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OBJECTIVES: Studies showed that men who have sex with men (MSM), including those using pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), are at increased risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. We evaluated HCV prevalence and incidence, along with their associated determinants, in a cohort of PrEP-using individuals in the Netherlands. METHODS: In 2019, the Netherlands launched a 5-year national programme that offers subsidised PrEP to eligible individuals. We used prospectively collected data from individuals registered in this programme between 2019 and 2022. Individuals underwent annual testing for HCV antibodies and additional HCV-RNA testing when antibodies were present. We calculated the prevalence of past/current HCV infection at first visit and overall incidence rate (IR) during follow-up. Univariable logistic and Poisson regression models were used to identify determinants associated with past/current prevalent or incident HCV infection, respectively. Behavioural factors referred to those occurring in the previous 6 months. RESULTS: A total of 10 563 (n=10 319, 97.7% MSM) were included. At first visit, 66 of 10 563 (0.6%) had a past/current HCV infection, which was associated with older age [odds ratio (OR) per 10 years=1.57, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.31 to 1.88], the use of PrEP before first visit (OR=3.03, 95% CI=1.79 to 5.13), receptive condomless anal sex (CAS) (OR=2.73, 95% CI=1.25 to 5.98), chemsex (OR=2.44, 95% CI=1.49 to 3.99) and injecting drug use (IDU) (OR=6.61, 95% CI=2.35 to 18.61). Among 9851 individuals contributing to 17 150 person-years (PYs) of follow-up, 64 incident HCV infections (IR=0.37 per 100 PYs, 95% CI=0.29 to 0.48) were identified. Factors associated with incident HCV infection were receptive CAS [incidence rate ratio (IRR)=2.59, 95% CI=1.12 to 6.02], chemsex (IRR=1.78, 95% CI=1.06 to 2.98), sexually transmitted infection diagnosis (IRR=2.30, 95% CI=1.23 to 4.31) and IDU (IRR=6.15, 95% CI=2.20 to 17.18). CONCLUSIONS: Past/current prevalence and incidence of HCV were low among individuals in the Dutch PrEP programme. Infections were associated with behaviour known to be associated with HCV. Instead of annual HCV testing, as stated in most PrEP care guidelines, testing frequency for HCV could be based on behaviours associated with HCV acquisition.
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Hepatite C , Homossexualidade Masculina , Profilaxia Pré-Exposição , Humanos , Masculino , Países Baixos/epidemiologia , Adulto , Hepatite C/epidemiologia , Hepatite C/prevenção & controle , Profilaxia Pré-Exposição/estatística & dados numéricos , Incidência , Prevalência , Homossexualidade Masculina/estatística & dados numéricos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Feminino , Hepacivirus/imunologia , Hepacivirus/genética , Seguimentos , Estudos Prospectivos , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/prevenção & controle , Fatores de Risco , Adulto Jovem , Minorias Sexuais e de Gênero/estatística & dados numéricosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Limited estimates exist on risk factors for epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) in Asian, Hispanic, and Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander (NHPI) women. METHODS: Participants included 1734 Asian (785 cases, 949 controls), 266 NHPI (99 cases, 167 controls), 1149 Hispanic (505 cases, 644 controls), and 24,189 White (9,981 cases, 14,208 controls) women from 11 studies in the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium. Logistic regression models estimated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk associations by race and ethnicity. RESULTS: Heterogeneity in EOC risk associations by race and ethnicity (p ≤ 0.02) was observed for oral contraceptive (OC) use, parity, tubal ligation and smoking. We observed inverse associations with EOC risk for OC use and parity across all groups; associations were strongest in NHPI and Asian women. The inverse association for tubal ligation with risk was most pronounced for NHPI participants (OR=0.25, 95% CI 0.13-0.48), versus Asian and White participants, respectively (OR=0.68, 95% CI 0.51-0.90; OR=0.78, 95% CI 0.73-0.85). CONCLUSIONS: Differences in EOC risk factor associations were observed across racial and ethnic groups, which could in part be due to varying prevalence of EOC histotypes. Inclusion of greater diversity in future studies is essential to inform prevention strategies.
