Contribution of avoidable mortality to life expectancy inequalities in Wales: a decomposition by age and by cause between 2002 and 2020.

OBJECTIVES: To explore the contribution of avoidable mortality to life expectancy inequalities in Wales during 2002-2020. DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING: Wales, 2002-20, including early data from the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: We used routine statistics for 2002-2020 on population and deaths in Wales stratified by age, sex, deprivation quintile and cause of death. We estimated the contribution of avoidable causes of death and specific age-categories using the Arriaga decomposition method to highlight priorities for action. RESULTS: Life expectancy inequalities rose 2002-20 amongst both sexes, driven by serial decreases in life expectancy amongst the most deprived quintiles. The contributions of amenable and preventable mortality to life expectancy inequalities changed relatively little between 2002 and 2020, with larger rises in non-avoidable causes. Key avoidable mortality conditions driving the life expectancy gap in the most recent period of 2018-2020 for females were circulatory disease, cancers, respiratory disease and alcohol- and drug-related deaths, and also injuries for males. CONCLUSIONS: Life expectancy inequalities widened during 2002-20, driven by deteriorating life expectancy in the most deprived quintiles. Sustained investment in prevention post-COVID-19 is needed to address growing health inequity in Wales; there remains a role for the National Health Service in ensuring equitable healthcare access to alongside wider policies that promote equity.

A global, historical database of tuna, billfish, and saury larval distributions.

Knowing the distribution of fish larvae can inform fisheries science and resource management in several ways, by: 1) providing information on spawning areas; 2) identifying key areas to manage and conserve; and 3) helping to understand how fish populations are affected by anthropogenic pressures, such as overfishing and climate change. With the expansion of industrial fishing activity after 1945, there was increased sampling of fish larvae to help better understand variation in fish stocks. However, large-scale larval records are rare and often unavailable. Here we digitize data from Nishikawa et al. (1985), which were collected from 1956-1981 and are near-global (50°N-50°S), seasonal distribution maps of fish larvae of 18 mainly commercial pelagic taxa of the families Scombridae, Xiphiidae, Istiophoridae, Scombrolabracidae, and Scomberesocidae. Data were collected from the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans. We present four seasonal 1° × 1° resolution maps per taxa representing larval abundance per grid cell and highlight some of the main patterns. Data are made available as delimited text, raster, and vector files.

Stock delineation of striped snakehead, Channa striata using multivariate generalised linear models with otolith shape and chemistry data.

Otoliths are commonly used to discriminate between fish stocks, through both elemental composition and otolith shape. Typical studies also have a large number of elemental compositions and shape measures relative to the number of otolith samples, with these measures exhibiting strong mean-variance relationships. These properties make otolith composition and shape data highly suitable for use within a multivariate generalised linear model (MGLM) framework, yet MGLMs have never been applied to otolith data. Here we apply both a traditional distance based permutational multivariate analysis of variance (PERMANOVA) and MGLMs to a case study of striped snakehead (Channa striata) in India. We also introduce the Tweedie and gamma distributions as suitable error structures for the MGLMs, drawing similarities to the properties of Biomass data. We demonstrate that otolith elemental data and combined otolith elemental and shape data violate the assumption of homogeneity of variance of PERMANOVA and may give misleading results, while the assumptions of the MGLM with Tweedie and gamma distributions are shown to be satisfied and are appropriate for both otolith shape and elemental composition data. Consistent differences between three groups of C. striata were identified using otolith shape, otolith chemistry and a combined otolith shape and chemistry dataset. This suggests that future research should be conducted into whether there are demographic differences between these groups which may influence management considerations. The MGLM method is widely applicable and could be applied to any multivariate otolith shape or elemental composition dataset.

Reduced exploitation is associated with an altered sex ratio and larger length at maturity in southwest Pacific (east Australian) Pomatomus saltatrix.

Pomatomus saltatrix is an important recreational fishing species with seven major populations worldwide. The reproductive biology of the southwest Pacific Ocean (east Australian) population is uncertain, with both an extended spawning and multiple spawning periods previously hypothesised. Here we demonstrate an altered sex ratio biased towards females and a larger length at 50% maturity (L50) compared to those recorded for the population 40 years ago, before comprehensive management strategies were implemented. We also report a second, previously undescribed, late-summer spawning event which was identified by analysing patterns in a gonadosomatic index across the whole population and an historical larval fish database. P. saltatrix are capable of spawning multiple times per season with estimates of batch fecundity ranging from 99,488 to 1,424,425 eggs per fish. When combined with the length frequency distribution of the population, the majority of eggs (64%) were shown to be produced by fish ≤40 cm fork length (FL). L50 was estimated at 30.2 and 31.5 cm FL for male and female P. saltatrix respectively, 4 cm larger than 40 years ago. The sex ratio of the population was found to have significantly shifted over the last 40 years from an equal sex ratio to a female dominated population (1.58 females:1 male). These dramatic alterations to the sex ratio and L50 highlights the value of monitoring the reproductive biology of exploited fish populations to ensure that management plans remain appropriate.

The influence of ontogenetic diet variation on consumption rate estimates: a marine example.

Consumption rates are the foundation of trophic ecology, yet bioenergetics models used to estimate these rates can lack realism by not incorporating the ontogeny of diet. We constructed a bioenergetics model of a marine predatory fish (tailor, Pomatomus saltatrix) that incorporated high-resolution ontogenetic diet variation, and compared consumption estimates to those derived from typical bioenergetics models that do not consider ontogenetic diet variation. We found tailor consumption was over- or under-estimated by ~5-25% when only including the most common prey item. This error was due to a positive relationship between mean prey energy density and predator body size. Since high-resolution diet data isn't always available, we also simulated how increasing dietary information progressively influenced consumption rate estimates. The greatest improvement in consumption rate estimates occurred when diet variation of 2-3 stanzas (1-2 juvenile stanzas, and adults) was included, with at least 5-6 most common prey types per stanza. We recommend increased emphasis on incorporating the ontogeny of diet and prey energy density in consumption rate estimates, especially for species with spatially segregated life stages or variable diets. A small-moderate increase in the resolution of dietary information can greatly benefit the accuracy of estimated consumption rates. We present a method of incorporating variable prey energy density into bioenergetics models.