Effects of daily thermal fluctuations on the Atlantic silverside, a fish with temperature-dependent sex determination.

Temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) occurs when the temperature during development affects gonad determination. Historically, most work on TSD in fishes was conducted under constant temperatures, yet daily fluctuating temperatures can significantly alter fish physiology and life history. Thus, we subjected the Atlantic silverside, Menidia menidia (a TSD species), to 28, 28 ± 2 and 28 ± 4°C (a high, masculinizing temperature) and quantified sex ratios and length. We found that the percentage of females increased by 60%-70% when the fish were exposed to daily fluctuating temperatures (from 10% to 16% and 17% under fluctuations).

Thermal physiology integrated species distribution model predicts profound habitat fragmentation for estuarine fish with ocean warming.

Species distribution models predict a poleward migration for marine ectotherms with ocean warming. However, a key limitation in current species distribution models (SDM) is that they do not account for population-specific heterogeneity in physiological responses to temperature change resulting from local adaptations and acclimatization. To address this gap, we developed a novel, Physiology Integrated BioClimate Model (PIBCM) that combines habitat-specific metabolic thermal physiological tolerance of a species into a bioclimate envelope model. Using a downscaling approach, we also established a fine-resolution coastal sea-surface temperature data set for 2050-2080, that showed a high degree of location-specific variability in future thermal regimes. Combining predicted temperature data with the PIBCM model, we estimated habitat distribution for a highly eurythermal intertidal minnow, the Atlantic killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus), a species that likely presents a best-case-scenario for coastal vertebrates. We show that the killifish northern boundary shifts southwards, while distinct habitat fragmentation occurs in the southern sub-population (due to migration of adjacent fish populations to the nearest metabolically optimal thermal habitat). When compared to current SDMs (e.g., AquaMaps), our results emphasize the need for thermal physiology integrated range shift models and indicate that habitat fragmentation for coastal fishes may reshape nursery habitats for many commercially and ecologically important species.

A latitudinal gradient in thermal transgenerational plasticity and a test of theory.

Transgenerational plasticity (TGP) occurs when phenotypes are shaped by the environment in both the current and preceding generations. Transgenerational responses to rainfall, CO2 and temperature suggest that TGP may play an important role in how species cope with climate change. However, little is known about how TGP will evolve as climate change continues. Here, we provide a quantitative test of the hypothesis that the predictability of the environment influences the magnitude of the transgenerational response. To do so, we take advantage of the latitudinal decrease in the predictability of temperatures in near shore waters along the US East Coast. Using sheepshead minnows (Cyprinodon variegatus) from South Carolina, Maryland, and Connecticut, we found the first evidence for a latitudinal gradient in thermal TGP. Moreover, the degree of TGP in these populations depends linearly on the decorrelation time for temperature, providing support for the hypothesis that thermal predictability drives the evolution of these traits.

Short communication: Domesticated and wild fathead minnows differ in growth and thermal tolerance.

Many populations have evolved in response to laboratory environments (lack of predators, continual food availability, etc.). Another potential agent of selection in the lab is exposure to constant thermal environments. Here, we examined changes in growth, critical thermal maximum (CTmax), and food consumption under constant (25 °C) and fluctuating (22-28 °C and 19-31 °C) conditions in two populations of fathead minnows, Pimephales promelas: one that has been kept in a laboratory setting for over 120 generations (~40 years) and a corresponding wild one. We found that under thermal fluctuations, domesticated fathead minnows grew faster than their wild counterparts, but also exhibited lower thermal tolerance. Food consumption was significantly higher in the lab population under the constant and large fluctuation thermal treatments. Our results suggest that the lab population has adjusted to the stable conditions in the laboratory and that we should carefully apply lessons learned in the lab to wild populations.

Thermal transgenerational effects remain after two generations.

Transgenerational plasticity (TGP) is increasingly recognized as a mechanism by which organisms can respond to environments that change across generations. Although recent empirical and theoretical studies have explored conditions under which TGP is predicted to evolve, it is still unclear whether the effects of the parental environment will remain beyond the offspring generation. Using a small cyprinodontid fish, we explored multigenerational thermal TGP to address two related questions. First (experiment 1), does the strength of TGP decline or accumulate across multiple generations? Second (experiment 2), how does the experience of a temperature novel to both parents and offspring affect the strength of TGP? In the first experiment, we found a significant interaction between F1 and F2 temperatures and juvenile growth, but no effect of egg diameter. The strength of TGP between F0 and F1 generations was similar in both experiments but declined in subsequent generations. Further, experience of a novel temperature accelerated the decline. This pattern, although similar to that found in other species, is certainly not universally observed, suggesting that theoretical and empirical effort is needed to understand the multigenerational dynamics of TGP.

Trait variation in extreme thermal environments under constant and fluctuating temperatures.

