Childhood adversity, adult stress, and the risk of major depression or generalized anxiety disorder in US soldiers: a test of the stress sensitization hypothesis.

BACKGROUND: The stress sensitization theory hypothesizes that individuals exposed to childhood adversity will be more vulnerable to mental disorders from proximal stressors. We aimed to test this theory with respect to risk of 30-day major depressive episode (MDE) and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) among new US Army soldiers. METHODS: The sample consisted of 30 436 new soldier recruits in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience (Army STARRS). Generalized linear models were constructed, and additive interactions between childhood maltreatment profiles and level of 12-month stressful experiences on the risk of 30-day MDE and GAD were analyzed. RESULTS: Stress sensitization was observed in models of past 30-day MDE (χ2 8 = 17.6, p = 0.025) and GAD (χ2 8 = 26.8, p = 0.001). This sensitization only occurred at high (3+) levels of reported 12-month stressful experiences. In pairwise comparisons for the risk of 30-day MDE, the risk difference between 3+ stressful experiences and no stressful experiences was significantly greater for all maltreatment profiles relative to No Maltreatment. Similar results were found with the risk for 30-day GAD with the exception of the risk difference for Episodic Emotional and Sexual Abuse, which did not differ statistically from No Maltreatment. CONCLUSIONS: New soldiers are at an increased risk of 30-day MDE or GAD following recent stressful experiences if they were exposed to childhood maltreatment. Particularly in the military with an abundance of unique stressors, attempts to identify this population and improve stress management may be useful in the effort to reduce the risk of mental disorders.

Predicting non-familial major physical violent crime perpetration in the US Army from administrative data.

BACKGROUND: Although interventions exist to reduce violent crime, optimal implementation requires accurate targeting. We report the results of an attempt to develop an actuarial model using machine learning methods to predict future violent crimes among US Army soldiers. METHOD: A consolidated administrative database for all 975 057 soldiers in the US Army in 2004-2009 was created in the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS). Of these soldiers, 5771 committed a first founded major physical violent crime (murder-manslaughter, kidnapping, aggravated arson, aggravated assault, robbery) over that time period. Temporally prior administrative records measuring socio-demographic, Army career, criminal justice, medical/pharmacy, and contextual variables were used to build an actuarial model for these crimes separately among men and women using machine learning methods (cross-validated stepwise regression, random forests, penalized regressions). The model was then validated in an independent 2011-2013 sample. RESULTS: Key predictors were indicators of disadvantaged social/socioeconomic status, early career stage, prior crime, and mental disorder treatment. Area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.80-0.82 in 2004-2009 and 0.77 in the 2011-2013 validation sample. Of all administratively recorded crimes, 36.2-33.1% (male-female) were committed by the 5% of soldiers having the highest predicted risk in 2004-2009 and an even higher proportion (50.5%) in the 2011-2013 validation sample. CONCLUSIONS: Although these results suggest that the models could be used to target soldiers at high risk of violent crime perpetration for preventive interventions, final implementation decisions would require further validation and weighing of predicted effectiveness against intervention costs and competing risks.

Occupational differences in US Army suicide rates.

BACKGROUND: Civilian suicide rates vary by occupation in ways related to occupational stress exposure. Comparable military research finds suicide rates elevated in combat arms occupations. However, no research has evaluated variation in this pattern by deployment history, the indicator of occupation stress widely considered responsible for the recent rise in the military suicide rate. METHOD: The joint associations of Army occupation and deployment history in predicting suicides were analysed in an administrative dataset for the 729 337 male enlisted Regular Army soldiers in the US Army between 2004 and 2009. RESULTS: There were 496 suicides over the study period (22.4/100 000 person-years). Only two occupational categories, both in combat arms, had significantly elevated suicide rates: infantrymen (37.2/100 000 person-years) and combat engineers (38.2/100 000 person-years). However, the suicide rates in these two categories were significantly lower when currently deployed (30.6/100 000 person-years) than never deployed or previously deployed (41.2-39.1/100 000 person-years), whereas the suicide rate of other soldiers was significantly higher when currently deployed and previously deployed (20.2-22.4/100 000 person-years) than never deployed (14.5/100 000 person-years), resulting in the adjusted suicide rate of infantrymen and combat engineers being most elevated when never deployed [odds ratio (OR) 2.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.1-4.1], less so when previously deployed (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.1-2.1), and not at all when currently deployed (OR 1.2, 95% CI 0.8-1.8). Adjustment for a differential 'healthy warrior effect' cannot explain this variation in the relative suicide rates of never-deployed infantrymen and combat engineers by deployment status. CONCLUSIONS: Efforts are needed to elucidate the causal mechanisms underlying this interaction to guide preventive interventions for soldiers at high suicide risk.

