Identifying and ranking novel independent features for cardiovascular disease prediction in people with type 2 diabetes.

Background: CVD prediction models do not perform well in people with diabetes. We therefore aimed to identify novel predictors for six facets of CVD, (including coronary heart disease (CHD), Ischemic stroke, heart failure (HF), and atrial fibrillation (AF)) in people with T2DM. Methods: Analyses were conducted using the UK biobank and were stratified on history of CVD and of T2DM: 459,142 participants without diabetes or a history of CVD, 14,610 with diabetes but without CVD, and 4,432 with diabetes and a history of CVD. Replication was performed using a 20% hold-out set, ranking features on their permuted c-statistic. Results: Out of the 600+ candidate features, we identified a subset of replicated features, ranging between 32 for CHD in people with diabetes to 184 for CVD+HF+AF in people without diabetes. Classical CVD risk factors (e.g. parental or maternal history of heart disease, or blood pressure) were relatively highly ranked for people without diabetes. The top predictors in the people with diabetes without a CVD history included: cystatin C, self-reported health satisfaction, biochemical measures of ill health (e.g. plasma albumin). For people with diabetes and a history of CVD top features were: self-reported ill health, and blood cell counts measurements (e.g. red cell distribution width). We additionally identified risk factors unique to people with diabetes, consisting of information on dietary patterns, mental health and biochemistry measures. Consideration of these novel features improved risk classification, for example per 1000 people with diabetes 133 CVD and 165 HF cases appropriately received a higher risk. Conclusion: Through data-driven feature selection we identified a substantial number of features relevant for prediction of cardiovascular risk in people with diabetes, the majority of which related to non-classical risk factors such as mental health, general illness markers, and kidney disease.

DCM-PROGRESS: predicting end-stage heart failure in non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy patients.

Aims: Patients with non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) are at considerable risk for end-stage heart failure (HF), requiring close monitoring to identify early signs of disease. We aimed to develop a model to predict the 5-years risk of end-stage HF, allowing for tailored patient monitoring and management. Methods and results: Derivation data were available from a Dutch cohort of 293 DCM patients, with external validation available from a Czech Republic cohort of 235 DCM patients. Candidate predictors spanned patient and family histories, ECG and echocardiogram measurements, and biochemistry. End-stage HF was defined as a composite of death, heart transplantation, or implantation of a ventricular assist device. Lasso and sigmoid kernel support vector machine (SVM) algorithms were trained using cross-validation. During follow-up 65 (22%) of Dutch DCM patients developed end-stage HF, with 27 (11%) cases in the Czech cohort. Out of the two considered models, the lasso model (retaining NYHA class, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, height, R-axis, and TAPSE as predictors) reached the highest discriminative performance (testing c-statistic of 0.85, 95%CI 0.58; 0.94), which was confirmed in the external validation cohort (c-statistic of 0.75, 95%CI 0.61; 0.82), compared to a c-statistic of 0.69 for the MAGGIC score. Both the MAGGIC score and the DCM-PROGRESS model slightly over-estimated the true risk, but were otherwise appropriately calibrated. Conclusion: We developed a highly discriminative risk-prediction model for end-stage HF in DCM patients. The model was validated in two countries, suggesting the model can meaningfully improve clinical decision-making.

Circulating Acylcarnitines Associated with Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy Severity: an Exploratory Cross-Sectional Study in MYBPC3 Founder Variant Carriers.

Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is a relatively common genetic heart disease characterised by myocardial hypertrophy. HCM can cause outflow tract obstruction, sudden cardiac death and heart failure, but severity is highly variable. In this exploratory cross-sectional study, circulating acylcarnitines were assessed as potential biomarkers in 124 MYBPC3 founder variant carriers (59 with severe HCM, 26 with mild HCM and 39 phenotype-negative [G + P-]). Elastic net logistic regression identified eight acylcarnitines associated with HCM severity. C3, C4, C6-DC, C8:1, C16, C18 and C18:2 were significantly increased in severe HCM compared to G + P-, and C3, C6-DC, C8:1 and C18 in mild HCM compared to G + P-. In multivariable linear regression, C6-DC and C8:1 correlated to log-transformed maximum wall thickness (coefficient 5.01, p = 0.005 and coefficient 0.803, p = 0.007, respectively), and C6-DC to log-transformed ejection fraction (coefficient -2.50, p = 0.004). Acylcarnitines seem promising biomarkers for HCM severity, however prospective studies are required to determine their prognostic value.

