Estimate of Burden and Direct Healthcare Cost of Infectious Waterborne Disease in the United States.

Provision of safe drinking water in the United States is a great public health achievement. However, new waterborne disease challenges have emerged (e.g., aging infrastructure, chlorine-tolerant and biofilm-related pathogens, increased recreational water use). Comprehensive estimates of the health burden for all water exposure routes (ingestion, contact, inhalation) and sources (drinking, recreational, environmental) are needed. We estimated total illnesses, emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, deaths, and direct healthcare costs for 17 waterborne infectious diseases. About 7.15 million waterborne illnesses occur annually (95% credible interval [CrI] 3.88 million-12.0 million), results in 601,000 ED visits (95% CrI 364,000-866,000), 118,000 hospitalizations (95% CrI 86,800-150,000), and 6,630 deaths (95% CrI 4,520-8,870) and incurring US $3.33 billion (95% CrI 1.37 billion-8.77 billion) in direct healthcare costs. Otitis externa and norovirus infection were the most common illnesses. Most hospitalizations and deaths were caused by biofilm-associated pathogens (nontuberculous mycobacteria, Pseudomonas, Legionella), costing US $2.39 billion annually.

Preliminary Incidence and Trends of Infections with Pathogens Transmitted Commonly Through Food - Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network, 10 U.S. Sites, 2015-2018.

Foodborne diseases represent a major health problem in the United States. The Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) of CDC's Emerging Infections Program monitors cases of laboratory-diagnosed infection caused by eight pathogens transmitted commonly through food in 10 U.S. sites.* This report summarizes preliminary 2018 data and changes since 2015. During 2018, FoodNet identified 25,606 infections, 5,893 hospitalizations, and 120 deaths. The incidence of most infections is increasing, including those caused by Campylobacter and Salmonella, which might be partially attributable to the increased use of culture-independent diagnostic tests (CIDTs). The incidence of Cyclospora infections increased markedly compared with 2015-2017, in part related to large outbreaks associated with produce (1). More targeted prevention measures are needed on produce farms, food animal farms, and in meat and poultry processing establishments to make food safer and decrease human illness.

Drivers Motivating Community Health Improvement Plan Completion by Local Public Health Agencies and Community Partners in the Rocky Mountain Region and Western Plains.

CONTEXT: There are numerous drivers that motivate completion of community health improvement plans (CHIPs). Some are more obvious and include voluntary public health accreditation, state requirements, federal and state funding, and nonprofit hospital requirements through IRS regulations. Less is known about other drivers, including involvement of diverse partners and belief in best practices, that may motivate CHIP completion. OBJECTIVE: This research investigated the drivers that motivated CHIP completion based on experiences of 51 local public health agencies (LPHAs). DESIGN: An explanatory mixed-methods design, including closed- and open-ended survey questions and key informant interviews, was used to understand the drivers that motivated CHIP completion. Analysis of survey data involved descriptive statistics. Classical content analysis was used for qualitative data to clarify survey findings. SETTING: The surveys and key informant interviews were conducted in the Rocky Mountain Region and Western Plains among 51 medium and large LPHAs in Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming. PARTICIPANTS: More than 50% of respondents were public health directors; the balance of the respondents were division/program directors, accreditation coordinators, and public health planners. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: CHIP completion. RESULTS: Most LPHAs in the Rocky Mountains and Western Plains have embraced developing and publishing a CHIP, with 80% having completed their plan and another 13% working on it. CHIP completion is motivated by a belief in best practices, with LPHAs and partners seeing the benefit of quality improvement activities linked to the CHIP and the investment of nonprofit hospitals in the process. Completing a CHIP is strengthened through engagement of diverse partners and a well-functioning partnership. CONCLUSION: The future of CHIP creation depends on LPHAs and partners investing in the CHIP as a best practice, dedicating personnel to CHIP activities, and enhancing leadership skills to contribute to a synergistic partnership by effectively working and communicating with diverse partners and developing and achieving common goals.

Food Source Prediction of Shiga Toxin-Producing Escherichia coli Outbreaks Using Demographic and Outbreak Characteristics, United States, 1998-2014.