Understanding the elevated suicide risk of female soldiers during deployments.

BACKGROUND: The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) has found that the proportional elevation in the US Army enlisted soldier suicide rate during deployment (compared with the never-deployed or previously deployed) is significantly higher among women than men, raising the possibility of gender differences in the adverse psychological effects of deployment. METHOD: Person-month survival models based on a consolidated administrative database for active duty enlisted Regular Army soldiers in 2004-2009 (n = 975,057) were used to characterize the gender × deployment interaction predicting suicide. Four explanatory hypotheses were explored involving the proportion of females in each soldier's occupation, the proportion of same-gender soldiers in each soldier's unit, whether the soldier reported sexual assault victimization in the previous 12 months, and the soldier's pre-deployment history of treated mental/behavioral disorders. RESULTS: The suicide rate of currently deployed women (14.0/100,000 person-years) was 3.1-3.5 times the rates of other (i.e. never-deployed/previously deployed) women. The suicide rate of currently deployed men (22.6/100,000 person-years) was 0.9-1.2 times the rates of other men. The adjusted (for time trends, sociodemographics, and Army career variables) female:male odds ratio comparing the suicide rates of currently deployed v. other women v. men was 2.8 (95% confidence interval 1.1-6.8), became 2.4 after excluding soldiers with Direct Combat Arms occupations, and remained elevated (in the range 1.9-2.8) after adjusting for the hypothesized explanatory variables. CONCLUSIONS: These results are valuable in excluding otherwise plausible hypotheses for the elevated suicide rate of deployed women and point to the importance of expanding future research on the psychological challenges of deployment for women.

Sociodemographic and career history predictors of suicide mortality in the United States Army 2004-2009.

BACKGROUND: The US Army suicide rate has increased sharply in recent years. Identifying significant predictors of Army suicides in Army and Department of Defense (DoD) administrative records might help focus prevention efforts and guide intervention content. Previous studies of administrative data, although documenting significant predictors, were based on limited samples and models. A career history perspective is used here to develop more textured models. METHOD: The analysis was carried out as part of the Historical Administrative Data Study (HADS) of the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS). De-identified data were combined across numerous Army and DoD administrative data systems for all Regular Army soldiers on active duty in 2004-2009. Multivariate associations of sociodemographics and Army career variables with suicide were examined in subgroups defined by time in service, rank and deployment history. RESULTS: Several novel results were found that could have intervention implications. The most notable of these were significantly elevated suicide rates (69.6-80.0 suicides per 100 000 person-years compared with 18.5 suicides per 100 000 person-years in the total Army) among enlisted soldiers deployed either during their first year of service or with less than expected (based on time in service) junior enlisted rank; a substantially greater rise in suicide among women than men during deployment; and a protective effect of marriage against suicide only during deployment. CONCLUSIONS: A career history approach produces several actionable insights missed in less textured analyses of administrative data predictors. Expansion of analyses to a richer set of predictors might help refine understanding of intervention implications.

Including information about co-morbidity in estimates of disease burden: results from the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys.

BACKGROUND: The methodology commonly used to estimate disease burden, featuring ratings of severity of individual conditions, has been criticized for ignoring co-morbidity. A methodology that addresses this problem is proposed and illustrated here with data from the World Health Organization World Mental Health Surveys. Although the analysis is based on self-reports about one's own conditions in a community survey, the logic applies equally well to analysis of hypothetical vignettes describing co-morbid condition profiles. METHOD: Face-to-face interviews in 13 countries (six developing, nine developed; n=31 067; response rate=69.6%) assessed 10 classes of chronic physical and nine of mental conditions. A visual analog scale (VAS) was used to assess overall perceived health. Multiple regression analysis with interactions for co-morbidity was used to estimate associations of conditions with VAS. Simulation was used to estimate condition-specific effects. RESULTS: The best-fitting model included condition main effects and interactions of types by numbers of conditions. Neurological conditions, insomnia and major depression were rated most severe. Adjustment for co-morbidity reduced condition-specific estimates with substantial between-condition variation (0.24-0.70 ratios of condition-specific estimates with and without adjustment for co-morbidity). The societal-level burden rankings were quite different from the individual-level rankings, with the highest societal-level rankings associated with conditions having high prevalence rather than high individual-level severity. CONCLUSIONS: Plausible estimates of disorder-specific effects on VAS can be obtained using methods that adjust for co-morbidity. These adjustments substantially influence condition-specific ratings.

