This could assist the personalisation of preoperative care including the incorporation of prehabilitation interventions.

Time from colorectal cancer diagnosis to laparoscopic curative surgery-is there a safe window for prehabilitation?

BACKGROUND: There is a growing interest in the adoption of formal prehabilitation programmes prior to elective surgery but regulatory targets mandate prompt treatment following cancer diagnosis. We aimed to investigate if time from diagnosis to surgery is linked to short- and long-term outcomes. METHODS: An exploratory analysis was performed utilising a dedicated, prospectively populated database. Inclusion criteria were biopsy-proven colorectal adenocarcinoma undergoing elective laparoscopic surgery with curative intent. Demographics, date of diagnosis and surgery was captured with patients dichotomised using 4-, 8- and 12-week time points. All patients were followed in a standardised pathway for 5 years. Overall survival was assessed with the Kaplan-Meier log-rank method. RESULTS: Six hundred sixty-eight consecutive patients met inclusion criteria. Mean time from diagnosis to surgery was 53 days (95% CI 48.3-57.8). Identified risk factors for longer time to surgery were males (OR 1.92 [1.2-3.1], p = 0.008), age ≤ 65 (OR 1.9 [1.2-3], p = 0.01), higher ASA scores (p = 0.01) stoma formation (OR 6.9 [4.1-11], p < 0.001) and neoadjuvant treatment (OR 5.06 [3.1-8.3], p < 0.001). There was no association between time to surgery and BMI (p = 0.36), conversion (16.3%, p = 0.5), length of stay (p = 0.33) and readmission or reoperation (p = 0.3). No differences in five-year survival were seen in those operated within 4, 8 and 12 weeks (p = 0.397, p = 0.962 and p = 0.611, respectively). Multivariate analysis showed time from diagnosis to surgery was not associated with five-year overall survival (HR 0.99, p = 0.52). CONCLUSION: Time from colorectal cancer diagnosis to curative laparoscopic surgery did not impact on overall survival. This finding may allow preoperative pathway alteration without compromising safety.

Can the combination of laparoscopy and enhanced recovery improve long-term survival after elective colorectal cancer surgery?

AIM: Enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) programmes and laparoscopic techniques both provide short-term benefits to patients undergoing colorectal cancer surgery. ERAS protocol compliance may improve long-term survival in those undergoing open colorectal resection but as laparoscopic data has not been reported. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the impact of the combination of laparoscopy and ERAS management on 5-year overall survival. METHODS: A dedicated prospectively populated colorectal cancer surgery database was reviewed. Patient inclusion criteria were biopsy-proven colorectal adenocarcinoma, undergoing elective surgery undertaken with curative intent. All patients were managed within an established ERAS programme and routinely followed up for 5 years. Overall survival was measured using the log-rank Kaplan-Meier method at 5 years. RESULTS: Eight hundred fifty-four patients met the inclusion criteria. Four hundred eighty-one (56%) cases were laparoscopic with 98 patients (20%) requiring conversion. There were no differences in patient or tumour demographics between the surgical groups. Median ERAS protocol compliance was 93% (range 53-100%). Five-year overall survival was superior in laparoscopic cases compared with that of converted and open surgery (78 vs 68 vs 70%, respectively, p < 0.007). An open approach (HR 1.55, 95%CI 1.16-2.06, p = 0.002) and delayed hospital discharge (> 7 days, HR 1.5, 95%CI 1.13-1.9, p = 0.003) were the only modifiable risk factors associated with poor survival. CONCLUSIONS: The use of a laparoscopic approach with enhanced recovery after surgery management appears to have long-term survival benefits following colorectal cancer resection.

Does hospital readmission following colorectal cancer resection and enhanced recovery after surgery affect long term survival?

AIM: Hospital readmission is undesirable for patients and care providers as this can affect short-term recovery and carries financial consequences. It is unknown if readmission has long-term implications. We aimed to investigate the impact of 30-day readmission on long-term overall survival (OS) following colorectal cancer resection within enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) care and explore the reasons for and the severity and details of readmission episodes. METHOD: A dedicated, prospectively populated database was reviewed. All patients were managed within an established ERAS programme. Five-year OS was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The number, reason for and severity of 30-day readmissions were classified according to the Clavien-Dindo (CD) system, along with total (initial and readmission) length of stay (LoS). Multivariate analysis was used to identify factors predicting readmission. RESULTS: A total of 1023 consecutive patients underwent colorectal cancer resection between 2002 and 2015. Of these, 166 (16%) were readmitted. Readmission alone did not have a significant impact on 5-year OS (59% vs 70%, P = 0.092), but OS was worse in patients with longer total LoS (20 vs 14 days, P = 0.04). Of the readmissions, 121 (73%) were minor (CD I-II) and 27 (16%) required an intervention of which 16 (10%) were returned to theatre. Gut dysfunction 32 (19%) and wound complications 23 (14%) were the most frequent reasons for readmission. Prolonged initial LoS, rectal cancer and younger age predicted for hospital readmission. CONCLUSION: Readmission does not have a significant impact on 5-year OS. A broad range of conditions led to readmission, with the majority representing minor complications.

