External validation of a lung cancer-based prediction model for two-year mortality in esophageal cancer patient cohorts.

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE: Chemo-radiotherapy can improve the oncological outcome of esophageal cancer (EC) patients, but may cause long term radiation-induced toxicity, including an increased risk of non-cancer related death. For lung cancer patients, a model to predict 2-year total mortality using mean heart dose (MHD) and gross tumor volume (GTV) has previously been developed and validated. This project aimed to externally validate this model in EC patients. METHODS: Five EC patient cohorts from 3 different Dutch centres were used for model validation. External validity of the model was assessed separately in definitive (n = 170) and neo-adjuvant (n = 568) chemoradiotherapy (dCRT and nCRT) patients. External validity was assessed in terms of calibration by calibration plots, calibration-in-the-large (CITL) and calibration slope (CS), and discrimination by assessment of the c-statistic. If suboptimal model performance was observed, the model was further updated accordingly. RESULTS: For the dCRT patients, good calibration was found after adjustment of the intercept (CITL 0.00; CS 1.08). The c-statistic of the adjusted model was 0.67 (95%CI: 0.58 to 0.75). For nCRT patients the model needed adjustment of both the slope and the intercept because of initial miscalibration in the validation population (CITL 0.00; CS 1.72). After recalibration, the model showed perfect calibration (i.e., CITL 0, CS 1), as is common after recalibration. The c-statistic of the recalibrated model equaled 0.62 (95%CI: 0.57 to 0.67). CONCLUSION: The existing model for 2-year mortality prediction in lung cancer patients, based on the predictive factors MHD and GTV, showed good performance in EC patients after updating the intercept and/or slope of the original model.

Comparing supervised and semi-supervised machine learning approaches in NTCP modeling to predict complications in head and neck cancer patients.

Background and purpose: Head and neck cancer (HNC) patients treated with radiotherapy often suffer from radiation-induced toxicities. Normal Tissue Complication Probability (NTCP) modeling can be used to determine the probability to develop these toxicities based on patient, tumor, treatment and dose characteristics. Since the currently used NTCP models are developed using supervised methods that discard unlabeled patient data, we assessed whether the addition of unlabeled patient data by using semi-supervised modeling would gain predictive performance. Materials and methods: The semi-supervised method of self-training was compared to supervised regression methods with and without prior multiple imputation by chained equation (MICE). The models were developed for the most common toxicity outcomes in HNC patients, xerostomia (dry mouth) and dysphagia (difficulty swallowing), measured at six months after treatment, in a development cohort of 750 HNC patients. The models were externally validated in a validation cohort of 395 HNC patients. Model performance was assessed by discrimination and calibration. Results: MICE and self-training did not improve performance in terms of discrimination or calibration at external validation compared to current regression models. In addition, the relative performance of the different models did not change upon a decrease in the amount of (labeled) data available for model development. Models using ridge regression outperformed the logistic models for the dysphagia outcome. Conclusion: Since there was no apparent gain in the addition of unlabeled patient data by using the semi-supervised method of self-training or MICE, the supervised regression models would still be preferred in current NTCP modeling for HNC patients.

Prediction of fetal and neonatal outcomes after preterm manifestations of placental insufficiency: systematic review of prediction models.

OBJECTIVES: To identify all prediction models for fetal and neonatal outcomes in pregnancies with preterm manifestations of placental insufficiency (gestational hypertension, pre-eclampsia, HELLP syndrome or fetal growth restriction with its onset before 37 weeks' gestation) and to assess the quality of the models and their performance on external validation. METHODS: A systematic literature search was performed in PubMed, Web of Science and EMBASE. Studies describing prediction models for fetal/neonatal mortality or significant neonatal morbidity in patients with preterm placental insufficiency disorders were included. Data extraction was performed using the CHARMS checklist. Risk of bias was assessed using PROBAST. Literature selection and data extraction were performed by two researchers independently. RESULTS: Our literature search yielded 22 491 unique publications. Fourteen were included after full-text screening of 218 articles that remained after initial exclusions. The studies derived a total of 41 prediction models, including four models in the setting of pre-eclampsia or HELLP, two models in the setting of fetal growth restriction and/or pre-eclampsia and 35 models in the setting of fetal growth restriction. None of the models was validated externally, and internal validation was performed in only two studies. The final models contained mainly ultrasound (Doppler) markers as predictors of fetal/neonatal mortality and neonatal morbidity. Discriminative properties were reported for 27/41 models (c-statistic between 0.6 and 0.9). Only two studies presented a calibration plot. The risk of bias was assessed as unclear in one model and high for all other models, mainly owing to the use of inappropriate statistical methods. CONCLUSIONS: We identified 41 prediction models for fetal and neonatal outcomes in pregnancies with preterm manifestations of placental insufficiency. All models were considered to be of low methodological quality, apart from one that had unclear methodological quality. Higher-quality models and external validation studies are needed to inform clinical decision-making based on prediction models. © 2023 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Androgen Deprivation therapy for Oligo-recurrent Prostate cancer in addition to radioTherapy (ADOPT): study protocol for a randomised phase III trial.

