Joint inferences on vaccine efficacy against infection and disease with application to the first HIV vaccine efficacy trial.

In many clinical trials, subjects are followed for two stages of outcomes, and it is of interest to compare the incidence of each outcome between two randomized groups. The outcome of the first stage may influence the outcome of the second stage. Moreover, the relative risks of the two outcomes may be linked, with the time-dependent profile of relative risk for the second outcome functionally dependent on that of the first. For example, during exposure to HIV, virologic and host factors simultaneously impact the probability of infection and the subsequent viral trajectories, and the efficacy of a tested vaccine to prevent infection and to prevent viral failure may work in concert. We address this problem by modeling the relationship between the stage two hazard function and covariates via Cox's proportional hazards model (Cox, 1972), with the stage one log-hazard ratio theta(*) at the first event time Tl, included as a covariate. With theta(*) estimated using three methods, 1) nonparametric kernel smoothing; 2) locally parametric penalized splines; and 3) fully parametric cubic linear splines, we subsequently develop inference procedures for the regression parameter in the stage two Cox model based on each of the estimator of theta(*). The inferential procedures are studied in simulations and are illustrated with application to data from the world's first preventive HIV vaccine efficacy trial.

Treatment of primary human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection with potent antiretroviral therapy reduces frequency of rapid progression to AIDS.

Immunologic data supporting immediate antiretroviral therapy in primary human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection are emerging; however, clinical benefit has not been demonstrated. The clinical and virologic course of 47 patients who were enrolled from September 1993 through June 1996 and who were not initially treated with potent therapy was compared with the course of 20 patients who immediately began therapy with zidovudine, lamivudine, and indinavir. Demographic and baseline laboratory data were comparable. During 78 weeks of follow-up, the early-treatment cohort showed a reduced frequency of opportunistic infections (5% vs. 21.3%; relative risk, 0.11; P=.02), less frequent progression to AIDS (13% vs. 0%), and significantly less frequent nonopportunistic mucocutaneous disorders and respiratory infections (P<.01). Plasma HIV-1 RNA levels were <50 copies/mL in all patients who continued therapy; however, after 9--12 months, HIV-1 remained detectable in latently infected CD4(+) T cells and in lymph node mononuclear cells. Combination antiretroviral therapy during primary HIV-1 infection demonstrated a decreased frequency of minor opportunistic infections, mucocutaneous disorders, and respiratory infections and reduced progression to AIDS.

Early HIV infection in vivo: branching-process model for studying timing of immune responses and drug therapy.

We propose a stochastic, branching-process model of early events in vivo in human or simian immunodeficiency virus (HIV or SIV) infection and study the influence that the time of appearance of virus-specific antibodies or cytotoxic cells, or of administration of antiretroviral drugs, has on the probability of progression to a chronic infection. In some biological scenarios, our model predicts that a few days' delay in response or intervention would make little difference, while in others it would be highly deleterious. We show that prophylactic efficacy does not require perfect efficiency at neutralizing infectious virus. Data from a trial of PMPA, a potent antiretroviral drug, as post-exposure therapy for SIV infection in macaques, reported by C.-C. Tsai, P. Emau, K.E. Follis, T.W. Beck, R. E. Beneveniste, N. Bischofberger, J.D. Lifson, W.R. Morton (J. Virol. 72 (1998) 4265), provides a test of the model. We show that their observations are consistent with a branching-process without invoking supplementary viral- or host-variability. Finally, most animal trials of antiviral drugs or vaccines use very high viral inoculums; our model demonstrates that in such experiments we risk greatly underestimating the efficacy of these agents.

Pregnancy after breast carcinoma: outcomes and influence on mortality.

