Epidemiology and Outcomes of Critical Illness and Novel Predictors of Mortality in an Ethiopian Medical Intensive Care Unit.

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) bear most of the global burden of critical illness. Managing this burden requires improved understanding of epidemiology and outcomes in LMIC intensive care units (ICUs), including LMIC-specific mortality prediction scores. This study was a retrospective observational study at Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, examining all consecutive medical ICU admissions from June 2014 to April 2015. The primary outcome was ICU mortality; secondary outcomes were prolonged ICU stay and prolonged mechanical ventilation. ICU mortality prediction models were created using multivariable logistic regression and compared with the Mortality Probability Model-II (MPM-II). Associations with secondary outcomes were examined with multivariable logistic regression. There were 198 admissions during the study period; mortality was 35%. Age, shock on admission, mechanical ventilation, human immunodeficiency virus, and Glasgow Coma Scale ≤8 were associated with ICU mortality. The receiver operating characteristic curve for this 5-factor model had an AUC of 0.8205 versus 0.7468 for MPM-II, favoring the simplified new model. Mechanical ventilation and lack of shock were associated with prolonged ICU stays. Mortality in an LMIC medical ICU was high. This study examines an LMIC medical ICU population, showing a simplified prediction model may predict mortality as well as complex models.

Assessment of hypertension and other factors associated with the severity of disease in COVID-19 pneumonia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: A case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Various reports suggested that pre-existing medical illnesses, including hypertension and other demographic, clinical, and laboratory factors, could pose an increased risk of disease severity and mortality among COVID-19 patients. This study aimed to assess the relation of hypertension and other factors to the severity of COVID-19 pneumonia in patients discharged from Eka Kotebe Hospital in June-September, 2020. METHODS: This is a single-center case-control study of 265 adult patients discharged alive or dead, 75 with a course of severe COVID-19 for the cases arm and 190 with the non-severe disease for the control arm. Three age and sex-matched controls were selected randomly for each patient on the case arm. Chi-square, multivariable binary logistic regression, and odds ratio (OR) with a 95% confidence interval was used to assess the association between the various factors and the severity of the disease. A p-value of <0.05 is considered statistically significant. RESULTS: Of the 265 study participants, 80% were male. The median age was 43 IQR(36-60) years. Both arms had similar demographic characteristics. Hypertension was strongly associated with the severity of COVID-19 pneumonia based on effect outcome adjustment (AOR = 2.93, 95% CI 1.489, 5.783, p-value = 0.002), similarly, having diabetes mellitus (AOR = 3.17, 95% CI 1.374, 7.313, p-value<0.007), chronic cardiac disease (AOR = 4.803, 95% CI 1.238-18.636, p<0.023), and an increase in a pulse rate (AOR = 1.041, 95% CI 1.017, 1.066, p-value = 0.001) were found to have a significant association with the severity of COVID-19 pneumonia. CONCLUSIONS: Hypertension was associated with the severity of COVID-19 pneumonia, and so were diabetes mellitus, chronic cardiac disease, and an increase in pulse rate.

Clinical Characteristics and Treatment Outcomes of COVID-19 Patients at Eka Kotebe General Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Data from much of Africa are still scarce on the clinical characteristics, outcomes of treatment, and factors associated with disease severity and mortality of COVID-19. A cross-sectional study was conducted at Eka Kotebe General Hospital, Ethiopia's first COVID-19 treatment center. All consecutive symptomatic SARS CoV-2 RT-PCR positive individuals, aged 18 and older, admitted to the hospital between March 13 and September 16, 2020, were included. Of the total 463 cases, 319 (68.9%) were male. The median age was 45 years (interquartile range 32-62). The most common three symptoms were cough (69%), shortness of breath (SOB; 44%), and fatigue (37%). Hypertension was the most prevalent comorbidity, followed by diabetes mellitus. The age groups 40 to 59 and ≥ 60 were more likely to have severe disease compared with those < 40 years of age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 3.45, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.88-6.31 and aOR = 3.46, 95% CI: 1.91-6.90, respectively). Other factors associated with disease severity included the presence of any malignancy (aOR = 4.64, 95% CI: 1.32-16.33) and SOB (aOR = 3.83, 95% CI: 2.35-6.25). The age group ≥ 60 was significantly associated with greater in-hospital mortality compared with those < 40 years. In addition, the presence of any malignancy, SOB, and vomiting were associated with higher odds of mortality. In Ethiopia, most COVID-19 patients were male and presented with cough, SOB, and fatigue. Older age, any malignancy, and SOB were associated with disease severity; these factors, in addition to vomiting, also predicted mortality.