BACKGROUND: More than 60% of oligo-recurrent prostate cancer (PCa) patients treated with metastasis-directed radiotherapy (MDRT) develop biochemical recurrence within 2 years. This recurrence rate emphasises the need for improved treatment and patient selection. In line with the treatment of primary PCa, the efficacy of MDRT may be enhanced when combined with androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT). Furthermore, the availability of PSMA PET/CT offers an excellent tool for optimal patient selection for MDRT. This phase III randomised controlled trial will investigate the role of the addition of ADT to MDRT in oligo-recurrent PCa patients selected with PSMA PET/CT to enhance oncological outcome. METHODS: Two hundred and eighty patients will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio to the standard treatment arm (MDRT alone) or the experimental arm (MDRT + 6 months ADT). Patients with biochemical recurrence after primary treatment of PCa presenting with ≤ 4 metastases will be included. The primary endpoint is the 2.5-year metastases progression-free survival (MPFS). Secondary endpoints are acute and late toxicity, quality of life, biochemical progression-free survival, overall survival, and the sensitivity of the PSMA PET/CT for detecting oligometastases at low PSA-levels. So far, between March 2020 and December 2021, one hundred patients have been included. DISCUSSION: This phase III randomised controlled trial will assess the possible benefit of the addition of 6 months ADT to MDRT on metastases progression-free survival, toxicity, QoL and survival in PCa patients with 1-4 recurrent oligometastatic lesions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04302454 . Registered 10 March 2020.

Phase III randomised controlled trial on PSMA PET/CT guided hypofractionated salvage prostate bed radiotherapy of biochemical failure after radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer (PERYTON-trial): study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Salvage external beam radiotherapy (sEBRT) for patients with a biochemical recurrence (BCR) after radical prostatectomy provides a 5-year biochemical progression-free survival up to 60%. Multiple studies have shown that dose escalation to the primary prostate tumour improves treatment outcome. However, data is lacking on the role of dose escalation in the recurrent salvage setting. The main objective of the PERYTON-trial is to investigate whether treatment outcome of sEBRT for patients with a BCR after prostatectomy can be improved by increasing the biological effective radiation dose using hypofractionation. Moreover, patients will be staged using the PSMA PET/CT scan, which is superior to conventional imaging modalities in detecting oligometastases. METHODS: The PERYTON-study is a prospective multicentre open phase III randomised controlled trial. We aim to include 538 participants (269 participants per treatment arm) with a BCR after prostatectomy, a PSA-value of < 1.0 ng/mL and a recent negative PSMA PET/CT scan. Participants will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio between the conventional fractionated treatment arm (35 × 2 Gy) and the experimental hypofractionated treatment arm (20 × 3 Gy). The primary endpoint is the 5-year progression-free survival after treatment. The secondary endpoints include toxicity, quality of life and disease specific survival. DISCUSSION: Firstly, the high rate of BCR after sEBRT may be due to the presence of oligometastases, for which local sEBRT is inappropriate. With the use of the PSMA PET/CT before sEBRT, patients with oligometastases will be excluded from intensive local treatment to avoid unnecessary toxicity. Secondly, the currently applied radiation dose for sEBRT may be too low to achieve adequate local control, which may offer opportunity to enhance treatment outcome of sEBRT by increasing the biologically effective radiotherapy dose to the prostate bed. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (Identifier: NCT04642027 ). Registered on 24 November 2020 - Retrospectively registered. The study protocol was approved by the accredited Medical Ethical Committee (METc) of all participating hospitals (date METc review: 23-06-2020, METc registration number: 202000239). Written informed consent will be obtained from all participants.