BACKGROUND: To the authors' knowledge, no previous studies have identified an adverse effect of pregnancy on patient survival after breast carcinoma. However, results are difficult to interpret because of failure to control for stage of disease at the time the pregnancy occurred. METHODS: Study participants were women diagnosed with invasive breast carcinoma between 1983-1992 who previously had participated in a population-based case-control study or, if deceased, proxy respondents. Information regarding subsequent pregnancies was obtained by self-administered questionnaire or telephone interview. Information regarding breast carcinoma recurrences was obtained by questionnaire and from cancer registry abstracts. Women who became pregnant after a diagnosis of breast carcinoma (n = 53) were matched with women without subsequent pregnancies based on stage of disease at diagnosis and a recurrence free survival time in the comparison women greater than or equal to the interval between breast carcinoma diagnosis and onset of pregnancy in the women with a subsequent pregnancy. RESULTS: Sixty-eight percent of women who became pregnant after being diagnosed with breast carcinoma delivered one or more live-born infants. Miscarriages occurred in 24% of the patients who became pregnant compared with 18% of the controls (women without breast carcinoma) of similar ages from the case-control study. Five of the 53 women who had been pregnant after breast carcinoma died of the disease. The age-adjusted relative risk (RR) of death associated with any subsequent pregnancy was 0.8 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.3-2.3). All five deaths occurred among the 36 women who had a live birth (age-adjusted RR = 1.1; 95% CI, 0.4-3.7). CONCLUSIONS: The findings of the current study are based on a small number of deaths but do not suggest that pregnancy after a diagnosis of breast carcinoma has an adverse effect on survival.

Maternal factors and breast cancer risk among young women.

The results from previous studies have provided evidence to support the hypothesised association between intrauterine oestrogen exposure and subsequent risk of breast cancer. Information has not been available to study this relationship for several perinatal factors thought to be related to pregnancy oestrogen levels. Data collected from the mothers of women in two population-based case-control studies of breast cancer in women under the age of 45 years (510 case mothers, 436 control mothers) who were diagnosed between 1983 and 1992 in three western Washington counties were used to investigate further the relationship between intrauterine oestrogen exposure and risk of breast cancer. A pregnancy weight gain of 25-34 pounds was associated with breast cancer risk (odds ratio [OR] = 1.5; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1, 2.0); however, women whose mothers gained 35 pounds or more were not at increased risk. Use of antiemetic medication in women with any nausea and vomiting (OR = 2.9; 95% CI 1.1, 8.1) and use of diethylstilboestrol (DES) (OR = 2.3; 95% CI 0.8, 6.4) appeared to be positively associated with breast cancer risk. The results from this study provide limited support for the hypothesis that in utero oestrogen exposure may be related to subsequent breast cancer risk among young women.

Statistical methods for assessing differential vaccine protection against human immunodeficiency virus types.

The human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) is extremely diverse. In assessing the utility of an HIV-1 vaccine, an important issue is the possibility of differential protection. We discuss statistical methods of inferring how the vaccine efficacy may vary with viral type from data that would be collected from a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled preventive vaccine efficacy trial. Detailed characterization of virus isolated from individuals infected during the trial will be available. We focus on the highly simplified case in which the viral characteristics are summarized by a single feature, which may be nominal, or a scalar quantity that represents distance between the isolate and the prototype virus or viruses used in the vaccine preparation. We consider discrete categorical and continuous response models for this quantity and identify models whose parameters can be interpreted as log ratios of strain-specific relative risks of infection in a prospective model for HIV-1 exposure and transmission. Methods of inference are described for the multinomial logistic regression (MLR) model for discrete categorical response, and a new semiparametric model which can be viewed as a continuous analog of the MLR model is introduced. The methods are illustrated by application to HIV-1 and hepatitis B vaccine trial data.

Risk of recurrence after ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast.

