Abrupt permafrost thaw drives spatially heterogeneous soil moisture and carbon dioxide fluxes in upland tundra.

Permafrost thaw causes the seasonally thawed active layer to deepen, causing the Arctic to shift toward carbon release as soil organic matter becomes susceptible to decomposition. Ground subsidence initiated by ice loss can cause these soils to collapse abruptly, rapidly shifting soil moisture as microtopography changes and also accelerating carbon and nutrient mobilization. The uncertainty of soil moisture trajectories during thaw makes it difficult to predict the role of abrupt thaw in suppressing or exacerbating carbon losses. In this study, we investigated the role of shifting soil moisture conditions on carbon dioxide fluxes during a 13-year permafrost warming experiment that exhibited abrupt thaw. Warming deepened the active layer differentially across treatments, leading to variable rates of subsidence and formation of thermokarst depressions. In turn, differential subsidence caused a gradient of moisture conditions, with some plots becoming consistently inundated with water within thermokarst depressions and others exhibiting generally dry, but more variable soil moisture conditions outside of thermokarst depressions. Experimentally induced permafrost thaw initially drove increasing rates of growing season gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Reco ), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) (higher carbon uptake), but the formation of thermokarst depressions began to reverse this trend with a high level of spatial heterogeneity. Plots that subsided at the slowest rate stayed relatively dry and supported higher CO2 fluxes throughout the 13-year experiment, while plots that subsided very rapidly into the center of a thermokarst feature became consistently wet and experienced a rapid decline in growing season GPP, Reco , and NEE (lower carbon uptake or carbon release). These findings indicate that Earth system models, which do not simulate subsidence and often predict drier active layer conditions, likely overestimate net growing season carbon uptake in abruptly thawing landscapes.

Using long-term data from a whole ecosystem warming experiment to identify best spring and autumn phenology models.

Predicting vegetation phenology in response to changing environmental factors is key in understanding feedbacks between the biosphere and the climate system. Experimental approaches extending the temperature range beyond historic climate variability provide a unique opportunity to identify model structures that are best suited to predicting phenological changes under future climate scenarios. Here, we model spring and autumn phenological transition dates obtained from digital repeat photography in a boreal Picea-Sphagnum bog in response to a gradient of whole ecosystem warming manipulations of up to +9°C, using five years of observational data. In spring, seven equally best-performing models for Larix utilized the accumulation of growing degree days as a common driver for temperature forcing. For Picea, the best two models were sequential models requiring winter chilling before spring forcing temperature is accumulated. In shrub, parallel models with chilling and forcing requirements occurring simultaneously were identified as the best models. Autumn models were substantially improved when a CO2 parameter was included. Overall, the combination of experimental manipulations and multiple years of observations combined with variation in weather provided the framework to rule out a large number of candidate models and to identify best spring and autumn models for each plant functional type.

Early spring onset increases carbon uptake more than late fall senescence: modeling future phenological change in a US northern deciduous forest.

In deciduous forests, spring leaf development and fall leaf senescence regulate the timing and duration of photosynthesis and transpiration. Being able to model these dates is therefore critical to accurately representing ecosystem processes in biogeochemical models. Despite this, there has been relatively little effort to improve internal phenology predictions in widely used biogeochemical models. Here, we optimized the phenology algorithms in a regionally developed biogeochemical model (PnET-CN) using phenology data from eight mid-latitude PhenoCam sites in eastern North America. We then performed a sensitivity analysis to determine how the optimization affected future predictions of carbon, water, and nitrogen cycling at Bartlett Experimental Forest, New Hampshire. Compared to the original PnET-CN phenology models, our new spring and fall models resulted in shorter season lengths and more abrupt transitions that were more representative of observations. The new phenology models affected daily estimates and interannual variability of modeled carbon exchange, but they did not have a large influence on the magnitude or long-term trends of annual totals. Under future climate projections, our new phenology models predict larger shifts in season length in the fall (1.1-3.2 days decade-1) compared to the spring (0.9-1.5 days decade-1). However, for every day the season was longer, spring had twice the effect on annual carbon and water exchange totals compared to the fall. These findings highlight the importance of accurately modeling season length for future projections of carbon and water cycling.