BACKGROUND: Foodborne illness is a continuing public health problem in the United States. Although outbreak-associated illnesses represent a fraction of all foodborne illnesses, foodborne outbreak investigations provide critical information on the pathogens, foods, and food-pathogen pairs causing illness. Therefore, identification of a food source in an outbreak investigation is key to impacting food safety. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to systematically identify outbreak-associated case demographic and outbreak characteristics that are predictive of food sources using Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) outbreaks reported to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from 1998 to 2014 with a single ingredient identified. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Differences between STEC food sources by all candidate predictors were assessed univariately. Multinomial logistic regression was used to build a prediction model, which was internally validated using a split-sample approach. RESULTS: There were 206 single-ingredient STEC outbreaks reported to CDC, including 125 (61%) beef outbreaks, 30 (14%) dairy outbreaks, and 51 (25%) vegetable outbreaks. The model differentiated food sources, with an overall sensitivity of 80% in the derivation set and 61% in the validation set. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the feasibility for a tool for public health professionals to rule out food sources during hypothesis generation in foodborne outbreak investigation and to improve efficiency while complementing existing methods.

Bacterial Enteric Infections Among Older Adults in the United States: Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network, 1996-2012.

BACKGROUND: A growing segment of the population-adults aged ≥65 years-is more susceptible than younger adults to certain enteric (including foodborne) infections and experience more severe disease. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using data on laboratory-confirmed infections from the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet), we describe trends in the incidence of Campylobacter spp., Escherichia coli O157, Listeria monocytogenes, and nontyphoidal Salmonella infections in adults aged ≥65 years over time and by age group and sex. We used data from FoodNet and other sources to estimate the total number of illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States caused by these infections each year using a statistical model to adjust for underdiagnosis (taking into account medical care-seeking, stool sample submission, laboratory practices, and test sensitivity). RESULTS: From 1996 to 2012, 4 pathogens caused 21,405 laboratory-confirmed infections among older adults residing in the FoodNet surveillance area; 49.3% were hospitalized, and 2.6% died. The average annual rate of infection was highest for Salmonella (12.8/100,000) and Campylobacter (12.1/100,000). Salmonella and Listeria led as causes of death. Among older adults, rates of laboratory-confirmed infection and the percentage of patients who were hospitalized and who died generally increased with age. A notable exception was the rate of Campylobacter infections, which decreased with increasing age. Adjusting for underdiagnosis, we estimated that these pathogens caused about 226,000 illnesses (≈600/100,000) annually among U.S. adults aged ≥65 years, resulting in ≈9700 hospitalizations and ≈500 deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Campylobacter, E. coli O157, Listeria, and Salmonella are major contributors to illness in older adults, highlighting the value of effective and targeted intervention.

Global incidence of human Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli infections and deaths: a systematic review and knowledge synthesis.

OBJECTIVES: Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) are an important cause of foodborne disease, yet global estimates of disease burden do not exist. Our objective was to estimate the global annual number of illnesses due to pathogenic STEC, and resultant hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS), end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and death. MATERIALS: We searched Medline, Scopus, SIGLE/OpenGrey, and CABI and World Health Organization (WHO) databases for studies of STEC incidence in the general population, published between January 1, 1990 and April 30, 2012, in all languages. We searched health institution websites for notifiable disease data and reports, cross-referenced citations, and consulted international knowledge experts. We employed an a priori hierarchical study selection process and synthesized results using a stochastic simulation model to account for uncertainty inherent in the data. RESULTS: We identified 16 articles and databases from 21 countries, from 10 of the 14 WHO Sub-Regions. We estimated that STEC causes 2,801,000 acute illnesses annually (95% Credible Interval [Cr.I.]: 1,710,000; 5,227,000), and leads to 3890 cases of HUS (95% Cr.I.: 2400; 6700), 270 cases of ESRD (95% Cr.I.: 20; 800), and 230 deaths (95% Cr.I.: 130; 420). Sensitivity analyses indicated these estimates are likely conservative. CONCLUSIONS: These are the first estimates of the global incidence of STEC-related illnesses, which have not been explicitly included in previous global burden of disease estimations. Compared to other pathogens with a foodborne transmission component, STEC appears to cause more cases than alveolar echinococcosis each year, but less than typhoid fever, foodborne trematodes, and nontyphoidal salmonellosis. APPLICATIONS: Given the persistence of STEC globally, efforts aimed at reducing the burden of foodborne disease should consider the relative contribution of STEC in the target population.

Wild ungulates as disseminators of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli in urban areas.