Is Month of Birth a Risk Factor for Colorectal Cancer?

Introduction. The developmental origins of health and disease hypothesis and season of birth have been linked to a wide variety of later life conditions including cancer. Whether any relationship between month and season of birth and colorectal cancer exists is unknown. Methods. A case-control study was performed with month of birth extracted from a dedicated colorectal cancer database. Age and gender matched patients were used as a control group. Generalised linear models were fitted with Poisson and negative binomial responses and logarithmic links. A forward stepwise approach was followed adding seasonal components with 6- and 12-month periods. Results. 1019 colorectal cancer patients and 1277 randomly selected age and gender matched controls were included. For both men and women there is an excess of colorectal cancer in those born in autumn and a corresponding reduction of risk among those born in spring (p = 0.026). For the identified September peak, the excess risk for colorectal cancer was 14.8% (95% CI 5.6-32.3%) larger than the spring trough. Conclusion. There is a seasonal effect in the monthly birth rates of people who are operated for colorectal cancer with a disproportionate excess of cancer in those born in September. Further large studies are required to validate these findings.

The use of artificial neural networks to predict delayed discharge and readmission in enhanced recovery following laparoscopic colorectal cancer surgery.

BACKGROUND: Artificial neural networks (ANNs) can be used to develop predictive tools to enable the clinical decision-making process. This study aimed to investigate the use of an ANN in predicting the outcomes from enhanced recovery after colorectal cancer surgery. METHODS: Data were obtained from consecutive colorectal cancer patients undergoing laparoscopic surgery within the enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) program between 2002 and 2009 in a single center. The primary outcomes assessed were delayed discharge and readmission within a 30-day period. The data were analyzed using a multilayered perceptron neural network (MLPNN), and a prediction tools were created for each outcome. The results were compared with a conventional statistical method using logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 275 cancer patients were included in the study. The median length of stay was 6 days (range 2-49 days) with 67 patients (24.4 %) staying longer than 7 days. Thirty-four patients (12.5 %) were readmitted within 30 days. Important factors predicting delayed discharge were related to failure in compliance with ERAS, particularly with the postoperative elements in the first 48 h. The MLPNN for delayed discharge had an area under a receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.817, compared with an AUROC of 0.807 for the predictive tool developed from logistic regression analysis. Factors predicting 30-day readmission included overall compliance with the ERAS pathway and receiving neoadjuvant treatment for rectal cancer. The MLPNN for readmission had an AUROC of 0.68. CONCLUSIONS: These results may plausibly suggest that ANN can be used to develop reliable outcome predictive tools in multifactorial intervention such as ERAS. Compliance with ERAS can reliably predict both delayed discharge and 30-day readmission following laparoscopic colorectal cancer surgery.

Factors predicting 30-day readmission after laparoscopic colorectal cancer surgery within an enhanced recovery programme.

AIM: Hospital readmission within 30 days of surgery has become a marker of poor quality patient care. This study aimed to investigate factors predictive of 30-day readmission after laparoscopic colorectal cancer surgery within an enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) programme. METHOD: Consecutive patients undergoing laparoscopic surgery for colorectal cancer within an ERAS programme between 2002 and 2009 were included. Data were collected relating to patient demographics, neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, ERAS compliance, and operative and postoperative outcomes. A logistic regression model was used to identify factors associated with readmissions after adjusting for the potential effect of covariables simultaneously. RESULTS: In all, 268 cancer patients underwent laparoscopic colorectal surgery (108 rectal resections), of whom 34 (12.7%) were readmitted due most commonly to bowel obstruction (29%) and surgical site infection (18%). The use of neoadjuvant therapy (odds ratio 4.49, 95% CI 1.41-14.35; P = 0.011) and ERAS compliance above 93% (odds ratio 0.38, 95% CI 0.18-0.84; P = 0.016) were independent predictors of readmission. CONCLUSION: Poor ERAS compliance and preoperative chemoradiotherapy were significant predictors of readmission following laparoscopic colorectal cancer surgery. Further research is required to expand the scope of ERAS beyond hospital discharge.

Their last words: a review of suicide notes in the elderly.