Soil moisture impacts the tundra carbon balance in a changing climate.

There is growing recognition that soil moisture plays a crucial role in regulating the response of tundra carbon cycling to climate warming.

Microbiome assembly in thawing permafrost and its feedbacks to climate.

The physical and chemical changes that accompany permafrost thaw directly influence the microbial communities that mediate the decomposition of formerly frozen organic matter, leading to uncertainty in permafrost-climate feedbacks. Although changes to microbial metabolism and community structure are documented following thaw, the generality of post-thaw assembly patterns across permafrost soils of the world remains uncertain, limiting our ability to predict biogeochemistry and microbial community responses to climate change. Based on our review of the Arctic microbiome, permafrost microbiology, and community ecology, we propose that Assembly Theory provides a framework to better understand thaw-mediated microbiome changes and the implications for community function and climate feedbacks. This framework posits that the prevalence of deterministic or stochastic processes indicates whether the community is well-suited to thrive in changing environmental conditions. We predict that on a short timescale and following high-disturbance thaw (e.g., thermokarst), stochasticity dominates post-thaw microbiome assembly, suggesting that functional predictions will be aided by detailed information about the microbiome. At a longer timescale and lower-intensity disturbance (e.g., active layer deepening), deterministic processes likely dominate, making environmental parameters sufficient for predicting function. We propose that the contribution of stochastic and deterministic processes to post-thaw microbiome assembly depends on the characteristics of the thaw disturbance, as well as characteristics of the microbial community, such as the ecological and phylogenetic breadth of functional guilds, their functional redundancy, and biotic interactions. These propagate across space and time, potentially providing a means for predicting the microbial forcing of greenhouse gas feedbacks to global climate change.

Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change.

We conducted a model-based assessment of changes in permafrost area and carbon storage for simulations driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections between 2010 and 2299 for the northern permafrost region. All models simulating carbon represented soil with depth, a critical structural feature needed to represent the permafrost carbon-climate feedback, but that is not a universal feature of all climate models. Between 2010 and 2299, simulations indicated losses of permafrost between 3 and 5 million km2 for the RCP4.5 climate and between 6 and 16 million km2 for the RCP8.5 climate. For the RCP4.5 projection, cumulative change in soil carbon varied between 66-Pg C (1015-g carbon) loss to 70-Pg C gain. For the RCP8.5 projection, losses in soil carbon varied between 74 and 652 Pg C (mean loss, 341 Pg C). For the RCP4.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were largely responsible for the overall projected net gains in ecosystem carbon by 2299 (8- to 244-Pg C gains). In contrast, for the RCP8.5 projection, gains in vegetation carbon were not great enough to compensate for the losses of carbon projected by four of the five models; changes in ecosystem carbon ranged from a 641-Pg C loss to a 167-Pg C gain (mean, 208-Pg C loss). The models indicate that substantial net losses of ecosystem carbon would not occur until after 2100. This assessment suggests that effective mitigation efforts during the remainder of this century could attenuate the negative consequences of the permafrost carbon-climate feedback.

Nonlinear CO2 flux response to 7 years of experimentally induced permafrost thaw.

