Lack of decline in hepatitis C virus incidence among HIV-positive men who have sex with men during 1990-2014.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) incidence among HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM) has increased since 2000, although there are regional differences. We aimed to 1) estimate trends in HCV incidence among HIV-positive MSM, 2) assess the association between incidence and geographical region, age and HIV-related measurements and, 3) assess temporal changes from HIV seroconversion to HCV infection. METHODS: Data was used from MSM with well-estimated dates of HIV seroconversion from the CASCADE Collaboration (1990-2014). Smoothly varying trends in HCV incidence over time were allowed, using restricted cubic splines. The association of calendar year, age, CD4 count (lagged), HIV RNA (lagged), geographical region and HIV infection stage (recent vs. chronic) with HCV incidence were assessed using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Of 5,941 MSM, 337 acquired HCV during follow-up. HCV incidence significantly increased from 0.7/1,000 person-years in 1990 to 18/1,000 person-years in 2014. Recent calendar years, younger age, recent HIV infection and higher HIV RNA levels were significantly associated with HCV incidence, while CD4 count was not. Trends differed by geographical region; while incidence appeared to have stabilized in Western Europe and remained stable in Southern Europe, it continued to increase in Northern Europe in recent years. Time from HIV to HCV infection significantly decreased over time (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: HCV has continued to spread among HIV-positive MSM in recent years, but trends differ by geographical region. Interventions to decrease the risk of HCV acquisition and increase early diagnosis are warranted. LAY SUMMARY: Hepatitis C virus infection continues to spread among HIV-positive men who have sex with men, especially among younger individuals. However, trends seem to differ by European region in recent years. Furthermore, men who have sex with men with a higher HIV RNA load were more likely to get infected with the hepatitis C virus. During recent HIV infection, MSM appear to be at higher risk of acquiring hepatitis C.

Evaluation of rapid progressors in HIV infection as an extreme phenotype.

DESIGN: Rapid CD4 cell loss represents an HIV phenotype used to identify causal variants of accelerated disease progression. The optimal rate and threshold for identifying this extreme phenotype in recently infected individuals is unclear. METHODS: Using a cohort of patients with known dates of HIV-1 seroconversion (SC), CASCADE (Concerted Action on SeroConversion on AIDS and Death in Europe), we identified proportions experiencing nadir CD4 cell levels within 1 year of SC, and assessed their mean AIDS-free survival time at 10-year follow-up and hazard of AIDS/death, compared with those whose CD4 remained >500 cells per cubic millimeter. Follow-up was censored at December 31, 1996 to avoid bias due to combination antiretroviral therapy initiation. RESULTS: Of 4876 individuals, 2.8%, 7.3%, and 24.9% experienced ≥1 CD4 <100, 200, and 350 cells per cubic millimeter, respectively, within 1 year of SC. Minimum CD4 levels of 30, 166, 231, and 506 cells per cubic millimeter were experienced during this period by 1%, 5%, 10%, and 50% of individuals, respectively. Mean (95% confidence interval) AIDS-free survival at 10 years follow-up was 2.9 (2.3 to 3.6), 5.5 (5.0 to 6.1), 6.7 (6.5 to 7.0), 7.4 (7.2 to 7.6), and 8.1 (7.9 to 8.3), for those with minimum counts ≤100, 100-200, 200-350, 350-500, >500 cells per cubic millimeter, respectively. Using counts of >500 cells per cubic millimeter as reference, the hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of AIDS/death were 15.0 (11.9 to 18.9), 3.6 (2.9 to 4.5), 2.1 (1.8 to 2.4), and 1.5 (1.3 to 1.7), respectively. The hazard ratio increased to 37.5 (26.5 to 53.1) when a minimum CD4 count <100 was confirmed within 1 year of SC. CONCLUSION: At least 1 CD4 ≤100 cells per cubic millimeter within the first year of SC identifies a rare group of individuals at high risk of disease progression and could form the basis for defining the rapid progressor phenotype.

Natural history of HIV-control since seroconversion.

OBJECTIVES: HIV-controllers spontaneously maintain HIV viremia at an undetectable level. We aimed to describe the delay to control from seroconversion, the duration of control, and risk factors for losing control. METHODS: HIV-controllers were identified from a pooled dataset of 24 seroconverter cohorts from Europe, Australia, and Canada (CASCADE). HIV-controllers had at least five consecutive viral loads less than 400/500 copies/ml, while antiretroviral therapy naive, for at least 5 years after seroconversion. End of control was defined as two consecutive viral loads above 2000 copies/ml. Duration of control was described using Kaplan-Meier estimates; factors associated with duration of control were identified using a Cox model. CD4⁺ cell count evolution during control was described using a mixed model. RESULTS: Of 9896 eligible seroconverters, we identified 140 (1.4%) HIV-controllers, the largest database of HIV-controllers followed from seroconversion. For 64 with viral load measured within 24 months from seroconversion, median delay to control was 16.7 (interquartile range: 7.8-37.9) months. Probability of maintaining control 20 years after seroconversion was 0.74 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.64-0.85]. Occurrence of blips followed by return to undetectability did not increase the risk of loss of control [hazard ratio: 0.81 (95% CI: 0.10-6.70)]. However, CD4⁺ cell loss during control was significantly accelerated in individuals with blips. CONCLUSION: In most individuals, control occurred rapidly after seroconversion; however, more than 3 years were required to achieve control in 25% of HIV-controllers. Control may be sustained even when CD4⁺ cell levels are below 500 cells/µl, opening important new perspectives to understand the physiopathology underlying control.