A cohort study was conducted to estimate the risk of breast cancer recurrence among women diagnosed with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) and to identify tumor or patient characteristics that influence that risk. A population-based cancer registry was used to identify a cohort of 709 female residents of western Washington who were diagnosed with DCIS between January 1980 and June 1992 and were treated with breast-conserving surgery. Information about breast cancer recurrences, treatment, and several patient characteristics and exposures was obtained from postal questionnaires. Recurrences were confirmed using information from the cancer registry or hospital pathology reports. Approximately 15% of women experienced a recurrence within the first 5 years after diagnosis [95% confidence interval (CI), 12-18%]; 31% had a recurrence within 10 years (95% CI, 24-38%). There was a suggestion that risk was slightly elevated for women with larger tumors (> or =1.5 cm) and tumors of comedo subtype. Relative risks (RRs) were elevated for women who were premenopausal at diagnosis of DCIS (RR = 2.3; 95% CI, 1.1-5.0). Women in the upper decile of body mass index were at twice the risk of a recurrence as those women in the lower four deciles (RR = 2.3; 95% CI, 1.1-4.8). There was also a suggestion that women who used menopausal hormones for at least 2 years after their diagnosis of DCIS were at increased risk of recurrence compared to nonusers of menopausal hormones (RR = 1.8; 95% CI, 0.7-5.0). Our results suggest that the risk of recurrence may be related to some tumor characteristics as well as the hormonal milieu of the patient at or after her diagnosis of DCIS. However, larger studies are needed to more clearly document predictors of disease recurrence after DCIS.

Validity and reliability of subject and mother reporting of perinatal factors.

The authors used data from a population-based case-control study of breast cancer in women aged < or = 44 years (cases, n = 975; controls, n = 866) conducted between 1994 and 1996 in three counties of western Washington state to assess the validity and reliability of reported perinatal factors. For a sample of participants, exposure information from self-administered questionnaires was validated with information from birth certificates (cases, n = 378; controls, n = 283). Detailed information regarding perinatal characteristics of their daughters was also collected from subjects' mothers (case mothers, n = 510; control mothers, n = 436) to assess the reliability of subjects' reporting of these events. Although reporting of birth weight by subjects (cases, r = 0.83; controls, r = 0.80) and their mothers (case mothers, r = 0.89; control mothers, r = 0.84) was highly correlated with the birth certificates, there was differential measurement error by subjects; cases reported birth weight accurately on average, but controls tended to underestimate their birth weight. Agreement between the subject and mother report was excellent for birth weight (cases, r = 0.85; controls, r = 0.87) and good for other perinatal factors, but birth order and maternal diethylstilbestrol use were underreported among cases and reported accurately among controls. Differential measurement error of birth weight by case-control status resulted in biased odds ratios for breast cancer risk.

Randomized trial of breast self-examination in Shanghai: methodology and preliminary results.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of breast self-examination in helping to reduce mortality from breast cancer has not been rigorously demonstrated. PURPOSE: To assess efficacy, a large, randomized trial was initiated in Shanghai, China. METHODS: From October 1989 to October 1991, 267040 current and retired female employees associated with 520 factories in the Shanghai Textile Industry Bureau were randomly assigned on the basis of factory to either a self-examination instruction group (133375 women) or a control group (133665 women). The women were born within the period from 1925 through 1958. Women in the instruction group were given intensive training in breast self-examination, including the use of silicone breast models and personalized instruction, plus two subsequent reinforcement sessions and multiple reminders to practice the technique. Women in the control group were asked to attend training sessions on the prevention of low back pain. All women have been followed for the development of breast diseases and for death from breast cancer. RESULTS: A high level of participation during the first 4-5 years of the trial was documented among women in the instruction group. Randomly sampled women in this group demonstrated greater proficiency in detecting lumps in breast models than did randomly sampled women in the control group. Approximately equal numbers of breast cancers were detected in the two groups (331 in the instruction group and 322 in the control group) through 1994, which is the last year for which case-finding efforts have been completed. The breast cancers detected in the instruction group were not diagnosed at an appreciably earlier stage or smaller size than those in the control group. More benign breast lesions were detected in the instruction group than in the control group (1457 versus 623, respectively), suggesting a higher index of suspicion for women who received training. Cumulative breast cancer mortality rates through 5 years from entry into the study were nearly equivalent for the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Breast self-examination has not led to a reduction in mortality from breast cancer in this study cohort in the first several years since the trial began. A shift toward the diagnosis of disease at a less advanced stage in women given instruction has also not been demonstrated. Longer follow-up of participants in this trial is required before final assessment can be made of the efficacy of breast self-examination. IMPLICATIONS: At this time, there is insufficient evidence to recommend for or against the teaching of breast self-examination.

