Multi-trait evolution of farmer varieties of bread wheat after cultivation in contrasting organic farming systems in Europe.

Because of the lack of varieties for organic agriculture, associations of organic farmers in several European countries have begun cultivating landraces and historic varieties, effectively practicing in situ conservation of agricultural biodiversity. To promote agrobiodiversity conservation, a special list for "conservation varieties" was implemented in 2008 by the EU because for any exchange and marketing of seeds in the EU, a variety must be registered in an official catalog. Our study aimed at improving knowledge on the phenotypic diversity and evolution of such varieties when cultivated on organic farms in Europe, in order to better define their specific characteristics and the implications for the registration process. We assessed multi-trait phenotypic evolution in eight European landraces and historic varieties of bread wheat and in two pureline variety checks, each grown by eight organic farmers over 2 years and then evaluated in a common garden experiment at an organic research farm. Measurements on each farmer's version of each variety included several standard evaluation criteria for assessing distinctness, uniformity and stability for variety registration. Significant phenotypic differentiation was found among farmers' versions of each variety. Some varieties showed considerable variation among versions while others showed fewer phenotypic changes, even in comparison to the two checks. Although farmers' variety would not satisfy uniformity or stability criteria as defined in the catalog evaluation requirements, each variety remained distinct when assessed using multivariate analysis. The amount of differentiation may be related to the initial genetic diversity within landraces and historic varieties.

Prediction uncertainty of environmental change effects on temperate European biodiversity.

Observed patterns of species richness at landscape scale (gamma diversity) cannot always be attributed to a specific set of explanatory variables, but rather different alternative explanatory statistical models of similar quality may exist. Therefore predictions of the effects of environmental change (such as in climate or land cover) on biodiversity may differ considerably, depending on the chosen set of explanatory variables. Here we use multimodel prediction to evaluate effects of climate, land-use intensity and landscape structure on species richness in each of seven groups of organisms (plants, birds, spiders, wild bees, ground beetles, true bugs and hoverflies) in temperate Europe. We contrast this approach with traditional best-model predictions, which we show, using cross-validation, to have inferior prediction accuracy. Multimodel inference changed the importance of some environmental variables in comparison with the best model, and accordingly gave deviating predictions for environmental change effects. Overall, prediction uncertainty for the multimodel approach was only slightly higher than that of the best model, and absolute changes in predicted species richness were also comparable. Richness predictions varied generally more for the impact of climate change than for land-use change at the coarse scale of our study. Overall, our study indicates that the uncertainty introduced to environmental change predictions through uncertainty in model selection both qualitatively and quantitatively affects species richness projections.