Safe and just Earth system boundaries.

The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked1-3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)4. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.

Experimental evidence shows minor contribution of nitrogen deposition to global forest carbon sequestration.

Human activities have drastically increased nitrogen (N) deposition onto forests globally. This may have alleviated N limitation and thus stimulated productivity and carbon (C) sequestration in aboveground woody biomass (AGWB), a stable C pool with long turnover times. This 'carbon bonus' of human N use partly offsets the climate impact of human-induced N2 O emissions, but its magnitude and spatial variation are uncertain. Here we used a meta-regression approach to identify sources of heterogeneity in tree biomass C-N response (additional C stored per unit of N) based on data from fertilization experiments in global forests. We identified important drivers of spatial variation in forest biomass C-N response related to climate (potential evapotranspiration), soil fertility (N content) and tree characteristics (stand age), and used these relationships to quantify global spatial variation in N-induced forest biomass C sequestration. Results show that N deposition enhances biomass C sequestration in only one-third of global forests, mainly in the boreal region, while N reduces C sequestration in 5% of forests, mainly in the tropics. In the remaining 59% of global forests, N addition has no impact on biomass C sequestration. Average C-N responses were 11 (4-21) kg C per kg N for boreal forests, 4 (0-8) kg C per kg N for temperate forests and 0 (-4 to 5) kg C per kg N for tropical forests. Our global estimate of the N-induced forest biomass C sink of 41 (-53 to 159) Tg C yr-1 is substantially lower than previous estimates, mainly due to the absence of any response in most tropical forests (accounting for 58% of the global forest area). Overall, the N-induced C sink in AGWB only offsets ~5% of the climate impact of N2 O emissions (in terms of 100-year global warming potential), and contributes ~1% to the gross forest C sink.

Spatially explicit boundaries for agricultural nitrogen inputs in the European Union to meet air and water quality targets.

Agricultural production in the EU has increased strongly since the 1940s, partly driven by increased nitrogen (N) fertiliser and manure inputs. Increased N inputs and associated losses, however, adversely affect air and water quality, with widespread impacts on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and human health. Managing these impacts requires knowledge on 'safe boundaries' for N inputs, i.e., N flows that do not exceed environmental thresholds. We used a spatially explicit N balance model for the EU to derive boundaries for N losses and associated N inputs for three environmental thresholds: (i) N deposition onto natural areas to protect terrestrial biodiversity (critical N loads), (ii) N concentration in runoff to surface water (2.5 mg N l-1) to protect aquatic ecosystems and (iii) nitrate (NO3-) concentration in leachate to groundwater (50 mg NO l-1) to meet the EU drinking water standard. Critical N losses and inputs were calculated for ~40,000 unique soil-slope-climate combinations and then aggregated at country- and EU-level. To respect thresholds for N deposition, N inputs in the EU need to be reduced by 31% on average, ranging from 0% in several countries to 59% in Ireland and Denmark. The strongest reductions are required in intensive livestock regions, such as Benelux, Brittany and the Po valley. To respect thresholds for N concentration in runoff to surface water, N inputs need to be reduced by 43% on average, ranging from 2% in Estonia to 74% in the Netherlands. Average critical N inputs in view of the threshold for NO3- concentration in leachate to groundwater are close to actual (year 2010) inputs, even though leaching thresholds are exceeded in 18% of agricultural land. Critical N inputs and their exceedances presented in this paper can inform more targeted mitigation policies than flat-rate targets for N loss reductions currently mentioned in EU policies.

Global-scale impacts of nitrogen deposition on tree carbon sequestration in tropical, temperate, and boreal forests: A meta-analysis.

Elevated nitrogen (N) deposition may increase net primary productivity in N-limited terrestrial ecosystems and thus enhance the terrestrial carbon (C) sink. To assess the magnitude of this N-induced C sink, we performed a meta-analysis on data from forest fertilization experiments to estimate N-induced C sequestration in aboveground tree woody biomass, a stable C pool with long turnover times. Our results show that boreal and temperate forests responded strongly to N addition and sequestered on average an additional 14 and 13 kg C per kg N in aboveground woody biomass, respectively. Tropical forests, however, did not respond significantly to N addition. The common hypothesis that tropical forests do not respond to N because they are phosphorus-limited could not be confirmed, as we found no significant response to phosphorus addition in tropical forests. Across climate zones, we found that young forests responded more strongly to N addition, which is important as many previous meta-analyses of N addition experiments rely heavily on data from experiments on seedlings and young trees. Furthermore, the C-N response (defined as additional mass unit of C sequestered per additional mass unit of N addition) was affected by forest productivity, experimental N addition rate, and rate of ambient N deposition. The estimated C-N responses from our meta-analysis were generally lower that those derived with stoichiometric scaling, dynamic global vegetation models, and forest growth inventories along N deposition gradients. We estimated N-induced global C sequestration in tree aboveground woody biomass by multiplying the C-N responses obtained from the meta-analysis with N deposition estimates per biome. We thus derived an N-induced global C sink of about 177 (112-243) Tg C/year in aboveground and belowground woody biomass, which would account for about 12% of the forest biomass C sink (1,400 Tg C/year).