Adjusting for bias in unblinded randomized controlled trials.

It may not always be possible to blind participants of a randomized controlled trial for treatment allocation. As a result, estimators of the actual treatment effect may be biased. In this paper, we will extend a novel method, originally introduced in genetic research, for instrumental variable meta-analysis, adjusting for bias due to unblinding of trial participants. Using simulation studies, this novel method, "Egger Correction for non-Adherence", is introduced and compared to the performance of the "intention-to-treat," "as-treated," and conventional "instrumental variable" estimators. Scenarios considered (time-varying) non-adherence, confounding, and between-study heterogeneity. The effect of treatment on a binary endpoint was quantified by means of a risk difference. In all scenarios with unblinded treatment allocation, the Egger Correction for non-Adherence method was the least biased estimator. However, unless the variation in adherence was relatively large, precision was lacking, and power did not surpass 0.50. As a comparison, in a meta-analysis of blinded randomized controlled trials, power of the conventional IV estimator was 1.00 versus at most 0.14 for the Egger Correction for non-Adherence estimator. Due to this lack of precision and power, we suggest to use this method mainly as a sensitivity analysis.

Mendelian randomization with Egger pleiotropy correction and weakly informative Bayesian priors.

Background: The MR-Egger (MRE) estimator has been proposed to correct for directional pleiotropic effects of genetic instruments in an instrumental variable (IV) analysis. The power of this method is considerably lower than that of conventional estimators, limiting its applicability. Here we propose a novel Bayesian implementation of the MR-Egger estimator (BMRE) and explore the utility of applying weakly informative priors on the intercept term (the pleiotropy estimate) to increase power of the IV (slope) estimate. Methods: This was a simulation study to compare the performance of different IV estimators. Scenarios differed in the presence of a causal effect, the presence of pleiotropy, the proportion of pleiotropic instruments and degree of 'Instrument Strength Independent of Direct Effect' (InSIDE) assumption violation. Based on empirical plasma urate data, we present an approach to elucidate a prior distribution for the amount of pleiotropy. Results: A weakly informative prior on the intercept term increased power of the slope estimate while maintaining type 1 error rates close to the nominal value of 0.05. Under the InSIDE assumption, performance was unaffected by the presence or absence of pleiotropy. Violation of the InSIDE assumption biased all estimators, affecting the BMRE more than the MRE method. Conclusions: Depending on the prior distribution, the BMRE estimator has more power at the cost of an increased susceptibility to InSIDE assumption violations. As such the BMRE method is a compromise between the MRE and conventional IV estimators, and may be an especially useful approach to account for observed pleiotropy.

Comparison of variance estimators for meta-analysis of instrumental variable estimates.

Background: Mendelian randomization studies perform instrumental variable (IV) analysis using genetic IVs. Results of individual Mendelian randomization studies can be pooled through meta-analysis. We explored how different variance estimators influence the meta-analysed IV estimate. Methods: Two versions of the delta method (IV before or after pooling), four bootstrap estimators, a jack-knife estimator and a heteroscedasticity-consistent (HC) variance estimator were compared using simulation. Two types of meta-analyses were compared, a two-stage meta-analysis pooling results, and a one-stage meta-analysis pooling datasets. Results: Using a two-stage meta-analysis, coverage of the point estimate using bootstrapped estimators deviated from nominal levels at weak instrument settings and/or outcome probabilities ≤ 0.10. The jack-knife estimator was the least biased resampling method, the HC estimator often failed at outcome probabilities ≤ 0.50 and overall the delta method estimators were the least biased. In the presence of between-study heterogeneity, the delta method before meta-analysis performed best. Using a one-stage meta-analysis all methods performed equally well and better than two-stage meta-analysis of greater or equal size. Conclusions: In the presence of between-study heterogeneity, two-stage meta-analyses should preferentially use the delta method before meta-analysis. Weak instrument bias can be reduced by performing a one-stage meta-analysis.