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There are racial/ethnic differences in the incidence of hormone receptor positive and negative breast cancer. To understand why these differences exist, we investigated associations between hormone-related factors and breast cancer risk by race/ethnicity in the Multiethnic Cohort (MEC) Study. Among 81 511 MEC participants (Native Hawaiian, Japanese American, Latina, African American and White women), 3806 estrogen receptor positive (ER+) and 828 ER- incident invasive breast cancers were diagnosed during a median of 21 years of follow-up. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to calculate associations between race/ethnicity and breast cancer risk, and associations between hormone-related factors and breast cancer risk by race/ethnicity. Relative to White women, ER+ breast cancer risk was higher in Native Hawaiians and lower in Latinas and African Americans; ER- disease risk was higher in African Americans. We observed interaction with race/ethnicity in associations between oral contraceptive use (OC; Pint .03) and body mass index (BMI; Pint .05) with ER+ disease risk; ever versus never OC use increased risk only in Latinas and positive associations for obese versus lean BMI were strongest in Japanese Americans. For ER- disease risk, associations for OC use, particularly duration of use, were strongest for African Americans (Pint .04). Our study shows that associations of OC use and obesity with ER+ and ER- breast cancer risk differ by race/ethnicity, but established risk factors do not fully explain racial/ethnic differences in risk. Further studies are needed to identify factors to explain observed racial/ethnic differences in breast cancer incidence.
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Neoplasias da Mama/etiologia , Etnicidade/estatística & dados numéricos , Pós-Menopausa/etnologia , Receptores de Estrogênio/metabolismo , Receptores de Progesterona/metabolismo , Idoso , Neoplasias da Mama/metabolismo , Neoplasias da Mama/patologia , Feminino , Seguimentos , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prognóstico , Estudos ProspectivosAssuntos
Compostos Benzidrílicos , Neoplasias do Endométrio , Parabenos , Fenóis , Ácidos Ftálicos , Compostos Benzidrílicos/toxicidade , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Estudos de Coortes , Neoplasias do Endométrio/induzido quimicamente , Neoplasias do Endométrio/etnologia , Etnicidade/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Humanos , Parabenos/toxicidade , Fenóis/toxicidade , Ácidos Ftálicos/toxicidadeRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Anthropometric and hormone-related factors are established endometrial cancer risk factors; however, little is known about the impact of these factors on endometrial cancer risk in non-White women. METHODS: Among 110,712 women participating in the Multiethnic Cohort (MEC) Study, 1150 incident invasive endometrial cancers were diagnosed. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations with endometrial cancer risk for race/ethnicity and for risk factors across racial/ethnic groups were calculated. RESULTS: Having a higher body mass index (BMI) at baseline or age 21 years was strongly associated with increased risk (pint race/ethnicity ≥ 0.36). Parity (vs nulliparity) was inversely associated with risk in all the groups except African Americans (pint 0.006). Current use of postmenopausal hormones at baseline (PMH-E; vs never use) was associated with increased risk in Whites and Japanese Americans (pint 0.002). Relative to Whites, endometrial cancer risk was lower in Japanese Americans and Latinas and non-significantly higher in Native Hawaiians. Risk in African Americans did not differ from that in Whites. CONCLUSIONS: Racial/ethnic differences in endometrial cancer risk were not fully explained by anthropometric or hormone-related risk factors. Further studies are needed to identify reasons for the observed racial/ethnic differences in endometrial cancer risk.
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Pesos e Medidas Corporais/estatística & dados numéricos , Neoplasias do Endométrio/etnologia , Neoplasias do Endométrio/etiologia , Hormônios Gonadais/sangue , Adulto , Idoso , Índice de Massa Corporal , Estudos de Coortes , Neoplasias do Endométrio/sangue , Etnicidade/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Humanos , Estilo de Vida/etnologia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Grupos Raciais/estatística & dados numéricos , História Reprodutiva , Fatores de Risco , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Adulto JovemRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Incidence rates of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) vary across racial/ethnic groups, yet little is known about the impact of hormone-related EOC risk factors in non-Whites. METHODS: Among 91,625 female Multiethnic Cohort Study participants, 155 incident EOC cases were diagnosed in Whites, 93 in African Americans, 57 in Native Hawaiians, 161 in Japanese Americans, and 141 in Latinas. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between race/ethnicity and EOC risk and between hormone-related factors and EOC risk across racial/ethnic groups. RESULTS: Compared with Whites, African Americans and Japanese Americans had a lower multivariable-adjusted EOC risk; Native Hawaiians had a suggestive higher risk. Parity and oral contraceptive (OC) use were inversely associated with EOC risk (P int race/ethnicity ≥ 0.43); associations were strongest among Japanese Americans (e.g., ≥4 vs. 0 children; HR = 0.45; CI, 0.26-0.79). Age at natural menopause and postmenopausal hormone (PMH) use were not associated with EOC risk in the overall population, but were positively associated with risk in Latinas (e.g., ≥5 years vs. never PMH use; HR = 2.13; CI, 1.30-3.49). CONCLUSIONS: We observed strong associations with EOC risk for parity and OC use in Japanese Americans and PMH use and age at natural menopause in Latinas. However, differences in EOC risk among racial/ethnic groups were not fully explained by established hormone-related risk factors. IMPACT: Our study indicates there are racial/ethnic differences in EOC risk and risk factors, and could help improve prevention strategies for non-White women.