Rapid Arctic warming is expected to increase global greenhouse gas concentrations as permafrost thaw exposes immense stores of frozen carbon (C) to microbial decomposition. Permafrost thaw also stimulates plant growth, which could offset C loss. Using data from 7 years of experimental Air and Soil warming in moist acidic tundra, we show that Soil warming had a much stronger effect on CO2 flux than Air warming. Soil warming caused rapid permafrost thaw and increased ecosystem respiration (Reco ), gross primary productivity (GPP), and net summer CO2 storage (NEE). Over 7 years Reco , GPP, and NEE also increased in Control (i.e., ambient plots), but this change could be explained by slow thaw in Control areas. In the initial stages of thaw, Reco , GPP, and NEE increased linearly with thaw across all treatments, despite different rates of thaw. As thaw in Soil warming continued to increase linearly, ground surface subsidence created saturated microsites and suppressed Reco , GPP, and NEE. However Reco and GPP remained high in areas with large Eriophorum vaginatum biomass. In general NEE increased with thaw, but was more strongly correlated with plant biomass than thaw, indicating that higher Reco in deeply thawed areas during summer months was balanced by GPP. Summer CO2 flux across treatments fit a single quadratic relationship that captured the functional response of CO2 flux to thaw, water table depth, and plant biomass. These results demonstrate the importance of indirect thaw effects on CO2 flux: plant growth and water table dynamics. Nonsummer Reco models estimated that the area was an annual CO2 source during all years of observation. Nonsummer CO2 loss in warmer, more deeply thawed soils exceeded the increases in summer GPP, and thawed tundra was a net annual CO2 source.

A pan-Arctic synthesis of CH4 and CO2 production from anoxic soil incubations.

Permafrost thaw can alter the soil environment through changes in soil moisture, frequently resulting in soil saturation, a shift to anaerobic decomposition, and changes in the plant community. These changes, along with thawing of previously frozen organic material, can alter the form and magnitude of greenhouse gas production from permafrost ecosystems. We synthesized existing methane (CH4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO2 ) production measurements from anaerobic incubations of boreal and tundra soils from the geographic permafrost region to evaluate large-scale controls of anaerobic CO2 and CH4 production and compare the relative importance of landscape-level factors (e.g., vegetation type and landscape position), soil properties (e.g., pH, depth, and soil type), and soil environmental conditions (e.g., temperature and relative water table position). We found fivefold higher maximum CH4 production per gram soil carbon from organic soils than mineral soils. Maximum CH4 production from soils in the active layer (ground that thaws and refreezes annually) was nearly four times that of permafrost per gram soil carbon, and CH4 production per gram soil carbon was two times greater from sites without permafrost than sites with permafrost. Maximum CH4 and median anaerobic CO2 production decreased with depth, while CO2 :CH4 production increased with depth. Maximum CH4 production was highest in soils with herbaceous vegetation and soils that were either consistently or periodically inundated. This synthesis identifies the need to consider biome, landscape position, and vascular/moss vegetation types when modeling CH4 production in permafrost ecosystems and suggests the need for longer-term anaerobic incubations to fully capture CH4 dynamics. Our results demonstrate that as climate warms in arctic and boreal regions, rates of anaerobic CO2 and CH4 production will increase, not only as a result of increased temperature, but also from shifts in vegetation and increased ground saturation that will accompany permafrost thaw.

Circumpolar assessment of permafrost C quality and its vulnerability over time using long-term incubation data.

High-latitude ecosystems store approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C), which is twice as much C as is currently contained in the atmosphere. Permafrost thaw and subsequent microbial decomposition of permafrost organic matter could add large amounts of C to the atmosphere, thereby influencing the global C cycle. The rates at which C is being released from the permafrost zone at different soil depths and across different physiographic regions are poorly understood but crucial in understanding future changes in permafrost C storage with climate change. We assessed the inherent decomposability of C from the permafrost zone by assembling a database of long-term (>1 year) aerobic soil incubations from 121 individual samples from 23 high-latitude ecosystems located across the northern circumpolar permafrost zone. Using a three-pool (i.e., fast, slow and passive) decomposition model, we estimated pool sizes for C fractions with different turnover times and their inherent decomposition rates using a reference temperature of 5 °C. Fast cycling C accounted for less than 5% of all C in both organic and mineral soils whereas the pool size of slow cycling C increased with C : N. Turnover time at 5 °C of fast cycling C typically was below 1 year, between 5 and 15 years for slow turning over C, and more than 500 years for passive C. We project that between 20 and 90% of the organic C could potentially be mineralized to CO2 within 50 incubation years at a constant temperature of 5 °C, with vulnerability to loss increasing in soils with higher C : N. These results demonstrate the variation in the vulnerability of C stored in permafrost soils based on inherent differences in organic matter decomposability, and point toward C : N as an index of decomposability that has the potential to be used to scale permafrost C loss across landscapes.