Tailoring treatments using treatment effect modification.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Applying results from clinical studies to individual patients can be a difficult process. Using the concept of treatment effect modification (also referred to as interaction), defined as a difference in treatment response between patient groups, we discuss whether and how treatment effects can be tailored to better meet patients' needs. RESULTS: First we argue that contrary to how most studies are designed, treatment effect modification should be expected. Second, given this expected heterogeneity, a small number of clinically relevant subgroups should be a priori selected, depending on the expected magnitude of effect modification, and prevalence of the patient type. Third, by defining generalizability as the absence of treatment effect modification we show that generalizability can be evaluated within the usual statistical framework of equivalence testing. Fourth, when equivalence cannot be confirmed, we address the need for further analyses and studies tailoring treatment towards groups of patients with similar response to treatment. Fifth, we argue that to properly frame, the entire body of evidence on effect modification should be quantified in a prior probability.

Chemotherapy effectiveness and mortality prediction in surgically treated osteosarcoma dogs: A validation study.

Canine osteosarcoma is the most common bone cancer, and an important cause of mortality and morbidity, in large purebred dogs. Previously we constructed two multivariable models to predict a dog's 5-month or 1-year mortality risk after surgical treatment for osteosarcoma. According to the 5-month model, dogs with a relatively low risk of 5-month mortality benefited most from additional chemotherapy treatment. In the present study, we externally validated these results using an independent cohort study of 794 dogs. External performance of our prediction models showed some disagreement between observed and predicted risk, mean difference: -0.11 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]-0.29; 0.08) for 5-month risk and 0.25 (95%CI 0.10; 0.40) for 1-year mortality risk. After updating the intercept, agreement improved: -0.0004 (95%CI-0.16; 0.16) and -0.002 (95%CI-0.15; 0.15). The chemotherapy by predicted mortality risk interaction (P-value=0.01) showed that the chemotherapy compared to no chemotherapy effectiveness was modified by 5-month mortality risk: dogs with a relatively lower risk of mortality benefited most from additional chemotherapy. Chemotherapy effectiveness on 1-year mortality was not significantly modified by predicted risk (P-value=0.28). In conclusion, this external validation study confirmed that our multivariable risk prediction models can predict a patient's mortality risk and that dogs with a relatively lower risk of 5-month mortality seem to benefit most from chemotherapy.

Which dogs with appendicular osteosarcoma benefit most from chemotherapy after surgery? Results from an individual patient data meta-analysis.

Osteosarcoma (OS) is a malignant tumor of mesenchymal origin that produces osteoid. Given that the prognosis can vary considerably between dogs, we aimed to explore whether treatment could be tailored towards patient subgroups, characterized by their predicted risk of mortality. For the current study, a subset of five nonrandomized studies (400 subjects of whom 88 were dead at 5 months follow-up) was used from a previously published 20 study individual patient data meta-analysis. Missing data was dependent on observed variables and was imputed to correct for this dependency. Based on a previously published multivariable prognostic model, the 5-month mortality risk was predicted. Subsequently, in surgically treated dogs, using a logistic regression model with a random intercept for a study indicator, we explored whether chemotherapy effectiveness depended on predicted 5-month mortality risk. After adjustment for potential confounders the main effect of any chemotherapy was 0.48 (odds ratio) (95%CI 0.30; 0.78). Testing for chemotherapy by predicted 5-month mortality risk interaction revealed that the effects of any chemotherapy decreased with increasing predicted risk; interaction OR 3.41 (1.07; 10.84). Results from individually comparing carboplatin, cisplatin, doxorubicin and doxorubicin combination therapy to no chemotherapy, were similar in magnitude and direction. These results indicate that the main treatment effects of chemotherapy do not necessarily apply to all patients.