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Etnicidade/estatística & dados numéricos , Neoplasias Ovarianas/epidemiologia , Fatores Raciais/estatística & dados numéricos , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Except for a documented increase in osteoprotegerin (OPG) concentrations with older age, data on determinants of soluble Receptor Activator of Nuclear Factor κB (sRANKL) and OPG concentrations in women are limited. We evaluated reproductive and lifestyle factors as potential sources of variation in circulating sRANKL and OPG concentrations in pre- and postmenopausal women. METHODS: This study includes 2,016 controls [n = 1,552 (76%) postmenopausal, n = 757 (38%) using postmenopausal hormone therapy (PMH)] from a breast cancer case-control study nested in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Serum sRANKL was measured using an ELISA and serum OPG using an electrochemiluminescent assay. Generalized linear models were used to evaluate associations between these analytes and reproductive and lifestyle factors. RESULTS: Older age at blood collection was associated with lower sRANKL concentrations in postmenopausal women (P trend ≤ 0.03) and higher OPG concentrations in all women (P trend ≤ 0.01). Longer duration of oral contraceptive use among premenopausal women and postmenopausal PMH users was associated with higher OPG (P trend ≤ 0.04). In postmenopausal non-PMH users, sRANKL concentrations were lower with longer duration of oral contraceptive use and current (vs. never) smoking (P ≤ 0.01). sRANKL concentrations were higher among women with higher BMI (P trend ≤ 0.01). The evaluated factors accounted for 12% of the variation in sRANKL concentrations and 21% of the variation in OPG concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: Circulating sRANKL and OPG concentrations are minimally impacted by hormone-related factors in pre- and postmenopausal women. IMPACT: This study suggests circulating concentrations of sRANKL and OPG are unlikely to be strongly modified by hormone-related reproductive and lifestyle factors.
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Comportamento Contraceptivo/estatística & dados numéricos , Terapia de Reposição de Estrogênios/estatística & dados numéricos , Osteoprotegerina/sangue , Ligante RANK/sangue , Fatores Etários , Biomarcadores/sangue , Índice de Massa Corporal , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Humanos , Estilo de Vida , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pós-Menopausa/sangue , Pré-Menopausa/sangue , História ReprodutivaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa-B (RANK)-signaling is involved in tumor growth and spread in experimental models. Binding of RANK ligand (RANKL) to RANK activates signaling, which is inhibited by osteoprotegerin (OPG). We have previously shown that circulating soluble RANKL (sRANKL) and OPG are associated with breast cancer risk. Here we extend these findings to provide the first data on pre-diagnosis concentrations of sRANKL and OPG and risk of breast cancer-specific and overall mortality after a breast cancer diagnosis. METHODS: Two thousand six pre- and postmenopausal women with incident invasive breast cancer (1620 (81%) with ER+ disease) participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort were followed-up for mortality. Pre-diagnosis concentrations of sRANKL and OPG were quantified in baseline serum samples using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and electrochemiluminescent assay, respectively. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for breast cancer-specific and overall mortality were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression models. RESULTS: Especially in women with ER+ disease, higher circulating OPG concentrations were associated with higher risk of breast cancer-specific (quintile 5 vs 1 HR 1.77 [CI 1.03, 3.04]; ptrend 0.10) and overall mortality (q5 vs 1 HR 1.39 [CI 0.94, 2.05]; ptrend 0.02). sRANKL and the sRANKL/OPG ratio were not associated with mortality following a breast cancer diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: High pre-diagnosis endogenous concentrations of OPG, the decoy receptor for RANKL, were associated with increased risk of death after a breast cancer diagnosis, especially in those with ER+ disease. These results need to be confirmed in well-characterized patient cohorts.