Can utility-weighted health-related quality-of-life estimates capture health effects of quality improvement for depression?

BACKGROUND: Utility methods that are responsive to changes in desirable outcomes are needed for cost-effectiveness (CE) analyses and to help in decisions about resource allocation. OBJECTIVES: Evaluated is the responsiveness of different methods that assign utility weights to subsets of SF-36 items to average improvements in health resulting from quality improvement (QI) interventions for depression. DESIGN: A group level, randomized, control trial in 46 primary care clinics in six managed care organizations. Clinics were randomized to one of two QI interventions or usual care. SUBJECTS: One thousand one hundred thirty-six patients with current depressive symptoms and either 12-month, lifetime, or no depressive disorder identified through screening 27,332 consecutive patients. MEASURES: Utility weighted SF-12 or SF-36 measures, probable depression, and physical and mental health-related quality of life scores. RESULTS: Several utility-weighted measures showed increases in utility values for patients in one of the interventions, relative to usual care, that paralleled the improved health effects for depression and emotional well being. However, QALY gains were small. Directly elicited utility values showed a paradoxical result of lower utility during the first year of the study for intervention patients relative to controls. CONCLUSIONS: The results raise concerns about the use of direct single-item utility measures or utility measures derived from generic health status measures in effectiveness studies for depression. Choice of measure may lead to different conclusions about the benefit and CE of treatment. Utility measures that capture the mental health and non-health outcomes associated with treatment for depression are needed.

Cost-effectiveness of practice-initiated quality improvement for depression: results of a randomized controlled trial.

CONTEXT: Depression is a leading cause of disability worldwide, but treatment rates in primary care are low. OBJECTIVE: To determine the cost-effectiveness from a societal perspective of 2 quality improvement (QI) interventions to improve treatment of depression in primary care and their effects on patient employment. DESIGN: Group-level randomized controlled trial conducted June 1996 to July 1999. SETTING: Forty-six primary care clinics in 6 community-based managed care organizations. PARTICIPANTS: One hundred eighty-one primary care clinicians and 1356 patients with positive screening results for current depression. INTERVENTIONS: Matched practices were randomly assigned to provide usual care (n = 443 patients) or to 1 of 2 QI interventions offering training to practice leaders and nurses, enhanced educational and assessment resources, and either nurses for medication follow-up (QI-meds; n = 424 patients) or trained local psychotherapists (QI-therapy; n = 489). Practices could flexibly implement the interventions, which did not assign type of treatment. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Total health care costs, costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), days with depression burden, and employment over 24 months, compared between usual care and the 2 interventions. RESULTS: Relative to usual care, average health care costs increased $419 (11%) in QI-meds (P =.35) and $485 (13%) in QI-therapy (P =.28); estimated costs per QALY gained were between $15 331 and $36 467 for QI-meds and $9478 and $21 478 for QI-therapy; and patients had 25 (P =.19) and 47 (P =.01) fewer days with depression burden and were employed 17.9 (P =.07) and 20.9 (P =.03) more days during the study period. CONCLUSIONS: Societal cost-effectiveness of practice-initiated QI efforts for depression is comparable with that of accepted medical interventions. The intervention effects on employment may be of particular interest to employers and other stakeholders.

Long-term effectiveness of disseminating quality improvement for depression in primary care.

BACKGROUND: This article addresses whether dissemination of short-term quality improvement (QI) interventions for depression to primary care practices improves patients' clinical outcomes and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) over 2 years, relative to usual care (UC). METHODS: The sample included 1299 patients with current depressive symptoms and 12-month, lifetime, or no depressive disorder from 46 primary care practices in 6 managed care organizations. Clinics were randomized to UC or 1 of 2 QI programs that included training local experts and nurse specialists to provide clinician and patient education, assessment, and treatment planning, plus either nurse care managers for medication follow-up (QI-meds) or access to trained psychotherapists (QI-therapy). Outcomes were assessed every 6 months for 2 years. RESULTS: For most outcomes, differences between intervention and UC patients were not sustained for the full 2 years. However, QI-therapy reduced overall poor outcomes compared with UC by about 8 percentage points throughout 2 years, and by 10 percentage points compared with QI-meds at 24 months. Both interventions improved patients' clinical and role outcomes, relative to UC, over 12 months (eg, a 10-11 and 6-7 percentage point difference in probable depression at 6 and 12 months, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: While most outcome improvements were not sustained over the full 2 study years, findings suggest that flexible dissemination of short-term, QI programs in managed primary care can improve patient outcomes well after program termination. Models that support integrated psychotherapy and medication-based treatment strategies in primary care have the potential for relatively long-term patient benefits.