BACKGROUND: In 2008, children playing on a soccer field in Colorado were sickened with a strain of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O157:H7, which was ultimately linked to feces from wild Rocky Mountain elk. We addressed whether wild cervids were a potential source of STEC infections in humans and whether STEC was ubiquitous throughout wild cervid populations in Colorado. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We collected 483 fecal samples from Rocky Mountain elk and mule deer in urban and non-urban areas. Samples testing positive for STEC were higher in urban (11.0%) than non-urban (1.6%) areas. Elk fecal samples in urban areas had a much higher probability of containing STEC, which increased in both urban and non-urban areas as maximum daily temperature increased. Of the STEC-positive samples, 25% contained stx1 strains, 34.3% contained stx2, and 13% contained both stx1 and stx2. Additionally, eaeA genes were detected in 54.1% of the positive samples. Serotypes O103, and O146 were found in elk and deer feces, which also have the potential to cause human illness. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The high incidence of stx2 strains combined with eaeA and E-hyl genes that we found in wild cervid feces is associated with severe human disease, such as hemolytic uremic syndrome. This is of concern because there is a very close physical interface between elk and humans in urban areas that we sampled. In addition, we found a strong relationship between ambient temperature and incidence of STEC in elk feces, suggesting a higher incidence of STEC in elk feces in public areas on warmer days, which in turn may increase the likelihood that people will come in contact with infected feces. These concerns also have implications to other urban areas where high densities of coexisting wild cervids and humans interact on a regular basis.

Ciguatera and scombroid fish poisoning in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Ciguatera and scombroid fish poisonings are common causes of fish-related foodborne illness in the United States; however, existing surveillance systems underestimate the overall human health impact. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to describe existing data on ciguatera and scombroid fish poisonings from outbreak and poison control center reports and to estimate the overall number of ciguatera and scombroid fish-poisoning illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States. METHODS: We analyzed outbreak data from the Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance Systems (FDOSS) from 2000 to 2007 and poison control center call data from the National Poison Data System (NPDS) from 2005 to 2009 for reports of ciguatera and scombroid fish poisonings. Using a statistical model with many inputs, we adjusted the outbreak data for undercounting due to underreporting and underdiagnosis to generate estimates. Underreporting and underdiagnosis multipliers were derived from the poison control call data and the published literature. RESULTS: Annually, an average of 15 ciguatera and 28 scombroid fish-poisoning outbreaks, involving a total of 60 and 108 ill persons, respectively, were reported to FDOSS (2000-2007). NPDS reported an average of 173 exposure calls for ciguatoxin and 200 exposure calls for scombroid fish poisoning annually (2005-2009). After adjusting for undercounting, we estimated 15,910 (90% credible interval [CrI] 4140-37,408) ciguatera fish-poisoning illnesses annually, resulting in 343 (90% CrI 69-851) hospitalizations and three deaths (90% CrI 1-7). We estimated 35,142 (90% CrI: 10,496-78,128) scombroid fish-poisoning illnesses, resulting in 162 (90% CrI 0-558) hospitalizations and 0 deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Ciguatera and scombroid fish poisonings affect more Americans than reported in surveillance systems. Although additional data can improve these assessments, the estimated number of illnesses caused by seafood intoxication illuminates this public health problem. Efforts, including education, can reduce ciguatera and scombroid fish poisonings.

Estimates of illnesses, hospitalizations and deaths caused by major bacterial enteric pathogens in young children in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Many enteric pathogens disproportionately affect young children. However, higher incidences of laboratory-confirmed illness may be explained, at least in part, by higher rates of medical care-seeking and stool sample submission in this age group. We estimated the overall number of bacterial enteric illnesses among children <5 years old in the United States caused by Campylobacter, Escherichia coli O157, nontyphoidal Salmonella, Shigella and Yersinia enterocolitica. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used a statistical model that scaled counts of laboratory-confirmed illnesses from the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network up to an estimated number of illnesses in the United States, adjusting for the surveillance steps needed for an illness to be laboratory diagnosed (medical care sought, stool sample submitted, bacterial culture performed, laboratory tested for pathogen, laboratory test sensitivity). RESULTS: We estimated that 5 bacterial enteric pathogens caused 291,162 illnesses each year among children <5 years old, resulting in 102,746 physician visits, 7830 hospitalizations and 64 deaths. Nontyphoidal Salmonella caused most illnesses (42%), followed by Campylobacter (28%), Shigella (21%), Y. enterocolitica (5%) and E. coli O157 (3%). The estimated annual number of physician visits ranged from 3763 for E. coli O157 to 44,369 for nontyphoidal Salmonella. Nontyphoidal Salmonella was estimated to cause most hospitalizations (4670) and deaths (38). CONCLUSIONS: Bacterial enteric infections cause many illnesses in US children. Compared with the general population, enteric illnesses among children <5 years old are more likely to be diagnosed. However, overall rates of illness remain higher in children after adjusting for underdiagnosis in both groups.