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Neoplasias da Mama/metabolismo , Neoplasias da Mama/mortalidade , Osteoprotegerina/metabolismo , Ligante RANK/metabolismo , Adulto , Idoso , Neoplasias da Mama/diagnóstico , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Humanos , Limite de Detecção , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Osteoprotegerina/sangue , Prognóstico , RiscoRESUMO
Background Temporal trends in incidence and mortality of cardiovascular disease (CVD) have been well described, with recent data suggesting declining improvements in those aged under 55 years. However, little is known about the combined impact of incidence and mortality trends on disease prevalence, an important indicator of disease burden and cost. We analysed changes in age-specific and age-standardised temporal trends in prevalence and incidence of CVD subtypes. Methods Annual prevalence and incidence rates of coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease and peripheral arterial disease for the Western Australian population for 1995-2010 were calculated using data from the Western Australian Data Linkage System. Joinpoint regression analyses were used to identify joinpoints in trends in age-specific and age-standardised annual prevalence and incidence rates for each CVD subtype. Results Between 1995 and 2010, age- and sex-specific incidence and prevalence of the CVD subtypes generally decreased among middle-aged and older adults, but were stable or increased among younger adults. In < 55 year olds, increases in incidence tended to occur from 2003, while increases in prevalence were from 2007/2008. Declines in age-standardised incidence were greater than those in crude incidence, with changes in population structure having a greater impact among men than women. Conclusions The majority of CVDs occurs in older adults. Our findings of generally worsening trends in prevalence in younger adults across most CVD subtypes were in contrast to generally declining trends in older age groups. These data highlight the importance of monitoring prevalence and incidence, particularly in younger adults.
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Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Sistema de Registros , Adulto , Distribuição por Idade , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prevalência , Estudos Retrospectivos , Distribuição por Sexo , Fatores Sexuais , Austrália Ocidental/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Receptor activator of nuclear factor-kappa B (RANK)-RANK ligand (RANKL) signaling promotes mammary tumor development in experimental models. Circulating concentrations of soluble RANKL (sRANKL) may influence breast cancer risk via activation of RANK signaling; this may be modulated by osteoprotegerin (OPG), the decoy receptor for RANKL. sRANKL and breast cancer risk by hormone receptor subtype has not previously been investigated. A case-control study was nested in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. This study included 1,976 incident invasive breast cancer cases [estrogen receptor positive (ER+), n = 1,598], matched 1:1 to controls. Women were pre- or postmenopausal at blood collection. Serum sRANKL was quantified using an ELISA, serum OPG using an electrochemiluminescent assay. Risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated using conditional logistic regression. Associations between sRANKL and breast cancer risk differed by tumor hormone receptor status (Phet = 0.05). Higher concentrations of sRANKL were positively associated with risk of ER+ breast cancer [5th vs. 1st quintile RR 1.28 (95% CI, 1.01-1.63); Ptrend = 0.20], but not ER- disease. For both ER+ and estrogen and progesterone receptor positive (ER+PR+) breast cancer, results considering the sRANKL/OPG ratio were similar to those for sRANKL; we observed a suggestive inverse association between the ratio and ER-PR- disease [5th vs. 1st quintile RR = 0.60 (0.31-1.14); Ptrend = 0.03]. This study provides the first large-scale prospective data on circulating sRANKL and breast cancer. We observed limited evidence for an association between sRANKL and breast cancer risk. Cancer Prev Res; 10(9); 525-34. ©2017 AACR.
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Neoplasias da Mama/sangue , Neoplasias da Mama/epidemiologia , Osteoprotegerina/sangue , Ligante RANK/sangue , Adulto , Idoso , Mama/patologia , Neoplasias da Mama/patologia , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Feminino , Seguimentos , Humanos , Incidência , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Prospectivos , Receptores de Estrogênio/metabolismo , Receptores de Progesterona/metabolismo , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Circulating osteoprotegerin (OPG), a member of the receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa-B (RANK) axis, may influence breast cancer risk via its role as the decoy receptor for both the RANK ligand (RANKL) and tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL). Circulating OPG and breast cancer risk has been examined in only one prior study. METHODS: A case-control study was nested in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. A total of 2008 incident invasive breast cancer cases (estrogen receptor (ER)+, n = 1622; ER-, n = 386), matched 1:1 to controls, were included in the analysis. Women were predominantly postmenopausal at blood collection (77%); postmenopausal women included users and non-users of postmenopausal hormone therapy (HT). Serum OPG was quantified with an electrochemiluminescence assay. Relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: The associations between OPG and ER+ and ER- breast cancer differed significantly. Higher concentrations of OPG were associated with increased risk of ER- breast cancer (top vs. bottom tertile RR = 1.93 [95% CI 1.24-3.02]; p trend = 0.03). We observed a suggestive inverse association for ER+ disease overall and among women premenopausal at blood collection. Results for ER- disease did not differ by menopausal status at blood collection (p het = 0.97), and we observed no heterogeneity by HT use at blood collection (p het ≥ 0.43) or age at breast cancer diagnosis (p het ≥ 0.30). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides the first prospective data on OPG and breast cancer risk by hormone receptor subtype. High circulating OPG may represent a novel risk factor for ER- breast cancer.