VEGF receptor expression decreases during lung development in congenital diaphragmatic hernia induced by nitrofen.

Changes in vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) in pulmonary vessels have been described in congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) and may contribute to the development of pulmonary hypoplasia and hypertension; however, how the expression of VEGF receptors changes during fetal lung development in CDH is not understood. The aim of this study was to compare morphological evolution with expression of VEGF receptors, VEGFR1 (Flt-1) and VEGFR2 (Flk-1), in pseudoglandular, canalicular, and saccular stages of lung development in normal rat fetuses and in fetuses with CDH. Pregnant rats were divided into four groups (n=20 fetuses each) of four different gestational days (GD) 18.5, 19.5, 20.5, 21.5: external control (EC), exposed to olive oil (OO), exposed to 100 mg nitrofen, by gavage, without CDH (N-), and exposed to nitrofen with CDH (CDH) on GD 9.5 (term=22 days). The morphological variables studied were: body weight (BW), total lung weight (TLW), left lung weight, TLW/BW ratio, total lung volume, and left lung volume. The histometric variables studied were: left lung parenchymal area density and left lung parenchymal volume. VEGFR1 and VEGFR2 expression were determined by Western blotting. The data were analyzed using analysis of variance with the Tukey-Kramer post hoc test. CDH frequency was 37% (80/216). All the morphological and histometric variables were reduced in the N- and CDH groups compared with the controls, and reductions were more pronounced in the CDH group (P<0.05) and more evident on GD 20.5 and GD 21.5. Similar results were observed for VEGFR1 and VEGFR2 expression. We conclude that N- and CDH fetuses showed primary pulmonary hypoplasia, with a decrease in VEGFR1 and VEGFR2 expression.

VEGF receptor expression decreases during lung development in congenital diaphragmatic hernia induced by nitrofen

Changes in vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) in pulmonary vessels have been described in congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) and may contribute to the development of pulmonary hypoplasia and hypertension; however, how the expression of VEGF receptors changes during fetal lung development in CDH is not understood. The aim of this study was to compare morphological evolution with expression of VEGF receptors, VEGFR1 (Flt-1) and VEGFR2 (Flk-1), in pseudoglandular, canalicular, and saccular stages of lung development in normal rat fetuses and in fetuses with CDH. Pregnant rats were divided into four groups (n=20 fetuses each) of four different gestational days (GD) 18.5, 19.5, 20.5, 21.5: external control (EC), exposed to olive oil (OO), exposed to 100 mg nitrofen, by gavage, without CDH (N-), and exposed to nitrofen with CDH (CDH) on GD 9.5 (term=22 days). The morphological variables studied were: body weight (BW), total lung weight (TLW), left lung weight, TLW/BW ratio, total lung volume, and left lung volume. The histometric variables studied were: left lung parenchymal area density and left lung parenchymal volume. VEGFR1 and VEGFR2 expression were determined by Western blotting. The data were analyzed using analysis of variance with the Tukey-Kramer post hoc test. CDH frequency was 37% (80/216). All the morphological and histometric variables were reduced in the N- and CDH groups compared with the controls, and reductions were more pronounced in the CDH group (P<0.05) and more evident on GD 20.5 and GD 21.5. Similar results were observed for VEGFR1 and VEGFR2 expression. We conclude that N- and CDH fetuses showed primary pulmonary hypoplasia, with a decrease in VEGFR1 and VEGFR2 expression.