Separating soil CO2 efflux into C-pool-specific decay rates via inverse analysis of soil incubation data.

Soil organic matter (SOM) is heterogeneous in structure and has been considered to consist of various pools with different intrinsic turnover rates. Although those pools have been conceptually expressed in models and analyzed according to soil physical and chemical properties, separation of SOM into component pools is still challenging. In this study, we conducted inverse analyses with data from a long-term (385 days) incubation experiment with two types of soil (from plant interspace and from underneath plants) to deconvolute soil carbon (C) efflux into different source pools. We analyzed the two datasets with one-, two- and three-pool models and used probability density functions as a criterion to judge the best model to fit the datasets. Our results indicated that soil C release trajectories over the 385 days of the incubation study were best modeled with a two-pool C model. For both soil types, released C within the first 10 days of the incubation study originated from the labile pool. Decomposition of C in the recalcitrant pool was modeled to contribute to the total CO2 efflux by 9-11 % at the beginning of the incubation. At the end of the experiment, 75-85 % of the initial soil organic carbon (SOC) was modeled to be released over the incubation period. Our modeling analysis also indicated that the labile C-pool in the soil underneath plants was larger than that in soil from interspace. This deconvolution analysis was based on information contained in incubation data to separate carbon pools and can facilitate integration of results from incubation experiments into ecosystem models with improved parameterization.

Expanding leaves of mature deciduous forest trees rapidly become autotrophic.

Emerging leaves in evergreen tree species are supplied with carbon (C) from the previous year's foliage. In deciduous trees, no older leaves are present, and the early phase of leaf development must rely on C reserves from other tissues. How soon developing leaves become autotrophic and switch from being C sinks to sources has rarely been studied in mature forest trees, and simultaneous comparisons of species are scarce. Using a canopy crane and a simple (13)CO(2)-pulse-labelling technique, we demonstrate that young leaves of mature trees in three European deciduous species (Fagus sylvatica L., Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl., Tilia platyphyllos Scop.) start assimilating CO(2) at a very early stage of development (10-50% expanded). One month after labelling, all leaves were still strongly (13)C enriched, suggesting that recent photosynthates had been incorporated into slow turnover pools such as cellulose or lignin and thus had contributed to leaf growth. In line with previous studies performed at the same site, we found stronger incorporation of recent photosynthates into growing tissues of T. platyphyllos compared with F. sylvatica and Q. petraea. Non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) concentrations analysed for one of the three study species (F. sylvatica) showed that sugar and starch pools rapidly increased during leaf development, suggesting that newly developed leaves soon produce more NSC than can be used for growth. In conclusion, our findings indicate that expanding leaves of mature deciduous trees become C autonomous at an early stage of development despite the presence of vast amounts of mobile carbohydrate reserves.

Hemicellulose concentration and composition in plant cell walls under extreme carbon source-sink imbalances.

Hemicelluloses account for one-quarter of the global dry plant biomass and therefore are the second most abundant biomass fraction after cellulose. Despite their quantitative significance, the responsiveness of hemicelluloses to atmospheric carbon oversupply is still largely unknown, although hemicelluloses could serve as carbon sinks with increasing CO(2) concentrations. This study aimed at clarifying the role hemicelluloses play as carbon sinks, analogous to non-structural carbohydrates (NSC), by experimentally manipulating the plants' carbon supply. Sixteen plant species from four different plant functional types (grasses, herbs, seedlings of broad-leaved trees and conifers) were grown for 2 months in greenhouses at either extremely low (140 ppm), medium (280 ppm) or high (560 ppm) atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, thus inducing situations of massive C-limitation or -oversupply. Above and belowground biomass as well as NSC significantly increased in all species and tissues with increasing CO(2) concentrations. Increasing CO(2) concentrations had no significant effect on total hemicellulose concentrations in leaves and woody tissues in all species, except for two out of four grass species, where hemicellulose concentrations increased with atmospheric CO(2) supply. Despite the overall stable total hemicellulose concentrations, the monosaccharide spectra of hemicelluloses showed a significant increase in glucose monomers in leaves of woody species as C-supply increased. In summary, total hemicellulose concentrations in de novo built biomass seem to be largely unaffected by changed atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, while significant increases of hemicellulose-derived glucose with increasing CO(2) concentrations in leaves of broad-leaved and conifer tree seedlings showed differential responses among the different hemicellulose classes in response to varying CO(2) concentrations.