In COVID-19 Patients Who Suffer In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest, Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Outcomes May Be Impacted by Arrest Etiology and Local Pandemic Conditions.

OBJECTIVES: The utility and risks to providers of performing cardiopulmonary resuscitation after in-hospital cardiac arrest in COVID-19 patients have been questioned. Additionally, there are discrepancies in reported COVID-19 in-hospital cardiac arrest survival rates. We describe outcomes after cardiopulmonary resuscitation for in-hospital cardiac arrest in two COVID-19 patient cohorts. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: New York-Presbyterian Hospital/Columbia University Irving Medical Center in New York, NY. PATIENTS: Those admitted with COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and May 31, 2020, as well as between March 1, 2021, and May 31, 2021, who received resuscitation after in-hospital cardiac arrest. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENT AND MAIN RESULTS: Among 103 patients with coronavirus disease 2019 who were resuscitated after in-hospital cardiac arrest in spring 2020, most self-identified as Hispanic/Latino or African American, 35 (34.0%) had return of spontaneous circulation for at least 20 minutes, and 15 (14.6%) survived to 30 days post-arrest. Compared with nonsurvivors, 30-day survivors experienced in-hospital cardiac arrest later (day 22 vs day 7; p = 0.008) and were more likely to have had an acute respiratory event preceding in-hospital cardiac arrest (93.3% vs 27.3%; p < 0.001). Among 30-day survivors, 11 (73.3%) survived to hospital discharge, at which point 8 (72.7%) had Cerebral Performance Category scores of 1 or 2. Among 26 COVID-19 patients resuscitated after in-hospital cardiac arrest in spring 2021, 15 (57.7%) had return of spontaneous circulation for at least 20 minutes, 3 (11.5%) survived to 30 days post in-hospital cardiac arrest, and 2 (7.7%) survived to hospital discharge, both with Cerebral Performance Category scores of 2 or less. Those who survived to 30 days post in-hospital cardiac arrest were younger (46.3 vs 67.8; p = 0.03), but otherwise there were no significant differences between groups. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with COVID-19 who received cardiopulmonary resuscitation after in-hospital cardiac arrest had low survival rates. Our findings additionally show return of spontaneous circulation rates in these patients may be impacted by hospital strain and that patients with in-hospital cardiac arrest preceded by acute respiratory events might be more likely to survive to 30 days, suggesting Advanced Cardiac Life Support efforts may be more successful in this subpopulation.

In-Person vs Electronic Directly Observed Therapy for Tuberculosis Treatment Adherence: A Randomized Noninferiority Trial.

Importance: Electronic directly observed therapy (DOT) is used increasingly as an alternative to in-person DOT for monitoring tuberculosis treatment. Evidence supporting its efficacy is limited. Objective: To determine whether electronic DOT can attain a level of treatment observation as favorable as in-person DOT. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a 2-period crossover, noninferiority trial with initial randomization to electronic or in-person DOT at the time outpatient tuberculosis treatment began. The trial enrolled 216 participants with physician-suspected or bacteriologically confirmed tuberculosis from July 2017 to October 2019 in 4 clinics operated by the New York City Health Department. Data analysis was conducted between March 2020 and April 2021. Interventions: Participants were asked to complete 20 medication doses using 1 DOT method, then switched methods for another 20 doses. With in-person therapy, participants chose clinic or community-based DOT; with electronic DOT, participants chose live video-conferencing or recorded videos. Main Outcomes and Measures: Difference between the percentage of medication doses participants were observed to completely ingest with in-person DOT and with electronic DOT. Noninferiority was demonstrated if the upper 95% confidence limit of the difference was 10% or less. We estimated the percentage of completed doses using a logistic mixed effects model, run in 4 modes: modified intention-to-treat, per-protocol, per-protocol with 85% or more of doses conforming to the randomization assignment, and empirical. Confidence intervals were estimated by bootstrapping (with 1000 replicates). Results: There were 173 participants in each crossover period (median age, 40 years [range, 16-86 years]; 140 [66%] men; 80 [37%] Asian and Pacific Islander, 43 [20%] Black, and 71 [33%] Hispanic individuals) evaluated with the model in the modified intention-to-treat analytic mode. The percentage of completed doses with in-person DOT was 87.2% (95% CI, 84.6%-89.9%) vs 89.8% (95% CI, 87.5%-92.1%) with electronic DOT. The percentage difference was -2.6% (95% CI, -4.8% to -0.3%), consistent with a conclusion of noninferiority. The 3 other analytic modes yielded equivalent conclusions, with percentage differences ranging from -4.9% to -1.9%. Conclusions and Relevance: In this trial, the percentage of completed doses under electronic DOT was noninferior to that under in-person DOT. This trial provides evidence supporting the efficacy of this digital adherence technology, and for the inclusion of electronic DOT in the standard of care. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03266003.

