Predictability, an Orrery, and a Speciation Machine: Quest for a Standard Model of Speciation.

Accurate predictions are commonly taken as a hallmark of strong scientific understanding. Yet, we do not seem capable today of making many accurate predictions about biological speciation. Why? What limits predictability in general, what exactly is the function and value of predictions, and how might we go about predicting new species? Inspired by an orrery used to explain solar eclipses, we address these questions with a thought experiment in which we conceive an evolutionary speciation machine generating new species. This experiment highlights complexity, chance, and speciation pluralism as the three fundamental challenges for predicting speciation. It also illustrates the methodological value of predictions in testing and improving conceptual models. We then outline how we might move from the hypothetical speciation machine to a predictive standard model of speciation. Operationalizing, testing, and refining this model will require a concerted shift to large-scale, integrative, and interdisciplinary efforts across the tree of life. This endeavor, paired with technological advances, may reveal apparently stochastic processes to be deterministic, and promises to expand the breadth and depth of our understanding of speciation and more generally, of evolution.

Instability of natural selection at candidate barrier loci underlying speciation in wood ants.

Speciation underlies the generation of novel biodiversity. Yet, there is much to learn about how natural selection shapes genomes during speciation. Selection is assumed to act against gene flow at barrier loci, promoting reproductive isolation. However, evidence for gene flow and selection is often indirect and we know very little about the temporal stability of barrier loci. Here we utilize haplodiploidy to identify candidate male barrier loci in hybrids between two wood ant species. As ant males are haploid, they are expected to reveal recessive barrier loci, which can be masked in diploid females if heterozygous. We then test for barrier stability in a sample collected 10 years later and use survival analysis to provide a direct measure of natural selection acting on candidate male barrier loci. We find multiple candidate male barrier loci scattered throughout the genome. Surprisingly, a proportion of them are not stable after 10 years, natural selection apparently switching from acting against to favouring introgression in the later sample. Instability of the barrier effect and natural selection for introgressed alleles could be due to environment-dependent selection, emphasizing the need to consider temporal variation in the strength of natural selection and the stability of the barrier effect at putative barrier loci in future speciation work.