Improving primary care for depression in late life: the design of a multicenter randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Late life depression can be successfully treated with antidepressant medications or psychotherapy, but few depressed older adults receive effective treatment. RESEARCH DESIGN: A randomized controlled trial of a disease management program for late life depression. SUBJECTS: Approximately 1,750 older adults with major depression or dysthymia are recruited from seven national study sites. INTERVENTION: Half of the subjects are randomly assigned to a collaborative care program where a depression clinical specialist supervised by a psychiatrist and a primary care expert supports the patient's regular primary care provider to treat depression. Intervention services are provided for 12 months using antidepressant medications and Problem Solving Treatment in Primary Care according to a stepped care protocol that varies intervention intensity according to clinical needs. The other half of the subjects are assigned to care as usual. EVALUATION: Subjects are independently assessed at baseline, 3 months, 6 months, 12 months, 18 months, and 24 months. The evaluation assesses the incremental cost-effectiveness of the intervention compared with care as usual. Specific outcomes examined include care for depression, depressive symptoms, health-related quality of life, satisfaction with depression care, health care costs, patient time costs, market and nonmarket productivity, and household income. CONCLUSIONS: The study blends methods from health services and clinical research in an effort to protect internal validity while maximizing the generalizability of results to diverse health care systems. We hope that this study will show the cost-effectiveness of a new model of care for late life depression that can be applied in a range of primary care settings.

Health plan choice and information about out-of-pocket costs: an experimental analysis.

Many consumers are offered two or more employer-sponsored health insurance plans, and competition among health plans for subscribers is promoted as a mechanism for balancing health care costs and quality. Yet consumers may not receive the information necessary to make informed health plan choices. This study tests the effects on health plan choice of providing supplemental decision-support materials to inform consumers about expected health plan costs. Our main finding is that such information induces consumers to bear more risk, especially those in relatively good health. Thus our results suggest that working-age, privately insured consumers currently may be over-insuring for medical care.

Measuring the incremental cost of clinical cancer research.

PURPOSE: To summarize evidence on the costs of treating patients in clinical trials and to describe the Cost of Cancer Treatment Study, an ongoing effort to produce generalizable estimates of the incremental costs of government-sponsored cancer trials. METHODS: A retrospective study of costs will be conducted with 1,500 cancer patients recruited from a randomly selected sample of institutions in the United States. Patients accrued to either phase II or phase III National Cancer Institute-sponsored clinical trials during a 15-month period will be asked to participate in a study of their health care utilization (n = 750). Costs will be measured approximately 1 year after their trial enrollment from a combination of billing records, medical records, and an in-person survey questionnaire. Similar data will be collected for a comparable group of cancer patients not in trials (n = 750) to provide an estimate of the incremental cost. RESULTS: Evidence suggests insurers limit access to trials because of cost concerns. Public and private efforts are underway to change these policies, but their permanent status is unclear. Previous studies found that treatment costs in clinical trials are similar to costs of standard therapy. However, it is difficult to generalize from these studies because of the unique practice settings, insufficient sample sizes, and the exclusion of potentially important costs. CONCLUSION: Denials of coverage for treatment in a clinical trial limit patient access to trials and could impede clinical research. Preliminary estimates suggest changes to these policies would not be expensive, but these results are not generalizable. The Cost of Cancer Treatment Study is an ongoing effort to provide generalizable estimates of the incremental treatment cost of phase II and phase III cancer trials. The results should be of great interest to insurers and the research community as they consider permanent ways to finance cancer trials.

An outbreak of type C botulism in 12 horses and a mule.