Clinical Characteristics and Molecular Profiles of Lung Cancer in Ethiopia.

INTRODUCTION: Lung cancer is the most common cause of cancer deaths worldwide, accounting for 1.8 million deaths each year. Only 20% of lung cancer cases are reported to occur in low- and middle-income countries. An estimated 1.5% of all Ethiopian cancers involved the lung; however, no nationwide cancer registry exists in Ethiopia. Thus, accurate data on clinical history, histopathology, molecular characteristics, and risk factors for lung cancer are not available. The aim of this study was to describe the clinical, radiologic, and pathologic characteristics, including available molecular profiles, for lung cancer at Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital (TASH), the main tertiary referral center in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted at TASH among 146 patients with pathologically confirmed primary lung cancer, diagnosed from 2015 to 2019 and recorded in the Addis Ababa Cancer Registry at TASH. Clinical data were extracted from patient medical records, entered into a Research Electronic Data Capture database, and analyzed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences statistical software. Variables collected included sociodemographics, personal exposures, comorbidities, clinical manifestations at presentation, chest imaging results, diagnostic procedures performed, histopathological classification, cancer staging, and type of treatment (if any). A subset of lung biopsies fixed in formalin for 2 to 7 days, which could be retrieved from the files of the Pathology Department of TASH, were reviewed, and molecular analysis was performed using next-generation sequencing to identify the tumor-oncogenic drivers. RESULTS: Among the 146 patients studied, the mean (SD) age was 54 plus or minus 13 years; 61.6% (n = 90) were male and 25.3% (n = 37) had a history of tobacco use. The most common clinical manifestations included cough (88.4%, n = 129), chest pain (60.3%, n = 88), and dyspnea (53.4%, n = 78). The median duration of any symptoms was 6 months (interquartile range: 3-12 mo). The most common radiologic features were lung mass (84.9%, n = 129) and pleural effusion (52.7%, n = 77). Adenocarcinoma accounted for 35.7% of lung cancers (n = 52) and squamous cell carcinoma 19.2% (n = 28) from those specimens was reported. Among patients on whom staging of lung cancer was documented, 92.2% (n = 95) of the subjects presented at advanced stages (stages III and IV). EGFR mutation, exons 19 and 20, was found in 7 of 14 tissue blocks analyzed. No specific risk factors were identified, possibly reflecting the relatively small sample size and limited exposures. CONCLUSIONS: There are marked differences in the presentation, risk factors, and molecular characteristics of lung cancer in Ethiopia as compared with other African and non-African countries. Adenocarcinoma was the most common histologic type of lung cancer detected in our study, similar to findings from other international studies. Nevertheless, compared with high-income countries, lung cancer in Ethiopia presents at a younger age, a later stage, and without considerable personal tobacco use. The relatively higher prevalence of EGFR mutation, from the limited molecular analyses, suggests that factors other than smoking history, such as exposure to biomass fuel, may be a more important risk factor. Country-specific screening guidelines and treatment protocols, in addition to a national tumor registry and greater molecular mutation analyses, are needed to improve prevention and management of lung cancer in Ethiopia.

Prevalence and risk factors of pulmonary hypertension among adult patients with HIV infection in Ethiopia.