Prognostic factors of early metastasis and mortality in dogs with appendicular osteosarcoma after receiving surgery: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

Recently an aggregated data meta-analysis showed that serum alkaline phosphatase (SALP) and proximal humerus location are predictors for shorter survival in canine osteosarcoma. To identify additional prognostic factors of mortality and metastasis an individual patient data meta-analysis (IPDMA) was conducted. Individual patient data from 20 studies, identified via the VSSO society, were pooled. Univariable and multivariable hazard ratios (HR) for metastasis and mortality were assessed, using stratified Cox models. The study included 1405 dogs who received surgical treatment, of which the metastasis status was measured in 1155 dogs and mortality status in 1336 dogs; median survival was 256 days. High versus normal SALP and weight (kg) were associated with an increase in hazard of metastasis [HR 1.34 (95%CI 1.07; 1.68) and HR 1.02 (per kg increase) (95%CI 1.01; 1.03)] and for mortality [HR 1.43 (95%CI 1.16; 1.77) and HR 1.02 (95%CI 1.01; 1.02)]. Distal radius tumor was associated with a lower hazard of metastasis compared to other locations: HR 0.75 (95%CI 0.58; 0.96). Proximal humerus and distal femur or proximal tibia location were related with an increased mortality: HR 1.53 (95%CI 1.26; 1.84) and HR 1.23 (95%CI 1.01; 1.49) compared to other locations. Older age (years) was associated with a higher hazard for mortality [HR 1.06 per year (95%CI 1.03; 1.09)] but not for metastasis: HR 1.03 (95%CI 0.99; 1.06). These results confirm findings from a recent aggregated data meta-analysis and (in addition) showed that tumor location, SALP, weight were prognostic factors for both mortality and metastasis. Age was a prognostic factor for mortality but not for metastasis.

Evaluation of nitric oxide (NO) and nitric oxide synthases (NOS) in the amniotic fluid in an experimental gastroschisis rat model.

UNLABELLED: Intestinal damage due to gastroschisis (G), an anomaly found with increasing incidence by pediatric surgeons, is intimately associated with endogenous nitric oxide (NO) production and NO synthase (NOS) expression. AIM: Aim of the study was to evaluate NO production and NOS isoforms in the intestine and amniotic fluid (AF) using a rat model of gastroschisis. METHODS: A gastroschisis rat model was surgically created at 18.5 days of gestation (term=22 days). 3 groups of 12 fetuses each were studied: control (C), sham (S) and (G). Morphometric data of body weight (BW), intestinal weight (IW) and the IW/BW ratio were evaluated and compared. Indirect quantification of NO (nitrite and nitrate - NOx) was analyzed by chemiluminescence, and the expression of the 3 isoforms was analyzed by Western blotting. RESULTS: Group G showed an increase in IW and IW/BW compared with groups C and S. IW: G=0.27 ± 0.06, C=0.20 ± 0.02, S=0.20 ± 0.02 (p<0.01); IW/BW: G=4.11 ± 0.57, C=5.21 ± 1.04, S=5.18 ± 1.23 (p<0.05). NO in the G group was lower in the intestine and higher in AF, as opposed to C and S, where it had increased in the intestine and decreased in AF. Intestinal NOx: G=0.85 ± 0.28, C=1.86 ± 0.82, S=1.80 ± 0.69 (p<0.05); NOx in AF: G=161.87 ± 52.11, C=6.99 ± 5.45, S=48.73 ± 13.183 (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: The intestinal inflammation in gastroschisis promotes the release of nitric oxide to the environment (AF). Perhaps NO in the AF may be an inflammatory marker for G.

Inflammatory response in a rat model of gastroschisis is associated with an increase of NF-kappaB

Babies with gastroschisis have high morbidity, which is associated with inflammatory bowel injury caused by exposure to amniotic fluid. The objective of this study was to identify components of the inflammatory response in the intestine and liver in an experimental model of gastroschisis in rats. The model was surgically created at 18.5 days of gestation. The fetuses were exposed through a hysterotomy and an incision at the right of the umbilicus was made, exposing the fetal bowel. Then, the fetus was placed back into the uterus until term. The bowel in this model had macro- and microscopic characteristics similar to those observed in gastroschisis. The study was conducted on three groups of 20 fetuses each: gastroschisis, control, and sham fetuses. Fetal body, intestine and liver weights and intestine length were measured. IL-1â, IL-6, IL-10, TNF-á, IFN-ã and NF-kappaB levels were assessed by ELISA. Data were analyzed statistically by ANOVA followed by the Tukey post-test. Gastroschisis fetuses had a decreased intestine length (means ± SD, 125 ± 25 vs 216 ± 13.9; P < 0.005) and increased intestine weight (0.29 ± 0.05 vs 0.24 ± 0.04; P < 0.005). Intestine length correlated with liver weight only in gastroschisis fetuses (Pearson’s correlation coefficient, r = 0.518, P = 0.019). There were no significant differences in the concentrations of IL-1â, TNF-á or IFN-ã in the intestine, whereas the concentration of NF-kappaB was increased in both the intestine and liver of fetuses with gastroschisis. These results show that the inflammatory response in the liver and intestine of the rat model of gastroschisis is accompanied by an increase in the amount of NF-kappaB in the intestine and liver.