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Neoplasias da Mama/sangue , Osteoprotegerina/sangue , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Prospectivos , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: While the breast cancer risk associated with increasing adult BMI in postmenopausal women can be explained by increases in concentrations of endogenous estrogens the biologic mechanisms behind the inverse association between adolescent BMI and breast cancer risk are still a subject of controversial debate. METHODS: We investigated the association of breast cancer with body size and changes in body size across life time estimated by age-specific BMI Z scores and changes in BMI Z scores from teenage years to middle age in an age-matched population-based case-control study of 2994 Australian women. Logistic regression adjusted for the matching factor age and further potential confounders was used. RESULTS: Adolescent body leanness in postmenopausal women and excess adult weight gain in all study participants were associated with an increased breast cancer risk with an odds ratio [95% confidence interval] of 1.29 [1.08,1.54] and 1.31 [1.09,1.59], respectively. Interaction analyses restricted to postmenopausal women revealed an increased risk of breast cancer in those who were lean during adolescence and gained excess weight during adulthood (odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 1.52 [1.19,1.95]) but not in women who were lean during adolescence and did not gain excess weight during adulthood (1.20 [0.97,1.48]) and not in women who were not lean during adolescence and but gained excess weight during adulthood (1.10 [0.95,1.27]) compared to postmenopausal women who were neither lean during adolescence nor gained excess weight. CONCLUSION: In postmenopausal women adolescent leanness was only associated with increased breast cancer risk when excess weight was gained during adulthood.
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Índice de Massa Corporal , Tamanho Corporal , Neoplasias da Mama/etiologia , Obesidade/complicações , Aumento de Peso , Adolescente , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Austrália/epidemiologia , Neoplasias da Mama/epidemiologia , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Feminino , Humanos , Estilo de Vida , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Razão de Chances , Pós-Menopausa , Fatores de Risco , Adulto JovemRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: A tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) has been proposed to address population weight gain but the effect across socio-economic position (SEP) is unclear. The current study aimed to clarify the differential impact(s) of SSB taxes on beverage purchases and consumption, weight outcomes and the amount paid in SSB taxes according to SEP. DESIGN: Databases (OVID and EMBASE) and grey literature were systematically searched in June 2015 to identify studies that examined effects of an SSB price increase on beverage purchases or consumption, weight outcomes or the amount paid in tax across SEP, within high-income countries. RESULTS: Of the eleven included articles, three study types were identified: (i) those that examined the association between variation in SSB taxes and SSB consumption and/or body weight (n 3); (ii) price elasticity estimation of SSB demand (n 1); and (iii) modelling of hypothetical SSB taxes by combining price elasticity estimates with population SEP-specific beverage consumption, energy intake or body weight (n 7). Few studies statistically tested differences in outcomes between SEP groups. Nevertheless, of the seven studies that reported on changes in weight outcomes for the total population following an increase in SSB price, all reported either similar reductions in weight across SEP groups or greater reductions for lower compared with higher SEP groups. All studies that examined the average household amount paid in tax (n 5) reported that an SSB tax would be regressive, but with small differences between higher- and lower-income households (0·10-1·0 % and 0·03 %-0·60 % of annual household income paid in SSB tax for low- and high-income households, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Based on the available evidence, a tax on SSB will deliver similar population weight benefits across socio-economic strata or greater benefits for lower SEP groups. An SSB tax is shown to be consistently financially regressive, but to a small degree.