Estimates of enteric illness attributable to contact with animals and their environments in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Contact with animals and their environment is an important, and often preventable, route of transmission for enteric pathogens. This study estimated the annual burden of illness attributable to animal contact for 7 groups of pathogens: Campylobacter species, Cryptosporidium species, Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) O157, STEC non-O157, Listeria monocytogenes, nontyphoidal Salmonella species, and Yersinia enterocolitica. METHODS: By using data from the US Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network and other sources, we estimated the proportion of illnesses attributable to animal contact for each pathogen and applied those proportions to the estimated annual number of illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths among US residents. We established credible intervals (CrIs) for each estimate. RESULTS: We estimated that 14% of all illnesses caused by these 7 groups of pathogens were attributable to animal contact. This estimate translates to 445 213 (90% CrI, 234 197-774 839) illnesses annually for the 7 groups combined. Campylobacter species caused an estimated 187 481 illnesses annually (90% CrI, 66 259-372 359), followed by nontyphoidal Salmonella species (127 155; 90% CrI, 66 502-219 886) and Cryptosporidium species (113 344; 90% CrI, 22 570-299 243). Of an estimated 4933 hospitalizations (90% CrI, 2704-7914), the majority were attributable to nontyphoidal Salmonella (48%), Campylobacter (38%), and Cryptosporidium (8%) species. Nontyphoidal Salmonella (62%), Campylobacter (22%), and Cryptosporidium (9%) were also responsible for the majority of the estimated 76 deaths (90% CrI, 5-211). CONCLUSIONS: Animal contact is an important transmission route for multiple major enteric pathogens. Continued efforts are needed to prevent pathogen transmission from animals to humans, including increasing awareness and encouraging hand hygiene.

Do differences in risk factors, medical care seeking, or medical practices explain the geographic variation in campylobacteriosis in Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) sites?

BACKGROUND: In the United States, considerable geographic variation in the rates of culture-confirmed Campylobacter infection has been consistently observed among sites participating in the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet). METHODS: We used data from the FoodNet Population Surveys and a FoodNet case-control study of sporadic infection to examine whether differences in medical care seeking, medical practices, or risk factors contributed to geographic variation in incidence. RESULTS: We found differences across the FoodNet sites in the proportion of persons seeking medical care for an acute campylobacteriosis-like illness (range, 24.9%-43.5%) and in the proportion of ill persons who submitted a stool sample (range, 18.6%-40.7%), but these differences were not statistically significant. We found no evidence of geographic effect modification of previously identified risk factors for campylobacteriosis in the case-control study analysis. The prevalence of some exposures varied among control subjects in the FoodNet sites, including the proportion of controls reporting eating chicken at a commercial eating establishment (18.2%-46.1%); contact with animal stool (8.9%-30.9%); drinking water from a lake, river, or stream (0%-5.1%); and contact with a farm animal (2.1%-12.7%). However, these differences do not fully explain the geographic variation in campylobacteriosis. CONCLUSIONS: Future studies that quantify Campylobacter contamination in poultry or variation in host immunity may be useful in identifying sources of this geographic variation in incidence.

Case-control studies of sporadic enteric infections: a review and discussion of studies conducted internationally from 1990 to 2009.

Epidemiologists have used case-control studies to investigate enteric disease outbreaks for many decades. Increasingly, case-control studies are also used to investigate risk factors for sporadic (not outbreak-associated) disease. While the same basic approach is used, there are important differences between outbreak and sporadic disease settings that need to be considered in the design and implementation of the case-control study for sporadic disease. Through the International Collaboration on Enteric Disease "Burden of Illness" Studies (the International Collaboration), we reviewed 79 case-control studies of sporadic enteric infections caused by nine pathogens that were conducted in 22 countries and published from 1990 through to 2009. We highlight important methodological and study design issues (including case definition, control selection, and exposure assessment) and discuss how approaches to the study of sporadic enteric disease have changed over the last 20 years (e.g., making use of more sensitive case definitions, databases of controls, and computer-assisted interviewing). As our understanding of sporadic enteric infections grows, methods and topics for case-control studies are expected to continue to evolve; for example, advances in understanding of the role of immunity can be used to improve control selection, the apparent protective effects of certain foods can be further explored, and case-control studies can be used to provide population-based measures of the burden of disease.