A USDA Early Response Team investigated deaths of several horses and a mule in northern Arizona at the request of local animal health officials. Thirteen animals (12 horses and 1 mule) housed at 5 facilities in a 7.4 square mile area died between August 1998 and January 1999. Clinical signs consisted of muscular weakness that rapidly progressed to lateral recumbency. Ten animals had paresis of the tongue, throat, or lips. Affected animals appeared alert and were interested in eating and drinking, even while recumbent. All 13 animals were euthanatized. Clostridium botulinum type C was isolated from feces or intestinal contents from 3 affected horses. Preformed toxin was detected in samples of soil and bird droppings collected from a nearby horse burial site. It was hypothesized that the outbreak was a result of birds, presumably ravens, feeding at the burial site and at horse facilities in the area that transferred toxin to the affected animals.

Impact of disseminating quality improvement programs for depression in managed primary care: a randomized controlled trial.

CONTEXT: Care of patients with depression in managed primary care settings often fails to meet guideline standards, but the long-term impact of quality improvement (QI) programs for depression care in such settings is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine if QI programs in managed care practices for depressed primary care patients improve quality of care, health outcomes, and employment. DESIGN: Randomized controlled trial initiated from June 1996 to March 1997. SETTING: Forty-six primary care clinics in 6 US managed care organizations. PARTICIPANTS: Of 27332 consecutively screened patients, 1356 with current depressive symptoms and either 12-month, lifetime, or no depressive disorder were enrolled. INTERVENTIONS: Matched clinics were randomized to usual care (mailing of practice guidelines) or to 1 of 2 QI programs that involved institutional commitment to QI, training local experts and nurse specialists to provide clinician and patient education, identification of a pool of potentially depressed patients, and either nurses for medication follow-up or access to trained psychotherapists. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Process of care (use of antidepressant medication, mental health specialty counseling visits, medical visits for mental health problems, any medical visits), health outcomes (probable depression and health-related quality of life [HRQOL]), and employment at baseline and at 6- and 12-month follow-up. RESULTS: Patients in QI (n = 913) and control (n = 443) clinics did not differ significantly at baseline in service use, HRQOL, or employment after nonresponse weighting. At 6 months, 50.9% of QI patients and 39.7% of controls had counseling or used antidepressant medication at an appropriate dosage (P<.001), with a similar pattern at 12 months (59.2% vs 50.1%; P = .006). There were no differences in probability of having any medical visit at any point (each P > or = .21). At 6 months, 47.5% of QI patients and 36.6% of controls had a medical visit for mental health problems (P = .001), and QI patients were more likely to see a mental health specialist at 6 months (39.8% vs 27.2%; P<.001) and at 12 months (29.1% vs 22.7%; P = .03). At 6 months, 39.9% of QI patients and 49.9% of controls still met criteria for probable depressive disorder (P = .001), with a similar pattern at 12 months (41.6% vs 51.2%; P = .005). Initially employed QI patients were more likely to be working at 12 months relative to controls (P = .05). CONCLUSIONS: When these managed primary care practices implemented QI programs that improve opportunities for depression treatment without mandating it, quality of care, mental health outcomes, and retention of employment of depressed patients improved over a year, while medical visits did not increase overall.

Quality of care for primary care patients with depression in managed care.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the process and quality of care for primary care patients with depression under managed care organizations. METHOD: Surveys of 1204 outpatients with depression at the time of and after a visit to 1 of 181 primary care clinicians from 46 primary care clinics in 7 managed care organizations. Patients had depressive symptoms in the previous 30 days, with or without a 12-month depressive disorder by diagnostic interview. Process indicators were depression counseling, mental health referral, or psychotropic medication management at index visit and the use of appropriate antidepressant medication during the last 6 months. RESULTS: Of patients with depressive disorder and recent symptoms, 29% to 43% reported a depression-specific process of care in the index visit, and 35% to 42% used antidepressant medication in appropriate dosages in the prior 6 months. Patients with depressive disorders rather than symptoms only and those with comorbid anxiety had higher rates of depression-specific processes and quality of care (P < .005). Recurrent depression, suicidal ideation, and alcohol abuse were not uniquely associated with such rates. Patients visiting for old problems or checkups received more depression-specific care than those with new problems or unscheduled visits. The 7 managed care organizations varied by a factor of 2-fold in rates of depression counseling and appropriate anti-depressant use. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of process and quality of care for depression as reported by patients are moderate to low in managed primary care practices. Such rates are higher for patients with more severe forms of depression or with comorbid anxiety, but not for those with severe but "silent" symptoms like suicide ideation. Visit context factors, such as whether the visit is scheduled, affect rates of depression-specific care. Rates of care for depression are highly variable among managed care organizations, emphasizing the need for process monitoring and quality improvement for depression at the organizational level.