In situ and invasive cervical carcinoma in a cohort of infertile women.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the risk of cervical neoplasia associated with the use of ovulation-inducing agents such as clomiphene citrate (CC) DESIGN: Case-cohort study. SETTING: Infertility clinics in Seattle, Washington. PATIENTS: A cohort of 3,837 women evaluated for infertility at some time during 1974-1985. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Computer linkage with a population-based tumor registry was used to identify women diagnosed with cervical cancer before January 1, 1992. Data regarding infertility testing and treatment were abstracted from medical records for women who developed cancer and a randomly selected subcohort. RESULTS: Thirty-six women in the cohort developed in situ or invasive cervical cancer in comparison with an expected number of 67.8 cases (standardized incidence ratio = 0.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.4 to 0.7). Infertile women with fallopian tube abnormalities were at an increased risk of cervical cancer relative to women whose infertility was believed to be due to other causes. The risk among women who had taken CC was reduced relative to infertile women who had not used this drug (relative risk = 0.4, 95% CI 0.2 to 0.8). This association was present both in women with and without tubal abnormalities. However, the size of the reduction in risk was not influenced by duration of use. CONCLUSIONS: The hypothesis that use of antiestrogenic agents, such as CC, can lead to a reduced risk of cervical neoplasia warrants testing in other studies.

Risk of breast cancer in a cohort of infertile women.

The purpose of this study was to assess: (1) the risk of breast cancer associated with use of ovulation-inducing agents (such as clomiphene citrate) as treatment for infertility; and (2) the risk associated with ovulatory abnormalities that result in infertility. We performed a case-cohort study among 3837 women evaluated for infertility at clinics in Seattle, Washington, at some time during 1974-1985. Computer linkage with a population-based tumor registry was used to identify women diagnosed with breast cancer before January 1, 1992. Data regarding infertility testing and treatment were abstracted from the infertility clinic medical records for women who developed breast cancer and a randomly selected subcohort. Twenty-seven women in the cohort developed in situ or invasive breast cancer, in comparison with an expected number of 28.8 cases (standardized incidence ratio, 0.9; 95% confidence interval (CI), ).6-1.4). Infertile women with evidence of an ovulatory abnormality were at a risk of breast cancer similar to that of women whose infertility was believed to be due to other causes. The risk among women who had taken clomiphene was reduced relative to infertile women who had not used this drug (adjusted relative risk, 0.5; 95% CI, 0.2-1.2), but the reduction in risk did not increase with duration of use. The possibility that use of clomiphene as treatment for infertility lowers the risk of breast cancer should be examined in other, larger studies.

Risk of cutaneous melanoma in a cohort of infertile women.

We assessed the risk of cutaneous malignant melanoma associated with the presence of ovulatory abnormalities and with the use of ovulation-inducing agents (such as clomiphene citrate) in a cohort of 3,837 women evaluated at infertility clinics in Seattle, WA, between 1974 and 1985. Computer linkage with a population-based tumour registry was used to identify women diagnosed with melanoma before 1992. Data regarding infertility testing and treatment were abstracted from the infertility clinic medical records for women who developed cancer and a randomly selected subcohort. Twelve women in the cohort developed cutaneous malignant melanoma, in comparison with an expected number of 6.8 cases (standardized incidence ratio = 1.8; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.9-3.1). Within the cohort, risk was increased among women who had used clomiphene during 12 or more menstrual cycles (relative risk = 2.2; 95% CI 0.5-10.2). All four of the women with this duration of clomiphene use who developed melanoma had ovulatory abnormalities, and three had also used human chorionic gonadotropin (HCG). No elevation in risk associated with the presence of ovulatory abnormalities was observed in the absence of at least 12 cycles of clomiphene exposure; also, there was no increased risk associated with long-term use of clomiphene among women without ovulatory abnormalities, but the number of such women was very small. Thus, it is not certain to what extent the observed increased risk of melanoma in this cohort (if not due to chance) may be attributable to the use of clomiphene or HCG, or is a reflection of some underlying hormonal abnormality for which the drug was administered.