Model-Based Selection for Proton Therapy in Breast Cancer: Development of the National Indication Protocol for Proton Therapy and First Clinical Experiences.

AIMS: Proton therapy is a radiation technique that yields less dose in normal tissues than photon therapy. In the Netherlands, proton therapy is reimbursed if the reduced dose to normal tissues is predicted to translate into a prespecified reduction in toxicity, based on nationally approved validated models. The aim of this paper is to present the development of a national indication protocol for proton therapy (NIPP) for model-based selection of breast cancer patients and to report on first clinical experiences. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A national proton therapy working group for breast cancer (PWG-BC) screened the literature for prognostic models able to estimate the individual risk of specific radiation-induced side-effects. After critical appraisal and selection of suitable models, a NIPP for breast cancer was written and subjected to comments by all stakeholders. The approved NIPP was subsequently introduced to select breast cancer patients who would benefit most from proton therapy. RESULTS: The model of Darby et al. (N Engl J Med 2013; 368:987-82) was the only model fulfilling the criteria prespecified by the PWG-BC. The model estimates the relative risk of an acute coronary event (ACE) based on the mean heart dose. The absolute lifetime risk of ACE <80 years was calculated by applying this model to the Dutch absolute incidence of ACE for female and male patients, between 40 and 70 years at breast cancer radiotherapy, with/without cardiovascular risk factors. The NIPP was approved for reimbursement in January 2019. Based on a threshold value of a 2% absolute lower risk on ACE for proton therapy compared with photons, 268 breast cancer patients have been treated in the Netherlands with proton therapy between February 2019 and January 2021. CONCLUSION: The NIPP includes a model that allows the estimation of the absolute risk on ACE <80 years based on mean heart dose. In the first 2 years, 268 breast cancer patients have been treated with proton therapy in The Netherlands.

Prognostic model for predicting survival in very preterm infants: an external validation study.

OBJECTIVE: To perform a temporal and geographical validation of a prognostic model, considered of highest methodological quality in a recently published systematic review, for predicting survival in very preterm infants admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit. The original model was developed in the UK and included gestational age, birthweight and gender. DESIGN: External validation study in a population-based cohort. SETTING: Dutch neonatal wards. POPULATION OR SAMPLE: All admitted white, singleton infants born between 23+0 and 32+6 weeks of gestation between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2019. Additionally, the model's performance was assessed in four populations of admitted infants born between 24+0 and 31+6 weeks of gestation: white singletons, non-white singletons, all singletons and all multiples. METHODS: The original model was applied in all five validation sets. Model performance was assessed in terms of calibration and discrimination and, if indicated, it was updated. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Calibration (calibration-in-the-large and calibration slope) and discrimination (c statistic). RESULTS: Out of 6092 infants, 5659 (92.9%) survived. The model showed good external validity as indicated by good discrimination (c statistic 0.82, 95% CI 0.79-0.84) and calibration (calibration-in-the-large 0.003, calibration slope 0.92, 95% CI 0.84-1.00). The model also showed good external validity in the other singleton populations, but required a small intercept update in the multiples population. CONCLUSIONS: A high-quality prognostic model predicting survival in very preterm infants had good external validity in an independent, nationwide cohort. The accurate performance of the model indicates that after impact assessment, implementation of the model in clinical practice in the neonatal intensive care unit could be considered. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: A high-quality model predicting survival in very preterm infants is externally valid in an independent cohort.