Climate change is increasingly exposing populations to rare and novel environmental conditions. Theory suggests that extreme conditions will expose cryptic phenotypes, with a concomitant increase in trait variation. Although some empirical support for this exists, it is also well established that physiological mechanisms (e.g. heat shock protein expression) change when organisms are exposed to constant versus fluctuating temperatures. To determine the effect of common, rare and novel temperatures on the release of hidden variation, we exposed fathead minnows, Pimephales promelas, to five fluctuating and four constant temperature regimes (constant treatments: 23.5, 25, 28.5 and 31°C; all fluctuating treatments shared a minimum temperature of 22°C at 00.00 and a maximum of 25, 28, 31, 34 or 37°C at 12.00). We measured each individual's length weekly over 60 days, critical thermal maximum (CTmax), five morphometric traits (eye anterior-posterior distance, pelvic fin length, pectoral fin length, pelvic fin ray count and pectoral fin ray count) and fluctuating asymmetry (FA, absolute difference between left and right morphometric measurements; FA is typically associated with stress). Length-at-age in both constant and fluctuating conditions decreased with temperature, and this trait's variance decreased with temperature under fluctuating conditions but increased and then decreased in constant temperatures. CTmax in both treatments increased with increasing water temperature, while its variance decreased in warmer waters. No consistent pattern in mean or variance was found across morphometric traits or FA. Our results suggest that, for fathead minnows, variance can decrease in important traits (e.g. length-at-age and CTmax) as the environment becomes more stressful, so it may be difficult to establish comprehensive rules for the effects of rarer or stressful environments on trait variation. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of plasticity in phenotypic adaptation to rapid environmental change'.

Transgenerational plasticity and climate change experiments: Where do we go from here?

Phenotypic plasticity, both within and across generations, is an important mechanism that organisms use to cope with rapid climate change. While an increasing number of studies show that plasticity across generations (transgenerational plasticity or TGP) may occur, we have limited understanding of key aspects of TGP, such as the environmental conditions that may promote it, its relationship to within-generation plasticity (WGP) and its role in evolutionary potential. In this review, we consider how the detection of TGP in climate change experiments is affected by the predictability of environmental variation, as well as the timing and magnitude of environmental change cues applied. We also discuss the need to design experiments that are able to distinguish TGP from selection and TGP from WGP in multigenerational experiments. We conclude by suggesting future research directions that build on the knowledge to date and admit the limitations that exist, which will depend on the way environmental change is simulated and the type of experimental design used. Such an approach will open up this burgeoning area of research to a wider variety of organisms and allow better predictive capacity of the role of TGP in the response of organisms to future climate change.

Where should I send it? Optimizing the submission decision process.

How do scientists decide where to submit manuscripts? Many factors influence this decision, including prestige, acceptance probability, turnaround time, target audience, fit, and impact factor. Here, we present a framework for evaluating where to submit a manuscript based on the theory of Markov decision processes. We derive two models, one in which an author is trying to optimally maximize citations and another in which that goal is balanced by either minimizing the number of resubmissions or the total time in review. We parameterize the models with data on acceptance probability, submission-to-decision times, and impact factors for 61 ecology journals. We find that submission sequences beginning with Ecology Letters, Ecological Monographs, or PLOS ONE could be optimal depending on the importance given to time to acceptance or number of resubmissions. This analysis provides some guidance on where to submit a manuscript given the individual-specific values assigned to these disparate objectives.

The response of correlated traits following cessation of fishery-induced selection.

The application of evolutionary principles to the management of fisheries has gained considerable attention recently. Harvesting of fish may apply directional or disruptive selection to key life-history traits, and evidence for fishery-induced evolution is growing. The traits that are directly selected upon are often correlated (genetically or phenotypically) with a suite of interrelated physiological, behavioral, and morphological characters. A question that has received comparatively little attention is whether or not, after cessation of fishery-induced selection, these correlated traits revert back to previous states. Here, we empirically examine this question. In experiments with the Atlantic silverside, Menidia menidia, we applied size-selective culling for five generations and then maintained the lines a further five generations under random harvesting. We found that some traits do return to preharvesting levels (e.g., larval viability), some partially recover (e.g., egg volume, size-at-hatch), and others show no sign of change (e.g., food consumption rate, vertebral number). Such correlations among characters could, in theory, greatly accelerate or decelerate the recovery of fish populations. These results may explain why some fish stocks fail to recover after fishing pressure is relaxed.

Thermal legacies: transgenerational effects of temperature on growth in a vertebrate.

Transgenerational plasticity (TGP), a generalisation of more widely studied maternal effects, occurs whenever environmental cues experienced by either parent prior to fertilisation results in a modification of offspring reaction norms. Such effects have been observed in many traits across many species. Despite enormous potential importance-particularly in an era of rapid climate change-TGP in thermal growth physiology has never been demonstrated for vertebrates. We provide the first evidence for thermal TGP in a vertebrate: given sufficient time, sheepshead minnows adaptively program their offspring for maximal growth at the present temperature. The change in growth over a single generation (c. 30%) exceeds the single-generation rate of adaptive evolution by an order of magnitude. If widespread, transgenerational effects on thermal performance may have important implications on physiology, ecology and contemporary evolution, and may significantly alter the extinction risk posed by changing climate.

Latitudinal variation in lifespan within species is explained by the metabolic theory of ecology.

Many ectotherms exhibit striking latitudinal gradients in lifespan. However, it is unclear whether lifespan gradients in distantly related taxa share a common mechanistic explanation. We compiled data on geographic variation in lifespan in ectotherms from around the globe to determine how much of this intraspecific variation in lifespan may be explained by temperature using the simple predictions of the metabolic theory of ecology. We found that the metabolic theory accurately predicts how lifespan varies with temperature within species in a wide range of ectotherms in both controlled laboratory experiments and free-living populations. After removing the effect of temperature, only a small fraction of species showed significant trends with latitude. There was, however, considerable residual intraspecific variation indicating that other, more local factors are likely to be important in determining lifespan within species. These findings suggest that, given predicted increases in global temperature, lifespan of ectotherms may be substantially shortened in the future.