Inflammatory response in a rat model of gastroschisis is associated with an increase of NF-kappaB.

Babies with gastroschisis have high morbidity, which is associated with inflammatory bowel injury caused by exposure to amniotic fluid. The objective of this study was to identify components of the inflammatory response in the intestine and liver in an experimental model of gastroschisis in rats. The model was surgically created at 18.5 days of gestation. The fetuses were exposed through a hysterotomy and an incision at the right of the umbilicus was made, exposing the fetal bowel. Then, the fetus was placed back into the uterus until term. The bowel in this model had macro- and microscopic characteristics similar to those observed in gastroschisis. The study was conducted on three groups of 20 fetuses each: gastroschisis, control, and sham fetuses. Fetal body, intestine and liver weights and intestine length were measured. IL-1beta, IL-6, IL-10, TNF-alpha, IFN-gamma and NF-kappaB levels were assessed by ELISA. Data were analyzed statistically by ANOVA followed by the Tukey post-test. Gastroschisis fetuses had a decreased intestine length (means +/- SD, 125 +/- 25 vs 216 +/- 13.9; P < 0.005) and increased intestine weight (0.29 +/- 0.05 vs 0.24 +/- 0.04; P < 0.005). Intestine length correlated with liver weight only in gastroschisis fetuses (Pearson's correlation coefficient, r = 0.518, P = 0.019). There were no significant differences in the concentrations of IL-1beta, TNF-alpha or IFN-gamma in the intestine, whereas the concentration of NF-kappaB was increased in both the intestine and liver of fetuses with gastroschisis. These results show that the inflammatory response in the liver and intestine of the rat model of gastroschisis is accompanied by an increase in the amount of NF-kappaB in the intestine and liver.

Thoracoscopic surgery in Brazil. An overview.

The Video Assisted Thoracic Surgery (VATS) was introduced in Brazil in 1992 by Losso, Ghefter and Imaeda. Since its advent up to November 1994, 488 patients have been submitted to 497 VATS procedures in four Medical Centers of São Paulo city. The indications for the procedures were: lung diseases in 244 patients (50%), pleural disease in 155 patients (31.7%), thoracic traumas in 42 patients (8.6%), mediastinal diseases in 35 patients (7.1%), cardiovascular diseases in 7 patients (1.4%), chest wall diseases in 3 patients (0.6%) and esophageal diseases in 2 patients (0.4%). In the group of lung disease the most commonly used procedures were the lung biopsy in order to diagnose diffuse pulmonary disease and the indeterminate solitary nodule resection. Among the occurrences of pleural diseases, the most commonly used procedures were the pleurodesis with talc (talc poudrage) for the treatment of recurrent pleural effusion, the driven pleura biopsy and debridment or decortication of trapped lung in cases of pleural empyema. Concerning the mediastinal diseases, the pathology which was most frequently treated by VATS was the recurrent pericardic effusion through partial pericardiectomy. Among the patients presenting chest traumatic diseases, the VATS was used to explore thoracoabdominal penetrating injuries, to control bleeding, to remove clotted hemothorax, to suture diaphragm lesions and to remove intrapleural foreign bodies. Out of 497 procedures, there were 28 convertions to thoracotomy (5.7%) and two deaths occurred all over the cases. The complications, limitations and growth related to this method as well as a future overview of the VATS in Brazil will be presented.