Change in cervical length after arrested preterm labor and risk of preterm birth.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between preterm birth and cervical length after arrested preterm labor in high-risk pregnant women. METHODS: In this post-hoc analysis of a randomized clinical trial, transvaginal cervical length was measured in women whose contractions had ceased 48 h after admission for threatened preterm labor. At admission, women were defined as having a high risk of preterm birth based on a cervical length of < 15 mm or a cervical length of 15-30 mm with a positive fetal fibronectin test. Logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the association of cervical length measured at least 48 h after admission and of the change in cervical length between admission and at least 48 h later, with preterm birth before 34 weeks' gestation and delivery within 7 days after admission. RESULTS: A total of 164 women were included in the analysis. Women whose cervical length increased between admission for threatened preterm labor and 48 h later (32%; n = 53) were found to have a lower risk of preterm birth before 34 weeks compared with women whose cervical length did not change (adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 0.24 (95% CI, 0.09-0.69)). The risk in women with a decrease in cervical length between the two timepoints was not different from that in women with no change in cervical length (aOR, 1.45 (95% CI, 0.62-3.41)). Moreover, greater absolute cervical length after 48 h was associated with a lower risk of preterm birth before 34 weeks (aOR, 0.90 (95% CI, 0.84-0.96)) and delivery within 7 days after admission (aOR, 0.91 (95% CI, 0.82-1.02)). Sensitivity analysis in women randomized to receive no intervention showed comparable results. CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that the risk of preterm birth before 34 weeks is lower in women whose cervical length increases between admission for threatened preterm labor and at least 48 h later when contractions had ceased compared with women in whom cervical length does not change or decreases. © 2021 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Vaginal delivery in women with a low-lying placenta: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Low-lying placentas are positioned close to the internal os of the cervix. The preferred way of delivery within this group is unclear. OBJECTIVES: To review the literature on the success of a vaginal delivery with a low-lying placenta. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched OVID EMBASE and MEDLINE for studies on vaginal delivery with a low-lying placenta. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSES: Data was extracted on successful vaginal delivery and emergency caesarean section due to haemorrhage. We distinguished between different distances between the cervical os and the placenta (internal os distance, IOD); 0-10, 11-20, and >20 mm. A meta-analysis of proportions was made for successful vaginal delivery and emergency caesarean section at every cut-off value. Maternal morbidity (i.e. antepartum blood loss, postpartum haemorrhage and blood transfusion) at different cut-off values was evaluated. MAIN RESULTS: Of the 999 articles retrieved, 10 articles met our inclusion criteria. A vaginal delivery was successful at an IOD of 0-10 mm in 43%, at an IOD of 11-20 mm in 85%, and at an IOD of >20 mm in 82%. A shorter IOD had a higher chance of antepartum haemorrhage, whereas a larger IOD needed postpartum blood transfusion more often. Postpartum haemorrhage did not depend on IOD. CONCLUSION: A low-lying placenta is not a contraindication for a trial of labour, and the morbidity in these women is not increased. However, women with a low-lying placenta have a higher chance of an emergency caesarean section compared with women with a placenta outside the lower uterine segment. Therefore, shared decision-making is mandatory in case of a trial of labour. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: This systematic review demonstrates the possibility of a vaginal delivery in women with a low-lying placenta within 20 mm of the cervix.

Correlation between neonatal outcomes of twins depends on the outcome: secondary analysis of twelve randomised controlled trials.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the magnitude of the correlation between neonatal outcomes of twins and demonstrate how this information can be used in the design of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in women with twin pregnancies. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of data from 12 RCTs. SETTING: Obstetric care in multiple countries, 2004-2012. POPULATION OR SAMPLE: 4504 twin pairs born to women who participated in RCTs to assess treatments given during pregnancy. METHODS: Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) were estimated using log-binomial and linear models. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Perinatal death, respiratory distress syndrome, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, intraventricular haemorrhage, necrotising enterocolitis, sepsis, neonatal intensive care unit admission, birthweight, low birthweight and two composite measures of adverse neonatal outcome. RESULTS: ICCs for the composite measures of adverse neonatal outcome were all above 0.5, indicating moderate to strong correlation between adverse outcomes of twins. For individual neonatal outcomes, median ICCs across trials ranged from 0.13 to 0.79 depending on the outcome. An example illustrates how ICCs can be used in sample size calculations for RCTs in women with twin pregnancies. CONCLUSIONS: The correlation between neonatal outcomes of twins varies considerably between outcomes and may be lower than expected. Our ICC estimates can be used for designing and analysing RCTs that recruit women with twin pregnancies and for performing meta-analyses that include such RCTs. Researchers are encouraged to report ICCs for neonatal outcomes in twins in their own RCTs. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Correlation between neonatal outcomes of twins depends on the outcome and may be lower than expected.

Pessary for prevention of preterm birth in twin pregnancy with short cervix: 3-year follow-up study.