Estimating the burden of acute gastroenteritis and foodborne illness caused by Campylobacter, Salmonella, and Vibrio parahaemolyticus by using population-based telephone survey data, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan, 2005 to 2006.

Most cases of acute gastroenteritis and foodborne disease are not ascertained by public health surveillance because the ill person does not always seek medical care and submit a stool sample for testing, and the laboratory does not always test for or identify the causative organism. We estimated the total burden of acute gastroenteritis in Miyagi Prefecture, Japan, using data from two 2-week cross-sectional, population-based telephone surveys conducted in 2006 and 2007. To estimate the number of acute gastroenteritis illnesses caused by Campylobacter, Salmonella, and Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Miyagi Prefecture, we determined the number of cases for each pathogen from active laboratory-based surveillance during 2005 to 2006 and adjusted for seeking of medical care and submission of stool specimens by using data from the population-based telephone surveys. Monte Carlo simulation was used to incorporate uncertainty. The prevalence of acute gastroenteritis in the preceding 4 weeks was 3.3% (70 of 2,126) and 3.5% (74 of 2,121) in the winter and summer months, yielding an estimated 44,200 episodes of acute gastroenteritis each year in this region. Among people with acute gastroenteritis, the physician consultation rate was 32.0%, and 10.9% of persons who sought care submitted a stool sample. The estimated numbers of Campylobacter-, Salmonella-, and V. parahaemolyticus -associated episodes of acute gastroenteritis were 1,512, 209, and 100 per 100,000 population per year, respectively, in this region. These estimates are significantly higher than the number of reported cases in surveillance in this region. Cases ascertained from active surveillance were also underrepresented in the present passive surveillance, suggesting that complementary surveillance systems, such as laboratory-based active surveillance in sentinel sites, are needed to monitor food safety in Japan.

Deaths associated with bacterial pathogens transmitted commonly through food: foodborne diseases active surveillance network (FoodNet), 1996-2005.

BACKGROUND: Foodborne diseases are typically mild and self-limiting but can cause severe illness and death. We describe the epidemiology of deaths associated with bacterial pathogens using data from the Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet) in the United States. METHODS: We analyzed FoodNet data from 1996-2005 to determine the numbers and rates of deaths occurring within 7-days of laboratory-confirmation. RESULTS: During 1996-2005, FoodNet ascertained 121,536 cases of laboratory-confirmed bacterial infections, including 552 (.5%) deaths, of which 215 (39%) and 168 (30%) were among persons infected with Salmonella and Listeria, respectively. The highest age-specific average annual population mortality rates were in older adults (≥65 years) for all pathogens except Shigella, for which the highest age-specific average annual population mortality rate was in children <5 years (.2/1 million population). Overall, most deaths (58%; 318) occurred in persons ≥65 years old. Listeria had the highest case fatality rate overall (16.9%), followed by Vibrio (5.8%), Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 (0.8%), Salmonella (0.5%), Campylobacter (0.1%), and Shigella (0.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Salmonella and Listeria remain the leading causes of death in the United States due to bacterial pathogens transmitted commonly through food. Most such deaths occurred in persons ≥65 years old, indicating that this age group could benefit from effective food safety interventions.

Bacterial meningitis in the United States, 1998-2007.

BACKGROUND: The rate of bacterial meningitis declined by 55% in the United States in the early 1990s, when the Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) conjugate vaccine for infants was introduced. More recent prevention measures such as the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and universal screening of pregnant women for group B streptococcus (GBS) have further changed the epidemiology of bacterial meningitis. METHODS: We analyzed data on cases of bacterial meningitis reported among residents in eight surveillance areas of the Emerging Infections Programs Network, consisting of approximately 17.4 million persons, during 1998-2007. We defined bacterial meningitis as the presence of H. influenzae, Streptococcus pneumoniae, GBS, Listeria monocytogenes, or Neisseria meningitidis in cerebrospinal fluid or other normally sterile site in association with a clinical diagnosis of meningitis. RESULTS: We identified 3188 patients with bacterial meningitis; of 3155 patients for whom outcome data were available, 466 (14.8%) died. The incidence of meningitis changed by -31% (95% confidence interval [CI], -33 to -29) during the surveillance period, from 2.00 cases per 100,000 population (95% CI, 1.85 to 2.15) in 1998-1999 to 1.38 cases per 100,000 population (95% CI 1.27 to 1.50) in 2006-2007. The median age of patients increased from 30.3 years in 1998-1999 to 41.9 years in 2006-2007 (P<0.001 by the Wilcoxon rank-sum test). The case fatality rate did not change significantly: it was 15.7% in 1998-1999 and 14.3% in 2006-2007 (P=0.50). Of the 1670 cases reported during 2003-2007, S. pneumoniae was the predominant infective species (58.0%), followed by GBS (18.1%), N. meningitidis (13.9%), H. influenzae (6.7%), and L. monocytogenes (3.4%). An estimated 4100 cases and 500 deaths from bacterial meningitis occurred annually in the United States during 2003-2007. CONCLUSIONS: The rates of bacterial meningitis have decreased since 1998, but the disease still often results in death. With the success of pneumococcal and Hib conjugate vaccines in reducing the risk of meningitis among young children, the burden of bacterial meningitis is now borne more by older adults. (Funded by the Emerging Infections Programs, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.).