Suicide notes are considered as markers of the severity of a suicide attempt and are said to provide valuable insight into the thinking of suicide victims before the fatal act. However, very few studies have described elderly suicide note-writers and their final thoughts. In this retrospective review of suicide notes obtained from coroners' records in North Cheshire over a period of 13 years from 1989-2001 we examined the content of suicide notes and their clinical significance. Suicide note-writers may not be typical of the average suicide and information elicited from the study of suicide notes may only apply to note-writers and not to suicide in general. However, the absence of a suicide note must not be considered an indicator of a less serious attempt. Future studies of suicide notes need to provide insight into the unique nature of these documents and to allow better understanding of the suicidal mind.

The significance of suicide notes in the elderly.

Suicide notes are traditionally considered as markers of the severity of the suicide attempt and are said to provide valuable insight into the thinking of suicide victims before the fatal act. Few studies have described the characteristics of elderly suicide note-writers and their final thoughts. This study is a retrospective view of suicide notes obtained from coroners' records of all elderly suicides in Cheshire over a period of 10 years, 1989-1998. Out of 125 suicides, 54 (43%) had suicide notes, which were reported in the coroner's records. Of these there were 31 (57%) male and 23 (43%) female subjects. Elderly suicide note-leavers were more likely to be unknown to psychiatric services (p < 0.01) and to have used a non-violent method of suicide (p < 0.01). Sex, marital status, social isolation, mental or physical morbidity did not appear to be linked with leaving a suicide note. More cases that took an overdose, used plastic bags, electrocuted themselves, or used car exhaust also left suicide notes. Those who died by more violent means such as hanging, drowning, jumping from height, immolation or wounding appeared less likely to have left a suicide note. No statistically significant difference in the content of the suicide notes was observed in relation to sex or age. Many elderly are isolated and may have no one to write a note to, while others have lost the ability to express themselves. Therefore, it is not possible to say that the different incidence of note leaving observed for suicide was due to differing levels of suicidal intent. Although only a proportion of elderly suicide victims leave suicide notes, the absence of a suicide note must not be considered an indicator of a less serious attempt.

Analgesics in the elderly.

The aim of the study is to investigate whether elderly patients on long-term weak opioid analgesics could suffer the problems of tolerance and dependence. The prevalence of potential dependence amongst long-term users was assessed by a semi-structured questionnaire applying the Diagnostic Criteria for Research (DCR-10) criteria for Dependence Syndrome. The sample consisted of 25 randomly selected elderly patients drawn from four practices in North Cheshire, who had been on continuous repeat prescription of low potency opioid and compound analgesics containing them for a minimum of one year without apparent problem to themselves or their GPs. Approximately 2.8% of the elderly GP practice population were shown to be on opioid analgesics continuously for at a least one year. The study found that an estimated 40% of patients on low potency opioids fulfilled the DCR-10 criteria for Dependence Syndrome. It could be argued however that the finding may be, at least partly, the result of an undetermined specificity of DCR-10 as a screening tool. The finding, in such a small sample, is interesting but requires critical examination, as we believe it to be the first study of the possible effect of long-term use of opioid analgesics in primary care. The unexpectedly high prevalence highlights the need for further research in this area.

Passive euthanasia in dementia: killing ... or letting die?

A sample of carers was asked to complete a self-administered questionnaire designed to collect information about carers' characteristics and obtain their views on passive euthanasia. Each carer was given an information sheet about the study, which included a detailed and clear account for the different types of euthanasia. The study showed a strong support for passive euthanasia from the non-professional carers of dementia patients. The strongest support was for the idea of a 'Living Will'. Having previous experience in looking after other people with dementia would appear to influence carers' perception of passive euthanasia. The subject of passive euthanasia and its ramifications for sufferers, carers and professionals warrants further exploration.

Elderly suicide and attempted suicide: one syndrome.

In this study we explore whether elderly suicide victims who had a previous history of attempted suicide differ from those with no similar history. A group of the elderly, who ended their lives with fatal self-harm (FSH) and had a history of deliberate self-harm (DSH) was compared to a matching group of the elderly who also ended their lives with FSH, but who were not known to have had any history of DSH. The comparison was in respect of epidemiological, social, psychological characteristics, service input and methods of suicide. The elderly, with a history of DSH, were more likely to have been known to the mental health services than the elderly who did not have such a history (P<.05). The two groups used similar methods in their final FSH act. The elderly victims of FSH with or without a previous history of DSH share the same characteristics. The two groups appear to be part of one syndrome. Deliberate self-harm in the elderly should be taken seriously as an unsuccessful suicide rather than a manipulative act or a cry for help and attention.