OBJECTIVE: A recent randomized clinical trial (ProTWIN) showed that a cervical pessary prevented preterm birth and improved neonatal outcome in women with multiple pregnancy and cervical length (CL) < 38 mm. In this follow-up study, the long-term developmental outcome of these children was evaluated at 3 years' corrected age. METHODS: This was a follow-up study of ProTWIN, a multicenter trial conducted between 2009 and 2012 in which asymptomatic women with a multiple pregnancy were randomized to placement of a cervical pessary or no intervention. Current follow-up and analysis were limited to mothers with a mid-trimester CL < 38 mm (78 women (157 children) in the pessary group and 55 women (111 children) in the control group). At 3 years of corrected age, surviving children were invited for a Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development-third edition (Bayley-III) assessment. Death after randomization or neurodevelopmental disability (Bayley-III score of ≤ 85, 1 SD below mean) rates were compared between the pessary and control groups, according to the intention-to-treat principle and using multiple imputation for missing data. Mean Bayley-III scores in surviving children were also assessed. A linear mixed-effects model was used to adjust for correlation between children of one mother. RESULTS: From the time of entry in the ProTWIN trial until follow-up at 3 years of age, a total of 27 children had died (six (5%) in the pessary vs 21 (26%) in the control group; odds ratio (OR), 0.13; 95% CI, 0.04-0.48). Bayley-III outcomes were collected for 173/241 (72%) surviving children (114 (75%) in the pessary vs 59 (66%) in the control group). The cumulative incidence of death or survival with a neurodevelopmental disability was 12 (10%) in the pessary vs 23 (29%) in the control group (OR, 0.26; 95% CI, 0.09-0.73). No statistical or clinically relevant differences were found with respect to cognitive, language and motor development among surviving children between the groups. Comparable results were found after multiple imputation. CONCLUSION: In women with twin pregnancy and a CL < 38 mm, the use of a cervical pessary strongly improved survival of the children without affecting neurodevelopment at 3 years' corrected age. Copyright © 2018 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Overlapping network meta-analyses on the same topic: survey of published studies.

Background: To assess how common it is for a published network meta-analysis (NMA) to have other published overlapping NMAs, and to evaluate these overlaps. Methods: A total of 88 NMAs of randomized controlled trials evaluating the comparative effectiveness of health interventions were randomly selected. For each of these, we searched for NMAs on the same topic. A random sample of 40 pairs (an index NMA and one of its overlapping NMAs) was selected to assess the overlap in terms of nodes, treatments and references. The topic with the largest number of overlapping NMAs was described in depth. Results: In all, 68 of the 88 index NMAs had at least one overlapping NMA: 77% [95% confidence interval (CI), 69-86%]. We identified 515 pairs of overlapping NMAs. Among the 40 randomly selected pairs, 73% (95% CI, 58-88%) of nodes, 79% (95% CI, 72-86%) of treatments and 48% (95% CI, 37-59%) of references included in the index NMAs were also found in the respective overlapping NMAs. Efficacy of biologics in rheumatoid arthritis had the largest number of overlapping NMAs, with 28 NMAs published between 2003 and 2014. Differences in selection and definition of nodes of treatments resulted in different network geometries. There were also differences in both the direction and the statistical significance of effects. Conclusions: Published NMAs exhibit extensive overlap and potential redundancy. Erratic retrieval of eligible trials, and lack of consensus on the range of interventions to be considered and how they might be merged or split in different nodes, may cause confusion.

Does the effect of one-day simulation team training in obstetric emergencies decline within one year? A post-hoc analysis of a multicentre cluster randomised controlled trial.