Antimicrobial and antimotility agent use in persons with shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 infection in FoodNet Sites.

Antimicrobial and antimotility agents are not recommended for the treatment of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 infection. In our study, many persons with Shiga toxin-producing E. coli O157 infection took antimicrobial (62%) and antimotility agents (32%); 43 (29%) of 146 reported commencing antimicrobial treatment after laboratory confirmation. Efforts are needed to promote practice guidelines.

Foodborne illness acquired in the United States--major pathogens.

Estimates of foodborne illness can be used to direct food safety policy and interventions. We used data from active and passive surveillance and other sources to estimate that each year 31 major pathogens acquired in the United States caused 9.4 million episodes of foodborne illness (90% credible interval [CrI] 6.6-12.7 million), 55,961 hospitalizations (90% CrI 39,534-75,741), and 1,351 deaths (90% CrI 712-2,268). Most (58%) illnesses were caused by norovirus, followed by nontyphoidal Salmonella spp. (11%), Clostridium perfringens (10%), and Campylobacter spp. (9%). Leading causes of hospitalization were nontyphoidal Salmonella spp. (35%), norovirus (26%), Campylobacter spp. (15%), and Toxoplasma gondii (8%). Leading causes of death were nontyphoidal Salmonella spp. (28%), T. gondii (24%), Listeria monocytogenes (19%), and norovirus (11%). These estimates cannot be compared with prior (1999) estimates to assess trends because different methods were used. Additional data and more refined methods can improve future estimates.

Foodborne illness acquired in the United States--unspecified agents.

Each year, 31 major known pathogens acquired in the United States caused an estimated 9.4 million episodes of foodborne illness. Additional episodes of illness were caused by unspecified agents, including known agents with insufficient data to estimate agent-specific illness, known agents not yet recognized as causing foodborne illness, substances known to be in food but of unproven pathogenicity, and unknown agents. To estimate these additional illnesses, we used data from surveys, hospital records, and death certificates to estimate illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths from acute gastroenteritis and subtracted illnesses caused by known gastroenteritis pathogens. If the proportions acquired by domestic foodborne transmission were similar to those for known gastroenteritis pathogens, then an estimated 38.4 million (90% credible interval [CrI] 19.8-61.2 million) episodes of domestically acquired foodborne illness were caused by unspecified agents, resulting in 71,878 hospitalizations (90% CrI 9,924-157,340) and 1,686 deaths (90% CrI 369-3,338).

Application of Bayesian techniques to model the burden of human salmonellosis attributable to U.S. food commodities at the point of processing: adaptation of a Danish model.

Mathematical models that estimate the proportion of foodborne illnesses attributable to food commodities at specific points in the food chain may be useful to risk managers and policy makers to formulate public health goals, prioritize interventions, and document the effectiveness of mitigations aimed at reducing illness. Using human surveillance data on laboratory-confirmed Salmonella infections from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Salmonella testing data from U.S. Department of Agriculture Food Safety and Inspection Service's regulatory programs, we developed a point-of-processing foodborne illness attribution model by adapting the Hald Salmonella Bayesian source attribution model. Key model outputs include estimates of the relative proportions of domestically acquired sporadic human Salmonella infections resulting from contamination of raw meat, poultry, and egg products processed in the United States from 1998 through 2003. The current model estimates the relative contribution of chicken (48%), ground beef (28%), turkey (17%), egg products (6%), intact beef (1%), and pork (<1%) across 109 Salmonella serotypes found in food commodities at point of processing. While interpretation of the attribution estimates is constrained by data inputs, the adapted model shows promise and may serve as a basis for a common approach to attribution of human salmonellosis and food safety decision-making in more than one country.