How expensive are unlimited substance abuse benefits under managed care?

Substance abuse (SA) care has been excluded from recent federal and state legislation mandating equal benefits for mental health and medical care ("parity"), largely because of cost concerns. This article studies how many patients are affected by SA coverage limits and the likely implications of limits on insurance payments, using 1996-97 claims from 25 managed care plans with unlimited SA benefits. Changing even stringent limits on annual SA benefits has a small absolute effect on overall insurance costs under managed care, even though a large percentage of SA patients are affected. Removing an annual limit of $10,000 per year on SA care is estimated to increase insurance payments by about 6 cents per member per year, removing a limit of $1,000 increases payments by about $3.40. As long as care is comprehensively managed, "parity" for SA in employer-sponsored health plans is not very costly.

Costs and utilization of substance abuse care in a privately insured population under managed care.

OBJECTIVE: Cost and utilization patterns of substance abuse and mental health treatment under private, employer-sponsored, managed behavioral health care plans were examined. METHODS: Data were from claims made in 1995 in 93 behavioral health care plans covering 617,133 members. Rates of use of mental health and substance abuse care were determined, as were payments by insurers and patients for the two types of care. Means were calculated per plan member and per user of either of these service types. RESULTS: Approximately .3 percent of plan members used any substance abuse services; 5.2 percent used mental health services. However, among substance abuse patients, average costs were more than twice as high as average costs for mental health patients. For substance abuse treatment, the annual cost per user was $2,188, compared with $979 for users of mental health care. Annual per-member costs were $6.51 for substance abuse treatment and $50.08 for mental health care. Higher costs for substance abuse treatment reflected greater rates of use of both inpatient and intensive outpatient treatment. Overall, substance abuse costs represented 13 percent of insurance payments for behavioral health care and perhaps .4 percent of the cost of health insurance overall. CONCLUSIONS: Substance abuse coverage accounts for a small fraction of insurance payments for behavioral health coverage and a very small fraction of insurance payments for both physical and behavioral health care.

A successful, preventive-oriented village health worker program in Hebron, the West Bank, 1985-1996.

Village health rooms (VHRs) were established in villages with no on-site health facilities in the Hebron District of the West Bank, beginning in 1985. By 1991, the program served a total population of 40,000 in 49 VHRs and by the end of 1996 covered 69 villages in Hebron and 20 in other districts that were previously served by visiting vaccination teams and nearby clinics. The VHRs provide close contact with the population of mothers for well child and pregnancy care, health education and provide visiting doctor/nurse teams for backup services and supervision. Data on coverage, utilization, costs, and outcome measures are presented. The program is accepted and grows despite adverse social and political conditions.

Do smokers understand the mortality effects of smoking? Evidence from the Health and Retirement Survey.

OBJECTIVES: This study examined whether smokers recognize that smoking is likely to shorten their lives and, if so, whether they understand the magnitude of this effect. METHODS: People's expectations about their chances of reaching age 75 were compared with epidemiological predictions from life tables for never, former, current light, and current heavy smokers. Data on expectations of reaching age 75 came from the Health and Retirement Survey, a national probability sample of adults aged 50 through 62 years. Predictions came from smoking-specific life tables constituted from the 1986 National Mortality Followback Survey and the 1985 and 1987 National Health Interview Surveys. RESULTS: Among men and women, the survival expectations of never, former, and current light smokers were close to actual predictions. However, among current heavy smokers, expectations of reaching age 75 were nearly twice as high as actuarial predictions. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that at least heavy smokers significantly underestimate their risk of premature mortality.

Race, socioeconomic status, and health: accounting for race differences in health.

This article uses the Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) study to examine the extent to which observed differences in the prevalence of chronic conditions and functional limitations between Black and White adults (aged 70+) in the United States can be attributed to differences in various aspects of socioeconomic status (SES) between these groups. We use linear and logistic regression techniques to model the relationships between health outcomes and SES. Our findings indicate that race differences in measurable socioeconomic characteristics indeed explain a substantial fraction, but in general not all, of Black/White differences in health status. While our findings do not suggest that low SES directly "causes" poor health, any more than being Black does so, they do suggest that research and policy intended to address the deficit in health status among Blacks (when compared to Whites) in the U.S. would be well-served to begin with the deficit in wealth, education, and other SES measures.