Globally, non-communicable diseases are increasing in people living with HIV. Pulmonary hypertension is a rare non-communicable disease in people living with HIV with a reported prevalence of <1%. However, data on pulmonary hypertension in people living with HIV from Africa are scarce and are non-existent from Ethiopia. This study aimed to examine the prevalence and severity of echocardiographic pulmonary hypertension and risk factors associated with pulmonary hypertension in people living with HIV in Ethiopia. A total of 315 consecutive adult people living with HIV followed at the Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital HIV Referral Clinic were enrolled from June 2018 to February 2019. Those with established pulmonary hypertension of known causes were excluded. A structured questionnaire was used to collect data on demographics, respiratory symptoms, physical findings, physician-diagnosed lung disease, and possible risk factors. Pulmonary hypertension was defined by a tricuspid regurgitant velocity of ≥2.9 m/sec on transthoracic echocardiography. A tricuspid regurgitant velocity ≥3.5, which translates into a pulmonary arterial pressure/right ventricular systolic pressure of ≥50 mmHg, was considered moderate-to-severe pulmonary hypertension. The mean age of the participants was 44.5 ± 9.8 years and 229 (72.7%) were females. Pulmonary hypertension was diagnosed in 44 (14.0%) of participants, of whom 9 (20.5%) had moderate-to-severe disease. In those with pulmonary hypertension, 17 (38.6%) were symptomatic: exertional dyspnea, cough, and leg swelling were seen in 12 (27.3%), 9 (20.5%), and 4 (9.1%), respectively. There was no significant difference in those with pulmonary hypertension compared to those without the disease by gender, cigarette smoking, previous history of pulmonary tuberculosis treatment, physician-diagnosed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or bronchial asthma, duration of anti-retroviral therapy therapy or anti-retroviral regimen type. Pulmonary hypertension looks to be a frequent complication in people living with HIV in Ethiopia and is often associated with significant cardiopulmonary symptoms. Further studies using right heart catheterization are needed to better determine the etiology and prevalence of pulmonary hypertension in people living with HIV in Ethiopia compared to other countries.

Community-setting pneumonia-associated hospitalizations by level of urbanization-New York City versus other areas of New York State, 2010-2014.

BACKGROUND: New York City (NYC) reported a higher pneumonia and influenza death rate than the rest of New York State during 2010-2014. Most NYC pneumonia and influenza deaths are attributed to pneumonia caused by infection acquired in the community, and these deaths typically occur in hospitals. METHODS: We identified hospitalizations of New York State residents aged ≥20 years discharged from New York State hospitals during 2010-2014 with a principal diagnosis of community-setting pneumonia or a secondary diagnosis of community-setting pneumonia if the principal diagnosis was respiratory failure or sepsis. We examined mean annual age-adjusted community-setting pneumonia-associated hospitalization (CSPAH) rates and proportion of CSPAH with in-hospital death, overall and by sociodemographic group, and produced a multivariable negative binomial model to assess hospitalization rate ratios. RESULTS: Compared with non-NYC urban, suburban, and rural areas of New York State, NYC had the highest mean annual age-adjusted CSPAH rate at 475.3 per 100,000 population and the highest percentage of CSPAH with in-hospital death at 13.7%. NYC also had the highest proportion of CSPAH patients residing in higher-poverty-level areas. Adjusting for age, sex, and area-based poverty, NYC residents experienced 1.3 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-1.4), non-NYC urban residents 1.4 (95% CI, 1.3-1.6), and suburban residents 1.2 (95% CI, 1.1-1.3) times the rate of CSPAH than rural residents. CONCLUSIONS: In New York State, NYC as well as other urban areas and suburban areas had higher rates of CSPAH than rural areas. Further research is needed into drivers of CSPAH deaths, which may be associated with poverty.

Characterization and clinical course of 1000 patients with COVID-19 in New York: retrospective case series.

Objective: To characterize patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a large New York City (NYC) medical center and describe their clinical course across the emergency department (ED), inpatient wards, and intensive care units (ICUs). Design: Retrospective manual medical record review. Setting: NewYork-Presbyterian/Columbia University Irving Medical Center (NYP/CUIMC), a quaternary care academic medical center in NYC. Participants: The first 1000 consecutive patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19. Methods: We identified the first 1000 consecutive patients with a positive RT-SARS-CoV-2 PCR test who first presented to the ED or were hospitalized at NYP/CUIMC between March 1 and April 5, 2020. Patient data was manually abstracted from the electronic medical record. Main outcome measures: We describe patient characteristics including demographics, presenting symptoms, comorbidities on presentation, hospital course, time to intubation, complications, mortality, and disposition. Results: Among the first 1000 patients, 150 were ED patients, 614 were admitted without requiring ICU-level care, and 236 were admitted or transferred to the ICU. The most common presenting symptoms were cough (73.2%), fever (72.8%), and dyspnea (63.1%). Hospitalized patients, and ICU patients in particular, most commonly had baseline comorbidities including of hypertension, diabetes, and obesity. ICU patients were older, predominantly male (66.9%), and long lengths of stay (median 23 days; IQR 12 to 32 days); 78.0% developed AKI and 35.2% required dialysis. Notably, for patients who required mechanical ventilation, only 4.4% were first intubated more than 14 days after symptom onset. Time to intubation from symptom onset had a bimodal distribution, with modes at 3-4 and 9 days. As of April 30, 90 patients remained hospitalized and 211 had died in the hospital. Conclusions: Hospitalized patients with COVID-19 illness at this medical center faced significant morbidity and mortality, with high rates of AKI, dialysis, and a bimodal distribution in time to intubation from symptom onset.