Immunovirologic control 24 months after interruption of antiretroviral therapy initiated close to HIV seroconversion.

BACKGROUND: There is interest in whether a short course of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) at the time of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seroconversion could induce long-term immunologic control after its interruption. We aimed to determine the time of virologic rebound after interruption of treatment initiated close to HIV seroconversion and to identify potential cases of posttreatment controllers (PTCs) in the CASCADE (Concerted Action on Seroconversion to AIDS and Death in Europe) Collaboration. METHODS: Prospective cohort study nested within the CASCADE database of routinely collected data about patients with HIV with well-estimated date of HIV seroconversion from Europe, Canada, and Australia in the post-cART era. Participants were individuals who interrupted successful cART initiated within 3 months of HIV seroconversion. The main outcome was loss of PTC status, defined as the earlier date of virologic rebound (first of 2 consecutive measurements showing HIV RNA levels >50 copies/mL) or reinitiation of any ART after cART interruption. RESULTS: Median time to loss of PTC status in 259 eligible individuals was 1.7 months. Eleven patients did not experience virologic rebound by 24 months after treatment interruption. CONCLUSION: Most patients experience virologic rebound soon after cART interruption; however, although PTCs are rare, the results of this study confirm their existence.

The hepatitis C epidemic among HIV-positive MSM: incidence estimates from 1990 to 2007.

BACKGROUND: Outbreaks of acute hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among HIV-infected MSM have been described since 2000. However, phylogenetic analysis suggests that the spread of HCV started around 1996. We estimated the incidence of HCV in HIV-infected MSM with well estimated dates of HIV seroconversion from 1990 to 2007. METHODS: Data from 12 cohorts within the Concerted Action on SeroConversion to AIDS and Death in Europe (CASCADE) Collaboration were used. HCV incidence was estimated using standard incidence methods and methods for interval-censored data. We accounted for the fact that routine HCV data collection in each cohort started in different calendar years. RESULTS: Of 4724 MSM, 3014 had an HCV test result and were included. Of these, 124 (4%) had only positive HCV test results, 2798 (93%) had only negative results and 92 (3%) had both. In 1990, HCV incidence ranged from 0.9 to 2.2 per 1000 person-years, depending on the analysis strategy used. HCV incidence increased up to 1995 when it was estimated to range between 5.5 and 8.1 per 1000 person-years. From 2002 onwards, it increased substantially to values between 16.8 and 30.0 per 1000 person-years in 2005 and between 23.4 and 51.1 per 1000 person-years in 2007. CONCLUSION: Our data support phylodynamic findings that HCV incidence had already increased among HIV-infected MSM from the mid-1990s. However, the main expansion of the HCV epidemic started after 2002. Incidence estimates obtained from cohort studies may help identify changes in the spread of important infections earlier and should guide routine testing policies to minimize further disease burden.

Overestimation of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 load caused by the presence of cells in plasma from plasma preparation tubes.

The human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) load is an important marker of disease progression and treatment efficacy in patients with HIV-1 infection. In recent years, an increase in the number of samples with detectable HIV-1 RNA has been reported among patients with previously suppressed viral loads, affecting clinical patient care and leading to repeat measurements of viral load and drug resistance. This rise seems to have coincided with the increased use of plasma preparation tubes (PPTs) for sample collection, and we have aimed to explain why PPTs might yield elevated HIV-1 RNA levels. The impacts of different sample-processing procedures on HIV-1 RNA levels were compared retrospectively. Prospectively, the presence of different cells and cell-associated HIV-1 nucleic acids in paired plasma samples from PPTs centrifuged before (PPT1) and after (PPT2) transportation to the laboratory was compared. A retrospective analysis of 4,049 patient samples with <1,000 HIV-1 RNA copies/ml showed elevated HIV-1 RNA levels in plasma from PPT1 compared with the levels from PPT2 and standard EDTA-containing tubes. Prospective data revealed cell-associated HIV-1 nucleic acids and abundant blood cells in plasma from PPT1 but not from the corresponding PPT2. The levels of HIV-1 RNA correlated with the lymphocyte counts in plasma in PPT1. Cells could be removed by the recentrifugation of PPT1 before analysis. In conclusion, the transportation of PPTs after centrifugation may render cells in the plasma fraction containing cell-associated HIV-1 nucleic acids that contribute significantly to the HIV-1 RNA copy numbers in patients with low viral loads.