Quantification and monosaccharide composition of hemicelluloses from different plant functional types.

Hemicelluloses are the second most abundant polysaccharide in nature after cellulose. So far, the chemical heterogeneity of cell-wall hemicelluloses and the relatively large sample-volume required in existing methods represent major obstacles for large-scale, cross-species analyses of this important plant compound. Here, we apply a new micro-extraction method to analyse hemicelluloses and the ratio of 'cellulose and lignin' to hemicelluloses in different tissues of 28 plant species comprising four plant functional types (broad-leaved trees, conifers, grasses and herbs). For this study, the fiber analysis after Van Soest was modified to enable the simultaneous quantitative and qualitative measurements of hemicelluloses in small sample volumes. Total hemicellulose concentrations differed markedly among functional types and tissues with highest concentration in sapwood of broad-leaved trees (31% d.m. in Fraxinus excelsior) and lowest concentration between 10 and 15% d.m. in leaves and bark of woody species as well as in roots of herbs. As for total hemicellulose concentrations, plant functional types and tissues exhibited characteristic ratios between the sum of cellulose plus lignin and hemicelluloses, with very high ratios (>4) in bark of trees and low ratios (<2) in all investigated leaves. Additional HPLC analyses of hydrolysed hemicelluloses showed xylose to be the dominant hemicellulose monosaccharide in tissues of broad-leaved trees, grasses and herbs while coniferous species showed higher amounts of arabinose, galactose and mannose. Overall, the micro-extraction method permitted for the simultaneous determination of hemicelluloses of various tissues and plant functional types which exhibited characteristic hemicellulose concentrations and monosaccharide patterns.

Short-term dynamics of nonstructural carbohydrates and hemicelluloses in young branches of temperate forest trees during bud break.

Nonstructural carbohydrates (NSC) are the most important C reserves in the tissues of deciduous and evergreen tree species. Besides NSC, cell-wall hemicelluloses as the second most abundant polysaccharides in plants have often been discussed to serve as additional mobile carbon (C) reserves during periods of enhanced carbon-sink activities. To assess the significance of hemicelluloses as mobile carbon reserves, branches of two deciduous (Carpinus betulus L. and Fagus sylvatica L.) and two evergreen (Picea abies L. and Pinus sylvestris L.) tree species were sampled in a mature mixed forest stand in short intervals before and during bud break to assess NSC and hemicellulose concentrations in response to the increased carbon demand during bud break. Starch concentrations in branch sapwood of deciduous trees strongly decreased immediately before bud break and increased after bud break. In both evergreen species, only small changes of NSC were found in branch sapwood. However, 1-year-old needles exhibited a significant increase in starch concentration shortly before bud break which declined again after flushing. Hemicellulose concentrations (on an NSC-free dry matter basis) in branch sapwood of Carpinus decreased significantly shortly before bud break, but increased again after bud break. Contrarily, in Fagus branch sapwood, hemicellulose concentrations remained constant during bud break. Moderate increases of total hemicellulose concentrations before bud break were found in 1-year-old needles of both conifers, which could be explained by an accumulation of glucose units within the hemicellulose fraction. Overall, cell-wall hemicelluloses appeared to respond in a species-specific manner to the enhanced carbon demand during bud break. Hemicelluloses in branch sapwood of Carpinus and in 1-year-old needles of conifers likely act as additional carbon reserves similar to starch.