On the catch-up time method for analyzing cancer screening trials.

In randomized cancer screening trials, the ratio of the mortality rate for the screened group to that for the control group is typically not constant as a function of years from randomization. This is due to an initial lag effect, but also to a dilution effect that results from the accrual of comparable cases in both groups after the end of the screening period. In order to combat the potential loss of power when applying conventional analysis tools, specifically the logrank test, Aron and Prorok (International Journal of Epidemiology 15, 36-43), have advocated analyzing the mortality experience using only the subcohort of cases ascertained within a given time period. However, it is not clear how to select an appropriate case ascertainment point, since this will depend on aspects of the natural history of the disease process which are poorly identified. Aron and Prorok suggest choosing the case ascertainment point to be the point at which the cumulative number of cases in the control group first becomes equal to that in the intervention group, that is, the "catch-up time." In this paper, we undertake a thorough evaluation of the bias and power properties of the catch-up time method. We base our study on simulated data resembling the Health Insurance Plan of Greater New York study cohort. We consider several models for postdiagnosis survival under the null hypothesis of no screening effect on mortality, and under the alternative hypothesis of an effect of screening. We show that the catch-up method can yield tests with sizeable bias. In the absence of detailed knowledge about the underlying disease process, we suggest some adaptive tests that maintain nominal size but have more attractive power properties than the standard logrank test.

A likelihood ratio test for cancer screening trials.

In randomized cancer screening trials, mortality rates for the screened group relative to those of the control group are not likely to be constant as a function of years from randomization due to the inherent lag between initiation of screening and any putative effects of screening on mortality. In this situation, a log rank test for differences in mortality between the randomization groups will not be optimal. Although optimality could potentially be recovered by use of a weighted log rank statistic, the optimal weights are difficult to specify a priori and the potential loss of power by use of poorly specified weights is great. We describe a likelihood ratio test with two degrees of freedom for use in this situation which is based on a fit of a weakly structured full model. Computation of an approximate significance level for this test is described and a large sample justification for this approximation is given. Size and power properties of the proposed statistic are compared to that of several other statistics in a small simulation study and the statistic is applied to data from the HIP Breast Cancer Screening Trial.

Design and analysis of cancer screening trials.

This article reviews approaches to the design and analysis of cancer screening trials. After summarizing some basic screening concepts and potential pitfalls, we introduce several possible screening trial designs with examples from the literature. We review in detail methods for analyzing screening trial data, including testing for a significant difference in disease-specific mortality between the control and intervention groups, estimating the mortality differential if one exists, and evaluating the programme lead time, the screen sensitivity and the role of stage shifting. We consider Overall mortality analyses, which are based on the experience of the trial population, and Limited mortality analyses, which are based on the experience of comparable groups of cases in the control and intervention groups. We discuss methods for selecting candidate comparable case groups and confirming that they are in fact comparable. We conclude by showing how the principles discussed have been used in the planning and design of a current screening trial for multiple cancers.

Statistical issues in the design of HIV vaccine trials.

HIV vaccine trials present significant challenges related to trial endpoints, vaccine efficacy measurement, and the role of nonvaccine interventions. Infection is a valid endpoint for detecting sterilizing immunity. But if the vaccine prevents AIDS without preventing infection, infection may be a misleading surrogate. Appropriate endpoints must be defined for other mechanisms of vaccine action. Direct, indirect, behavioral, and biological effects all determine vaccine efficacy. False security among HIV-vaccine recipients may make negative behavioral effects an important component of vaccine performance. Both biological potency and a more comprehensive program effectiveness should be measured. These goals may require unblinded designs or community randomization. Nonvaccine interventions are currently the only HIV-prevention strategy. Support for larger scale implementation requires more rigorous evaluation that is less dependent on self-reported behavioral changes. The vaccine trial cohorts provide a unique opportunity to cost-effectively evaluate behavioral interventions.

