Tree-rings stable isotope (δ18O and δ2H) based 368 years long term precipitation reconstruction of South Eastern Kashmir Himalaya.

The hydroclimatic variability in Kashmir Himalaya is influenced by the western disturbances and the Indian Summer Monsoon. To investigate long-term hydroclimatic variability, 368 years tree-ring oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios (δ18O and δ2H) extending from 1648 to 2015 CE were analysed. These isotopic ratios are calculated using five core samples of Himalayan silver fir (Abies pindrow) collected from the south-eastern region of Kashmir valley. The relationship between the long and short periodicity components of δ18O and δ2H suggested that physiological processes had a minimum effect on the tree-ring stable isotopes in Kashmir Himalaya. The δ18O chronology was developed based on the average of five-individual tree-ring δ18O time series covering the time span of 1648-2015 CE. The climate response analysis revealed the strongest and most significant negative correlation between tree ring δ18O and precipitation amount from the previous year's December to current year's August (D2Apre). The reconstructed D2Apre (D2Arec) explains precipitation variability from 1671 to 2015 CE and is supported by historical and other proxy-based hydroclimatic records. The reconstruction has two distinguishing features: first, it is characterized by stable wet conditions during the last phase of Little Ice Age (LIA) i.e., from 1682 to 1841 CE; and second, the southeast Kashmir Himalaya had experienced drier conditions as compared to recent and historical period with intense pluvial events since 1850. The present reconstruction shows, there have been more extreme dry events than extreme wet events since 1921. A tele-connection is observed between D2Arec and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) of the Westerly region.

Climatically driven yield variability of major crops in Khakassia (South Siberia).

We investigated the variability of yield of the three main crop cultures in the Khakassia Republic: spring wheat, spring barley, and oats. In terms of yield values, variability characteristics, and climatic response, the agricultural territory of Khakassia can be divided into three zones: (1) the Northern Zone, where crops yield has a high positive response to the amount of precipitation, May-July, and a moderately negative one to the temperatures of the same period; (2) the Central Zone, where crops yield depends mainly on temperatures; and (3) the Southern Zone, where climate has the least expressed impact on yield. The dominant pattern in the crops yield is caused by water stress during periods of high temperatures and low moisture supply with heat stress as additional reason. Differences between zones are due to combinations of temperature latitudinal gradient, precipitation altitudinal gradient, and the presence of a well-developed hydrological network and the irrigational system as moisture sources in the Central Zone. More detailed analysis shows differences in the climatic sensitivity of crops during phases of their vegetative growth and grain development and, to a lesser extent, during harvesting period. Multifactor linear regression models were constructed to estimate climate- and autocorrelation-induced variability of the crops yield. These models allowed prediction of the possibility of yield decreasing by at least 2-11% in the next decade due to increasing of the regional summer temperatures.

Past crops yield dynamics reconstruction from tree-ring chronologies in the forest-steppe zone based on low- and high-frequency components.

Interrelations of the yield variability of the main crops (wheat, barley, and oats) with hydrothermal regime and growth of conifer trees (Pinus sylvestris and Larix sibirica) in forest-steppes were investigated in Khakassia, South Siberia. An attempt has been made to understand the role and mechanisms of climatic impact on plants productivity. It was found that amongst variables describing moisture supply, wetness index had maximum impact. Strength of climatic response and correlations with tree growth are different for rain-fed and irrigated crops yield. Separated high-frequency variability components of yield and tree-ring width have more pronounced relationships between each other and with climatic variables than their chronologies per se. Corresponding low-frequency variability components are strongly correlated with maxima observed after 1- to 5-year time shift of tree-ring width. Results of analysis allowed us to develop original approach of crops yield dynamics reconstruction on the base of high-frequency variability component of the growth of pine and low-frequency one of larch.

A village possessed by "witches": a mixed-methods case-control study of possession and common mental disorders in rural Nepal.

In Nepal, spirit possession is a common phenomenon occurring both in individuals and in groups. To identify the cultural contexts and psychosocial correlates of spirit possession, we conducted a mixed-method study in a village in central Nepal experiencing a cluster of spirit possession events. The study was carried out in three stages: (1) a pilot study consisting of informal interviews with possessed individuals, observations of the possession spells, and video recording of possession events; (2) a case-control study comparing the prevalence of symptoms of common mental disorders in women who had and had not experienced possession; and (3) a follow-up study with focus group discussions and in-depth interviews with possessed and non-possessed men and women, and key informants. Quantitative results indicated that possessed women reported higher rates of traumatic events and higher levels of symptoms of mental disorder compared to non-possessed women (Anxiety 68 vs. 18 %, Depression 41 vs. 19 %, and PTSD 27 vs. 0 %). However, qualitative interviews with possessed individuals, family members, and traditional healers indicated that they did not associate possession states with mental illness. Spirit possession was viewed as an affliction that provided a unique mode of communication between humans and spirits. As such, it functioned as an idiom of distress that allowed individuals to express suffering related to mental illness, socio-political violence, traumatic events, and the oppression of women. The study results clearly indicate that spirit possession is a multi-dimensional phenomenon that cannot be mapped onto any single psychiatric or psychological diagnostic category or construct. Clinical and public health efforts to address spirit possession must take the socio-cultural context and systemic dynamics into account to avoid creating iatrogenic illness, undermining coping strategies, and exacerbating underlying social problems.