Does the effect of one-day simulation team training in obstetric emergencies decline within one year? A post-hoc analysis of a multicentre cluster randomised controlled trial. J van de Ven, AF Fransen, E Schuit, PJ van Runnard Heimel, BW Mol, SG Oei OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the effect of a one-day simulation-based obstetric team training on patient outcome changes over time. STUDY DESIGN: Post-hoc analysis of a multicentre, open, randomised controlled trial that evaluated team training in obstetrics (TOSTI study).We studied women with a singleton pregnancy beyond 24 weeks of gestation in 24 obstetric units. Included obstetric units were randomised to either a one-day, multi-professional simulation-based team training focusing on crew resource management in a medical simulation centre (12 units) or to no team training (12 units). We assessed whether outcomes differed between both groups in each of the first four quarters following the team training and compared the effect of team training over quarters. Primary outcome was a composite outcome of low Apgar score, severe postpartum haemorrhage, trauma due to shoulder dystocia, eclampsia and hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy. RESULTS: During a one year period after the team training the rate of obstetric complications, both on the composite level and the individual component level, did not differ between any of the quarters. For trauma due to shoulder dystocia team training led to a significant decrease in the first quarter (0.06% versus 0.26%, OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.98) but in the subsequent quarters no significant reductions were observed. Similar results were found for invasive treatment for severe postpartum haemorrhage where a significant increase was only seen in the first quarter (0.4% versus 0.03%, OR 19, 95% CI 2.5-147), and not thereafter. CONCLUSION: The beneficial effect of a one-day, simulation-based, multiprofessional, obstetric team training seems to decline after three months. If team training is further evaluated or implemented, repetitive training sessions every three months seem therefore recommended.

Simulation-based team training for multi-professional obstetric care teams to improve patient outcome: a multicentre, cluster randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether simulation-based obstetric team training in a simulation centre improves patient outcome. DESIGN: Multicentre, open, cluster randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Obstetric units in the Netherlands. POPULATION: Women with a singleton pregnancy beyond 24 weeks of gestation. METHODS: Random allocation of obstetric units to a 1-day, multi-professional, simulation-based team training focusing on crew resource management (CRM) in a simulation centre or to no such team training. Intention-to-treat analyses were performed at the cluster level, including a measurement 1 year prior to the intervention. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was a composite outcome of obstetric complications during the first year post-intervention, including low Apgar score, severe postpartum haemorrhage, trauma due to shoulder dystocia, eclampsia and hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy. Maternal and perinatal mortality were also registered. RESULTS: Each study group included 12 units with a median unit size of 1224 women, combining for a total of 28 657 women. In total, 471 medical professionals received the training course. The composite outcome of obstetric complications did not differ between study groups [odds ratio (OR) 1.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.80-1.3]. Team training reduced trauma due to shoulder dystocia (OR 0.50, 95% CI 0.25-0.99) and increased invasive treatment for severe postpartum haemorrhage (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.2-3.9) compared with no intervention. Other outcomes did not differ between study groups. CONCLUSION: A 1-day, off-site, simulation-based team training, focusing on teamwork skills, did not reduce a composite of obstetric complications. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: 1-day, off-site, simulation-based team training did not reduce a composite of obstetric complications.