Observational Study of Hydroxychloroquine in Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19.

BACKGROUND: Hydroxychloroquine has been widely administered to patients with Covid-19 without robust evidence supporting its use. METHODS: We examined the association between hydroxychloroquine use and intubation or death at a large medical center in New York City. Data were obtained regarding consecutive patients hospitalized with Covid-19, excluding those who were intubated, died, or discharged within 24 hours after presentation to the emergency department (study baseline). The primary end point was a composite of intubation or death in a time-to-event analysis. We compared outcomes in patients who received hydroxychloroquine with those in patients who did not, using a multivariable Cox model with inverse probability weighting according to the propensity score. RESULTS: Of 1446 consecutive patients, 70 patients were intubated, died, or discharged within 24 hours after presentation and were excluded from the analysis. Of the remaining 1376 patients, during a median follow-up of 22.5 days, 811 (58.9%) received hydroxychloroquine (600 mg twice on day 1, then 400 mg daily for a median of 5 days); 45.8% of the patients were treated within 24 hours after presentation to the emergency department, and 85.9% within 48 hours. Hydroxychloroquine-treated patients were more severely ill at baseline than those who did not receive hydroxychloroquine (median ratio of partial pressure of arterial oxygen to the fraction of inspired oxygen, 223 vs. 360). Overall, 346 patients (25.1%) had a primary end-point event (180 patients were intubated, of whom 66 subsequently died, and 166 died without intubation). In the main analysis, there was no significant association between hydroxychloroquine use and intubation or death (hazard ratio, 1.04, 95% confidence interval, 0.82 to 1.32). Results were similar in multiple sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: In this observational study involving patients with Covid-19 who had been admitted to the hospital, hydroxychloroquine administration was not associated with either a greatly lowered or an increased risk of the composite end point of intubation or death. Randomized, controlled trials of hydroxychloroquine in patients with Covid-19 are needed. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health.).

Characterization and clinical course of 1000 patients with coronavirus disease 2019 in New York: retrospective case series.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in a large New York City medical center and describe their clinical course across the emergency department, hospital wards, and intensive care units. DESIGN: Retrospective manual medical record review. SETTING: NewYork-Presbyterian/Columbia University Irving Medical Center, a quaternary care academic medical center in New York City. PARTICIPANTS: The first 1000 consecutive patients with a positive result on the reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction assay for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) who presented to the emergency department or were admitted to hospital between 1 March and 5 April 2020. Patient data were manually abstracted from electronic medical records. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Characterization of patients, including demographics, presenting symptoms, comorbidities on presentation, hospital course, time to intubation, complications, mortality, and disposition. RESULTS: Of the first 1000 patients, 150 presented to the emergency department, 614 were admitted to hospital (not intensive care units), and 236 were admitted or transferred to intensive care units. The most common presenting symptoms were cough (732/1000), fever (728/1000), and dyspnea (631/1000). Patients in hospital, particularly those treated in intensive care units, often had baseline comorbidities including hypertension, diabetes, and obesity. Patients admitted to intensive care units were older, predominantly male (158/236, 66.9%), and had long lengths of stay (median 23 days, interquartile range 12-32 days); 78.0% (184/236) developed acute kidney injury and 35.2% (83/236) needed dialysis. Only 4.4% (6/136) of patients who required mechanical ventilation were first intubated more than 14 days after symptom onset. Time to intubation from symptom onset had a bimodal distribution, with modes at three to four days, and at nine days. As of 30 April, 90 patients remained in hospital and 211 had died in hospital. CONCLUSIONS: Patients admitted to hospital with covid-19 at this medical center faced major morbidity and mortality, with high rates of acute kidney injury and inpatient dialysis, prolonged intubations, and a bimodal distribution of time to intubation from symptom onset.