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Bebidas/economia , Peso Corporal , Sacarose Alimentar/economia , Açúcares/economia , Impostos , Ingestão de Energia , Humanos , Obesidade/prevenção & controleRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Menu energy labelling at point of purchase is gaining traction worldwide, yet the potential impact for different socioeconomic groups is unclear. We aimed to summarise evidence on the effectiveness of menu energy labelling by socioeconomic position (SEP). METHODS: A systematic search for papers published to September 2015 was conducted using terms for labelling, food outlets, and SEP. Quality of studies was assessed. Results were summarised across stages of an intervention logic pathway. RESULTS: Eighteen papers were identified. Of twelve studies reporting the effect of menu energy labelling in low SEP populations, six reported on purchase outcomes. All but one of these reported no positive effect of the policy for this population. Two of the five studies that compared purchase outcomes of menu labelling across SEP groups reported that the policy was effective overall. These two studies reported either a significant decline in fast food calories purchased from consumers in high (but not low) SEP neighbourhoods or a significantly greater decline in calories purchased among consumers visiting stores in higher SEP neighbourhoods post policy implementation. None of the included papers reached the highest quality score. CONCLUSIONS: The current evidence describing the impact of menu energy labelling within or across SEP is limited in quantity and quality. Of the two studies that reported a positive benefit of menu energy labelling overall, both identified a greater effect on fast food purchases among consumers visiting stores in high compared to low SEP neighbourhoods. It is difficult to know whether the absence of effectiveness reported in low SEP populations represents a true lack of effectiveness or is a result of a more general lack of policy effectiveness or the limited quality of the reviewed studies.
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Ingestão de Energia/etnologia , Rotulagem de Alimentos/métodos , Preferências Alimentares/psicologia , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Comportamento de Escolha , Bases de Dados Factuais , HumanosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: For decades, the incidence and mortality of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have declined. More recently, we have seen a halting in these declines, especially at younger ages. It is difficult to predict how these changing trends will impact CVD prevalence. We aimed to predict future prevalence of CVDs in Western Australian adults from 2005-2045 based on current incidence and mortality probabilities, population growth and ageing. METHODS AND RESULTS: Multi-state life table models were developed using 2005-2009 age- and sex-specific incidence and mortality probabilities from the Western Australian Data Linkage System. Prevalence of CVD, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke was projected until 2045. Life expectancy and lifetime risk were estimated. We estimate that compared to 2005-2009, we will see 37,235 (CVD), 23,129 (CHD) and 9806 (stroke) more incident cases in 2040-2044. The prevalence of total CVD is predicted to increase from 8.4% in men and 5.1% in women in 2005 to 12.7% and 7.9% respectively in 2045. This seems to be mainly due to population growth and ageing, with some effect of changing incidence and mortality. In Western Australia this represents an additional 106,949 adults living with CVD, of which 65,951 with CHD and 10,928 with stroke, in 2045 compared to 2005. CONCLUSIONS: Assuming no major changes in prevention and treatment of CVD, the prevalence will likely increase, with consequent increases in health care need and cost. These findings need to be confirmed by studies in which prevalence is consistently and empirically measured and monitored over time.
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Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Adulto , Distribuição por Idade , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Doenças Cardiovasculares/diagnóstico , Doenças Cardiovasculares/mortalidade , Doenças Cardiovasculares/terapia , Feminino , Previsões , Necessidades e Demandas de Serviços de Saúde/tendências , Humanos , Incidência , Tábuas de Vida , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Estatísticos , Avaliação das Necessidades/tendências , Prevalência , Sistema de Registros , Medição de Risco , Fatores de Risco , Distribuição por Sexo , Fatores Sexuais , Fatores de Tempo , Austrália Ocidental/epidemiologiaRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: We aimed to estimate the impact of past and future changes in obesity and diabetes prevalence in mid-life on disability prevalence for adult Australians. METHODS: We analysed data from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study (AusDiab) including participants aged 45-64years, disability-free at baseline (1999/2000) with disability information at follow-up (2011/12) (n=2107). We used coefficients from multinomial logistic regression to predict 10-year probabilities of disability and death from baseline predictors (age, sex, obesity, smoking, diabetes and hypertension). We estimated the prevalence of disability attributable to past (1980) and expected future (2025) changes in obesity and diabetes prevalence using the life table approach. RESULTS: We estimated that the prevalence of disability for those aged between 55 and 74years would have been 1697 cases per 100,000 persons less in 2010 (10.3% less) if the rates of obesity and diabetes observed in 2000 had been as low as the levels observed in 1980. However, if instead the prevalence of obesity and diabetes had been as high as the levels expected in 2025, then the prevalence of disability would have been an additional 2173 per 100,000 persons (an additional 13.2%). CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate, for the first time, a substantial potential impact of obesity and diabetes trends on disability amongst those aged 55-74years. In Australian adults by 2025 we estimate that around 26% of disability cases would have been avoidable if there had been no change in obesity and diabetes prevalence since 1980. A similar impact is likely around the world in developed countries.