Some recent developments for regression analysis of multivariate failure time data.

Cox's seminal 1972 paper on regression methods for possibly censored failure time data popularized the use of time to an event as a primary response in prospective studies. But one key assumption of this and other regression methods is that observations are independent of one another. In many problems, failure times are clustered into small groups where outcomes within a group are correlated. Examples include failure times for two eyes from one person or for members of the same family. This paper presents a survey of models for multivariate failure time data. Two distinct classes of models are considered: frailty and marginal models. In a frailty model, the correlation is assumed to derive from latent variables ("frailties") common to observations from the same cluster. Regression models are formulated for the conditional failure time distribution given the frailties. Alternatively, marginal models describe the marginal failure time distribution of each response while separately modelling the association among responses from the same cluster. We focus on recent extensions of the proportional hazards model for multivariate failure time data. Model formulation, parameter interpretation and estimation procedures are considered.

Ovarian tumors in a cohort of infertile women.

BACKGROUND: Case reports and the results of a recent case-control study have raised questions about the potential neoplastic effects of medications used as treatment for infertility. METHODS: We examined the risk of ovarian tumors in a cohort of 3837 women evaluated for infertility between 1974 and 1985 in Seattle. Computer linkage with a population-based tumor registry was used to identify women in whom tumors were diagnosed before January 1, 1992. Data on infertility testing and treatment were abstracted from the medical records of women who had ovarian cancer and those of a randomly selected comparison group. The risk of ovarian tumors associated with exposure to ovulation-inducing medications was assessed through an age-standardized comparison with the rate of ovarian tumors in the general population, and Cox regression analysis was used to compare the risk of cancer among women who received these medications with the risk among infertile women who did not receive them. RESULTS: There were 11 invasive or borderline malignant ovarian tumors, as compared with an expected number of 4.4 (standardized incidence ratio, 2.5; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.3 to 4.5). Nine of the women in whom ovarian tumors developed had taken clomiphene; the adjusted relative risk among these women, as compared with that among infertile women who had not taken this drug, was 2.3 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.5 to 11.4). Five of the nine women had taken the drug during 12 or more monthly cycles. This period of treatment was associated with an increased risk of ovarian tumors among both women with ovarian abnormalities and those without apparent abnormalities (relative risk, 11.1; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.5 to 82.3), whereas treatment with the drug for less than one year was not associated with an increased risk. CONCLUSIONS: Prolonged use of clomiphene may increase the risk of a borderline or invasive ovarian tumor.

An adaptive weighted log-rank test with application to cancer prevention and screening trials.

A class of adaptive weighted log-rank statistics is described where the vector of weights is chosen in a data-dependent way from a family of "smooth" weight vectors. A parametric family of weight vectors is identified which includes most shapes of weighting vectors that will be near optimal in many cancer prevention and screening trials. This family of weight vectors is used in an application of the proposed method to data from a breast cancer screening trial. Results from a small simulation study comparing the power of the adaptive statistic to that of the unweighted log-rank statistic are presented.

On estimating HLA/disease association with application to a study of aplastic anemia.

A multiplicative model is described relating HLA typing information to disease incidence. A likelihood-based method for estimating parameters in this model is proposed for use with data sets in which HLA haplotype information is available on a series of cases and their parents. This approach is extended to incorporate information from a matched control series for the purpose of estimating HLA and environmental risk factor effects simultaneously. The method is applied to data from aplastic anemia patients treated by bone marrow transplantation and the results are compared to unmatched case-control analyses using the same case series and several different control series.