Changes in the risk of death after HIV seroconversion compared with mortality in the general population.

CONTEXT: Mortality among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals has decreased dramatically in countries with good access to treatment and may now be close to mortality in the general uninfected population. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate changes in the mortality gap between HIV-infected individuals and the general uninfected population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND POPULATION: Mortality following HIV seroconversion in a large multinational collaboration of HIV seroconverter cohorts (CASCADE) was compared with expected mortality, calculated by applying general population death rates matched on demographic factors. A Poisson-based model adjusted for duration of infection was constructed to assess changes over calendar time in the excess mortality among HIV-infected individuals. Data pooled in September 2007 were analyzed in March 2008, covering years at risk 1981-2006. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Excess mortality among HIV-infected individuals compared with that of the general uninfected population. RESULTS: Of 16,534 individuals with median duration of follow-up of 6.3 years (range, 1 day to 23.8 years), 2571 died, compared with 235 deaths expected in an equivalent general population cohort. The excess mortality rate (per 1000 person-years) decreased from 40.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 38.5-43.0; 1275.9 excess deaths in 31,302 person-years) before the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (pre-1996) to 6.1 (95% CI, 4.8-7.4; 89.6 excess deaths in 14,703 person-years) in 2004-2006 (adjusted excess hazard ratio, 0.05 [95% CI, 0.03-0.09] for 2004-2006 vs pre-1996). By 2004-2006, no excess mortality was observed in the first 5 years following HIV seroconversion among those infected sexually, though a cumulative excess probability of death remained over the longer term (4.8% [95% CI, 2.5%-8.6%] in the first 10 years among those aged 15-24 years). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality rates for HIV-infected persons have become much closer to general mortality rates since the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy. In industrialized countries, persons infected sexually with HIV now appear to experience mortality rates similar to those of the general population in the first 5 years following infection, though a mortality excess remains as duration of HIV infection lengthens.

[HIV/AIDS--from lethal syndrome to chronic disease]. / Fra dødelig syndrom til kronisk sykdom.

BACKGROUND: At its discovery in 1981, AIDS was a fatal syndrome that rapidly led to death. Combination treatment with at least three drugs has radically improved the prognosis. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The study includes all HIV-patients controlled at the Department of Infectious Diseases, Ullevål University Hospital from 1982 to 2005. Development of immune deficiency, morbidity and causes of death were registered prospectively. Possible connections between death and HIV-infection and treatment were evaluated. RESULTS: 1632 patients were followed at our department. 32 % of these patients have died. The number of patients who died annually during the 5 years from 1986 to 1990 was 47 % and this was reduced to 11 % in 2001 - 05. Many patients still die because they either present too late for treatment or have received insufficient treatment. 22 patients have died during the last 10 years irrespective of starting treatment with at least 3 antiretroviral drugs: 7 died from cancers, 6 from treatment failure, one from unknown cause and 8 from other causes. The 6 patients who died from treatment failure had very low CD4 counts and serious opportunistic infections that could not be treated effectively at the time of diagnosis. INTERPRETATION: Patients who start and adhere to treatment with 3 HIV-medications have a good prognosis, but they may still have an increased risk of non-AIDS defining cancers and cardiovascular disease. HIV/AIDS has become a chronic disease with a good prognosis.

Changes over calendar time in the risk of specific first AIDS-defining events following HIV seroconversion, adjusting for competing risks.

BACKGROUND: Although studies have reported large reductions in the risks of AIDS and death since the introduction of potent anti-retroviral therapies, few have evaluated whether this has been similar for all AIDS-defining diseases. We wished to evaluate changes over time in the risk of specific AIDS-defining diseases, as first events, using data from individuals with known dates of HIV seroconversion. METHODS: Using a competing risks proportional hazards model on pooled data from 20 cohorts (CASCADE), we evaluated time from HIV seroconversion to each first AIDS-defining disease (16 groups) and to death without AIDS for four calendar periods, adjusting for exposure category, age, sex, acute infection, and stratifying by cohort. We compared results to those obtained from a cause-specific hazards model. RESULTS: Of 6,941, 2,021 (29%) developed AIDS and 437 (6%) died without AIDS. The risk of AIDS or death remained constant to 1996 then reduced; relative hazard = 0.89 (95% CI: 0.77-1.03); 0.90 (95% CI: 0.81-1.01); and 0.32 (95% CI: 0.28-0.37) for 1979-1990, 1991-1993, and 1997-2001, respectively, compared to 1994-1996. Significant risk reductions in 1997-2001 were observed in all but two AIDS-defining groups and death without AIDS in a competing risks model (with similar results from a cause-specific model). There was significant heterogeneity in the risk reduction across events; from 96% for cryptosporidiosis, to 17% for death without AIDS (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that studies reporting a stable trend for particular AIDS diseases over the period 1979-2001 may not have accounted for the competing risks among other events or lack the power to detect smaller trends.