Influence of cut-off value on prevalence of short cervical length.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the distribution of cervical length (CL) in a large cohort of asymptomatic low-risk women with singleton pregnancy and no previous preterm birth and to explain the low prevalence of short CL ≤ 30 mm in this cohort. METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of a multicenter cohort study with an embedded randomized controlled trial (Triple P trial; NTR-2078) on the prevention of preterm birth with progesterone. In the cohort study, CL was measured in asymptomatic low-risk women with singleton pregnancy to investigate its predictive capacity to identify those at increased risk for preterm birth. A short CL was defined by a cut-off value of ≤ 30 mm, based on existing literature. Women with a short CL were subsequently included in a randomized controlled trial evaluating the effect of progesterone, compared with placebo, on preterm birth. In total, 57 centers and 20 234 women participated in the study. Normal distributions for CL were simulated based on the mean and SD of the original data. The distribution of CL was assessed for each individual center and measurements were compared between levels of care: primary (29 ultrasound centers), secondary (21 general hospitals) and tertiary (seven university medical centers) care institutions. Comparison was also performed between centers with low, intermediate and high volume of CL measurements. CL distributions before (n = 12 284 women) and after (n = 7950 women) a national symposium, at which the prevalence of short CL measurements was addressed publicly, were analyzed. RESULTS: Between November 2009 and August 2013, 20 234 women had CL measurements, of whom 367 (1.8%) had a short CL. Mean ± SD CL was 44.2 ± 7.8 mm. A 'dip' in the distribution of CL measurements between 20 and 30 mm was observed, defined by a ratio of < 50% when comparing the number of measurements in observed and simulated normal distributions. The dip was present in 89% of participating centers. All centers showed a dip in the distribution of measurements ≤ 30 mm when analyzed according to the level of care and volume of measurements. A significant difference was found when comparing the distribution before and after publicly addressing the low prevalence of short CL (1.7% vs 2.0% of measurements were ≤ 30 mm, respectively; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: A cut-off value of 30 mm for CL was used to include women in a randomized clinical trial that was embedded in a cohort study. We suggest that the use of a predefined cut-off value for a short cervix influences the distribution of the CL measurements. Since the measurement is not blinded, preference of assessors for the control or intervention arms may have introduced selection bias. This might have resulted in fewer measurements around the cut-off value. Other trials using similar designs could benefit from this observation and take precautions to avoid selection bias. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Nifedipine maintenance tocolysis and perinatal outcome: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth is the leading cause of neonatal mortality and morbidity in developed countries. Whether continued tocolysis after 48 hours of rescue tocolysis improves neonatal outcome is unproven. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effectiveness of maintenance tocolytic therapy with oral nifedipine on the reduction of adverse neonatal outcomes and the prolongation of pregnancy by performing an individual patient data meta-analysis (IPDMA). SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane databases for randomised controlled trials of maintenance tocolysis therapy with nifedipine in preterm labour. SELECTION CRITERIA: We selected trials including pregnant women between 24 and 36(6/7)  weeks of gestation (gestational age, GA) with imminent preterm labour who had not delivered after 48 hours of initial tocolysis, and compared maintenance nifedipine tocolysis with placebo/no treatment. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: The primary outcome was perinatal mortality. Secondary outcome measures were intraventricular haemorrhage (IVH), necrotising enterocolitis (NEC), infant respiratory distress syndrome (IRDS), prolongation of pregnancy, GA at delivery, birthweight, neonatal intensive care unit admission, and number of days on ventilation support. Pre-specified subgroup analyses were performed. MAIN RESULTS: Six randomised controlled trials were included in this IPDMA, encompassing data from 787 patients (n = 390 for nifedipine; n = 397 for placebo/no treatment). There was no difference between the groups for the incidence of perinatal death (risk ratio, RR 1.36; 95% confidence interval, 95% CI 0.35-5.33), intraventricular haemorrhage (IVH) ≥ grade II (RR 0.65; 95% CI 0.16-2.67), necrotising enterocolitis (NEC) (RR 1.15; 95% CI 0.50-2.65), infant respiratory distress syndrome (IRDS) (RR 0.98; 95% CI 0.51-1.85), and prolongation of pregnancy (hazard ratio, HR 0.74; 95% CI 0.55-1.01). CONCLUSION: Maintenance tocolysis is not associated with improved perinatal outcome and is therefore not recommended for routine practice. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Nifedipine maintenance tocolysis is not associated with improved perinatal outcome or pregnancy prolongation.

A multivariable model to guide the decision for pessary placement to prevent preterm birth in women with a multiple pregnancy: a secondary analysis of the ProTWIN trial.

OBJECTIVE: The ProTWIN Trial (NTR1858) showed that, in women with a multiple pregnancy and a cervical length < 25(th) percentile (38 mm), prophylactic use of a cervical pessary reduced the risk of adverse perinatal outcome. We investigated whether other maternal or pregnancy characteristics collected at baseline can improve identification of women most likely to benefit from pessary placement. METHODS: ProTWIN is a multicenter randomized trial in which 808 women with a multiple pregnancy were assigned to pessary or control. Using these data we developed a multivariable logistic model comprising treatment, cervical length, chorionicity, pregnancy history and number of fetuses, and the interaction of these variables with treatment as predictors of adverse perinatal outcome. RESULTS: Short cervix, monochorionicity and nulliparity were predictive factors for a benefit from pessary insertion. History of previous preterm birth and triplet pregnancy were predictive factors of possible harm from pessary. The model identified 35% of women as benefiting (95% CI, 32-39%), which is 10% more than using cervical length only (25%) for pessary decisions. The model had acceptable calibration. We estimated that using the model to guide the choice of pessary placement would reduce the risk of adverse perinatal outcome significantly from 13.5% when no pessary is inserted to 8.1% (absolute risk reduction, 5.4% (95% CI, 2.1-8.6%)). CONCLUSIONS: We developed and internally validated a multivariable treatment selection model, with cervical length, chorionicity, pregnancy history and number of fetuses. If externally validated, it could be used to identify women with a twin pregnancy who would benefit from a pessary, and lead to a reduction in adverse perinatal outcomes in these women. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.